Wednesday games…

…will be recapped tomorrow, along with odds for Saturday. Appologies - ya know how life goes sometimes.

Tuesday game…

Overall: 115-23 (83.3%)
Vs. Spread: 49-38 (56.3%)
Overall (SEC): 22-5 (81.5%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 16-11 (59.3%)
East vs. West: East, 8-3

(12-9, 1-5) Alabama [86] vs. (18-2, 5-1) #3 Tennessee [93]: Tennessee hit every clutch free throw, every big-time three, and forced 20 ‘Bama turnovers (despite 23 of their own) to pull away in the end of this game. Alabama managed to force their own tempo in the first half, which ended tied 33-33. However, the Vols pushed the ball up and down court in the second half, which favored their much more athletic team by a great deal. Each team seemed to have two stars who made big plays, those being Lofton and Jujuan Smith for the Vols and Gee and Hendrix for the Tide. Lofton recorded his second-straight impressive outing, shooting 5-of-9 from behind the arc for 23 points while Jujuan Smith hit 8-of-13 from the floor for 22. Tyler Smith also had a big game, bringing down 17 points and 11 rebounds for his third double-double as a Volunteer. Alonzo Gee was spectacular in the loss, hitting 10-of-17 from the floor, 9 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Hendrix simply couldn’t break the Vols interior defense to handle the ball enough without turning the ball over, but still shot 9-of-12 from the floor and claimed his 11th double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are very nearly out of the race for the West, even with an undefeated record from here on. A 7-5 or 8-4 record here on out will be necessary to be in contention for an NIT bid.
Impact [Tennessee]: Winning tough road games is always a boost long-term, but that all-too familiar “hangover” effect could linger, and the Vols don’t have time for that as they now travel to one of their main competitors for the SEC title: Mississippi State. The Vols will need to stay focused on the road.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s impressive +9 rebound advantage

Wednesday odds…

Overall: 114-23 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 48-38 (55.8%)
Overall (SEC): 21-5 (80.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 15-11 (57.7%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(9-10, 1-4) South Carolina [#128] vs. (11-6, 2-2) Georgia [#96]
Spread: South Carolina by 2.5
Pick: South Carolina - Although the Bulldogs have played relatively well on the road, the Gamecocks are better than their record suggests.
—Keys: USC’s three-point shooting - the Gamecocks rank 2nd in the league in 3PT%…if they’re falling, it could be a long night for Georgia.

(15-3, 2-3) #15 Ole Miss [#14] vs. (17-3, 2-3) #16 Vanderbilt [#13]
Spread: Ole Miss by 5.5
Pick: Ole Miss - Similar styles of play favors the home team, and Vanderbilt has been terrible on the road.
—Keys: Turnovers - the Rebels can force them and the ‘Dores tend to give a lot of them up on the road. Which formerly undefeated team will prove its worth against the other?

(12-6, 2-3) Auburn [#124] vs. (7-12, 0-5) LSU [#213]
Spread: Auburn by 5
Pick: Auburn - LSU is simply awful. Absolutely awful.
—Keys: An Auburn loss would put them solidly outside the race for the West, with a team already 5-0 in the division. Will the Aubies choke?

(14-5, 3-2) Arkansas [#46] vs. (14-5, 5-0) Mississippi State [#52]
Spread: Arkansas by 2
Pick: Arkansas - This was a tough pick, but with both teams relying heavily on their defense, the game should be close - and as my saying goes, close games favor the home team.
—Keys: Mississippi State’s young bench will need to play as well on the road as they have at home, and the Razorbacks will need to find a solid replacement for suspended Charles Thomas.

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 114-23 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 48-38 (55.8%)
Overall (SEC): 21-5 (80.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 15-11 (57.7%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(12-8, 1-4) Alabama [#94] vs. (17-2, 4-1) #3 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 4
Pick: Tennessee - Although this should be a surprisingly competitive game, the Vols should cover four points.
—Keys: The Tide play a physical game which could put the Vols on their heels while on the road. If this is a close game, the game will favor Tennessee, as Alabama shoots a league-worst 59.2% from the charity stripe.

Wirth Value: Week Twelve

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (53.14, NC)
2. Tennessee (48.36, +1)
3. Florida (44.19, +1)
4. Ole Miss (44.13, -2)
5. Alabama (35.15, NC)
6. Arkansas (31.08, NC)
7. Kentucky (26.08, +2)
8. Miss. State (26.03, NC)
9. South Carolina (25.20, -2)
10. Auburn (20.72, +1)
11. Georgia (18.47, -1)
12. LSU (8.75, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (51.33, NC)
2. Arkansas (48.38, NC)
3. Georgia (38.70, NC)
4. Kentucky (36.77, +2)
5. Tennessee (36.74, NC)
6. Florida (34.38, -2)
7. Ole Miss (24.03, +1)
8. LSU (23.06, -1)
9. South Carolina (20.74, NC)
9. Alabama (17.78, +2)
10. Vanderbilt (17.19, NC)
12. Auburn (16.65, -2)

Overall

1. Tennessee (124.23, NC)
2. Florida (117.10, +1)
3. Ole Miss (110.41, -1)
4. Miss. State (100.79, +2)
5. Arkansas (97.64, NC)
6. Vanderbilt (94.92, -2)
7. Alabama (73.83, +1)
8. Kentucky (71.98, +2)
9. South Carolina (64.97, -2)
10. Georgia (64.78, -1)
11. Auburn (49.43, NC)
12. LSU (34.65, NC)

—Plenty of movement in all of the rankings this week, as some teams are on fire (see; Miss. State), some teams are improving (see; Kentucky), and some teams are sliding (see; Vanderbilt, South Carolina).

—Mississippi State is the hottest team in the SEC at 14-5 and 5-0 in the conference, and it’s showing in the rankings, as they raise two spots overall.

—Kentucky is playing much more efficiently in taking down both Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The major question will be hanging over the Wildcats for the remainder of the season…at 9-9 overall, is it too little too late for postseason play?

—The offensive numbers for the so-far impressive Ole Miss Rebels slid after a 20-point walloping by MSU and being held to their lowest point total of the season: 68 points.

—South Carolina has fallen to 1-4 after an impressive win at Arkansas, and coincidingly is falling in the rankings.

Pomeroy Ratings Week Twelve prediction…

These numbers come from Ken Pomeroy’s “Pomeroy Ratings“. I will post the Wirth Values for this week as soon as possible…likely tonight.

East

1. [#13] Tennessee (26-5, 13-3)
2. [#33] Florida (24-7, 11-5)
3. [#52] Kentucky (15-14, 9-7)
4. [#59] Vanderbilt (22-9, 7-9)
5. [#94] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)
5. [#76] South Carolina (14-16, 6-10)

West

1. [#26] Mississippi State (22-9, 13-3)
2. [#46] Arkansas (20-10, 9-7)
2. [#40] Ole Miss (23-7, 9-7)
4. [#90] Alabama (17-14, 6-10)
5. [#140] Auburn (15-14, 5-11)
6. [#139] LSU (9-21, 2-14)

SEC Overall Title: Mississippi State, Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Percentage Chance Of No More Losses

1. Mississippi State - 1.01%

Sunday game…

Overall: 114-23 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 48-38 (55.8%)
Overall (SEC): 21-5 (80.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 15-11 (57.7%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(18-3, 5-1) Florida [86] vs. (17-3, 2-3) #16 Vanderbilt [64]: Apparently this was blowout weekend, as all but one (maybe two, depending on if you count Arkansas’ 16-point win a blowout) of this weekend’s games were lopsided. The Gators absolutely dominated the Commodores, who have struggled against SEC competition. Neither team shot well from behind the arc - which was more than a little surprising - but the Gators’ excellent ball distribution was far too much for the ‘Dores defense (or lack thereof). Foster was held to what was easily his lowest point total of the season with only a very human 7 points on 3-of-9 shooting. Ogivly was comparative, hitting only 2-of-8 shots from the floor and turning the ball over 5 times. Five Gators pulled down double digits, led by Hodge’s 19 points. Calathes recorded his second double-double as a Gator in the form of 15 points, 10 assists, and only 2 turnovers. Werner tacked on 14 points and 9 rebounds while Speights added 12 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are off to a surprising 5-1 start to the season. With this blowout of a ranked opponent at home, it’s time to treat Florida as a serious contender for the overall SEC title.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores will now be looking to find their identity. With three conference losses in the first five games, two of them blowouts, Vandy isn’t looking like a threat in the East.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 26:10 (2.6:1) assist-to-turnover ratio

Saturday games, Sunday odds…

Overall: 113-23 (83.1%)
Vs. Spread: 47-38 (55.3%)
Overall (SEC): 20-5 (80.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 14-11 (56.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(9-9, 3-2) Kentucky [78] vs. (9-10, 1-4) South Carolina [70]: Ramel Bradley recorded his first double-double of the season in this win with 26 points and 10 rebounds. The Wildcats heavily outshot and outrebounded the Gamecocks, but turned the ball over 7 more times and allowed USC to attempt 14 more shots, explaining the close score. Patrick Patterson shook off his slow start to the SEC season in the form of 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks. South Carolina was wildly unidimensional as Downey, Fredrick, and Archie combined for 71% of USC’s attempts from the floor. Downey dominated the Gamecocks’ stats, scoring 24 points on 10-of-20 shooting and dishing out 7 assists to only 2 turnovers.
Impact [Kentucky]: The win keeps up the small amount of momentum the Wildcats have managed, and puts them on the good side of .500 in SEC play. However, Kentucky will need at least an 8-3 mark in the remaining regular-season games and a win or two in the conference tournament to even be considered for the NCAA’s.
Impact [South Carolina]: The NIT seems to be the main realistic goal for the Gamecocks, and this loss won’t set them back far from that goal. However, a huge run in a tough division will be required to be in contention.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 23 free throws attempted versus USC’s 3

(12-8, 1-4) Alabama [97] vs. (12-6, 2-3) Auburn [77]: In what would be the Tide’s most efficient offensive outing of the season, five Tide members recorded at least 16 points. The statistics of this blowout are surprisingly similar for each of the teams, except for Alabama attempting many more shots due to only turning the ball over 4 times and forcing 15 Auburn turnovers. Richard Hendrix hit 8-of-11 shots to lead all ‘Bama players with 20 points and 8 rebounds, while Jemison, Riley, and Gee each brought down 7 rebounds. Hollinger had his stroke going, shooting 6-of-9 from long range. Prowell and Barrett provided 42 of the Tigers’ points on a combined 15-of-24 shooting effort, though only one other Auburn member scored as many as 10.
Impact [Alabama]: If the Tide hopes to see any postseason play, this game must serve as a turnaround point in intensity for players such as Hollinger, Pickett, and Hillman. If Alabama is looking to challenge for the Western Division, losing too many more games isn’t an option.
Impact [Auburn]: Losing to your rival by 20 always hurts momentum. After getting LSU at home, the Tigers go on a brutal stretch that will literally define their season - a win over LSU will be a must.
Stat of the Game: Alabama attempting 15 more shots than Auburn

(14-5, 5-0) Mississippi State [88] vs. (15-3, 2-3) #15 Ole Miss [68]: In the surprise of the weekend, the Bulldogs manhandled the visiting Rebels. The Rebels are young and playing on the road and MSU has an enormous amount of momentum - it was a recipe for a blowout. After suffering an ankle injury a week or two ago, senior Charles Rhodes matched his career high in the game with 26 points on an impressive 12-of-14 shooting performance and grabbed six rebounds. Gordon claimed a mere 13 points but dished out 6 assists while turning the ball over only 1 time. Freshmen Riley Benock and Elgin Bailey each set new season highs with 12 and 8 points respectively, Benock hitting 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. Curtis was the only bright spot for the Rebels, as he hit 7-of-11 shots for 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season. Freshman phenom Chris Warren managed 15 points but shot 5-of-20 from the field, including 2-of-10 from long range. Despite attempting 16 more shots, the Rebels uncharacteristically shot very poorly in the game - as most teams have against MSU.
Impact [Miss. State]: One down, two to go. With all the momentum, now the Bulldogs travel to Fayetteville to face Arkansas followed by a home bout with #3 Tennessee. With attention growing on a nationa scale, how will MSU react with a conference title potentially on the line?
Impact [Ole Miss]: After suffering what was easily their worst loss of the season, the Rebels have no time to linger as #16 Vanderbilt comes to town. With such a young team, this loss could sting. The Rebels are still in the thick of things in the West, but MSU at home will be a must-win.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s 56.7% to 36.8% shooting advantage

(17-2, 4-1) #3 Tennessee [85] vs. (11-6, 2-2) Georgia [69]: Chris Lofton has finally done it. He’s finally had a big game and his team actually won. Lofton brought down 27 points on 9-of-17 shooting, including 7-of-13 from three. Tyler Smith was the only other Vol in double figures, scoring 17 on 7-of-9 shooting, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists (but 7 turnovers). Georgia’s three-point reliance proved their downfall, as they shot well from the field but only 4-of-22 (18.2%) from long range. Gaines still had a good game, notching 20 points on 9-of-17 shooting, while Bliss and Humphrey had 15 points apiece. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, no other player managed more than 6.
Impact [Tennessee]: This game serves as a warm-up before road trips to Alabama and Mississppi State. The @ MSU game could end up having overall SEC title implications.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little - the Bulldogs can still compete for a postseason bid if they can muster some wins on the road, but can’t lose many more if they expect to compete for the East.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 26 assists to Georgia’s 11

(7-12, 0-5) LSU [52] vs. (14-5, 3-2) Arkansas [68]: This game truly was about who wanted to lose more. After building a substantial lead, the Razorbacks let the Tigers storm back and compete before the ‘Backs would put them away into the second half. Neither team shot particularly well, although Arkansas was on fire from three, hitting 10-of-15 (66.7%) shots from beyond the arc. Beverly has apparently decided to make up for his slumping shooting with his rebounding numbers, as he grabbed a game-high 15 in this game along with 14 points for his second double-double of the season. Weems hit a perfect 5-of-5 from three to score a game-high 21 points and 7 rebounds. Only three Tigers scored more than 2 points, while Thornton led those with 20 points on 7-of-20 shooting.
Impact [LSU]: At this point, the Tigers should be focusing on saving face, as the postseason is out of contention without a miracle run in the conference tournament.
Impact [Arkansas]: The road win should help confidence on the road, and the ‘Backs will need it if they expect to compete for the division. The next game will be Mississippi State at home, which should be a win to build from for both teams.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 19.2% three-point shooting

Sunday Odds

(17-3, 4-1) Florida [#54] vs. (17-2, 2-2) #16 Vanderbilt [#11]
Spread: Florida by 5
Pick: Florida - Both teams play well offensively, and a matchup of similar styles often favors the home team.

Conference Report

With March quickly approaching, I thought this as good a time as any to break down each team in the conference, their remaining games, and their postseason outlook.

ALABAMA (11-8, 0-4)

Analysis: The Crimson Tide’s slow start to SEC play is due in large part to a lack of a third scoring option. Hendrix is still my pick for the best overall player in the SEC, averaging 19.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, and Gee is talented but often too out of control (1.2 assists to 2.1 turnovers per game). Gee’s main problem can’t be seen on the stat sheet, which is fundamentally poor decision-making - the guy is selfish. If the ball is in his hand, he’s going to shoot it one way or another and this is taking its toll on the rest of the team. Riley has spurts of hot shooting and has proven to be a threat from beyond the arc (42.4%) and yet he’s only averaging 13.1 points per game.

Gameplan: Limit Gee’s possessions and increase Riley’s by double, keeping Hendrix as the main anchor for the team. The plan should be to get the ball to Hendrix down low every time, with a kickout to Riley when the defense collapses. Utilize Gee on fastbreaks and when a lane opens up.

Schedule

vs. Auburn (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)

Prediction: (15-16, 4-12)

Postseason: The Tide would need to make the finals of the SEC tournament to make the NIT (2 or 3 seed), and only a win would grant them an NCAA bid (albeit as a 9 or 10 seed).

AUBURN (12-5, 2-2)

Analysis: Honestly, there’s no reason for Auburn not to compete this season. The Tigers’ efficiencies (both offensive and defensive) are miserable despite an experienced squad that was one W away from a Western Division title a year ago. The team can find offense occasionally (see; vs. Ole Miss) and are one of the best in the conference at forcing turnovers, but the lack of size hurts rebounding and their reliance on a three-ball that they do not shoot well limits any momentum they may find.

Gameplan: Use the team’s speed to your advantage - trap more. Slow down the opponents’ offense and make them work to score. The Tigers also need to create an offensive scheme that opens up Barber or Prowell in the paint, as Auburn’s field goal percentage is one of the best in the conference despite ranking 10th in three-point shooting. Barrett is taking entirely too many threes to only be hitting 32.9% of them.

Schedule

@ Alabama (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
vs. Miss. State (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
@ Arkansas (L)

Prediction: (16-13, 6-10)

Postseason: The Tigers would need to win in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the SEC Tournament to hope for an NIT bid (as a 4 or 5 seed), and winning the conference tournament would be the only vessel to the NCAA’s (as a 9 or 10 seed).

ARKANSAS (13-5, 2-2)

Analysis: Although sound defensively, the days are over in which this team could simply ride on the shoulders of hot shooting by Patrick Beverly. Beverly has slowed down a bit, hitting only 40.6% from the field and 36.5% from behind the arc. Not bad, mind you, but that’s not going to be enough to supply the entire team with offense. Beverly is also posting alarmingly high numbers of rebounds (5.9 per game), and when a shot guard is focusing that heavily on rebounding the ball it serves to purpose that his shot will be off. Although noone has really proven to be a three-point threat out of this team, Weems has stepped up with high percentages from the floor and leads the team in scoring (13.5ppg) although he tends to turn the ball over (3.4 per game).

Gameplan: The Razorbacks need to be focusing more heavily on an inside game offensively, as the guards are not as consistent as they need to be from beyond the arc. Townes, Thomas, and Washington are more than enough down low to rely on to score, with an occasional kickout to Beverly or drive by Weems. Although Hill isn’t nearly aggressive or nimble enough with the ball offensively, he’s a pretty consistent shooter from the paint - don’t be afraid to have him on the floor because not many in the conference can get to the basket with him down low.

Schedule

@ LSU (W)
vs. Miss. State (W)
vs. Florida (W)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (W)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. Auburn (W)

Prediction: (19-13, 8-

Postseason: With an already-decent RPI, the Razorbacks would be squarely on the bad side of the NCAA bubble with a one-and-done in the SEC tournament. A win would put them on the good side, and two would solidify their bid as a low seed (9-10).

FLORIDA (17-3, 4-1)

Analysis: As young and talented as the Gators are, they play little defense. At home the hot shooting could be enough, but Florida will need to find some “D” if they hope to seriously compete in the East with Tennessee and Vanderbilt (and Kentucky?). So far, the team’s only conference loss was a two-point loss on the road to #15 Ole Miss - not bad at all. The Gators share the ball well and are towards the top of most statistical categories - but, much of that was against far, far weaker competition. Nick Calathes, possible front-runner for SEC Freshman of the Year, is the spark plug for this year’s UF team, recording 16.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists to only 2.8 turnovers so far this season. Impressive - especially for a freshman. Speights has been the other go-to guy, all of his coming from the paint where he averages 64.4% from the field along with 7.8 rebounds.

Gameplan: Focus on defense. The Gators need to harass their opponents more (dead last in the conference in steals per game) and keep shooting well. Remember, defense creates offense.

Schedule

vs. #16 Vanderbilt (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. LSU (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Georgia (W)
vs. Miss. State (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (W)
@ Kentucky (L)

Prediction: (23-8, 10-6)

Postseason: This record should easily put the Gators into the NCAA’s. Each win in the SEC tournament would equate to about one seed in the NCAA tournament, starting out at an 8 or 7 seed.

GEORGIA (11-5, 2-1)

Analyis: The Bulldogs’ defense has been solid, but the team doesn’t have the depth to create any offense. The squad is near the bottom in all percentage categories, and dead last in assist-to-turnover ratio. Noone outside of Humphrey can find any stroke, as Humphrey is hitting 43.7% from the floor and 41.6% from long range. Humphrey, of course, leads the team with 14.1 points per contest and Gaines follows that up with 12.8 points, although he’s taking too many threes (second-most on the team and hitting only 27.1%). Price is the offensive inside man and Bliss is the defensive, as Price scores 9.6 points per outing and Bliss grabs 4.6 rebounds and has a decent amount of blocks as well.

Gameplan: Give Humphrey more touches. The guy plays hard and he’s accurate - use him to extend the defense and give Price looks on the inside. Keep up the hard-nosed defense and take better care of the ball.

Schedule

@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Kentucky (W)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Florida (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)

Prediction: (14-15, 5-11)

Postseason: The Bulldogs would need to make the finals of the SEC tournament for a 4 or 5 seed in the NIT, and win it to make a 9 or 10 seed in the NCAA’s.

KENTUCKY (8-9, 2-2)

Analysis: As statistically-oriented as I may be, I can still see the Wildcats’ main problem - chemistry. New faces, injuries, and a new coach has equated to an early-season stumbling, but Kentucky has looked much more competitive as of late in wins against #3 Tennessee and #16 Vanderbilt, along with hard-fought road losses to Mississippi State and Florida. Kentucky’s main problem comes from a lack of experienced depth on offense. The ‘Cats play tight defense but noone outside of Bradley and Crawford can score with any consistency from the guard position. Meeks has a game here and there, but there’s a black hole in the roster beyond that. Patterson has been an amazing presence inside as a freshman, leading the team with 16.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game along with shooting 57.8% from the field. If this guy stays all four years, he will be another Richard Hendrix.

Gameplan: Regardless of how difficult this may be to do, find another reliable scoring option. Meeks needs to step up now that he’s returned and become the threat that he has the potential to be. The bench (Jasper, Stevenson, Harris, Porter, Coury) all need to work on their chemistry with each other and running offensive sets. I’d try starting Stevenson alongside Patterson to see if a 3-2 lineup would limit some of the glaring holes in talented guard depth facing the Wildcats.

Schedule

vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Georgia (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Prediction: (16-13, 10-6)

Postseason: Despite going 10-6 in the conference, the Wildcats would need at least two wins in the SEC tournament to even be considered for the NCAA tournament. Kentucky is set for a unique problem - it seems to be NCAA or bust. With an overall record of 16-13, it does not seem as if the NIT would opt for the Wildcats - but if the ‘Cats can get into contention for an NIT bid, they would also be in contention for an NCAA bid because of their quality in-conference record. One win would be a very low seed in the NIT (6 or 7), two wins would be a 10 seed in the NCAA’s, making the finals would be a 8 or 9 seed, and winning the SEC tournament would likely hand the ‘Cats a 7 or 8 seed.

LSU (7-11, 0-4)

Analysis: The Tigers aren’t doing much of anything well. Their defense isn’t horrible, but their offense is the worst the SEC has seen in quite some time. Despite some big names (Randolph, Temple, Mitchell, Martin), LSU has surprisingly little depth and are simply not executing. Thornton has been everything offensively for LSU, recording an average of 18.7 points per game, but taking 15.5 shots per game and only hitting 41.2%. Randolph has a higher 46.5 percentage and blocks a league-second 2.4 shots per game, along with collecting 8.6 rebounds per contest. Center Chris Johnson seems to be a hidden star, as he shoots 62.1% and grabs 4.8 rebounds in only 27.3 minutes, yet he’s only played in 13 games this season.

Gameplan: Develop the bench and limit Thornton. He’s talented, but the scoring attack needs to be more balanced than any one player attempting 15.5 shots per game. Play Johnson more, get him the ball, and get Martin, Temple, and Mitchell more playing time.

Schedule

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Auburn (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Florida (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (L)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Miss. State (L)

Prediction: I know it’s extreme, but I can’t see a W in the remaining schedule. (7-23, 0-16)

Postseason: None, outside of a miracle win of the SEC tournament, in which case the Tigers would still get a 12-16 seed.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (13-5, 4-0)

Analysis: MSU has turned up the defensive heat lately and as a result remains the only undefeated team in SEC play. Jamont Gordon will be in the argument for SEC Player of the Year with his 17.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game and Jarvis Varnado will be in the mix for All-SEC First Team as he easily leads the nation in blocks per game (5.2). Varnado, or “Swat”, seems to alter even more shots than he blocks, as opponents’ inside games (with the exception of Alabama’s Hendrix) have crumbled under him as he also ranks second in the conference with 8.7 rebounds per game (behind - you guessed it, Hendrix). MSU ranks 2nd in the nation in blocks per game and field-goal percentage defense. The team’s glaring weakness seems to be free throw shooting, as the team ranks 11th out of 12 with an abysmal average of 59.8%. Also, the Bulldogs take too many threes (385) due to their 33.2% team average from long range.

Gameplan: Maximize Varnado’s playing time (only averaging 25.9 minutes per game - imagine if he played 35) and limit the threes. Take more time offensively to get the ball to the post or open a lane for Gordon. And hit. free. throws. No excuse for making less than 70%, much less 60%.

Schedule

vs. #15 Ole Miss (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (W)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Prediction: (21-9, 12-4)

Postseason: This record should easily hand MSU an NCAA bid. In the SEC tournament…No wins (8 seed), One win (7 seed), Two wins (5 seed), Overall win (4 seed).

#15 OLE MISS (15-2, 2-2)

Analysis: The Rebels characteristically have not been able to pull out games on the road due to their youth. Still a very well-coached and talented team, the Rebels are one of (if not the single) most efficient offensive teams in the conference, but the defense is lacking - another trait of young teams. The Rebels rebound surprisingly well for their youth and shoot well, but will not match up well against the defensive teams in the West such as Arkansas and Mississippi State. Chris Warren looks to compete for the title of SEC Freshman of the Year as he leads the team with an average of 15.9 points per game along with 5.3 assists to only 2.8 turnovers. The other offensive anchor is Dwayne Curtis, who’s inside skills bring him 15.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game along with averaging a league-leading 68.7% from the field. Other contributors such as Polynice, Huertas, and Williams all have potential to have a big game.

Gameplan: As good as he is, Warren is taking too many shots and Curtis, who leads the conference in field goal percentage, is only taking 8.6 per game. Swap the two’s attempts and leave Curtis out on the floor more. Get Williams more playing time, as he has tremendous potential, averaging 8.1 rebounds in only 25 minutes.

Schedule

@ Miss. State (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. Presbyterian (W)
@ Alabama (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
vs. Miss. State (W)
@ LSU (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Georgia (W)

Prediction: (25-5, 11-5)

Postseason: An NCAA bid should be a given, and depending on the SEC tournament results…No wins (7 seed), One win (6 seed), Two wins (4 seed), Overall win (3 seed).

SOUTH CAROLINA (9-9, 1-3)

Analysis: The Gamecocks shoot the three well, but are on the low side of mediocre in nearly everything else. With that said, the team’s lone conference win was a road win at Arkansas, a tough place to play, so the team has proven it can get hot. Three-point shooting teams are never out of any game. Downey is bolstering his First-Team All-SEC credentials by averaging 19.9 points and 5.0 assists per game, and Fredrick posts 16.1 points per game. The team’s best three-point shooter, Raley-Ross (61.2%) only attempts 3.1 threes per game. Rebounding is a weakness, also, as is depth.

Gameplan: Get Raley-Ross more playing time and encourage him to take more threes. Because of the guard-heavy lineup of the talent, the Gamecocks should focus on three-point sets in practice and build on their asset.

Schedule

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Georgia (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Florida (L)
vs. Miss. State (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)

Prediction: (12-18, 4-12)

Postseason: The Gamecocks would have to win the SEC tournament to receive a 10-15 seed in the NCAA tournament.

#3 TENNESSEE (16-2, 3-1)

Analysis: Although the Vols lead the league in three-pointers made per contest, the squad surprisingly ranks only 6th out of 12 in percentage behind the arc. That in and of itself suggests less reliance on the three-ball. With that said, it’s tough to improve on 16-2. Preseason All-American Chris Lofton has fizzled, shooting only 34.8% from behind the arc and 35.6% from the floor to average 13.8 points due to leading the team in attempts. Although it’s understandable to expect him to light up again, it’s time to hand the reigns over to Howell, who is an unsung star off the bench hitting 42.3% of his 3.9 attempts per game in 19.8 minutes. JaJuan Smith leads the Vols with 14.4 points per game along with a good 2.5:1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. Iowa transfer Tyler Smith anchors the inside game with 12.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, although he actually leads the team with 3.4 assists per game - an aspect of the game most big men are not particularly adept at. I suppose it’s easier when you’re surrounded by shooters.

Gameplan: Lofton needs to limit his shots and hand some of them over to Howell. Leading the conference in steals per game, the team needs to actually play some on-ball defense in a half-court setting as well if they hope to make a long run into the NCAA’s.

Schedule

vs. Georgia (W)
@ Alabama (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. Florida (W)
@ LSU (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Georgia (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ #1 Memphis (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (W)
vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Prediction: (26-4, 13-3)

Postseason: An NCAA bid is obvious here. Anything less than making the SEC Tournament finals will result in a 2 seed, and a tournament final should hand them a top seed, with a conference tournament win a possibility for the #1 overall seed.

#16 VANDERBILT (17-2, 2-2)

Analysis: The Commodores are a story of polar opposites. The team executes the most efficient offense in the SEC, but their defense is nearly non-existent. Whereas Tennessee plays little half-court defense but does press, Vandy does not. Shan Foster has a great argument for SEC Player of the Year with his 20.1 points and 4.9 rebounds per game along with a 51.2% shooting percentage, including 48.1 from behind the arc to easily lead the conference. Ogilvy is a lock for SEC All-Freshman team as he averages 18.5 points and 6.8 rebounds, although his production has lessened as he’s entered SEC play.

Gameplan: Extend the defense and employ at least a half-court trap (preferrably a full) the majority of the time. Rely less on Ogilvy to score now that SEC play is in full swing and involve Neltner or Metcalfe a bit more. Keep up the impressive offensive production.

Schedule

@ Florida (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ Georgia (W)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Kentucky (W)
vs. Florida (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. Miss. State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Prediction: (25-6, 10-6)

Postseason: Another automatic NCAA bid, with the SEC tournament: No wins (6 seed), One win (5 seed), Two wins (4 seed), Overall win (3 seed)

Hope you enjoy, comments are appreciated.

Saturday odds…

Overall: 108-23 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 43-37 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 15-5 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 10-10 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(8-9, 2-2) Kentucky [#143] vs. (9-9, 1-3) South Carolina [#109]
Spread: Kentucky by 7.5
Pick: Kentucky - The Wildcats seem to be improving drastically, although the Gamecocks are more competitive recently as well.
—Keys: If the Wildcat guards can continue their recent offensive performance, the team’s defense should be able to contain USC. Look for Bradley and Crawford’s performances to determine Kentucky’s success.

(11-8, 0-4) Alabama [#113] vs. (12-5, 2-2) Auburn [#128]
Spread: Alabama by 10.5
Pick: Auburn - The Tigers are a very experienced squad, and thus the “road factor” should be at a minimum. The Tide are floundering, but should be able to pull out a close home win.
—Keys: Watch for the turnovers. Alabama is somewhat susceptible to turning the ball over and the Tigers force a ton of them. If the Tigers stay hot from the field and force a high number of turnovers, they have a chance of winning the game.

(13-5, 4-0) Mississippi State [#73] vs. (15-2, 2-2) #15 Ole Miss [#12]
Spread: Miss. State by 5.5
Pick: Mississippi State - The Rebels aren’t playing well on the road thus far in the SEC, and MSU is one of the hottest teams in the conference.
—Keys: According to the Wirth Value, this game matches up the SEC’s #2 offense against the #1 defense. Usually in these radical opposites, the home team wins the battle. Look for the Curtis/Varnado matchup to define the outcome.

(16-2, 3-1) #3 Tennessee [#1] vs. (11-5, 2-1) Georgia [#121]
Spread: Tennessee by 13.5
Pick: Tennessee - The Bulldogs don’t have the talent or depth to keep this one close.
—Keys: Georgia will need to defend the three well to have a chance in this game.

(7-11, 0-4) LSU [#201] vs. (13-5, 2-2) Arkansas [#41]
Spread: Arkansas by 4.5
Pick: Arkansas - Although the Razorbacks tend to choke on the road (see; Auburn), LSU is simply awful.
—Keys: Will the Tigers be able to find any offense against the SEC’s #2 defense?

Official Multi-Blogger Week Eleven Poll

Here is everyone’s vote.

1. Memphis (NC, 11 votes)
2. Kansas (+1, 4 votes)
3. Tennessee (+2)
4. Duke (+2)
5. North Carolina (-3)
6. Washington State (+1)
7. UCLA (-3)
8. Indiana (NC)
9. Michigan State (+1)
10. Georgetown (+3)
11. Wisconsin (+5)
12. Texas (+
13. Butler (-2)
14. Dayton (NC)
15. Ole Miss (NC)
16. Vanderbilt (+3)
17. Pittsburgh (NC)
18. Drake (+5)
19. Texas A&M (-10)
20. Xavier (-2)
21. Marquette (-9)
22. Stanford (NR)
23. Villanova (NR)
24. St. Mary’s (NR)
25. Arizona State (-3)

Others Receiving Votes - most to least: West Virginia, Baylor, Clemson, Gonzaga, Arizona, Oregon, Oklahoma, USC, Kansas State, Rhode Island, Louisville, Miami (FL), Florida, Mississippi State, Cleveland State, Massachusetts

New: (22) Stanford, (23) Villanova, (24) St. Mary’s
Out: (21) Rhode Island, (24) Rhode Island, (25) Clemson

—Texas A&M fell tremendously after falling to 1-3 in the Big 12 with three-straight losses at the hands of Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Baylor.

—Marquette fell nearly as much after losing two in a row to Louisville and Connecticut.

—Wisconsin and Drake were the big winners this week, as the Badgers are a perfect 6-0 in the Big Ten with recent wins over Michigan and Northwestern and Drake has taken care of Illinois State and Creighton to move to 17-1 and 8-0 in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Wednesday games…

Overall: 108-23 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 43-37 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 15-5 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 10-10 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(9-9, 1-3) South Carolina [71] vs. (17-3, 4-1) Florida [73]: Having the disadvantage of no access to the game while it was being played, I instinctively checked the free throw percentages after I saw the 2-point result. And - shocker - the better free throw shooting team prevailed, as the Gators hit 75.0% from the charity stripe compared to the Gamecocks’ 45.5%. Also per the usual, Calathes and Speights led the Gators in scoring with a combined 43 points on 16-of-27 shooting and 17 rebounds. Speights’ 22 and 13 was his fifth double-double of the season. The game’s only other double-double belonged to Dominic Archie of USC with 14 points and 11 rebounds, his second of the season. The Gators’ are seriously inept on defense, as they let the Gamecocks shoot 52.8% from the floor, but are efficient in most every other way - winning the turnover and rebounding battles. Finding a way to win is key in the SEC.
Impact [South Carolina]: For a team that needs every win that could be afforded to them, USC absolutely must win games at home. A 9-3 or 10-2 mark will likely now be needed in the remaining games for any hope at an NCAA bid.
Impact [Florida]: Winning on the road is a crucial confidence-booster for a team as young as this year’s Florida squad. If the Gators can stay competitive on the road and find some defense, they very well could be in the title mix at the end of the season.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 11 more shots attempted

Tuesday games, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 107-23 (82.3%)
Vs. Spread: 42-37 (53.2%)
Overall (SEC): 14-5 (73.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 9-10 (47.4%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(8-9, 2-2) Kentucky [72] vs. (16-2, 3-1) #13 Tennessee [66]: Ironically, in what was arguably one of Lofton’s best games this season, none of his fellow teammates could step up and help avoid the massive upset (statistically speaking, of course). Lofton shot 7-of-15 overall and 5-of-11 from behind the arc for 22 points, but no other Vol managed more than 12 points - Chism on 3-of-8 shooting. Freshman Patrick Patterson had a massive game, recording 20 points on 6-of-11 shooting and 8-of-9 from the charity stripe and at least five blocks (I don’t have a full boxscore yet). Bradley came through as well, hitting all 10 free throw attempts and adding 3 from the field for 16 points. Neither team hit three-pointers well, but the Wildcats managed to keep it close into the second half in which the home momentum sent them on top for the final time.
Impact [Kentucky]: This was an absolutely huge victory for the Wildcats after losing their second SEC game. Now remaining in the thick of things in the East, there’s no reason to count out Kentucky to challenge Tennessee for the division.
Impact [Tennessee]: The loss proved that the Vols, though incredibly talented, aren’t invincible. The Vols will need to win a decent number of road games to take the overall SEC title. The game @ MSU is setting up to have enormous implications for both teams.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 24-of-28 (85.7%) free throw shooting

(12-5, 2-2) Auburn [78] vs. (2-21) Presbyterian [65]: Barrett his second double-double of the season after a few disappointing outings as of late to lead all scorers with 24 points on 9-of-11 shooting and 10 rebounds. The Tigers were absolutely on fire tonight after their hot shooting took down nationally-ranked Ole Miss at home just a few days ago, although Auburn let the horrendous Presbyterian team score 65 points on them and shoot over 40% from the field.
Impact [Auburn]: Little to none, though the shooting touch momentum will need to continue in a trip to Alabama.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s +17 rebound margin

Wednesday Odds

(9-8, 1-2) South Carolina [#102] vs. (16-3, 3-1) Florida [#69]
Spread: Florida by 1
Pick: Florida - The Gators are improving every game, and they took Ole Miss to the wire in Oxford.

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 106-22 (82.8%)
Vs. Spread: 42-36 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 14-4 (77.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 9-9 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(7-9, 1-2) Kentucky [#183] vs. (16-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 4.5
Pick: Tennessee - Although this was a tough call as the Wildcats have been improving and they are tough at home, I believe the Vols will take care of business against Kentucky.
—Keys: Kentucky’s defense is playing tough - if the guards can shake up Tennessee’s guards, it could be a close game. Watch for the matchup between Tyler Smith - SEC Player of the Year candidate - and Patrick Patterson - SEC Freshman of the Year candidate.

Also picking: (11-5, 2-2) Auburn [#120] over (2-20) Presbyterian [#327] at home.

Pomeroy Ratings Week Eleven prediction…

Another feature that we’ll be beginning comes straight from Ken Pomeroy’s statistical blog, one of the most-visited and well-respected statistical geniuses on the net.

In addition to Ken’s standard RPI, he factors efficiency much like I do - except for all 340 NCAa Division I teams. With these numbers, that will be included in these posts, the numbers predict the ultimate outcome of each team’s season.

The following are his predictions for the SEC teams as of Week Eleven.

East

1. [#11] Tennessee (27-4, 14-2)
2. [#32] Florida (23-8, 10-6)
3. [#61] Vanderbilt (23-8, 8-
4. [#70] Kentucky (13-16, 7-9)
4. [#74] South Carolina (15-15, 7-9)
6. [#96] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)

West

1. [#31] Mississippi State (21-9, 12-4)
2. [#36] Ole Miss (24-6, 10-6)
3. [#48] Arkansas (19-11, 8-
4. [#93] Alabama (16-15, 5-11)
4. [#125] Auburn (15-14, 5-11)
6. [#129] LSU (10-20, 3-13)

SEC Overall Title: Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Percentage Chance of No More Losses

1. Tennessee - 7.10%
2. Miss. State - 0.21%

Wirth Value: Week Eleven

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (56.33, NC)
2. Ole Miss (50.56, +2)
3. Tennessee (50.52, -1)
4. Florida (45.73, -1)
5. Alabama (32.63, NC)
6. Arkansas (31.19, NC)
7. South Carolina (30.46, NC)
8. Miss. State (21.98, +1)
9. Kentucky (21.74, -1)
10. Georgia (19.89, NC)
11. Auburn (16.61, NC)
12. LSU (7.94, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (49.70, NC)
2. Arkansas (46.42, NC)
3. Georgia (40.18, +2)
4. Florida (35.29, NC)
5. Tennessee (34.55, +3)
6. Kentucky (34.15, -3)
7. LSU (24.91, -1)
8. Ole Miss (21.81, -1)
9. South Carolina (20.94, NC)
10. Auburn (19.13, +1)
11. Vanderbilt (17.39, -1)
12. Alabama (17.12, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (125.36, +2)
2. Ole Miss (116.46, -1)
3. Florida (114.76, -1)
4. Vanderbilt (98.62, +1)
5. Arkansas (96.68, -1)
6. Miss. State (92.54, NC)
7. South Carolina (71.81, +2)
8. Alabama (70.47, -1)
9. Georgia (69.82, +1)
10. Kentucky (60.81, -2)
11. Auburn (49.29, +1)
12. LSU (34.80, -1)

—Lots of movement on the defensive board this week, resulting in some pretty major moves on the overall board.

—Tennessee’s RPI has sky-rocketed after defeating both Vanderbilt and Ohio State, and as a result they took over the top position overall and moved up by three after holding the Commodores’ potent offense to only 60 points.

—South Carolina also jumped 2 spots overall after a huge road win over a talented Arkansas squad, despite losing 3 of their last 4.

—Kentucky finds themselves among the bottom of the conference statistically, after losing 3 of their last 4.

—Mississippi State continues to prove the surprise team of the conference thus far, as the Bulldogs’ impressive defense pulls away from the previously-leading Arkansas.

Saturday games…

Overall: 106-22 (82.8%)
Vs. Spread: 42-36 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 14-4 (77.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 9-9 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(17-2, 2-2) #17 Vanderbilt [92] vs. (7-11, 0-4) LSU [76]: Junior Marcus Thornton scored his third 27-point game of the season and freshman Anthony Randolph pulled down a career-high 19 rebounds and 14 points for his fourth double-double of the season while LSU outrebounded the Commodores 36-29 and yet Vanderbilt destroyed the Tigers by 16 points. Efficient ball-handling and hot shooting was key, although the Tigers were still allowed to shoot 47.5% from the field. Five ‘Dores scored in double digits, led by Foster and Gordon who had 18 apiece on a combined 12-of-27 shooting effort and sophomore Jermaine Beal had an impressive 9 assists to no turnovers. AJ Ogilvy had his second consecutive mediocre game with 10 points on 2-of-6 shooting, 3 rebounds and 3 turnovers.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores end a two-game slide with the win after winning 17-straight games to begin the season. Vanderbilt will need some help from Tennessee in order to get back into the race for the Eastern title.
Impact [LSU]: At this point, the Tigers are looking towards next season. The question will be, can LSU pull off a title-altering upset at some point this season?
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 21-to-7 (3:1) assist-to-turnover ratio

(11-8, 0-4) Alabama [56] vs. (13-5, 4-0) Mississippi State [66]: The Bulldogs finally found their stroke from behind the arc and hit each of them in timely fashion, leading this game throughout by matching every Tide run. Despite Varnado’s lackluster performance on the inside, MSU still held Alabama to just 56 points - 21 of them coming from Hendrix, despite his attempting only 10 shots. Alabama’s big man turned the ball over 7 times, however. Gee managed only 10 on 2-of-9 shooting. Gordon brought down a game-high 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting while Stewart hit 3-of-5 from behind the arc to record 16.
Impact [Alabama]: This game was the Tide’s last chance to rebound from three-straight losses, as the NCAA’s are most certainly out of reach at this point. Alabama’s situation is only different from LSU’s in one way - the Tide are much more likely to upset a team or two this season.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs are on a serious run, but have three signature games coming up with Ole Miss and Tennessee coming to town and a trip to Arkansas mixed in between. If MSU can manage a 2-1 mark in that span, the Western Division looks like a good bet. 3-0 would put State in the upper echelon with Tennessee for the overall championship.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s 46.2% shooting from behind the arc vs. Alabama’s 14.3%

(16-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [74] vs. (12-6, 3-2) Ohio State [69]: The Vols defeated the Buckeyes in the same fashion they’ve defeated every team this season, with good shooting and taking care of the ball. Two Buckeyes recorded double-doubles, as freshman Evan Turner claimed 21 points and 10 rebounds for the first of his career and senior Othello Hunter grabbed 17 points and 14 rebounds for the second of his season. Balanced scoring was again key for Tennessee, as four Vols scored in double figures but none with more than 15. Lofton had a not-so-terrible game, shooting 4-of-10 from three to score 13.
Impact [Tennesse]: With the last non-conference opponent out of the way, the Volunteers look unstoppable on thier march towards a top seed in the tournament.
Stat of the Game: Ohio State’s 2-of-20 (10.0%) shooting from behind the arc

(11-5, 2-2) Auburn [80] vs. (15-2, 2-2) Ole Miss [77]: Hot shooting allowed the Tigers a tremendous upset of the Rebels, despite being outrebounded heavily. The Tigers shot 47.4% from the field and even better from behind the arc, as senior Frank Tolbert had the biggest game of his season with 29 points on 9-of-11 shooting from the field and 5 rebounds. Reed also notched a season high with 21 points, along with 6 assists. Prowell added 12 rebounds. Warren had another huge game for the Rebels with 25 points on 9-of-20 shooting…7-of-14 of those from behind the arc…and Curtis recorded the eighth double-double of his season.
Impact [Auburn]: This win should inject a much-needed dose of life into the Tigers, as they remain in the battle for the Western division title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are now on their heels, and will now need to do what young players don’t do well - rebound from a tough stretch of losses.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 10-of-19 (52.6%) shooting from three

(11-5, 2-1) Georgia [82] vs. (13-5, 2-2) Arkansas [69]: The Razorbacks are showing signs of their previous road-choking selves, as Pelphrey’s squad was simply not the more physical team against the Bulldogs and couldn’t hit anything from behind the arc (although, that is usual) and the ‘Dawgs were unstoppable from long range. Georgia also outrebounded Arkansas and won the turnover war. Four Bulldogs scored in double digits, led by junior Billy Humphrey’s 24 points on 4-of-6 from long range, also including Gaines and Price with 14 apiece and Woodbury with 12. Charles Thomas and Sonny Weems were the only ‘Backs in double digits with 13 and 12 points respectively, as together the two had 8 turnovers and normally-outstanding sophomore Beverly had an “off” game shooting “only” 3-of-7 from the field for 9 points.
Impact [Georgia]: The win certainly gives the Bulldogs a pulse in the conference. Although Felton’s squad can’t realistically hope to compete with Tennessee in the East, a small run could put the NCAA’s within reach.
Impact [Arkansas]: Arkansas, the previous favorite in the West, has now lost 2-straight games to “lesser” opponents. After a trip to LSU, the Razorbacks won’t have long to rebound in an absolutely nasty five-game stretch including both Mississippi State games, a trip to Tennessee, and home games against Ole Miss and Florida. If the ‘Backs can’t reverse this momentum and manage a sub-.500 mark in those five games, the squad could begin losing sight of the Western division title.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 11-to-17 assist-to-turnover ratio

(16-3, 3-1) Florida [81] vs. (7-9, 1-2) Kentucky [70]: The Wildcats are proving they have some fight left in them…in their losses. The Gators needed overtime to defeat the visiting ‘Cats, and Kentucky slips to their worst record in quite some time. Two Gators scored 20 points or more, as Calathes and Speights combined for 44 points and 16 rebounds on a combined 13-of-23 shooting effort from the floor. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this team will challenge for a national title in the next year or two. Ramel Bradley carried the Wildcat offense, bringing down 23 points on 8-of-16 shooting, while Crawford and Patterson scored 16 and 15 points respectively. The rest of the Kentucky team combined for 16 points total. This team is struggling mightily with their lack of depth.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are still on track to challenge Tennessee in the East if the Vols will stumble, but road games will prove vital for the young squad.
Impact [Kentucky]: If the Wildcats want to make any noise in the conference, the time is now. This game proved Kentucky can play quality competition on the road, but these type of games are becoming necessary “W”s for the ‘Cats.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s ever-potent offense: 48.0% shooting from the floor

Saturday odds…

Overall: 102-20 (83.6%)
Vs. Spread: 39-33 (54.2%)
Overall (SEC): 11-2 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 6-7 (46.2%)
East vs. West: East, 5-3

(16-2, 1-2) #17 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (7-10, 0-3) LSU [#185]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 12.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - The Tigers have been blown out at home by 20+ points, the Commodores should handle this game very easily.
—Keys: Look for the ‘Dores to find their touch from the arc again.

(11-7, 0-3) Alabama [#102] vs. (12-5, 3-0) Mississippi State [#85]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Mississippi State - Although the road is a tough place to play, the Bulldogs almost beat ‘Bama at home last season and have the momentum to pull the upset.
—Keys: While the Tide are looking to save their chances at a postseason appearance, the Bulldogs are trying to establish themselves at the top of the West. Will the ‘Dawgs be able to win on the road, and will the three-straight losses be the beginning of a downward spiral for Alabama? This is a vital matchup in the West.

(15-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [#1] vs. (12-5, 3-2) Ohio State [#24]
Spread: Tennessee by 9
Pick: Tennessee - The Vols will be prepared and Ohio State is too young to play well against the Vols on the road.
—Keys: A win over Ohio State will help the Vols’ argument for a top seed come March if all goes as planned.

(10-5, 1-2) Auburn [#149] vs. (15-1, 2-1) Ole Miss [#14]
Spread: Ole Miss by 7.5
Pick: Ole Miss - Although the Tigers played Arkansas well at home, the Rebels are very efficient and should light up the nets in Auburn.
—Keys: Can Auburn find enough offense to keep up with the ‘Backs?

(10-5, 1-1) Georgia [#157] vs. (13-4, 2-1) Arkansas [#37]
Spread: Arkansas by 1
Pick: Arkansas - The Bulldogs have momentum, but the Razorbacks are much more talented.
—Keys: Will the Bulldogs play off of the momentum from the Alabama win? If the Dawgs can find a way to slow down Arkansas’ inside game, they have a real chance in this game.

(15-3, 2-1) Florida [#71] vs. (7-8, 1-1) Kentucky [#179]
Spread: Florida by 8
Pick: Florida - The Gators are young and should take care of the Wildcats at home.
—Keys: The Wilcats desperately need a win as the Gators look to establish themselves in the Eastern Division.

Crews returning…

Rumor has it that Duke Crews, a talented sophomore forward for Tennessee, will return either against Kentucky or Georgia in the next couple of games, helping the Vols’ already sickeningly impressive depth.

Dave Odom retiring…

As predicted, this will be the final season for Dave Odom of South Carolina. Odom has taken USC to just one NCAA Tournament in 10 years, although USC did claim back-to-back NIT championships a few years ago. His overall record is 401-268, and he is expected to announce his retirement today.

With an entire half-season to carry out the search for a new coach, who will the Gamecocks aim for? I’ll keep you updated on everything I hear, both rumors and facts - both of which will be labeled correctly.

Wednesday and Thursday games…

Overall: 102-20 (83.6%)
Vs. Spread: 39-33 (54.2%)
Overall (SEC): 11-2 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 6-7 (46.2%)
East vs. West: East, 5-3

(10-5, 1-1) Georgia [61] vs. (11-7, 0-3) Alabama [49]: The Tide spread themselves too thin due to foul trouble for Hendrix, and thus the Bulldogs ran away with the win. While Alabama shot somewhat better from the field, the hoop seemed to shrink outside of the arc, as UA shot only 3-of-20 from long-range. Humphrey and Price led UGA in scoring with 13 and 11 apiece, although seven others had at least three. Hendrix paced all scorers with 19 and 10 rebounds for his fourth-straight double-double, but Gee only managed 5 points on 2-of-9 shooting and seven rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: This should provide a nice boost in the standings for the Bulldogs, as they are now tied with Vanderbilt and Kentucky for third place in the East, keeping them in the race.
Impact [Alabama]: The dreaded hangover game struck again, and the Tide has now lost three-straight headed towards Saturday’s matchup against a hot MSU team. If UA doesn’t get something going against the Bulldogs, the Tiders may be looking at a sub .500 team on the year.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 3-of-20 shooting from behind the arc - the sign of a desperate and confused offense

(7-10, 0-3) LSU [67] vs. (10-5, 1-2) Auburn [74]: Auburn simply outshot LSU in this one, as the Swamp Tigers consistently awful three-point shooting bit them hard. You’d think that if you’re not hitting them, you’d stop shooting as many, but Brady’s team attempted 24 threes and made only 7. Both teams have problems with depth, although it was most apparent with LSU, with players outside of Thornton, Temple, and Randolph accounting for a combined total of 11 points. Thornton did, however, have the biggest game of his short career with 27 points and 6 rebounds. Reed led Auburn with 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting while Tolbert claimed 9 rebounds to go along with his 16 points.
Impact [LSU]: With their post-season hopes pretty much trampled, the Tigers should be taking this off-time (they can’t be practicing, right?) to look for a new coach.
Impact [Auburn]: Realistically, the postseason is a longshot for the Tigers, but this is certainly a small step in the right direction, but the Aubies need to keep winning.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 54.7% overall shooting

(15-1, 2-1) # Ole Miss [89] vs. (15-3, 2-1) Florida [87]: As expected, this game featured little defense and lots of offense. The Gators pulled out an impressive run late in the game, but the Rebels closed it out for the tight victory. The Rebels’ Dwayne Curtis led all scorers and grabbed the seventh double-double of his season with 20 points and 12 rebounds, while the thus-far impressive Warren dished out 10 assists to only 2 turnovers. Freshman guard Trevor Gaskins also nearly had a career-high day with 19 points. Calathes and Werner led the Gators with 16 points apiece, while Speights saw only 17 minutes of action.
Impact [Ole Miss]: Winning close games at home can build confidence or can produce an emotional hangover, especially with young teams. The Rebels remain in the thick of things in the West with the win to hold serve thus far at home.
Impact [Florida]: Mostly the same, how will the young players react to a close loss on the road? The Gators challenged a very talented Rebel team and look to compete for “best of the rest” behind Tennessee in the East.
Stat of the Game: Both teams shooting a combined 49.6% from the floor

(13-4, 2-1) Arkansas [66] vs. (9-8, 1-2) South Carolina [70]: The hangover from the overtime Alabama/Arkansas matchup proved true in both cases, as the Razorbacks dropped a vital game at home to the Gamecocks. The teams shot similarly, but turnovers (lack of concentration, maybe?) doomed the ‘Backs, led by Weems and Welsh with 4 each. Oddly, each team featured a 28-point scorer: for USC it was sophomore Devan Downey on 9-of-18 shooting and for Arkansas it was senior Sonny Weems with the biggest game of his season on 11-of-19 shooting. The ‘Backs did, however, manage to do what they do so well - rebound, outrebounding USC by 15.
Impact [Arkansas]: Arkansas is very experienced, and this should serve as a wake-up call. The ‘Backs now fall a game behind MSU for the West, and will need every win they can get from here on out. Another bad loss could prove the final straw in terms of an overall or West title.
Impact [South Carolina]: USC is still hoping for the NIT, as the NCAA’s are nearly out of the question at this point, and this was a big step forward towards that goal.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 80.0% free throw shooting (in a 4-point game)

Thursday Game

(15-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [80] vs. (16-2, 1-2) #17 Vanderbilt [60]: The Commodores fought hard early in the second half, but the depth and talent of the Vols ran away with a huge victory. The question of just how competitive Vanderbilt is remains to be seen, as it seems the team is buckling under the pressure of talented competition. Both teams shot surprisingly mediocre, with the Vols holding the distinct advantage while holding Vandy to their lowest point total and lowest field-goal percentage of the year. Balanced scoring again led the Volunteers, with Wayne Chism having an absolutely tremendous game with 18 points and 18 rebounds - yikes! Ironically, this was his first double-double of the season. Lofton, easily the most disappointing player in the nation, managed only 11 on 4-of-11 shooting, including 2-of-6 from three. Foster and Ogilvy were again the story for Vanderbilt, but this time in a much more quiet tone - 14 and 12 points respectively. Ogivly couldn’t handle the fact-paced game, as he had only 5 rebounds and 4 turnovers on the game.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols should now have the confidence to play with anyone in the league, having already beaten two teams with 1 loss or less. With these major hurdles out of the way, this team is looking as if it has a chance of an undefeated SEC record.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores’ confidence has to be shot after back-to-back conference losses following a school-record-setting 16-straight wins. If the ‘Dores can’t re-focus on the games at hand, the SEC could be on the verge of witnessing an epic collapse.
Stat of the Game: Vandy’s (the best 3-point shooting team in the SEC) 3-of-21 (14.3%) shooting from behind the arc

Thursday odds…

Overall: 99-18 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread: 38-29 (56.7%)
Overall (SEC): 8-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 5-3 (62.5%)
East vs. West: East, 5-3

I’ll be posting the results of tonight’s games, including some well-predicted upsets, tomorrow.

(14-1, 2-0) #13 Tennesse [#3] vs. (16-1, 1-1) #17 Vanderbilt [#14]
Spread: Tennessee by 10
Pick: Vanderbilt - I trust the Commodores to make this a game, but the Vols should pull out the “W”.
—Keys: The Vols don’t play very tight defense, and the Commodores are the best-shooting team in the SEC. As long as the ‘Dores avoid a night like they had against Kentucky recently, this could be an exciting - and high-scoring - game.

Official Multi-Blogger Week Ten Poll

Link to everyone’s vote is here. 

1. North Carolina (NC, 9 votes)
2. Memphis (NC, 4 votes)
3. Texas (NC, 1 vote)
4. Kansas (NC)
5. Duke (NC, 1 vote)
6. Washington State (+2)
7. Georgetown (NC)
8. UCLA (-2)
9. Michigan State (NC)
10. Marquette (NC)
11. Indiana (+1)
12. Texas A&M (-1)
13. Tennessee (NC)
14. Butler (NC)
15. Pittsburgh (+2)
16. Clemson (+2)
17. Vanderbilt (+2)
18. Miami-FL (+4)
19. Arizona (+5)
20. Gonzaga (+1)
21. Rhode Island (NR)
22. Oregon (-7)
23. West Virginia (NR)
24. Xavier (-
25. BYU (NC)

Others Receiving Votes - most to least: Villanova, Dayton, USC, Ole Miss, Stanford, Wisconsin, St. Mary’s, Massachusetts, Florida, Louisville, Arizona State, Providence

New: (21) Rhode Island, (23) West Virginia
Out: (20) Louisville, (23) St. Mary’s

—Biggest loser was Xavier, after despite oddly not losing a game. The competition wasn’t particularly strong, but an 8-point drop after constant wins is surprising.

—Oregon also suffered despite beating two ranked opponents because of a loss to Arizona State, who is receiving votes. Another interesting one.

—Arizona was the only major gainer, after losing two of their last three. Inverted much?

Division Record Update…

As of now, the East vs. West matchup stands at…

Drumroll, please…

East: 3
West: 2

Of note, the West’s only two wins over the East have both come from the hands of MSU, who has defeated Georgia and Kentucky. Florida has provided the East with two wins over Alabama and Auburn, while Tennessee proved the tiebreaker over Ole Miss.