ESPN Bracket Caster NCAA Tournament predictions…
Posted by hoopsknowitall on March 20, 2008
ESPN has featured on its front page an Insider-provided element called the “Bracket Caster“, where you can see each team’s percentage shot of defeating any given team, and predicts the playout of the tournament. This very interesting simulation program takes lots of seemingly “intangibles”, including performances against similar teams, coaches’ records in similar situations in past NCAA Tournaments, teams’ experience, etc. Seems logical enough.
Here are the perecentages for first-round SEC games…
Arkansas over Indiana: 39%
Tennessee over American: 88%
Vanderbilt over Siena: 64%
Mississippi State over Oregon: 53%
Kentucky over Marquette: 30%
Georgia over Xavier: 25%
—With those posted, this is the predicted results for each team, with five simluations for each. The bracketed percentage is the chance that the SEC team would win the game.
When listing best possible scenarios, I chose a 25% chance of winning for the minimum requirement across the board. However, if that team wins with less than a 30% chance, their minimum required percentage chance of winning any game in the future was increased by 5% from that point up to 50% to eliminate any statistical improbabilities.
Tennessee
1. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Loses to (7) Butler [60%] 67-63 in second round.
2. Loses to (15) American [88%] 80-76 in first round.
3. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Defeats (10) South Alabama [73%] 72-64 in second round. Defeats (3) Louisville [53%] 69-66 in Sweet Sixteen. Loses to (4) Washington State [56%] 67-64 in Elite Eight.
4. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Defeats (7) Butler [60%] 67-62 in second round. Loses to (11) St. Joseph’s [78%] 72-68 in Sweet Sixteen.
5. Loses to (15) American [88%] 80-76 in first round.
Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (15) American [88%] in first round, defeat (10) South Alabama [73%] in second round, defeat (11) St. Joseph’s [78%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat (4) Washington State [56%] in Elite Eight, defeat (1) Kansas [40%] in Final Four, defeat (1) UCLA [40%] in National Championship game.
Arkansas
1. Defeats ( 
Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.
2. Loses to ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round.
3. Defeats ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.
4. Defeats ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.
5. Loses to ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round.
Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round, lose to (1) North Carolina [21%] in second round.
Vanderbilt
1. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.
2. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Defeats (12) Villanova [64%] 70-64 in second round. Defeats (1) Kansas [29%] 72-68 in Sweet Sixteen. Loses to (3) Wisconsin [40%] 66-62 in Elite Eight.
3. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.
4. Loses to (13) Siena [63%] 80-78 in first round.
5. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round.Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.
Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (13) Siena [63%] in first round, defeat (12) Villanova [64%] in second round, defeat (1) Kansas [30%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat () Kansas State [58%] in Elite Eight, defeat (4) Washington State [47%] in Final Four, defeat (1) UCLA [29%] in National Championship game.
Mississippi State
1. Loses to (9) Oregon [53%] 72-70 in first round.
2. Loses to (9) Oregon [53%] 72-70 in first round.
3. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.
4. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.
5. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.
Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (9) Oregon [53%] in first round, defeat (1) Memphis [27%] in second round, defeat (12) Temple [58%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat (11) Kentucky [59%] in Elite Eight, lose to (1) UCLA [23%] in Final Four.
Kentucky
1. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.
2. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.
3. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.
4. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.
5. Defeats (6) Marquette [30%] 70-65 in first round. Defeats (3) Stanford [31%] 67-66 in second round. Loses to (10) St. Mary’s-California [42%] 66-62 in Sweet Sixteen.
Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (6) Marquette [30%] in first round, defeat (3) Stanford [31%] in second round, defeat (10) St. Mary’s-California [42%] in Sweet Sixteen, Defeat (12) Temple [49%] in Elite Eight, Lose to (1) UCLA [13%] in Final Four.
Georgia
1. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.
2. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.
3. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.
4. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.
5. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.
Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (3) Xavier [25%] in first round, defeat (11) Baylor [50%] in second round, defeat (7) West Virginia [34%] in Sweet Sixteen, lose to (1) UCLA [12%] in Elite Eight.
