Wednesday games…

recaps coming soon…

Pre-SEC Tournament Breakdown

Here’s a recap of where each team stands a little over two weeks away from the SEC Tournament. This includes likely seeds in the conference tournament and postseason play, remaining games, etc.

Alabama (14-13, 3-9)

The Tide have played good teams close this season: 4-point loss at Arkansas, 10-point loss to #5 Georgetown, 7-point loss to #1 Tennessee, 7-point loss at Mississippi State. However, the lack of talented depth - particularly interior - has limited the numbers under the win collumn. The team’s defense is miserable, the worst in the SEC in fact, and the offense holds its own. Richard Hendrix is obviously the MVP here, as he is possibly the best overall player in the SEC and by far one of the most overlooked college players in the nation. Gee is a distant second, as he’ll need to work on his decision-making to be a serious threat in his senior season next year. Hendrix is certainly a threat to go pro - but without the press coverage of a good season, he should come back and set up Alabama with a potential to win the conference outright next season, as some talented recruits filter into the program, Steele becomes available for his senior season more healthy than he’s been in a while, and the squad loses nearly noone.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #5 seed
Round One: vs. Florida (W4)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Arkansas (18-8, 7-5)

The Razorbacks have played well, but look to fall just short of their predicted finish of first in the Western division, mainly due to missed opportunites for wins at Georgia (L, 69-82) and versus South Carolina (L, 66-70). The team excels in rebounding and defense, its game-plan very similar to Mississippi State. Ironically, both Weems and Beverly lead the team in scoring threats, although Beverly’s shooting has dropped off significantly from last year and his rebounding has drastically improved, despite the squad’s reliance on its big-men. None of the Arkansas players will likely make any NBA draft, although the team loses Ervin, Hill, Hunter, Thomas, Townes, and Weems next year as 2008-2009 looks to be a gigantic rebuilding year for the ‘Backs.

Remaining Schedule (Prediction)

@ Alabama (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Ole Miss (W)
vs. Auburn (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

21-9, 10-6

SEC Tournament

West #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. LSU (W6) or Vanderbilt (E3)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 8 seed

Auburn (14-11, 4-

The Tigers have lots of potential to score, but only from their shooters - not their offensive plays. The team excels at racing and cutting to the basket, but are very vertically challenged with only one player on the roaster taller than their coach, Jeff Lebo. Free-throw shooting and field-goal percentage are the squad’s specialties, but nearly nothing else is - and rebounding is certainly the team’s biggest weakness. Depth has also been an enormous issue, as rarely do more than six Tigers score in a given game. Prowell leads the team in scoring, although Barber is arguably the team’s most important player with 13.8ppg, 6.9rpg and shooting 72.0% from the field. Quantez Robertson is one of the most under-appreciated point guards in the conference, as he sports 4.3 assists to 1.8 turnovers per game. None of the players have a shot at going pro, and the team loses Archie, Prowell, and Tolbert for next season…a significant scoring loss for a team that can’t afford to lose much depth.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Mississippi State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (L)
@ Arkansas (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-14, 5-11

SEC Tournament

West #4 seed
Round One: vs. South Carolina (E5)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Florida (20-7, 7-5)

The very, very young Gators started off hot and looked to compete for the conference title, standing at 18-3 and 5-1 at one point. Since then, the freshmen have - like Ole Miss’ - hit the “brick wall”, as the squad has gone 2-4. The team is immensely talented (the nation’s top recruiting class for last year) but still very young and look to improve vastly next season. Defense has been shoddy at best, but the offense has been dynamic and nearly unstoppable. Calathes has been the catalyst for the team all season, as he leads the team with 15.3ppg, and also ranks among the top of the conference with 6.1 assists per game. Speights has proven to be a formidable inside prescense, putting up 7.8rpg and shooting 61.6% from the field. Losing noone for next year, this team looks to challenge for the overall SEC title next season and could very well end up as a Final Four threat before its all said and done.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Georgia (W)
vs. Mississippi St. (W)
vs. #1 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

22-9, 9-7

SEC Tournament

East #4 seed
Round One: vs. Alabama (W5)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 9 seed

Georgia (12-13, 3-9)

The Bulldogs, much like Alabama, have competed in nearly every game and played good fundamentals, but simply haven’t pulled through in the clutch. Close games include: 8-point loss at Gonzaga, a win over Arkansas, 5-point loss to Kentucky, 8-point loss to #18 Vanderbilt, 3-point loss to #1 Tennessee, and a 6-point loss at Kentucky. The team rebounds and defends well, but can’t get anything going offensively. Sundiata Gaines has proven to be a dominating player, shooting incredibly well and even averaging 6.6rpg. Gaines has a great potential to make the conference’s first-team, and certainly the second-team. With that said, when your playmaking guard is leading your team in rebounding, someone’s missing some assignments. Gaines will probably test the NBA waters but certainly won’t make the cut, and the team loses Gaines and Bliss headed into next season. Losing Gaines will likely mean yet another season at the bottom of the SEC East.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Ole Miss (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

East #6 seed
Round One: vs. Ole Miss (W3)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Kentucky (15-10, 9-3)

The two most interesting storylines heading into the postseason will be Kentucky and Ole Miss - direct opposites of each other. As the Rebels have a decent overall wins record and RPI, their SEC record is miserable. Conversely, the Wildcats have won just 15 games and have home losses to both Gardner-Webb (L, 68-84) and San Diego (L, 72-81) but have amassed an impressive 9-3 conference record with wins over #18 Vanderbilt, #1 Tennessee, and Arkansas. The team has taken advantage of a solid defensive prescense, decent rebounding, and the conference’s best free-throw shooting to edge into second place in the conference and within a game and a half of Tennessee for the lead. The interesting issue for Kentucky is that the NCAA selection committee will likely either have to leave out a 10+ win SEC team for the first time ever or hand out an at-large to a 18 or 19-win team. Crawford, Patterson, and Bradley each contribute more than 15 points for a Wildcat team that has struggled with talented depth. Patterson will battle Calathes and Ogilvy for SEC Freshman of the Year, averaging 16.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Bradley leads the league in free-throw shooting with an 85.6% mark from the charity stripe. The only likely NBA-bound player will be Patterson, although he would be advised not to leave this season. The Wildcats will take a major blow in the points column by losing both Bradley and Crawford next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

18-11, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Georgia (E6) or Ole Miss (W3)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 10 seed

LSU (10-16, 3-9)

Surprisingly competitve following coach Brady’s firing, the Tigers have since upset Florida, handed a 20-point demolition to Ole Miss, played #1 Tennessee to 2 points, and played Kentucky to 4. However, the big picture is an ugly one for the Tigers, as they trail the entire conference in an enormous amount of statistical categories. Rebounding isn’t good, defense is mediocre, and offense is horrendous. About the only plus for LSU is ranking [a distant] second in the league in blocks per game. Marcus Thornton is the playmaker for the Tigers, as he averages 18.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Anthony Randolph is a quality big-man down low, although he hasn’t fared particularly well against the SEC’s other great big-men, with 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Both players would be legitimate NBA material if on another team, but the obscene lack of depth and the absence of a point-guard for LSU will limit that until the team steps back onto the national scene. As a positive, the team loses noone of importance heading into next season, and should have every opportunity to improve upon this year’s dismal record.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Mississippi State (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

11-19, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #6 seed
Round One: vs. Vanderbilt (E3)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Mississippi State (18-8, 9-3)

With a two-game lead in the West with four games remaining, the Bulldogs have a strangle-hold on the division. Also just a game and a half back overall, the overall title is still a distant hope. None of this would have been predicted earlier in the season when MSU stood at 5-5 on the season with losses to both Miamis and Southern Illinois among others. No terrible losses, but games a Western-Division champion should win. State has improved drastically since that point, with the only noticeable losses being a 20-point blowout at Arkansas and a loss at rival Ole Miss. The team has peeled off this impressive stretch by ranking 2nd in the nation in both field-goal percentage defense and blocking, while sophomore defensive expert Jarvis Varnado leads the entire nation in blocks per game. Varnado has totalled more blocks personally than at least 7 SEC teams as a whole, and has long since surpassed MSU’s all-time single-season block record. Rebounding is also a specialty for the Bulldogs, although ball-handling and free-throw shooting could prove to be fatal shortcomings in the NCAA Tournament. State’s Gordon will challenge Vandy’s Shan Foster for SEC Player of the Year, as the all-america candidate is leading the team with 17.5ppg, 6.3rpg (as a point guard) and 4.7 assists per game - although 4.0 turnovers per game is far from desirable. Rhodes has stepped up his play lately to put himself into the argument for All-SEC First Team. Rhodes will likely throw his name into the draft as a senior, and if Gordon will follow Rhodes into the NBA will perhaps become the SEC’s biggest question this off-season. If not, Gordon could lead the Bulldogs back to the top of the West and to the NCAA’s.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #18 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 11-5

SEC Tournament

West #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Alabama (W5) or Florida (E4)
Semifinals: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 6 seed

Ole Miss (18-8, 4-

The Rebels have officially become “this year’s Clemson” after throwing the SEC on its heels by starting 13-0 but since have posted a 4-8 record, including being swept by Auburn and posting a 20-point loss at the SEC’s worst team, LSU. After appearing to be a certain NCAA lock, the team is now teetering on the wrong side of the bubble as the best possible outcome will be a sub-.500 SEC record. The team’s offensive efficiency has been outstanding for most of the season until recently, with freshman Chris Warren leading the charge. Defensively, the Rebels are non-existent although rebounding (behind Curtis) has become a trademark. Warren leads the Rebs both in scoring but in leadership - which has proved a major problem, as he is only a freshman. Curtis follows Hendrix as the conference’s best big-man, nearly averaging a double-double at 14.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. The team is very young and has tons of potential, but will lose most of its frontcourt with the exodus of Curtis (to graduation and then the NBA) and Williams, the teams’ often-overlooked but very talented forward (to graduation). Next year, the Rebels look to be equally as talented offensively but rebounding will suffer badly and defense should continue to struggle.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Georgia (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 6-8

SEC Tournament

West #3 seed
Round One: vs. Georgia (E6)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NIT: 1 seed

South Carolina (12-14, 4-

The Gamecocks are a stereotypical USC team - one talented point guard, and very little surrounding him. Downey can’t win every game on his own, and thus the squad has struggled. Amidst Odom’s announcement of his retirement at the end of the season, South Carolina has seemed just fall just short in nearly every game. South Carolina is actually one of the SEC’s best - if not the best - three-point shooting teams from a percentage aspect, but their reliance on the longball can get them into some trouble if they’re not falling. Downey is one of the conference’s top scorers, averaging 19.7 points per game, though he’s also putting up over 17 attempts per game. Downey is responsible, however, for 5.1 assists per outing. As a sophomore, Downey will likely leave his name out of the NBA waters, but he has the talent to get there at some point in his career. Losing literally noone from this year’s team, the Gamecocks are poised to be a competitive bunch next season, depending on the coaching change.v

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-17, 5-11

SEC Tournament

East #5 seed
Round One: vs. Auburn (W4)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Tennessee (25-3, 11-2)

After a thrilling upset of the nation’s top-ranked team in Memphis, the Vols were ushered into the top spot with welcome arms the following Monday. However, the excitement of the program’s first #1 ranking ever was soon lost on Tuesday night, as the Vols dropped a 3-point road decision to 18th-ranked Vanderbilt. Tennessee is still a menacing team sure to stretch their season long into the NCAA Tournament and continue to vie for a top seed barring no more losses until the conference tournament’s final game. Rebounding has been a pleasant surprise for head coach Bruce Pearl, mainly due to his genious coaching skills and the team knowing their placements on shot-selection. The team makes more three-pointers than any other team in the conference, but barely shoots an above-average percentage from that range. Balanced scoring has highlighted the team’s dynamic, as pre-season All-American Chris Lofton’s percentages has suffered this year. He still leads the team in scoring, but isn’t shooting even 40% from the field and is hoisting up almost 2 more shots per game than any other teammate. JuJuan Smith has evolved into a Jamont-Gordon-like dynamic player who’s able to do almost anything with the basketball, and Tyler Smith has lived up to the pre-season hype as one of the nation’s best incoming transfers. The immense wealth of talent that Pearl has so quickly stock-piled is unrivaled in the conference, and any number of players could prove to have NBA skills, including Lofton, Tyler/JuJuan Smith, and others. Because of this, it’s very difficult to pick out who may actually jump, although I suspect both Lofton and JuJuan Smith will put their names in the hat due to their lack of remaining eligibility. Those two are the only players lost for Tennessee (although they are very important pieces to the puzzle), so Tennessee could once again be in the running for a divisional or conference title next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

28-3, 14-2

SEC Tournament

East #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. South Carolina (E5) or Auburn (W4)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 1 seed

Vanderbilt (24-4, 9-4)

The Commodores started off at a red-hot clip, winning 16-straight games before losing 4 of their next 5. Appearing to be mimmicking Ole Miss’ epic implosion, the Commodores bounced back to a very good SEC record and have long since sealed their NCAA fates. The team (seemingly among many others in the Eastern Division) relies heavily on three-point shooting while rebounding isn’t a specialty, and has been anchored by SEC Player of the Year candidate Shan Foster and outstanding SEC Fresham of the Year candidate A.J. Ogilvy. Foster is near the top of the conference in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per contest on an absolutely excellent 51.6% shooting despite putting up over 13 attempts per game. Foster also is shooting over 45% from behind the arc and 5 rebounds per game. Ogilvy has proved formidable on the offensive end and less so on the defensive end, averaging 16.6ppg and 6.8rpg. Both players have NBA potential, although Foster is an almost definite as this is his last year. Ogilvy is a big question-mark, as he’s been on scouts’ radars even since his high-school days in Australia. If the team loses both, next year could be a semi-rebuilding year, although the NCAA’s would still be well within reach.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

at Arkansas (W)
vs. Mississippi State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

27-4, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #3 seed
Round One: vs. LSU (W6)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 3 seed

Tuesday game…

Overall: 132-32 (80.5%)
Vs. Spread: 58-54 (51.8%)
Overall (SEC): 39-14 (73.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 25-27 (48.1%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(24-4, 9-4) #18 Vanderbilt [72] vs. (25-3, 11-2) #1 Tennessee [69]: In an infamous “trap” game, coming off an upset of #1 Memphis and achieving the nation’s top ranking ever for a Tennessee team, the Vols dropped a hard-fought game just three days later to an increasingly impressive Vanderbilt team. The Commodores showed more heart and rythm from the outset, despite several Vol leads and just a three-point win. The Vol team, whether because of physical or emotional exhaustion, was simply not up to the very difficult task of putting away the ‘Dores on their own floor. Oddly becoming one of the conference’s better rebounding teams, Tennessee managed to outrebound Vandy 43-36, but were held to just 7-of-26 (26.9%) shooting from behind the arc - a rarity indeed. Otherwise, most categories were even with neither team shooting particularly well and taking care of the ball, although Vandy managed to accumulate a surprising 7 blocks as a team. Shan Foster had his way in every facet of the game, scoring a season-high 32 points on 9-of-13 shooting including an impressive 6-of-9 from behind the arc and grabbing 5 rebounds. He’s now scored 61 points in his last two games. Beal added 17 for the ‘Dores on 4-of-8 shooting. Lofton once again shot poorly but led the Vols by shooting enough, shooting 7-of-18 for 25 points, in addition to an overwhelming 15 shot attempts from long range. Tyler Smith recorded his sixth double-double of the season with a season-high 17 rebounds and 11 points.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores are screaming up the NCAA seed selection, potentially vying for a 3 or 4 seed now. The East title is still out of reach for the most part, however.
Impact [Tennessee]: Don’t look now, but Kentucky and Mississippi State are just a game and a half back from the overall conference title. The Vols will need to rebound from this emotional let-down quickly, as they’ll host the Wildcats before travelling to Florida. A NCAA one-seed is still easily within reach, but the overall top seed will require nearly no more losses, including the SEC tournament.
Stat of the Game: 21 total players seeing 2 or more minutes of playing time

Wednesday odds…

Overall: 132-31 (81.0%)
Vs. Spread: 58-53 (52.3%)
Overall (SEC): 39-13 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 25-26 (49.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(12-14, 4- South Carolina [#133] vs. (10-16, 3-9) LSU [#175]
Spread: South Carolina by 7.5
Pick: LSU - Although the Gamecocks should win, LSU has been improving and this shouldn’t be a blowout.
—Keys: LSU is entirely too unpredictable lately to make any pick of their games with confidence. The Tigers will need to extend their defense against USC’s three-point shooting, and the Gamecocks will need to keep Thornton and Randolph in check.

(12-13, 3-9) Georgia [#132] vs. (20-7, 7-5) Florida [#58]
Spread: Georgia by 1
Pick: Florida - This is one of the more obvious picks of the season. The Bulldogs simply don’t have the talent to match up with the Gators, although Florida is young and playing on the road.
—Keys: Calathes vs. Gaines - which will be contained more effectively?

(18-8, 9-3) Mississippi State [#40] vs. (14-11, 4- Auburn [#126]
Spread: Miss. State by 12.5
Pick: Miss. State - The Bulldogs took care of the Tigers in Auburn by 19. This is obviously a mismatch for Auburn size-wise, and should be a blowout.
—Keys:  The Tigers absolutely must stay out of foul trouble and find open shots against a potent defense to stay in the game.

(15-10, 9-3) Kentucky [#65] vs. (18-8, 4- Ole Miss [#43]
Spread: Kentucky by 3
Pick: Kentucky - The Rebels have fallen off lately, and the Wildcats know this is a must-win to keep their dim NCAA hopes alive.
—Keys: Watch the Patterson vs. Curtis matchup. The Rebels will need to hit some threes against the talented Kentucky defense.

(14-13, 3-9) Alabama [#130] vs. (18-8, 7-5) Arkansas [#36]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Arkansas - I’m going with the Razorbacks in the win, although the Tide have been tough both away and home and simply haven’t closed out games.
—Keys: If the Tide keep Hendrix out of foul trouble, they have a shot - he is absolutely necessary in the game to keep it close. The Razorbacks will need to take advantage of a very, very weak defense.

Sunday games, Tuesday odds…

Overall: 132-31 (81.0%)
Vs. Spread: 58-53 (52.3%)
Overall (SEC): 39-13 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 25-26 (49.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(14-11, 4- Auburn [88] vs. (14-13, 3-9) Alabama [76]: Precisely what I predicted happened - Alabama simply didn’t play enough defense to keep Auburn from scoring a ton of points. ‘Bama lost by double digits despite attempting 10 more shots and outrebounding the Tigers by 4. Both teams put up a ridiculous 28 shots from behind the arc, although Auburn hit 4 more than the Tide. Because of the continuing depth issues, two Tigers scored more than 20, led by Hargrove’s out-of-nowhere game-leading and career-high 28 points on 9-of-12 shooting, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, no turnovers, and 2 blocks. Prowell also pitched in 22 points on 4-of-6 shooting from long range and 9 rebounds. Gee once again attempted enough shots to lead the Tide in scoring with 20 on 8-of-20 shooting and 9 rebounds, while Hendrix continues his consistency with 16 points and 7 rebounds. Riley shot 4-of-8 from behind the arc for 15 points and secured 10 rebounds to record his first double-double of the season.
Impact [Auburn]: This was far from a quality win, and the Tigers still have a long ways to go to even be considered for the NIT.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are now in the group with Auburn and LSU, that being that the postseason is nearly out of the question at this point.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 4 blocks - not bad for the SEC’s shortest team

Tuesday Odds

(23-4, 8-4) #18 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (25-2, 11-1) #1 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 2.5
Pick: Tennessee - A very tough pick, but I think the Vols will carry their momentum over the Commodores.
—Keys: It’s all emotional - will the Vols rebound from an emotional win over Memphis to re-focus quickly on the road for Vanderbilt? If Tennessee can keep up their defensive pressure, the nation’s #1 team should continue winning.

Wirth Value: Week Sixteen

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (54.55, NC)
2. Tennessee (52.39, NC)
3. Florida (44.96, NC)
4. Ole Miss (37.80, NC)
5. Alabama (32.47, +2)
6. Arkansas (31.76, -1)
7. Kentucky (31.40, -1)
8. Miss. State (26.84, NC)
9. South Carolina (24.64, NC)
10. Auburn (21.56, NC)
11. Georgia (15.56, NC)
12. LSU (11.62, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (49.74, NC)
2. Arkansas (47.78, NC)
3. Kentucky (44.42, NC)
4. Tennessee (41.36, +1)
5. Georgia (33.23, -1)
6. Ole Miss (25.34, +4)
7. Florida (25.26, -1)
8. Vanderbilt (24.81, -1)
9. LSU (23.37, -1)
10. Alabama (21.43, -1)
11. South Carolina (17.69, NC)
12. Auburn (14.28, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (137.36, NC)
————————–
2. Vanderbilt (104.34, +2)
3. Florida (101.76, -1)
4. Arkansas (98.95, +2)
5. Ole Miss (98.92, -2)
6. Miss. State (97.30, -1)
————————–
7. Kentucky (84.02, NC)
8. Alabama (76.24, NC)
————————–
9. South Carolina (59.68, NC)
10. Georgia (58.87, NC)
————————–
11. Auburn (48.17, NC)
12. LSU (38.83, NC)

—As if the Vols hadn’t convinced us yet, they are clearly and unquestionably the best team in the nation, much less the SEC.

—The next group is split by only 7.04 points, and all look to reach the NCAA Tournament - although Ole Miss is not far from falling out of that group.

—The next group is distant NCAA hopefuls, with Kentucky the clearly more viable option.

—The next group is NIT hopefuls, although both teams are unlikely to claim a bid.

—The final group are teams that have effectively lost all postseason hopes.

Saturday games…

Overall: 131-31 (80.9%)
Vs. Spread: 57-53 (51.8%)
Overall (SEC): 38-13 (74.5%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 24-26 (48.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(15-10, 9-3) Kentucky [63] vs. (18-8, 7-5) Arkansas [58]: This was an intense game to the very end, as the Razorbacks led much of the game. As will happen in the SEC, however, the visiting team ran out of steam in the final minutes. Neither team shared the ball well, both teams shot decently, and Kentucky won the battle of the boards solidly. With lopsided scoring for both teams, Bradley and Crawford each scored 18 for the Wildcats in the win, combining for 10-of-25 shooting. Patterson rounded out Kentucky scorers in double digits with 14 points and 11 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season. Only two other Wildcats scored. For the Razorbacks, only Weems managed more than 8 points with his 26 on a ridiculous 20 attempts, while last year’s SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly shot just 1-of-8 from the floor for 4 points.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are clinging to their NCAA hopes, as no 10-win team has ever been left out of the NCAA tournament (that I know of). With that said, if the ‘Cats were to win just one more, they’d be the first. If Kentucky were to lose another game, it could prove fatal for their Big Dance hopes.
Impact [Arkansas]: Now two games behind MSU in the SEC West with just four games remaining, they have realistically lost the West. Time to focus on the NCAA’s, as the team will need to at least split their remaining four games to be considered.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 34 rebounds to Arkansas’ 22

(12-14, 4- South Carolina [56] vs. (18-8, 9-3) Mississippi State [61]: In the first overtime game for either team this season, the Bulldogs pulled out one of the conference’s most dramatic wins this season. With barely a second remaining in the game, State’s Hansbrough chucked up a desperation three to tie the game and was fouled. Despite the immense pressure, Hansbrough swished all three extra shots to send the game to overtime where MSU - without Varnado or Gordon - dominated. Senior Charles Rhodes was the only State player in double digits with 24 on 11-of-17 shooting along with 9 rebounds, while Varnado brought down 12 rebounds and 7 points. All-america candidate Gordon shot just 3-of-10 for 9 points, 5 rebounds, and an unacceptable 7 turnovers. Downey couldn’t figure out State’s zone, shooting 6-of-18 for 19 points while freshman Mike Holmes proved a spark off the bench with 12 points and 13 rebounds to record his second-straight double-double.
Impact [South Carolina]: With just four games remaining, the NIT is looking like an improbability without winning them all and reaching the SEC Tournament finals.
Impact [Miss. State]: Now 2 games ahead in the West with just four games remaining, State has effectively sealed their stake on the divisional title. The NCAA’s are probable as long as the squad doesn’t drop the “gimme”s (LSU and Auburn at home), so seeding will now be the main focus for the Bulldogs.
Stat of the Game: State’s 43.4% shooting compared to USC’s 30.8%

(23-4, 8-4) #20 Vanderbilt [86] vs. (12-13, 3-9) Georgia [74]: As expected, the Bulldogs’ offense couldn’t keep up with the Commodore offense, and Georgia’s defense wasn’t enough to hold Vandy back. Foster made yet another argument for SEC Player of the Year with 29 points on 11-of-18 shooting and 6 rebounds, while Alex Gordon was no slouch with 23 points on an impressive 7-of-9 shooting from behind the arc and 4 assists. Ogilvy also fared relatively well, shooting 5-of-7 for 14 points and 6 rebounds. Gaines was most of UGA’s offense (surprise, huh?) with 24 points on 19 attempts along with 5 rebounds and 6 assists, Bliss claimed 10 rebounds, and Humphrey added 15 points.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It’s looking like the ‘Dores avoided the major collapse that Ole Miss has experienced and are set for a very substantial seed in the NCAA’s. None of the remaining games are easy, but 2 or 3 more wins could bump up this team to a 3 or 4 seed.
Impact [Georgia]: As with USC, the postseason is out of the question without winning all of the remaining regular season games and reaching the SEC Tournament finals.
Stat of the Game: Only 12 people total scoring points in the game

(10-16, 3-9) LSU [69] vs. (18-8, 4- Ole Miss [49]: A loss to LSU would have severely damaged Ole Miss’ NCAA chances, but a 20-point blowout to a bottom-of-the-barrell LSU team and dropping to 0-6 on the road in league play is as close to a knockout blow as they could get. Ironically, neither team shot well but the Rebels - obviously - shot much worse than bad. The SEC’s best rebounding team also got outrebounded by the Tigers and clearly was outhustled in every category. The Tigers were led by a pair of double-doubles, as Randolph put up 15 points and 11 rebounds for his seventh of the season and Chris Johnson contributed 12 points and 15 rebounds for his second of the season. Thornton led all scorers with 17 points. Amazingly, not a single Ole Miss player scored in double digits, with Huertas coming the closest with 9 points on 2-of-11 shooting and 10 rebounds. Polynice shot 2-of-8 but did collect 12 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: With the post-season out of the question, a morale victory and momentum towards next season may be the only positives left available for the Tigers at this point.
Impact [Ole Miss]: As stated before, this was a huge blow for Ole Miss in nearly every way. Unless the Rebels finish 4-0, their NCAA hopes are not good.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss’ 19-of-71 (26.8%) shooting from the floor

(26-1, 12-0) #1 Memphis [#2] (25-2, 11-1) #2 Tennessee [#1]: The clash of top-ranked teams hype lived up to its potential, as the Vols came away with an absolutely tremendous road victory, effectively sealing their argument on the nation’s #1 overall NCAA seed if they win out. Tennessee heavily outrebounded the Tigers but turned the ball over more to negate their rebounding to a degree. The Vols were - again - led by balanced scoring, this time Tyler Smith scored the most with 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting and 6 rebounds. JuJuan Smith added 9 points and led the team with 10 rebounds, while Lofton shot just 2-of-11 and 0-of-4 from long range for 7 points. Rose led the Tigers in scoring with 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: If the Vols can win out, the nation’s top seed is theirs.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 46-31 rebound advantage

Sunday Odds

(13-11, 3- Auburn [#139] vs. (14-12, 3- Alabama [#122]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Auburn - The Tigers have been playing competitively and should win this game at home due to good shooting and a very, very poor Alabama defense
—Keys: The Tide will need to find some defense. If the Tigers shoot as well as they are capable, this could even be a blowout.

Saturday odds…

Overall: 129-29 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-51 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 36-11 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-24 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 18-6

(14-10, 8-3) Kentucky [#73] vs. (18-7, 7-4) Arkansas [#35]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: Kentucky - The Wildcats are playing well at home and the Razorbacks are playing poorly on the road.
—Keys: Kentucky’s excellent free throw shooting should win them the game

(12-13, 4-7) South Carolina [#118] vs. (17-8, 8-3) Mississippi State [#44]
Spread: Miss. State by 3
Pick: South Carolina - The Gamecocks have the shooting, especially at home, to win this game. USC is one of the SEC’s best three-point shooting teams.
—Keys: As MSU’s defense has been lagging recently, the Bulldogs will need to defend the three to have a chance to win

(22-4, 7-4) #20 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (12-12, 3- Georgia [#129]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 7
Pick: Vanderbilt - The Commodores’ offense should overcome the Dogs’ defense relatively easily.
—Keys: Watch out for the Gaines vs. Foster matchup

(9-16, 2-9) LSU [#184] vs. (18-7, 4-7) Ole Miss [#41]
Spread: Ole Miss by 4
Pick: Ole Miss - Although the Tigers are playing better, the Rebels are playing for the NCAA Tournament.
—Keys: This game is a potential back-breaker for the Rebels…how will the freshman handle the pressure?

Wednesday games…

Overall: 129-29 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-51 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 36-11 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-24 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 18-6

(18-7, 7-4) Arkansas [87] vs. (9-16, 2-9) LSU [61]: This game went about how the records would indicate it should. Arkansas’ scoring was impressively balanced, led by Ervin’s 7-of-13 shooting for 17 points and 6 rebounds, while Townes hit a perfect 6-of-6 to score 12 and add 7 rebounds. Welsh and Weems also scored in double digits, while Beverly actually fell just one short but claimed 9 rebounds. LSU simply couldn’t get anything going on offense against Arkansas’ potent defense, with Randolph, Johnson, and Martin combining for 38 attempts and 19 makes.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks move just a game back in the West, but will need to learn to play on the road to compete with MSU. Regardless, 2 more wins should solidify an NCAA bid, but 3 would be unquestionable.
Impact [LSU]: Very little, except soundly ending any momentum the Tigers may have had moving towards the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas shooting 15.6% better than LSU from the field

(20-7, 7-5) Florida [85] vs. (12-13, 4-7) South Carolina [82]: The Gators’ lack of defense almost bit them again (pun intended), but they squeaked out a win in a game that otherwise would have been a NCAA-hope downer. Both teams were absolutely on fire from the field, with Florida better from the field and USC better from long range and both poor from the charity stripe. Five Gators scored in double digits, led by Calathes’ 6-of-11 shooting, with Speights scoring 10 and claiming 10 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season. Baniulis and Downey each led the Gamecocks with 18 points on a collective 13-of-27 shooting effort while freshman Mike Holmes scored a season-high 16 points and recorded his first double-double of the season with 11 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: This is a sign more than ever that the Gators absolutely have to buckle down on defense or there will be some one-and-dones in their near future. Florida will likely need to win at least two more to solidify their stake in the NCAA’s due to a very weak non-conference schedule.
Impact [South Carolina]: It’s all about the SEC Tournament now, as the Gamecocks are likely out of the question for any postseason play.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 12-of-23 (52.2%) from three

(18-7, 4-7) Ole Miss [74] vs. (17-8, 8-3) Mississippi State [63]: Interesting how each team seemed to be overly focused on the other - as can happen in intense rivalry games. Both teams started the game absolutely on fire, as MSU began hitting 8 of their first 9 shots. Both teams then went into a slump, began hitting shots down the stretch, and naturally the home team finished with a slight advantage. Neither team shot spectacularly, with Ole Miss owning a slight advantage in that collumn as well. Warren brought home 22 points, assisted by his 18 shot attempts, while Curtis proved his interior dominance with 10 points and a tremendous 16 rebounds for his 13th double-double of the season. Gordon led State with 20 points in a similar case to Warren, attempting 17 shots and 11 of those from behind the arc, while Stewart led MSU in rebounding with 8.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The win was certainly a boost for the Rebels, who are desperately clawing for an argument for NCAA Tournament inclusion despite a gaudy overall record. The Rebs likely need to win 4 more (with 5 games remaining plus the SEC Tournament) to make the Big Dance.
Impact [Miss. State]: This was one of the more winnable games remaining on MSU’s very tough remainder to the schedule. With just a game lead in the West, State will need to win at least 2 more to feel slightly comfortable with a win in the SEC Tournament to make the NCAA’s, 3 more to be a lock.
Stat of the Game: Curtis responsible for 39.0% of Ole Miss’ rebounds

(24-2, 11-1) #2 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-11, 3- Auburn [70]: The Volunteers certainly proved they were not looking ahead to Saturday’s #1 vs. #2 matchup in this game, leading at halftime 46-20. Auburn got absolutely nothing going on offense and Tennessee tickled the bottom of the net time after time, also outrebounding the Tigers. Lofton shot just 4-of-10 from the floor but led the Vols with 19 points, and Tyler Smith notched 13 points and rebounds apiece for his 5th double-double of the season and 2nd in a row. Tolbert and Prowell supplied nearly all of Auburn’s offense with a combined 45 points and 16 rebounds on 14-of-32 shooting, with Tolbert respsonsible for 10 rebounds to record his 1st double-double of the season.
Impact [Tennessee]: No harm no foul as the Volunteers battle #1 Memphis this weekend for a stake as the nation’s #1 overall seed.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers will likely need to win out to even have an argument for the NIT - it’s about time to begin building up momentum for the SEC Tournament because that’s not going to happen.
Stat of the Game: 9 Tennessee players scoring at least 4 points

Tuesday game, Wednesday Odds…

Overall: 126-28 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-47 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 33-10 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-20 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 17-6

Tuesday Game

(14-10, 8-3) Kentucky [61] vs. (12-12, 3- Georgia [55]: Dominating early, the Wildcats fell into desparity late in the game while the Bulldogs hit three after three, bringing the game within striking distance. Unfortunately for Georgia, that wasn’t enough. Highlighting the ‘Cats’ lack of depth, Crawford and Patterson combined for 70.5% of Kentucky’s points, with Crawford responsible for 23 points on 4-of-9 shooting from long range and Patterson pitching in 20 on 8-of-15 shooting and 9 rebounds. Bradley strangely led the team in rebounding with 12, but the SEC’s best free-throw shooter was 0-of-2 from the charity stripe. Woodbury led the Bulldogs in scoring with 15 on just 5-of-15 shooting, while Gaines marked his third double-double of the season with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists to three turnovers.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are desperately trying to bolster their NCAA argument and losing at home to Georgia would have been a knockout blow. The ‘Cats absolutely can’t afford a loss to a “lower” team at this point, and still need to finish 4-1 or 5-0 to even come close to the bubble.
Impact [Georgia]: As proven last night, the Bulldogs just don’t have the depth off the bench to keep their starters rested in big games. Any postseason is becoming unlikely at this point.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s bench responsible for just 4.9% of their scoring

Wednesday Odds

(23-2, 10-1) #2 Tennessee [#1] vs. (13-10, 3-7) Auburn [#147]
Spread: Tennessee by 16.5
Pick: Auburn - Although the Vols should win easily, the Tigers have the shooting prowess and speed to keep this reasonable.
—Keys: Auburn’s three-point shooting - the Vols have a decent defense and Auburn will be playing on the road. If the Tigers can manage to hit some from behind the arc, the game could be close.

(17-7, 3-7) Ole Miss [#47] vs. (17-7, 8-2) Mississippi State [#43]
Spread: Ole Miss by 1.5
Pick: Mississippi State - By rule of momentum and comparison, MSU should win. The Rebels seem to be floundering, State has played well on the road, and the Rebels lost to a much worse Auburn team at home.
—Keys: Points in the paint - the guards should come close to even, so Rhodes and Curtis will be relied upon heavily to contribute. Also, Warren or Gordon’s ability to get to the rim could define the outcome.

(19-7, 6-5) Florida [#57] vs. (12-12, 4-6) South Carolina [#117]
Spread: Florida by 8.5
Pick: Florida - Although the Gators have been struggling recently, the home crowd should give the potent offense the confidence they so desperately need.
—Keys: Florida’s offense - Although Downey will almost no doubt score more than 20, the Gamecocks won’t be able to compete offensively if the Gators can get their shooting touch back.

(17-7, 6-4) Arkansas [#32] vs. (9-15, 2- LSU [#185]
Spread: Arkansas by 12
Pick: LSU - Not long ago this would have been an easy pick the other way. With LSU’s newly-found motivation, this should be a sub-10 point decision for the Razorbacks.
—Keys: Blocks - Both teams have talented shot-blockers, and if either team relies too heavily on interior scoring it could be a long night. With that said, Arkansas clearly has the upper hand in scoring from behind the arc.

No more Pomeroy Predictions…

They seem rather irrelevant with the end of the season coming up.

As a side note, be sure to leave comments if you are reading - it’s a nice dose of motivation.

Wirth Value: Week Fifteen

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (51.45, NC)
2. Tennessee (50.95, NC)
3. Florida (44.11, NC)
4. Ole Miss (41.48, NC)
5. Arkansas (31.43, NC)
6. Kentucky (30.29, NC)
7. Alabama (29.85, +1)
8. Miss. State (28.01, -1)
9. South Carolina (24.99, NC)
10. Auburn (23.37, NC)
11. Georgia (16.23, NC)
12. LSU (10.38, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (49.75, +1)
2. Arkansas (49.01, -1)
3. Kentucky (40.48, NC)
4. Georgia (38.00, +1)
5. Tennessee (37.05, -1)
6. Florida (26.61, NC)
7. Vanderbilt (24.85, +3)
8. LSU (24.80, NC)
9. Alabama (21.92, +2)
10. Ole Miss (21.47, -3)
11. South Carolina (18.61, -2)
12. Auburn (14.12, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (131.92, NC)
2. Florida (101.73, +2)
3. Ole Miss (101.68, NC)
4. Vanderbilt (100.34, +2)
5. Miss. State (100.23, NC)
6. Arkansas (98.62, -4)
—————————-
7. Kentucky (78.87, NC)
8. Alabama (72.38, +1)
—————————-
9. South Carolina (63.41, -1)
10. Georgia (62.41, NC)
—————————-
11. Auburn (49.68, NC)
12. LSU (38.60, NC)

—The most noticeable thing to me this week is the 2nd-5th place groups overall, seperated by just 1.50 points. Arkansas is just 1.61 points out of that group. With Tennessee absolutely dominating the league statistically, the 2nd-6th group should all be NCAA squads.

—The next group of Kentucky and Alabama are likely high NIT seeds but very unlikely to reach the NCAA’s without a miracle turn-around.

—Next up is South Carolina and Georgia, who are low bubble teams for the NIT, and following those are Auburn and LSU who have very little to no hope of seeing any postseason play.

Saturday games…

Overall: 126-28 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-47 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 33-10 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-20 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 17-6

(9-15, 2- LSU [63] vs. (13-10, 7-3) Kentucky [67]: Thornton simply couldn’t find his shot in this game, as he scored 9 points on 4-of-14 shooting. With only two main offensive threats, LSU can’t afford for anyone to have an off-night. Both teams shot well from the field - although the Tigers struggled yet again from long range - and LSU slightly outrebounded the Wildcats. Joe Crawford led Kentucky with 21 points on 3-of-7 shooting from behind the arc, Patterson put up 14 points on 7-of-10 shooting and 5 rebounds, and Bradley hit a perfect 4 free throws, grabbed 7 rebounds and dished 6 assists, but turned the ball over 5 times. Randolph led all scorers with 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting and claimed 14 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season.
Impact [LSU]: The Tigers are finally playing talented teams closely, but it’s far beyond too little too late.
Impact [Kentucky]: Unless the ‘Cats win out, their NCAA chances are gone without winning the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: Without their 3 leading scorers, each team combined for just 34 points.

(22-4, 7-4) #24 Vanderbilt [61] vs. (19-7, 6-5) Florida [58]: Despite Vanderbilt - the conference’s best 3-point shooting team - hitting only 37.9% of their shots from the field, the Gators were held to just 1-of-15 shooting from behind the arc and ultimately fell just one made three short of at least sending the game to overtime. Shan Foster easily led all scorers with 19 points on 7-of-16 shooting along with 6 rebounds while Ogilvy neared double-double status with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Calathes and Speights each contributed 11 for the Gators - Calathes with 6 assists to 3 turnovers - and Hodge added  10 points and 5 assists to 1 turnover.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Now playing for seeding with an NCAA bid effectively in-hand, the ‘Dores will stay in the Top 25 and continue receiving exposure with the win.
Impact [Florida]: Realistically in the NCAA’s barring a major implosion, the Gators are also battling for seeding. With their very weak non-conference SOS, the squad will need to rack up some wins late to receive a decent seed.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 6.7% three-point shooting

(12-11, 3-7) Georgia [71] vs. (23-2, 10-1) #4 Tennessee [74]: Give the Volunteers credit for finding ways to win on the road, because they trailed much of this game. The contest evolved into a shooting match between Gaines and Lofton, and ended similar to the overall score - close. Lofton put up 22 points on 6-of-12 shooting from behind the arc (wow) while Chism managed 16 points and 9 rebounds and Tyler Smith recorded 12 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season. Gaines outscored Lofton by 1 with 23 points on 8-of-20 shooting, 9 rebounds, and 8 assits to approach triple-double status, and Woodbury had 14 points and 6 rebounds for the Bulldogs.
Impact [Georgia]: NIT hopes are still alive for the Bulldogs, but just barely as the team would need to nearly win out to make the cut. With that said, a three-point loss to a national-title contender is something to be proud of for a 12-11 team.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols are looking increasingly vulnerable, but a trip to Memphis this weekend should solidify the winner of that game as the nation’s top overall seed. The Vols still must visit Vanderbilt and Florida as well, both games to keep an eye on if Tennessee hopes to maintain their status as a top seed.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 46.2% free throw shooting

(17-7, 8-2) Mississippi State [80] vs. (17-7, 6-4) Arkansas [74]: State dominated the first half, eating through the Arkansas defense and leading by 13. The ‘Backs came to life in the second, though, and went on a 19-4 run to open the half and regain the lead. Apparently the Dogs have been working on their putrid free-throw shooting, because for seemingly the up-teenth time this season free-throw shooting down the stretch won them the game. Senior Charles Rhodes scored 19 points by halftime and finished with 24 - including a made three-pointer - but only 1 rebound while Stewart shot 3-of-5 from behind the arc and a perfect 6-of-6 from the charity stripe to contribute 19 points. Varnado swatted just 3 points but grabed 10 rebounds and scored 10 points for the fourth double-double of the season. Gary Ervin played well in his last game playing at his former school, shooting 6-of-11 from the field along with 2-of-3 shooting from behind the arc.
Impact [Miss. State]: With the win, State has full control of the Western Division without a huge turnaround for both teams. MSU has effectively moved into the “probably” category for the NCAA’s, but at least 3 more wins either in the regular season or in the conference tournament will be needed to solidify their stake.
Impact [Arkansas]: As stated above, the West if now firmly in the hands of MSU. Arkansas still has a distant shot, however, and still appear to be a solid pick for the NCAA’s, but as with State, a few more wins will be needed to assure themselves a spot.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s +8 rebound advantage

(17-7, 3-7) Ole Miss [78] vs. (13-10, 3-7) Auburn [90]: After an undefeated run through the non-conference schedule, the Rebels are trying as hard as they can to play themselves out of the NCAA’s. Auburn’s superior ball-handling and the Rebels’ lack of defense allowed the Tigers to scorch the nets, hitting 32-of-51 attempts. Two Auburn players scored more than 20 points, led by Prowell’s 25 on 11-of-15 shooting from the field, including 3-of-5 from behind the arc. Reed wasn’t far behind with 23 points on 5-of-10 shooting, including a 4-of-7 effort from long range, but turned the ball over 5 times. Warren didn’t shoot nearly as often as usualy, bringing down just 8 points, as freshman Trevor Gaskins was the surprise lead scorer for Ole Miss with 15 points.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This was possibly the most destructive loss of the season for the Rebels, as the squad has now been swept by a 3-7 Auburn team. The Rebels will need a 4-2 mark or better in the remainder of their schedule to even be considered for the NCAA’s.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers are playing decently well, but they can’t afford to lose more than one the remainder of the way if they hope to make the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 62.7% shooting percentage

(12-12, 4-6) South Carolina [67] vs. (14-12, 3- Alabama [65]: Another matchup of shooters, this time of Downey and Riley. Alabama heavily outshot the Gamecocks percentage-wise, but USC forced 18 turnovers and claimed 4 more offensive rebounds to attempt a full 22 more shots than the Tide. Downey led all scorers for the Gamecocks with 29 points on 6-of-10 shooting from long range and a game-high 7 steals. Archie shot 6-of-12 for 17 points. Riley fell just a point shy of Downey with 28 points on an incredible 8-of-10 effort from behind the arc along with 9 rebounds while Hendrix contributed the 13th double-double of the season with 17 points and 10 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: As with Georgia, the Gamecocks are still in the running for the NIT, but barely. An almost undefeated record from here out would be necessary.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are in a similar boat, as a near-perfect record in the remainder of the schedule will be necessary to be considered for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Riley/Downey combining for 43.2% of the game’s points

Saturday odds…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 15-6

(9-14, 2-7) LSU [#176] vs. (12-10, 6-3) Kentucky [#84]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: LSU - I’m picking the Tigers in the upset. Although the Wildcats have been a better team, both teams have depth troubles and LSU has the momentum and home floor.
—Keys: Patterson will need to forge a way through some talented big-men while Randolph/Thornton will need to stay hot. Look for a very low-scoring game.

(21-4, 6-4) #24 Vanderbilt [#12] vs. (19-6, 6-4) Florida [#61]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 3.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - The Gators are very young and should fall by 5+ on the road.
—Keys: All eyes are on Florida to see how the talented team reacts to losing an embarassing decision at home to LSU. Both teams are essentially playing for NCAA seeding.

(12-10, 3-6) Georgia [#121] vs. (22-2, 9-1) #4 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 6.5
Pick: Tennessee - This was a tough call because this very well could be a close game, but the Bulldogs don’t have the depth to match the Volunteers.
—Keys: Both defenses are pretty good, but Georgia’s will have to step up big time to pull out the “W”. An interesting bet would be who scores more: Gaines or Lofton?

(16-7, 7-2) Mississippi State [#51] vs. (17-6, 6-3) Arkansas [#28]
Spread: Miss. State by 5
Pick- Mississippi State - This was the most difficult call all season, but I will almost always choose the home team in a draw.
—Keys: This game could decide the West, and both teams have hurt their momentum lately. Arkansas should be relying on Weems and Beverly from outsie while State should be relying on Rhodes inside and Gordon to get to the lane.

(17-6, 3-6) Ole Miss [#31] vs. (12-10, 2-7) Auburn [#173]
Spread: Ole Miss by 13.5
Pick: Ole Miss - The Tigers have not been playing well and do not have the size to match up with Curtis in the paint, while relying on threes on the road can spell trouble.
—Keys: As long as the Rebels’ 3-point defense is decent, this should be a relatively easy win.

(11-12, 3-6) South Carolina [#111] vs. (14-11, 3-7) Alabama [#108]
Spread: South Carolina by 2
Pick: South Carolina - Both teams are on the upswing, but the Gamecocks are playing better at home than the Tide is playing on the road.
—Keys: If Alabama turns the ball over more than 20 times, they have no chance to win.

Tuesday and Wednesday games…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 15-6

Tuesday Game

(21-4, 6-4) #24 Vanderbilt [93] vs. (12-10, 6-3) Kentucky [52]: This game will go down in infamy as denoting Kentucky’s single worst loss to an SEC opponent in history. In a seemingly perfect storm, the Commodores couldn’t go wrong on offense, blind-siding Kentucky with open threes, easy layups, and backdoor cuts while the Wildcats simply couldn’t do anything on defense. Stallings figured out how to keep Patterson out of the game and the Wildcats got in foul trouble by forcing the ball inside. In a matchup of SEC Freshman of the Year candidates, Ogilvy dominated Patterson, shooting 5-of-10 along with 9-of-11 from the charity stripe for 19 points and claiming 12 rebounds. Conversely, Patterson shot 3-of-9 from the field and managed 5 rebounds. Neither inside man blocked a shot. Foster led the ‘Dores in scoring per the usual, chipping in 20 points while Bradley was the only hope for Kentucky with a game-high 21 on 8-of-19 shooting. The main difference was Vandy’s bench, as they outscored Kentucky’s heavily.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Despite this being a game the ‘Dores were “supposed” to win at home, the 41-point blowout of Kentucky put an emphatic “Yes” after the question as to whether the ‘Dores would still make the Dance. It’s all about seeding at this point.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are still easily over .500 in-conference, but after this nationally-televised humiliation, the ‘Cats will likely need to win nearly ever game from here on out to become an at-large.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s bench scoring 25 points versus Kentucky’s 10.

Wednesday Games

(14-11, 3-7) Alabama [76] vs. (17-6, 3-6) Ole Miss [67]: The Rebels’ road problems continue as Ole Miss assumes position as college basketball’s ultimate dive-bomb for this season. However, let’s not forget the youth of this team and how remarkable 14-straight wins was - if the team had been 3-6 without the undefeated record little would be said, because this is the kind of performance expected by such a young team. The game was close as the Tide pulled away late, and no team dominated any categories except ball-handling and free throws. Five Tide members scored in double digits, led by Riley’s impressive 22-point outing on 5-of-12 shooting from behind the arc - someone was desperate to get some shots up - and 7 rebounds. Hendrix didn’t get enough touches, with only 8 shot attempts, but 8 rebounds while Gee shot poorly but added 9 rebounds. Warren shot a miserable 5-of-19 (relying a little too heavily on one player, guys?) for 13 points and Hendrix kept Curtis from being a factor offensively, as he pulled down only 3 points.
Impact [Alabama]: The bottom of the West is becoming muddled, but that is irrelevant, truthfully. Alabama is realistically out of the NCAA chase, and will need a 4-2 mark or so from here on out to have an argument for the NIT.
Impact [Ole Miss]: Despite their impressive beginning, it’s beginning to look more and more like the Rebels will be a high seed in the NIT. 20 wins may not do it, so a 4-3 mark at very least will be needed to be considered for the NCAA’s.
Stat of the Game: The Rebels’ 9:16 assist-to-turnover ratio

(19-6, 6-4) Florida [73] vs. (9-14, 2-7) LSU [85]: In what was possibly the SEC’s biggest upset of this season, the Tigers led most of this game and won by 12. After losing to Tennessee by only 2 at home and following that up with a 12-point road win over the Gators, the question is nagging everyone: Is LSU better off without John Brady? It certainly appears so. Two Tigers scored at least 20 points, as Randolph led all scorers with 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting and 5 rebounds while Thornton added 20 on 8-of-11 shooting (including 4-of-7 from three) and 4 steals. Johnson also shot 8-of-11, his for 19 points while two other Tigers scored in double digits. Calathes led the Gators with 16 points and 5 assists, along with an uncharacteristic 5 turnovers, while Werner shot just 6-of-16 (and 1-of-7 from long range) for 13 points.
Impact [Florida]: Although this should still relatively easily be an NCAA team, the team will need at least a 2-4 mark or so from here on out to solidify their stake. The impact of this loss could be felt down the line as the team has now officially fallen out of the race for the East - keep an eye on the squad’s motivation after a tough loss.
Impact [LSU]: It’s tough to hear, but it’s too little too late for the Tigers. Even if LSU won the remainder of their games and made the SEC Tournament finals, they likely would be left out of even the NIT.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s +18 rebound margin

(12-10, 3-6) Georgia [82] vs. (11-12, 3-6) South Carolina [64]: In a game of very little consequence outside of UGA or USC fans, the Bulldogs managed to attempt to make a statement in this 18-point blowout. This game was pure domination in every aspect - especially in the rebounding collumn, where’s Georgia’s margin was just obscene. After putting up 32 on Florida in Gainesville, Sundiata Gaines came out hot again to register 27 against the Gamecocks on 8-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-7 from behind the arc, along with 8 rebounds. Two ‘Dogs recorded double-doubles for their first times this season, Bliss with 12 points and 10 rebounds and Price with 19 points and 12 rebounds. Downey was everything for USC, scoring 20 points on a 4-of-7 effort from behind the arc along with 5 assists and 3 steals.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little. The ‘Dogs are out of the race for the NCAA’s and will need a tremendous 6-1 showing to be considered for the NIT.
Impact [South Carolina]: Very little. The Gamecocks are battling for last place in the East and will need a nearly perfect record from here on out for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: UGA’s 42-19 rebound advantage

(22-2, 9-1) #4 Tennessee [93] vs. (17-6, 6-3) Arkansas [71]: In a game with tremendous consequences for both teams, the Vols ironically seemed to sneak up on a 22-point blowout. The game seemed very competitive, and yet the Vols slowly added to their comfortable lead. Tennessee shot noticeably better, but otherwise very little stands out about the game statistically. JuJuan Smith stole the show, tying a season-high with 32 points on 9-of-13 from the field, but more impressively - a 6-of-6 mark from behind the arc. Tyler Smith and Chism each pitched in 15 points while Lofton was suffocated when he touched the ball and it was noticeable in his stats: 2-of-8 from the field and 0-of-3 from behind the arc, finishing with just 6 points. Weems has been carrying the ‘Backs lately, as he created most of Arkansas’ offense with his 20 points on 8-of-17 shooting along with a 3-of-6 mark from long range along with 7 rebounds.
Impact [Tennessee]: With the win, the Vols have pretty much tied up the overall SEC title barring a major misjudgement of Arkansas or MSU. The Vols are still one of the frontrunners for a #1 seed nationally.
Impact [Arkansas]: With the loss, the ‘Backs have effectively fallen out of the overall SEC title race. The race is on for the West, though, with the ‘Backs travelling to Starkville to face MSU in a game that should effectively decide the winner of the division.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 44.4% shooting from behind the arc

Wirth Value: Week Fourteen

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (52.59, +1)
2. Tennessee (47.39, -1)
3. Florida (46.06, NC)
4. Ole Miss (45.62, NC)
5. Arkansas (34.19, +1)
6. Kentucky (32.87, +1)
7. Miss. State (27.97, +2)
8. Alabama (27.46, -3)
9. South Carolina (26.60, -1)
10. Auburn (18.35, NC)
11. Georgia (16.06, NC)
12. LSU (10.17, NC)

Defense

1. Arkansas (52.48, NC)
2. Miss. State (49.99, NC)
3. Kentucky (44.70, +1)
4. Tennessee (35.42, +1)
5. Georgia (35.26, -2)
6. Florida (28.46, NC)
7. Ole Miss (25.41, +1)
8. LSU (24.16, +1)
9. South Carolina (22.80, -2)
10. Vanderbilt (18.91, NC)
11. Alabama (17.16, NC)
12. Auburn (13.14, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (125.42, NC)
2. Arkansas (110.96, +2)
3. Ole Miss (109.47, NC)
4. Florida (107.07, -2)
5. Miss. State (98.53, +1)
6. Vanderbilt (96.75, -1)
7. Kentucky (86.37, NC)
8. South Carolina (67.59, +1)
9. Alabama (65.22, -1)
10. Georgia (59.80, NC)
11. Auburn (44.01, NC)
12. LSU (36.24, NC)

—Arkansas received a big boost after four-straight wins, including a home victory over Ole Miss which provided a serious bump in the RPI.

—Vanderbilt took the lead on offense, mainly due to a 47-point outing by Tennessee at LSU.

—A comment was very accurate last week in regarding the top “tier” of teams as NCAA teams, and the second “tier” as NIT teams. However, it’s becoming a bit more muddled,  now with Kentucky struggling to break into the top tier and make it seven. I seriously doubt the SEC would receive seven bids, which would be begging to leave someone out. With Kentucky’s poor record, it would be the Wildcats at this choice.

Pomeroy Ratings Week Fourteen prediction…

East

1. [#14] Tennessee (27-4, 14-2)
2. [#34] Florida (23-8, 10-6)
2. [#48] Kentucky (16-13, 10-6)
4. [#70] Vanderbilt (23-8, 8-
5. [#67] South Carolina (15-15, 7-9)
6. [#97] Georgia (14-15, 5-11)

West

1. [#30] Mississippi State (21-9, 12-4)
2. [#31] Arkansas (22-8, 11-5)
3. [#40] Ole Miss (22-8, 8-
4. [#82] Alabama (16-15, 5-11)
5. [#141] Auburn (13-16, 3-13)
5. [#130] LSU (10-20, 3-13)

SEC Overall Title: Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Saturday games…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 13-5

(11-9, 5-2) Kentucky [62] vs. (13-10, 2-6) Alabama [52]: In a matchup of similar styles, the Crimson Tide simply couldn’t find any points against Kentucky’s defense, shooting just 37.3% from the field and being outrebounded by six. Ramel Bradley led the Wildcats, as he’s been playing very well lately, with 19 points on 3-of-6 shooting from long range but 4 turnovers to go along with it. Patterson had a decent game in the absence of Hendrix due to a sickness, shooting 5-of-11 from the field for 12 points and grabbing seven rebounds. Yamene Coleman stepped up in Hendrix’s place and played well, hitting 5-of-7 shots but his rebounding is poor, as he only claimed 2. Riley - who has also been hot lately - brought down 19 to lead the Tide along with 4 rebounds, but also 4 turnovers. Gee had a miserable night, hitting only 1 shot out of 9 attempted and 3 rebounds.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are trying to become the ultimate underdog to the NCAA’s. It’s still very unlikely, but it’s theoretically possible. The ‘Cats can’t afford a single injury or a single loss to a “lesser” team, period.
Impact [Alabama]: As only the NIT’s are in sight for the Tide, a 5-3 mark or a 4-4 with a win in the SEC tournament will be necessary for post-season play.
Stat of the Game: Both teams’ combined 2:3 assist-to-turnover ratio

(17-5, 6-2) Arkansas [75] vs. (16-5, 3-5) Ole Miss [69]: This game was close until the Razorbacks began to pull away late in the second half, and then the Rebels mounted a small comeback but it would not be enough. The Rebels are now joining Vanderbilt as the most overrated teams in the country headed into conference play, and the Razorbacks managed to keep their dreams for the Western Division title alive. Despite being outshot heavily, the ‘Backs managed to outrebound the Rebs and force enough turnovers to stay on top. Weems, who’s scored more than 20 4 out of the last 6 games, led the Razorbacks with 22 points and actually grabbed 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. The ‘Backs were one of two SEC teams with two double-doubles in the same game, as Beverly put up 17 points and an impressive 13 rebounds. He’s a shot guard - that still blows my mind. Anyways…Warren led all scorers on the game with a career-high 26 points on 9-of-15 shooting (including a blazing 6-of-8 from behind the arc) and Curtis recorded his seventh double-double in the last eight games with 12 points and a game-high 14 rebounds.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win was a big one to get out of the way for the ‘Backs, but their next two-game stretch could define the West. The ‘Backs will face league-leading Tennessee at home before heading to Starkville to take o