Schedule Breakdown: Mississippi State
Posted by hoopsknowitall on September 13, 2007
Predicted wins and losses, with wins in bold and losses italicized.
vs. Louisiana Tech
vs. Clemson
vs. Tennessee-Martin
vs. UC-Irvine – Anaheim Classic (Anaheim, CA)
vs. Southern Illinois/Chattanooga – Anaheim Classic (Anaheim, CA)
vs. TBA – Anaheim Classic (Anaheim, CA)
vs. Murray State
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
vs. Miami (FL)
@ South Alabama
@ Loyola Marymount
@ Texas A&M Corpus-Christi
vs. Missouri
vs. Lafayette College – Jackson, MS
————————————
@ LSU
vs. Georgia
vs. Kentucky
@ Alabama
vs. Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
vs. Tennessee
vs. Alabama
@ Auburn
vs. Arkansas
@ Ole Miss
@ South Carolina
vs. Auburn
@ Florida
@ Vanderbilt
vs. LSU
After close research, I’ve come up with a (26-4) and (13-3) record for the Bulldogs. State’s schedule suits them extremely well this coming season, only travelling to USC, a rebuilding Florida, and a Byars-less Vanderbilt while owning home-court advantage to a Kentucky team MSU played to a four-point game in Lexington a year ago, SEC-favorite Tennessee, and an improved Georgia team.
The schedule suits up well for MSU, and the Bulldogs should be challenging Tennessee for the SEC title as well as a seed in the NCAA Tournament as high as a 1-3 seed.
D.L. Brown said
I am a big State fan, alum, former Sports Editor for the Refelctor, etc…
This is a great schedule for the Bulldogs, but MSU teams never make things easy. The second round matchup in Anaheim vs Southern Illinois will be a good early measuring stick. The Missouri game could also be tough. I would not count a road wins at Auburn, LSU, Vanderbilt, and Florida just yet. I can see the Dawgs winning the SEC West with anywhere from 10-6 to 12-4. They have the skills to be that good.
Great page, guy!
hoopsknowitall said
Thanks for the compliment, share the link!
(A) State swept LSU with Davis, no reason why they won’t without him.
(B) Florida is completely rebuilding, and State will be that much more experienced that far into the season. With that said, it could be a difficult game.
(C) Vanderbilt is a wild-card, but I fully expect Ogilvy to be overrated and Foster won’t be enough to make up for the loss of both Cage and Byars.
(D) Auburn: See LSU.
(E) I agree about Southern Illinois, but it’s a should-win game for the Bulldogs. USC is a 50/50, so I gave the loss considering that I see very few losses for the Bulldogs this season.
Hope this clarifies the reasoning!
Gabby said
Extreme? A tiny bit, but I understand your schedule logic.
In regard to MSU meeting The OJ Mayo led USC in the Anaheim Tournament, forget about it. The Bulldogs have no shot! Don’t you realize Mayo has a +18 agility and a +20 harmful spell reversal?!?!
Geez, Durant and Oden didn’t even get that much hype.
hoopsknowitall said
Oden did, but I see your point. Mayo is very popular with the talking heads, but we shall see just how good the young man is.
No prediction can be too “extreme”, especially considering it’s predicting a perennially competitive team to be very competitive any given season. Given that, plus an extremely favorable schedule (both OOC and SEC), I see very few espected losses for the Bulldogs.
MSU could drop some they shouldn’t, but then again – so could anyone. It’s all speculation at this point.
mstateglfr said
dang man, thats quite the lofty view of us this year.
if we end up 14-2 in conference play and losing only 1 game preconference, we will be in the top 5-8 nationally.
itd be great to see, but i wont hold my breath.
Jeff said
I think MSU will be good, but thinking they’ll be this good is absurd.
hoopsknowitall said
Look at the schedule before you make judgements. With who MSU plays, and who they play at home, it’s just tough to give them too many more losses than what I’ve put them at.
Jeff said
I did look at the schedule before I made judgements, thanks for the tip though. They aren’t going to beat both Vandy and Florida on the road that late in the season–they could possibly lose to both. Also, I don’t think they will beat Tennessee no matter where they play them. Furthermore, they probably should go undefeated in the non-conference because they play no one on the road, but I think they might drop a game somewhere along the line.
No matter what, they aren’t going any 27-3.
hoopsknowitall said
Vanderbilt will be a tough game, as will Florida. However State will be just as improved from a maturity sense as those two teams will be, and I see no reason not to favor a then-ranked-around-10 or 15th State squad over either team, even on the road.
And if you are arguing that NO team will beat Tennessee, even the SEC Western Division champion at home, you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Remember, this same State team played Tennessee within a point with a minute to go @ Tennessee last season.
Jeff said
I didn’t say no one was beating Tennessee–where did I say that? Let me find it…oh wait, it’s not there.
First off, stop using last year’s results as something that matters this year. The Vols had one of the best freshman forwards in the country last season in Tyler Smith, and their freshmen starters will be a year older and smarter. Furthermore, MSU lost a couple of key players from last year–so last year’s results don’t mean anything.
Secondly, are you calling MSU the SEC Western Division champion this year? Or last year? If it’s this year, they won’t win the West; if it’s last year, just look at the paragraph above.
Jeff said
By the way, there is no way Mississippi State will be favored AT Florida that late in the season. There’s absolutely no way–even if they are ranked No. 15. I would say the same for Vandy, but more so Florida, unless both teams are way way below expectations.
hoopsknowitall said
State loses two extremely inconsistent players that will be replaced with all-SEC freshmen. To say State “won’t win the West” is a joke.
We all have our opinions, that’s what a blog is for.
Jeff said
How is it a joke? And then in the next sentence, you say “we all have our opinions.”
By the way, what all-SEC freshmen are we talking about? No freshmen are going to be in the top six, so I can’t see any making the all-freshmen team.
hoopsknowitall said
Barry Stewart and Ben Hansbrough were both All-SEC freshmen last season.
Jeff said
Yeah I know, but those guys are just replacing them in the starting lineup…the MSU depth is going to take a hit, though, I think.
hoopsknowitall said
Let’s not forget State loses two streaky players and one solidly reliable one (Slater), but adds two guys with a year of the program digested (Turner, Johnson), adds Hansbrough and Stewart into the starting lineup, along with three Top 150 freshmen.
hoopsknowitall said
If anyone’s curious…I have changed things a wee bit due to Alabama losing Steele. Making the @ Alabama game a win left State with two losses, which I deemed unrealistic. Thus, I’ve added losses @ Vanderbilt and @ Florida, both of which State should be favored in, however.
Dunbar said
Knowitall, you let me down. I read these comments and I was proud the way you defended your predicitons for Miss State. Then, what do you do, ive us a win at AL (which is understandable) but then turn around and give us two losses, probably just to please your detractors. **Disappointed**
hoopsknowitall said
I understand your feelings, but my changes have not been affected by anyone’s thoughts except my own, and it will always be that way.
By changing the Alabama loss to a win, it would have given MSU only 2 losses on the season, which I see as too much to expect. Thus, I had to find one or two other games which are the most loseable, which were @ Vandy and @ Florida – both games which I see are very winnable for State.
The sky will be the limit for the Bulldogs, but it will be up to them to make the most of it.
Isaac said
How can you say Ole Miss has a weak Non conference schedule when the only team you play that’s tougher than that is Mizzou? Clemson- Ole Miss plays, USA-Ole Miss plays. Say what you want about Pres. College but Lafayette College isn’t much better
hoopsknowitall said
I am not representing any certain team on this blog – this is SEC, not any specific team.
When I comment on each individual team, I am comparing them to my standards only – not any other certain teams.
Maybe if you actually had been reading the blog, you’d know this already.
Isaac said
Ok then why do you not make the same comment about Miss St’s schedule?
hoopsknowitall said
Have you actually read the post?
“Mississippi State’s pre-conference slate is relatively unimpressive.”
And State plays in the Anaheim Tournament, where they could meet the likes of Southern Illinois and Southern California.
Isaac said
Point taken
ATB: « Rush the Court said
[...] S.Illinois 63, Mississippi St. 49. Paging SEC:TGTBTD, didn’t you guys predict 26-4 for MSU? You’ve got two [...]
hoopsknowitall said
Not everyone can be right all the time. You, a blogger, of all people should know that. Predictions are like buttholes…
With that said, you’re jumping to conclusions. There’s a lot of basketball to be played.
ATB: Weekend Wrap « Rush the Court said
[...] St. 88, #15 Ole Miss 68. MSU is starting to look a little like that team SEC:TGTBTD predicted back in [...]