ESPN Bracket Caster NCAA Tournament predictions…

ESPN has featured on its front page an Insider-provided element called the “Bracket Caster“, where you can see each team’s percentage shot of defeating any given team, and predicts the playout of the tournament. This very interesting simulation program takes lots of seemingly “intangibles”, including performances against similar teams, coaches’ records in similar situations in past NCAA Tournaments, teams’ experience, etc. Seems logical enough.

Here are the perecentages for first-round SEC games…

Arkansas over Indiana: 39%

Tennessee over American: 88%

Vanderbilt over Siena: 64%

Mississippi State over Oregon: 53%

Kentucky over Marquette: 30%

Georgia over Xavier: 25%

—With those posted, this is the predicted results for each team, with five simluations for each. The bracketed percentage is the chance that the SEC team would win the game.

When listing best possible scenarios, I chose a 25% chance of winning for the minimum requirement across the board. However, if that team wins with less than a 30% chance, their minimum required percentage chance of winning any game in the future was increased by 5% from that point up to 50% to eliminate any statistical improbabilities.

Tennessee

1. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Loses to (7) Butler [60%] 67-63 in second round.

2. Loses to (15) American [88%] 80-76 in first round.

3. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Defeats (10) South Alabama [73%] 72-64 in second round. Defeats (3) Louisville [53%] 69-66 in Sweet Sixteen. Loses to (4) Washington State [56%] 67-64 in Elite Eight.

4. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Defeats (7) Butler [60%] 67-62 in second round. Loses to (11) St. Joseph’s [78%] 72-68 in Sweet Sixteen.

5. Loses to (15) American [88%] 80-76 in first round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (15) American [88%] in first round, defeat (10) South Alabama [73%] in second round, defeat (11) St. Joseph’s [78%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat (4) Washington State [56%] in Elite Eight, defeat (1) Kansas [40%] in Final Four, defeat (1) UCLA [40%] in National Championship game.

Arkansas

1. Defeats ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.

2. Loses to ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round.

3. Defeats ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.

4. Defeats ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.

5. Loses to ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round, lose to (1) North Carolina [21%] in second round.

Vanderbilt

1. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.

2. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Defeats (12) Villanova [64%] 70-64 in second round. Defeats (1) Kansas [29%] 72-68 in Sweet Sixteen. Loses to (3) Wisconsin [40%] 66-62 in Elite Eight.

3. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.

4. Loses to (13) Siena [63%] 80-78 in first round.

5. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round.Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (13) Siena [63%] in first round, defeat (12) Villanova [64%] in second round, defeat (1) Kansas [30%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat () Kansas State [58%] in Elite Eight, defeat (4) Washington State [47%] in Final Four, defeat (1) UCLA [29%] in National Championship game.

Mississippi State

1. Loses to (9) Oregon [53%] 72-70 in first round.

2. Loses to (9) Oregon [53%] 72-70 in first round.

3. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.

4. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.

5. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (9) Oregon [53%] in first round, defeat (1) Memphis [27%] in second round, defeat (12) Temple [58%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat (11) Kentucky [59%] in Elite Eight, lose to (1) UCLA [23%] in Final Four.

Kentucky

1. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.

2. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.

3. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.

4. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.

5. Defeats (6) Marquette [30%] 70-65 in first round. Defeats (3) Stanford [31%] 67-66 in second round. Loses to (10) St. Mary’s-California [42%] 66-62 in Sweet Sixteen.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (6) Marquette [30%] in first round, defeat (3) Stanford [31%] in second round, defeat (10) St. Mary’s-California [42%] in Sweet Sixteen, Defeat (12) Temple [49%] in Elite Eight, Lose to (1) UCLA [13%] in Final Four.

Georgia

1. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

2. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

3. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

4. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

5. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (3) Xavier [25%] in first round, defeat (11) Baylor [50%] in second round, defeat (7) West Virginia [34%] in Sweet Sixteen, lose to (1) UCLA [12%] in Elite Eight.

Post-Selection Show update…

At this point, all are very familiar with the happenings of the SEC Tournament, so here is a breif recap…

Despite a #6 seed from either division never having reached the SEC Tournament finals, Georgia - the 6th seed in the East - took down the Wildcats of Kentucky in overtime and then was forced to play Mississippi State later the same day. UGA simply out-toughed the Bulldogs from the West, outrebounding them by 13 and winning by 4. Georgia then met Arkansas in the Tournament final for a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament, and won the game.

Here are the seedings (both NCAA and NIT) for all postseason teams. No SEC teams received bids to the College Basketball Invitational.

NCAA

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) American: Friday, Mar. 21st @ 11:15AM CT in Birmingham, AL

(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Siena: Friday, Mar. 21st @ 6:20PM CT in Tampa, FL

( Mississippi State vs. (9) Oregon: Friday, Mar. 21st @ 6:25PM CT in Little Rock, AR 

(9) Arkansas vs. ( Indiana: Friday, Mar. 21st @ 30min after UNC/Play-in game ends in Raleigh, NC

(11) Kentucky vs. (6) Marquette: Thursday, Mar. 20th @ 1:30PM CT in Anaheim, CA

(14) Georgia vs. (3) Xavier: Thursday, Mar. 20th @ 11:20AM CT in Washington D.C.

NIT

(2) Ole Miss vs. (7) UC-Santa Barbara: Wednesday, Mar. 19th @ 7PM CT in Oxford, MS

(2) Florida vs. (7) San Diego State: Wednesday, Mar. 19th @ 8PM CT in Gainesville, FL

—I was going to post a detailed breakdown of each game, but simply don’t have the time. Apologies to the faithful readers!

Round Two games…

Overall: 142-41 (77.6%)
Vs. Spread: 65-66 (49.6%)
Overall (SEC): 49-23 (68.1%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 32-39 (45.1%)
East vs. West: East, 25-11

In what was easily the most bizarre and memorable SEC Tournament quarterfinal round, an confirmed F2 tornado struck the Georgia Dome as Mississippi State held a small lead on Alabama in a hotly-contested overtime match. With about 2:30 on the clock, an enormous rumbling sound was heard as massive beams and catwalks began swaying violently. Soon, rips opened in the roof and holes were punched in the walls as the teams and their coaches were escorted off the court while crowds rushed away from the outside walls and towards the bottom of the building. When all was said and done, tons of debris had filtered onto the floor, and it took 64 minutes to get play back underway.

As a result of the structural damage to the building and the threat of further severe weather, the following Kentucky/Georgia matchup was postponed until Saturday. Because of the delay, Georgia and Kentucky will play at 11AM CT and the winner of that game will be forced to turn around and play Mississippi State at 6:30PM. As neither team is particularly deep, this certainly heavily favors MSU.

In addition, the location has been moved to the campus of Georgia Tech, which holds a maximum of approximately 40% of the Georgia Dome. As a result, no fans are being allowed inside, just players, coaches, cheerleaders, and bands. This is a disadvantage particularly to Kentucky, as I’ve heard as many as 20,000+ had made the trip for the SEC Tournament.

With all of that said, here are recaps of yesterday’s games.

(29-3, 15-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (14-18, 6-12) South Carolina [87]: Chris Lofton, who had shot just 1-of-9 from three-point, finished 2-of-10. That second made trey was the difference in the game, as he hit the shot with barely seconds left on the clock. This was a beautiful game offensively, as both teams executed magnificently to put points on the board. With that said, defense was equally as lacking in the game. Wayne Chism proved to be the difference-maker in the game for the Vols, scoring on 9-of-13 shots for 23 points and grabbing 7 boards, and even making 2-of-3 three-pointers. JuJuan Smith added 19 points and 5 rebounds, while Lofton finished with just 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting, despite hitting the game-winner. Downey and Fredrick carried the Gamecocks offensively, combining for 50 points while both took an unprecedented 20 shots from the floor. Downey hit 10 while Fredrick hit 8, while the ever-present Downey also put in 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals. Holmes played very well yet again, scoring 15 points and 11 rebounds for his 4th double-double in the past 7 games.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols continue their march forward, needing a win over Arkansas to secure a top-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: This loss, although it was a hard-fought one against a national-title contender, ends the year for the Gamecocks and Dave Odom’s coaching career.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 27 assists to USC’s 13

(21-10, 10-7) Arkansas [81] vs. (26-7, 11-7) #18 Vanderbilt [75]: The Razorbacks simply came out more focused and played with more effort in this game, and outrebounded the Commodores by what was one of the biggest rebounding margins in the SEC this year. As a result, the ‘Backs were afforded 18 more attempts from the floor. Arkansas didn’t shoot well, but three-pointers - Vanderbilt’s keystone - wouldn’t fall for the ‘Dores and Arkansas won a relatively easy decision in comparison to the other SEC games. Gary Ervin tied a team-high with 18 points on a nice 5-of-7 shooting performance and 7-of-7 from the charity stripe. Darian Townes also contributed 18 points, his on 8-of-13 shooting, and claimed 7 rebounds. Patrick Beverly continued to struggle with his shot, hitting just 3-of-11 shots while Weems struggled even more, hitting just 1-of-9. Alex Gordon was the unusual scoring leader for Vanderbilt, leading all scorers in the game with 22 points on 5-of-10 shooting from behind the arc. Ogilvy played decently with 14 points and 7 rebounds, but the ever-reliable Foster shot just 4-of-10 and 2-of-7 from three.
Impact [Arkansas]: If there was any doubt that the Razorbacks were in the NCAA Tournament, with a #31 RPI and a win over the RPI’s #11 team, this game solidified those doubts. Not just that, but the ‘Backs might have moved into a 7 or 8 seed with a win over a ranked team, although the team is 5-5 over their last 10.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Vanderbilt’s NCAA fate was long since sealed up, but the ‘Dores did themselves no favors seeding-wise by dropping a game to a lower future NCAA seed. A 3 seed seemed possible, but not a 4 or 5 seems likely.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ tremendous 43-20 rebounding advantage

(22-9, 13-4) Mississippi State [69] vs. (17-16, 6-12) Alabama [67]: Mississippi State has become familiar with dramatic endings as of late, and this was no exception. Amidst a direct hit by a now-confirmed F2 tornado, the Bulldogs managed a heart-stopping 2-point win in overtime as a last-second Riley three bounced out of the rim. MSU jumped out to an early lead and looked to dominate the game, but Alabama soon shifted to a zone defense and took complete control. State’s rebounding and defense eventually won out, though this was an intensely exciting game. All-SEC First Teamer Jamont Gordon has scored 20+ points in three-straight games now with his 23 points in this one, hitting 7-of-18 shots, grabbing 9 boards, and handing out 4 assists but turning the ball over 5 times. Varnado, who leads the nation in blocked shots, swatted just 3 shots but pulled down his sixth double-double of the season with 10 points and 11 rebounds, while fellow All-SEC First Team selection Charles Rhodes scored 15 points and recorded 8 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times. Mykal Riley led the Tide in scoring with 18 points, but shot just 5-of-16 from the floor and 4-of-12 from three. Hendrix put his 17th double-double of the season on the stat sheet, with 15 points and a game-high 13 rebounds. Gee shot just 3-of-10 but managed 10 points.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are proving they can find ways to win. While seeding looks to be a 5 or 6 at the moment, a tournament final appearance or title win could bump that to a 4.
Impact [Alabama]: While the Tide only have 17 wins and are barely above .500 on the year, two wins over quality wins and a close loss to MSU make the team a distant threat for an at-large bid for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 31.8% shooting

SEC Tournament first-round games…

Overall: 142-41 (77.6%)
Vs. Spread: 65-66 (49.6%)
Overall (SEC): 49-23 (68.1%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 32-39 (45.1%)
East vs. West: East, 25-11

Took a beating yesterday…the percentages are falling pretty badly. With several SEC teams ending their season yesterday, on to the recaps…

(13-18, 6-11) LSU [73] vs. (14-17, 6-11) South Carolina [77]: The Gamecocks caught a bad case of streakiness, but still managed to hold off a late Tiger surge to end LSU’s season. Depth was amazingly vacant for both squads, but balanced scoring for USC’s scorers and unbelievable ball-handling by everyone - but Downey in particular - proved the difference in the game. Downey finished with a career-high-tying 11 assists and 12 points for his second double-double of the season, but didn’t shoot well (4-of-13 for 30.8%). Holmes has continued his late-season surge by tying for a team-high 16 points but didn’t rebound particularly well, with just 4. LSU’s pure talent was obvious, and if the team gathered some depth this would be a very dangerous team. Randolph shot 9-of-15 from the field for 22 points and grabbed 8 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times. Also turning the ball over 6 times was Chris Johnson, who finished with his 5th double-double of the season and his 4th in the last 6 games, with 13 points and 14 rebounds. Marcus Thornton didn’t shoot particularly well from three, hitting just 3-of-10 of his shots from that range, but finished with 17 points and 6 rebounds. Also of note, the SEC’s second-best blocking team swatted just one shot, and the Tigers turned the ball over 19 times.
Impact [LSU]: This obviously ends the Tigers’ season, but LSU has a lot of talent to work with next season.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks will have to win the conference tournament to make the postseason, regardless of the win.
Stat of the Game: USC’s +11 turnover margin

(26-6, 11-6) #18 Vanderbilt [93] vs. (14-16, 4-13) Auburn [82]: These two teams’ lack of defense was magnified by their playing of each other, as the Tigers shot 47.5% from the floor, scored 82 points, and still lost by 11. Vandy’s star players came out huge for this game, as Ogilvy and Foster combined for 53 points. Ogilvy missed just one shot out of 13 and claimed 5 rebounds, while Foster nailed 6-of-9 shots from behind the arc and grabbed 4 rebounds. Although Beal only managed 7 points, he also dished out 7 assists and didn’t turn the ball over. Auburn’s Dewayne Reed had a similar game, scoring just 8 points but handing out 9 assists and not turning the ball over. Barrett led the Tigers in scoring with 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting and Tolbert managed 17 points but shot just 4-of-13 from the field.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores didn’t necessarily increase their seeding with a win over a very weak Auburn team, the matchup against Arkansas could make more of a statement.
Impact [Auburn]: The loss means the end of Auburn’s season, as next season looks to be similar to this one.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 27 assists

(21-11, 8-9) Florida [69] vs. (17-15, 6-11) Alabama [80]: This was a significant upset, as Alabama’s defense was surprisingly stout and the Gators continued showing no intensity on the defensive end of the floor. Mykal Riley, the SEC’s second-best three-point shooter, hit an overwhelming 8-of-12 three-point shots to carry ‘Bama through the game with 26 points, while Hendrix shot 7-of-13 for 22 points and 8 rebounds. Florida could find no offense, as their leading scorer was Speights with just 15 points, and just one other Gators scored more than 10 points.
Impact [Florida]: Florida, with an RPI of 72 and a loss to a team that’s barely above .500 on the year, has effectively sealed itself off from NCAA Tournament consideration. Look for the Gators to surface as a top seed in the NIT.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are now just one win away from being considered for the NIT, but that road will go through Mississippi State, who swept them this season.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 41 rebounds to Florida’s 28

(21-10, 7-10) Ole Miss [95] vs. (14-16, 5-12) Georgia [97]: This was possibly a bigger upset than the Alabama/Florida game, as the Rebels were the three-seed in the West and Georgia was the worst SEC team record-wise. This one went to overtime and was as close as I figured it would be, but went to the Bulldogs as the team shot slightly better than the Rebs but took 11 less shots from the floor. Woodbury was the surprise scoring leader for UGA, hitting 9-of-12 shots for 25 points and 7 rebounds, while Gaines also pitched in 22 points and 5 rebounds, but shot just 5-of-14. Warren’s off-game could’ve cost his team the game, as he shot just 2-of-10 from the floor and just 1-of-6 from three to manage 8 points. Huertas tried to make up for it, shooting 7-of-11 from long-range to put up a season-high 29 points and 5 rebounds, while Curtis remained ever-reliable on the inside, scoring 26 points on 11-of-16 shooting and claiming 7 rebounds. Polynice also had a good game, handing out 9 assists to just 1 turnover.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels join the Gators in teams that likely played their way out of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, as now a top-seed in the NIT will be likely.
Impact [Georgia]: Even with the big win, the Bulldogs will still need to win the SEC Tournament to make the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 8 blocks

2008 SEC Postseason Awards

You can find the official coaches’ awards here. Here are the choices for the awards, including a look back the preseason choices.

Coach of the Year: Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt 

Stallings’ Commodore team was predicted to finish among the bottom of the Eastern Division after losing the SEC Player of the Year. Instead, the Commodores raced through the non-conference schedule without a loss including wins over South Alabama (#39), Massachutsetts (#41), and Georgia Tech (#74). After losing 4 of their next 5 games, the ‘Dores stormed back to win 8 of their next 9 to finish 3rd in the division and end the regular season with a national ranking of 18th. Shan Foster and freshman phenom AJ Ogilvy carried this team on the back of another excellent reloading year for Kevin Stallings.

Preseason selection: Billy Gillespie, Kentucky

Player of the Year: Shan Foster, Vanderbilt

Foster brings the second consecutive SEC Player of the Year award to Vanderbilt, as he has proven to be the most lethal scorer in the conference. Leading the SEC with 20.6 points per game, Foster is also the league’s most efficient guard, hitting 52.5% of his shots from the floor. He also leads the conference in 3-point shooting, a 47.2% mark from that range, by a huge margin - second place is 42.5%. Foster has scored less than 10 points just once and 20 points or more 18 times, while notching enormous numbers against talented opposition: 6-12 (20pts) at Kentucky, 8-10 (20pts) vs. Kentucky, 9-13 (32pts) vs. Tennessee, 8-12 (22pts) at Arkansas, and a cake-topping 42 points on 16-of-25 shooting (including 9-of-15 from behind the arc) versus Mississippi State - the nation’s second-best defense. Foster is an easy pick, as his reliability and leadership will be sorely missed next year for the Commodores.

Preseason selection: Jamont Gordon, Mississippi State

Freshman of the Year: Nick Calathes, Florida

This year’s SEC freshmen were a talented bunch, making this decision excessively difficult. However, leadership is an attribute we appreciate very much, as well as performance against the most talented opponents, and on those basis it seems evident that Calathes is most deserving of this award. The freshman led his young team in scoring by a big margin (15.9ppg) and ranked third among league freshman in that category, along with shooting 43.5% from the floor. The story here, though, is his ability to lead his team on the floor, as he easily leads the entire league in assists per game with 6.10 (2nd is 5.20) and ranks 3rd in assist-to-turnover ratio. This is outstandingly impressive, as it normally takes years for players to learn how to effectively handle and share the ball. Calathes’ leadership was impressive from the beginning, and rarely faltered in conference play.

Sixth Man of the Year: Michael Holmes, South Carolina

Holmes has proven to be a reliable source off the bench of some much-needed inside presence for the Gamecocks, especially as of late. Holmes has recorded at least 10 points in 6 of his last 7 games, including 18 points at Auburn and 16 points vs. Kentucky. As his minutes have increased, so has his production - a feature lacking for most freshmen.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jarvis Varnado, Mississippi State

This was the easiest choice yet, as Varnado has simply dominated inside the paint for the Bulldogs. Leading the nation in blocks per game, and having done so for quite some time, Varnado is less than 15 blocks shy of the Southeastern Conference’s all-time blocking record and has long-since destroyed State’s record for shots swatted. Rebounding is a strength for the long-armed player also, as Varnado ranks 5th in the conference with 7.9 rebounds per outing. Moreso, Varnado alters a good deal more shots than he directly gets a hand on and his presence alone forces a number of missed layups. With this said, Varnado is just a sophomore and has two years of eligibility remaining. Scary.

All-SEC: First Team

Shan Foster (Senior - Vanderbilt, 20.6ppg, 4.9rpg, 52.5% FG, 47.2% 3PT)

Foster has been the single most reliable offensive threat in the conference. 42-point performance against Mississippi State sealed up his claim to the award. Leads the league in scoring and three-point shooting, and leads all guards in field-goal percentage.

Jamont Gordon (Junior - Mississippi State, 17.5ppg, 6.3rpg, 4.8apg, 42.8% FG)

Gordon is possibly the scariest player in the SEC, as he is practically impossible to defend. Finishes as the SEC Player of the Year runner-up, as inconsistent shooting proved his downfall. Gordon is a talented ball-sharer, but turns the ball over too much. Ranks 5th in scoring, 14th in rebounding, 2nd in assists, and 15th in field-goal percentage.

Richard Hendrix (Junior - Alabama, 17.7ppg, 10.1rpg, 2.0bpg, 60.2% FG)

It remains my opinion that Richard Hendrix is easily the most talented post-man in the conference, if not the nation. Hendrix is relied upon heavily to carry Alabama inside, and he excels at it. He stands as the only SEC player to average a double-double. Ranks 4th in the conference in scoring, 1st in rebounding, 5th in blocking, and 3rd in field-goal percentage.

Dwayne Curtis (Ole Miss - Senior, 14.7ppg, 9.3rpg, 64.6% FG, 68.5% FT)

Curtis is one of the more overlooked players in the conference, but one of the most reliable. Curtis, similar to Hendrix, has had to carry his team’s post play, and has done so well as the Rebels rank among the top SEC rebounding teams. Curtis ranks 17th in scoring, 2nd in rebounding, leads the league in field-goal percentage shooting, and places among the league’s 5-best free-throw shooting big-men.

Charles Rhodes (Mississippi State - Senior, 16.8ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.3bpg, 56.0% FG)

Rhodes has finished his Maroon and White career with a bang, scoring 20 or more points in 5 of his last 7 games, including a career-high 30 against Auburn. Rhodes can be dominant offensively and shoots particularly well with his face to the basket - rare among post players. Rhodes ranks 7th in the SEC in scoring, 6th in rebounding, 10th in blocking, and 6th in field-goal percentage.

All-SEC: Second Team

Tyler Smith (Tennessee - Sophomore, 13.3ppg, 6.8rpg, 3.5apg, 70.5% FT)

Smith is a unique post player, as he shares the ball very well and ranks atop the league’s big-men in that category. His offensive game is competitive but could improve, but his rebounding has been excellent. Another interesting element to Smith is his mark from the charity stripe, which ranks among the SEC’s top 5 big-men. He ranks 25th in scoring, 10th in rebounding, and 12th in assists.

Marcus Thornton (LSU, 19.7ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.3spg, 43.6% FG, 38.0% 3PT, 81.4% FT)

Thornton’s reliability in the scoring column is nearly unmatched in the SEC. Thornton has an eye for the basket and is unafraid to shoot, with tremendous potential for his senior year. Thornton ranks 2nd in the league in scoring, 21st in rebounding, 14th in field-goal percentage, 7th in three-point percentage, and 3rd in free-throw percentage.

Devan Downey (South Carolina - Sophomore, 18.3ppg, 3.0rpg, 5.2apg, 42.3% FG, 75.2% FT)

Although Downey lost his claim to first-team honors by scoring less than 10 points in 3 of his last 4 games, he has been an amazingly accurate shooter and a constant threat to drive the lane. His speed is also outstanding, rivaled in the conference by only Ole Miss’ Warren. His ability to share the ball is overlooked often, as he ranks 4th in the SEC in assist-to-turnover ratio. Downey ranks 3rd in the conference in scoring, 2nd in assists, and 7th in free-throw percentage.

Chris Lofton (Tennessee - Senior, 16.0ppg, 3.2rpg, 41.2% FG, 40.0% 3PT, 84.2% FT)

A pre-season All-America selection, Lofton lost his stroke from the floor this season. Although occasionally catching fire from the floor, his streaks were inconsistent and would only last a few games. With that said, Lofton is still a dangerous shooter that every team must plan for. Lofton ranks 10th in the conference in scoring, 5th in three-point percentage, and 1st in free-throw percentage.

Joe Crawford (Kentucky - Senior, 17.1ppg, 3.5rpg, 2.2apg, 46.4% FG, 78.3% FT)

Crawford has been a much-needed source of reliable scoring for the Wildcats, leading the team in both attempts taken and points scored. The squad will certainly miss his athleticism and leadership after he graduates this year. Crawford ranks 6th in the SEC in scoring, 2nd among the SEC’s guards in field-goal percentage, and 5th in free-throw percentage.

All-SEC Freshman Team

Nick Calathes (Florida, 15.9ppg, 5.0rpg, 6.1apg, 43.5% FG, 72.8% FT)

Has shown tremendous leadership in his first year of play. He ranks 12th in the league in scoring (3rd among freshmen), 30th in rebounding, 1st in assists, and 10th in free-throw percentage.

Patrick Patterson (Kentucky, 16.4ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.2bpg, 57.4% FG, 73.1% FT)

Patterson narrowly missed Freshmen of the Year honors, as he suffered a fractured bone in his foot late in the season, effectively eliminating his chances at the claim. Regardless, Patterson has arguably been Kentucky’s most reliable scoring threat and has dominated offensively around the rim. Patterson ranks 9th in the SEC in scoring (2nd among freshmen), 7th in rebounding (2nd), 12th in blocking (4th), 5th in field-goal percentage (2nd) and 9th in free-throw percentage (2nd).

AJ Ogilvy (Vanderbilt, 16.7ppg, 6.8rpg, 1.4bpg, 58.2% FG, 78.4% FT)

Ogilvy is much like Patterson, as he also is talented from the charity stripe and is a significant threat offensively. Ogilvy has helped Vanderbilt to its national ranking by providing the inside presence the team seemed to lack in the off-season. Ogilvy ranks 8th in scoring in the SEC (1st among freshmen), 9th in rebounding (3rd), 8th in blocking (2nd), 4th in field-goal percentage (1st), and 4th in free-throw percentage (1st).

Chris Warren (Ole Miss, 15.7ppg, 2.1rpg, 4.5apg, 39.6% FG, 38.3% 3PT, 77.3% FT)

Warren is perhaps the quickest player in the SEC and an exceptional ball-handler. A great leader on the court, his shooting has been a tiny bit inconsistent. Warren ranks 13th in the SEC in scoring (4th among freshmen), 5th in assists (2nd), and 6th in three-point percentage (1st).

Anthony Randolph (LSU, 15.4ppg, 8.5rpg, 2.3bpg)

Randolph has proven to be an exceptional inside-man defensively, but has work to do offensively, shooting just 45.9% from the field. With that said, Randolph is one of the best shot-blockers in the conference and rebounds outstandingly well. Randolph ranks 14th in the conference in scoring (5th among freshmen), 3rd in rebounding (1st), and 3rd in blocking (1st).

SEC Tournament First-Round odds…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

(13-17, 6-10) LSU [W4, #159] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [E5, #140]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU - The Tigers’ lanky inside men will be able to keep Downey shy from charging the lane, and LSU simply has more momentum at the moment.
—Keys: If fouls are called closely, the game may favor USC’s lane-driving. If not, LSU’s shot-blockers will have a field day unless the Gamecocks get hot from behind the arc.

(25-6, 10-6) #18 Vanderbilt [E3, #10] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [W6, #154]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 8.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - This is the easiest pick in some time, as the Tigers are seriously overmatched against the ‘Dores.
—Keys: The only thing that could keep this game close is Vandy’s tendency to play poorly on the road while Auburn has a good amount of experience on their squad.

(21-10, 8- Florida [E4, #65] vs. (16-15, 5-11) Alabama [W5, #118]
Spread: Florida by 3
Pick: Florida - Alabama’s utter lack of defense will cost them this game, as the Gators are one of the most offensively-efficient teams in the conference.
—Keys: Hendrix should gain the advantage inside against Speights, but the Florida guards are much better shooters and should have a field day in this game.

(21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [W3, #44] vs. (13-16, 4-12) Georgia [E6, #152]
Spread: Ole Miss by 4.5
Pick: Ole Miss - Although this should be an entertainingly close game, the Rebels’ offensive execution should win out.
—Keys: Ole Miss’ youth could prove fatal in a high-pressure situation against a pretty solid defense in Georgia. The production of the Rebels’ freshmen will be vital to their victory.

LSU contacts Southern Cal’s Tim Floyd…

According to Fox Sports, USC’s Tim Floyd was contacted about the vacancy in Baton Rouge. Floyd has already said he wasn’t interested in LSU and that he would coach at Southern Cal the rest of his career.

Floyd certainly wouldn’t be a shabby pickup, as he’s done well to make USC competitive in a competitive league. However, my gut says this isn’t going to happen.

SEC Tournament Break-Down

Now that the seeds are set and the Southeastern Conference’s 49th all-time league tournament is set to begin this Thursday, March 13th, here is a breakdown of each matchup, predictions for their outcomes, and the times they will be playing. The number following the “#” is that squad’s seeding in their division, and the numeral in brackets is the team’s RPI, per www.kenpom.com.

All SEC Tournament games except for the Final Round will be televised by Raycom Sports, and the Final Round will be televised nationally by CBS.

1st Round

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #5: 13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [#139] vs. (West #4: 13-17, 6-10) LSU [#159]

Offense: Advantage - South Carolina: The Gamecocks don’t shoot particularly well overall, but put up a ton of shots by forcing turnovers. USC is also lethal from three, where they rank third in the conference at 36.7% as a team. The Tigers rank near the bottom of the conference in points per game and field-goal percentage.

Defense: Advantage - LSU: The Tigers’ defense has been above average all year, built around the blocking prowess of both Johnson and Randolph. LSU ranks second in the conference in blocks per game and fourth in field-goal percentage defense, but tend to allow a lot of opponent attempts by turning the ball over and missing offensive rebounding opportunities.

Playmakers: Advantage - LSU: Both teams are short on depth, but the Tigers seem to be more talented overall with All-SEC Freshman candidate Anthony Randolph inside who ranks 3rd in the conference in both rebounding and blocks. Marcus Thornton recently put up 38 points on Mississippi State and has proven to be a lethal all-around scorer, ranking 2nd in the conference in scoring with 19.7 points per game and in the top 15 with a 43.6% field goal percentage. Chris Johnson has proven to be formidable inside as well, ranking 2nd in blocking. The main playmaker for USC is without a doubt Rivals.com First-Team All-SEC Devan Downey, who’s quickness and talented ball-handling is hard to keep from driving the basket. Downey ranks 2nd in the conference in scoring, but doesn’t take the best-advaised shots as he doesn’t rank in the top 15 field-goal percentages. Downey also takes care of the ball well, handing out 5.2 assists to just 2.8 turnovers, ranking 4th in that category.

Depth: Advantage - South Carolina: Although neither team is particularly strong in this area, USC regularly rotates 8 men and has 2 more backups while the Tigers rotate 8 men but have just 1 more usable backup.

Intangibles: Advantage - LSU: Both teams have some things going for them. While Dave Odom will be coaching in his final SEC Tournament that has seen Odom receive his fair share of success, the Tigers have lifted the Brady “weight” off of their shoulders and have been playing inspired basketball, winning 4 of their last 5. Butch Pierre has done a great job at reorganizing the Tigers’ rotation off the bench and creating more offense.

Bottom Line: This will be a game dominated by two or three players with a load of role-players mixed in. The outcome will likely be dictated by USC’s Holmes and LSU’s Randolph inside and USC’s Downey and LSU’s Thornton from the outside. Whichever team can keep the other’s main scorer out of the paint will win the game, although the Tigers will need to keep a handle on their turnovers also.

Prediction: LSU wins, 70-64: The Tigers’ Randolph will prove to be the difference-maker, scoring almost at will inside the paint while Downey will still manage to put up more than 20 points. A close game favors LSU, who leads the conference in free-throw shooting percentage.

3:15 PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #6: 14-15, 4-12) Auburn [#154] vs. (East #3: 25-6, 10-6) Vanderbilt [#10]

Offense: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores are one of the most potent offenses in the conference, averaging 80.4 points per game and leading the conference in three-point percentage at 40.2%. The Tigers rank near the bottom in almost every offensive category.

Defense: Advantage - Vanderbilt: Neither team is known for their defense, but the Tigers have been horrid. Auburn’s field-goal percentage defense is nearly 3% worse than any other SEC team’s, although Vanderbilt’s scoring defense is slightly worse.

Playmakers: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores have the likely SEC Player of the Year in Shan Foster and SEC Freshman of the Year candidate AJ Ogilvy. Foster leads the conference in scoring with 20.6 points per game and 9th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Ogilvy has proven to be a threat offensively as well, leading SEC freshman with 16.7 points per game and 3rd among SEC freshman with 6.8 rebounds per game. Auburn’s Quantez Robertson is one of the most underrated point guards, handing out 4.2 assists to just 1.8 turnovers per game, ranking 2nd in the conference in that category.

Depth: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores have recruited well, and it shows. The ‘Dores regularly rotate 10 men into play, with 1 more off the bench while Auburn rotates 8 with 1 off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores are currently ranked 17th in the nation and are a popular pick for the Sweet 16. Morale is low in Auburn, as the Tigers haven’t seen the postseason in quite some time.

Bottom Line: This game will be full of offense, as neither team plays much defense. An offensive game easily favors Vanderbilt, as the Commodores have been scoring nearly at will all season long. With Auburn’s severe lack of talent and depth, this game could get ugly.

Prediction: Vanderbilt wins, 94-75: At least 9 or 10 players will get on the scoreboard for Vanderbilt, as this game becomes a route early on. Because of a lesser need for him, Foster doesn’t have a remarkable game, scoring around 15 points.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #5: 16-15, 5-11) Alabama [#117] vs. (East #4: 21-10, 8- Florida [#65]

Offense: Advantage - Florida: The Gators are loaded with offensively-talented freshman, ranking 4th in the conference in scoring average and lead the conference in field-goal percentage. The Tide rank near the middle of the conference in all offensive categories.

Defense: Advantage - Alabama: These two teams are possibly the worst defensive teams in the conference, but the Tide have a slight edge in percentages and a sizeable lead in blocks/steals per game. Richard Hendrix probably gives this advantage to Alabama on his own.

Playmakers: Advantage - Alabama: Richard Hendrix, as you all know by now, is possibly my favorite SEC player. He’s practically unstoppable under the rim, even against arguably the nation’s best defender in MSU’s Jarvis Varnado. Hendrix ranks 4th in the conference in scoring, 1st in rebounding (the only SEC player to average a double-double), 3rd in field-goal percentage, and 5th in blocking. Hendrix is a beast, and possibly the best all-around player in the conference. ‘Bama’s Riley is also underestimated, ranking 2nd in the conference in three-point shooting, while Gee is an unpredictable but dynamic play-maker. Florida has their share of talent as well, as freshman Nick Calathes easily leads the conference in assists per game with 6.1, and ranks 3rd in assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s a scoring point, though, leading his team in scoring with 15.9 points per game. Speights can also dominate a game inside, ranking 4th in rebounding and 2nd in field-goal percentage.

Depth: Advantage - Alabama: While both teams are relatively deep, Florida relies more on its talented youth while the Tide have some more experienced players and cycle more men into the game. 9 Bama players regularly see playing time with 2 usable backups, while 9 Gators see common playing time but none are usable off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage - Florida: The Gators will be playing for their NCAA lives and are coached by possibly the SEC’s best coach, while the Tide are struggling to even reach the NIT and have fell short of already-low expectations.

Bottom Line: This is yet another game that will see very little defense and be controlled by offense. Alabama simply won’t have the offense to keep up with the potent Gators, although Hendrix will likely have a huge game against Speights inside. The game will be close, but Alabam’s free throw shooting will cost them the game.

Prediction: Florida wins, 80-72: The game will come down to the final minute, as Alabama will miss key free throws to hand Florida the game.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(East #6: 13-16, 4-12) Georgia [#152] vs. (West #3: 21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [#42]

Offense: Advantage - Ole Miss: The Bulldogs’ offense is the most anemic in the conference, scoring just 67.8 points per game. Conversely, the Rebels have proven to execute an efficient offense, ranking third in the conference in scoring, although the Rebs rank 9th in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Georgia - Both teams play decent defense, but the Bulldogs’ scoring defense gives them the edge, as they rank 4th in the conference with 67.2 points per outing. All of the remaining statistics are very similar.

Playmakers: Advantage - Ole Miss: Neither team is overloaded with talent, but the Rebels have a clear advantage with SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Chris Warren and vastly overlooked big-man Dwayne Curtis on the interior. Warren has tremendous speed but still has work to do on his decision-making skills, leading the team in scoring but shooting just 39.6% from the field and turning the ball over nearly 3 times a game. Curtis ranks 2nd in the conference with an impressive 9.3 rebounds per game and leads the SEC in field-goal percentage, shooting 64.6% on the season. For Georgia, Sundiata Gaines is the key to the team’s offense, putting up over 12 attempts per game, grabbing 6.3 rebounds per game, and ranking 6th in the conference with 4.2 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game. Gaines’ main drawback is free-throw shooting, as he hits just 57.3% of his shots from the charity stripe.

Depth: Advantage - Ole Miss: Both teams have some talent on the bench, but the Rebels have more, as both cycle in 10 men regularly with 1 legitimate backup.

Intangibles: Advantage - Ole Miss: The Rebels absolutely must win this game to reach the NCAA, and they know it. Felton has struggled with off-the-court issues, and the Rebels simply have more to play for.

Bottom Line: When it comes to crunch time, Georgia won’t have the offense to keep up with the Rebels. Curtis should have a monster game, scoring 15-20+ points and 10+ rebounds, as Bliss is not necessarily a threat defensively.

Prediction: Ole Miss wins, 76-67: This game shouldn’t be as close as the score looks, as the Rebels should take control in the second half as the Bulldogs lose any offensive momentum they may have created in the first.

2nd Round

Since the second round depends on who wins in the first, here is a breakdown of each squad who received a bye, both strengths and weaknesses.

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #1: 28-3, 14-2) Tennessee [#1] vs. (Winner of [E5] South Carolina vs. [W4] LSU)

Offense: The Vols have boasted a tremendously potent offense from the very beginning of the season, averaging a league-leading 82.5 points per game. Surprisingly, the Vols rank just 8th in field-goal perentage and 5th from behind the arc, but utilize great offensive rebounding (2nd) and turnover-forcing (1st) to attempt 236 more shots from the floor than their opponents. The squad also shares the ball remarkably well, averaging over 18 assists per game to lead the SEC in that category as well.

Defense: Although the common conception is that a great speed-based offense like Tennessee lacks on defense, this is very untrue for the Vols. The team’s scoring defense ranks a decent 6th, but the key is three-point defense as the team leads the conference quite comfortably in that category, with a 30.5% mark. Forced turnovers are the key to Tennessee’s high-intensity, high-pressure defense, which leads into easy buckets.

Playmakers: The Volunteers are very talented and well-balanced, as despite leading the league in scoring as a team no player averages more than 16 points per game. Chris Lofton, a preseason All-American selection, is that 16ppg scorer, although he manages those points on 11.9 attempts per game as opposed to percentages, as his shooting percentage from the floor doesn’t rank in the top 15 in the conference. Lofton does, however, lead the SEC in free-throw percentage shooting, hitting 84.2% of his attempts. Tyler Smith has claimed his mark as one of the best big-men in the conference, leading his team in rebounding and ranking 8th in the conference in shooting percentage. JuJuan Smith is extremely dynamic but sometimes out of control, though he shoots a respectable 45.2% from the floor. JuJuan also ranks 5th in the SEC in steals per game.

Depth: Tennessee is one of the deepest teams in the conference, with 11 players seeing consistent playing time and 1 other seeing some amount of time off the bench.

Intangibles: Everything is going right for one fo the nation’s top teams, with two or three potential All-SEC First Teamers and SEC Coach of the Year candidate. A Final Four seems a distcint possibility, as does bringing home the Southeastern Conference’s third-straight men’s basketball national title.

Prediction: The Vols have a great chance at winning the conference tournament and going on to an NCAA Tournament 1-seed.

3:15PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #2: 20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [#43] vs. (Winner of [W6] Auburn vs. [E3] Vanderbilt)

Offense: Arkansas is a defense-oriented team who likes to slow the ball down. The team’s scoring margin is mediocre at best, although the percentages are good as most of the team’s scoring comes from inside the paint. The team doesn’t share the ball exceptionally well, and does not shoot well from three as a whole.

Defense: The Razorbacks have been battling MSU for the top spot defensively all season, as the team is loaded with quality big-men. Arkansas ranks 3rd in scoring defense, field-goal percentage defense, and three-point defense as well as blocks per game.

Playmakers: Sonny Weems is the team’s shooting specialist, leading the squad in scoring with 14.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Reigning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly is the conference’s 3rd-most efficient three-point shooter at 40.1%, and Steven Hill ranks 4th in blocks per game. This team doesn’t have many stand-outs, as the effort is usually well-balanced.

Depth: Arkansas is also very deep, as 10 players see regular playing time but no others come off the bench.

Intangibles: The ‘Backs are another team looking to ensure their NCAA hopes, and a win against a very talented Vanderbilt team would do it. Arkansas has lost 5 of their last 8, however, and this will be Pelphrey’s first SEC Tournament. How will the seniors respond in their last SEC Tournament?

Prediction: The Razorbacks should be able to defeat the Commodores, as Vanderbilt hasn’t been able to hit their threes away from home. The ‘Backs would likely fall hard to the Volunteers, however.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #1: 21-9, 12-4) Mississippi State [#38] vs. (Winner of [W5] Alabama vs. [E4] Florida)

Offense: While MSU is widely known to be a very talented team defensively, the squad’s offensive presence has been lost in the shuffle. Although State’s scoring offense ranks just 6th, the team’s field-goal percentage ranks 3rd. The Bulldogs are not adept at three-point shooting, however, nor sharing the ball - ranking 9th and 8th in those categories, respectively. In SEC play, MSU leads the conference in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Well-known at this point, Mississippi State’s field-goal percentage defense ranks atop the SEC and 2nd in the country behind Georgetown, at 36.9%. Absolutely suffocating on defense, the team also ranks 2nd in three-point defense, 1st in scoring defense, and 1st in blocks per game (and also 2nd in the NCAA in that category, behind Connecticut). State’s length and athleticism makes every point scored against them difficult.

Playmakers: The Bulldogs have arguably the most talented starting 5 in the conference, with SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon leading the way. Charles Rhodes is a legitimate All-SEC First-Teamer, Jarvis Varnado leads the nation in blocks per game and is set to challenge Shaq’s all-time SEC blocks record as a sophomore, and both Stewart and Hansbrough are able to put up 20+ points on any given night. Gordon ranks 5th in the conference in scoring while Rhodes ranks 7th, while Varnado ranks 5th in rebounds and Rhodes ranks 6th. Rhodes is a very efficient shooter, even with face to the basket, ranking 6th in the conference in shooting percentage, while Gordon ranks 3rd in assists per game. Hansbrough also ranks in the top 10 in three-point percentage and 3-pointers made per game. This team is very well-balanced, with an offensive big-man, defensive big-man, penetrating guard, and two shooters.

Depth: The Bulldogs have lots of depth on the bench, with a regular rotation cycle of 10 players and 1 off the bench.

Intangibles: State has been on the brink of being ranked throughout the season, and have won 7 of their last 9. The ‘Dawgs seem to work well under the “underdog” mentality, and have the balance and depth to make a run in both postseason tournaments.

Prediction: State hasn’t lost a game to either of their potential second-round matchups, and have only dropped one game out of the total potential matchups in the semifinal round. State seems to be a good bet for the SEC Tournament finals, where a rematch with Tennessee should be an exciting game - although I’d pick the Vols to take that game, as UT won in Starkville in the teams’ previous matchup.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(West #2: 18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [#49] vs. (Winner of [E6] Georgia vs. [W3] Ole Miss)

Offense: Offense hasn’t been a specialty for the Wildcats, as the team ranks 10th in scoring offense for the season in the conference. The slow-paced offense shoots well, though, ranking 3rd in field-goal percentage and 2nd from behind the arc. The problem is rebounding, as the ‘Cats haven’t been able to take many shots from the floor and ranking last in turnover margin.

Defense: The Wildcat defense is a typical hard-nosed Kentucky defense, ranking 2nd in scoring defense allowed and field-goal percentage defense. What the team doesn’t do, however, is force turnovers very well, which when combined with poor ball-handling results in easy buckets for the opponent.

Playmakers: Three Wildcats score 16 points a game or more, although surprisingly only one of them has really captured the media’s attention. That player is SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson, who is no longer with the team after a fractured foot, and won’t be back until next season. Stevenson has handled the loss well, stepping up to record a couple of double-doubles in his absence. The other two top scorers are Crawford and Bradley, who are a couple of the more underestimated players in the league. Crawford ranks 6th in the conference in scoring and 10th in field-goal perecentage, while Bradley ranks 2nd in free-throw percentage.

Depth: Injuries have plagued the Wildcats, who now cycle just 8 men regularly and sub 3 others.

Intangibles: Survival is the key word here, as the Wildcats absolutely must win at least one game in the conference tournament to keep their NCAA hopes alive. The team’s resurgence has been impressive, and the squad seems to be handling the loss of Patterson quite well. Needless to say, the Wildcats have had an immense amount of success in their history in Atlanta.

Prediction: UK should be able to handle either Georgia or Ole Miss, although the Rebels could be a potential mismatch. Next up would likely be Mississippi State, who the Wildcats particularly do not match up well against.

Final Wirth Value

Now that regular-season play has completed, this will be the final Wirth Value until next season. Until then, it bids you farewell…

Offense

1. Tennessee (51.09, +1)
2. Vanderbilt (49.93, -1)
3. Florida (45.60, NC)
4. Ole Miss (37.80, NC)
5. Arkansas (34.71, NC)
6. Miss. State (33.69, +1)
7. Kentucky (32.34, +1)
8. Alabama (30.95, -2)
9. South Carolina (21.98, NC)
10. Auburn (17.34, NC)
11. LSU (13.61, +1)
12. Georgia (13.55, -1)

Defense

1. Miss. State (50.90, NC)
2. Arkansas (46.42, +1)
3. Kentucky (45.48, -1)
4. Tennessee (42.01, NC)
5. Georgia (30.56, NC)
6. Ole Miss (29.59, NC)
7. LSU (27.35, NC)
8. Vanderbilt (22.98, +1)
9. Alabama (21.69, +2)
10. Florida (21.33, -2)
11. South Carolina (17.45, -1)
12. Auburn (13.00, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (135.96, NC)
—————————–
2. Miss. State (105.76, NC)
3. Arkansas (101.78, +3)
4. Ole Miss (101.09, +1)
5. Vanderbilt (100.01, -2)
6. Florida (99.33, -2)
—————————-
7. Kentucky (83.88, NC)
—————————-
8. Alabama (75.00, NC)
—————————-
9. South Carolina (56.88, NC)
10. Georgia (51.65, NC)
11. LSU (45.50, +1)
12. Auburn (44.11, -1)

—The categories stay pretty much the same this week, as Tennessee is clearly the most efficient SEC team, followed by the “NCAA Bunch”, although Florida and Ole Miss seem to be the weakest links of the group as Mississippi State seems to be pulling away with second.

—Kentucky’s numbers fell a small bit from last week, but they remain about 17 points shy of that magical 100 area where the SEC NCAA locks seem to be hovering. The question remains: Will the conference record offset the non-conference record enough?

—Alabama is all alone in the potential NIT at-large bids without a chance for an NCAA at-large bid.

—The remaining teams have packed it up and called it a year, barring miracle runs in the SEC Tournament.

—Note of interest: Alabama fell two offensively but rose two defensively after losing to LSU but then defeating #16 Vanderbilt.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

Next up will be a complete and utter breakdown of every team and their SEC Tournament matchups.

Saturday Games

(16-15, 5-11) Alabama [78] vs. (25-6, 10-6) #16 Vanderbilt [73]: This game will drop the Commodores a seed or two, as the ‘Dores have a less-than-stellar 6-6 record in road/neutral courts on the year and this being arguably the worst such loss. Vanderbilt simply couldn’t find any offense against a practically non-existent Alabama defense, shooting just 38.2% from the field. Riley came up huge for the Tide, scoring a game-high 26 points on 6-of-13 from long range and grabbing 10 boards for his second double-double of the season and Hendrix was actually outshined by Ogilvy and still put up his 16th double-double of the season with 12 points and 11 rebounds. Gee did was he does best - put up enough shots to score some points but not shoot particularly well, shooting 5-of-12 and 2-of-5 from long range for 16 points. Shan Foster came off of his 42-point blowup against Mississippi State by notching 21 in this loss, shooting 7-of-16. Ogilvy contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The postseason isn’t completely out of the question for the Tide now, if the squad could get hot and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament. That will have to go through Florida and Mississippi State, however.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a significant loss for Vanderbilt, who proved that down the stretch when it counts the most, the ‘Dores can’t win on the road - even against a lesser opponent. That will not be looked upon kindly by the selection committee, and Vandy needs to win at least a game in the SEC Tournament to counter that image. As for specifics, I’d say the Commodores fell from a 3 or 4 seed to a 5 or 6 seed with this loss.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 7-of-25 shooting from long range (28.0%)

(13-16, 4-12) Georgia [62] vs. (21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [76]: Another case of a weak defensive team suddenly holding their opponent to poor shooting, as the Rebels held Georgia to a 30.8% effort from the floor. This was a desperately-needed statement win for the Rebels, who are trying to claw their way into NCAA Tournament consideration. Now just two games under .500 in the conference, 21 wins overall, and another road win under their belt, the Rebels could very well be on the good side of the bubble. Five Rebels scored between 15 and 10 points, led by Warren and Curtis with 15. Parnell had an unusually successful game as well, notching 13 points and a team-high 7 rebounds. Woodbury led the Bulldogs with 18 points as Gaines did more harm than good by putting up 21 attempts and only hitting 5, although he did claim 7 rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little, as the postseason is out of the question for the Bulldogs without a conference tournament title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are suddenly back in the thick of the NCAA discussion after three-straight wins, including one over likely NCAA-bound Arkansas and a road win. A win in the conference tournament would likely make the Rebs a lock for the Big Dance.
Stat of the Game: Gaines’ 5-of-21 shooting (23.8%)

(21-9, 12-4) #25 Mississippi State [84] vs. (13-17, 6-10) LSU [75]: This game was closer than the Bulldogs would have liked, as the Tigers led by 1 at halftime. The ‘Dawgs did what they have been doing during the conference season, though, and found a way to win. This was also a stereotypical MSU game in terms of defense and blocking, as State did both well - swatting 10 shots as a team to capture the SEC’s single-season block record. In his last home game, senior Charles Rhodes scored a team-high 27 points and 10 rebounds as he’s been on a serious roll as of late, recording his ninth double-double of the season and second in a row. For the second game in a row, Gordon joined Rhodes in the 20+ points collumn with 23 points and 9 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, knocked away 7 shots. Marcus Thornton tried to go Shan Foster on State again, hitting three consecutive threes late in the game to pull within four, but then started missing. He finished with a tie for career-high 38 points on 6-of-12 shooting from three while Randolph notched 14 points and 10 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season.
Impact [Miss. State]: Avoiding the let-down loss was the main concern for State at this point, as a game or two in the SEC Tournament could result in a 5-seed or better.
Impact [LSU]: With the loss, the West’s four-seed is where the Tigers will fall, which is substantially better than they seemed to have been heading for just a couple of weeks ago. No postseason is possible without winning the SEC Tournament title.
Stat of the Game: The league’s three top shot-blockers in action: Varnado (7), Johnson (1), and Randolph (1)

(20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [77] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [64]: This game appeared to be headed towards the blowout I expected at halftime, where the Razorbacks held a 45-26 lead. But some backups got minutes and the lead shrunk a bit, but this was a complete mismatch from the beginning. Arkansas destroyed the Tigers on the boards, shot remarkably well from all spots on the floor, and the ‘Backs big-men had their way inside. Beverly shot to his potential for the third-straight game, hitting 9-of-11 from the floor and 6-of-6 from behind the arc for 27 points along with grabbing 8 rebounds, while Darian Townes hit 6-of-7 shots to score 12 points and claimed a season-high 14 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Frank Tolbert was Auburn’s main offensive weapon, as he sank 7-of-12 shots, grabbed 4 rebounds, and handed out 5 assists but turned the ball over 5 times for 17 points.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks might have secured an at-large NCAA bid with this win, guaranteeing themselves a + .500 SEC record. The squad’s performance in the SEC Tournament will determine the seed, which could be as low as a 10 or 9, or as high as a 7 or 8.
Impact [Auburn]: Time to get the hands hot, because winning the conference tournament is the Tigers’ only shot at the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ big-men hitting 14-of-22 (63.6%) shots total

Sunday Games

(18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [75] vs. (21-10, 8- Florida [70]: In this crucial battle-of-the-bubble game, the Wildcats held onto their lead despite a late charge by the Gators. Surprisingly, Florida heavily outrebounded Kentucky, but succombed to their defensive prowess and showed none of their own as the ‘Cats shot very well from the floor. Kentucky’s lack of depth was apparent, as only six Wildcats scored, as Stevenson led the Blue in scoring…stepping up nicely in the abscense of Patterson. Stevenson put up 18 points on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting effort and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the campaign, needless to mention blocking 5 shots. Crawford had an off-day shooting-wise, hitting just 7-of-17 shots and 2-of-7 from three, and Bradley handed out 7 assists but turned the ball over 4 times. Speights is becoming a star for Florida, with another 20-point outing on 8-of-11 shooting and 8 rebounds, and Calathes continues to be reliable with 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting and 6 assists to just 2 turnovers. The Gators aren’t terribly deep, but are very, very talented.
Impact [Kentucky]: This is a remarkable situation, really. As of now, there simply can’t be an informed observer of the sport that would say Kentucky isn’t an NCAA-quality team. But with a questionable RPI and two terrible losses (three if you count the 40+ embarassment to Vanderbilt), will 12 SEC wins but just 18 overall wins be enough? My guess is yes, but a win against either Ole Miss or Georgia would solidify their stake.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are about on the same spot on the bubble as Kentucky is at this point. The RPI is certainly not favorable and the strength of schedule is miserable, but Florida managed to go .500 in a power conference and win 21 games. I’d say the Gators are in a slightly worse position than the Wildcats, as at least one win the SEC Tournament will be necessary for NCAA inclusion.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 28-of-48 shooting (58.3%)

(28-3, 14-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [56]: The story of this blowout is how close the game was at halftime. At the midpoint, the Vols were nursing a 38-37 lead. From that point on, Tennessee outscored the Gamecocks 51-19 the rest of the way, and finishing up outrebounding their opponents by 18. Lofton has gotten in touch with his talent recently, scoring 28 points in this win on 10-of-16 shooting and 6-of-10 from long range to go along with 4 steals. JuJuan Smith was the only other Vol scoring in double digits in this well-balanced Volunteer assault with 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting and 9 rebounds. Holmes has truly stepped up for South Carolina in the past six games, as he’s scored in double digits in five of those and posted double-doubles in three of them. In this contest, Holmes recorded 15 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey had a tough day shooting 1-of-9 put also dishing out 9 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols remain an obvious pick for a #1 seed, and should remain that way as long as they reach the finals of the SEC Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: The postseason is an impossibilty unless the Gamecocks manage to win the SEC Tournament - which I wouldn’t completely rule out, as Odom has a history of success in it.

Saturday Odds…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

(15-15, 4-11) Alabama [#134] vs. (25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#7]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - Although the Commodores haven’t been especially efficient on the road, Alabama doesn’t have the depth to win this game.
—Keys: How will Foster react to his monster game against MSU? Can Ogilvy even come close to containing Hendrix? Hendrix needs touches for UA, and Vanderbilt needs to stay accurate from three.

(13-15, 4-11) Georgia [#145] vs. (20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [#42]
Spread: Even
Pick: Georgia - The Rebels have yet to win a conference road game, and this will be Gaines’ last home game.
—Keys: Look for Gaines to have a huge game. The Rebels need motivation for themselves, as this is a must-win for their NCAA hopes.

(20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [#37] vs. (13-16, 6-9) LSU [#160]
Spread: Miss. State by 10.5
Pick: Mississippi State - This is a bad matchup for LSU, as the Tigers have very little offense and even less depth. Rhodes should also come up big for the Bulldogs, as this will be his last regular-season home game.
Keys: Keep an eye on Rhodes, and even Gordon if he knows he’s leaving to the NBA. A loss today would drop State significantly in the NCAA seeding process.

(19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [#40] vs. (14-14, 4-11) Auburn [#155]
Spread: Arkansas by 13.5
Pick: Arkansas - This should get ugly. Not only is this a very severe mismatch for the Tigers, but an enormous amount of Razorbacks will be playing in their last regular-season home game and for a NCAA bid.
Keys: Auburn will have to shoot lights-out to even stay in this game. An absolute must-win for the Razorbacks to make the NCAA Tournament.

Wednesday games…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

With the last set of regular-season games coming up, posts will soon begin focus on postseason play.

(13-16, 5-10) South Carolina [63] vs. (17-11, 11-4) Kentucky [71]: Kentucky’s lack of depth again became apparent, and yet the team won another road game. Without Patterson, rebounding wasn’t a strength (the teams tied) for the Wildcats, but the squad’s shooting was phenomenal. Crawford brought down a season-high 35 points on 10-of-19 shooting, while Bradley scored 20 points on 6-of-11 shooting. The team’s two remaining big-men, Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson, took a combined 5 attempts from the floor - making it increasingly obvious Kentucky has abandoned any attempts at running some offense through the post. That will work as long as you’re playing against a guard-oriented team like USC and your own guards are shooting over 50%, but I suspect the team will fold against a bigger, more substantial team. Downey took much less responsibility than usual, shooting only 9 times, while Fredrick led the Gamecocks with 19 points. Holmes, who has really stepped up in SEC play, recorded his third double-double with 16 points and a game-high 10 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks won’t be seeing the postseason without a miracle run in the SEC Tournament.
Impact [Kentucky]: With their 11th SEC win but just 17 wins overall, the Wildcats still seem like a wild-card for the NCAA Tournament. Florida at home is an absolute must-win, and a game in the SEC Tournament would certainly help. Lose in the next two games, and the ‘Cats will be headed for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 56.4% shooting

(14-14, 4-11) Auburn [54] vs. (13-15, 4-11) Georgia [59]: While this would have been a big road win for Felton’s squad earlier in the year, it was a non-factor at this point in the season. As most teams do against the Tigers, Georgia rebounded well and turned the ball over too much. Auburn’s sudden lack of shooting prowess was the story of the game, as the team put up an entirely unneccessary 31 threes and only hit 9 of them. Sophomore Albert Jackson suddenly stepped up for the Bulldogs, scoring a season-high 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds. Gaines didn’t have a particularly impressive game, shooting just 2-of-8 for 11 points. Tolbert was again the Tigers’ lead scorer, but just with 12 points on 3-of-10 shooting. Prowell contributed 11 points and 7 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers should be looking towards next season at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: The Bulldogs are in the same boat as the Tigers.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 19.4% three-point shooting

(13-16, 6-9) LSU [80] vs. (15-15, 4-11) Alabama [74]: This game was very stereotypical for both teams, as Hendrix was a load inside for the Tide but wasn’t able to win the game by himself and LSU’s depth problems led to two 20+ scorers. Alabama dominated the rebounding collumn, while the Tigers shared the ball well and blocked an impressive 14 shots. Anthony Randolph led all scorers with a season-high 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting and a perfect 9-of-9 from the charity stripe. Marcus Thornton wasn’t far behind with 27 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three, while Chris Johnson neared a triple-double with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 blocks - his fourth double-double of the season and third in the past four games. The rest of the LSU team totalled 13 points. Hendrix notched his 15th double-double of the season with 16 points and 13 rebounds, while Jemison was a nice complement with 14 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: The Tigers have won four games in a row and suddenly placed themselves two games out of last place in the division and are competing for the three seed heading into the SEC Tournament. Unfortunately, it will be too little too late without a SEC Tournament title.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide continue to be tied with Auburn and Georgia for the title of the conference’s worst team.
Stat of the Game: Randolph/Thornton taking 64.7% of LSU’s shot attempts

(25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [86] vs. (20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [85]: This was one of the wildest games of the season. The Bulldogs seemed to control the entire game, leading almost all of it, but the immensely talented Shan Foster suddenly caught fire from three after missing six-straight to hit nine in a row, including one to send the game to overtime and another to win the game. The Commodores finish the season undefeated at home in a thriller, as Foster scored the second-most points in Vandy history: 42. Foster finished 16-of-25 from the field and 9-of-15 from three, needless to mention his five rebounds. His unbelievable display of leadership and shooting prowess against the nation’s second-ranked defense almost certainly has guaranteed him SEC Player of the Year, despite his rival Jamont Gordon scoring 24 points and 8 rebounds. Senior Charles Rhodes put up 22 points and 14 rebounds for his 8th double-double of the season for the Bulldogs, but none of this was enough to stop Foster from hitting contested threes to win the game. MSU had a couple of opportunities in both regulation and overtime to ice the game from the free throw line, but continuously hit one out of two to allow Foster to keep raining threes. My question would be…if he’s hit 6 in a row and you’re up by four in the final minute, wouldn’t you start fouling?
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a huge win for Vanderbilt, as a 3-seed remains possible. However, a 3-seed in the SEC Tournament may still be waiting unless Kentucky stumbles on Saturday.
Impact [Mississippi State]: The Bulldogs desperately needed the signiture win to improve their seeding. With the emotional overtime loss, the ‘Dawgs now face an LSU team on a 4-game win-streak at home with the SEC Tournament to follow. If there was a definition of a trap-game, this would be it.
Stat of the Game: What else? 42 points, 9-of-15 from three. State’s 53.6% free throw effort could be included, however.

(21-9, 8-7) Florida [86] vs. (27-3, 13-2) #4 Tennessee [89]: The Gators seemed to have solid control of this game even into the second half, leading by at least 13, but the Vols buckled down and went on a run to force a close win late. Most surprising was Tennessee’s lack of defense, allowing the Gators to shoot 59.6% on the game. Both teams posted two players with more than 20 points, as JuJuan Smith and Chris Lofton put up 23 and 21 points respectively for the Vols. The two shot a combined 8-of-15 from three and 15-of-24 from the field. Calathes led the Gators with 24 points but an even more impressive 9 assists, while Speights shot a perfect 8-of-8 for 21 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: Dropping a close home game that would have sealed an NCAA bid is a heart-breaker for the Gators, as a trip to Lexington is next. That game could very well be a must-win for Florida’s NCAA chances.
Impact [Tennessee]: With the tough road win, the Vols remain a solid pick for a #1 seed, depending on the outcome of the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: The two teams’ combined 55.5% shooting efforts

Tuesday game, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 136-34 (80.0%)
Vs. Spread: 62-56 (52.5%)
Overall (SEC): 43-16 (72.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 29-29 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Tuesday Game

(20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [81] vs. (19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [72]: This was a case of those not-as-close-as-they-look games, as the Rebels held a firm grasp on the game from very early on until the Razrbacks made a late charge. Arkansas’ road woes continued against the Rebels, as the ‘Backs’ defense was almost non-existent - Ole Miss shot 50.9% from the field. Despite Arkansas’ physical team makeup, the Rebels did what they have done very well all year: rebound, outrebounding their opponents 36-29. The Rebels were ultimately too quick and athletic for Arkansas to keep up with on the road. As per my keys, Curtis was indeed able to pull more than his own weight inside against Arkansas’ big men, scoring 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds for his unbelievable 15th double-double of the season. Curtis is easily one of the most overlooked inside men in the conference. Huertas also shot well, hitting 3-of-6 shots from long range and dishing out 5 assists. For Arkansas, Beverly finally found his shot just as Weems lost his. Beverly shot 7-of-13 and 3-of-8 from three for 19 points while Weems (who has scored at least 20 points in 7 of the last 13 games) managed just 5 points on 2-of-11 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This win certainly keeps the Rebels’ NCAA hopes alive, although the team will likely need to win at Georgia and at least a game in the SEC Tournament. The RPI (42nd) is respectable, but the their last 10 games (4-6) is less so.
Impact [Arkansas]: This dealt a huge blow to the Razorbacks, who suddenly fall from probably NCAA pick to the wrong side of the bubble. Luckily, Auburn at home is next, but Arkansas’ 5-9 Road/Nuetral record is certainly not favorable. One win the SEC Tournament could put them in, however.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss shooting 20.4% better from three

Wednesday Odds

(13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [#139] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [#55]
Spread: South Carolina by 1
Pick: South Carolina - Before the loss of Patterson, I would have picked Kentucky. However, the Wildcats now seemingly have noone to keep Downey from the lane.
—Keys: Obviously, can Kentucky establish inside presence with just Stevenson, and keep Downey our of the lane? Will South Carolina regain their composure from behind the 3-point arc. With the NCAA on the line, will the Wildcats choke?

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [#143] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [#156]
Spread: Auburn by 2
Pick: Auburn - The Tigers have the firepower to put up some points, and the Bulldogs don’t have the defense to stop them.
—Keys: Will Humphrey or someone else be able to complement Gaines for Georgia, and how will the Tigers try and stop Gaines?

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [#163] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [#122]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU - The Tigers have won three in a row over better competition, and Alabama has dropped 3 of their last 4.
—Keys: LSU’s defense is actually pretty solid, and the Alabama guards will need to be able to bring down whatever points they are able to. Look for the matchup of Johnson and Randolph’s defense against Hendrix’s offense.

(24-5, 9-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (20-8, 11-3) #25 Mississippi State [#38]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 3.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - The Commodores are undefeated at home, although this could be a mismatch for Vanderbilt. The game should be a competitive one, as the ‘Dores’ offense is paired up against the Dawgs’ defense.
—Keys: Will Varnado be able to silence Ogilvy inside? MSU will need to minimize turnovers if they want to have a chance, and Commodores will need to make shots against the nation’s second-ranked defense.

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [#60] vs. (26-3, 12-2) #4 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 1.5
Pick: Tennessee - The Vols seem unphased by road play, and the Gators are still struggling. With the Gators’ youth, look for them to give up a big number of turnovers against Tennessee’s press defense.
—Turnovers will be key - Florida will need to keep them in check. With Florida’s lack of defense of any type, Tennessee’s efficient offense could make this a blowout.

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 135-34 (79.9%)
Vs. Spread: 61-56 (52.1%)
Overall (SEC): 42-16 (72.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 28-29 (49.1%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

(19-9, 5-9) Ole Miss [#45] vs. (19-9, 8-6) Arkansas [#39]
Spread: Ole Miss by 2
Pick: Ole Miss - The Rebels play well at home and the Razorbacks play poorly on the road (a 5-8 record).
—Keys: Will Curtis be able to pull his weight plus some against Arkansas’ big-men? Also, look for Ole Miss’ points off fastbreak - Warren’s speed sh