Wednesday games, Saturday odds…

Overall: 118-24 (83.1%)
Vs. Spread: 52-39 (57.1%)
Overall (SEC): 25-6 (80.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 19-12 (61.3%)
East vs. West: East, 8-4

(10-10, 2-4) South Carolina [62] vs. (11-7, 2-3) Georgia [56]: Although South Carolina failed the “keys” test by hitting only 23.5% of thier long balls, the Gamecocks took care of the ball and played enough defense to defeat the Bulldogs at home. Fredrick took nearly double the shots of any other USC squad member, hitting 8-of-17 for 23 points to go along with 6 rebounds. Archie neared a double-double with 13 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey distributed 5 assists to only 1 turnover. Georgia featured pretty balanced and well-rounded scoring, led by Woodbury’s 15 points and 9 rebounds along with Bliss’ 12 points and 8 rebounds. Gaines suffered a strangely unproductive night, bringing home only 7 points on 2-of-8 shooting and 7 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: These are desperate times for both of these teams. Deafeating a weak Georgia team at home will mean little in the grand scheme of things, as a 7-3 mark and a win in the SEC Tournament will be needed for any post-season play.
Impact [Georgia]: Almost ditto. If the Bulldogs can’t win on the road against the only other argument for the East’s weakest team, wins will be hard to come by for the remainder of the season.
Stat of the Game: South Carolina attempting 9 more free throws (16-7)

(16-3, 3-3) #19 Ole Miss [74] vs. (17-4, 2-4) #23 Vanderbilt [58]: My first impression is shock that this wasn’t more of a 90-70 game, as the high tempo seemed to rattle both teams’ offense. The talent of Ole Miss, however, will rarely lose at home and the Commodores haven’t been producing on the road. The Rebels were led by Chris Warren’s 20 points and 5 rebounds along with Polynice’s 18 points on 8-of-13 shooting and 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Williams also notched his fifth double-double of the season with 10 points and rebounds apiece as Curtis had an uncharacteristic off-night, shooting only 1-of-6 from the floor. Foster recorded the second-straight disappointing outing in this game, following a 7-point outing at Florida with a 5-of-13 14-point performance at Ole Miss. Ogilvy continues to struggle in SEC play (as I suspected he would), claiming 10 points and 4 rebounds for the ‘Dores.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The big win will keep the Rebels from falling off of the national map completely, but half of the SEC season is nearly over and the team has a 2-game trail behind MSU in the West. The difference will come down to road games, where the Rebels have not been performing.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It seems as if Vanderbilt “is this year’s Clemson”, as they say, but it is easy to forget that the Commodores were on the receiving end of a royal boot in the backside by the SEC. After 6 road games in an 8-game span, the ‘Dores will need to win at least 1 or 2 and hold serve at home to put themselves back in the NCAA at-large discussion.
Stat of the Game: The SEC’s #1 offense in Vanderbilt shooting just 34.9% from the field

(12-7, 2-4) Auburn [80] vs. (8-12, 1-5) LSU [81]: The Bayou Bengals proved they have some bite left in them and actually won a road game. This was a tremendous upset if you take into account that LSU has been defeated by an average of 12.4 points per game in the SEC thus far, including a 7-point loss to Auburn at home along with the fact that Auburn was one game out of the Western Division title last season. Auburn’s lack of size simply had no options to guard Marchus Thornton or Anthony Randolph, and Brady took full advantage of it. Thornton easily recorded the biggest night of his young career as he brought home 38 points (more than any other SEC player in any game so far this season) on 14-of-23 shooting and Randolph added 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting. The rest of the LSU team combined for 22 points. Five Auburn players scored in double-figures in the loss, with Prowell pulling down a season-high 26 points on 9-of-12 shooting along with 7 rebounds and Tolbert/Reed/Barrett/Hargrove scoring between 11 and 15 each.
Impact [Auburn]: With the West seemingly less muddled than last year, this will almost certainly finalize the Tigers’ lack of competency in the division. Finish at or above .500 in the remaining 10 games, and Auburn might have an argument for the NIT.
Impact [LSU]: Although the team’s fate in the West has been sealed, the win will be one of few arguments LSU will have if in the discussion for an NIT bid (although that’s nearly impossible at this point).
Stat of the Game: Thornton/Randolph combining for 72.8% of LSU’s points

(15-5, 4-2) Arkansas [78] vs. (14-6, 5-1) Mississippi State [58]: I’m beginning to be all too accurate at predicting “hangovers”. After their 20-point victory at home over then 15th-ranked Ole Miss, State showed up to this one unfocused and unmotivated, turning the ball over 22 times. Weems had another big night from long range for the Razorbacks, shoting 5-of-10 from behind the arc for 22 points, and Beverly shot poorly – again – but still managed 19 points and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the season (and second in a row). Despite the 20-point win, Arkansas only shot 36.1% from the floor and let MSU shoot 40.8%. Gordon brought down 24 points for the third time in four games for State, shooting 8-of-16 but turning the ball over 6 times. Charles Rhodes claimed his eleventh-career double-double with 11 points and 15 rebounds.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win was more prevention than advantage, as the ‘Backs avoided falling three games back to MSU in the West and remain squarely in the division’s grasp, just one game back and 10 games to go.
Impact [Miss. State]: An expected loss, the result of this game will mean little long-term. However, will MSU’s biggest defeat of the season be a morale-crusher or motivator? We’ll soon see Saturday in State’s home game versus #6 Tennessee.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ +11 turnover margin

Saturday Odds

(11-7, 2-3) Georgia [#114] vs. (9-9, 3-2) Kentucky [#138]
Spread: Georgia by 1.5
Pick: Georgia – Georgia beat Arkansas by 13 at home, and Arkansas is clearly a better team than the Wildcats at this point.
—Keys: Look for this to be a low-scoring game. Whoever between Ramel Bradley and Sundiata Gaines can hit 20 should carry their team to the “W”.

(12-9, 1-5) Alabama [#100] vs. (8-12, 1-5) LSU [#189]
Spread: Alabama by 9.5
Pick: Alabama – LSU’s winning “streak” will be a short one, as the Tide’s talent and size will be far too much for LSU.
—Keys: Thornton and Randolph. Those two should be double-teamed every time they touch the ball, because they’re LSU’s only offense.

(15-5, 4-2) Arkansas [#41] vs. (18-3, 5-1) Florida [#43]
Spread: Arkansas by 4
Pick: Arkansas – As talented as Florida may be, they do not play enough defense to keep a road game like this close.
—Keys: If Arkansas can find their offense against Florida’s porous defense, this could be a blowout.

(17-4, 2-4) #23 Vanderbilt [#13] vs. (12-7, 2-4) Auburn [#150]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 11.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – Auburn has noone to guard Foster or Ogilvy. This one will be ugly.
—Keys: Auburn will need to shoot well over 50% if they hope to pull this one out.

(16-3, 3-3) #19 Ole Miss [#11] vs. (10-10, 2-4) South Carolina [#125]
Spread: Ole Miss by 10.5
Pick: Ole Miss – The Rebels have been playing well at home.
—Keys: This has the potential to be a very high-scoring game, with Ole Miss’ high tempo and USC’s three-point shooting.

(14-6, 5-1) Mississippi State [#56] vs. (18-2, 5-1) #7 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Even
Pick: Tennessee – The matchup seems to favor the Vols.
—Keys: The Vols’ high-pressure trap defense should force a lot of MSU turnovers. If the officials are calling a loose game, that would exagerate State’s problem. This is an interesting matchup of offense vs. defense.