Conference Report

With March quickly approaching, I thought this as good a time as any to break down each team in the conference, their remaining games, and their postseason outlook.

ALABAMA (11-8, 0-4)

Analysis: The Crimson Tide’s slow start to SEC play is due in large part to a lack of a third scoring option. Hendrix is still my pick for the best overall player in the SEC, averaging 19.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, and Gee is talented but often too out of control (1.2 assists to 2.1 turnovers per game). Gee’s main problem can’t be seen on the stat sheet, which is fundamentally poor decision-making – the guy is selfish. If the ball is in his hand, he’s going to shoot it one way or another and this is taking its toll on the rest of the team. Riley has spurts of hot shooting and has proven to be a threat from beyond the arc (42.4%) and yet he’s only averaging 13.1 points per game.

Gameplan: Limit Gee’s possessions and increase Riley’s by double, keeping Hendrix as the main anchor for the team. The plan should be to get the ball to Hendrix down low every time, with a kickout to Riley when the defense collapses. Utilize Gee on fastbreaks and when a lane opens up.

Schedule

vs. Auburn (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)

Prediction: (15-16, 4-12)

Postseason: The Tide would need to make the finals of the SEC tournament to make the NIT (2 or 3 seed), and only a win would grant them an NCAA bid (albeit as a 9 or 10 seed).

AUBURN (12-5, 2-2)

Analysis: Honestly, there’s no reason for Auburn not to compete this season. The Tigers’ efficiencies (both offensive and defensive) are miserable despite an experienced squad that was one W away from a Western Division title a year ago. The team can find offense occasionally (see; vs. Ole Miss) and are one of the best in the conference at forcing turnovers, but the lack of size hurts rebounding and their reliance on a three-ball that they do not shoot well limits any momentum they may find.

Gameplan: Use the team’s speed to your advantage – trap more. Slow down the opponents’ offense and make them work to score. The Tigers also need to create an offensive scheme that opens up Barber or Prowell in the paint, as Auburn’s field goal percentage is one of the best in the conference despite ranking 10th in three-point shooting. Barrett is taking entirely too many threes to only be hitting 32.9% of them.

Schedule

@ Alabama (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
vs. Miss. State (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
@ Arkansas (L)

Prediction: (16-13, 6-10)

Postseason: The Tigers would need to win in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the SEC Tournament to hope for an NIT bid (as a 4 or 5 seed), and winning the conference tournament would be the only vessel to the NCAA’s (as a 9 or 10 seed).

ARKANSAS (13-5, 2-2)

Analysis: Although sound defensively, the days are over in which this team could simply ride on the shoulders of hot shooting by Patrick Beverly. Beverly has slowed down a bit, hitting only 40.6% from the field and 36.5% from behind the arc. Not bad, mind you, but that’s not going to be enough to supply the entire team with offense. Beverly is also posting alarmingly high numbers of rebounds (5.9 per game), and when a shot guard is focusing that heavily on rebounding the ball it serves to purpose that his shot will be off. Although noone has really proven to be a three-point threat out of this team, Weems has stepped up with high percentages from the floor and leads the team in scoring (13.5ppg) although he tends to turn the ball over (3.4 per game).

Gameplan: The Razorbacks need to be focusing more heavily on an inside game offensively, as the guards are not as consistent as they need to be from beyond the arc. Townes, Thomas, and Washington are more than enough down low to rely on to score, with an occasional kickout to Beverly or drive by Weems. Although Hill isn’t nearly aggressive or nimble enough with the ball offensively, he’s a pretty consistent shooter from the paint – don’t be afraid to have him on the floor because not many in the conference can get to the basket with him down low.

Schedule

@ LSU (W)
vs. Miss. State (W)
vs. Florida (W)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (W)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. Auburn (W)

Prediction: (19-13, 8-8)

Postseason: With an already-decent RPI, the Razorbacks would be squarely on the bad side of the NCAA bubble with a one-and-done in the SEC tournament. A win would put them on the good side, and two would solidify their bid as a low seed (9-10).

FLORIDA (17-3, 4-1)

Analysis: As young and talented as the Gators are, they play little defense. At home the hot shooting could be enough, but Florida will need to find some “D” if they hope to seriously compete in the East with Tennessee and Vanderbilt (and Kentucky?). So far, the team’s only conference loss was a two-point loss on the road to #15 Ole Miss – not bad at all. The Gators share the ball well and are towards the top of most statistical categories – but, much of that was against far, far weaker competition. Nick Calathes, possible front-runner for SEC Freshman of the Year, is the spark plug for this year’s UF team, recording 16.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists to only 2.8 turnovers so far this season. Impressive – especially for a freshman. Speights has been the other go-to guy, all of his coming from the paint where he averages 64.4% from the field along with 7.8 rebounds.

Gameplan: Focus on defense. The Gators need to harass their opponents more (dead last in the conference in steals per game) and keep shooting well. Remember, defense creates offense.

Schedule

vs. #16 Vanderbilt (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. LSU (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Georgia (W)
vs. Miss. State (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (W)
@ Kentucky (L)

Prediction: (23-8, 10-6)

Postseason: This record should easily put the Gators into the NCAA’s. Each win in the SEC tournament would equate to about one seed in the NCAA tournament, starting out at an 8 or 7 seed.

GEORGIA (11-5, 2-1)

Analyis: The Bulldogs’ defense has been solid, but the team doesn’t have the depth to create any offense. The squad is near the bottom in all percentage categories, and dead last in assist-to-turnover ratio. Noone outside of Humphrey can find any stroke, as Humphrey is hitting 43.7% from the floor and 41.6% from long range. Humphrey, of course, leads the team with 14.1 points per contest and Gaines follows that up with 12.8 points, although he’s taking too many threes (second-most on the team and hitting only 27.1%). Price is the offensive inside man and Bliss is the defensive, as Price scores 9.6 points per outing and Bliss grabs 4.6 rebounds and has a decent amount of blocks as well.

Gameplan: Give Humphrey more touches. The guy plays hard and he’s accurate – use him to extend the defense and give Price looks on the inside. Keep up the hard-nosed defense and take better care of the ball.

Schedule

@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Kentucky (W)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Florida (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)

Prediction: (14-15, 5-11)

Postseason: The Bulldogs would need to make the finals of the SEC tournament for a 4 or 5 seed in the NIT, and win it to make a 9 or 10 seed in the NCAA’s.

KENTUCKY (8-9, 2-2)

Analysis: As statistically-oriented as I may be, I can still see the Wildcats’ main problem – chemistry. New faces, injuries, and a new coach has equated to an early-season stumbling, but Kentucky has looked much more competitive as of late in wins against #3 Tennessee and #16 Vanderbilt, along with hard-fought road losses to Mississippi State and Florida. Kentucky’s main problem comes from a lack of experienced depth on offense. The ‘Cats play tight defense but noone outside of Bradley and Crawford can score with any consistency from the guard position. Meeks has a game here and there, but there’s a black hole in the roster beyond that. Patterson has been an amazing presence inside as a freshman, leading the team with 16.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game along with shooting 57.8% from the field. If this guy stays all four years, he will be another Richard Hendrix.

Gameplan: Regardless of how difficult this may be to do, find another reliable scoring option. Meeks needs to step up now that he’s returned and become the threat that he has the potential to be. The bench (Jasper, Stevenson, Harris, Porter, Coury) all need to work on their chemistry with each other and running offensive sets. I’d try starting Stevenson alongside Patterson to see if a 3-2 lineup would limit some of the glaring holes in talented guard depth facing the Wildcats.

Schedule

vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Georgia (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Prediction: (16-13, 10-6)

Postseason: Despite going 10-6 in the conference, the Wildcats would need at least two wins in the SEC tournament to even be considered for the NCAA tournament. Kentucky is set for a unique problem – it seems to be NCAA or bust. With an overall record of 16-13, it does not seem as if the NIT would opt for the Wildcats – but if the ‘Cats can get into contention for an NIT bid, they would also be in contention for an NCAA bid because of their quality in-conference record. One win would be a very low seed in the NIT (6 or 7), two wins would be a 10 seed in the NCAA’s, making the finals would be a 8 or 9 seed, and winning the SEC tournament would likely hand the ‘Cats a 7 or 8 seed.

LSU (7-11, 0-4)

Analysis: The Tigers aren’t doing much of anything well. Their defense isn’t horrible, but their offense is the worst the SEC has seen in quite some time. Despite some big names (Randolph, Temple, Mitchell, Martin), LSU has surprisingly little depth and are simply not executing. Thornton has been everything offensively for LSU, recording an average of 18.7 points per game, but taking 15.5 shots per game and only hitting 41.2%. Randolph has a higher 46.5 percentage and blocks a league-second 2.4 shots per game, along with collecting 8.6 rebounds per contest. Center Chris Johnson seems to be a hidden star, as he shoots 62.1% and grabs 4.8 rebounds in only 27.3 minutes, yet he’s only played in 13 games this season.

Gameplan: Develop the bench and limit Thornton. He’s talented, but the scoring attack needs to be more balanced than any one player attempting 15.5 shots per game. Play Johnson more, get him the ball, and get Martin, Temple, and Mitchell more playing time.

Schedule

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Auburn (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Florida (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (L)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Miss. State (L)

Prediction: I know it’s extreme, but I can’t see a W in the remaining schedule. (7-23, 0-16)

Postseason: None, outside of a miracle win of the SEC tournament, in which case the Tigers would still get a 12-16 seed.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (13-5, 4-0)

Analysis: MSU has turned up the defensive heat lately and as a result remains the only undefeated team in SEC play. Jamont Gordon will be in the argument for SEC Player of the Year with his 17.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game and Jarvis Varnado will be in the mix for All-SEC First Team as he easily leads the nation in blocks per game (5.2). Varnado, or “Swat”, seems to alter even more shots than he blocks, as opponents’ inside games (with the exception of Alabama’s Hendrix) have crumbled under him as he also ranks second in the conference with 8.7 rebounds per game (behind – you guessed it, Hendrix). MSU ranks 2nd in the nation in blocks per game and field-goal percentage defense. The team’s glaring weakness seems to be free throw shooting, as the team ranks 11th out of 12 with an abysmal average of 59.8%. Also, the Bulldogs take too many threes (385) due to their 33.2% team average from long range.

Gameplan: Maximize Varnado’s playing time (only averaging 25.9 minutes per game – imagine if he played 35) and limit the threes. Take more time offensively to get the ball to the post or open a lane for Gordon. And hit. free. throws. No excuse for making less than 70%, much less 60%.

Schedule

vs. #15 Ole Miss (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (W)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Prediction: (21-9, 12-4)

Postseason: This record should easily hand MSU an NCAA bid. In the SEC tournament…No wins (8 seed), One win (7 seed), Two wins (5 seed), Overall win (4 seed).

#15 OLE MISS (15-2, 2-2)

Analysis: The Rebels characteristically have not been able to pull out games on the road due to their youth. Still a very well-coached and talented team, the Rebels are one of (if not the single) most efficient offensive teams in the conference, but the defense is lacking – another trait of young teams. The Rebels rebound surprisingly well for their youth and shoot well, but will not match up well against the defensive teams in the West such as Arkansas and Mississippi State. Chris Warren looks to compete for the title of SEC Freshman of the Year as he leads the team with an average of 15.9 points per game along with 5.3 assists to only 2.8 turnovers. The other offensive anchor is Dwayne Curtis, who’s inside skills bring him 15.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game along with averaging a league-leading 68.7% from the field. Other contributors such as Polynice, Huertas, and Williams all have potential to have a big game.

Gameplan: As good as he is, Warren is taking too many shots and Curtis, who leads the conference in field goal percentage, is only taking 8.6 per game. Swap the two’s attempts and leave Curtis out on the floor more. Get Williams more playing time, as he has tremendous potential, averaging 8.1 rebounds in only 25 minutes.

Schedule

@ Miss. State (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. Presbyterian (W)
@ Alabama (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
vs. Miss. State (W)
@ LSU (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Georgia (W)

Prediction: (25-5, 11-5)

Postseason: An NCAA bid should be a given, and depending on the SEC tournament results…No wins (7 seed), One win (6 seed), Two wins (4 seed), Overall win (3 seed).

SOUTH CAROLINA (9-9, 1-3)

Analysis: The Gamecocks shoot the three well, but are on the low side of mediocre in nearly everything else. With that said, the team’s lone conference win was a road win at Arkansas, a tough place to play, so the team has proven it can get hot. Three-point shooting teams are never out of any game. Downey is bolstering his First-Team All-SEC credentials by averaging 19.9 points and 5.0 assists per game, and Fredrick posts 16.1 points per game. The team’s best three-point shooter, Raley-Ross (61.2%) only attempts 3.1 threes per game. Rebounding is a weakness, also, as is depth.

Gameplan: Get Raley-Ross more playing time and encourage him to take more threes. Because of the guard-heavy lineup of the talent, the Gamecocks should focus on three-point sets in practice and build on their asset.

Schedule

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Georgia (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Florida (L)
vs. Miss. State (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)

Prediction: (12-18, 4-12)

Postseason: The Gamecocks would have to win the SEC tournament to receive a 10-15 seed in the NCAA tournament.

#3 TENNESSEE (16-2, 3-1)

Analysis: Although the Vols lead the league in three-pointers made per contest, the squad surprisingly ranks only 6th out of 12 in percentage behind the arc. That in and of itself suggests less reliance on the three-ball. With that said, it’s tough to improve on 16-2. Preseason All-American Chris Lofton has fizzled, shooting only 34.8% from behind the arc and 35.6% from the floor to average 13.8 points due to leading the team in attempts. Although it’s understandable to expect him to light up again, it’s time to hand the reigns over to Howell, who is an unsung star off the bench hitting 42.3% of his 3.9 attempts per game in 19.8 minutes. JaJuan Smith leads the Vols with 14.4 points per game along with a good 2.5:1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. Iowa transfer Tyler Smith anchors the inside game with 12.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, although he actually leads the team with 3.4 assists per game – an aspect of the game most big men are not particularly adept at. I suppose it’s easier when you’re surrounded by shooters.

Gameplan: Lofton needs to limit his shots and hand some of them over to Howell. Leading the conference in steals per game, the team needs to actually play some on-ball defense in a half-court setting as well if they hope to make a long run into the NCAA’s.

Schedule

vs. Georgia (W)
@ Alabama (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. Florida (W)
@ LSU (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Georgia (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ #1 Memphis (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (W)
vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Prediction: (26-4, 13-3)

Postseason: An NCAA bid is obvious here. Anything less than making the SEC Tournament finals will result in a 2 seed, and a tournament final should hand them a top seed, with a conference tournament win a possibility for the #1 overall seed.

#16 VANDERBILT (17-2, 2-2)

Analysis: The Commodores are a story of polar opposites. The team executes the most efficient offense in the SEC, but their defense is nearly non-existent. Whereas Tennessee plays little half-court defense but does press, Vandy does not. Shan Foster has a great argument for SEC Player of the Year with his 20.1 points and 4.9 rebounds per game along with a 51.2% shooting percentage, including 48.1 from behind the arc to easily lead the conference. Ogilvy is a lock for SEC All-Freshman team as he averages 18.5 points and 6.8 rebounds, although his production has lessened as he’s entered SEC play.

Gameplan: Extend the defense and employ at least a half-court trap (preferrably a full) the majority of the time. Rely less on Ogilvy to score now that SEC play is in full swing and involve Neltner or Metcalfe a bit more. Keep up the impressive offensive production.

Schedule

@ Florida (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ Georgia (W)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Kentucky (W)
vs. Florida (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. Miss. State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Prediction: (25-6, 10-6)

Postseason: Another automatic NCAA bid, with the SEC tournament: No wins (6 seed), One win (5 seed), Two wins (4 seed), Overall win (3 seed)

Hope you enjoy, comments are appreciated.