RTC SEC Update

I recently released a post on Rush The Court on the SEC thus far, thought you guys would find it interesting. Leave comments!

Wirth Value: Week One

So, I’ve made a decision – the Wirth Value will not take into account the quality of teams faced until conference play, when I re-introduce the RPI into the equation. I will make note of the teams each squad has faced and comment on whether the stats are inflated or not, but there’s just no way to weight the teams correctly without an accurate RPI, and the RPI won’t be anywhere near accurate until at least the end of OOC play. With that said, here are Week One’s results.

With that disclaimer comes another – because no weight is being given to the level of competition, these values will increase in relevance as the season progresses. Thus, Week One’s Wirth Value is nothing more than an interesting set of numbers to look at.

Also, I’ve changed the posting format a bit. The lines between teams show any significant gaps between teams’ scores, essentially placing them in “tiers”.

OFFENSE

1. Tennessee (86.75)
2. Miss. State (85.50)
3. LSU (81.25)
——————–
4. Kentucky (67.25)
5. South Carolina (67.00)
6. Alabama (62.75)
——————–
7. Auburn (53.50)
8. Florida (52.00)
9. Ole Miss (49.50)
——————–
10. Vanderbilt (29.75)
11. Arkansas (21.75)
——————–
12. Georgia (6.25)

DEFENSE

1. LSU (85.75)
2. Miss. State (84.00)
——————–
3. Alabama (71.00)
——————–
4. Georgia (60.75)
4. Tennessee (60.75)
6. Florida (58.50)
7. South Carolina (56.00)
8. Vanderbilt (49.00)
9. Arkansas (40.00)
10. Kentucky (38.50)
——————–
11. Auburn (27.00)
12. Ole Miss (21.75)

OVERALL

1. LSU (215.75)
1. Miss. State (215.75)
3. Tennessee (199.75)
——————–
4. South Carolina (179.00)
5. Alabama (169.75)
6. Florida (159.75)
——————–
7. Auburn (126.00)
8. Kentucky (119.50)
9. Ole Miss (100.75)
10. Vanderbilt (110.50)
——————–
11. Arkansas (80.75)
12. Georgia (79.50)

NUMBER OF CATEGORIES LED

Mississippi State:   7
Tennessee:   4
Florida:   3
South Carolina:   3
Alabama:   1
Auburn:   1
Ole Miss:   1

—While LSU and Mississippi State both seem to be dominating the stat categories, they should both be pretty inflated by a very soft early-season schedule. While LSU’s cupcakes should continue, we’ll learn a lot about the Bulldogs this coming week against Washington State and then either Pittsburgh or Texas Tech.

—Tennessee has faced two very solid mid-majors in MTSU and UT-Martin with MTSU on the road. They seem to be the best team in the SEC at the moment.

—South Carolina at a distant fourth considering their abysmal competition (which will continue throughout their OOC) is not promising for them when the SEC East comes around. As I’ve said all along, the talking heads are going to jump on the ESC bandwagon when they go a while undefeated, only for the Gamecocks to get knocked down to real life in the SEC.

—Alabama and Florida, both with a weak OOC thus far, seem to be heavily disappointing as near-favorites in their respective divisions. Florida is undefeated against cupcakes and still has not put up big numbers.

—Auburn has a loss to a surprising Mercer squad, and still ranks near the middle of the back in the conference – which is an exciting statement for the Tigers considering their horrible performance in the past few years.

—Kentucky and Ole Miss have racked up some pretty bad losses, although Kentucky’s stats are probably the only SEC team thus far which are under-inflated because of an early-season matchup with #1 UNC. Vanderbilt has a “good” loss to Illinois, but Shan Foster’s departure has obviously hurt the ‘Dores very badly.

—Georgia and Arkansas are down-right terrible this season. Georgia’s offensive stats are the worst I’ve ever seen, and Arkansas is struggling with every single cupcake on the schedule. Expect these two teams to bring up the rear of the conference.

Wednesday games…

Mississippi State [102] vs. North Alabama [61]: I caution excited/dismayed readers that this was a rare SEC vs. D-II regular-season matchup. With that said, the Bulldogs certainly took care of business – although the Lions pulled within 8 early in the second half. State is looking pretty dominant in their early-season games, although they’ve all been against terrible teams. Regardless – MSU is at or near the top of the SEC is several offensive and defensive categories, and continued that tonight. Varnado once again neared triple-double status with 16 points, 14 rebounds, and 7 blocks – just sick. Stewart is still looking to be in freshman-season form with 16 points as well, and FRESHMAN point guard Dee Bost handed out 10 assists (although with 5 turnovers). 21 turnovers is too many, although that is to be expected with a young team – and in typical MSU fashion the rebounding numbers are just ridiculous (51-27). As a whole, a great performance that means very little. We’ll know more about these ‘Dawgs after they play in the Legends Classic championships rounds against Washington State and then either Texas Tech or Pittsburgh. If State can win those two games, they should hop into the Top 25.
Impact [Miss. State]: Very little, outside of some stats-fluffing and some confidence.
Grade [Miss. State]: (A) Not perfect, with some turnover troubles, but darn-near close.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s 23-of-26 (88.5%) performance from the charity stripe

Alabama [89] vs. Florida A&M [48]: The Tide rebounded from an embarassing home loss to Mercer and destroyed FAMU, for what it was worth. The Tide hit the boards better and defended well, although ball-handling wasn’t nearly as impressive as it was in their first outing. Steele led the team in scoring – which in general isn’t a good sign for a point guard, especially considering he hit just 4-of-10 shots. A good percentage, but not good enough to be hoisting 10 attempts without handing out more than 1 assist. Gee went 0-fer, but Green had a promising 12-point, 8-rebound outing. Bama’s big men seem to be rebounding excellently, but not scoring efficiently enough. Gottfried’s squad’s point can’t come from the guard position, and certainly not consistently.
Impact [Alabama]: This was a nice recovery from the team’s first game, but some concern still lies at offensive production underneath the basket.
Grade [Alabama]: (A) Not much to complain about outside of the poor ball-handling
Stat of the Game: FAMU’s 0-for-13 mark from long range

Auburn [74] vs. Mercer [78]: Well, Tide fans can feel somewhat vindicated regarding their loss to Mercer, as Mercer has now beaten both Alabama SEC teams on their home floor. The world wants to know, is (3-0) Mercer that good or are the ‘Bama teams that bad? My gut tells me it’s more poor play from Alabama/Auburn than it is Mercer being THAT much improved, although it’s possible. Auburn fell exactly as Alabama did – on the boards. The Tigers got DOMINATED on the boards – but took very good care of the ball, which is a plus. Barber and Waller are looking to be the backbone of this team, as the two combined for 39 points on 14-of-26 shooting and 7 rebounds. If Lebo wants to win enough games to turn this team around, some amount of balance offensively will have to show up for Auburn.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers’ hopes at a turnaround season took a big hit with this loss. This team can’t afford any more gaffes at home, considering wins will be hard to come by in the SEC.
Grade [Auburn]: (C-) This wasn’t as bad a grade as Alabama because the Tigers, in theory, are a far weaker team than their in-state counterparts. Auburn must find complementary players and rebounding.
Stat of the Game: Mercer’s 46-21 rebounding advantage

Change of plans…

So, I’ve decided that instead of trying to catch up on a growing number of games, I’m just starting from here on out – so the previous post won’t be updated. Sorry about that!

This weekend’s games…

Note: Many of my posts this season will be works in progress – so if games are missing, have patience!

I’m debuting a new feature in this season’s recaps – the grade. This will be based on each team’s potential and performance as a whole compared to where they should have performed, or had the capacity to perform.

Also, I’m going to tweak the layout of the recaps. Instead of regurgitating stats, I’m going to use less stats and more commentary. Bare with me as the changes take shape over time. If you don’t like the changes, think it’s a good idea, or have any various comments – let me know in comments, they are VERY helpful!

Friday

Arkansas [91] vs. Southeastern Louisiana [87]: This was the first conference “tossup” game that I selected, and it didn’t disappoint. Seems like Arkansas’ freshmen and sophomores aren’t ready to defend yet, as the ‘Backs got outshot heavily by the experienced SeLa team. Michael Washington earned SEC Player of the Week honors from the SEC by a 10-of-16 performance for 30 points and 14 rebounds. The team has talented individual rebounders, but doesn’t hit the glass well as a team – which could be a symptom of a guard-oriented lineup. Speaking of the guards, the super-talented freshman duo Clarke and Fortson had big games, but for different reasons. Clarke looks to be an efficient (and hopefully reliable shooting guard, hitting 5-of-8 threes. Fortson had no fear, that’s for sure, which is a huge obstacle to overcome as a freshman. That said, he put up just one shot less than team-leader Washington and was medicore from the field. Following suit, he distributed the ball for 7 assists, but turned the ball over 6 times. If Arkansas wants to win consistently this season, Fortson needs to focus more on getting the ball to other players and take care of it in the process.
Impact [Arkansas]: This is a big win for Arkansas in a few ways. SeLa should be a nice RPI boost if that comes into play for the ‘Backs, and a close victory can mature young players quickly.
Grade [Arkansas]: (B-) Overall a solid performance against an experienced mid-major. As with many other young SEC teams, rebounding and defense must improve if Arkansas wants to be competitive.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas being outshot from the field 49.3% to 42.9%

Auburn [75] vs. Missouri State [60]: If I were an Auburn basketball fan (do they exist?), I’d be excited about Korvotney Barber and Tay Waller. This may be the most dynamic duo in the SEC. Barber showed just why everyone is so excited about him in his season opener – and why he led the nation in field-goal percentage last season before his injury. He shot 10-of-14 (wow) for 22 points and 5 rebounds. I’d like to see some more rebounding, but I certainly wouldn’t complain if the scoring keeps up. Oh yeah, he had 2 blocks and a steal too. Transfer Waller is looking more and more like a consistent and reliable guard after a 4-of-8 mark from long range in this game, and these guys combined with the SEC’s most underrated player in Quantez Robertson could actually do some damage for the Tigers this season. Auburn actually has some impressive talent this season, but with so little depth the team can not afford even a single injury or off-game.
Impact [Auburn]: This was a good win, as Missouri State was a surprisingly competitive mid-major last season. Nice confidence boost for AU.
Grade [Auburn]: (A) The Tigers rebounded well, forced turnovers, and took care of the ball. Nice performance.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 56.0% field-goal percentage

Florida [80] vs. Toledo [58]: And to think some doubted me when I put Dan Werner on my Second-Team All-SEC. Werner led the Gators in the blowout win with 19 points on 8-of-14 shooting and 5 rebounds and I don’t see this performance slacking much. This guy is talented, but just not dominating enough to carry as much load as Florida needs him to down low. Calathes, SEC POY candidate, increased his scoring to 16 points but sacrificed ball-handling, turning the ball over five times. If Calathes is going to increase his production offensively at the cost of turnovers, this could hurt the Gators – he needs someone to step into that shooting role. Alex Tyus at center isn’t cutting it – 2 rebounds won’t get it done in the paint. As talented as Florida is, seems as if the team isn’t meshing well early on.
Impact [Florida]: The win was nothing special, but a weakness in rebounding was exposed badly.
Grade [Florida]: (B-) A big win but defense was lacking and rebounding needs to improve.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s +2 rebounding margin and allowing Toledo to shoot 43.8%

Georgia [72] vs. USC-Upstate [48]: Nice all-around performance from the Bulldogs except for on the boards (Sound like a trend? What’s with SEC teams so far and poor rebounding?), as UGA thoroughly outshot and otherwise outplayed USC-Upstate. Scoring was pretty much even across the board, with injured Albert Jackson the only player who didn’t score. Four players scored either 10 or 11 points, two of them non-starters.
Impact [Georgia]: Not much. Easy win against a lesser opponent. Rebounding has surfaced as a concern.
Grade [Georgia]: (A-) No excuse for being outrebounded by USCU by 9.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 20 (pressure, much?) steals

Kentucky [103] vs. VMI [111]: Kentucky did it again. Last year’s 18-point opening blowout home loss to Gardner-Webb only somewhat eclipses this year’s first-game blowout home loss to VMI. And yes, this was a blowout loss despite the 8-point difference, and noone who saw the game would argue. VMI can score points, no doubt, but UK’s 25 turnovers and utter lack of defense didn’t help. VMI was up by well over 20 points at times during the game, as the Wildcats looked lost and confused throughout the game. UK’s offense was unbelievably lopsided, as Meeks attempted 27 (wow) shots from the field for 39 (another wow) points. Confusing to me, though, is that Perry Stevenson played literally every minute of the game while returning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Patterson played just 27. Patterson managed just 8 points in those 27 minutes, too. Both teams shot very, very well – but VMI’s hot-shooting from three got it done.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats desperately need VMI to do well this season, and they just might. Otherwise, UK has already lost a huge amount of respect on the national scene once again.
Grade [Kentucky]: (F) The Blue had no sense of balance, no gameplan, and no consistency. No excuse for such an embarassing loss.
Stat of the Game: VMI’s 14-of-31 (45.2%) mark from behind the arc

Sunday

Florida [81] vs. Bradley [58]: I hate to gloat (okay, no I don’t), but Werner is not only validating his Second-Team All-SEC pick, he’s making an argument for First Team. He’s currently leading the Gators in scoring, after tying for the lead in this game with 17 on 4-of-6 shooting from behind the arc. Very nice, especially for a “forward”. Chandler Parsons put up 10 rebounds – if those two can complement each other that well every game, Florida may actually have a reliable post presence…at least in the starting lineup. Calathes led the Gators in shots attempted (that shouldn’t happen) but had a solid 6-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio. Defense is still very, very shaky for Florida so far this season, as is rebounding.
Impact [Florida]: This game proved that the Toledo outing wasn’t a fluke – these Gators must find defense and rebounding.
Grade [Florida]: (B) Another big win, but it seems as if Florida is simply winning on talent at the moment, which won’t last forever.
Stat of the Game: Florida being outshot from the field 44.9% to 41.5%

Alabama [69] vs. Mercer [71]: Yeah, you read that right. In what was, to me, the most embarassing outing by an SEC squad this weekend, Mercer toppled some analysts’ favorite for the Western Division at home. How did they do it? Well, for one, Alabama (who is normally dominant on the boards) got outrebounded 56-38. Ouch. Defense? Not there. Offense? Not there. What WAS there? Former All-American Ronald Steele, who silenced all doubters who wondered if he could return to form after his surgeries and hiatus to the tune of 25 points. He hit 5-of-11 threes, which in theory is good if he can keep it up, but 11 treys sure seems like a lot to be attempting and seems to show that he was thinking shoot-first as opposed to old-school Steele pass-first mentality. Three assists to two turnovers says that too. On the up side, the squad took care of the ball, as six turnovers for a game is very impressive. As a whole, the Tide looks completely out of sync, and Gottfried has placed himself firmly on the very-very-hot-seat after just one game.
Impact [Alabama]: This was simply a devastating loss. Rebounding must improve, along with nearly everything else. This game could seriously hurt ‘Bama in the RPI if – as I suspect – the squad goes near .500 in the conference and is arguing for an NCAA bid.
Grade [Alabama]: (D-) The Tide didn’t fail only because this wasn’t a blowout loss. Not much positive to take from this game.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s current -18 rebound margin on the season

Monday

Georgia [53] vs. Loyola-Chicago [74]: This might not have been the most embarassing (although close) performance by the SEC over the weekend, but it was probably the most shocking. The Bulldogs absolutely laid a freakin’ egg against ULC in the NIT Season Tipoff, shooting terribly and making a joke of themselves with ball handling (how about a 5-to-18 assist-to-turnover ratio). The team outside of Woodbury and freshman Travis Leslie put up a COMBINED 11 points. Absolutely no offense. Oh yeah, and 5 assists for an entire team in a game is horrendous. Several SEC *players* had more assists in single games over the weekend. This Bulldog team is on track for a whole lot of losses this season if these kind of performances continue.
Impact [Georgia]: The Bulldogs will be living this loss again and again. Any hope for a postseason has taken a major blow with this loss, especially if it is a precursor for the future.
Grade [Georgia]: [F] Oddly, not much I can say about this horrific outing. Rebounding was the only “decent” stat category. The Bulldogs are badly, badly under-talented and will be relying upon one or two players all season.
Stat of the Game: ULC attempting 11 more shots from the field than UGA

Tuesday

Kentucky [58] @ North Carolina [77]: The Wildcats got thoroughly outplayed in Chapel Hill, although the game was a relatively close 6-7 points for much of the contest. Have no doubt, though, there was never any doubt who would win this game. Gillespie wised up and got Patterson playing time (37 minutes) in this one, and he showed why that’s a good idea: 19 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks. Meeks once again is attempting to carry Kentucky’s offensive load, and it is NOT going to work. He must be able to share the ball and stop putting up so many shots (20 in this one). He also is not able to handle the ball, as he turned it over 6 times – with that said, the entire team doesn’t seem to be able to either (28 as a team). This squad needs to complete their adjustment and quickly, while someone needs to step up and complement Meeks offensively.
Impact [Kentucky]: Kentucky wasn’t supposed to win this one, but the loss did help confirm the nation’s suspicions of UK after a loss to VMI. The loss also drops UK to an embarassing 0-2 to start the season.
Grade [Kentucky]: (C-) The ‘Cats were outclassed and bumbling on offense.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 14-to-28 assist-to-turnover ratio

Another setback for Ole Miss…

First Trevor Gaskins was lost, which really just hurt guard depth but not necessarily the Rebels’ talent-level too badly.

But now, this – Eniel Polynice has injured his knee and will be out for the remainder of the season. Polynice is the most experienced upperclassmen among a slew of underclassmen, and this loss not only is devastating for the Rebels’ defense and backcourt offense, but also for its experience.

If Andy Kennedy can squeak out a postseason birth after these two losses, he should be a heavy favorite for SEC Coach of the Year honors.

Absolute disaster…

While I’m following up this post with some actual game-by-game breakdowns, I thought I would express my utter shock and horror at this weekend’s games in the SEC. Apparently the day has come which SEC teams that can actually beat teams such as VMI, Loyola Chicago, or Mercer by 20 points as expected are the conference’s elite, while teams that were supposed to rank among the SEC’s top 4 or 5 are losing those games.

To compound the problem, off-the-court issues are plaguing teams across the league as well. Georgia’s mass losses are well documented, Jai Lucas left Florida, Ole Miss has lost two valuable guards and Mississippi State is missing two players two injury.

Is this bad fortune a case of bad luck, simply a symptom of a reloading conference, or is the SEC sliding against the nation’s best?

Discuss.

SEC’s final exhibition game…

On the eve of the SEC’s regular-season debut, Alabama wrapped up the league’s exhibition slate against Belhaven.

Alabama [97] vs. Belhaven [43]: Not much didn’t go right for the Tide on Thursday evening, as every major role-player stepped up and played their part in the well-oiled machine. Senario Hillman, who will be looked toward to lead the team in scoring, did so in this game with 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting. Freshman Jamychal Green, who ‘Bama needs a huge season out of, played much better in his second exhibition outing with 14 points and 7 rebounds, although 8 of those points came from the charity stripe. Green also stole the ball 5 times and blocked 3 shots. Big-time player Alonzo Gee put up 18 points and 6 rebounds, while returning former All-American Ronald Steele handed out 8 assists and turned the ball over just once. Even usually-inept forward Yamene Coleman shot 6-of-7 for 12 points in 17 minutes. The only scary stat was UA only outrebounding the D-II team 47-43.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 26-to-12 assist-to-turnover ratio

More exhibition results…

As we wind down the exhibition “season” and approach regular-season play, here are some recaps of SEC teams’ exhibition outings…

Alabama [99] vs. Faulkner [53]: While this was a convincing win as a result of a simple gap in athleticism, there were some worrying results in this contest for the Tide. Star interior freshman Jamychal Green, looking to fill the gigantic hole underneath left by departed Hendrix, had an unstellar performance with 8 points and 4 rebounds in 17 minutes, while the Tide’s other interior bodies mustered 19 points and 17 rebounds in 49 minutes. Coupled with the lack of production underneath was the team’s abysmal 6-of-31 performance from behind the arc for 19.4%. All eyes were on Ronald Steele, who seemed healthy enough and surprisingly was a much more effective rebounder (7) than scorer (2-of-5 for 5 points). Gee led the way with 21 points while Torrance put up 19.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 20-to-10 assist-to-turnover ratio

Arkansas [108] vs. Dillard [80]: While the Razorbacks have averaged over 100 points in exhibition play, allowing 80 points to a D-II school is a bit scary. Dillard shot almost 40% from the field and over 35% from three. With that said, the ‘Backs continued hitting on all cylinders with a 56.5% mark from the field. Michael Washington seems ready to pull the weight for the young Razorbacks with 19 points down low on 8-of-13 shooting and 10 rebounds in 20 minutes, while Courtney Fortson showed off why Arkansas fans were excited about his ability with an outstanding 10 assists to just 2 turnovers, along with 11 points for a double-double. Rotnei Clark, another freshman phenom for Pelphrey, also went off for 20 points on 5-of-9 shooting from long range and proved to be a very talented shooter from the charity stripe at 5-of-5 on the night. Overall, it looks like Arkansas will live and die by their offense this season, as is the case with most inexperienced teams.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas players not named Clark going 4-of-18 (22.2%) from three

Auburn [98] vs. Morehouse College [50]: This result should give the (very few) Auburn hoops faithful a good amount of hope, as the Tigers looked impressive in their first exhibition outing. Junior college transfer Tay Waller looked particularly exciting, especially considering his name is almost unheard of around the SEC. Waller drained 7-of-12 three-pointers (yeah, 7. of 12. Geez.) and recorded 27 points in 21 minutes (!). Quantez Robertson, one of the most unheralded but deserving players in the league, scored 19 points and surprisingly grabbed 10 rebounds to put up a double-double, as well as handing out 5 assists without turning the ball over. For every surprise (Waller) there is a disappointment, though, and that comes in the form of Korvotney Barber, who Auburn desperately needs a big season out of. Barber managed just 4 points and no rebounds in 19 minutes.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 45.5% effort from three

Florida [82] vs. Rollins College [53]: The Gators had a pretty uneventful and standard exhibition game against Rollins College, with a pretty standard outclassing in offense and defense. The remarkable thing was the even scoring, however, as nearly every squad member got on the board – and that the Gators were actually outrebounded 37-36. Parsons hit 7-of-11 shots from the floor for 16 points, while Calathes also put up 16 on 6-of-8 shooting as well as a 6-to-1 assists-to-turnover performance. Kenny Kadji has not performed well underneath, and this game was not an exception: just 4 points on 1-of-5 shooting and 5 rebounds in 17 minutes.
Stat of the Game: Nine out of ten Gators scoring

Georgia [93] vs. Albany State [56]: The Bulldogs relied heavily upon offense to down Albany State, although the squad stole the ball 18 times. ASU did, however, score efficiently against UGA – shooting 24-of-55 for 43.6%. Price led the Bulldogs with 19 points on 8-of-13 shooting and 7 rebounds, while Albert Jackson was not effective offensively in his outing back from the injury at 1-of-8 from the field for 4 points but pulled down a solid 7 rebounds. Brewer and Zlovaric pitched in 15 apiece.
Stat of the Game: Georgia forcing 29 Albany State turnovers

Kentucky [94] vs. Ouachita Baptist [72]: The Wildcats allowed OBU to hit 46.4% from behind the arc to keep the game respectable, but Kentucky solidly outrebounded and outscored their opponents for a safe win. After apparently gaining a big head, UK’s first exhibition star Josh Harrellson saw only 3 minutes while potential-ridden junior Perry Stevenson saw 35 and absolutely destroyed the stat sheet with 16 points and an unbelieveable 20 (…wow) rebounds. Oh yeah, and 7 blocks. Dude is talented. Gillespie wasn’t pleased, however, as Stevenson apparently missed several assignments and took his play on his own shoulders. One thing is for sure, though – with Stevenson and Harrellson beside SEC Player of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson, UK’s frontcourt has nothing to be concerned about. Meeks, who will be relied upon heavily to step up with the heavy guard losses for the Blue, led all scorers with 23 points and hit a perfect 8-of-8 free throws. Freshman Deandre Liggins performed adequately in the point guard role, handing out 7 assists to just 4 turnovers although he hit just 2-of-5 shots from the field.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 52-36 rebounding advantage

Mississippi State [67] vs. Oklahoma City [65]: The Bulldogs trailed almost the entire game and came from behind the defeat the two-time defending NAIA national champion OCU Stars. MSU’s defense was surprisingly lacking, despite the high quality of opponent, and ball-sharing was worryingly lacking. Ever-reliable superstar Jarvis Varnado neared triple-double status for the second consecutive outing with 12 points, 13 rebounds, and 8 blocks in 24 minutes. Freshman point guard Dee Bost served well, dishing out 6 assists to 3 turnovers and 11 points on 3-of-6 shooting from long range, while a pair of backup big men in senior Brian Johnson and sophomore Elgin Bailey combined for 19 rebounds and 16 points. Seems as if the Bulldogs are scarily short on effective and reliable role players.
Stat of the Game: MSU shooting 25-of-73 (34.2%) and allowing OCU to shoot 27-of-63 (42.9%)

South Carolina [75] vs. Kentucky Wesleyan [55]: In a surprisingly underwhelming performance, the Gamecocks didn’t truly dominate UKW, allowing their opponents to shoot (38.3%-35.4%) and rebound (44-41) similarly. In fact, USC was allowed 14 more free throws in the game, and that difference made up for an otherwise very close game. Devan Downey, one of the league’s elite players, led the Gamecocks in scoring with 19 points and 8 rebounds, but sacrificed his ball-handling with 4 assists to 3 turnovers. Archie added 9 rebounds, while Steed put in 12 points and 7 rebounds.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 85.2% from FT compared to UKW’s 46.2%

Tennessee [82] vs. Tusculum [51]: The Vols rebounded somewhat from a disappointing first exhibition game with a solid win here, although some key stats are remaining that should worry Orange fans. The Vols only shot 8-of-26 (30.8%) from long range – the heart and soul of the squad’s offense. In fact, the team was outshot from three (33.3%). The main key to the game was shots attempted, as the Vols simply controlled the ball more. Both star big men, Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism, posted double-doubles with a collective 25 points and 21 rebounds while super-freshman Scotty Hopson was mediocre at 1-of-4 from downtown for 11 points.
Stat of the Game: Vols forcing 25 Tusculum turnovers

Vanderbilt [84] vs. Alabama-Huntsville [65]: Yet another case of an SEC team failing to keep up the intensity on defense and relying on offense to win in exhibition play, as UAH actually outshot Vandy heavily from behind the line and nearly matched them on the boards. Leading the ‘Dores was ridiculously talented A.J. Ogilvy. For those who questioned him as my pick for SEC Player of the Year, how about these numbers: 25 points on 9-of-10 shooting and 7-of-7 from the charity stripe in just 19 minutes. Just wait until this guy gets ~30 minutes per game. Eyes are on Beal to step into Foster’s spot, and those shoes are enormous in comparison – Beal managed just 8 points and 2 assists in 25 minutes. Freshman Jeffrey Taylor made a name for himself, as he put up 16 points on 7-of-8 shooting in 20 minutes. With the collection of guards, it will be interesting to see if Ogilvy can fill up Vandy’s needs inside, because otherwise rebounding looks hard to come by.
Stat of the Game: Vandy’s +4 rebounding margin

Conference primer…

So, the conference primer I put together for my good friends at Rush The Court has been published – you should check it out!

While their ranking of fifth for the SEC is certainly understandable, I retain my hopes that the league will take a step up this coming season.

With the season quickly approaching (this weekend), I will be releasing predictions and such soon. I’ve been battling some pretty serious physical conditions, including a trip to the emergency room, so once I recover some more in-depth analysis will be up.

When it rains, it pours…

And now there’s more…Albert Jackson apparently suffered an ankle injury in Georgia’s exhibition tonight against Albany State.

Although little is known as the X-ray results haven’t been released yet, word on the street is that Jackson hit the ground hard and literally could put no weight on the foot.

Jackson really came on strong late for the Bulldogs and currently holds a starting position on the Bulldogs’ scarily thin front line. Georgia literally only has two froncourt players outside of Jackson, and with the departure of Takais Brown and Mike Mercer during the offseason, this team is seriously lacking in role players.

If Jackson is out for any length of time, this squad is headed closer and closer to being the worst team this league has seen in quite some time.

Another major development…

This time with Ole Miss. Trevor Gaskins, a sharp-shooting sophomore-to-be who tore his left ACL and will be sidelined for the remainder of the season.

Although Gaskins only averaged 5.9 points and 1.5 rebounds per game last season, he was a major component in the Rebels’ backcourt for this upcoming season, ranked third last year in 3-point percentage among SEC freshmen.

The pressure will now be on junior David Huertas to step up, work on his jumper, and pick up some slack. This will hurt the Rebels’ guard depth, and could hamper their hope for a solid season.

Exhibition recap

Here are some results and highlights from SEC exhibitions that have occured thus far…

Arkansas [103] vs. Campbelsville [58]: The Razorbacks shot 60.6% as a team from the field , along with 50.0% from outside the arc, to destroy visiting Campbelsville. Michael Washington dominated the paint, scoring a game-high 22 points in just 21 minutes on the floor, to go with 7 rebounds and 4 blocks. Stefan Welsh led all guards with 20 points on 8-of-11 shooting and 4-of-6 from long range and 3 steals.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas shooting 29.6% better from the floor than Campbelsville

#19 Florida [108] vs. Warner [49]: Warner was completely over-everything-ed in this game, as the Gators tromped in their first outing of the season. Dan Werner led the Gators with 17 points and 6 rebounds while Alex Tyus, an up-and-comer, notched a double-double with 16 points and 14 rebounds. Chandler Parsons had 6 rebounds while phenomenal point guard Nick Calathes racked up 9 assists.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 46.4% mark from three

Kentucky [111] vs. UM-St. Louis [53]: The Wildcats looks awfully impressive in this one, especially ju-co transfer Josh Harrellson. Harrellson put his name on the SEC radar screen with a surprising 21 points in just 16 minutes and 12 rebounds for a double-double, shooting 9-of-14 from the floor including a made three-pointer. Jodie Meeks proved his potential as an explosive scorer with a game-high 27 points on 7-of-13 shooting from behind the arc, while ever-reliable Patterson recorded 24 points and 11 rebounds for the team’s second double-double.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 63-23 halftime lead

Mississippi State [88] vs. Montevallo [59]: The Bulldogs needed to knock a little rust off from the offseason, but Varnado showed his offensive ability by nearing triple-double status in just 24 minutes with 17 points on 7-of-9 shooting, 12 rebounds, and 8 blocks, along with a surprising 4 assists. Ravern Johnson lived up to offseason hype with a game-high 19 points on 8-of-14 shooting from the field. A pair of freshmen also impressed, as Dee Bost shined as the starting point guard with 13 points and seven assists to just 3 turnovers, while Romero Osby played very well in the paint with 10 points on 3-of-5 shooting and 11 rebounds in just 13 minutes.
Stat of the Game: Mississippi State’s 62-37 rebounding advantage

Ole Miss [115] vs. North Alabama [81]: Where there was good news for Ole Miss offensively, there was bad news defensively. The Rebels gave up 81 points and allowed UNA to shoot 38.9% from three, but scored 115 on 56.8% shooting from the floor. Further emphasizing the lack of Rebel defense, the Rebs only stole the ball twice, as compared to UNA’s 11 steals. The scoring was very balanced for Ole Miss, with seven players scoring 11 points or more, led by DeAundre Cranston with 16 on 5-of-8 shooting, including 2-of-3 threes. Malcolm White led all rebounders with 9.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss’ 57-27 rebounding advantage

#14 Tennessee [87] vs. Indianapolis [73]: This was perhaps one of the more shocking exhibition results in the nation, as Indianapolis took a quick lead over the highly-regarded Vols. Unfortunately a problem that often plagues Bruce Pearl teams, the Volunteers simply didn’t have any sense of defense and allowed UI to shoot 48.1% from the field and 42.9% from long range along with a disappointing 20 turnovers to just 17 assists. Scoring was well-balanced as five squad members scored in double figures, led by standout Tyler Smith and freshman phenom Scotty Hopson on a collective 9-of-19 performance. New point guard Bobby Maze played well with 7 assists to just 3 turnovers.
Stat of the Game: UI shooting 14.3% better than Tennessee from three

Breaking news: Jai Lucas is transferring

According to CBSSportsline, Jai Lucas is transferring out of the Florida program.

This comes a huge shock considering the positive direction the Gators are headed in, but word on the street has it that Lucas is intimidated by the challenge for playing time. I’m not sure what else he expected considering Florida is just two years removed from back-to-back national titles. Talented players run away, truly GREAT players welcome the challenge and prove themselves.

Lucas averaged 8.5ppg, 1.7rpg , 2.2apg last season and shot an outstanding 43.5% from three-point range. Although the Gators have a wealth of depth, this certainly hurts their cause. In the big picture however, I don’t see the loss affecting the Gators’ season in a significant way.

2008-09 Preseason SEC Awards

So, here we go – my complete run-down of the season’s awards heading into the 2008-09 season.

SEC COACH OF THE YEAR:   BILLY DONOVAN (FLORIDA)

While both South Carolina and LSU should take major steps upwards this season with an almost entire roster returning, both programs will be welcoming in new coaches, and that always invites unpredictable results. Out of returning coaches, Donovan has the best situation on his hands with many players returning and an incredible recruiting class.

Donovan is 285-115 (.713) at Florida, which ranks as the second-highest percentage in the SEC behind Tennessee’s Bruce Pearl. Having recently won back-to-back national championships in 2005-07, Donovan has more than proven his ability as a head coach.

Donovan returns nearly every starter, including co-freshman of the year Nick Calathes, the league’s best overall point guard. With the cast and crew returning in 2008-09, along with Donovan at the helm, the Gators could shock the nation and make a surprise return to the Final Four next March.

SEC PLAYER OF THE YEAR:   A.J. OGILVY (VANDERBILT)

When I’m wrong, I go all out. A year ago, I was resisting the Ogilvy bandwagon that had built up steam amongst the national media. I held the belief that the Australian would struggle with SEC-caliber competition.

I was wrong.

Ogilvy easily ranked, as noted previously in the summer, as the most efficient player in the conference last season – as a freshman. He averaged over 17ppg despite playing alongside the league’s most prolific scorer in Shan Foster, while also chipping in almost 7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Without Foster on the roster, I would suppose that Ogilvy’s scoring will go somewhat higher as the Commodores will rely even more heavily upon the sophomore.

SEC FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR:   SCOTTY HOPSON (TENNESSEE)

Hopson comes into the Vol program as the highest-ranked freshman in the SEC per the media outlets. The Hopkinsville, Kentucky native is accurately named, with a huge leaping ability, and is a lethal scorer. Although Hopson will likely fill the shooting guard spot, he’s equally adept at small forward, known for his mid-range jumper. Hopson should be a definite one-and-done.

SEC DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR:   JARVIS VARNADO (MISSISSIPPI STATE)

This was as easy a selection as I’ve made in quite some time. Varnado led the nation in blocks per game a season ago at 4.6 per contest, while tying Shaquille O’Neal’s SEC single-season record in swats per outing. Varnado helped MSU rank second in the nation in both field goal percentage defense and blocks per game, and currently ranks as State’s highest field-goal-percentage shooter of all time. Look for Varnado to step up offensively in the wake of Rhodes’ graduation, and challenge for SEC Player of the Year honors.

ALL-SEC FIRST TEAM

A.J. Ogilvy (Vanderbilt – Center – Sophomore – 17.0ppg, 6.7rpg, 1.4bpg) – Ogilvy is a tremendously talented big-man who specializes in offense. He has a soft touch and uses his size (6′11″, 250lb) to his advantage defensively.

Nick Calathes (Florida – Point Guard – Sophomore – 15.3ppg, 5.2rpg, 6.1apg) – Calathes is in the running for SEC Player of the Year because of his versatility. He’s extremely efficient with the basketball and is one of the best passers the league has ever seen. His long-range shot is also solid, and his rebounding is phenomenal for his position.

Marcus Thornton (LSU – Shooting Guard – Senior – 19.6ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.3 spg) -Thornton returns as the league’s leading scorer, and its second-best three-point shooter. This kid is dynamic and explosive, with a touch for the basket only barely overshadowed a season ago by Vanderbilt’s Foster.

Tyler Smith (Tennessee – Power Forward – Junior – 13.6ppg, 6.7rpg, 3.3apg) – Smith was the league’s most versatile big man last year, shooting an impressive 37.8% from long range, 53.6% from the floor, and is among the SEC’s elite rebounders.

Patrick Patterson (Kentucky – Power Forward – Sophomore – 16.4ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.2bpg) – Patterson was named the SEC’s co-freshman of the year for 2007-08 after a tremendous season, providing a much-needed hole-stopper down low for the Wildcats. Patterson is among the league’s most reliable post players, producing big numbers nearly every single game.

Jarvis Varnado (Mississippi State – Center – Junior – 7.9ppg, 7.8rpg, 4.6bpg) – Producing ridiculous block numbers last year, including two consecutive 10-block performances, Varnado led the nation in swats per game last season. He stands as MSU’s all-time most efficient score, shooting over 60% in his career, and returns as the league’s leading rebounder. Expect Varnado’s offensive production to increase heavily with his minutes, and the big man to challenge for SEC Player of the Year.

Devan Downey (South Carolina – Point Guard – Junior – 18.4ppg, 5.3apg, 3.2spg) – Downey is a tremendously talented guard stuck in an underperforming program. Downey is the league’s second-leading returning scorer and still found the time and ability to hand out over 5 assists per game. Downey – possibly the SEC’s best defending guard – should have a huge season along with his fellow Gamecocks this year.

Chris Warren (Ole Miss – Point Guard – Sophomore – 15.8ppg, 4.4apg, 1.0spg) – Warren provided the Rebels, who approached last season with dampened expectations, a huge boost of energy both from his ability to find open lanes and hit treys when the formations fell apart. Warren is a special talent and has a bright future in Oxford.

ALL-SEC SECOND TEAM

Ronald Steele (Alabama – Point Guard – Senior – Redshirted) – There is no other player in the SEC that begs more questions than Ronald Steele does. When healthy, Steele is a tremendous asset in his maturity and decision-making. However, after two knee surgeries, doubts remain about his ability to return to form.

Alonzo Gee (Alabama – Small Forward – Senior – 14.5ppg, 6.8rpg, 1.5spg) – Gee stands as the SEC’s most energetic player, suffocating the ball while on the court on both offense and defense. While this certainly has its advantages, as it’s nearly impossible to guard his athleticism, it also brings turnovers and ball-hogging.

Dominique Archie (South Carolina – Power forward – Junior – 10.6ppg, 5.7rpg, 1.0spg) -Archie is poised for a breakout season alongside fellow Gamecock Mike Holmes, while Archie specializes in his athleticism on defense. Archie also provides a difficult matchup on offense, as he shoots a solid 34.3% from long range.

Chris Johnson (LSU – Center – Senior – 11.6ppg, 6.6rpg, 2.6bpg) – Johnson, although very lanky at just 210lbs at 6′11″, is dangerously potent defensively, ranking (a distant) second in the league last season. He does well what a big man should, which is score from under the basket and grab rebounds.

Dan Werner (Florida - Power Forward – Junior – 9.1ppg, 6.4rpg, 2.4apg) – Werner struggled to replace Joakim Noah’s hole alongside talented big-man Marreese Speights last season, but still rebounded and defended very well in the paint. Look for Werner to have a breakout season for the Gators in 2008-09.

Wayne Chism (Tennessee – Center – Junior – 9.9ppg, 5.8rpg, 1.3bpg) – Chism pales in the shadow of the team’s star Tyler Smith, but still serves his duty as an adept scorer and a potentially explosive big-man. Unfortunately, Chism will need to produce on a more consistent basis if he hopes to jump to first-team.

Korvotney Barber (Auburn – Power Forward – Senior – 13.8ppg, 6.9rpg, 72.0% FG) – Barber has about as much potential as any player in the league, but broke his hand early last season and was benched. Barber was leading the nation in field-goal percentage before the incident, and could be a huge anchor for the Tigers this year if he can stay healthy.

ALL-SEC FRESHMAN TEAM

Scotty Hopson (#5 nationally – Tennessee – Shooting Guard – 6′5″, 185lbs – Other offers from Texas, Cincinatti, Kentucky, Louisville, Mississippi State)

DeAndre Liggins (#28 nationally – Kentucky – Point Guard – 6′5″, 190lbs – Other offers from Memphis, Illinois, Kansas)

Courtney Fortson (#60 nationally – Arkansas – Point Guard – 5′10″, 175lbs – Other offers from Florida State, Tennessee, Kentucky)

Jamychal Green (#21 nationally – Alabama – Power Forward – 6′8″, 225lbs – Other offers from Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Marquette, Ole Miss, Virginia)

Dee Bost (#83 nationally – Mississippi State – Point Guard – 6′2″, 170lbs – Other offers from Virginia, High Point, Cincinatti, Florida State, Miami)

Kenny Kadji (#27 nationally – Florida – Center – 6′10″, 240lbs – Other offers from Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, Connecticut)

Howard Thompkins (#30 nationally – Georgia – Power Forward – 6′8″, 225lbs – Other offers from Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Florida, Florida State)

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

East

1. Tennessee   (25-5, 13-3)
2. Florida    (25-5, 12-4)
3. Kentucky   (22-8, 11-5)
4. Vanderbilt   (24-6, 9-7)
5. South Carolina   (19-10, 8-8)
6. Georgia   (15-13, 5-11)

West

t1. Alabama   (18-11, 8-8)
t1. LSU   (21-10, 8-8)
t1. Mississippi State   (21-10, 8-8)
4. Ole Miss   (17-13, 7-9)
5. Arkansas   (14-15, 5-11)
6. Auburn   (14-17, 3-13)

Please feel free to post comments and questions!!!!!

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Vanderbilt

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Morehead State
vs. Illinois
vs. Middle Tennessee State***
vs. Central Arkansas – Cancun Challenge (Nashville, Tennessee)
vs. Drake – Cancun Challenge (Cancun, Mexico)
vs. New Mexico/VCU – Cancun Challenge (Cancun, Mexico)***
vs. Illinois-Chicago
@ Georgia Tech
vs. Alabama A&M
vs. USF – SEC/Big East Challenge (Nashville, Tennessee)
vs. Tennessee Tech
vs. Furman
vs. Saint Francis (PA)
@ Massachusetts***
———-
@ Kentucky
vs. Georgia
@ Mississippi State
vs. Tennessee
vs. Florida
@ South Carolina
@ Auburn
vs. Alabama
vs. Ole Miss
@ Tennessee
vs. Kentucky
@ Florida
@ Georgia
vs. South Carolina
@ LSU
vs. Arkansas

The ‘Dores’ non-conference schedule will spin up the ol’ hype machine, but the team’s RPI will be very weak. I’ve got them going (24-6) and (9-7) and around a 4 or 5 seed in the tournament…possibly lower considering the RPI.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Tennessee

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Chattanooga
vs. UT-Martin
@ Middle Tennessee State
vs. Siena – Old Spice Classic (Orlando, Florida)***
vs. UNC-Asheville
@ Temple***
vs. Marquette – SEC/Big East Challenge (Nashville, Tennessee)***
vs. Belmont
vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
@ Kansas
vs. Gonzaga***
———-
@ Georgia
vs. Kentucky
vs. South Carolina
@ Vanderbilt
vs. Memphis
vs. LSU
vs. Florida
@ Arkansas
@ Auburn
vs. Georgia
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Ole Miss
@ Kentucky
vs. Mississippi State
@ Florida
@ South Carolina
vs. Alabama

The Vols are in for another huge season, and their fans are hoping for a deep run into the NCAA’s this year. I’ve got the orange going (25-5) and (13-3), and around a 2 or 3 seed in the tournament.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: South Carolina

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Jacksonville State
vs. Winthrop***
vs. USC-Upstate
vs. Gardner-Webb
@ College of Charleston***
@ Princeton
vs. Furman
vs. UNC-Central
vs. The Citadel
vs. Presbyterian
vs. Clemson
@ Baylor
vs. Wofford
———-
vs. Auburn
@ LSU
@ Tennessee
vs. Florida
vs. Ole Miss
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Kentucky
@ Florida
vs. Georgia
@ Alabama
@ Mississippi State
vs. Arkansas
vs. Kentucky
@ Vanderbilt
vs. Tennessee
@ Georgia

USC looks to challenge LSU as the SEC’s breakout team, predicted to finish (19-10) and (8-8) overall, although an extremely weak RPI could hold the Gamecocks to a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Ole Miss

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Arkansas State
vs. South Alabama***
vs. Utah – Glenn Wilkes Classic (Daytona Beach, Florida)***
vs. Marshall – Glenn Wilkes Classic (Daytona Beach, Florida)
vs. UCF
vs. Morgan State
vs. West Virginia***
@ New Orleans
@ New Mexico
vs. Alabama State
vs. Louisville – SEC/Big East Invitational (Cincinatti, Ohio)
vs. Florida A&M
@ Southern Miss***
vs. Nicholls
———-
@ Florida
vs. Arkansas
vs. LSU
@ Alabama
@ South Carolina
vs. Kentucky
@ Mississippi State
vs. Auburn
@ Vanderbilt
@ LSU
vs. Tennessee
vs. Georgia
@ Auburn
vs. Alabama
@ Arkansas
vs. Mississippi State

A solid performance for a team that loses nearly every frontcourt producer, the Rebels look at (17-13) and (7-9), likely enough for a 3 or 4 seed in the NIT, although a win in the league tournament would help the team’s cause.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Mississippi State

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Centenary
vs. Louisiana-Monroe
vs. North Alabama – Legends Tournament (Starkville, Miss.)
vs. Fairleigh Dickinson – Legends Tournament (Starkville, Miss.)
@ St. Bonaventure
vs. Washington State – Legends Tournament (Newark, N.J.)***
vs. Pittsburgh/Texas Tech – Legends Tournament (Newark, N.J.)***
vs. Alabama State
vs. Charlotte***
vs. South Alabama
@ Cincinatti – Big East vs. SEC Challenge
vs. Nicholls State (Jackson, Mississippi)
vs. San Diego
vs. Houston
vs. Western Kentucky
———-
@ Arkansas
vs. Alabama
vs. Vanderbilt
@ LSU
@ Georgia
vs. Ole Miss
@ Kentucky
vs. Arkansas
vs. LSU
@ Auburn
vs. South Carolina
@ Alabama
@ Tennessee
vs. Auburn
vs. Florida
@ Ole Miss

The Bulldogs are looking at (21-10) and (8-8) overall, another solid year and enough to ride alongside the Tigers as a 9 or 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: LSU

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Jackson State
vs. Alcorn State – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Northwestern State – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Centenary – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Troy – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Cal State Fullerton
vs. Grambling
vs. Nicholls State
@ Texas A&M
vs. McNeese State
vs. Washington State***
vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
@ Utah***
vs. Xavier
———-
@ Alabama
vs. South Carolina
@ Ole Miss
vs. Mississippi State
vs. Xavier***
@ Tennessee
vs. Arkansas
@ Georgia
vs. Alabama
@ Mississippi State
vs. Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
vs. Auburn
vs. Florida
@ Kentucky
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Auburn

The Tigers should take a huge step forward this season, with an extreme amount of experience and talent (although, the depth is lacking) in a weak Western division. I’ve got the Tigers going (21-10) and (8-8), good enough to squeak into the NCAA Tournament as a 9 or 10 seed with a solid RPI.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Kentucky

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. VMI
@ North Carolina
vs. Deleware State – FTLV Invitational (Lexington, Kentucky)
vs. Longwood – FTLV Invitational (Lexington, Kentucky)
vs. Kansas State – FTLV Invitational (Las Vegas, Nevada)
vs. West Virginia/Iowa – FTLV Invitational (Las Vegas, Nevada)***
vs. Lamar
vs. Miami***
vs. Mississippi Valley State
vs. Indiana
vs. Appalachian State (Louisville, Kentucky)
vs. Tennessee State
vs. Florida Atlantic
vs. Central Michigan
@ Louisville
———-
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Tennessee
@ Georgia
vs. Auburn
@ Alabama
@ Ole Miss
vs. South Carolina
vs. Mississippi State
vs. Florida
@ Arkansas
@ Vanderbilt
vs. Tennessee
@ South Carolina
vs. LSU
vs. Georgia
@ Florida

This would be a step up for the Wildcats overall at (22-8) and (11-5), although the conference record is slightly worse after losing so much backcourt firepower. That would be enough for a solid 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, considering their impressive strength of schedule.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Georgia

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. USC-Upstate
vs. Loyola-Chicago – NIT Season Tip-Off (West Lafayette, Indiana)
vs. Presbyterian
@ Western Kentucky***
@ Illinois***
vs. Virginia Tech
vs. Wofford
vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
vs. N.C. A&T
vs. Kennessaw State
vs. Missouri
@ Georgia Tech
———-
vs. Tennessee
@ Vanderbilt
vs. Kentucky
vs. Mississippi State
@ Florida
@ Alabama
vs. LSU
@ South Carolina
@ Tennessee
vs. Florida
vs. Auburn
@ Ole Miss
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Arkansas
@ Kentucky
vs. South Carolina

This would give the Dawgs a (15-13) and (5-11) record, again leaving UGA out of the postseason and escorting Felton out the doors.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Florida

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Toledo
vs. Bradley
vs. Southern Utah
vs. Syracuse – TBA (Kansas City, Missouri)***
vs. Missouri-Kansas City (Orlando, FL)
vs. Florida A&M
@ Florida State***
vs. Florida-Gulf Coast
@ UCF
vs. Georgia Southern
vs. Winthrop (Sunrise, FL)
vs. Stetson
vs. N.C. State
vs. Longwood
———-
vs. Ole Miss
@ Auburn
vs. Arkansas
@ South Carolina
@ Vanderbilt
vs. Georgia
@ Tennessee
vs. South Carolina
@ Kentucky
@ Georgia
vs. Alabama
vs. Vanderbilt
@ LSU
vs. Tennessee
@ Mississippi State
vs. Kentucky

The Gator sophs stand at (25-5) and (12-4), enough for a 2-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, depending on their performance in the league tournament.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Auburn

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Missouri State
vs. Mercer
vs. George Washington
vs. Bethune Cookman
vs. Dayton***
vs. Northern Iowa***
@ Xavier
vs. LA-Monroe
vs. Tuskegee
@ Virginia***
vs. Alabama State
vs. Alabama A&M***
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
vs. Tulane
———-
@ South Carolina
vs. Florida
vs. Alabama
@ Kentucky
@ Arkansas
vs. Texas-Pan American
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Ole Miss
vs. Tennessee
vs. Arkansas
vs. Mississippi State
@ Georgia
@ LSU
vs. Ole Miss
@ Mississippi State
@ Alabama
vs. LSU

The Tigers from the plains look to go (14-17) and (3-13), at the bottom of the SEC again. This should be Lebo’s final year at the helm.

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: Arkansas

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Southeastern Louisiana***
vs. UC-Davis
@ Missouri State
@ South Alabama
vs. Florida A&M
vs. Texas Southern
vs. UNC-Central
Austin Peay – Jim Thorpe Classic (Fayetteville, Arkansas)***
Stephen F. Austin – Jim Thorpe Classic (Fayetteville, Arkansas)***
vs. Northwestern State
vs. Oklahoma
vs. North Texas (North Little Rock, Arkansas)
vs. Texas
———-
vs. Mississippi State
@ Ole Miss
@ Florida
vs. Auburn
vs. Alabama
@ LSU
vs. Tennessee
@ Mississippi State
@ Auburn
vs. Kentucky
vs. LSU
@ South Carolina
@ Alabama
vs. Georgia
vs. Ole Miss
@ Vanderbilt

This puts the Razorbacks at (14-15) and (5-11), rebuilding after losing a significant amount of talent and without a postseason bid.

2008-09 Schedule breakdowns: Alabama

Some notes as we get started with these…

These non-conference picks take into account MANY things, including schedule placement (before or after a big game), home or away, loss of players, amount of leaders on the team, and even a bit of randomness as well. So if your team is predicted to lose a game that you believe they won’t – understand it’s not because I don’t think your team is better, but that every team loses games they shouldn’t because of random variables.

Conference-wise, my plan was to get a general feel beforehand about the record each team would achieve, and take that as an idea towards my picks, but not as a solid rule.

There may be (hopefully not) a few mistakes in games’ locations. If you catch one, please let me know and I’ll correct it. Also, I will not be predicting games in which at least the team’s opponent is one of two teams, such as in-season tournament finals and such.

Overall records reflect just regular-season games, and not postseason games nor the previously mentioned games in which the opponent isn’t at least one of two teams. Thus, they will not be entirely accurate in the amount of total games.

Lastly, please feel free to ask questions and give your predictions or opinions as comments, I’ll be sure to respond quickly!

Wins are in bold, losses are in italics. An asterisk is for toss-up games, and I did not classify SEC games as tossups because nearly every game would be one.

These for Alabama.

vs. Mercer
vs. Florida A&M
vs. Oregon – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. North Carolina/Chaminade – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. TBA – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. Alabama A&M
vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
vs. Texas A&M***
vs. Tennessee State
vs. Chattanooga***
vs. Yale
vs. Quincy
vs. Georgia Tech
@ Clemson
———-
vs. LSU
@ Mississippi State
@ Auburn
vs. Ole Miss
vs. Kentucky
@ Arkansas
vs. Georgia
@ Vanderbilt
@ LSU
vs. South Carolina
@ Florida
vs. Mississippi State
vs. Arkansas
@ Ole Miss
vs. Auburn
@ Tennessee

This gives the Tide an (18-11) record overall and (8-8) in the conference. UA would likely need a win or two in the SEC Tournament to bolster their NCAA resume, otherwise the squad would end up as a 1-2 seed in the NIT.