Now that the season is long gone, it’s time to analyze how well each SEC team did compared to my pre-season expectations of them. Here’s a basic look, per team.
Alabama
Predicted Record: 19-12, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (1 or 2 seed)
Actual Record: 16-15, 5-11
Actual Postseason: None
I underestimated the impact that the loss of Steele’s decision-making would have on the Tide. The only non-conference game I got wrong was UA’s loss to Belmont, but the Tide tanked in-conference, finishing 5th in the West.
Arkansas
Predicted Record: 25-5, 12-4
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (4 or 5 seed)
Actual Record: 20-10, 9-7
Actual Postseason: NCAA (9 seed)
Arkansas simply never found their offense and Beverly lost some of his touch. I missed all three of the Razorbacks’ losses in the non-conference, and the ‘Backs never challenged for the overall title, finishing 2nd in the West.
Auburn
Predicted Record: 19-10, 8-8
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (10 or 11 seed)
Actual Record: 14-15, 4-12
Actual Postseason: None
Apparently experience doesn’t equal more consistent play on the plains, as almost the same team fell back into typical Auburn standards. Injuries and suspensions hurt the squad, but it doesn’t seem like that compensated for my overestimation of the Tigers.
Florida
Predicted Record: 21-9, 8-8
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (10 or 11 seed)
Actual Record: 21-10, 8-8
Actual Postseason: NIT (2 seed)
Although I somehow managed to pull off some funky math, I was almost spot-on about the Gators. I figured the squad would look impressive in the non-conference, and end up even in the conference. I figured, despite a weak RPI, the team would be invited to the NCAA Tournament based on the previous year’s national title, but was wrong.
Georgia
Predicted Record: 16-11, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (3 or 4 seed)
Actual Record: 13-16, 4-12
Actual Postseason: NCAA (14 seed)
Despite overestimating the Bulldogs, the squad actually surpassed my postseason expectations due to a now-infamous late-season surge that sent them to a SEC Tournament Championship and an NCAA bid. Although the ‘Dawgs put up a good fight, 3-seed Xavier ended their run in the first round.
Kentucky
Predicted Record: 23-8, 11-5
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (3 or 4 seed)
Actual Record: 18-11, 12-4
Actual Postseason: NCAA (11 seed)
I was dead wrong about the Wildcats’ non-conference performance. The ‘Cats floundered, including home losses to San Diego and Gardner-Webb by a combined total of 25 points. However, Gillespie righted the sinking ship by performing well in-conference and barely surpassing my expectations.
LSU
Predicted Record: 11-18, 3-13
Predicted Postseason: None
Actual Record: 13-17, 6-10
Actual Postseason: None
The Tigers were looking to prove me exactly right, losing 12 of 14 games in the middle of the season. However, Brady was then fired and the team went on to win four straight conference games and beat my conference prediction by three games.
Mississippi State
Predicted Record: 26-4, 13-3
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (1-3 seed)
Actual Record: 21-9, 12-4
Actual Postseason: NCAA (8 seed)
As the Bulldogs adjusted to a new offense, there were growing pains I didn’t expect in the form of losses to South Alabama, Miami-FL, Miami-OH, and Southern Illinois. Ironically, if those early-season stumbles had been avoided, MSU would have nearly matched the predictions. State did go on to win the West and compete for the overall title, though.
Ole Miss
Predicted Record: 13-17, 3-13
Predicted Postseason: None
Actual Record: 21-9, 7-9
Actual Postseason: NIT (2 seed)
Kennedy inspired this team to an excellent non-conference showing, but the team lost its magic in the confines of the SEC. Warren proved a difference-maker, as the team greatly surpassed my expectations.
South Carolina
Predicted Record: 14-16, 4-12
Predicted Postseason: None
Actual Record: 13-17, 5-11
Actual Postseason: None
This was one of my better predictions, although the Gamecocks didn’t fare quite as well as I expected in the Old Spice Classic.
Tennessee
Predicted Record: 26-5, 13-3
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (1 seed)
Actual Record: 28-3, 14-2
Actual Postseason: NCAA (2 seed)
Although the Vols actually performed better than I expected overall, the team still [unjustly] did not receive a top seed in the tournament. With that said, my call was pretty close to correct on this one.
Vanderbilt
Predicted Record: 19-12, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (1 or 2 seed)
Actual Record: 25-6, 10-6
Actual Postseason: NCAA (4 seed)
The Commodores also swept through their non-conference competition, for them on the back of Shan Foster. Foster – eventual SEC Player of the Year – was an incredible 3-point shooter and thrusted the ‘Dores to a high NCAA seed.
Overall
I ended up missing the total number of games won by an average of 0.75 games per team, although that number softens the misses on both sides of the spectrum. Not terrible, but I can certainly do better.
On to 2008/09!
