Georgia offers Anderson…

 

UGA offers Anderson

Mike Anderson, the miracle-worker from Missouri, has been offered more than $2 million per year by the University of Georgia.

Anderson, in my opinion, is a FAR better coach than Calipari. This would be a fantastic hire for Georgia…but stealing him away from the grasps of Memphis will be a tough task. This could become a bidding war, but the Bulldogs would have a massive upper hand in that arena.

The Kentucky Wildcats have a new coach…

Calipari to UK?

Or supposedly, although the media rumor bonfire has caught on heavily. Many various sources, including the Commercial Appeal, Star Tribune and even CBS Sports are reporting that the deal is practically done and John Calipari, the exalted coach of national powerhouse Memphis, will be coaching Kentucky next season.

Early reports have the deal rumored to be worth $32 million for 8 years, making Calipari the first $4 million/year collegiate basketball coach. These same rumors say that no announcement will come until the contract is actually signed (no Gillispie repeat), which would be in 24-48 hours.

A few of these rumors are truth. The Memphis Athletic Director has been quoted as saying Calipari wouldn’t be Memphis’ coach by the end of the day, so most of this seems to hold water.

Most of you know how I feel about Calipari. I’m simply not sold on his coaching ability outside of recruiting, and even that has not been solidified as the Memphis program practically recruits itself. However, some very high-profile recruits could be following Calipari to Kentucky, which would be a significant boost for the UK program.

Interesting stuff.

Grant officially accepts Alabama job…

Grant Accepts Job Offer

Anthony Grant, former coach of VCU, has accepted the job offer and will be coaching the Crimson Tide in 2009-10. This seems to be a decent hire, although I’m just not sold on Grant, who served as an assistant under Biilly Donovan at Florida before accepting the head job at VCU.

Grant has improved the situation at VCU, no doubt, but there’s just not enough evidence on the guy for me to be comfortable believing he is an SEC-caliber coach. The future shall ease my concerns, one way or another.

His numbers are certainly impressive, that’s for sure…he is 76-25 as a head coach and 45-9 in the Colonial Athletic Association. None of his teams have made it out of the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Nick Calathes testing NBA waters…

Nick Calathes, Florida’s star point-guard, has decided to test out his prospects in this year’s draft but not hire an agent just in case.

Definitely a good decision by Calathes, as he is immensely talented and it’s a good idea to get his name out there before next season. However, I strongly believe he will return next season because (A) his stock isn’t high enough, and (B) Florida is set for a big season next year which will increase his exposure and thus raise his draft status.

The Kentucky situation…

So, just two seasons after fans were clamoring over Gillispie, who had been hired after impressive turn-arounds at Texas El-Paso and then Texas A&M, the three-time Big 12 coach-of-the-year and reigning SEC co-coach-of-the-year has been let go.

The Wildcats this year missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 18 years, after finishing the regular season 19-12 and 8-8 against a weak Southeastern Conference. After jumping out to a 5-0 start to league play, the Wildcats collapsed and lost three-straight.

Inconsistency has been the trademark of Gillispie’s teams at Kentucky, despite sporting two of the nation’s best players at their respective positions in big-man Patrick Patterson and the SEC’s leading scorer Jodie Meeks. In addition, the Big Blue started one of the nation’s most gifted freshmen in Darius Miller.

So what went wrong, was it fair, and what happens now?

All too often coaches become successful at smaller and lesser-known institutions because of their ability to recruit. Average, or even poor, floor-coaches step into a program and vault it into respectability on their recruiting prowess alone. It seems as if this was the case for GIllispie.

Gillispie looked nothing but out of place and lost every moment he stepped onto the court for Kentucky. The Wildcats were beyond painful to watch this season for the lack of offense, which would stagnate for over five minutes a game nearly every outing. The program was clearly nosediving, and it was clearly Gillispie’s fault.

Taking the latter into consideration, the move to let Billy G. go seems to me a logical one. This is NOT to say that most UK coaches are treated fairly – they’re not. And I am not ignoring the fact that Kentucky fans place a suffocating amount of pressure on their head coaches – they do. Such was the case with Tubby Smith, the previous UK coach who has suddenly taken Big 10 cellar-dweller Minnesota into the limelight at the Big Blue have been tanking. HE, my friends, was treated unfairly. Gillispie however, was not.

I admire Kentucky fans. The pressure, the intensity, the passion – it’s all rather intoxicating. The very soul which is Kentucky basketball simply can’t be matched anywhere else in the nation, in any sport. Kentucky fans will rarely be happy with their head coach, and if they happen to be it won’t be for long. Whether it’s unfair, immoral or damaging is simply irrelevant. This is Kentucky basketball, and this is the experience of Kentucky basketball coaches. You either succeed and deal with it, or you don’t. Gillispie wasn’t able to do either.

As for the future, it is a rather uncertain time for Wildcat fans. Meeks, Liggins and Patterson have all suggested that their decision on their respective futures will hinge on today’s decision. There is also now a coaching vacancy to fill at one of the nation’s most premier men’s basketball institutions.

Early speculation leans in favor of John Calipari of Memphis. I, however, would quickly compare Calipari to Gillispie. It’s impossible to lose at Memphis – a ridiculous recruiting base, a very weak conference, guaranteed NCAA Tournament bids with seeds no less than three and the recruits are guaranteed exposure to both the national media and NBA scouts. The situation has won at Memphis, not Calipari. When his team’s talent and athleticism fails to win the Tigers ballgames, they lose. Calipari’s coaching doesn’t win the team games, and thus Mitch Barnhart – athletic director of Kentucky – would be sorely mistaken to hire him.

A better fit would be Travis Ford of Oklahoma State. This man has built Eastern Kentucky and Massachusetts from nearly the ground up, and has already vastly improved the situation at Oklahoma State in his first season there, taking the team to its first NCAA appearance since 2004-05. Collegiate basketball fans can only sit back and see if UK will make the right choice.

Though lots of things are in doubt in Lexington, this much can be for sure: the decision to release Gillispie was the right one.

Mitch Barnhart with nasty words for Gillispie…

As most expected, Kentucky today announced that it will not retain Billy Gillispie next season. What WAS surprising, though, was Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart’s words regarding the situation: “Kentucky fans deserve a coach who understands that Kentucky isn’t just another coaching job.” Harsh, man…harsh. Certainly seems to be some bad blood here.

So, of course this leaves a huge number of questions up in the air. Who is a possibility? Who isn’t? Billy Donovan of Florida has repeatdedly been quoted as listing Kentucky as his “dream job”, but released a statement today that he was not a candidate for the position.

VCU’s Anthony Grant has been a hot commodity on the coaching market, but reportedly has been confirmed as the new coach at Alabama.

The main name that I’ve heard is John Calipari of Memphis, whom is a decent/good recruiter but not much of a floor coach…much in the mold of Gillispie, in my opinion. One other name that has been mentioned is Oklahoma State’s Travis Ford.

Interesting stuff!

Malcolm White transfers and Gillespie…fired?

First, that which is NOT rumor…

Malcolm White has decided to transfer out of Ole Miss. Early reports state that White decided to leave for “personal reasons” and “wanted to be closer to his family”. White is from Louisiana, so the natural rumor is that LSU is interested…although I highly doubt that (A) This is true, considering his transfer just became public knowledge, and (B) Andy Kennedy would release him to an inter-divisionary school.

White, a 217lb. 6′9″  junior-to-be, averaged 7.2ppg, 1.4bpg, 5.7rpg and shot 50.0% from the floor. This is an absolutely tremendous loss for the Rebels, who’s front-court is already very thin. Strange timing from White as well, considering that Ole Miss brings back almost everyone and is/was poised for a very nice season in 2009-10.

As for Kentucky…

WHAS out of Louisville, Kentucky broke into Grey’s Anatomy just a while ago to report the official firing of Billy Gillespie. The UK sports department then released a statement that it was false. All signs are pointing to the ousting of Mr. Gillespie.

And this part is entirely and 100% rumor. I have heard through the grapevine that Billy Donovan of Florida will be announced as the new Kentucky basketball coach on Monday. Sources are “confirming” that Donovan is in fact checked into a hotel in downtown Lexington tonight. Hmm…

Interesting times…

More news…

Mostly UK stuff, and some regarding Mississippi State…

So apparently well-known Wildcat booster/fan Marc Haggard has gone public that Billy Gillespie has been fired and the official statement will be released tomorrow. In fact, the UK administration has organized a press conference tomorrow, so conventional wisdom would seem to agree with Mr. Haggard.

Haggard’s reputation is generally one of trustworthiness, but he has been wrong in the past. Regardless, tomorrow’s press conference should put the rumors to rest one way or another.

In the meantime, various UK players are giving their input. Patterson, the star inside guy, is apparently leaning towards returning, although Liggins and Meeks are both on the fence and are waiting for a decision to be made on the coaching situation. A.J. Stewart is expected to transfer regardless, Darius Miller is expected to return, and Michael Porter mentioned personal issues to consider in his decision.

As for Mississippi State, rumors have swirled since mid-season than immensely-talented but little-used forward Kodi Augustus was looking into transferring. After receiving a great deal of playing time in the final 1/3 of the season and becoming an instrumental part of the team’s end-of-the-year success, Augustus has decided to return to State for his junior season.

I’ll update the Kentucky situation after tomorrow’s press conference.

Kentucky carrying the SEC banner…

With last night’s losses by Auburn and Florida, Kentucky stands as the only SEC team in post-season play. The Wildcats play at Notre Dame tonight at 6 p.m. CT for their chance to represent the Southeastern Conference in the NIT Final Four.

Here are the recaps for the Florida and Auburn games…

#1-seed Florida [62] vs. #2-seed Penn State [71]

• Penn State shot 48.1% and held the Gators to 41.7% shooting
• Florida was outrebounded 35-25
• The two teams combined for just 21 free throw attempts
• Calathes dished out 7 assists with just 1 turnover
• Sophomore big-man Alex Tyus scored 15 points and grabbed a team-high 8 rebounds

Rebounding seemed like the major decisive statistic here, as Florida isn’t often outrebounded that heavily. The Gators didn’t compete well against the physical Penn State team, and trailed by a comfortable margin the majority of the game. This was a surprisingly disappointing season from the Gators, as Donovan was fully expected – at least by me – to challenge Tennessee for the East and at very least make the NCAA Tournament. The team is, however, poised for a big season in 2009-10.

#1-seed Auburn [72] vs. #3-seed Baylor [74]

• Auburn shot 39.1% and ley Baylor shoot 50.0%
• Baylor outrebounded the Tigers 38-31
• Auburn attempted 10 more shots than Baylor (64-54)
• Barber shot very poorly, especially for him (4-of-12), but finished with 11 points and 13 rebounds
• Waller shot just 2-of-8, 2-of-7 from three

Seems as if Baylor did a great job defending Barber/Waller and correctly predicted that the Tigers wouldn’t be able to create enough offense otherwise to keep up. The Tigers had a good season by their recent standards, although I strongly suspect that it was by default, as the SEC was down and Auburn was experienced. Lebo has saved his job for another year, but he should be gone next season.

Anthony Grant lands in Tuscaloosa…

VCU’s coach Anthony Grant landed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama [home of the Crimson Tide] this morning around 10 a.m. CT and is being formally interview for the job there.

Grant, of course, is a former Billy Donovan [Florida] assistant. He’s a good coach, but I’m not sold on his readiness for an SEC, or a BCS for that matter, position. He has done well at VCU, but BCS leagues are a completely different animal all together. His ties to the SEC and its recruiting bases will help, so we shall see if he can make the grade in Tuscaloosa – assuming he is hired.

What to look for…

Just giving you guys a heads-up on what to look for in the coming week(s)…

• I’ll be analyzing the cumulative SEC statistics for each team compared to the conference and the nation, and comparing those results with the success of the team this season and coming to a rough conclusion as to which statistics tend to be more important for success as a whole – obviously these readings will become more and more accurate and reliable as the years go on.
• I’ll be evaluating the performance of each school and coach as compared to what was expected of them and what each was capable of at the beginning of this season.
• I’ll be releasing, after post-season play – as the popular media should do, my picks for SEC Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, etc.
• Recaps of 2009 recruiting classes

And lots more to look forward to, so stay tuned!

Grant interviewed by another SEC team…

This time it’s Alabama. Actually, he hasn’t been interviewed YET but ‘Bama has received permission to contact VCU’s head coach, according to the Tuscaloosa News.

In other news, the Wildcats of Kentucky – where a coaching change is somewhat expected as soon as the Blue’s season ends – defeated 1-seed Creighton on their own home floor tonight 65-63, as a last-second Creighton trey missed long. Here’s the stats break-down…

• UK shot 46.8% from the floor, Creighton shot 37.3%
• Creighton attempted 19 threes, the Wildcats attempted only 8 (and Meeks  only two)
• Kentucky shot 78.9% from the charity stripe, Creighton shot 57.9%, both teams attempted 19
• UK’s Perry Stevenson had a great game, saw a game-high 38 minutes and responded with the game’s only double-double…13 points on 6-of-12 shooting, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks.
• Meeks led Kentucky (surprise) with 16 points but attempted only 9 shots…was a perfect 7-of-7 free throws (another surprise)

In close games, free throws are everything and that was clearly the case here. Nice to see someone other than Patterson or Meeks step up, as the Wildcats desperately need some more role-players. Kentucky will hit the road again and play at Notre Dame for a chance to travel to New York for the NIT Final Four.

As a recap of SEC teams in postseason play, 1-seed Florida will host 2-seed Penn State tomorrow at 8 p.m. CT for the bid to NYC, and the winner of that game will face the Kentucky/Notre Dame winner. 1-seed Auburn hosts 3-seed Baylor for the same privilege and the winner of that game will match up against the winner of San Diego State vs. either Davidson or St. Mary’s. If St. Mary’s defeats Davidson, Kentucky (a four-seed) will be the lowest-seeded team in New York City.

More coaching rumors…

This Kentucky/Gillespie rumor has created a media wildfire that has burned out of control. As A Sea of Blue reports, it seems as if the media has reached a consensus that Gillespie will be shown the door after just two seasons after his NIT run.

If this happens, what impact does it have for UK? After forcing out a very good coach who took UK to a Final Four in Tubby Smith, the Blue would have again forced out a coach after two seasons (granted, I can’t disagree with the Gillespie decision). How much job security does a future UK coach feel as if he has, and how much EXTRA pressure does this add to an immensely pressure-filled job? Not very, and a lot.

Gillespie has made comments that he “loves Kentucky” but obviously he has no bearing on the decision. No official comments at all have been issued by the athletic department, which means without doubt that there IS, in fact, a decision to be made.

I’m on the fence….at first I didn’t believe UK would have the guts to let Gillespie go, even after an embarassing year in Kentucky terms. But with the size and popularity of this rumor, I’m thinking he might be leaving.

In addition, rumor – and ESPN – has it that VCU’s Grant has once again been offered by Georgia. Some speculate that he may be holding out to see if he is offered the Kentucky job.

Nothing new regarding Alabama at the moment.

Kentucky plays Creighton tonight at 6 p.m. CT for their chance to join Florida and Auburn in the NIT’s Elite Eight.

Goof effort from LSU…

Fortunately LSU gave a good, tough fight throughout the game against the Tarheels and led late, but UNC eventually out-talented and out-performed the Tigers late in the game to take an 84-70 victory.

Here’s the stats recap from the game…

• LSU shot 45.3%, UNC shot 53.3%
• UNC was 46.2% from three, LSU was 39.1%
• UNC attempted 18 free throws, LSU attempted 6
• Thornton/Mitchell for LSU and Lawson/Ellington for UNC combined for 89 of the game’s 154 points

Not too much to look at here, although I’d be interested to see how this game would have played out if the foul calling wasn’t so warped in favor of the Tarheels. Both teams have distinguished and clear-cut stars, and UNC’s backups were simply more talented and more focused down the stretch.

LSU overachieved to an outstanding degree this season, and I think the rest of the SEC better look out for Trent Johnson, because he’s proven his worth in this conference. LSU was set up for a successful season, but so was USC and the Gamecocks failed to even make the NCAA Tournament. LSU loses a ton next season, but Johnson is set to compete long-term in this ever-competitive conference.

LSU battling #1-seed UNC…

The Tigers are trailing 38-29 against the Tarheels, after UNC closed the half on a decent little run. The Tigers are clearly not overmatched, but will need a stellar second half to take the SEC to the Sweet Sixteen.

No other SEC games today.

Another SEC squad falls…

Boy, the SEC isn’t doing anything to help its case that this hasn’t been a down year. Tennessee fell today in one of the most exciting games of the first round, although Florida dominated Miami in the NIT to move on to the quarterfinals. Florida won 74-60 and will now face Penn State in a chance to make the trip to New York City. Auburn is also up big in their NIT matchup aganist Tulsa 51-33 with about 11 minutes left in the game. Here’s the stats breakdown of both the Tennessee and Florida games.

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State

• The Aggies shot 56.6%, compared to Tennessee’s 42.9%
• OSU outrebounded UT 30-25
• Neither team had more than 12 turnovers
• Tennessee attempted 33 threes (made 11)

Not much interesting here, as it’s clear the Vols’ lack of defense cost them the game. Pearl has never been much of a defensive coach, but he needs to find the offense to cover that up next season. Overall it was a pretty disappointing season for Tennessee fans, as most expected them to win the East and challenge for a Final Four, but instead saw them struggle to a first-round loss.

Florida vs. Miami

• The Gators shot 52.0%, compared to Miami’s 41.1%
• Florida owned a 35-21 rebounding advantage
• Florida had 20 assists, to Miami’s 11
• Florida attempted 27 threes (made 10)

The Gators clearly simply outplayed the Hurricanes, up 48-32 at halftime. This was a surprising performance for Donovan’s squad, as I fully expected Miami to be a tough out. Penn State is a decent squad, but I’m picking the Gators.

54-38 Auburn now, with 8:16 left. With an Auburn win, they would face the Baylor/Virginia Tech winner.

One less SEC postseason team…

The only SEC team playing yesterday was Mississippi State, who got absolutely handled by Washington. Many picked State as an “upset special”, but Washington was ferocious on defense and Brockman had his way inside to life the Huskies to a 71-58 victory over the Bulldogs.

Some stats that stand out…

• Washington shot 43.5%, MSU shot 34.5%
• Washington outrebounded State 45-35 and attempted 4 more shots
• Brockman had 10 points and 15 rebounds, Varnado had 7 points and 3 rebounds, 4 blocks.
• Phil Turner had 5 more rebounds than Varnado
• Ravern Johnson and Dee Bost were a collective 4-of-23 from the floor

This was a pretty bad performance from MSU overall, and it shows the weakness of the four-guard lineup against physical teams. State heavily overachieved this year and should be favored to win the SEC next year with nearly everyone returning.

Tennessee begins play against Oklahoma State today in about half an hour and Florida faces Miami in the NIT at 6 p.m. CT.

LSU wins first-round game…

LSU survives a late-game push from Butler and wins 75-71. The Tigers will play the winner of North Carolina and Radford – which is to say, North Carolina. I personally think the Tigers have a great shot at taking down the Tarheels, especially without star point-guard Ty Lawson.

Rumor mill on full alert…

I want to provide a disclaimer in that everything in this post is simply speculation and rumor, nothing more. With that said…

The rumor with possibly the most legs is that Kentucky is secretly in talks with John Calipari of Memphis and has already decided to let Billy Gilelspie go. While I can certainly understand the logic here as Gillespie has been a miserable failure in terms of Kentucky basketball, it’s a bit surprising considering Gillespie is just one year removed from SEC Coach of the Year honors (although he didn’t deserve it) and jsut two removed from being hired. Seth Davis from Sports Illustrated says that a high-placed donor was quoted that, “it’s a done deal.”

I’ve also heard that Tom Izzo of Michigan State was offered and has accepted the job at Alabama. The Tide Times – granted just a blog, but could be legitmate – claims Izzo was offered 16 million for 8 years. Seems like a long contract for such a high-profile coach, but we shall see.

Not too much going on with the Georgia search that I’ve heard, but I’ll keep everyone updated…

NCAA Tournament – Round One

LSU has begun play against Butler in the NCAA Tournament’s first round to kick off the SEC schedule in the Big Dance. Despite only three teams making the cut, all three seem to be in a good position to pull off first-round wins.

LSU leads Butler at halftime, 35-29. The Tigers are surprisingly trailing on the boards, but are very hot from the field: 13-of-26 for 50.0%. Surprise! Marcus Thornton is leading the team, with 13 points but Tasmin Mitchell has continued his elevated play with 5-of-7 shooting from the field for 10 points. Mitchell seems to be the “X” factor for this team energy-wise and performance-wise. The Tigers desperately need someone other than Thornton to step up offensively, and it looks like they’ve found their guy. LSU is easily outplaying Butler in this game.

13-seed (I know, it’s terrible) Mississippi State faces 4-seed Washington later on this afternoon in a game that has become a popular upset-pick, as most everyone BUT the selection committee can apparently see how grossly under-seeded the Bulldogs are at a 13-seed. In comparison, last year’s 4-league-win, sub-.500 Georgia squad that won the league tournament also received a 13-seed.

In the NIT, the SEC received two of the four #1 seeds in Auburn and Florida. The Gators didn’t disappoint with an 84-62 raping of Jacksonville but Auburn struggled with Tennessee-Martin 87-82, although UT-Martin are a deceptively solid squad. Florida moves on to face Miami in what will be a tremendous challenge, as I was very impressed with their game against Providence. Auburn will play Tulsa, which very well could be an easier game than 6-seed UT-Martin.

3-seed South Carolina’s season is over after losing to 6-seed Davidson, who sports possibly the nation’s best shooter in Stephan Curry. I must say I am a bit disappointed with the coaching job of Darrin Horn – this was an extremely experienced USC squad who was more than adequately talented and yet the team still managed only a first-round appearance in the NIT. Organizing what was probably the SEC’s lightest non-conference schedule didn’t help.

4-seed Kentucky was up by 20 on UNLV at one point in the second half before the Runnin’ Rebels came storming back. The Wildcats have seemed unfocused ever since Billy Gillespie stepped foot on that campus, but the ‘Cats will move on to the NIT’s second round after a 70-60 win over UNLV. Another poor coaching job, as Kentucky is supremely talented this year. No excuse for missing the NCAA Tournament.

A bit surprising was Vanderbilt’s exclusion from the NIT – although it’s a bit understandable as the team’s quality wins are questionable.

More to come throughout the day.

SEC Tournament Championship Game: Live-Blogging

12:05 p.m. CT:   Well, this is it folks. The talking heads say the SEC only gets two teams in if Tennessee wins – although I’d argue otherwise. Some think MSU must win to make the NCAA’s. Interesting matchup today…here we go.

12:11 p.m. CT:   Nice start from MSU…silly rebound lost out of bounds from State.

12:12 p.m. CT:   Refs aren’t making ANY calls…score evens up 9-9. Varnado looking lazy to begin.

12:16 p.m. CT:   The Vols respond to a 9-0 MSU run with a 9-0 run of their own.

12:18 p.m. CT:   Tennessee looks more crisp…outrebounding State 10-4.

12:29 p.m. CT:   MSU looks very lazy…lucky to be down only by one at this point.

12:35 p.m. CT:   Interesting to me that MSU looks a bit flat and is being HEAVILY outrebounded (15-10) and is still up by three. Absolutely HORRIBLE foul call against MSU.

12:43 p.m. CT:   Varnado’s second foul…he looks very tired – lagging behind the entire field every possession.

12:50 p.m. CT:   Tennessee turnovers the only thing keeping MSU in this game.  This is a very messy, ugly game.

12:55 p.m. CT:   Neither team shooting free throws well.

1:00 p.m. CT:   Several questionable calls on both ends of the court. Smith nails a three to tie it up at halftime…36-36. State shooting better but has taken 10 fewer shots, being outrebounded by 6. Both teams turning the ball over profusely.

1:18 p.m. CT:   Bad offensive call against Tennessee. MSU seems to have a bit more energy this half, the Vols are outplaying Stateright now. It’s impressive MSU is still in this. 28-19 Tennessee advantage on the boards.

1:22 p.m. CT:   I can’t count how many times MSU has batted a rebound out of bounds and lost the ball. Four fouls on J.P. Prince with 16:24 left.

1:32 p.m. CT:   Yet ANOTHER MSU rebound lost out of bounds. Bad call…the ball was touched and Tennessee is given a free two points.

1:42 p.m. CT:   The game has seen a bit more energy…neither team can buy a free throw.

1:47 p.m. CT:   Sure looks like the refs are going to cost the SEC a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Every single call going Tennessee’s way.

1:55 p.m. CT:   MSU suddenly playing with purpose, up three with two Varnado foul shots coming up.

2:03 p.m. CT:   MSU up 61-57, two possessions with just over a minute remaining.

2:26 p.m. CT:   Mississippi State has won the SEC Tournament, and another bubble team’s bubble has burst. MSU has won their way with six-straight wins into the NCAA Tournament. Now, the question is – what seed do they receive? I would guess something like a 9 or 10.

SEC Tournament, Day Three: Live-Blogging

12:39 p.m. CT:   MSU/LSU underway – a good game…the Tigers leading by two. State playing above their heads, LSU playing typical LSU. It might take the Tigers slipping up or falling asleep for State to win, fouls racking up on LSU big-men. Chris Johnson and Quintin Thornton each with two.

12:46 p.m. CT:   State out to a three-point lead…refs getting petty on off-the-ball defense on both ends.

12:51 p.m. CT:   Petty calls from the refs…two fouls on three LSU players. MSU playing with a lot of heart.

12:52 p.m. CT:   MSU leads at the half 31-29. Here’s some halftime numbers…

FG%:   MSU (37%)   LSU (36%)
3PT%:   MSU (29%)   LSU (25%)
FT%:   MSU (69%)   LSU (75%)
Rebounds:   MSU (21)   LSU (21)
Fouls:   MSU (6)   LSU (10)
Steals:   MSU (0)   LSU (1)
Blocks:   MSU (3)   LSU (2)
Assists:   MSU (7)   LSU (6)
Turnovers:   MSU (3)   LSU (3)
Bench Pts:   MSU (5)   LSU (4)
Second-Chance Pts:   MSU (9)   LSU (2)

Little sticks out other than that these two teams are very evenly matched. State was owned on the boards in the previous two outings against the Tigers this season, and the teams are tied at the half. Should be an entertaining second half.

1:12 p.m. CT:   Chris Johnson with his third foul early in the second half, he’s benched. State’s threes aren’t falling, but they’re attacking the rim very well.

1:15 p.m. CT:   These hustle plays are all going MSU’s way – lots of effort from State.

1:19 p.m. CT:   What a NASTY dunk from Varnado. One of the biggest dunks I’ve ever seen. LSU just doesn’t seem able to keep up with State’s dynamic offense…both Ravern Johnson and Phil Turner have hit 25ish-foot threes. Marcus Thornton with his third foul, and that is becoming an issue for the Tigers as well.

1:26 p.m. CT:   Quintin Thornton to the bench with four fouls. Two others with three for LSU.

1:28 p.m. CT:   47-39 advantage MSU…State simply outplaying LSU at this point. LSU calls a timeout to regroup.

1:35 p.m. CT:   Four LSU players with 3 or more fouls with about 9 minutes left. Chris Johnson has four now, with 8:24 remaining.

1:38 p.m. CT:   MSU only 12-of-20 from free throw, not taking advantage of the many fouls from LSU. Varnado 3-of-10. LSU trying to come back, down only four with the ball.

1:44 p.m. CT:   This game could come down to free throws. LSU is hitting theirs, State is not. Three Tigers with four fouls now, as Marcus Thornton picks up his fourth.

1:49 p.m. CT:   Airball from Chris Johnson. Jumpers aren’t his thing. Temple with his fourth, four guys with four…4:02 remaining. LSU is running out of backups to put on the floor.

1:54 p.m. CT:   Jarvis Varnado, with today’s seven blocks, is officially the SEC’s single-season block record-holder. Surpassed LSU’s former all-star Shaquille O’Neal. MSU up 59-47 with 2:48…State’s looking good to advance to the tournament finals.

1:56 p.m. CT:   Marcus Thornton is done with five fouls at 2:36, and a technical from Graham. Absolutely needless, MSU looks to be putting this game away.

2:00 p.m. CT:   Varnado with 19 points, 7 rebounds, 7 blocks…impressive outing. Interesting that MSU has only made three 3-pointers and yet are up 15 on the SEC’s best team. De-bunks the myth of MSU as strictly a three-point shooting team.

2:04 p.m. CT:   MSU shockingly advances 67-57 over the league’s regular-season champions, LSU. State – the only lower seed to advance out of the second round – will meet today’s Auburn/Tennessee winner tomorrow at noon to decide who receives the league’s automatic bid.

This leaves a major question up in the air – with 22 wins and an SEC Tournament Championship Game appearance, do the Bulldogs receive an at-large bid if they were to lose tomorrow? My guess is yes.

SEC Tournament: Day Two Live-Blogging

12:03 p.m. CT:   LSU and Kentucky are about to start – my predictions are LSU by fivish, MSU by threeish, Tennessee by 7ish, and Florida by threeish. Strange how evenly matched LSU/Kentucky and USC/MSU seem to be personnel-wise.

12:24 p.m. CT:   LSU tried to pull away, Kentucky’s defense tightens and pulls within three. LSU’s offense looks messy – this team just has a LOT of talent. 7-0 run from Kentucky, holding LSU pointless for more than 3 minutes…how many times will the LSU guards drive the lane and lose control of the ball??

12:31 p.m. CT:   LSU’s offense is offensive. If the threes aren’t falling, how is this team going to score??

12:40 p.m. CT:   These guards from each team are insisting on driving the lane with shot-blockers lurking…

12:54 p.m. CT:   LSU leads at the half, 28-23…both offenses are struggling with the opponent’s defense. LSU just has more dynamic talent and better  shooting.

Okay, going to grab some food before the MSU/USC game…will be back in 15-30 minutes.

2:21 p.m. CT:   I return just as the LSU/Kentucky game has ended, and it did so about how I expected. The Tigers’ defense was able to contain Kentucky’s offense (Meeks) as he scored just eight points. LSU now will face the winner of the upcoming MSU/USC game.

Kentucky’s NCAA chances are questionable at this point. The Wildcats should be hoping for USC, Tennessee and Auburn to win today.

Interesting to note that the higher seed has won every game thus far in the SEC Tournament…we’ll see if it continues.

2:38 p.m. CT:   MSU seems to be intent on getting the ball to Varnado for a jumper and he’s missing them, USC shooting well, out to a 6-0 run. MSU turning the ball over profusely, Varnado with several blocks already.

2:44 p.m. CT:   MSU looks very bad, turning the ball over and making poor decisions. USC capitalizing, up 10-2.

2:48 p.m. CT:   Referees are not doing MSU any favors – USC playing very physically. 6 turnovers early for MSU.

3:05 p.m. CT:   MSU trimmed it within four, USC then pulled away by 10 again. This isn’t a pretty game.

3:12 p.m. CT:   I’ve never seen a man as big as Kodi Augustus hit threes like he does. USC is hitting EVERYthing, contested shots and all.

3:17 p.m. CT:   Four blocks for Varnado in the half – refs missing several calls on both ends. Fredrick and Archie both with more then ten points. At the half, USC leads 36-32.

3:40 p.m. CT:   MSU within one, 16:20. The threes are falling for State, but USC seems as if they can’t miss.

3:42 p.m. CT:   MSU takes its first lead of the game with a Turner dunk. USC has gotten cold and State seems to be handling the ball better.

3:53 p.m. CT:   Refs have called a NUMBER of questionable offensive foul calls on MSU…game tied at 48 with 11:02.

3:56 p.m. CT:   Seems like every break falls USC’s way – this is a very entertaining game.

4:06 p.m. CT:   MSU pulls out to a 7-point lead, its biggest on 53% shooting from behind the arc.

4:15 p.m. CT:   The two teams have switched positions, as it seems as if MSU is the one that can’t miss now. Great passing from State, good defense as the Gamecocks have struggled to score in this half.

4:23 p.m. CT:   South Carolina rebounding well in the final couple of minutes, pulled it within 73-68 with 51.2 seconds remaining. This game is going to come down to MSU’s free throws and South Carolina’s rebounding.

4:26 p.m. CT:   MSU responded with four straight free-throws, pulls ahead 77-68 with 42.3 seconds – State might be the first lower seed to advance.

4:29 p.m. CT:   What a dirty move from Downey…an intentional foul within 30 seconds while State leads by 11. Completely unneccesary. Followed by a punk move from Conrad…I’m quickly beginning to disrespect this team.

4:32 p.m. CT:   MSU takes the win, 82-68. The Bulldogs are on fire and now suddenly have 21 wins and are in the thick of the NCAA Tournament discussion. South Carolina will be sweating it out on Sunday, and we’ll see an LSU/MSU re-re-match tomorrow. If the double-overtime game in Starkville is any cue, it should be a very entertaining game.

Headed out, will return later in the evening.

7:22 p.m. CT:   Back after a short delay…Alabama struggling to close a 10-point gap against Tennessee. The Vols look to be completely outclassing the Tide at the moment.

7:26 p.m. CT:   Tennessee leads by 11 at the half. ‘Bama will need  a big comeback energy-wise in the second half if they want to compete in this game.

7:45 p.m. CT:   50-32 for Tennessee with 17:04 left…Alabama simply can’t match Tennessee’s talent, shooting or speed. The Tide just look absolutely lazy at this point. They’ve given up.

7:55 p.m. CT:   Almost six minutes into this half and Alabama has yet to score. Tennessee is looking down-right scary at this point…58-32 with 13:56 remaining. Ouch.

8:07 p.m. CT:   Okay this is boring…worst game of the tournament thus far. Tennessee up 65-46 with 8:43 remaining. Tennessee will be playing the winner of tonight’s Florida/Auburn game.

8:09 p.m. CT:   Jamychal Green fouls out with over eight minutes remaining – the big-man will need to learn how not to foul as he matures as a player. Although this is likely his last game as a freshman, he could be the second-best big-man in the conference next season.

Apparently the television lied to me…he has four and hit the bench.

8:14 p.m. CT:   Tabb marches through the lane and dunks on ‘Bama. I can’t count how many times that the Tide have allowed the Vols to drive to the basket unopposed – the team’s interior defense is non-existent.

8:16 p.m. CT:   HUGE alley-oop from Tatum to Smith…75-52, 5:10. Yikes…I imagine Donovan and Lebo both are worried after watching this game.

8:30 p.m. CT:   Tennessee advances 86-62 over Alabama…will play the upcoming Auburn/Florida winner. I’ll take Tennessee against either.

9:49 p.m. CT:   Close game at halftime, as Florida leads by one. Very even game stats-wise…either of these teams will be dominated by Tennessee, I believe.

9:54 p.m. CT:   The difference in a good team and a great team…great teams don’t make stupid mistakes. Stupid mistakes lose games, and both of these teams are making stupid mistakes, although the Tigers are making more of them – thanks to the embarassing coaching of Jeff Lebo. Neither of these teams are NCAA-worthy teams frankly, although Florida is moreso simply due to their level of coaching and chance of advancing.

10:03 p.m. CT:   Auburn has no outside presence in this game…all of their threes have looked awful.

10:41 p.m. CT:   Florida just handed Auburn the game…Florida fails to foul within 30 seconds, Auburn gets a wide-open dunk. HUGE mistake for the Gators – Florida just handed away their NCAA Tournament chances.

Liveblogging: SEC Tournament, Day One

11:22 a.m. CT:   Alright guys, so we’re coming down to it. Before everything starts, I’ll reveal my predictions. I’ve got Kentucky over Ole Miss by 7-10ish, MSU over UGA by 10ish, Bama over Vandy by 3-5ish, and Florida over Arkansas by a whole lot. Anyone else got any picks?

Side note: I have class from noon CT-12:50 p.m. CT or so and won’t be able to post.

1:59 p.m. CT:   I’m back from class, etc. As the Kentucky/Ole Miss game winds down – it went about as I expected, with a slightly larger UK victory. Looks like Kentucky will take the victory 71-58, and the Rebels are out of postseason consideration. Kentucky advances to meet LSU. Quick look at the stats…

Team FG%:   Kentucky (47%)   Ole Miss (44%)
Team 3PT%:   Kentucky (10%)   Ole Miss (29%)
Team FT%:   Kentucky (78%)   Ole Miss (79%)
Rebounds:   Kentucky (35)   Ole Miss (28)
Team Fouls:   Kentucky (15)   Ole Miss (18)
Team Assists:   Kentucky (13)   Ole Miss (7)
Team Turnovers:   Kentucky (10)   Ole Miss (18)
Team Steals:   Kentucky (9)   Ole Miss (3)
Team Blocks:   Kentucky (3)   Ole Miss (3)
Bench Points:   Kentucky (14)   Ole Miss (19)
Second Chance Points:   Kentucky (14)   Ole Miss (9)
Points Off Turnovers:   Kentucky (23)   Ole Miss (7)
Points In The Paint:   Kentucky (48)   Ole Miss (22)
Fastbreak Points:   Kentucky (8)   Ole Miss (2)

A few interesting tidbits here…the game was clearly decided by Ole Miss’ poor ball-handling, as the a:to ratio was 7-18 as compared to Kentucky’s 13-10. Points off turnovers certainly helped the Wildcats as well, 23-7. The pace was awfully slow stats-wise, as neither team made more than 4 baskets off of the fastbreak.

The LSU and Kentucky matchup will be interesting, as the teams are very similar. Both rebound VERY well and are big, phyiscal teams with one outstanding shooter. LSU won the previous matchup @ Kentucky, 73-70.

Next up…MSU/Georgia.

2:54 p.m. CT:   After a close few minutes, State is whoopin’ up on the East Bulldogs at the moment. 30-17 with 5:46. Georgia hasn’t scored in the past four minutes. MSU is hot, and when they’re hot that team is tough to beat.

3:07 p.m. CT:   Georgia just looks absolutely outclasses in this game, trailing 40-26 at halftime. Varnado nearly has a double-double at halftime – this MSU team is dangerous if they can stay this hot.

3:20 p.m. CT:   MSU leading 52-%-41% from the field at halftime, outrebounding the other Dawgs 18-14. Varnado has 10 points and 9 rebounds, Ravern Johnson has 12 points and surging sophomore Kodi Augustus has 10. Thompkins the only UGA player with double digits, with 10.

3:29 p.m. CT:   Georgia getting hot and draining some shots against MSU, and MSU is turning the ball over. Georgia within eight…pretty hook from Jackson.

 I will also be out of pocket after the MSU/Georgia game. Not sure when I’ll be back…

3:39 p.m. CT:   …and MSU pulls away. 57-42, 12:29…Georgia is going to need some serious runs to topple State at this point. MSU is playing with fire under their bellies.

3:51 p.m. CT:   Augustus with a career-high 19 points off the bench. Very impressive…this one getting ugly for UGA…68-48 MSU, 7:53.

4:08 p.m. CT:   MSU wins 79-60. Georgia just couldn’t keep up with State’s balance, as MSU had 10 players score and three over 10 points. State will pair up with South Carolina, who the Bulldogs beat by five at home earlier in the season. Should be a good matchup. I’m gone for a while, I’ll be back later on this evening.

Regular season done…postseason begins

Now that regular-season play has concluded, a TON (way more than usual) of SEC teams are fighting for their postseason lives heading toward the conference tournament. I’m going to break down each team, including their pros and cons, strength of schedule, RPI, etc to conclude their chances for each tournament, and what will be needed.

First, here’s a list of the SEC teams, their records, and their seeds for the SEC Tournament based on tiebreakers.

EAST

1. Tennessee (19-11, 10-6)
2. South Carolina (21-8, 10-6)
3. Florida (22-9, 9-7)
4. Kentucky (19-12, 8-8)
5. Vanderbilt (19-11, 8-8)
6. Georgia (12-19, 3-13)

WEST

1. #12 LSU (25-6, 13-3)
2. Auburn (21-10, 10-6)
3. Miss. State (19-12, 9-7)
4. Alabama (17-13, 7-9)
5. Ole Miss (16-14, 7-9)
6. Arkansas (14-15, 2-14)

Now I’ll break down each team’s performance thus far and their outlook for the postseason. A word about the RPI – it tends to lag a day or two, but this at least is a general idea. The quality of wins are determined by RPI, not record. Chances of etc..  means at LEAST the NIT or NCAA.

Alabama

Record:   17-13
SEC Record:   7-9
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #126
Best Overall Win:   @ [23] Tennessee (70-67)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [102] St. Joesph’s (58-48)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [181] Mercer (69-72)
Worst League Loss:   @ [85] Vanderbilt (74-79)

The Crimson Tide finished the regular season with a massive win on the road at Tennessee, but it’s looking like at least two victories in the conference tournament will be necessary to be considered for the NIT. While ‘Bama faces Vanderbilt in the first round, who provided the team with its worst loss of the conference season, the second-round matchup with Tennessee seems to be favorable considered the previous win on the road. The opening round will be difficult, however.

Chances of NIT:   20%
Chances of NCAA:   3%

Arkansas

Record:   14-15
SEC Record:   2-14
Last Ten:   1-9
RPI:   #139
Best Overall Win:   vs. [4] Oklahoma (96-88)
Best League Win:   vs. [126] Alabama (89-80)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [212] Missouri State (57-62)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (67-88)

The Razorbacks are one of the biggest head-scratchers in the conference. After jumping out to a 12-1 start with wins over #4 Oklahaoma and #7 Texas, the fell back to the level that most expected of them approaching the season, as nearly the entire team is underclassmen. The postseason is effectually impossible for the ‘Backs at this point without winning the conference tournament.

Chance of NIT:   <1%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

Auburn

Record:   21-10
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:    8-2
RPI:   #64
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (78-77)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [106] Virginia (58-56)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [181] Mercer (74-78)
Worst League Loss:   vs. [85] Vanderbilt (75-82)

The Tigers are on a serious tear, winning 8 of their last 9 games including a huge 16-point home win over #12 LSU. This certainly thrusts them from off-the-radar into the massive discussion of which SEC teams make the cut. Certainly Auburn looks like a more viable candidate than does either of the floundering East teams in Kentucky or Florida at this point. Auburn could certainly make a stronger argument for their inclusion with a Round Two win over either Florida or Arkansas. Auburn swept Arkansas but fell at home to the Gators earlier in the season 65-68.

Chances of NIT:   >99%
Chances of NCAA: 47%

Florida

Record:   22-9
SEC Record:   9-7
Last Ten:   4-6
RPI:   #48
Best Overall Win:   vs. [13] Washington (86-84)
Best League Win:   vs. [50] South Carolina (97-93)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [188] Georgia (86-88)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [17] Syracuse (83-89)

The Gators seem to be on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament based solely on having lost 3 of their last 4 contests. The team’s RPI is still very respectable and the record is solid, thus the team should be in a good position approaching the post-season.

Chances of NIT:   >99%
Chances of NCAA:   65%

Georgia

Record:   12-19
SEC Record:   3-13
Last Ten:   3-7
RPI:   #188
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (88-86)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [62] Virginia Tech (67-66)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [216] Loyola Chicago (53-74)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (70-75)

The Bulldogs are completely out of the postseason picture without winning the SEC Tournament as the 6-seed for the second year in a row. Although the ‘Dawgs have taken down two of the East’s better teams and have proven their ability to compete with talented competition, Georgia doesn’t seem to have much of a chance at the postseason.

Chance of NIT:   <1%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

Kentucky

Record:   19-12
SEC Record:   8-8
Last Ten:   3-7
RPI:   #80
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (77-58)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [26] West Virginia (54-43)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [188] Georgia (85-90)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   vs. [126] VMI (103-111)

The Wildcats seem to have played their way onto the wrong side of the bubble, having lost their last four consecutive games including one at home to the SEC’s worst team in Georgia. At least two wins would be required for the team to have a decent argument at this point, and road is tough as it runs through Ole Miss and then league-leading LSU.

Chance of NIT:   95%
Chance of NCAA:   40%

LSU

Record:   25-6
SEC Record:   13-3
Last Ten:   8-2
RPI:   #37
Best Overall Win:   @ [23] Tennessee (79-73)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [89] Washington State (64-52)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (59-65)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [28] Texas A&M (61-72)

The Tigers have long-since locked up a bid to the Big Dance, but have taken a pretty massive hit to their seeding after losing two-straight to Vanderbilt (at home) and at Auburn. If LSU can make the league tournament finals, they could receive as high as a 4 or 5 seed.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   >99%

Mississippi State

Record:   19-12
SEC Record:   9-7
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #83
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (80-71)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [54] Western Kentcky (95-67)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [207] Charlotte (64-70)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (85-87)

The Bulldogs have been possibly the streakiest team in the league, as they won 6 of their first 8 league games and then dropped 5 of 6, followed by two consecutive improbable wins to close out the regular season. It seems that the NCAA picture is a long-shot for State, but a couple of winnable games wait to open the SEC Tournament. If the squad can take wins from Georgia and then South Carolina, who fell to MSU 75-70 in Starkville earlier in the season, State would have 21 wins, a top 80 RPI and some semblence of an argument for the NCAA.

Chance of NIT: >99%
Chance of NCAA: 35%

Ole Miss

Record:   16-14
SEC Record:   7-9
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #81
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (81-65)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [137] Morgan State (78-70)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [162] Southern Miss (59-78)
Worst League Loss:   vs. [111] Alabama (69-90)

The Rebels seem to be out of the NCAA Tournament without a league tournament title, but the NIT is still very much within grasp. Having lost 3 of their last 4 does not help, but wins against Kentucky and LSU and possibly one more to make the final game could be enough to enter the NIT discussion.

Chance of NIT:   7%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

South Carolina

Record:   21-8
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:   6-4
RPI:   #50
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (70-69)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [75] Baylor (85-84)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [101] Charleston (80-82)
Worst League Loss:   @ [85] Vanderbilt (83-96)

The Gamecocks appear to be the only SEC team outside of LSU absolutely guaranteed an NCAA spot, although Tennessee is looking good as well. South Carolina has very few quality wins but very few quality losses as well and could edge up ot a 7 or 8 seed with a good showing in the league tournament.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   80%

Tennessee

Record:   19-11
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:   6-4
RPI:   #23
Best Overall Win:   @ [24] Siena (78-64)
Best League Win:   @ [48] Florida (79-75)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [111] Alabama (67-70)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [40] Temple (72-88)

The Volunteers seem to be set for an NCAA bid, although the low amount of wins makes things a bit more scary than they would likely to wish for. An impressive RPI and several big wins should keep the Orange safe on Selection Sunday. A run in the league tournament could even boost the Vols into a respectable 7 or 8 seed.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   91%

Vanderbilt

Record:   19-11
SEC Record:   8-8
Last Ten:   7-3
RPI:   #85
Best Overall Win:   @ [37] LSU (75-67)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [56] VCU (71-66)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [188] Georgia (57-61)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   vs. [168] Illinois-Chicago (55-74)

The Commodores seem to be the 200th SEC team right on the bubble near .500 in the conference, with around 19 wins overall and an RPI in the 80’s. While the RPI is weak for Vandy, the team’s performance lately has been impressive – three in a row, two of them over two of the top three teams in the conference. If the ‘Dores could win a couple in the league tournament – which would require wins over Alabama (who they defeated once already) and Tennessee (who they were swept by) – the team might have a shot at the NCAA Tournament.

Chance of NIT:   90%
Chance of NCAA:   20%

 

 

In closing, I’ll make an interesting observation. Through doing this, it’s become apparent that the NCAA bubble contains an inordinate amount of SEC teams. With that said, it’s almost a given that at least one or two of those teams will make an “improbable” run by winning two or three and make the cut.

The teams that need to prove themselves are, in order of most likely to make it to least…

-Tennessee – likely
-South Carolina – likely
——————————-
-Florida – probable
-Kentucky – unsure
-Auburn – unsure
-Miss. State – unsure
-Vanderbilt – unlikely

 

I will be live-blogging periodically throughout the day beginning Thursday and through Sunday, obviously in discussion about the SEC Tournament. Please feel free to join and comment as I blog – I will be sure to recognize and respond to each comment, and answer each question. Tell your friends!!

18 hours…and postseason outlooks

To all of my faithful readers, I know we’ve hit hard times. I quickly learned that 18 hours of classes plus a serious ongoing blog endeavor wasn’t particularly possible. However, here’s an update on the SEC teams and their chances at the postseason.

The Chance of NCAA is including the team’s perceived ability to win the SEC Tournament. Chance of NIT is in reference to that team’s chance of at LEAST making the NIT.

Alabama (16-13, 6-9) (RPI: #122)

Remaining games:
@ Tennessee (Sun, 3/8)

The Crimson Tide would need a win against Tennessee and at least one or two in the SEC Tournament to sniff the NIT.

Chance of NCAA: 2%
Chance of NIT: 15%

Arkansas (14-13, 2-12) (RPI: #124)

Remaining games:
vs. Ole Miss (Wed, 3/4)
@ Vanderbilt (Sun, 3/8)

The Razorbacks would need to win their final two games and at least two, maybe three in the SEC Tournament to even make an argument for the NIT.

Chance of NCAA: <1%
Chance of NIT: 2%

Auburn (20-10, 9-6) (RPI: #72)

Remaining games:
vs. #12 LSU (Sat, 3/7)

The Tigers have won 7 of their last 8 and are the hottest team in the conference at the moment not named LSU. Auburn has a very good argument for the NCAA, but that spot will be a battle with Tennessee, Florida and Kentucky. If the Tigers can pick up a win against big-time LSU or take one or two in the SEC Tournament, the squad should see the NCAA for the first time in a while.

Chance of NCAA: 40%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Florida (21-8, 8-6) (RPI: #50)

Remaining games:
@ Mississippi State (Wed, 3/4)
vs. Kentucky (Sat, 3/7)

The Gators are squarely on the massive SEC NCAA bubble, and their final two games could define their postseason tournament. Florida has lost 4 of their last 6, and the team can not afford a loss to MSU and the Kentucky game could be for the SEC’s final NCAA spot.

Chance of NCAA: 60%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Georgia (11-18, 2-12) (RPI: #205)

Remaining games:
@ Kentucky (Wed, 3/4)
vs. South Carolina (Sat, 3/7)

The Bulldogs will need another miracle to reach the postseason for the second-straight year.

Chance of NCAA: <1%
Chance of NIT: <1%

Kentucky (19-10, 8-6) (RPI: #67)

Remaining games:
vs. Georgia (Wed, 3/4)
@ Florida (Sat, 3/7)

The Wildcats are in a situation very similar to that of Florida’s, except that Kentucky has a worse RPI. With losses in 3 of their last 4 contests, Kentucky can’t afford to slip up against Georgia and still might need a win in Gainesville to secure an NCAA bid. A decent performance in the SEC Tournament wouldn’t hurt either.

Chance of NCAA: 55%
Chance of NIT: >99%

LSU (25-4, 13-1) (RPI: #24)

Remaining games:
vs. Vanderbilt (Wed, 3/4)
@ Auburn (Sat, 3/7)

LSU has nothing but NCAA seeding to worry about at this point. If the Tigers can pull off a sweep and win out, including the SEC Tournament, the team could be looking at a 1 or 2 seed.

Chance of NCAA: >99%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Mississippi State (17-12, 7-7) (RPI: #96)

Remaining games:
vs. Florida (Wed, 3/4)
@ Ole Miss (Sat, 3/7)

Mississippi State is possibly the coldest team in the SEC outside of Georgia, having lost 5 of their last 6. Once seeming NIT lock, MSU now seems to find themselves on the NIT bubble. MSU would need at least 3 or 4 more wins to eve be considered for a long-shot chance at the NCAA, and one or two more to be a safe NIT pick.

Chance of NCAA: 5%
Chance of NIT: 60%

Ole Miss  (15-13, 6-8) (RPI: #78)

Remaining games:
@ Arkansas (Wed, 3/4)
vs. Mississippi State (Sat, 3/7)

Ole Miss would nearly need to win the SEC Tournament, or least make the finals to even think of the NCAA’s. The NIT also seems like a longshot, although winning out in the regular season and a win or two in the SEC Tournament could put the Rebels in the discussion.

Chance of NCAA: 1%
Chance of NIT: 20%

South Carolina (20-7, 9-5) (RPI: #42)

Remaining games:
vs. Tennessee (Thur, 3/5)
@ Georgia (Sat, 3/7)

The Gamecocks appear to be the only SEC team outside of LSU to be a lock for the NCAA. If the squad won out, the team could pull out a 4 or 5 seed.

Chance of NCAA: 98%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Tennessee (18-10, 9-5) (RPI: #21)

Remaining games:
@ South Carolina (Thur, 3/5)
vs. Alabama (Sun, 3/8)

Tennessee seems to be safely the SEC’s third NCAA spot, although the team wouldn’t be well-advised to lose out. The Vols have an impressive RPI, however, so they should be shooed into the Big Dance.

Chance of NCAA: 75%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Vanderbilt (17-11, 6-8) (RPI: #104)

Remaining games:
@ #12 LSU
vs. Arkansas

The Commodores are a dark horse contender for both postseason tournaments, but a poor RPI will hold them back. If the ‘Dores can pull out a win in Baton Rouge and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament, they could have a solid argument for the NCAA. To make the NIT, two more wins could put them in contention.

Chance of NCAA: 20%
Chance of NIT: 45%