Wednesday games…

…will be recapped tomorrow, along with odds for Saturday. Appologies – ya know how life goes sometimes.

Tuesday game…

Overall: 115-23 (83.3%)
Vs. Spread: 49-38 (56.3%)
Overall (SEC): 22-5 (81.5%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 16-11 (59.3%)
East vs. West: East, 8-3

(12-9, 1-5) Alabama [86] vs. (18-2, 5-1) #3 Tennessee [93]: Tennessee hit every clutch free throw, every big-time three, and forced 20 ‘Bama turnovers (despite 23 of their own) to pull away in the end of this game. Alabama managed to force their own tempo in the first half, which ended tied 33-33. However, the Vols pushed the ball up and down court in the second half, which favored their much more athletic team by a great deal. Each team seemed to have two stars who made big plays, those being Lofton and Jujuan Smith for the Vols and Gee and Hendrix for the Tide. Lofton recorded his second-straight impressive outing, shooting 5-of-9 from behind the arc for 23 points while Jujuan Smith hit 8-of-13 from the floor for 22. Tyler Smith also had a big game, bringing down 17 points and 11 rebounds for his third double-double as a Volunteer. Alonzo Gee was spectacular in the loss, hitting 10-of-17 from the floor, 9 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Hendrix simply couldn’t break the Vols interior defense to handle the ball enough without turning the ball over, but still shot 9-of-12 from the floor and claimed his 11th double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are very nearly out of the race for the West, even with an undefeated record from here on. A 7-5 or 8-4 record here on out will be necessary to be in contention for an NIT bid.
Impact [Tennessee]: Winning tough road games is always a boost long-term, but that all-too familiar “hangover” effect could linger, and the Vols don’t have time for that as they now travel to one of their main competitors for the SEC title: Mississippi State. The Vols will need to stay focused on the road.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s impressive +9 rebound advantage

Wednesday odds…

Overall: 114-23 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 48-38 (55.8%)
Overall (SEC): 21-5 (80.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 15-11 (57.7%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(9-10, 1-4) South Carolina [#128] vs. (11-6, 2-2) Georgia [#96]
Spread: South Carolina by 2.5
Pick: South Carolina – Although the Bulldogs have played relatively well on the road, the Gamecocks are better than their record suggests.
—Keys: USC’s three-point shooting – the Gamecocks rank 2nd in the league in 3PT%…if they’re falling, it could be a long night for Georgia.

(15-3, 2-3) #15 Ole Miss [#14] vs. (17-3, 2-3) #16 Vanderbilt [#13]
Spread: Ole Miss by 5.5
Pick: Ole Miss – Similar styles of play favors the home team, and Vanderbilt has been terrible on the road.
—Keys: Turnovers – the Rebels can force them and the ‘Dores tend to give a lot of them up on the road. Which formerly undefeated team will prove its worth against the other?

(12-6, 2-3) Auburn [#124] vs. (7-12, 0-5) LSU [#213]
Spread: Auburn by 5
Pick: Auburn – LSU is simply awful. Absolutely awful.
—Keys: An Auburn loss would put them solidly outside the race for the West, with a team already 5-0 in the division. Will the Aubies choke?

(14-5, 3-2) Arkansas [#46] vs. (14-5, 5-0) Mississippi State [#52]
Spread: Arkansas by 2
Pick: Arkansas – This was a tough pick, but with both teams relying heavily on their defense, the game should be close – and as my saying goes, close games favor the home team.
—Keys: Mississippi State’s young bench will need to play as well on the road as they have at home, and the Razorbacks will need to find a solid replacement for suspended Charles Thomas.

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 114-23 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 48-38 (55.8%)
Overall (SEC): 21-5 (80.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 15-11 (57.7%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(12-8, 1-4) Alabama [#94] vs. (17-2, 4-1) #3 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 4
Pick: Tennessee – Although this should be a surprisingly competitive game, the Vols should cover four points.
—Keys: The Tide play a physical game which could put the Vols on their heels while on the road. If this is a close game, the game will favor Tennessee, as Alabama shoots a league-worst 59.2% from the charity stripe.

Wirth Value: Week Twelve

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (53.14, NC)
2. Tennessee (48.36, +1)
3. Florida (44.19, +1)
4. Ole Miss (44.13, -2)
5. Alabama (35.15, NC)
6. Arkansas (31.08, NC)
7. Kentucky (26.08, +2)
8. Miss. State (26.03, NC)
9. South Carolina (25.20, -2)
10. Auburn (20.72, +1)
11. Georgia (18.47, -1)
12. LSU (8.75, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (51.33, NC)
2. Arkansas (48.38, NC)
3. Georgia (38.70, NC)
4. Kentucky (36.77, +2)
5. Tennessee (36.74, NC)
6. Florida (34.38, -2)
7. Ole Miss (24.03, +1)
8. LSU (23.06, -1)
9. South Carolina (20.74, NC)
9. Alabama (17.78, +2)
10. Vanderbilt (17.19, NC)
12. Auburn (16.65, -2)

Overall

1. Tennessee (124.23, NC)
2. Florida (117.10, +1)
3. Ole Miss (110.41, -1)
4. Miss. State (100.79, +2)
5. Arkansas (97.64, NC)
6. Vanderbilt (94.92, -2)
7. Alabama (73.83, +1)
8. Kentucky (71.98, +2)
9. South Carolina (64.97, -2)
10. Georgia (64.78, -1)
11. Auburn (49.43, NC)
12. LSU (34.65, NC)

—Plenty of movement in all of the rankings this week, as some teams are on fire (see; Miss. State), some teams are improving (see; Kentucky), and some teams are sliding (see; Vanderbilt, South Carolina).

—Mississippi State is the hottest team in the SEC at 14-5 and 5-0 in the conference, and it’s showing in the rankings, as they raise two spots overall.

—Kentucky is playing much more efficiently in taking down both Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The major question will be hanging over the Wildcats for the remainder of the season…at 9-9 overall, is it too little too late for postseason play?

—The offensive numbers for the so-far impressive Ole Miss Rebels slid after a 20-point walloping by MSU and being held to their lowest point total of the season: 68 points.

—South Carolina has fallen to 1-4 after an impressive win at Arkansas, and coincidingly is falling in the rankings.

Pomeroy Ratings Week Twelve prediction…

These numbers come from Ken Pomeroy’s “Pomeroy Ratings“. I will post the Wirth Values for this week as soon as possible…likely tonight.

East

1. [#13] Tennessee (26-5, 13-3)
2. [#33] Florida (24-7, 11-5)
3. [#52] Kentucky (15-14, 9-7)
4. [#59] Vanderbilt (22-9, 7-9)
5. [#94] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)
5. [#76] South Carolina (14-16, 6-10)

West

1. [#26] Mississippi State (22-9, 13-3)
2. [#46] Arkansas (20-10, 9-7)
2. [#40] Ole Miss (23-7, 9-7)
4. [#90] Alabama (17-14, 6-10)
5. [#140] Auburn (15-14, 5-11)
6. [#139] LSU (9-21, 2-14)

SEC Overall Title: Mississippi State, Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Percentage Chance Of No More Losses

1. Mississippi State – 1.01%

Sunday game…

Overall: 114-23 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 48-38 (55.8%)
Overall (SEC): 21-5 (80.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 15-11 (57.7%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(18-3, 5-1) Florida [86] vs. (17-3, 2-3) #16 Vanderbilt [64]: Apparently this was blowout weekend, as all but one (maybe two, depending on if you count Arkansas’ 16-point win a blowout) of this weekend’s games were lopsided. The Gators absolutely dominated the Commodores, who have struggled against SEC competition. Neither team shot well from behind the arc – which was more than a little surprising – but the Gators’ excellent ball distribution was far too much for the ‘Dores defense (or lack thereof). Foster was held to what was easily his lowest point total of the season with only a very human 7 points on 3-of-9 shooting. Ogivly was comparative, hitting only 2-of-8 shots from the floor and turning the ball over 5 times. Five Gators pulled down double digits, led by Hodge’s 19 points. Calathes recorded his second double-double as a Gator in the form of 15 points, 10 assists, and only 2 turnovers. Werner tacked on 14 points and 9 rebounds while Speights added 12 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are off to a surprising 5-1 start to the season. With this blowout of a ranked opponent at home, it’s time to treat Florida as a serious contender for the overall SEC title.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores will now be looking to find their identity. With three conference losses in the first five games, two of them blowouts, Vandy isn’t looking like a threat in the East.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 26:10 (2.6:1) assist-to-turnover ratio

Saturday games, Sunday odds…

Overall: 113-23 (83.1%)
Vs. Spread: 47-38 (55.3%)
Overall (SEC): 20-5 (80.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 14-11 (56.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(9-9, 3-2) Kentucky [78] vs. (9-10, 1-4) South Carolina [70]: Ramel Bradley recorded his first double-double of the season in this win with 26 points and 10 rebounds. The Wildcats heavily outshot and outrebounded the Gamecocks, but turned the ball over 7 more times and allowed USC to attempt 14 more shots, explaining the close score. Patrick Patterson shook off his slow start to the SEC season in the form of 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks. South Carolina was wildly unidimensional as Downey, Fredrick, and Archie combined for 71% of USC’s attempts from the floor. Downey dominated the Gamecocks’ stats, scoring 24 points on 10-of-20 shooting and dishing out 7 assists to only 2 turnovers.
Impact [Kentucky]: The win keeps up the small amount of momentum the Wildcats have managed, and puts them on the good side of .500 in SEC play. However, Kentucky will need at least an 8-3 mark in the remaining regular-season games and a win or two in the conference tournament to even be considered for the NCAA’s.
Impact [South Carolina]: The NIT seems to be the main realistic goal for the Gamecocks, and this loss won’t set them back far from that goal. However, a huge run in a tough division will be required to be in contention.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 23 free throws attempted versus USC’s 3

(12-8, 1-4) Alabama [97] vs. (12-6, 2-3) Auburn [77]: In what would be the Tide’s most efficient offensive outing of the season, five Tide members recorded at least 16 points. The statistics of this blowout are surprisingly similar for each of the teams, except for Alabama attempting many more shots due to only turning the ball over 4 times and forcing 15 Auburn turnovers. Richard Hendrix hit 8-of-11 shots to lead all ‘Bama players with 20 points and 8 rebounds, while Jemison, Riley, and Gee each brought down 7 rebounds. Hollinger had his stroke going, shooting 6-of-9 from long range. Prowell and Barrett provided 42 of the Tigers’ points on a combined 15-of-24 shooting effort, though only one other Auburn member scored as many as 10.
Impact [Alabama]: If the Tide hopes to see any postseason play, this game must serve as a turnaround point in intensity for players such as Hollinger, Pickett, and Hillman. If Alabama is looking to challenge for the Western Division, losing too many more games isn’t an option.
Impact [Auburn]: Losing to your rival by 20 always hurts momentum. After getting LSU at home, the Tigers go on a brutal stretch that will literally define their season – a win over LSU will be a must.
Stat of the Game: Alabama attempting 15 more shots than Auburn

(14-5, 5-0) Mississippi State [88] vs. (15-3, 2-3) #15 Ole Miss [68]: In the surprise of the weekend, the Bulldogs manhandled the visiting Rebels. The Rebels are young and playing on the road and MSU has an enormous amount of momentum – it was a recipe for a blowout. After suffering an ankle injury a week or two ago, senior Charles Rhodes matched his career high in the game with 26 points on an impressive 12-of-14 shooting performance and grabbed six rebounds. Gordon claimed a mere 13 points but dished out 6 assists while turning the ball over only 1 time. Freshmen Riley Benock and Elgin Bailey each set new season highs with 12 and 8 points respectively, Benock hitting 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. Curtis was the only bright spot for the Rebels, as he hit 7-of-11 shots for 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season. Freshman phenom Chris Warren managed 15 points but shot 5-of-20 from the field, including 2-of-10 from long range. Despite attempting 16 more shots, the Rebels uncharacteristically shot very poorly in the game – as most teams have against MSU.
Impact [Miss. State]: One down, two to go. With all the momentum, now the Bulldogs travel to Fayetteville to face Arkansas followed by a home bout with #3 Tennessee. With attention growing on a nationa scale, how will MSU react with a conference title potentially on the line?
Impact [Ole Miss]: After suffering what was easily their worst loss of the season, the Rebels have no time to linger as #16 Vanderbilt comes to town. With such a young team, this loss could sting. The Rebels are still in the thick of things in the West, but MSU at home will be a must-win.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s 56.7% to 36.8% shooting advantage

(17-2, 4-1) #3 Tennessee [85] vs. (11-6, 2-2) Georgia [69]: Chris Lofton has finally done it. He’s finally had a big game and his team actually won. Lofton brought down 27 points on 9-of-17 shooting, including 7-of-13 from three. Tyler Smith was the only other Vol in double figures, scoring 17 on 7-of-9 shooting, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists (but 7 turnovers). Georgia’s three-point reliance proved their downfall, as they shot well from the field but only 4-of-22 (18.2%) from long range. Gaines still had a good game, notching 20 points on 9-of-17 shooting, while Bliss and Humphrey had 15 points apiece. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, no other player managed more than 6.
Impact [Tennessee]: This game serves as a warm-up before road trips to Alabama and Mississppi State. The @ MSU game could end up having overall SEC title implications.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little – the Bulldogs can still compete for a postseason bid if they can muster some wins on the road, but can’t lose many more if they expect to compete for the East.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 26 assists to Georgia’s 11

(7-12, 0-5) LSU [52] vs. (14-5, 3-2) Arkansas [68]: This game truly was about who wanted to lose more. After building a substantial lead, the Razorbacks let the Tigers storm back and compete before the ‘Backs would put them away into the second half. Neither team shot particularly well, although Arkansas was on fire from three, hitting 10-of-15 (66.7%) shots from beyond the arc. Beverly has apparently decided to make up for his slumping shooting with his rebounding numbers, as he grabbed a game-high 15 in this game along with 14 points for his second double-double of the season. Weems hit a perfect 5-of-5 from three to score a game-high 21 points and 7 rebounds. Only three Tigers scored more than 2 points, while Thornton led those with 20 points on 7-of-20 shooting.
Impact [LSU]: At this point, the Tigers should be focusing on saving face, as the postseason is out of contention without a miracle run in the conference tournament.
Impact [Arkansas]: The road win should help confidence on the road, and the ‘Backs will need it if they expect to compete for the division. The next game will be Mississippi State at home, which should be a win to build from for both teams.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 19.2% three-point shooting

Sunday Odds

(17-3, 4-1) Florida [#54] vs. (17-2, 2-2) #16 Vanderbilt [#11]
Spread: Florida by 5
Pick: Florida – Both teams play well offensively, and a matchup of similar styles often favors the home team.

Conference Report

With March quickly approaching, I thought this as good a time as any to break down each team in the conference, their remaining games, and their postseason outlook.

ALABAMA (11-8, 0-4)

Analysis: The Crimson Tide’s slow start to SEC play is due in large part to a lack of a third scoring option. Hendrix is still my pick for the best overall player in the SEC, averaging 19.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, and Gee is talented but often too out of control (1.2 assists to 2.1 turnovers per game). Gee’s main problem can’t be seen on the stat sheet, which is fundamentally poor decision-making – the guy is selfish. If the ball is in his hand, he’s going to shoot it one way or another and this is taking its toll on the rest of the team. Riley has spurts of hot shooting and has proven to be a threat from beyond the arc (42.4%) and yet he’s only averaging 13.1 points per game.

Gameplan: Limit Gee’s possessions and increase Riley’s by double, keeping Hendrix as the main anchor for the team. The plan should be to get the ball to Hendrix down low every time, with a kickout to Riley when the defense collapses. Utilize Gee on fastbreaks and when a lane opens up.

Schedule

vs. Auburn (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)

Prediction: (15-16, 4-12)

Postseason: The Tide would need to make the finals of the SEC tournament to make the NIT (2 or 3 seed), and only a win would grant them an NCAA bid (albeit as a 9 or 10 seed).

AUBURN (12-5, 2-2)

Analysis: Honestly, there’s no reason for Auburn not to compete this season. The Tigers’ efficiencies (both offensive and defensive) are miserable despite an experienced squad that was one W away from a Western Division title a year ago. The team can find offense occasionally (see; vs. Ole Miss) and are one of the best in the conference at forcing turnovers, but the lack of size hurts rebounding and their reliance on a three-ball that they do not shoot well limits any momentum they may find.

Gameplan: Use the team’s speed to your advantage – trap more. Slow down the opponents’ offense and make them work to score. The Tigers also need to create an offensive scheme that opens up Barber or Prowell in the paint, as Auburn’s field goal percentage is one of the best in the conference despite ranking 10th in three-point shooting. Barrett is taking entirely too many threes to only be hitting 32.9% of them.

Schedule

@ Alabama (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
vs. Miss. State (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
@ Arkansas (L)

Prediction: (16-13, 6-10)

Postseason: The Tigers would need to win in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the SEC Tournament to hope for an NIT bid (as a 4 or 5 seed), and winning the conference tournament would be the only vessel to the NCAA’s (as a 9 or 10 seed).

ARKANSAS (13-5, 2-2)

Analysis: Although sound defensively, the days are over in which this team could simply ride on the shoulders of hot shooting by Patrick Beverly. Beverly has slowed down a bit, hitting only 40.6% from the field and 36.5% from behind the arc. Not bad, mind you, but that’s not going to be enough to supply the entire team with offense. Beverly is also posting alarmingly high numbers of rebounds (5.9 per game), and when a shot guard is focusing that heavily on rebounding the ball it serves to purpose that his shot will be off. Although noone has really proven to be a three-point threat out of this team, Weems has stepped up with high percentages from the floor and leads the team in scoring (13.5ppg) although he tends to turn the ball over (3.4 per game).

Gameplan: The Razorbacks need to be focusing more heavily on an inside game offensively, as the guards are not as consistent as they need to be from beyond the arc. Townes, Thomas, and Washington are more than enough down low to rely on to score, with an occasional kickout to Beverly or drive by Weems. Although Hill isn’t nearly aggressive or nimble enough with the ball offensively, he’s a pretty consistent shooter from the paint – don’t be afraid to have him on the floor because not many in the conference can get to the basket with him down low.

Schedule

@ LSU (W)
vs. Miss. State (W)
vs. Florida (W)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (W)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. Auburn (W)

Prediction: (19-13, 8-8)

Postseason: With an already-decent RPI, the Razorbacks would be squarely on the bad side of the NCAA bubble with a one-and-done in the SEC tournament. A win would put them on the good side, and two would solidify their bid as a low seed (9-10).

FLORIDA (17-3, 4-1)

Analysis: As young and talented as the Gators are, they play little defense. At home the hot shooting could be enough, but Florida will need to find some “D” if they hope to seriously compete in the East with Tennessee and Vanderbilt (and Kentucky?). So far, the team’s only conference loss was a two-point loss on the road to #15 Ole Miss – not bad at all. The Gators share the ball well and are towards the top of most statistical categories – but, much of that was against far, far weaker competition. Nick Calathes, possible front-runner for SEC Freshman of the Year, is the spark plug for this year’s UF team, recording 16.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists to only 2.8 turnovers so far this season. Impressive – especially for a freshman. Speights has been the other go-to guy, all of his coming from the paint where he averages 64.4% from the field along with 7.8 rebounds.

Gameplan: Focus on defense. The Gators need to harass their opponents more (dead last in the conference in steals per game) and keep shooting well. Remember, defense creates offense.

Schedule

vs. #16 Vanderbilt (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. LSU (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Georgia (W)
vs. Miss. State (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (W)
@ Kentucky (L)

Prediction: (23-8, 10-6)

Postseason: This record should easily put the Gators into the NCAA’s. Each win in the SEC tournament would equate to about one seed in the NCAA tournament, starting out at an 8 or 7 seed.

GEORGIA (11-5, 2-1)

Analyis: The Bulldogs’ defense has been solid, but the team doesn’t have the depth to create any offense. The squad is near the bottom in all percentage categories, and dead last in assist-to-turnover ratio. Noone outside of Humphrey can find any stroke, as Humphrey is hitting 43.7% from the floor and 41.6% from long range. Humphrey, of course, leads the team with 14.1 points per contest and Gaines follows that up with 12.8 points, although he’s taking too many threes (second-most on the team and hitting only 27.1%). Price is the offensive inside man and Bliss is the defensive, as Price scores 9.6 points per outing and Bliss grabs 4.6 rebounds and has a decent amount of blocks as well.

Gameplan: Give Humphrey more touches. The guy plays hard and he’s accurate – use him to extend the defense and give Price looks on the inside. Keep up the hard-nosed defense and take better care of the ball.

Schedule

@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Kentucky (W)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Florida (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)

Prediction: (14-15, 5-11)

Postseason: The Bulldogs would need to make the finals of the SEC tournament for a 4 or 5 seed in the NIT, and win it to make a 9 or 10 seed in the NCAA’s.

KENTUCKY (8-9, 2-2)

Analysis: As statistically-oriented as I may be, I can still see the Wildcats’ main problem – chemistry. New faces, injuries, and a new coach has equated to an early-season stumbling, but Kentucky has looked much more competitive as of late in wins against #3 Tennessee and #16 Vanderbilt, along with hard-fought road losses to Mississippi State and Florida. Kentucky’s main problem comes from a lack of experienced depth on offense. The ‘Cats play tight defense but noone outside of Bradley and Crawford can score with any consistency from the guard position. Meeks has a game here and there, but there’s a black hole in the roster beyond that. Patterson has been an amazing presence inside as a freshman, leading the team with 16.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game along with shooting 57.8% from the field. If this guy stays all four years, he will be another Richard Hendrix.

Gameplan: Regardless of how difficult this may be to do, find another reliable scoring option. Meeks needs to step up now that he’s returned and become the threat that he has the potential to be. The bench (Jasper, Stevenson, Harris, Porter, Coury) all need to work on their chemistry with each other and running offensive sets. I’d try starting Stevenson alongside Patterson to see if a 3-2 lineup would limit some of the glaring holes in talented guard depth facing the Wildcats.

Schedule

vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Georgia (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Prediction: (16-13, 10-6)

Postseason: Despite going 10-6 in the conference, the Wildcats would need at least two wins in the SEC tournament to even be considered for the NCAA tournament. Kentucky is set for a unique problem – it seems to be NCAA or bust. With an overall record of 16-13, it does not seem as if the NIT would opt for the Wildcats – but if the ‘Cats can get into contention for an NIT bid, they would also be in contention for an NCAA bid because of their quality in-conference record. One win would be a very low seed in the NIT (6 or 7), two wins would be a 10 seed in the NCAA’s, making the finals would be a 8 or 9 seed, and winning the SEC tournament would likely hand the ‘Cats a 7 or 8 seed.

LSU (7-11, 0-4)

Analysis: The Tigers aren’t doing much of anything well. Their defense isn’t horrible, but their offense is the worst the SEC has seen in quite some time. Despite some big names (Randolph, Temple, Mitchell, Martin), LSU has surprisingly little depth and are simply not executing. Thornton has been everything offensively for LSU, recording an average of 18.7 points per game, but taking 15.5 shots per game and only hitting 41.2%. Randolph has a higher 46.5 percentage and blocks a league-second 2.4 shots per game, along with collecting 8.6 rebounds per contest. Center Chris Johnson seems to be a hidden star, as he shoots 62.1% and grabs 4.8 rebounds in only 27.3 minutes, yet he’s only played in 13 games this season.

Gameplan: Develop the bench and limit Thornton. He’s talented, but the scoring attack needs to be more balanced than any one player attempting 15.5 shots per game. Play Johnson more, get him the ball, and get Martin, Temple, and Mitchell more playing time.

Schedule

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Auburn (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Florida (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (L)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Miss. State (L)

Prediction: I know it’s extreme, but I can’t see a W in the remaining schedule. (7-23, 0-16)

Postseason: None, outside of a miracle win of the SEC tournament, in which case the Tigers would still get a 12-16 seed.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (13-5, 4-0)

Analysis: MSU has turned up the defensive heat lately and as a result remains the only undefeated team in SEC play. Jamont Gordon will be in the argument for SEC Player of the Year with his 17.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game and Jarvis Varnado will be in the mix for All-SEC First Team as he easily leads the nation in blocks per game (5.2). Varnado, or “Swat”, seems to alter even more shots than he blocks, as opponents’ inside games (with the exception of Alabama’s Hendrix) have crumbled under him as he also ranks second in the conference with 8.7 rebounds per game (behind – you guessed it, Hendrix). MSU ranks 2nd in the nation in blocks per game and field-goal percentage defense. The team’s glaring weakness seems to be free throw shooting, as the team ranks 11th out of 12 with an abysmal average of 59.8%. Also, the Bulldogs take too many threes (385) due to their 33.2% team average from long range.

Gameplan: Maximize Varnado’s playing time (only averaging 25.9 minutes per game – imagine if he played 35) and limit the threes. Take more time offensively to get the ball to the post or open a lane for Gordon. And hit. free. throws. No excuse for making less than 70%, much less 60%.

Schedule

vs. #15 Ole Miss (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (W)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Prediction: (21-9, 12-4)

Postseason: This record should easily hand MSU an NCAA bid. In the SEC tournament…No wins (8 seed), One win (7 seed), Two wins (5 seed), Overall win (4 seed).

#15 OLE MISS (15-2, 2-2)

Analysis: The Rebels characteristically have not been able to pull out games on the road due to their youth. Still a very well-coached and talented team, the Rebels are one of (if not the single) most efficient offensive teams in the conference, but the defense is lacking – another trait of young teams. The Rebels rebound surprisingly well for their youth and shoot well, but will not match up well against the defensive teams in the West such as Arkansas and Mississippi State. Chris Warren looks to compete for the title of SEC Freshman of the Year as he leads the team with an average of 15.9 points per game along with 5.3 assists to only 2.8 turnovers. The other offensive anchor is Dwayne Curtis, who’s inside skills bring him 15.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game along with averaging a league-leading 68.7% from the field. Other contributors such as Polynice, Huertas, and Williams all have potential to have a big game.

Gameplan: As good as he is, Warren is taking too many shots and Curtis, who leads the conference in field goal percentage, is only taking 8.6 per game. Swap the two’s attempts and leave Curtis out on the floor more. Get Williams more playing time, as he has tremendous potential, averaging 8.1 rebounds in only 25 minutes.

Schedule

@ Miss. State (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. Presbyterian (W)
@ Alabama (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
vs. Miss. State (W)
@ LSU (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Georgia (W)

Prediction: (25-5, 11-5)

Postseason: An NCAA bid should be a given, and depending on the SEC tournament results…No wins (7 seed), One win (6 seed), Two wins (4 seed), Overall win (3 seed).

SOUTH CAROLINA (9-9, 1-3)

Analysis: The Gamecocks shoot the three well, but are on the low side of mediocre in nearly everything else. With that said, the team’s lone conference win was a road win at Arkansas, a tough place to play, so the team has proven it can get hot. Three-point shooting teams are never out of any game. Downey is bolstering his First-Team All-SEC credentials by averaging 19.9 points and 5.0 assists per game, and Fredrick posts 16.1 points per game. The team’s best three-point shooter, Raley-Ross (61.2%) only attempts 3.1 threes per game. Rebounding is a weakness, also, as is depth.

Gameplan: Get Raley-Ross more playing time and encourage him to take more threes. Because of the guard-heavy lineup of the talent, the Gamecocks should focus on three-point sets in practice and build on their asset.

Schedule

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Georgia (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Florida (L)
vs. Miss. State (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)

Prediction: (12-18, 4-12)

Postseason: The Gamecocks would have to win the SEC tournament to receive a 10-15 seed in the NCAA tournament.

#3 TENNESSEE (16-2, 3-1)

Analysis: Although the Vols lead the league in three-pointers made per contest, the squad surprisingly ranks only 6th out of 12 in percentage behind the arc. That in and of itself suggests less reliance on the three-ball. With that said, it’s tough to improve on 16-2. Preseason All-American Chris Lofton has fizzled, shooting only 34.8% from behind the arc and 35.6% from the floor to average 13.8 points due to leading the team in attempts. Although it’s understandable to expect him to light up again, it’s time to hand the reigns over to Howell, who is an unsung star off the bench hitting 42.3% of his 3.9 attempts per game in 19.8 minutes. JaJuan Smith leads the Vols with 14.4 points per game along with a good 2.5:1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. Iowa transfer Tyler Smith anchors the inside game with 12.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, although he actually leads the team with 3.4 assists per game – an aspect of the game most big men are not particularly adept at. I suppose it’s easier when you’re surrounded by shooters.

Gameplan: Lofton needs to limit his shots and hand some of them over to Howell. Leading the conference in steals per game, the team needs to actually play some on-ball defense in a half-court setting as well if they hope to make a long run into the NCAA’s.

Schedule

vs. Georgia (W)
@ Alabama (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. Florida (W)
@ LSU (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Georgia (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ #1 Memphis (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (W)
vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Prediction: (26-4, 13-3)

Postseason: An NCAA bid is obvious here. Anything less than making the SEC Tournament finals will result in a 2 seed, and a tournament final should hand them a top seed, with a conference tournament win a possibility for the #1 overall seed.

#16 VANDERBILT (17-2, 2-2)

Analysis: The Commodores are a story of polar opposites. The team executes the most efficient offense in the SEC, but their defense is nearly non-existent. Whereas Tennessee plays little half-court defense but does press, Vandy does not. Shan Foster has a great argument for SEC Player of the Year with his 20.1 points and 4.9 rebounds per game along with a 51.2% shooting percentage, including 48.1 from behind the arc to easily lead the conference. Ogilvy is a lock for SEC All-Freshman team as he averages 18.5 points and 6.8 rebounds, although his production has lessened as he’s entered SEC play.

Gameplan: Extend the defense and employ at least a half-court trap (preferrably a full) the majority of the time. Rely less on Ogilvy to score now that SEC play is in full swing and involve Neltner or Metcalfe a bit more. Keep up the impressive offensive production.

Schedule

@ Florida (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ Georgia (W)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Kentucky (W)
vs. Florida (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. Miss. State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Prediction: (25-6, 10-6)

Postseason: Another automatic NCAA bid, with the SEC tournament: No wins (6 seed), One win (5 seed), Two wins (4 seed), Overall win (3 seed)

Hope you enjoy, comments are appreciated.

Saturday odds…

Overall: 108-23 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 43-37 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 15-5 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 10-10 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(8-9, 2-2) Kentucky [#143] vs. (9-9, 1-3) South Carolina [#109]
Spread: Kentucky by 7.5
Pick: Kentucky – The Wildcats seem to be improving drastically, although the Gamecocks are more competitive recently as well.
—Keys: If the Wildcat guards can continue their recent offensive performance, the team’s defense should be able to contain USC. Look for Bradley and Crawford’s performances to determine Kentucky’s success.

(11-8, 0-4) Alabama [#113] vs. (12-5, 2-2) Auburn [#128]
Spread: Alabama by 10.5
Pick: Auburn – The Tigers are a very experienced squad, and thus the “road factor” should be at a minimum. The Tide are floundering, but should be able to pull out a close home win.
—Keys: Watch for the turnovers. Alabama is somewhat susceptible to turning the ball over and the Tigers force a ton of them. If the Tigers stay hot from the field and force a high number of turnovers, they have a chance of winning the game.

(13-5, 4-0) Mississippi State [#73] vs. (15-2, 2-2) #15 Ole Miss [#12]
Spread: Miss. State by 5.5
Pick: Mississippi State – The Rebels aren’t playing well on the road thus far in the SEC, and MSU is one of the hottest teams in the conference.
—Keys: According to the Wirth Value, this game matches up the SEC’s #2 offense against the #1 defense. Usually in these radical opposites, the home team wins the battle. Look for the Curtis/Varnado matchup to define the outcome.

(16-2, 3-1) #3 Tennessee [#1] vs. (11-5, 2-1) Georgia [#121]
Spread: Tennessee by 13.5
Pick: Tennessee – The Bulldogs don’t have the talent or depth to keep this one close.
—Keys: Georgia will need to defend the three well to have a chance in this game.

(7-11, 0-4) LSU [#201] vs. (13-5, 2-2) Arkansas [#41]
Spread: Arkansas by 4.5
Pick: Arkansas – Although the Razorbacks tend to choke on the road (see; Auburn), LSU is simply awful.
—Keys: Will the Tigers be able to find any offense against the SEC’s #2 defense?

Official Multi-Blogger Week Eleven Poll

Here is everyone’s vote.

1. Memphis (NC, 11 votes)
2. Kansas (+1, 4 votes)
3. Tennessee (+2)
4. Duke (+2)
5. North Carolina (-3)
6. Washington State (+1)
7. UCLA (-3)
8. Indiana (NC)
9. Michigan State (+1)
10. Georgetown (+3)
11. Wisconsin (+5)
12. Texas (+8)
13. Butler (-2)
14. Dayton (NC)
15. Ole Miss (NC)
16. Vanderbilt (+3)
17. Pittsburgh (NC)
18. Drake (+5)
19. Texas A&M (-10)
20. Xavier (-2)
21. Marquette (-9)
22. Stanford (NR)
23. Villanova (NR)
24. St. Mary’s (NR)
25. Arizona State (-3)

Others Receiving Votes – most to least: West Virginia, Baylor, Clemson, Gonzaga, Arizona, Oregon, Oklahoma, USC, Kansas State, Rhode Island, Louisville, Miami (FL), Florida, Mississippi State, Cleveland State, Massachusetts

New: (22) Stanford, (23) Villanova, (24) St. Mary’s
Out: (21) Rhode Island, (24) Rhode Island, (25) Clemson

—Texas A&M fell tremendously after falling to 1-3 in the Big 12 with three-straight losses at the hands of Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Baylor.

—Marquette fell nearly as much after losing two in a row to Louisville and Connecticut.

—Wisconsin and Drake were the big winners this week, as the Badgers are a perfect 6-0 in the Big Ten with recent wins over Michigan and Northwestern and Drake has taken care of Illinois State and Creighton to move to 17-1 and 8-0 in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Wednesday games…

Overall: 108-23 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 43-37 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 15-5 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 10-10 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(9-9, 1-3) South Carolina [71] vs. (17-3, 4-1) Florida [73]: Having the disadvantage of no access to the game while it was being played, I instinctively checked the free throw percentages after I saw the 2-point result. And – shocker – the better free throw shooting team prevailed, as the Gators hit 75.0% from the charity stripe compared to the Gamecocks’ 45.5%. Also per the usual, Calathes and Speights led the Gators in scoring with a combined 43 points on 16-of-27 shooting and 17 rebounds. Speights’ 22 and 13 was his fifth double-double of the season. The game’s only other double-double belonged to Dominic Archie of USC with 14 points and 11 rebounds, his second of the season. The Gators’ are seriously inept on defense, as they let the Gamecocks shoot 52.8% from the floor, but are efficient in most every other way – winning the turnover and rebounding battles. Finding a way to win is key in the SEC.
Impact [South Carolina]: For a team that needs every win that could be afforded to them, USC absolutely must win games at home. A 9-3 or 10-2 mark will likely now be needed in the remaining games for any hope at an NCAA bid.
Impact [Florida]: Winning on the road is a crucial confidence-booster for a team as young as this year’s Florida squad. If the Gators can stay competitive on the road and find some defense, they very well could be in the title mix at the end of the season.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 11 more shots attempted

Tuesday games, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 107-23 (82.3%)
Vs. Spread: 42-37 (53.2%)
Overall (SEC): 14-5 (73.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 9-10 (47.4%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(8-9, 2-2) Kentucky [72] vs. (16-2, 3-1) #13 Tennessee [66]: Ironically, in what was arguably one of Lofton’s best games this season, none of his fellow teammates could step up and help avoid the massive upset (statistically speaking, of course). Lofton shot 7-of-15 overall and 5-of-11 from behind the arc for 22 points, but no other Vol managed more than 12 points – Chism on 3-of-8 shooting. Freshman Patrick Patterson had a massive game, recording 20 points on 6-of-11 shooting and 8-of-9 from the charity stripe and at least five blocks (I don’t have a full boxscore yet). Bradley came through as well, hitting all 10 free throw attempts and adding 3 from the field for 16 points. Neither team hit three-pointers well, but the Wildcats managed to keep it close into the second half in which the home momentum sent them on top for the final time.
Impact [Kentucky]: This was an absolutely huge victory for the Wildcats after losing their second SEC game. Now remaining in the thick of things in the East, there’s no reason to count out Kentucky to challenge Tennessee for the division.
Impact [Tennessee]: The loss proved that the Vols, though incredibly talented, aren’t invincible. The Vols will need to win a decent number of road games to take the overall SEC title. The game @ MSU is setting up to have enormous implications for both teams.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 24-of-28 (85.7%) free throw shooting

(12-5, 2-2) Auburn [78] vs. (2-21) Presbyterian [65]: Barrett his second double-double of the season after a few disappointing outings as of late to lead all scorers with 24 points on 9-of-11 shooting and 10 rebounds. The Tigers were absolutely on fire tonight after their hot shooting took down nationally-ranked Ole Miss at home just a few days ago, although Auburn let the horrendous Presbyterian team score 65 points on them and shoot over 40% from the field.
Impact [Auburn]: Little to none, though the shooting touch momentum will need to continue in a trip to Alabama.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s +17 rebound margin

Wednesday Odds

(9-8, 1-2) South Carolina [#102] vs. (16-3, 3-1) Florida [#69]
Spread: Florida by 1
Pick: Florida – The Gators are improving every game, and they took Ole Miss to the wire in Oxford.

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 106-22 (82.8%)
Vs. Spread: 42-36 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 14-4 (77.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 9-9 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(7-9, 1-2) Kentucky [#183] vs. (16-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 4.5
Pick: Tennessee – Although this was a tough call as the Wildcats have been improving and they are tough at home, I believe the Vols will take care of business against Kentucky.
—Keys: Kentucky’s defense is playing tough – if the guards can shake up Tennessee’s guards, it could be a close game. Watch for the matchup between Tyler Smith – SEC Player of the Year candidate - and Patrick Patterson – SEC Freshman of the Year candidate.

Also picking: (11-5, 2-2) Auburn [#120] over (2-20) Presbyterian [#327] at home.

Pomeroy Ratings Week Eleven prediction…

Another feature that we’ll be beginning comes straight from Ken Pomeroy’s statistical blog, one of the most-visited and well-respected statistical geniuses on the net.

In addition to Ken’s standard RPI, he factors efficiency much like I do – except for all 340 NCAa Division I teams. With these numbers, that will be included in these posts, the numbers predict the ultimate outcome of each team’s season.

The following are his predictions for the SEC teams as of Week Eleven.

East

1. [#11] Tennessee (27-4, 14-2)
2. [#32] Florida (23-8, 10-6)
3. [#61] Vanderbilt (23-8, 8-8)
4. [#70] Kentucky (13-16, 7-9)
4. [#74] South Carolina (15-15, 7-9)
6. [#96] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)

West

1. [#31] Mississippi State (21-9, 12-4)
2. [#36] Ole Miss (24-6, 10-6)
3. [#48] Arkansas (19-11, 8-8)
4. [#93] Alabama (16-15, 5-11)
4. [#125] Auburn (15-14, 5-11)
6. [#129] LSU (10-20, 3-13)

SEC Overall Title: Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Percentage Chance of No More Losses

1. Tennessee – 7.10%
2. Miss. State – 0.21%

Wirth Value: Week Eleven

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (56.33, NC)
2. Ole Miss (50.56, +2)
3. Tennessee (50.52, -1)
4. Florida (45.73, -1)
5. Alabama (32.63, NC)
6. Arkansas (31.19, NC)
7. South Carolina (30.46, NC)
8. Miss. State (21.98, +1)
9. Kentucky (21.74, -1)
10. Georgia (19.89, NC)
11. Auburn (16.61, NC)
12. LSU (7.94, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (49.70, NC)
2. Arkansas (46.42, NC)
3. Georgia (40.18, +2)
4. Florida (35.29, NC)
5. Tennessee (34.55, +3)
6. Kentucky (34.15, -3)
7. LSU (24.91, -1)
8. Ole Miss (21.81, -1)
9. South Carolina (20.94, NC)
10. Auburn (19.13, +1)
11. Vanderbilt (17.39, -1)
12. Alabama (17.12, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (125.36, +2)
2. Ole Miss (116.46, -1)
3. Florida (114.76, -1)
4. Vanderbilt (98.62, +1)
5. Arkansas (96.68, -1)
6. Miss. State (92.54, NC)
7. South Carolina (71.81, +2)
8. Alabama (70.47, -1)
9. Georgia (69.82, +1)
10. Kentucky (60.81, -2)
11. Auburn (49.29, +1)
12. LSU (34.80, -1)

—Lots of movement on the defensive board this week, resulting in some pretty major moves on the overall board.

—Tennessee’s RPI has sky-rocketed after defeating both Vanderbilt and Ohio State, and as a result they took over the top position overall and moved up by three after holding the Commodores’ potent offense to only 60 points.

—South Carolina also jumped 2 spots overall after a huge road win over a talented Arkansas squad, despite losing 3 of their last 4.

—Kentucky finds themselves among the bottom of the conference statistically, after losing 3 of their last 4.

—Mississippi State continues to prove the surprise team of the conference thus far, as the Bulldogs’ impressive defense pulls away from the previously-leading Arkansas.

Saturday games…

Overall: 106-22 (82.8%)
Vs. Spread: 42-36 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 14-4 (77.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 9-9 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(17-2, 2-2) #17 Vanderbilt [92] vs. (7-11, 0-4) LSU [76]: Junior Marcus Thornton scored his third 27-point game of the season and freshman Anthony Randolph pulled down a career-high 19 rebounds and 14 points for his fourth double-double of the season while LSU outrebounded the Commodores 36-29 and yet Vanderbilt destroyed the Tigers by 16 points. Efficient ball-handling and hot shooting was key, although the Tigers were still allowed to shoot 47.5% from the field. Five ‘Dores scored in double digits, led by Foster and Gordon who had 18 apiece on a combined 12-of-27 shooting effort and sophomore Jermaine Beal had an impressive 9 assists to no turnovers. AJ Ogilvy had his second consecutive mediocre game with 10 points on 2-of-6 shooting, 3 rebounds and 3 turnovers.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores end a two-game slide with the win after winning 17-straight games to begin the season. Vanderbilt will need some help from Tennessee in order to get back into the race for the Eastern title.
Impact [LSU]: At this point, the Tigers are looking towards next season. The question will be, can LSU pull off a title-altering upset at some point this season?
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 21-to-7 (3:1) assist-to-turnover ratio

(11-8, 0-4) Alabama [56] vs. (13-5, 4-0) Mississippi State [66]: The Bulldogs finally found their stroke from behind the arc and hit each of them in timely fashion, leading this game throughout by matching every Tide run. Despite Varnado’s lackluster performance on the inside, MSU still held Alabama to just 56 points – 21 of them coming from Hendrix, despite his attempting only 10 shots. Alabama’s big man turned the ball over 7 times, however. Gee managed only 10 on 2-of-9 shooting. Gordon brought down a game-high 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting while Stewart hit 3-of-5 from behind the arc to record 16.
Impact [Alabama]: This game was the Tide’s last chance to rebound from three-straight losses, as the NCAA’s are most certainly out of reach at this point. Alabama’s situation is only different from LSU’s in one way – the Tide are much more likely to upset a team or two this season.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs are on a serious run, but have three signature games coming up with Ole Miss and Tennessee coming to town and a trip to Arkansas mixed in between. If MSU can manage a 2-1 mark in that span, the Western Division looks like a good bet. 3-0 would put State in the upper echelon with Tennessee for the overall championship.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s 46.2% shooting from behind the arc vs. Alabama’s 14.3%

(16-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [74] vs. (12-6, 3-2) Ohio State [69]: The Vols defeated the Buckeyes in the same fashion they’ve defeated every team this season, with good shooting and taking care of the ball. Two Buckeyes recorded double-doubles, as freshman Evan Turner claimed 21 points and 10 rebounds for the first of his career and senior Othello Hunter grabbed 17 points and 14 rebounds for the second of his season. Balanced scoring was again key for Tennessee, as four Vols scored in double figures but none with more than 15. Lofton had a not-so-terrible game, shooting 4-of-10 from three to score 13.
Impact [Tennesse]: With the last non-conference opponent out of the way, the Volunteers look unstoppable on thier march towards a top seed in the tournament.
Stat of the Game: Ohio State’s 2-of-20 (10.0%) shooting from behind the arc

(11-5, 2-2) Auburn [80] vs. (15-2, 2-2) Ole Miss [77]: Hot shooting allowed the Tigers a tremendous upset of the Rebels, despite being outrebounded heavily. The Tigers shot 47.4% from the field and even better from behind the arc, as senior Frank Tolbert had the biggest game of his season with 29 points on 9-of-11 shooting from the field and 5 rebounds. Reed also notched a season high with 21 points, along with 6 assists. Prowell added 12 rebounds. Warren had another huge game for the Rebels with 25 points on 9-of-20 shooting…7-of-14 of those from behind the arc…and Curtis recorded the eighth double-double of his season.
Impact [Auburn]: This win should inject a much-needed dose of life into the Tigers, as they remain in the battle for the Western division title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are now on their heels, and will now need to do what young players don’t do well – rebound from a tough stretch of losses.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 10-of-19 (52.6%) shooting from three

(11-5, 2-1) Georgia [82] vs. (13-5, 2-2) Arkansas [69]: The Razorbacks are showing signs of their previous road-choking selves, as Pelphrey’s squad was simply not the more physical team against the Bulldogs and couldn’t hit anything from behind the arc (although, that is usual) and the ‘Dawgs were unstoppable from long range. Georgia also outrebounded Arkansas and won the turnover war. Four Bulldogs scored in double digits, led by junior Billy Humphrey’s 24 points on 4-of-6 from long range, also including Gaines and Price with 14 apiece and Woodbury with 12. Charles Thomas and Sonny Weems were the only ‘Backs in double digits with 13 and 12 points respectively, as together the two had 8 turnovers and normally-outstanding sophomore Beverly had an “off” game shooting “only” 3-of-7 from the field for 9 points.
Impact [Georgia]: The win certainly gives the Bulldogs a pulse in the conference. Although Felton’s squad can’t realistically hope to compete with Tennessee in the East, a small run could put the NCAA’s within reach.
Impact [Arkansas]: Arkansas, the previous favorite in the West, has now lost 2-straight games to “lesser” opponents. After a trip to LSU, the Razorbacks won’t have long to rebound in an absolutely nasty five-game stretch including both Mississippi State games, a trip to Tennessee, and home games against Ole Miss and Florida. If the ‘Backs can’t reverse this momentum and manage a sub-.500 mark in those five games, the squad could begin losing sight of the Western division title.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 11-to-17 assist-to-turnover ratio

(16-3, 3-1) Florida [81] vs. (7-9, 1-2) Kentucky [70]: The Wildcats are proving they have some fight left in them…in their losses. The Gators needed overtime to defeat the visiting ‘Cats, and Kentucky slips to their worst record in quite some time. Two Gators scored 20 points or more, as Calathes and Speights combined for 44 points and 16 rebounds on a combined 13-of-23 shooting effort from the floor. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this team will challenge for a national title in the next year or two. Ramel Bradley carried the Wildcat offense, bringing down 23 points on 8-of-16 shooting, while Crawford and Patterson scored 16 and 15 points respectively. The rest of the Kentucky team combined for 16 points total. This team is struggling mightily with their lack of depth.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are still on track to challenge Tennessee in the East if the Vols will stumble, but road games will prove vital for the young squad.
Impact [Kentucky]: If the Wildcats want to make any noise in the conference, the time is now. This game proved Kentucky can play quality competition on the road, but these type of games are becoming necessary “W”s for the ‘Cats.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s ever-potent offense: 48.0% shooting from the floor

Saturday odds…

Overall: 102-20 (83.6%)
Vs. Spread: 39-33 (54.2%)
Overall (SEC): 11-2 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 6-7 (46.2%)
East vs. West: East, 5-3

(16-2, 1-2) #17 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (7-10, 0-3) LSU [#185]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 12.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Tigers have been blown out at home by 20+ points, the Commodores should handle this game very easily.
—Keys: Look for the ‘Dores to find their touch from the arc again.

(11-7, 0-3) Alabama [#102] vs. (12-5, 3-0) Mississippi State [#85]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Mississippi State – Although the road is a tough place to play, the Bulldogs almost beat ‘Bama at home last season and have the momentum to pull the upset.
—Keys: While the Tide are looking to save their chances at a postseason appearance, the Bulldogs are trying to establish themselves at the top of the West. Will the ‘Dawgs be able to win on the road, and will the three-straight losses be the beginning of a downward spiral for Alabama? This is a vital matchup in the West.

(15-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [#1] vs. (12-5, 3-2) Ohio State [#24]
Spread: Tennessee by 9
Pick: Tennessee – The Vols will be prepared and Ohio State is too young to play well against the Vols on the road.
—Keys: A win over Ohio State will help the Vols’ argument for a top seed come March if all goes as planned.

(10-5, 1-2) Auburn [#149] vs. (15-1, 2-1) Ole Miss [#14]
Spread: Ole Miss by 7.5
Pick: Ole Miss – Although the Tigers played Arkansas well at home, the Rebels are very efficient and should light up the nets in Auburn.
—Keys: Can Auburn find enough offense to keep up with the ‘Backs?

(10-5, 1-1) Georgia [#157] vs. (13-4, 2-1) Arkansas [#37]
Spread: Arkansas by 1
Pick: Arkansas – The Bulldogs have momentum, but the Razorbacks are much more talented.
—Keys: Will the Bulldogs play off of the momentum from the Alabama win? If the Dawgs can find a way to slow down Arkansas’ inside game, they have a real chance in this game.

(15-3, 2-1) Florida [#71] vs. (7-8, 1-1) Kentucky [#179]
Spread: Florida by 8
Pick: Florida – The Gators are young and should take care of the Wildcats at home.
—Keys: The Wilcats desperately need a win as the Gators look to establish themselves in the Eastern Division.

Crews returning…

Rumor has it that Duke Crews, a talented sophomore forward for Tennessee, will return either against Kentucky or Georgia in the next couple of games, helping the Vols’ already sickeningly impressive depth.

Dave Odom retiring…

As predicted, this will be the final season for Dave Odom of South Carolina. Odom has taken USC to just one NCAA Tournament in 10 years, although USC did claim back-to-back NIT championships a few years ago. His overall record is 401-268, and he is expected to announce his retirement today.

With an entire half-season to carry out the search for a new coach, who will the Gamecocks aim for? I’ll keep you updated on everything I hear, both rumors and facts – both of which will be labeled correctly.

Wednesday and Thursday games…

Overall: 102-20 (83.6%)
Vs. Spread: 39-33 (54.2%)
Overall (SEC): 11-2 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 6-7 (46.2%)
East vs. West: East, 5-3

(10-5, 1-1) Georgia [61] vs. (11-7, 0-3) Alabama [49]: The Tide spread themselves too thin due to foul trouble for Hendrix, and thus the Bulldogs ran away with the win. While Alabama shot somewhat better from the field, the hoop seemed to shrink outside of the arc, as UA shot only 3-of-20 from long-range. Humphrey and Price led UGA in scoring with 13 and 11 apiece, although seven others had at least three. Hendrix paced all scorers with 19 and 10 rebounds for his fourth-straight double-double, but Gee only managed 5 points on 2-of-9 shooting and seven rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: This should provide a nice boost in the standings for the Bulldogs, as they are now tied with Vanderbilt and Kentucky for third place in the East, keeping them in the race.
Impact [Alabama]: The dreaded hangover game struck again, and the Tide has now lost three-straight headed towards Saturday’s matchup against a hot MSU team. If UA doesn’t get something going against the Bulldogs, the Tiders may be looking at a sub .500 team on the year.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 3-of-20 shooting from behind the arc – the sign of a desperate and confused offense

(7-10, 0-3) LSU [67] vs. (10-5, 1-2) Auburn [74]: Auburn simply outshot LSU in this one, as the Swamp Tigers consistently awful three-point shooting bit them hard. You’d think that if you’re not hitting them, you’d stop shooting as many, but Brady’s team attempted 24 threes and made only 7. Both teams have problems with depth, although it was most apparent with LSU, with players outside of Thornton, Temple, and Randolph accounting for a combined total of 11 points. Thornton did, however, have the biggest game of his short career with 27 points and 6 rebounds. Reed led Auburn with 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting while Tolbert claimed 9 rebounds to go along with his 16 points.
Impact [LSU]: With their post-season hopes pretty much trampled, the Tigers should be taking this off-time (they can’t be practicing, right?) to look for a new coach.
Impact [Auburn]: Realistically, the postseason is a longshot for the Tigers, but this is certainly a small step in the right direction, but the Aubies need to keep winning.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 54.7% overall shooting

(15-1, 2-1) # Ole Miss [89] vs. (15-3, 2-1) Florida [87]: As expected, this game featured little defense and lots of offense. The Gators pulled out an impressive run late in the game, but the Rebels closed it out for the tight victory. The Rebels’ Dwayne Curtis led all scorers and grabbed the seventh double-double of his season with 20 points and 12 rebounds, while the thus-far impressive Warren dished out 10 assists to only 2 turnovers. Freshman guard Trevor Gaskins also nearly had a career-high day with 19 points. Calathes and Werner led the Gators with 16 points apiece, while Speights saw only 17 minutes of action.
Impact [Ole Miss]: Winning close games at home can build confidence or can produce an emotional hangover, especially with young teams. The Rebels remain in the thick of things in the West with the win to hold serve thus far at home.
Impact [Florida]: Mostly the same, how will the young players react to a close loss on the road? The Gators challenged a very talented Rebel team and look to compete for “best of the rest” behind Tennessee in the East.
Stat of the Game: Both teams shooting a combined 49.6% from the floor

(13-4, 2-1) Arkansas [66] vs. (9-8, 1-2) South Carolina [70]: The hangover from the overtime Alabama/Arkansas matchup proved true in both cases, as the Razorbacks dropped a vital game at home to the Gamecocks. The teams shot similarly, but turnovers (lack of concentration, maybe?) doomed the ‘Backs, led by Weems and Welsh with 4 each. Oddly, each team featured a 28-point scorer: for USC it was sophomore Devan Downey on 9-of-18 shooting and for Arkansas it was senior Sonny Weems with the biggest game of his season on 11-of-19 shooting. The ‘Backs did, however, manage to do what they do so well – rebound, outrebounding USC by 15.
Impact [Arkansas]: Arkansas is very experienced, and this should serve as a wake-up call. The ‘Backs now fall a game behind MSU for the West, and will need every win they can get from here on out. Another bad loss could prove the final straw in terms of an overall or West title.
Impact [South Carolina]: USC is still hoping for the NIT, as the NCAA’s are nearly out of the question at this point, and this was a big step forward towards that goal.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 80.0% free throw shooting (in a 4-point game)

Thursday Game

(15-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [80] vs. (16-2, 1-2) #17 Vanderbilt [60]: The Commodores fought hard early in the second half, but the depth and talent of the Vols ran away with a huge victory. The question of just how competitive Vanderbilt is remains to be seen, as it seems the team is buckling under the pressure of talented competition. Both teams shot surprisingly mediocre, with the Vols holding the distinct advantage while holding Vandy to their lowest point total and lowest field-goal percentage of the year. Balanced scoring again led the Volunteers, with Wayne Chism having an absolutely tremendous game with 18 points and 18 rebounds – yikes! Ironically, this was his first double-double of the season. Lofton, easily the most disappointing player in the nation, managed only 11 on 4-of-11 shooting, including 2-of-6 from three. Foster and Ogilvy were again the story for Vanderbilt, but this time in a much more quiet tone – 14 and 12 points respectively. Ogivly couldn’t handle the fact-paced game, as he had only 5 rebounds and 4 turnovers on the game.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols should now have the confidence to play with anyone in the league, having already beaten two teams with 1 loss or less. With these major hurdles out of the way, this team is looking as if it has a chance of an undefeated SEC record.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores’ confidence has to be shot after back-to-back conference losses following a school-record-setting 16-straight wins. If the ‘Dores can’t re-focus on the games at hand, the SEC could be on the verge of witnessing an epic collapse.
Stat of the Game: Vandy’s (the best 3-point shooting team in the SEC) 3-of-21 (14.3%) shooting from behind the arc

Thursday odds…

Overall: 99-18 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread: 38-29 (56.7%)
Overall (SEC): 8-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 5-3 (62.5%)
East vs. West: East, 5-3

I’ll be posting the results of tonight’s games, including some well-predicted upsets, tomorrow.

(14-1, 2-0) #13 Tennesse [#3] vs. (16-1, 1-1) #17 Vanderbilt [#14]
Spread: Tennessee by 10
Pick: Vanderbilt – I trust the Commodores to make this a game, but the Vols should pull out the “W”.
—Keys: The Vols don’t play very tight defense, and the Commodores are the best-shooting team in the SEC. As long as the ‘Dores avoid a night like they had against Kentucky recently, this could be an exciting – and high-scoring – game.

Official Multi-Blogger Week Ten Poll

Link to everyone’s vote is here. 

1. North Carolina (NC, 9 votes)
2. Memphis (NC, 4 votes)
3. Texas (NC, 1 vote)
4. Kansas (NC)
5. Duke (NC, 1 vote)
6. Washington State (+2)
7. Georgetown (NC)
8. UCLA (-2)
9. Michigan State (NC)
10. Marquette (NC)
11. Indiana (+1)
12. Texas A&M (-1)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Butler (NC)
15. Pittsburgh (+2)
16. Clemson (+2)
17. Vanderbilt (+2)
18. Miami-FL (+4)
19. Arizona (+5)
20. Gonzaga (+1)
21. Rhode Island (NR)
22. Oregon (-7)
23. West Virginia (NR)
24. Xavier (-8)
25. BYU (NC)

Others Receiving Votes – most to least: Villanova, Dayton, USC, Ole Miss, Stanford, Wisconsin, St. Mary’s, Massachusetts, Florida, Louisville, Arizona State, Providence

New: (21) Rhode Island, (23) West Virginia
Out: (20) Louisville, (23) St. Mary’s

—Biggest loser was Xavier, after despite oddly not losing a game. The competition wasn’t particularly strong, but an 8-point drop after constant wins is surprising.

—Oregon also suffered despite beating two ranked opponents because of a loss to Arizona State, who is receiving votes. Another interesting one.

—Arizona was the only major gainer, after losing two of their last three. Inverted much?

Division Record Update…

As of now, the East vs. West matchup stands at…

Drumroll, please…

East: 3
West: 2

Of note, the West’s only two wins over the East have both come from the hands of MSU, who has defeated Georgia and Kentucky. Florida has provided the East with two wins over Alabama and Auburn, while Tennessee proved the tiebreaker over Ole Miss.

Tuesday game, Wednesday Odds…

Overall: 99-18 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread: 38-29 (56.7%)
Overall (SEC): 8-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 5-3 (62.5%)

(12-5, 3-0) Mississippi State [69] vs. (7-8, 1-1) Kentucky [64]: In a game that proved a lot to the nation for both teams, Jarvis Varnado is beginning to make his argument for All-SEC First Team honors. In the game, Varnado recorded State’s only third-ever triple-double, with 10 blocks (for the second game in a row), 12 rebounds, and 10 points. The stats don’t tell the whole story, as simply Varnado’s presence rattled Kentucky – evident by freshman phenom inside-man Patrick Patterson’s stat line: 10 points, 3 rebounds, 1 block. All drastically under his average for the season. Gordon led the Bulldogs offensively with 24 points on his best three-shooting night of the season (5-of-7) while Bradley and Crawford carried the ‘Cats with 22 and 20 points respectively on a collective 14-of-36 shooting performance. Both teams had a surprisingly low number of turnovers considering their aptitudes for such, MSU won the rebounding war 37-28, and the Bulldogs posted an amazing 15 blocks on the game.
Impact [Miss. State]: MSU possibly has more momentum than any other team in the conference behind Tennessee as they head towards Tuscaloosa on Saturday. With both teams coming off recent emotion-filled games, can the Bullies continue their undefeated conference play?
Impact [Kentucky]: This loss should be nothing more than a re-confirmation of the Wildcats’ weaknesses, but nothing less than a tremendous confidence boost as the team played without key members and as Patterson a non-factor against quality competition on the road and nearly pulled the upset.
Stat of the Game: 12, 10 and 10. Varnado is leaving his mark on the competition.

Wednesday Odds

(9-5, 0-1) Georgia [#162] vs. (11-6, 0-2) Alabama [#85]
Spread: Georgia by 3
Pick: Alabama – I’m picking the Crimson Tide in the upset, as Arkansas is significantly stronger than the Bulldogs.
—Keys: If the Tide can effectively feed Hendrix, the game should be their for the taking…but will Alabama still be hung over from a difficult overtime loss to Arkansas?

(7-9, 0-2) LSU [#179] vs. (9-5, 0-2) Auburn [#152]
Spread: LSU by 6
Pick: Auburn – This is an incredibly tough call, but I’m going with Auburn in the upset.
—Keys: Who will find their offense first? Look for Auburn to pass the ball well if they hope to win.

(14-1, 1-1) Ole Miss [#19] vs. (15-2, 2-0) Florida [#77]
Spread: Ole Miss by 5
Pick: Ole Miss – Inexperienced guys, regardless of their talent, typically play much better at home. Both of these teams are highly inexperienced.
—Keys: This game will be heavily offense-oriented, so Florida will need to shoot lights-out to stay close.

(13-3, 2-0) Arkansas [#31] vs. (8-8, 0-2) South Carolina [#133]
Spread: Arkansas by 9.5
Pick: Arkansas – The Razorbacks are tremendously more talented and deep than the Gamecocks.
—Keys: As long as the ‘Backs can avoid a hangover from the overtime win agaisnt Alabama, this one shouldn’t be close. Look for USC to struggle to find their stroke.

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 98-18 (84.5%)
Vs. Spread: 38-28 (57.6%)
Overall (SEC): 7-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 5-2 (71.4%)

(11-5, 2-0) Mississippi State [#96] vs. (7-7, 1-0) Kentucky [#177]
Spread: Mississippi State by 7.5
Pick: Miss. State – The Bulldogs are playing unbelieveable defense and the Wildcats are struggling to score, and have been losing away games by large margins.
—Keys: How will the Wildcats handle their recent win? And how will injury concerns effect each team?

Sunday game…

Overall: 98-18 (84.5%)
Vs. Spread: 38-28 (57.6%)
Overall (SEC): 7-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 5-2 (71.4%)

(13-3, 2-0) Arkansas [71] vs. (11-6, 0-2) Alabama [67]: Arkansas maintained healthy control of this game throughout until the closing minute, where some costly mistakes (mainly by Gary Ervin) cost Arkansas the lead as the Tide rumbled back to tie the game and send it to overtime. Ervin redeemed himself, however, with five straight points at the end of overtime, winning the game for the Razorbacks. While Beverly had an uncharacteristic off-night, he still led all rebounders with 13. Charles Thomas was a force, scoring 13 points and grabbing 10 rebounds for his second double-double of the season, and Townes led Razorback scorers with 18 on 7-of-8 shooting. Per the usual, Hendrix claimed his ninth double-double (and third straight) with 17 points and 11 rebounds along with 4 blocks, while Gee took a good number of ill-advised shots, shooting only 4-of-16 for 15 points.
Impact [Arkansas]: The close win should wake up the Razorbacks and remind them that the West is still going to be a tough title to claim.
Impact [Alabama]: Two losses in a row capped by today’s heart-breaking overtime defeat could spell hangover, as the Tide must now travel to Georgia and then host Mississippi State in the next week.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas being given 11 more foul shot attempts than ‘Bama

Wirth Value: Week Ten

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (58.12, NC)
2. Tennessee (46.91, +1)
3. Florida (46.69, +1)
4. Ole Miss (44.75, -2)
5. Alabama (36.14, NC)
6. Arkansas (34.16, +1)
7. South Carolina (28.66, -1)
8. Kentucky (25.08, +1)
9. Miss. State (20.81, -1)
10. Georgia (17.74, NC)
11. Auburn (12.55, NC)
12. LSU (9.12, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (48.73, +1)
2. Arkansas (48.07, -1)
3. Kentucky (36.19, +1)
4. Florida (35.09, -1)
5. Georgia (31.36, +2)
6. LSU (29.71, -1)
7. Ole Miss (28.90, -1)
8. Tennessee (26.64, NC)
9. South Carolina (21.10, NC)
10. Vanderbilt (18.94, +1)
11. Auburn (16.43, -1)
12. Alabama (13.85, NC)

Overall

1. Ole Miss (117.62, NC)
2. Florida (114.22, NC)
3. Tennessee (112.74, NC)
4. Arkansas (103.68, +1)
5. Vanderbilt (99.66, -1)
6. Miss. State (89.38, NC)
7. Alabama (74.07, NC)
8. Kentucky (68.19, +1)
9. South Carolina (67.21, -1)
10. Georgia (55.98, NC)
11. LSU (42.90, NC)
12. Auburn (39.27, NC)

—Ole Miss suffered offensively after squeezing by an average LSU defense at home.

—Mississippi State capped their long, slow approach towards the top of the defensive standings after holding LSU and Georgia to their lowest point totals and field goal percentages of the season.

—Following their 39-point, 21% performance at home versus Miss. State, LSU’s offense is nearing the title of “pathetic”.

Saturday games…

Overall: 97-18 (84.3%)
Vs. Spread: 37-28 (56.9%)
Overall (SEC): 6-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 4-2 (66.7%)

(15-2, 2-0) Florida [72] vs. (9-5, 0-2) Auburn [56]: Despite their superior experience, the Tigers are hopelessly thin on talent and personel, and it was obvious in this game. Only seven Tigers managed to score, though three pitched in more than ten, led by Prowell with 13 points and 9 rebounds. Lucas has stepped up his play recently, with 16 points in this game following 19 at Alabama. Also contributing 16 was the ever-talented Calathes, who hit 4-of-8 from behind the arc. The Gators’ hot-shooting and forced turnovers won them this game, as Auburn outrebounded Florida by a pretty significant margin. Oddly, only 12 foul shots were taken total in the game, which favors the visitor.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators simply continued forward with this win, as they were fully expected to take the “W” in this one.
Impact [Auburn]: Unless the Tigers can begin winning games like this one, their post-season hopes are pretty much over barring a massive surge.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s +7 turnover margin

(7-7, 1-0) Kentucky [79] vs. (16-1, 1-1) #17 Vanderbilt [73]: The Wildcats are dangerous at home (unless your team’s name is San Diego or Gardner-Webb) and the Commodores’ 3-game win streak in Rupp Arena finally came to a close in double overtime in this upset. Both teams shot well and forced an ton of turnovers, but the ‘Cats brought the “W” home with an absolutely tremendous rebounding advantage. In the battle of SEC Freshman of the Year candidates, Patterson grabbed the edge with 23 points versus Ogilvy’s 16, while Patterson managed 12 rebounds for his fifth double-double of the season and Ogilvy grabbed only 5. Foster and Bradley, for Vandy and Kentucky respectively, also stood out scoring a combined 40 points on 12-of-27 shooting.
Impact [Kentucky]: This win will prove a tremendous ego boost and a small step towards a giant uphill climb towards post-season play for Kentucky, but the ‘Cats must stay focused on a road trip to Mississippi State.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores have a tough stretch ahead which will answer some questions about the value of Vandy’s 16-game win streak.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s doubling of Vanderbilt’s rebounds (42-21)

(14-1, 1-1) #13 Ole Miss [74] vs. (7-9, 0-2) LSU [71]: Dominating most of the game, the Rebels went into a mental cruise-control and let the Tigers play their way back into the game late. In fact, if the Rebels hadn’t hit a half-court three just before the halftime buzzer, this game would have gone to overtime. The game was a story of balanced depth versus the opposite, as five Rebels scored in double digits while only two more players than that even scored at all for LSU. Thornton had a big game for the Tigers, pouring in 25 points on 9-of-20 shooting, although 20 attempts for a single player is a sign of a thin team. Warren and Polynice led the Rebs with 15 points apeice while senior Kenny Williams scored his fourth double-double of the season with 10 points and 12 rebounds.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels responded to their first loss by almost blowing a huge lead at home to the SEC’s worst team…will they be able to bounce back and re-focus?
Impact [LSU]: While any post-season play is probably an unrealistic goal for the Tigers, this was as close to a “moral victory” as you can get.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 46.7% free throw shooting

(11-5, 2-0) Mississippi State [60] vs. (9-5, 0-1) Georgia [49]: MSU has now held two consecutive opponents to their lowest point total and field-goal percentage of their respective seasons, as Georgia managed only 49 points on 24.6% shooting (16-of-65). State also set a new MSU record for most team blocks in a game with 16, while Varnado – who leads the NCAA in both total blocks and blocks per game – swatted 10 shots and tied his previous all-time MSU record of most blocks in a game. Varnado also scored 9 points and 9 rebounds, falling just one shy in each category of a triple-double, while Gordon shot 6-of-12 for 15 points. UGA could find no rythm, although Gaines managed 15 points on 5-of-18 shooting and 6 rebounds.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs have now won 6-straight and have momentum moving into the heart of the SEC schedule, hosting Kentucky on Tuesday on ESPN.
Impact [Georgia]: UGA doesn’t look to compete in the East, and this loss won’t prove pivotal in any meaningful way.
Stat of the Game: MSU shooting 16.9% better than Georgia

(8-8, 0-2) South Carolina [56] vs. (14-1, 2-0) #7 Tennessee [80]: The Vols responded on the road in a tremendous way, absolutely dominating the Gamecocks from tip-off. Truly great teams can rely upon many players to score, and 10 Vols scored, but none more than 15. Those 15 were from Jujuan Smith, as he shot 5-of-9 and claimed 8 rebounds. Archie, Fredrick, and Downey combined for 46 points and 36 attempts for South Carolina, and only four other Gamecocks scored – none more than 4.
Impact [South Carolina]: USC will need to take the loss in stride and move on, and play more efficiently at home.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols are riding on an SEC-best nine-game win streak.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee, who ranks 10th in the conference in rebound margin, outrebounding USC by 18

Recap of today’s Arkansas vs. Alabama game, along with this week’s Wirth Value, upcoming.

Saturday and Sunday odds…

Apologies for the delayed post. I realize this is in between games, but that’s the best I can do. Forgive the poor formatting, and recaps for all games will come tonight or tomorrow.

(13-1, 0-1) #13 Ole Miss [#21] vs. (7-8, 0-1) LSU [#189]
Spread: Ole Miss by 13.5
Pick: Ole Miss – The Tigers lost at 8-7 Wichita State by 20
—Keys: The Tigers will need to find offense in a hurry to keep this game close.

(8-7, 0-1) South Carolina [#143] vs. (13-1, 1-0) #7 Tennessee [#3]
Spread: Tennessee by 5.5
Pick: Tennessee – The Vols are much more capable offensively
—Keys: Will the Vols choke as badly as they did at Texas on the road?

Sunday Odds

(12-3, 1-0) Arkansas [#38] vs. (11-5, 0-1) Alabama [#82]
Spread: Arkansas by 10
Pick: Alabama – The Razorbacks should win the game, but the Tide have played big games closely
—Keys: Both teams rely heavily on their inside games, but which will shoot better from three?

Thursday game…

Overall: 95-18 (84.1%)
Vs. Spread: 36-27 (57.1%)
Overall (SEC): 4-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 3-1 (75.0%)

(9-4, 0-1) Auburn [70] vs. (12-3, 1-0) Arkansas [76]: An intensely close battle throughout, the Tigers led about 40% of the game but went cold when it counted and Arkansas managed to pull out the win in front of an ESPN audience. Beverly and Weems pulled the ‘Backs through to the win, each with 17 points, on their combined 8-of-12 shooting behind the arc. This coming from the worst 3-point shooting team in the SEC. Auburn surprisingly outrebounded Arkansas, but couldn’t match the depth of their opponent. Barrett led the Tigers, despite shooting only 2-of-10 from three, with 21 points, while Tolbert and Prowell pitched in 17 and 13 points apiece.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers needed this win if they were to have seriously challenged in the conference. There’s a long way to go, but losing an intra-divisional game at home is not a good first step.
Impact [Arkansas]: This should serve as a nice confidence-booster in the Razorbacks on their search for an SEC West title, as these players – despite their experience – aren’t used to winning on the road.
Stat of the Game: Only six Auburn players managing to score

Time to take a breather, as SEC action continues Saturday en masse.

Wednesday games, Thursday odds…

Overall: 94-18 (83.9%)
Vs. Spread: 35-27 (56.5%)
Overall (SEC): 3-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 2-1 (66.7%)

(9-4) Georgia [79] vs. (7-7, 0-1) Georgia Tech [72]: The Bulldogs played decent defensively, but better offensively – shooting 50.0% from the floor and a hot 46.7% from behind the arc. Humphrey scored 20+ for the second game in a row with tonight’s 23 on 9-of-12 shooting, while Gaines pitched in 16 along with 6 rebounds and 5 asissts (to only 1 turnover). Free throws killed the Yellow Jackets – in a close-game situation, no less – as they managed only 54.3% from the charity stripe.
Impact [Georgia]: The win provides the Bulldogs with a decent record coming into SEC play, helping their hopes for the postseason.
Stat of the Game: UGA’s two leading scorers combining for 75.0% shooting

(7-8, 0-1) LSU [39] vs. (10-5, 1-0) Mississippi State [61]: A surprising blowout road victory for the Bulldogs, the Tigers set new season-lows in field goal percentage, field goals made, and points scored. MSU leads the SEC and ranks 11th in the nation in field goal percentage defense. Varnado came up huge, falling just three blocks shy of MSU’s third-ever triple-double, and his second double-double of the season, with 13 points, 17 rebounds, and 7 blocks. Gordon also scored 13, but on 5-of-13 shooting. Mississippi State also outrebounded the Tigers by a full 15 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: Although the Tigers were okay to lose this game, a 7-8 record and an early SEC loss comes close to eliminating LSU from postseason play barring a remarkable comeback.
Impact [Miss. State]: A 22-point road win in the SEC is impressive in any light. With the win, and Ole Miss losing to Tennessee, State’s chances in the West are off on the right foot.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 14-of-66 (21.2%) shooting, along with 2-of-17 (11.8%) from three.

(16-0, 1-0) #17 Vanderbilt [80] vs. (8-7, 0-1) South Carolina [73]: Free throws allowed made the difference in this game, as Vanderbilt maintained a close lead throughout, and shot marginally better. The Gamecocks handled the ball well, only turning the ball over 10 times and forcing 17 Commodore turnovers. Ogilvy led Vanderbilt to the win, shooting 9-of-17 for 25 points, along with a 7-of-8 mark from the charity stripe, while Foster slacked a bit – shooting only 4-of-11 for 13 points. Downey and Fredrick dominated Gamecock touches, combining for an insane 43 attempts, and the two only hit 16 of those. Day recorded 14, and only three other USC players scored.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The win solidifies the Commodores’ hold on the SEC’s only remaining undefeated team as they remain contenders for the overall SEC title.
Impact [South Carolina]: The loss was expected, but an enormous turn-around will be needed if USC expects to contend for a post-season bid.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt attempting 13 more free throws than USC

(13-1, 1-0) #7 Tennessee [85] vs. (13-1, 0-1) #13 Ole Miss [83]: This game proved to me even more that the Rebels are the real deal. Yes, they lost…but they were down bu double-digits late in the game before mounting a massive comeback to take a two-point lead. That kind of gut is remarkable in a team this young, and is a case of absolutely amazing coaching by Andy Kennedy. Both teams had two players score 20 points or more on the night, with Tennessee being led by Tyler Smith and Jujuan Smith – each with 21 points and 6 rebounds. The Rebels’ scorers were Warren, who notched 24 on 7-of-18 shooting, and Polynice with 20. The Rebels outrebounded the Volunteers 43-36 to stay in the game, because the Vols outshot their opponents by 3.4%.
Impact [Tennessee]: The game exposed Tennessee’s weak defense, yet proved that no team (outside of Texas, that is) can stop their offense. A win tonight was impressive, as it was likely one of Tennessee’s top 5 most challenging games in SEC play.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This is a defining moment for the Rebels. All too often, a young team loses for the first time and suffers that all-too familiar “hangover”. Coupled with the pressure of SEC play, Ole Miss will need to bounce back from the loss quickly.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s outstanding 24:9 assist-to-turnover ratio

Thursday Odds

(9-3) Auburn [#173] vs. (11-3) Arkansas [#55]
Spread: Arkansas by 4.5
Pick: Arkansas – Auburn is getting blown out by quality competition at home.
—Keys: Will Pelphrey be able to overcome Arkansas’ abysmal record on the road in the past four years?

Tuesday game, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 90-18 (83.3%)
Vs. Spread: 32-26 (55.2%)

I’m unveiling a new couple of new elements to the breakdown of each game as we enter SEC play. The first is called the “Impact”. It’s pretty self explanatory – it’ll breakdown the psychological and tangible impact of each result on both teams involved in the game. Secondly, in the odds, are the “Keys” – things to watch that could away the game.

(11-5, 0-1) Alabama [83] vs. (14-2, 1-0) Florida [90]: This was simply a bad matchup for the Tide, as neither team played defense and the Gators outshot the Tide. In yet another close game, the victor shot from the charity stripe better, as Florida shot 80.8% from the line. Lucas and Calathes, both freshmen, shot the Gators to victory on a combined 11-of-21 performance, as Speights spent most of the game in foul trouble, and the two scored 19 and 21 points respectively. Gee and Hendrix were Alabama’s entire arsenal, as Gee notched 32 on 14-of-(what?!?) 25 attempts, while Hendrix only managed 11 attempts, hit 7 of them, and connected on 12-of-(what?!?) 21 attempts from the free throw line. That’s the most attempts from the stripe I’ve ever seen on a single player.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide’s loss tonight is devastating. Regardless of if the Gators end up in the tournament, if Alabama finds itself on the bubble this loss at home will not look good. UA has now lost 2 of the last 3 on their approach to Fayetteville to meet Arkansas on Sunday. If the Tide can’t pull off an upset win at Arkansas, momentum will turn south and Alabama’s chances in the West will drastically decrease, while the following game at Georgia could be a “hangover” loss waiting to happen.
Impact [Florida]: The win was gigantic for the Gators, as this win sets Florida up for a 2-0 start as they face Auburn at home on Saturday before one of their toughest matchups so far on Wednesday at #13 Ole Miss. The Gators are well on their way to proving their worth to the NCAA committee.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 23.1% free throw shooting advantage

Wednesday Odds

(8-4) Georgia [#190] vs. (7-6, 0-1) Georgia Tech [#90]
Spread: Georgia by 1.5
Pick: Georgia – It’s tough to make this call, because the Yellow Jackets are playing to the level of their competition.
—Keys: Georgia needs not overlook Tech towards SEC play, and play solid defense.

(7-7) LSU [#177] vs. (9-5) Mississippi State [#134]
Spread: Even
Pick: Mississippi State – LSU is playing horribly, and State’s main contributors are not new to this challenge. With that said, this pick guarantees an LSU win, because I apparently can not pick MSU correctly.
—Keys: Mississippi State’s interior defense, as the LSU guards have been utterly incapable so far.

(15-0) #17 Vanderbilt [#6] vs. (8-6) South Carolina [#147]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 8
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Commodores’ potent offense will stretch this out a bit more than 8 points.
—Keys: As long as Vanderbilt doesn’t suddenly go cold, this game shouldn’t be too tough.

(12-1) #7 Tennessee [#4] vs. (13-0) #13 Ole Miss [#20]
Spread: Tennessee by 11
Pick: Ole Miss – Although I still think the Vols take the game, Ole Miss has the offense to keep up with Tennessee.
—Keys: Will the Ole Miss frosh choke on the road in a big-game situation?

Wirth Value: Week Nine

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (59.85, NC)
2. Ole Miss (48.55, NC)
3. Tennessee (44.50, NC)
4. Florida (42.40, NC)
5. Alabama (36.11, NC)
6. South Carolina (28.89, NC)
7. Arkansas (26.17, NC)
8. Miss. State (22.88, NC)
9. Kentucky (22.66, NC)
10. Georgia (16.57, NC)
11. Auburn (14.48, NC)
12. LSU (11.53, NC)

Defense

1. Arkansas (46.27, NC)
2. Miss. State (43.15, NC)
3. Florida (34.96, +1)
4. Kentucky (33.64, +1)
5. LSU (31.50, -2)
6. Ole Miss (31.28, +1)
7. Georgia (27.65, -1)
8. Tennessee (25.05, +2)
9. South Carolina (24.12, NC)
10. Auburn (19.01, -2)
11. Vanderbilt (17.87, +1)
12. Alabama (12.79, -1)

Overall

1. Ole Miss (123.70, NC)
2. Florida (110.33, NC)
3. Tennessee (107.47, NC)
4. Vanderbilt (104.94, NC)
5. Arkansas (91.53, NC)
6. Miss. State (83.16, NC)
7. Alabama (72.50, NC)
8. South Carolina (72.48, NC)
9. Kentucky (61.33, +3)
10. Georgia (50.92, -1)
11. LSU (45.64, -1)
12. Auburn (44.58, -1)

—Despite losing 6 of their last 8, the Wildcats improved dramatically – mainly due to Louisville’s decent RPI. Their efficiency is slightly better overall, however.

—An extremely small amount of change in the general scheme of things, with Kentucky being the biggest mover. Mississippi State is closing the gap defensively on Arkansas, while Ole Miss continues to dominate the efficiency numbers. It will be interesting to see if the Rebels can keep up their play in the SEC.

—Tennessee drove up their defensive numbers a bit after narrow wins over Xavier and Gonzaga.

Sunday games…

Overall: 90-18 (83.3%)
Vs. Spread: 32-26 (55.2%)

(9-3) Auburn [57] vs. (12-3) Xavier [80]: The Muskateers were absolutely scorching tonight, shooting 58.7% from the field and an even more impressive 61.5% from behind the arc. The Tigers were outclassed from the beginning, being outshot and outrebounded heavily. Tolbert, Barrett, and Hargrove each scored 11 points on a combined 12-of-24 shooting performance, while the rest of the team shot 7-of-29 (24.1%). Finally, there were a surprisingly few amount of foul shots as well – 21 attempted total.
Stat of the Game: Five Muskateers scoring as many or more than Auburn’s leading scorers

Saturday games, Sunday odds…

Overall: 89-18 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 31-26 (54.4%)

(6-7) Kentucky [75] vs. (10-4, 0-1) Louisville [89]: Turnovers doomed the Wildcats, as this game was relatively competitive otherwise, with both teams shooting relatively well and rebounding an identical 32 times. Patterson has the worst game of his career as a result of good gameplanning by Pitino, as he shot only 3-of-14 from the field for only 6 points and an equal amount of turnovers. Bradley and Crawford carried the ‘Cat offense on their shoulders, as Bradley brought down 27 points in the best performance of his season and Crawford contributed 19 points and 8 rebounds but also turning the ball over 7 times. No other Kentucky player scored more than 8.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 11:21 assist-to-turnover ratio

(15-0) #16 Vanderbilt [97] vs. (11-3) Massachusetts [88]: The Commodores are simply playing chicken by daring teams to challenge them offensively without playing anything resembling defense…and it’s working. Despite allowing the Minutemen to shoot 12 more times, outrebound Vanderbilt, and win the turnover battle, Vandy simply overcame it with their lights-out shooting. Foster scored broke the 30-point barrier for the first time with 32 on 11-of-18 shooting (including an unbelievable 8-of-12 from behind the arc), needless to mention his eight rebounds, while Ogilvy proves his deserving of the SEC Freshman of the Year honors with tonight’s 25 points on 9-of-15 shooting and 11 rebounds (his second double-double of the season). Also of note, sophomore Jermaine Beal recorded a career-high 19 points. The only thing that worries me is how lost the ‘Dores would seem to be without Ogilvy or Foster.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s scorching 13-of-23 shooting (56.5%) from three

(8-4) Georgia [67] @ (11-4) Gonzaga [75]: Honestly, I am truly impressed that the Dawgs kept this one competitive. They did so on the back of Humphrey and Gaines, who scored 24 and 21 points respectively. Depth was an issue, as only five other ‘Dawgs scored at all, and none over seven points. In the end, Georgia couldn’t defend the talented shooters of the Bulldogs out west.
Stat of the Game: Gonzaga’s 47.4% mark from behind the arc

(7-7) LSU [53] @ (14-1) #12 Texas A&M [79]: This game went about how I expected, as the Tigers are just not up to the level of competing with teams of this quality as of yet. LSU was held to only 37.1% shooting (against A&M’s 51.9%) and 3-of-15 from behind the arc. Depth is obviously an issue, as only seven squad members scored for the Tigers, led by Randolph’s 16 points (despite taking 17 attempts) and seven rebounds. Thornton was the only other LSU player above 10 points with 12 on 5-of-16 shooting.
Stat of the Game: The Aggies’ 27 free throws attempted against LSU’s 8

(11-3) Arkansas [85] @ (11-2) Baylor [78]: Weems pulled this barn-burner out for the Razorbacks, who trailed late before regaining the lead within the final two minutes to watch Weems hit crucial free throws to keep the Bears out of it. Weems led the ‘Backs to the most impressive win of their season with 21 points on 7-of-11 shooting, while Thomas and Beverly combined for 28 points on 9-of-20 shooting.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 9-of-15 (60.0%) three-point shooting

(9-5) Mississippi State [77] vs. (8-6) Lafayette [53]: The Leopards did everything they could do to remain competitive in this one, pulling the game within four late into the second stanza. The Bulldogs, after toying with their lineup and employing backups for a large part of the game, redispatched their starting lineup and subsequently stormed to a 20-2 run in which Lafayette was held without a field goal for over six minutes. Varnado, who continues to lead the SEC in blocks by a large margin, swatted five shots and scored a career-high 16 points on a perfect 5-of-15 shooting to go with 12 rebounds for the first double-double of his season. Hansbrough led the Bulldogs with 17 on a 5-of-8 performance from behind the arc, and Gordon managed 15 on a miserable 6-of-19 performance from the floor. Is it just me, or should a player not be attempting 19 shots if he’s only making six of them?
Stat of the Game: Lafayette’s 6th-ranked 3pt% held to 6-of-25 (24.0%)

(8-6) South Carolina [61] vs. (11-3) UNC-Asheville [58]: The Gamecocks are just the latest SEC team to fall to a smaller conference, this time the Big South as the culprit. Again, depth was the issue, as only six USC players managed to get on the board, and just three of those with 10 or more. Downey shot decently (8-of-19) and put up 18 points, but Frederick shot badly (5-of-13) despite his 14 points and Archie grabbed eight rebounds in the loss. Fouls being called usually favors the home team, and only 10 shots were taken in the entire game…total.
Stat of the Game: Each team attempting only five foul shots

Sunday Odds

(9-2) Auburn [#171] vs. (11-3) Xavier [#13]
Spread: Xavier by 6.5
Pick: Xavier – The Tigers’ record is heavily inflated by cupcakes and Xavier is the real deal.

Friday game, Saturday odds…

Overall: 84-16 (84.0%)
Vs. Spread: 28-24 (53.8%)

Big day in SEC basketball (and NCAA basketball) coming up today, as several teams focus in on marquee matchups in their struggle to get more than three teams to the NCAA’s.

Friday Game(s)

(11-4) Alabama [93] vs. (5-13) Chicago State [79]: Apparently the Tide left their defense at home, as the Cougars were allowed to shoot 45.3% from the field, including 44.0% from behind the arc and won the turnover battle along with doubling Alabama’s steal numbers. What ‘Bama did do, though, they did tremendously – rebounding. Both Gee and Hendrix (call them Mr. Alabama #1 and #2) each had an absolutely massive game, scoring 17 and 19 points respectively on a combined 14-of-28 shooting performance, and grabbed 14 and 13 rebounds respectively. Hendrix added 4 blocks just for fun. Riley, Pickett, and Hollinger all played well, pitching in 18, 14, and 14 points respectively.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 45-22 rebounding advantage

Saturday Odds

(6-6) Kentucky [#241] vs. (9-4, 0-1) Louisville [#105]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: Louisville – I’ll state the obvious…if the Wildcats can’t beat Gardner-Webb or San Diego at home, who’s to say they can defeat the Cardinals? I’m going with Louisville in the victory.

(14-0) #16 Vanderbilt [#8] vs. (11-2) Massachusetts [#14]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 5.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – Despite a couple of decent wins, UMass has lost to opponents weaker than the Commodores by more.

(8-3) Georgia [#192] @ (10-4) Gonzaga [#28]
Spread: Gonzaga by 11.5
Pick: Gonzaga – Georgia is thin right now, and all of the Zags’ losses have been to quality opponents.

(7-6) LSU [#194] @ (13-1) #12 Texas A&M [#19]
Spread: Texas A&M by 11.5
Pick: Texas A&M – The Tigers lost at Tulane by half this much, I think the Aggies cover the spread easily.

(10-3) Arkansas [#87] @ (11-1) Baylor [#53]
Spread: Arkansas by 3
Pick: Baylor – I think the Bears pull this one out…their only loss was to #4 and undefeated Washington State by three in a game they lead for the majority.

Also picking: (8-5) Mississippi State [#157] over (8-5) Lafayette [#158] in Jackson, MS — (8-5) South Carolina [#126] over (10-3) UNC-Asheville [#175] at home in a close one .

Thursday games, Friday odds…

Overall: 83-16 (83.8%)
Vs. Spread: 28-24 (53.8%)

(14-0) #16 Vanderbilt [76] vs. (3-9) Rice [58]: The stats surprisingly tell a much different tale than the score does, which owes itself in large part to efficient coaching. The Commodores took only five more shots, shot somewhat better from both the field, three-point range, and from the charity stripe, and were outrebounded 36-33. Shan Foster continued his campaign for SEC Player of the Year with 24 points on 8-of-14 shooting (4-of-9 from three), while Olgivy notched 14 on 7-of-10 shooting and nine rebounds. Vanderbilt needs to learn how to take care of the ball before conference play.
Stat of the Game: The Owls’ 1:4 assist-to-turnover ratio

Friday Odds

Picking: (10-4) Alabama [#72] over (5-12) Chicago State [#208] at home

Wednesday games, Thursday odds…

Overall: 82-16 (83.7%)
Vs. Spread: 28-23 (54.9%)

(7-6) LSU [63] @ (10-4) Tulane [68]: The Tulane Green Wave completed their two-game sweep over SEC teams by defeating LSU after a victory over Georgia earlier in the month. Terry Martin carried the Tigers in the loss with 19 points on 7-of-17 shooting, while Randolph shot 5-of-11 for 15 points to mark the only two Tigers scoring in double figures. As I’ve pointed out before, the better free-throw shooting team wins in a close game, and Tulane shot 89.5% while LSU shot 64.3%.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 23 three-pointers attempted and only 35 otherwise

(8-5) South Carolina [90] vs. (4-10) Radford [63]: The Gamecocks handled the Highlanders well, dominating every statistical category except for three-point shooting, in which Radford managed an identical 41.7% mark. Fredrick fell just two points shy of his career high with 26 on 8-of-16 shooting, along with 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and only two turnovers, while Dominique Archie recorded his first career double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds. Downey shot well (8-of-14) also on his way to 23 points and seven steals.

(13-0) #17 Ole Miss [86] vs. (3-7) Alabama A&M [50]: Another blowout in a rather boring night of SEC basketball, the Rebels smeared the Bulldogs, posting a 46-19 lead at halftime. No A&Mer scored more than 12 and only two with 10 or more, while four Rebels notched double-figure nights. Curtis recorded his fifth double-double of the year with 10 points and rebounds apiece, while Huertas tied his career high with 17 points on 6-of-11 shooting. The Rebels shot an impressive 53.0% from the field and 47.8% from behind the arc.
Stat of the Game: The Rebels’ 21:12 assist-to-turnover ratio

(13-2) Florida [88] vs. (6-6) High Point [70]: The Gators played very well offensively, but showed their lack of defense again, allowing the Panthers to shoot 40.3% from the field and 42.9% from behind the arc. Speights had a massive game, notching career highs in points and rebounds to score his fourth double-double, shooting 10-of-14 for 24 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. Hodge continues to handle the ball excellently, dishing out 7 assists compared to only 2 turnovers.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s +14 rebound advantage

(9-2) Auburn [76] vs. (3-9) Texas A&M Corpus Christi [58]: Despite being heavily outrebounded, the Tigers outshot the Islanders in both percentages and attempts to pull out a easy victory. Most noteably, Auburn forced 26 turnovers and did not seem to miss Barber too badly – albeit against a weak opponent. Prowell scored 20 points on 9-of-13 shooting combined with a game-high 6 steals, while Barrett brought down a team-high 8 rebounds along with 14 points.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s -14 turnover ratio

Thursday Odds

(13-0) #16 Vanderbilt [#6] vs. (3-8) Rice [#259]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 25
Pick: Vanderbilt – Rice is losing big games by huge margins

Official Multi-Blogger Week Eight Poll

I have no link for everyone’s votes – if I get it, I will post it first thing.

1. Memphis (NC, 5 votes)
2. North Carolina (NC, 2 votes)
3. Kansas (NC)
4. Washington State (NC)
5. UCLA (NC)
6. Michigan State (NC)
7. Tennessee (+4)
8. Duke (+2)
9. Georgetown (NC)
10. Marquette (+2)
11. Indiana (+2)
12. Texas A&M (+2)
13. Butler (-2)
14. Dayton (+11)
15. Texas (-8)
16. Vanderbilt (NC)
17. Ole Miss (+3)
18. Villanova (+1)
19. Rhode Island (+3)
20. Pittsburgh (-12)
21. Miami-FL (-4)
22. Wisconsins (NR)
23. Clemson (NC)
24. USC (NR)
25. Arizona (-7)

Others Receiving Votes – most to least: St. Mary’s, Stanford, Oklahoma, Providence, Xavier, West Virginia, Gonzaga

New: (22) Wisconsin, (24) USC
Out: (21) BYU, (24) West Virginia

—Big moving week, as we observed our biggest gain and our biggest drop of the season thus far.

—Dayton rose by an impressive 11 slots after their 25-point slaughtering of Pittsburgh at home – the Flyers’ only loss is at George Mason earlier in the season and they have now recorded victories at Miami of Ohio, at Louisville, and Pittsburgh at home.

—Speaking of Dayton’s victory over Pittsburgh, the Panthers’ loss sent them freefalling an entire 12 spots. Although their one-point victory over the Blue Devils of Duke is impressive, that’s the only solid victory Pitt has managed.

—After an incredible 11-0 start, including victories at UCLA and a blowout of Tennessee at home, the Longhorns of Texas have now lost their last two in a row at Michigan State and a heartbreaking one-point, last-season loss to Wisconsin at home. The losses have dropped Texas by eight.

—The Volunteers of Tennessee are on the rise after dropping that embarassing 19 point decision at Texas, posting victories over both Xavier and Gonzaga on the road. Next up is a surprisingly talented Ole Miss team that could very well have enormous implications in the race for the conference title.

—Speaking of the Rebels, Ole Miss remains one of few undefeateds in the nation with their nice three-point victory over Clemson and great 20-point blowout of a talented Southern Miss squad. The Rebs have already recorded victories over Winthrop, DePaul, and South Alabama…none overly impressive, but all decent.

Tuesday games, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 81-16 (83.5%)
Vs. Spread: 27-23 (54.0%)

(10-4) Alabama [61] vs. (12-1) #16 Clemson [87]: After falling by three to Ole Miss and defeating Mississippi State by two, the Tigers of Clemson utilized a scorching second half to dominate the Crimson Tide on their home court. Despite shooting an impressive 9-of-11 from the charity stripe, Alabama shot miserably from behind the arc and the team’s lack of experienced depth truly shone through in this one. Hendrix was held to a mere 14 points and seven rebounds, but Gee – the team’s other clear leader – brought down a team-high 17 points, including a perfect 5-of-5 mark from the free throw line.
Stat of the Game: Mykal Riley’s 1-of-13 shooting

Wednesday Odds

(7-5) LSU [#184] @ (9-4) Tulane [#73]
Spread: LSU by 2
Pick: Tulane – I’m picking the Green Wave to defeat the Tigers…they defeated a much better Georgia team by one at home.

Also picking: (7-5) South Carolina [#97] over (4-9) Radford [#329] at home — (12-0) Ole Miss [#11] over (3-6) Alabama A&M [#327] at home— (12-2) Florida [#123] over (6-5) High Point [#258] at home — (8-2) Auburn [#164] over (3-8) Texas A&M C.C. [#315] at home

Monday games, Tuesday odds…

Overall: 80-16 (83%)
Vs. Spread: 26-23 (53%)

(6-6) Kentucky [92] vs. (3-9, 0-2) Florida International [49]: The Wildcats finally took care of business against a weaker opponent the way they are supposed to. Three – yes, three – ‘Cats scored 20+ points including Patterson’s 20, Meeks’ 21, and Bradley’s 22. The two combined for 17-of-34 shooting and Crawford scored 11 to round out UK players in double figures. Kentucky basically owned the Golden Panthers in every way.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 11-of-22 shooting from behind the arc

(13-0) #17 Vanderbilt [97] vs. (5-9, 1-1) Iona [73]: The Commodores’ defense continues to prove its ineptitude and their offense continues to bail them out. Vandy allowed the Gaels to score 73 on 49.1% shooting, but the ‘Dores shot even better at 56.0%. Both Foster and Ogilvy recorded 20 points, AJ hitting 12-of-13 free throws and claiming nine rebounds, with Foster taking the most shots (13). No other Vanderbilt player attempted more than seven.
Stat of the Game: Vandy’s 11-of-20 (55.0%) shooting from three

Tuesday Odds

(10-3) Alabama [#56] vs. (11-1) #16 Clemson [#42]
Spread: Even
Pick: Clemson – The Tide haven’t been playing well and Clemson is formidable. I believe the Tigers will win this game.

More bad luck for Auburn…

As if the season hasn’t been riddled with enough obstacles for the Tigers, this will prove a huge blow right before SEC play.

Korvotney Barber, who leads the nation with a 72.0% mark from the field – along with leading the Tigers in both scoring (14.8ppg) and rebounding (7.3rpg) – broke his hand in the recent game versus Towson and is expectedto be out four to six weeks…right in the middle of the heart of SEC play.

Despite Auburn’s 8-2 record, the Tigers are not playing well and this is sure to destroy any chances for them to compete in any way in-conference.