First Week Not Kind To SEC Basketball

While Arkansas exploded in its first game, it got brought down to reality by 20th-ranked Louisville. Several other SEC teams have lost already as well.

 One of those teams is 18th-ranked Mississippi State.

 The biggest surprise for the conference, however, was a positive one. Rotnei Clarke blew past SEC and Arkansas records on his way to a 13-of-17 performance from downtown to post 51 points against Alcorn State.

 Here are Week One’s awards.

 

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Rotnei Clarke (33.5 ppg, 2.0 stl, 66.7% 3PT)

 COACH OF THE WEEK: Trent Johnson (3-0 with win over Western Kentucky)

 FRESHMAN OF THE WEEK: Marshawn Powell (16.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.5 blk)

 

A breakdown of each team’s performance thus far follows.

 

Alabama (1-1)

The Tide joined the ranks of those who lost their home opener. Cornell, picked to win the Ivy League, came in and stunned Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.

 A youth-dominated team can be both a positive and negative thing. Short-term, it’s going to make the losses add up. Long-term, the team will have some depth and experienced talent.

 Such is the case for Alabama. JaMychal Green led the way against Cornell, notching the game’s only double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds.

 In the Tide’s second game, freshman Tony Mitchell came off the bench and put up 23 points on 10-of-14 shooting in just 24 minutes.

 Poor defense and rebounding is the theme early on. ‘Bama’s opponents are shooting a collective 45.0 percent from the floor and outrebounding the Tide by 2.5 rebounds per game.

 That must improve if Anthony Grant’s team wants to turn this ship around.

 

ALABAMA GRADE: D

Arkansas (1-1)

Jaws across the nation dropped when Arkansas’ box score against Alcorn State was released.

 Arkansas won 130-68—but that wasn’t even the impressive part.

 Rotnei Clarke shattered the SEC record on his way to shooting 13-of-17 from long range and scoring 51 points.

 The ‘Backs knocked down 53.3 percent of their threes and won by over 60 points. Some thought they might be able to give Louisville a run for their money.

 They did, for a while.

 Unfortunately for John Pelphrey, the Cardinals fired at will in the second half and cruised to a 96-66 victory.

 Clarke also came back to earth but still led his team in scoring with 16 points, this time on 3-of-7 shooting from three.

 Even in its blowout of Alcorn State, Arkansas barely outrebounded its opponent and was outrebounded by 13 against Louisville. Rebounding seems to be the weak area that needs the most attentions for the Hogs.

 

ARKANSAS GRADE: B-

 

Auburn (1-1)

The Tigers have had a tough early-season schedule and came out with a decent home win over visiting Niagara in their first game.

 A trip to Missouri State produced a somewhat predictable 73-62 loss, but one that won’t scar the RPI too badly.

 DeWayne Reed is the team’s most reliable scorer early on, as he led all scorers against Niagara with 24, despite an 8-of-20 shooting performance. Ball hog anyone? He followed that performance with a respectable 12 points in the Missouri State loss.

 Auburn, always a small team, is battling rebounding issues early on. The team outrebounded Niagara by one and was outrebounded by six against Missouri State.

 While the team won’t suddenly grow a few inches anytime soon, spacing and foot placement can make all the difference on the glass.

 

AUBURN GRADE: B-

 

Florida (1-0)

Florida’s first game against Stetson went about as well as Billy Donovan could have hoped for.

 Scoring was balanced, defense was aggressive, rebounding was impressive.

 There were some warning signs, though.

 Florida managed to hit just 1-of-13 treys for 7.7 percent. On top of that, Nick Calathes’ departure left its mark, as the Gators dished out just 11 assists to 18 turnovers.

 Only time will tell if the team’s shooting and ball-handling will improve.

 Alex Tyus recorded his first double-double of the season in the team’s first game, scoring 12 points on 6-of-8 shooting and 13 rebounds.

 

FLORIDA GRADE: A-

 

Georgia (1-1)

As was expected, the Bulldogs are looking fairly awful early on.

 Mark Fox’s new squad managed to just squeak by New Orleans at home by a 67-59 score before falling to Wofford 60-57.

 Trey Thompkins is leading the Bulldogs in nearly every respect. He’s averaging 19.5 points and 14 points per game with double-doubles in each contest.

 Offensive inconsistency is burdening this team, with excessive three-point misses the most obvious case. So far, Georgia has shot 30 three-pointers and made just six of those.

 

GEORGIA GRADE: D

 

#4 Kentucky (2-0)

After a less than outstanding start to the season with a 75-59 home victory against Morehead State, the Wildcats escaped certain ridicule on a step-back jumper from freshman John Wall with 0.5 seconds remaining to defeat Miami (OH) 72-70 in Lexington.

 Eric Bledsoe, another big UK freshman, came out firing in Kentucky’s first game, notching 24 points and seven rebounds—though he turned the ball over as many times as he hit the boards.

 Wall scored 19 in his debut in the Blue’s second game, while Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins both pulled down double-doubles.

 Rebounding and scoring don’t seem to be a problem for the ‘Cats. Defense, however, does. Their opponents are shooting a combined 42.5 percent from the floor and 38.0 percent from behind the arc.

 To keep out of trouble, John Calipari needs to put a little defense with his offense.

 

KENTUCKY GRADE: B

 

LSU (3-0)

Storm Warren and Bo Spencer have coupled to become the most surprising duo in the league thus far.

 Spencer, who averaged 3.4 points per game last season, has put up 61 points in the team’s first three games on 20-of-51 shooting.

 Warren has similarly come from nowhere to put up three double-doubles in three games.

 The team isn’t playing just nobodies either. Western Kentucky is a solid squad this year and gave the Tigers everything they could handle up until the end.

 So far, LSU seems to have few weaknesses all around and may very well surprise some teams in the Western Division this season.

 

LSU GRADE: A+

 

Mississippi State (0-1)

The Bulldogs were the conference’s first big disappointment, coming into the season ranked 18th only to lose to Rider 88-74. While Rider is likely one of the favorites in the MAAC, this was a tough loss for MSU.

 Hard to keep the effort up when players are dropping like flies. MSU is down to eight scholarship players after injuries have swept through the once deep lineup.

 Against Rider, the Bulldogs simply couldn’t keep the Broncs from draining threes. Rider brought down 62.5 percent of those treys and 50.8 percent of their shots from the arc.

 All-American Jarvis Varnado did everything he could. He’s the only starter in the SEC not to have missed a shot (8-of-8) and scored 22 points, claimed 14 rebounds, and blocked seven shots in the loss.

 If poor defense becomes a trend for State, the Bulldogs could be in for a disappointing season.

 

MSU GRADE: F

 

Ole Miss (2-0)

The Rebels have been balanced both offensively and defensively early on and quietly winning by big margins.

Murphy Holloway is looking to be a big part of the puzzle for the Rebels underneath, as he recorded the team’s first double-double of the season against UALR with 17 points and 10 rebounds.

Rebounding, as it was last season, will be a weakness for this squad. If Eniel Polynice and Holloway can continue to claim their share, this team could be competitive.

 

OLE MISS GRADE: A

 

South Carolina (2-0)

Call the Gamecocks the Rebels of the Eastern Division: quietly winning by large margins and getting the job done.

USC trumped Alabama A&M 88-50 and Georgia Southern 90-66. Nice wins, but lowly competition.

Devan Downey has been scoring well, especially in his first outing, where he put up 23 points on 7-of-9 shooting, though he turned the ball over four times.

Turnovers seem to be an issue for Darrin Horn’s squad early on, as the team is averaging 20.5 per game—a sign that Downey needs to focus more on his team and less on scoring.

 

SOUTH CAROLINA GRADE: A

 

#10 Tennessee (2-0)

Watch out nation: Scotty Hopson has arrived.

After a disappointing freshman season, he’s exploded onto the SEC scene early on. He’s shooting 10-of-13 from behind the arc and averaging 20.5 points per game. Legit numbers.

As a team, the Vols are excelling. They broke a school scoring record in their second game, against UNC-Asheville, where they stomped their way to a 124-49 win. That’s right, a 75-point margin.

They shot nearly 60 percent in that game and handed out 34 assists.

Anyone doubting that Tennessee will compete for the SEC title yet?

 

TENNESSEE GRADE: A+

 

Vanderbilt (1-0)

Vanderbilt played absolutely no defense in their 95-73 victory over Lipscomb, and I suppose they didn’t have to.

Their scoring was dominated by Jeffery Taylor, who led the game with 20 points on 8-of-13 shooting, and Jermaine Beal, who scored 17. Taylor also grabbed seven rebounds.

Perhaps to avoid injury, A.J. Ogilvy was held to just 19 minutes but still recorded 13 points and nine rebounds in that time.

If Ogilvy’s numbers increase against real opponents and the team’s defensive effort improves, Vanderbilt could be a dangerous team.

 

VANDERBILT GRADE: A-

SEC Exhibition Basketball Comes To A Close

Only a few exhibition games remain for the Southeastern Conference, as most teams have played at least one.

Here’s a recap of those played since Nov. 2, my last update of them. The rest will come tonight and tomorrow, while the regular season begins at the end of this week.

I’m adding a new feature into all of my stories…a grade for each team’s performance. It will be entirely subjective (obviously) and will focus on how well the team should have done compared to how it actually performed. It’s A-F and will use pluses and minuses.

The game reviews will be in chronological order.

 

Alabama 81, Montevallo 53

Five Tide players scored in double-digits, led by JaMychal Green’s double-double of 18 points and 12 rebounds. Green started out slow in the first half, bogged down by foul trouble, but came out swinging in the second. All of his 18 points came in the second half.

 Grant’s team excelled in both facets of the game. They shot 48.1 percent from the field and held Montevallo to 33.3 percent. Alabama also out-rebounded the Falcons 47-31.

 Alabama won’t be a three-point heavy team this season, but this game showed some sign of hope. While the squad only attempted 13 shots from behind the arc, they connected on 5 of them for 38.4 percent.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: JaMychal Green (18 pts, 11 rbs, 3 blks)

STAT OF THE GAME: Alabama’s +16 rebounding margin

 ALABAMA GRADE: A

 

Tennessee 97, Lincoln Memorial 58

Tennessee cooled off offensively a bit in their second exhibition game and went for (insert sarcasm here) just 97 points. The team excelled once again in most every way from the very beginning, shooting 45.5 percent from the field and holding Lincoln Memorial to just 33.3 percent shooting.

 The Vols shared the ball well with 20 assists, but turned it over 17 times. Good thing they forced 30 turnovers. Rebounding also wasn’t close.

 Scotty Hopson may be finally living up to his 2008-09 preseason hype, as he once again led the Vols offensively.

 In two games, Hopson scored 40 points on 15-of-19 shooting (78.9 percent for those of you counting at home) and was 6-of-8 (75.0 percent) from three.

 Chism had a disappointing showing, shooting just 4-of-12, though he grabbed eight rebounds. All-American Tyler Smith has been a bit understated in the team’s preseason, as he scored 11 points and claimed just two rebounds in 16 minutes.

 The team is looking for a point guard, and Maze didn’t exactly impress with four assists to three turnovers. Goins wasn’t much better with the same amount of turnovers and five assists.

 Ball-handling continues to be a problem for the Volunteers, but may be less so if Hopson can continue his rampage.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Scotty Hopson (20 pts, 2 rbs, 77.8% FG, 66.7% 3PT)

STAT OF THE GAME: Lincoln Memorial’s 30 turnovers

 TENNESSEE GRADE: A

 

Arkansas 102, LeMoyne-Owen 69

Arkansas somewhat rebounded from a less than impressive outing in its first exhibition game to explode offensively against LeMoyne-Owen. There were some startling numbers, but let’s look at the good first.

 The ‘Backs brought down 56.1 percent of their shots, held their opponents to 33.7 percent shooting, and recorded 19 assists to just 10 turnovers. The team also blocked 10 shots and stole the ball 16 times.

 The offense was balanced as well…five Razorbacks scored in double-digits.

 Rotnei Clarke led the charge, shooting 8-of-12 for 21 points. Freshman Marshawn Powell continues to look like a beast early on, as he matched Courtney Fortson with 18 points. Powell also grabbed 9 rebounds.

 All-SEC forward Michael Washington was his typical self, scoring 11 points and 7 rebounds in just 22 minutes.

 Now the scary part.

 Arkansas was outrebounded by LeMoyne-Owen—using the name here again for emphasis—52-40. A minus-12 rebounding margin against LeMoyne Owen. The team also shot just 33.3 percent from behind the arc, ending exhibition competition at 32.3 percent from long-range. Not a good sign.

 Finally, Pelphrey’s squad managed to hit just 66.7 percent of their free throws.

 The ‘Backs have the potential and the talent, but have some gaping holes to fix before becoming a truly competitive team.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Rotnei Clarke (21 pts, 2 rbs, 66.7% FG, 66.7% 3PT)

STATE OF THE GAME: Arkansas’ minus-12 rebounding margin

 ARKANSAS GRADE: B-

 

South Carolina 78, Kentucky Wesleyan 55

The Gamecocks weren’t exactly dominating in their first exhibition matchup, but it was a solid outing for the squad.

 The scoring was balanced, as five Gamecocks scored in double-digits and the team out-shot its opponent by about five percent. The big difference was from behind the arc, as USC shot 42.1 percent and held Kentucky Wesleyan to 26.1 percent.

 Sam Muldrow led the Gamecocks offensively, hitting five of his nine attempts and scoring 17 points along with seven rebounds. Dominique Archie also recorded double-figure points (11) and claimed eight rebounds. All-SEC Devan Downey had a poor showing—1-of-7 shooting for six points and three rebounds—though he did manage seven assists.

 All-in-all a decent performance from USC, though the 13:18 assist-to-turnover ratio needs to improve as does the 59.3 percent free-throw shooting.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Sam Muldrow (17 pts, 7 rbs, 55.5% FG, 100.0% 3PT)

STAT OF THE GAME: USC’s 42.1% effort from behind the arc

SOUTH CAROLINA GRADE: B

 

Auburn 87, Miles College 40

The Tigers had a surprisingly solid outing in their first exhibition game, smoking Miles College after a sluggish first half. Auburn outscored its opponent 51-17 in the second half.

 The three-point shooting was the standout benefit for the Tigers. The team shot 14-of-32 from long-range, good for 43.8 percent on the back of Tay Waller’s 5-of-7 effort from that distance. Waller scored a game-high 15 points, while two other Tigers scored in double digits.

 Auburn out-rebounded their opponents (THAT’S a new phrase) by the biggest margin of any SEC team thus far (what?) in exhibition play, 55-35. Losing Robertson, ball-handling was expected to be a weakness, but it didn’t show in this game, with 20 assists to 14 turnovers.

Free throw shooting was abysmal for the War Eagle, though: 42.9 percent. The team actually shot better from behind the three-point arc than it did at the charity stripe. Yikes.

Auburn might surprise a few people if it can continue to rebound well and keep up its precision from long-distance.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Tay Waller (15 pts, 1 rbd, 62.5% FG, 71.4% 3PT)

STAT OF THE GAME: Auburn’s +20 rebound margin

AUBURN GRADE: A+

 

Kentucky 117, Clarion 52

Any John Wall dissenters suffered a setback when he went off in his first outing for 27 points on 10-of-14 shooting and nine assists against four turnovers.

 Whether he can be nearly as effective against real opponents is another issue for another day…Wall showed he has the potential to be a star.

 After struggling in its first exhibition game (in which it was without Wall), Kentucky left no doubt against Clarion. The Wildcats heavily out-shot, out-rebounded, and out-everythinged Clarion from tipoff.

 Kentucky shot 59.2 percent from the field while holding Clarion to 23.8 percent shooting. The team improved its performance from long-range significantly, to the tune of 8-of-16 (50.0 percent). The Blue won the rebounding battle 47-34.

 Six Wildcats scored in double-digits, and Wall wasn’t the only player with at least 20. DeMarcus Cousins recorded 20 points on 9-of-12 shooting and grabbed six rebounds.

 Even Kentucky’s mediocre free-throw shooting improved to a very impressive 25-of-30 (83.3 percent) mark.

 Too bad not every team is Clarion, eh?

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: John Wall (27 pts, 4 rbs, 71.4% FG, 9 ast)

STAT OF THE GAME: Kentucky’s 2.25 assist-to-turnover ratio

KENTUCKY GRADE: A

 

Ole Miss 102, Auburn-Montgomery 62

The Rebels’ debut featured a slightly ironic turn of events. Most expect the Rebels to struggle with rebounding this season due to a lack of size and front court depth, but they out-rebounded their opponents by 16. What was assumed to be a strength—ball-handling—seemed to be a massive weakness. Ole Miss managed just six assists and turned the ball over 19 times.

 Warren, early on, looks to be a Ronald Steele twin. If you’ll remember, Steele was an outstanding pass-first point guard for Alabama before massive knee injuries. When he returned, he was a potent scoring threat but had lost his touch as a true point guard.

 Warren’s stats from the team’s exhibition outing says something similar. He scored 22 points on 8-of-14 shooting but dished out just two assists. Those two assists led his team though. Ouch.

 The final score also hides an ugly little fact: Ole Miss was trailing at the half, 38-35.

 The second-half blowout somewhat made up for the ugly start, though. The Rebels should continue the effort on the boards, but the ball movement must improve if they want to earn a post-season bid.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Chris Warren (22 pts, 2 rbs, 57.1% FG, 50.0% 3PT)

STAT OF THE GAME: Ole Miss’ 0.32 assist-to-turnover ratio

OLE MISS GRADE: B-

 

Georgia 87, North Georgia 53

For the Eastern-Division Bulldogs to be facing such low expectations, Fox managed to impress in his first outing.

This game was another ho-hum beat-down of a lesser opponent. The catch here is, though, that Georgia will need a miracle to even reach .500 this season.

Travis Leslie, who showed flashes of greatness last season as a freshman, led the game with 21 points on 9-of-13 shooting and recorded five rebounds. Rebounding wasn’t an issue for the Bulldogs, as two players had at least eight boards.

Georgia only attempted 14 treys, and instead opted to get the ball to the paint. This was pretty effective—the team shot an eye-popping 60.7 percent from the field, compared to 35.7 percent from three.

Free throw shooting was also an issue. As a team, UGA shot 56.0 percent from there—worse than they did from the field.

Last year, Georgia took down Albany State by 37 points in exhibition play on its way to a 12-20 record.

With that said, this wasn’t a bad showing for UGA.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Travis Leslie (21 pts, 5 rbs, 69.2% FG, 2 stl)

STAT OF THE GAME: Georgia’s 30 offensive rebounds

GEORGIA GRADE: A

 

Mississippi State 90, Georgetown-KY 70

The Bulldogs seemed to have reason to worry after Georgetown (KY) led 19th-ranked Louisville at the half and lost to the Cardinals by just 12 points.

They were wrong.

State never trailed in the contest and only felt the heat early in the second half, when the Tigers pulled within 7. MSU ended both halves on huge runs and thoroughly outplayed its opponent.

Kodi Augustus, the big-man who sparked State’s run through the 2009 SEC Tournament, notched a double-double with 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting and 11 rebounds. All-American Jarvis Varnado led the team with 17 points on a perfect 7-of-7 effort and fell just shy of the squad’s second double-double with nine rebounds.

Point guard Dee Bost handed out eight assists and shot 5-of-10 for 14 points.

As a team, State pulled down a very impressive 56.6 percent of its shots, but managed just 26.3 percent of its three-pointers. This was no doubt in large part to Barry Stewart’s 0-of-7 effort. Long gone are the days when Stewart was a freshman who shot nearly 40 percent from behind the arc.

This is opposed to the team’s first exhibition game, where it shot 43.3 percent from that range. MSU seems to be a very versatile, deep squad.

Ball-handling was suspect against Georgetown, however. The team had 16 assists to 16 turnovers. Rebounding wasn’t better, as MSU managed to just tie its opponent with 33 boards.

An encouraging performance for the Bulldogs, overall.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Kodi Augustus (16 pts, 11 rbs, 66.7% FG, 2 ast)

STAT OF THE GAME: MSU’s 26.3 percent effort from behind the arc

MISSISSIPPI STATE GRADE: A-

 

Florida 104, Webber International 53

Florida has opened some eyes in its preseason action, winning its two games by a total of 90 points. Perhaps this team won’t miss Nick Calathes quite as much as they should.

The new star in town is named Kenny Boynton, and he’s dominated both exhibition games. Boynton scored 25 in this one on 6-of-11 shooting, also grabbing three rebounds.

With Walker doing a fine job thus far of replacing Calathes’ ball-handling and Boynton stepping into the scorer’s outfit, this team might step into the three-ring circus known as the SEC Eastern Division and compete for the title.

As a team, the results were no less impressive. The Gators notched a 53.7 percent mark from the floor, outrebounded their opponents by 18, and shot 41.7 percent from behind the arc.

Turnovers were the only noticeable flaw for Florida, giving the ball up 21 times. They did, however, force 26 turnovers.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Kenny Boynton (25 pts, 3 rbs, 62.5 percent 3PT, 54.5 percent FG)

STAT OF THE GAME: Three Gators with at least seven rebounds

FLORIDA GRADE: A+

 

Alabama 61, Augusta State 55

When the threes aren’t falling for the Crimson Tide – which will be often this year due to a thin backcourt – the defense isn’t there for the team to be able to win competitive ballgames.

This was the closest any SEC team came to losing an exhibition game, and for that very reason. ‘Bama managed just 29.4 percent from three and allowed Augusta State to shoot 38.9 percent from the field. Alabama lost the turnover battle 23-18 as well.

Two facts were encouraging for the Tide, though.

First, free-throw shooting was solid. The squad hit 90.9 percent of its shots from the charity stripe. With that kind of mark, close late-game situations will always be winnable.

Secondly, scoring was balanced. Seven players scored at least six points, but only one in double-digits. That honor went to JaMychal Green, who shot 5-of-7 to score 12 points and grab a team-high five rebounds. His defense is still lacking, though, as he didn’t register a single block or steal.

This serves as a pretty big wake-up call for Alabama. If the defense doesn’t improve, this team is going to have a long season.

 

PLAYER OF THE GAME: JaMychal Green (12 pts, 5 rbs, 71.4 percent FG, 100.0 percent FT)

STAT OF THE GAME: Alabama with more turnovers, less blocks/steals than opponent

ALABAMA GRADE: D+

2009-10 SEC Basketball Previews: Alabama

Time to start rolling out the previews for all 12 SEC teams, starting with Alabama. It’s good to be on top of the alphabet, I guess. (Personal note: I wouldn’t know; last name starts with a “W”. Always annoyed me in school)

Also wanted to note that all of my articles are linked to my Bleacher Report profile, which I will link to my “About Me” section shortly.

The Crimson Tide faithful have shed the shadows of Mark Gottfried’s mediocrity and are hoping for a resurgence to being once again regarded as a powerhouse in the SEC Western Division, and the conference as a whole. Most respect new head coach Anthony Grant and his job at VCU, and most expect him to turn the Tide’s recent history around.

But just how fast will that U-Turn be?

If Alabama hopes to compete for the postseason, it will need a quick one.

The Tide slid a long way from their 2003-04 Elite Eight appearance. Since then, the team has won 20 games just twice, flirted with the .500 mark in 2007-08 (17-16) and went 18-14 last year. Despite some talent on the roster, turbulence and a lack of consistency played a major role in the team’s struggles.

Gottfried resigned mid-season, shortly after star point guard Ronald Steele announced he was leaving the team and implied being mistreated by his former coach.

This year’s team is without a four-year mainstay in do-it-all Alonzo Gee. As a guard, Gee could shoot it, was a great dunker but was most adept at driving to the basket. Many comparisons were drawn between Alonzo and recent Mississippi State standout Jamont Gordon, and they were largely appropriate. Gee’s strength and aggressive attitude provided the squad with some much needed leadership that will be difficult to replace in 2009-10.

Heavily inefficient shooter Brandon Hollinger and under-talented big-man Yamene Coleman join the list of ‘Bama players who don’t return.

Filling their spots will be a set of three three-star players (per Scout): two freshmen and a Junior College transfer.

• Tony Mitchell (#38 overall, #7 SF, 4 stars)
  Mitchell is the highlight of the class. He’s 6′6″ and 185lbs, quick and athletic. He can shoot and drive the basket and should see a great deal of playing time this year.
• Ben Elben (#28 PG) - This 6′, 185-pound point guard is the kind of leader Grant needs to take the reigns of this year’s Alabama squad. Elben fits the hole that Steele left very well, as he is known for his intelligence, patience and leadership. Though he isn’t exactly quick in either his running or shooting, his presence alone should help ‘Bama organize its offense better. Expect Elben to push for a starting position from day one.
• Charvez Davis (SG) - Junior College transfer known for his three-point accuracy. Should see some playing time if he lives up to his shooting potential.
• Chris Hines – Hines is 6′7″ and 225 pounds, a thick “small forward” who can shoot. A Junior-College All-American, Hines is three years removed from high-school and should help ‘Bama with their lack of depth in the paint.

Returning, though, is a crew that is moderately talented and – with good coaching – could turn 2009-10 into a respectable year.

• Senario Hillman (6′2″ – 192lbs – Junior – SG – 12.9ppg – 2.5rpg – 42.6% FG – 28.7% 3PT) – Hillman came out of high-school with a reputation for lights-out shooting, but hasn’t provided on the college court. Hillman is a combined 24.6% shooter from three in his career, despite attempting over 101 long-range shots for the Tide last year, easily the most on the team. He’s a great on-ball defender, ranking third-best amongst league returnees in steals-per-game, but must refine his shot and give Alabama some semblence of a deep threat. Should start.
• JaMychal Green (6′9″ – 220lbs – Sophomore – F/C – 10.3ppg – 7.6rpg – 51 blks – 71.0% FT) – Green is easily the Alabama player with the biggest upside. He is ultra-reliable, is the 6th-best returning rebounder in the conference and is a formidable shot-blocker. If he can manage to take care of the ball – he was the most apt to turn it over on the team a year ago – he will prove to be one of the SEC’s most reliable and efficient big-men. Should start.
• Mikhail Torrance (6′5″ – 210lbs – Senior - PG – 10.0ppg – 2.3rpg – 31.9% 3PT – 88.4% FT) – Torrance is a very versatile guard who is particularly adept at handling the ball – 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. His shooting is average at best, but he’s a threat in the late-game with outstanding numbers from the charity stripe as he leads all returning SEC players in that category. Should start.
• Justin Knox (6′9″ – 240lbs – Junior – PF – 5.7ppg – 5.1rpg – 48.3% FG – 22 blks) – Knox has the physical gifts to become a superstar in the Southeastern Conference. He’s a big, physical body down low who is one of the league’s most efficient rebounders. With a little more aggression, Knox could be a surprise force down low for the Tide. Should start.
• Anthony Brock (5′9″ – 165lbs – Senior – PG/SG – 5.6ppg – 1.3rpg – 44.9% 3PT – 32 stl) – Brock is a ticking time-bomb, in the best possible way. He has a rare finesse that was under-utilized by Gottfried that should blossom under Grant. He’s the team’s best long-range shooter – by a long shot – and is the league’s most efficient returning on-ball defender. Brock could be the “X” factor for Alabama this season. Could start.
• Andrew Steele (6′3″ – 215lbs – Sophomore – PG – 3.3ppg – 1.9rpg – 1.53 A/TO – 73.0% FT) – The brother of departed superstar Ronald Steele, Andrew has a lot less potential. Andrew was an average shooter in his freshman campaign and only excels in ball-handling, where is he exemplary. A solid backup point guard.
• Demetrius Jemison (6′8″ – 240lbs – Senior – PF – 3.1ppg – 3.1rpg – 52.8% FG – 62.5% FT) – Jemison is a big body underneath and is a serviceable player, but certainly not one that seems to be challenging for a starting point anytime soon. Jemison is a back-to-the-basket guy and a very efficient rebounder. There are some questions as to his health this season, but I have yet to find anything to verify that.

Grant has a history of success at VCU, where he went a combined 76-25, including a Colonial Athletic Association league title each of the three years at the helm of VCU. Now returning to the league he once served as an assistant in, hopes are high in Tuscaloosa he can bring that level of success to UA.

He’s got the pieces to surprise this year.

Schedule Breakdown

• Cupcakes: Jackson St. (H), North Florida (H), LA-Monroe (H), Samford (H), Mercer (H), Tennessee St. (N), Toledo (A)
• Real Games: Cornell (H), Providence (H)
• Marquee Matchups: Baylor (N), Purdue (H), Kansas St. (N)
• Opposite Division: Vanderbilt (H), Tennessee (H), Florida (H), Kentucky (A), Georgia (A), South Carolina (A)
• Predicted Result: (18-12, 7-9), No postseason
• Analysis: Just one true road game in the non-conference portion of the slate might hurt the Tide in the SEC.

What’s Returning

• Points: 69.67% (6th – SEC Avg: 73.81%)
• Rebounds: 66.02% (10th – SEC Avg: 75.80%)

While Mississippi State is the prohibitive favorite to take the SEC Western Division crown this year, the Tide seems to be underrated in discussion for that #2 spot. While Ole Miss tends to be offered that title, Grant’s Alabama team very well could knock the Rebels off of that stoop and challenge for an NIT berth.

2008-09 SEC Floor General Award

After the big move, I continue this series, which is nearing its completion. This category obviously focuses on talented point guards in the league, based on assists-per-minute. However, as I research more I’ve noticed this statistic is hugely dependant on the shooting prowess of the players around the point guard.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.  

 

The winner is…

 

NICK CALATHES – Florida, Overseas – 5.19 – Last Year: 5.31
Calathes was one of the greatest true point guards this league has seen in a long while. Calathes was a spectacular leader on and off the court, could handle the ball with extreme care, was a dead-eye shooter and possessed an outstanding knowledge of the game. Florida’s chances at making noise this season dropped drastically when Calathes decided to go pro in Greece.

The others…

2. Courtney Fortson – Arkansas, Sophomore – 5.53 – Last Year: N.A.
The Razorbacks would have been absolutely lost without Fortson a year ago. Fortson has energy to spare and is a solid shot, but may be the league’s only player who can compare his awareness to that of Nick Calathes as a freshman/sophomore. Fortson could stand to be a bit less selfish, as he took too many shots at too small a percentage, but he looks to be one of the league’s future stars.

3. Kevin Galloway – Kentucky, Senior – 5.77 – Last Year: N.A.
Galloway saw a decent amount of minutes last season, and started five times, but isn’t a talented enough all-around player to be a true roleplayer for the Kentucky Blue. His ability to see the open man is impressive, however, and he should serve as a legitimate option off the bench at point-guard for Kentucky next season.

4. DeAndre Liggins – Kentucky, Sophomore – 6.00 – Last Year: N.A.
Liggins had one goal as a freshman: Get the ball to Meeks. With Meeks gone to the NBA and a couple of much-hyped ball-handlers recruited into the program, Liggins will likely be playing backup in 2009-10. Complementing that fact was Liggins’ poor shooting and aptitude to turn the ball over, as this stat was fluffed big-time by Meeks’ 40% three-point percentage.

5. Chris Bass – LSU, Sophomore – 6.42 – Last Year: N.A.
Bass’ assist-to-turnover ratio in his limited minutes were nothing short of jaw-dropping, but he did nothing else well. He was a liability as a shooter, and shyed away from physical contact. Bass has a lot of improving to do before he can contribute heavily for the Tigers.

6. Zac Swansey – Georgia, Transfer – 6.92 – Last Year: 10.24
Plagued with off-the-court issues, Swansey and Felton agreed that a transfer would be best for his future playing opportunities. Georgia lost a very competent ball-handler, but a ball-hog who didn’t bring down nearly as many shots as he should have.

7. Twany Beckham – Mississippi State, Sophomore – 7.10 – Last Year: N.A.
Recently discovering two bone spurs, one in each hip, Beckham learned he won’t be able to play this season. This will give the red-shirted sophomore an opportunity to work on his aggression and ball-handling, both of which need to improve. Beckham played point for State’s “second team” as it was known, and that spot should fall to either Stewart or Turner this season.

8. Devan Downey – South Carolina, Senior – 7.28 – Last Year: 6.96
Most hoops fans across the nation know about Downey at this point, as he is small, quick and agile along with serving as a massively potent leader for the Gamecocks. Downey shoots well and makes excellent decisions, and this stat sagged almost entirely due to his surrounding cast and not himself.

9. Dee Bost – Mississippi State, Sophomore – 7.29 – Last Year: N.A.
Perhaps one of the most all-around impressive freshman in 2008-09, Bost seems destined to be a star in the SEC. Bost showed senior-like leadership, was one of the league’s best ball-handlers and shot competently. Regardless of who you are, an assist-to-turnover ratio of more than 1.5 is impressive for a freshman.

10. Dustin Ware – Georgia, Sophomore – 7.44 – Last Year: N.A.
Ware would certainly be nominated for a most underrated SEC freshman award, as his performance was very, very solid in every aspect of the game. Ware is a very good shooter and impressive decision-maker, and handles the ball very well – especially for a sophomore-to-be. Ware should be a talented anchor for Fox’s upcoming Georgia squad.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…

 

1. Festus Ezeli – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 360.00 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Malcolm White – Ole Miss, Transfer – 255.67 – Last Year: N.A.

3. Sam Muldrow – South Carolina, Junior – 182.00 – Last Year: 53.88

4. Kenny Kadji – Florida, Sophomore – 106.50 – Last Year: N.A.

5. Yamene Coleman – Alabama, Left Team – 91.50 – Last Year: 51.00

6. Austin Steed – South Carolina, Junior – 89.80 – Last Year: 29.00

7. Mike Holmes – South Carolina, Junior – 71.08 – Last Year: 51.25

8. Albert Jackson – Georgia, Senior – 55.36 – Last Year: 37.07

9. Elgin Bailey – Mississippi State, Junior – 48.33 – Last Year: 212.00

10. Lance Gouldbourne – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 46.43 – Last Year: N.A.

2008-09 SEC Boardmaster Award

Quickly moving on to rebounding, one of the most important categories on the list.

This stat will point out the most efficient glass-cleaners in the league, those who aggressively and accurately are able to grab their share of rebounds on a consistent basis.

This ranking is almost exclusively big-men, and height and good hands tends to help.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.  

The winner is…

 

BRIAN WILLIAMS – Tennessee, Junior – 2.96 – Last Year: 3.22
Williams is one of the more underrated players in the league, and certainly the most underrated rebounder. Get this number…assuming Williams’ numbers would increase proportionally, if he were to play 40 minutes he’d average 13.7 rebounds per game. Oh, and he shoots over 50 percent from the floor and is a solid post defender as well. Williams will never be a star, but is probably the single-best role-player in the league.

The others…

2. Michael Washington – Arkansas, Senior – 3.06 – Last Year: 3.39
Washington was one of the biggest surprises of the SEC last year, and likely would have challenged for SEC Player of the Year had Arkansas not tanked. He nearly has no weakness other than ball-handling, and is an absolutely dominating presence in the paint offensively.

3. Korvotney Barber – Auburn, Graduated – 3.09 - Last Year: 3.85
Barber was one of many players in the league last year who had to nearly carry their teams on their respective backs, and he did so in impressive fashion. He had, at times in his collegiate career, led the nation in shooting percentage but suffered from the same drawbacks as most big-men: poor free-throw shooting and ball-handling.

4. Jarvis Varnado – Mississippi State, Senior – 3.19 – Last Year: 3.67
Varnado is often billed as a one-trick pony, but he is anything but. Varnado, with his extreme length and huge hands, is a phenomenal rebounder, efficient scorer and will break the all-time NCAA record for blocks, assuming he avoids injury. This guy changes the game in many, many ways and on the glass is but one of them.

5. Wayne Chism – Tennessee, Senior – 3.20 – Last Year: 3.97
Chism is my vote for more underrated player in the SEC, as his efficiency numbers are absolutely through the roof for a big-man. He handles the ball very well, has a very effective jump-shot and is solid from the charity stripe, and is even a great defender. There’s not much this guy can’t do with great skill.

6. Delwan Graham – LSU, Left Team – 3.22 – Last Year: N.A.
Graham was probably the single-most potential-filled freshman from a year ago, and noone knew it because of Thornton. Graham, as a big-man, had a 1.00 assist-to-turnover ratio. That’s an admirable number for any player, much less a big-guy. Needless to say he shot over 50 percent from the floor and rebounded like crazy. Shows what a waste off-the-court issues can be for a young, talented players.

7. Jamychal Green – Alabama, Sophomore – 3.29 – Last Year: N.A.
Green played up to his expectations, as he entered the league as one of the most heralded incoming freshmen. To say Green had little surrounding support is a drastic understatement, but he still managed to pose a huge threat offensively and was a great rebounder. If he can manage to hold on to the ball a bit better and work on his decision-making, he has a shot at the next level.

8. Murphy Holloway – Ole Miss, Sophomore – 3.33 – Last Year: N.A.
Holloway is a rare breed. He’s one of few big-men that can honestly claim he is among the best on both offense and defense. His hoops instincts are obvious, and his scoring/rebounding prowess is formidable. He should, however, work on his face-up game.

9. Chris Johnson – LSU, Graduated – 3.49 – Last Year: 4.52
Johnson was much like Mississippi State’s Varnado in that he was underweight but extremely long with big hands, seeming to be able to leap up and just wiggle his arms until a rebound fell into his grasp. Johnson was more of a rebounding/blocking specialist, as he wasn’t very adept offensively.

10. Trey Thompkins – Georgia, Sophomore – 3.54 – Last Year: N.A.
Thompkins is extremely versatile, shooting nearly 40 percent from long distance. His decision-making is awful, however. He has the tools to be an absolute star for Fox’s Bulldogs, but he’s got some refining to do. It would be difficult to find someone as purely talented on both ends of the floor as he, though.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…

 

1. Robert Wilder – South Carolina, Senior – 28.60 – Last Year: 7.00

2. Chris Warren – Ole Miss, Junior – 22.24 – Last Year: 15.73

3. Walter Hodge – Florida, Graduated – 19.00 – Last Year: 14.50

4. Brandon Hollinger – Alabama, Graduated – 17.75 – Last Year: 15.69

5. Will Bogan – Ole Miss, Sophomore – 17.27 – Last Year: N.A.

6. Rotnei Clarke – Arkansas, Sophomore – 16.86 – Last Year: N.A.

7. Erving Walker – Florida, Sophomore – 16.40 – Last Year: N.A.

8. Dustin Ware – Georgia, Sophomore – 14.87 – Last Year: N.A.

9. Michael Porter – Kentucky, Left Team – 13.89 – Last Year: 13.28

10. Anthony Brock – Alabama, Senior – 12.96 – Last Year: N.A.

2008-09 SEC Pinball Award

So my titles are creative, what of it?

This award will cap off the shooting awards, as it focuses on the players who are most aggressive with the ball and least afraid to draw a foul. This, obviously, is calculated by minutes per free throws attempted.

This category is unique in that it has absolutely nothing to do with shooting, and everything to do with less tangible aspects of the game. A player who gets to the line a lot tends to…(A) Handle the ball a great deal, (B) Be very physical and fearless, and (C) Be a post player. This category can help single out potential leaders for teams as well as identify young players who understand the game well.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless. 

 

The winner is…

 

A.J. OGILVY – Vanderbilt, Junior – 4.08 – Last Year: 3.91
Ogilvy places as the first player in the league to claim two titles, and he does so from the charity stripe. Ogilvy is often regarded as “soft”, but this statistic alone proves otherwise. Despite his quiet demeanor on the court, Ogilvy is fierce offensively and is super-aggressive under the basket.

The others…

2. Tyler Smith – Tennessee, Senior – 4.99 – Last Year: 6.36
Smith has a well-known mean-streak, and handles the ball excessively due to his extreme versatility. Smith is a decent three-point shooter, has a solid jumper and can drive the basket along with handling the ball unlike most any other big-man in the league.

3. Brian Johnson – Mississippi State, Graduated – 5.14 – Last Year: 14.36
Johnson was never more than a solid role-player for the Bulldogs, and tended to be haphazardly aggressive in his limited minutes. He had a very poor 0.30 assist-to-turnover ratio, and served often times as more of a liability than an extra body.

4. Michael Washington – Arkansas, Senior – 5.27 – Last Year: 7.67
Washington had to all but carry his entire team, much less the paint, a season ago. He did so by becoming one of the league’s most outstanding big-men, absolutely dominating his area offensively. Washington also has a fiery temper, and is clearly the emotional leader for the Razorbacks.

5. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, NBA Draft – 5.29 – Last Year: 7.50
Meeks was probably the best all-around player in the league last season, as he once again makes a Top Ten list. Especially impressive here, as he was also the league’s best three-point shooter. Meeks served as about 40 percent of his team’s offense, and in the process handled the ball a great deal. That coupled with his speed to the basket earned him this spot.

6. Chris Warren – Ole Miss, Junior – 5.48 – Last Year: 10.54
Warren would’ve been in the discussion for SEC Player of the Year if he hadn’t gone down in his 11th game last season. Warren is tremendously talented and is extremely potent on every end of the floor. Serving as the Rebels’ point guard, he serves as the team’s ball-handler and also owns impressive speed.

7. Marcus Thornton – LSU, Graduated – 5.58 – Last Year: 9.07
Yet another guard who shows up on this list. Thornton, to be fair, is the least guard-like of them as his frame says more forward. His shot doesn’t, though. Thornton was much like Meeks in that he carried his team offensively, and was aggressive with the ball in his hands.

8. Storm Warren – LSU, Sophomore – 5.74 – Last Year: N.A.
For a freshman to show up on this list is nothing short of impressive. Warren is a bit of a work-in-progress and effectively served as a big-man for Johnson’s squad. His shooting isn’t exactly impressive, and neither is his ball-handling, but with this passion Warren could step up into the shoes of the departing Thornton as the team’s leader on the court.

9. David Huertas – Ole Miss, Overseas – 5.76 – Last Year: 16.27
Huertas, much like Meeks and Thornton, carried his team offensively a year ago. Unlike those two, however, Huertas was forced into that position by a string of injuries that sidelines three Rebel starters. Huertas had speed and athleticism to spare, and certainly filled the roles of “leader” exceptionally well.

10. Jeffery Taylor – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 5.79 – Last Year: N.A.
As impressive as Warren’s appearance on this list was, Taylor’s is probably moreso. Taylor exhibited a much higher willingness to take a jumper and proved to be a solid all-around defender and ball-handler. Taylor has the makings of a future SEC star.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…

 

1. Michael Porter – Kentucky, Left Team – 38.50 – Last Year: 48.13

2. Riley Benock – Mississippi State, Junior – 34.08 – Last Year: 28.50

3. Joe Duffy – Vanderbilt, Junior – 31.50 – Last Year: 9.50

4. Marcus Britt – Arkansas, Junior – 28.30 – Last Year: 20.22

5. Brandon Hollinger – Alabama, Graduated – 25.82 – Last Year: 24.00

6. Ravern Johnson – Mississippi State, Junior – 23.91 – Last Year: 18.70

7. Dan Werner – Florida, Senior – 23.79 – Last Year: 14.85

8. Evaldas Banilius – South Carolina, Senior – 22.68 – Last Year: 76.29

9. Branden Conrad – South Carolina, Graduated – 22.58 – Last Year: 7.67

10. Darshawn McClellan – Vanderbilt, Junior – 21.79 – Last Year: 10.89

2008-09 SEC Mr. Clutch Award

Having triumphantly returned to the South after driving over 5,500 miles to California and back, I return this series back to its former glory.

The Mr. Clutch Award is awarded to the player with the least amounts of minutes per free-throws made. This award is clearly representative of a player who can not only challenge his defender (mostly in the paint) but has a clean and efficient stroke from the line as well.

These guys generally have good numbers from any range and are crucial to have on the floor late in games.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

 

The winner is…

 

A.J. OGILVY – Vanderbilt, Junior – 5.83 – Last Year: 5.09
Ogilvy was the all-around subjective winner a year ago, but his efficiency numbers fell drastically from a year ago due to his increased burden after Foster’s departure. Ogilvy is one of the most purely talented players in the league and remains one of the most efficient. Despite a rap for being “weak”, Ogilvy’s ability to get to the line proves otherwise.

The others…

2. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, NBA Draft – 5.86 – Last Year: 9.44
This number is especially impressive considering Meeks’ specialty as an outside shooter. Meeks attempted more free throws than anyone else in the league (234) and had the best percentage from that range as well (90.2%). Meeks was likely the best performer at the charity stripe that the league has seen in quite some time, if ever.

3. Chris Warren – Ole Miss, Junior – 6.41 – Last Year: 13.14
Warren is very Meeks-like in his speed and athleticism, but not the shooter and a better ball-handler. Warren speed and aggressiveness to the basket gets him a healthy amount of attempts from the stripe, and he is liekly the league’s best returning free-throw shooter.

4. Tyler Smith – Tennessee, Senior – 6.51 – Last Year: 9.00
Smith is one of the most well-known and well-respected big men in the conference, and certainly for his extreme versatility. Smith is easily the most versatile player in the conference, with one of the most aggressive attitudes – as this stat certainly proves.

5. David Huertas – Ole Miss, Overseas – 7.15 – Last Year: 20.70
Huertas had to step up in a big way after Ole Miss’ devastating injuries, and he did so with style. Huertas was an excellent slasher and great shooter, combining to make him a force on the free throw stripe.

6. Marcus Thornton – LSU, Graduated – 7.49 – Last Year: 11.10
Thornton was a do-everything, immortal SEC Player of the Year and this number comes straight from his load of carrying his team offensively. Thornton worked on increasing his driving efficiency and requiring less treys, and it paid off.

7. Kodi Augustus – Mississippi State, Junior – 7.81 – Last Year: 13.00
Augustus was one of the more unheralded players in the league last year, as most SEC fans knew he was a sleeping giant forced on the bench due to off-the-court issues. He proved himself in the SEC Tournament, and showed himself to be one of the most fierce competitors in the league.

8. Mikhail Torrance – Alabama, Senior – 7.92 – Last Year: 17.43
Torrance is an example of an exception, where his jumper isn’t the best around but his effort from the charity stripe is outstanding. Torrance is a solid role-player, but won’t be a force for the Tide next year, as this number comes mostly from his percentage: 88.4 percent.

9. Jeffery Taylor – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 8.39 – Last Year: N.A.
Taylor was a tremendous player for the Commodores last year, starting every game. His overall percentages were outstanding, but his outside shot – and even free-throw shot – needs to increase. With his ability to make plays offensively, Taylor could be a force with a refined stroke.

10. Emmanuel Negedu – Tennessee, Sophomore – 8.43 – Last Year: N.A.
Negedu is a major work-in-progress for the Vols, but an efficient and potential-filled one. Negedu has a nice stroke but needs to work on his rebounding to be a consistent source of minutes.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…

 

1. Drazen Zlovaric – Georgia, Sophomore – 85.00 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Chris Bass – LSU, Sophomore – 55.20 – Last Year: N.A.

3. Riley Benock – Mississippi State, Junior – 51.13 – Last Year: 45.60

4. Michael Porter – Kentucky, Left Team – 49.82 – Last Year: 55.00

5. Robert Wilder – South Carolina, Senior – 47.67 – Last Year: N.A.

6. Darshawn McClellan – Vanderbilt, Junior – 43.58 – Last Year: 21.77

7. Josh Tabb – Tennessee, Senior – 43.54 – Last Year: N.A.

8. Kevil Cantinol – Ole Miss, Sophomore – 43.50 – Last Year: N.A.

9. Joe Duffy – Vanderbilt, Junior – 42.00 – Last Year: 9.50

10. DeAundre Cranston – Ole Miss, Senior – 40.31 – Last Year: N.A.

2008-09 SEC Bomber Award

The next addition to the series is the SEC’s player most willing to fire the bomb from long-range. Considering this is formulated as minutes per three attempted, this category relies heavily upon a player’s three-point percentage and the amount of minutes played, along with other intangibles such as what role the player filled on the team. So, needless to say, this isn’t necessarily a positive category nor a negative one.

Wanted to note that I’ve gotten a couple of tips that these rankings seem to be a bit dry. Unfortunately, that’s the nature of the beast with these rankings, and there’s not much I can do to improve that. These posts are serving as something interesting and unique to quell the true college hoops fan’s hunger for the sport until the season comes around. Once the categories have been exhausted, I’ll be breaking down incoming recruits, and eventually moving onto preseason awards and rankings. Until then, skim over (or absorb) these posts!

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

 

The winner is…

 

TROY BREWER – Georgia, Transfer – 3.75 – Last Year: 3.29
Brewer was a work in progress from the moment he stepped foot on Georgia’s campus. Brewer had talent but was an absolutely awful shooter, considering his 22.5 percent effort from behind the arc despite attempting an average of over 10 per every 40 minutes. Brewer never saw the amount of minutes he wanted and opted to transfer after two years under Dennis Felton.

The others…

2. Tay Waller – Auburn, Senior – 3.82 – Last Year: N.A.
Waller, already awared the 2008-09 Nothin’ But Net Award, was arguably a more potent three-point threat than the famed Jodie Meeks of the Wildcat Blue last season. Waller served as Auburn’s main (if not only) offensive weapon from long-range, and he was an extremely effective one. He’d challenge for SEC Player of the Year is the Tigers had a chance to be a good team in 2009-10.

3. Renaldo Woolridge – Tennessee, Sophomore – 4.10 – Last Year: N.A.
Woolridge excelled in no area other than ball-handling and selflessness in his freshman season with the Vols. The guard/forward barely hit 30 percent from the floor and was under 28 percebt from three yet hoisted 69 of his 90 shot attempts on the year from there. Woolridge has an enormous amount of improvement to endure before truly becoming competitive in the SEC.

4. Rickey McPhee – Georgia, Senior - 4.26 – Last Year: N.A.
Proving the ineptitude of Georgia’s offense under Felton, McPhee ranks as the second UGA player in the SEC’s top-four most prolific three-point shooters. Unlike Brewer, however, McPhee has a workable game with a nice jump-shot. If McPhee could become more versatile inside the three-point line, he could play an important role in Georgia’s backcourt next season.

5. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, NBA Draft – 4.30 – Last Year: 5.10
Meeks, one of the league’s biggest superstars in 2008-09, clocks in with his fourth-consecutive positive mention and the only player to have made all four lists thus far. Meeks has always been a dangerous shooter, and he was called upon to step up last season by Gillispie. He did so in an enormous way, serving as the only SEC player to qualify for the league’s minimum attempts and shoot over 40 percent from three. Meeks’ departure was a massive blow for Kentucky.

6. David Huertas – Ole Miss, Overseas – 4.38 – Last Year: 4.38
Although it’s irrelevant, this was the first player I’ve noticed to match his efficiency number from the previous year. Pretty neat. Anyway, Huertas’ loss should limit or destroy the Rebels’ chances at overtaking MSU in the West next season, as he poured in over 18 points per game from all over the floor.

7. Rotnei Clarke – Arkansas, Sophomore – 4.47 – Last Year: N.A.
Clarke is one of, if not the single-most talented rising sophomores in the league. Clarke did everything for the Razorbacks last season, and did so with efficiency numbers generally saved for upperclassmen. Clarke will be an SEC superstar if Arkansas can ever find its feet, although this seems unlikely for 2009-10 due to the team’s heavy off-season losses.

8. Chris Warren – Ole Miss, Junior – 4.67 – Last Year: 4.22
Warren suffered a season-ending injury toward the early part of the season, and his team suffered heavily because of it. Warren is nothing short of a genius at the point-guard position, and is a tremendous all-around asset for the Rebels. Warren shot effectively from three during his freshman season but barely hit 30 percent of them last season.

9. Cameron Tatum – Tennessee, Sophomore – 4.67 – Last Year: N.A.
Tatum is a talented guard/forward who suffered from the Vols’ lack of guards a season ago. He put up 134 threes in 217 attempts and brought down just 32.1% of those. Tatum is competitive at every aspect of the game, but needs to improve to challenge for a starting position. His free-throw percentage, defense and rebounding all need tweeking.

10. Brandon Hollinger – Alabama, Graduated – 4.98 – Last Year: 7.49
Hollinger was a backup shooter whose effectiveness absolutely plummeted when senior Ronald Steele left the team. Steele was one of the league’s best point guards, and was able to build a chemistry with Hollinger that led him to hit over 43 percent of his threes during his junior year. During his last year for the Crimson Tide, he shot just 17.5 percent from that range.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…
Minimum of 10 total threes attempted set

 

1. Perry Stevenson – Kentucky, Senior – 101.00 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Tasmin Mitchell – LSU, Senior – 59.84 – Last Year: 13.20

3. Brian Williams – Tennessee, Junior – 55.90 – Last Year: 185.00

4. Terrance Henry – Ole Miss, Junior – 34.65 – Last Year: N.A.

5. J.P. Prince – Tennessee, Senior – 34.08 – Last Year: 39.08

6. Michael Washington – Arkansas, Senior – 30.03 – Last Year: 17.33

7. A.J. Ogilvy – Vanderbilt, Junior – 29.59 – Last Year: 448.00

8. Ramon Harris – Kentucky, Senior – 27.36 – Last Year: 24.36

9. Ray Shipman – Florida, Sophomore – 23.70 – Last Year: N.A.

10. Darshawn McClellan – Vanderbilt, Junior – 22.74 – Last Year: 47.90

2008-09 SEC Nothin’ But Net Award

Continuing the series, this award goes to the most efficient three-point shooter in the conference. This category, as a whole, is mostly positive and doesn’t rely too heavily on any others, although three-point percentage and number of attempts would be relevant. While it’s possible for a poor shooter to make this list, it’s not likely.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

 

The winner is…

 

TAY WALLER – Auburn, Senior – 10.40 – Last Year: N.A.
This is a pretty shocking upset, as Waller was practically unknown amongst the media types who regularly drooled over Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks. Waller provided a vast majority of Auburn’s points from behind the arc – 272 attempts worth – and brought down a solid percentage of those shots. Waller is a reliable ball-handler, a somewhat streaky shooter overall and a great shot from the charity stripe.

The others…

2. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, NBA Draft – 10.57 – Last Year: 15.94
Meeks was the super-star shooter of the SEC last season, and for good reason. Meeks easily led the conference by hitting 40.6% of his 288 attempts from long-range, which also led the league. Meeks carried the Wildcats a season ago, with his speed and pure shooting ability nearly unstoppable for five opponents to guard, much less one.

3. Rotnei Clarke – Arkansas, Sophomore – 11.37 – Last Year: N.A.
One of only two Razorbacks to start every game last season, Clarke likely would have challenged, if not won, SEC Freshman of the Year had he played for a team that didn’t crash and burn worse than the Hindenburg. Clarke – as a freshman, mind you – shot nearly 40% from behind the arc, 93.5% from the charity stripe, and managed a 1.28 assist-to-turnover ratio. This kid will be a superstar if and when Arkansas ever gets some feet beneath its program.

4. Rickey McPhee – Georgia, Senior – 11.71 – Last Year: N.A.
McPhee was little-used last season for the Bulldogs, as he saw just 25 games, but proved to be a solid contributor. Just 14 of his 80 shots were not from three-point distance, as he didn’t necessarily favor being guarded. McPhee isn’t a big-time player, but a solid shooter on a team in desperate need of role-players.

5. Evaldas Banilius – South Carolina, Senior – 11.81 – Last Year: 12.71
Banilius is likely the best shooter in the league, if not one of the best in the nation, that noone has heard about. He didn’t come close to attempting enough shots to be counted, but if he had he’d be the best three-point shooter in the league barring outliers at 48.0% with 100 attempts. Banilius needs to work on his ball-handling and defense, but is a dangerous shooter that thrives with Downey at the point.

6. David Huertas – Ole Miss, Overseas - 12.35 – Last Year: 12.15
Huertas became the prime offensive weapon for the Rebels after the team suffered a loss of three starters as the season began. Huertas led the team with 18.1 points per game, but took an inordinate amount of shots from long-range and wasn’t spectacularly efficient. Huertas was the best option for the Rebels last season, but if the returning players can get healthy, some more efficient scorers need to pick up the slack left by his departure.

7. Erving Walker – Florida, Sophomore – 12.41 – Last Year: N.A.
Walker joins Clarke and a select few other SEC sophomores that could have garnered SEC Freshman of the Year in better circumstances and have the potential to be SEC Player of the Year eventually. Walker is an outstanding shot from three – and everywhere else on the court – is admirably selfless with the ball, and is solid on defense.

8. Ravern Johnson – Mississippi State, Junior – 13.25 – Last Year: 26.71
Johnson, who led the nation in three-point percentage after the halfway-point last season, is one of the most dangerous pure-shooters in the league. His slashing skills began to surface last season, but his height of his body and his jump-shot are nearly impossible for most guards to defend. Johnson is a Meeks-like shooter with SEC Player of the Year potential if he could work on his turnovers.

9. Brad Tinsley – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 13.91 – Last Year: N.A.
Tinsley falls into the previously mentioned list of super-star freshmen who are set to hit the league big-time. Tinsley put up huge efficiency numbers as a freshman in the wake of Shan Foster’s departure, and is an outstanding shooter. Tinsley can score from anywhere on the floor and defends very well. Tinsley and Ogilvy should make an exciting pair in 2009-10.

10. Marcus Thornton – LSU, Graduated – 14.31 – Last Year: 11.59
Thornton’s production-per-minute dropped severely from a season ago, and it’s surprising to see such a talented shooter so low on the list. Thornton worked on shot selection and his percentages increased while his timed efficiency took a hit. Thornton – the league’s Player of the Year in 2008-09 – was still overwhelmingly potent on the offensive end and clearly the best overall player in the league.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…
Minimum of 10 total threes made set

 

1. Tasmin Mitchell – LSU, Senior – 113.70 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Quantez Robertson – Auburn, Graduated – 58.82 – Last Year: 36.00

3. George Drake – Vanderbilt, Senior – 52.20 – Last Year: 66.00

4. Zac Swansey – Georgia, Transfer – 51.33 – Last Year: 55.30

5. DeAndre Liggins – Kentucky, Sophomore – 45.50 – Last Year: N.A.

6. Dominique Archie – South Carolina, Senior – 43.43 – Last Year: 42.04

7. Darius Miller – Kentucky, Sophomore – 42.44 – Last Year: N.A.

8. Josh Tabb – Tennessee, Senior – 40.43 – Last Year: 65.25

9. Tyler Smith – Tennessee, Senior – 39.54 – Last Year: 72.64

10. Alonzo Gee – Alabama, Graduated – 38.04 – Last Year: 27.61

2008-09 Hot Hands Award…

Time to pick up the pace around here, people. This award is given to the player who puts up the most shots in the amount of time he is on the floor. The calculation is simple; field goals attempted per minute played. This category isn’t necessarily positive or negative – that would rely heavily on these players’ percentages and turnover rates. What it does show, however, is a surplus of confidence and eagerness to be in the limelight.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

 

The winner is…

 

DEVAN DOWNEY – Senior, South Carolina – 1.93 – Last Year: 2.32
Downey and Thornton finished 1 and 2 for the second-straight year, while Downey jumped a spot this year to claim first place. Downey is a dynamic pint-sized (5′9″) point guard who has blazing speed and the moves to drive to the basket while the lumbering bodies of those around him stumble  over themselves trying to stop the layup. Downey will be a favorite for SEC Player of the Year in 2009-10.

The others…

2. Marcus Thornton – Graduated, LSU – 2.06 – Last Year: 2.15
Thornton increased his already extreme output from a year ago, but was just surpassed by Downey. Thornton is quick and dynamic, but more of a pure shooter than Downey as he was one of the most dangerous outside threats in the conference. Thornton was everything for LSU a year ago, and he carried the load again this year despite a bit more help around him on and off the sidelines.

3. Jodie Meeks – NBA Draft, Kentucky – 2.18 – Last Year: 2.90
Meeks was the SEC’s superstar last year, taking his name from outsie any All-SEC lists to the NBA draft. He’s always liked to shoot, but he bursted onto the scene this season in a big way, leading the conference in scoring at 23.7 points per game. Meeks was Kentucky’s only true shooting threat, and thus the offense ran through him and big-man Patrick Patterson.

4. Chris Warren – Junior, Ole Miss – 2.21 – Last Year: 2.42
Warren is a potential superstar who had a phenomenal freshman year before suffering an injury 11 games into the 2008-09 season. If he can return to form, he’ll be one of the league’s scorers and one of the nation’s best ball-handlers. Warren is an excellent all-around player, as his percentages and efficiency numbers are through the roof. Warren will vie for SEC Player of the Year honors by his senior season if he can return to 100%.

5. Travis Leslie – Sophomore, Georgia – 2.33 – Last Year: N.A.
Leslie, while admirably brave for a freshman, was a bit of a ball-hog last season. His numbers can’t be overlooked, as he was pretty efficient at bringing home the points as well, but his 0.59 assist-to-turnover ratio and 57.5% mark from the charity stripe will have to improve for him to truly have a significant impact for the Bulldogs.

6. Trey Thompkins – Sophomore, Georgia – 2.36 – Last Year: N.A.
Thompkins was easily the most underrated freshman in the league last year, as he shot nearly 40% from three – and this is a 6′9″, 247 pound big-man. Thompkins is one of the most versatile players in the conference, and he will once again be relied upon heavily by a talent-starved Georgia team.

7. David Huertas – Overseas, Ole Miss – 2.39 – Last Year: 2.72
While Ole Miss fans will likely brush this loss off, losing Huertas to professional play overseas was a massive blow to the Rebels’ chances at a breakout season in 2009-10. Huertas led the team in scoring and was one of the team’s most prolific rebounders and ball-handlers. Huertas needed tp step up after three starters fell to season-ending injuries, and he did so with flair.

8. Zam Fredrick – Graduated, South Carolina – 2.39 – Last Year: 2.58
Fredrick was an under-the-radar type who was a reliable shooting presence to take some defensive heat off of Downey. Fredrick was Downey’s favorite target outside the arc, and he brought treys down at nearly a 38% clip.

9. Senario Hillman – Junior, Alabama – 2.40 – Last Year: 3.40
Hillman is a pure slasher, and not much else. He attempted over 100 threes a season ago and barely made over 27% of them, while he had a tendency to turn the ball over as well. Hillman was one of the Tide’s few options last year, but more of the offense should have been flowing through Gee and Green.

10. Wayne Chism – Senior, Tennessee – 2.47 – Last Year: 2.79
If a man named Tyler Smith didn’t play for the Vols, Chism would be a superstar. Chism is without a doubt better at his position than Smith, although not as versatile. Chism is one of the league’s best inside-men both offensively and defensively, and his efficiency numbers are outstanding. While he won’t get the publicity, Chism is the scariest player on Tennessee’s roster.

The opposite end of the spectrum…

1. Robert Wilder – Senior, South Carolina – 35.75 – Last Year: 4.67

2. Chris Bass – Sophomore, LSU – 10.62 – Last Year: N.A.

3. Kevin Cantinol – Sophomore, Ole Miss – 8.70 – Last Year: N.A.

4. Demetrius Jemison – Senior, Alabama – 7.42 – Last Year: 4.57

5. Quintin Thornton – Graduated, LSU – 7.37 – Last Year: 16.77

6. Steven Pearl – Junior, Tennessee – 7.30 – Last Year: 4.73

7. Branden Conrad – Graduated, South Carolina – 7.13 – Last Year: 15.33

8. Josh Tabb – Senior, Tennessee – 6.66 – Last Year: 7.91

 9. Marcus Britt – Junior, Arkansas – 6.66 – Last Year: 6.74

10. Darshawn McClellan – Junior, Vandebrilt – 6.62 – Last Year: 6.22

 

Please leave comments!!

2008-09 Bearing The Burden Award…

This award will begin a series of awards based on efficiency numbers (category vs. minutes played) over the next few weeks. These are pure numbers – no bias involved. However, they can be misleading. Thus, here are some heads-ups…

• These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.
• Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.
• Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

With further ado, we will begin. Today’s award is the Bearing The Burden Award, given out to the conference’s most efficient field-goal-drainer. This is calculated by Minutes/Field Goals Made. This category clearly relies not only on Field Goals Attempted but also on Field Goal Percentage to prove truly accurate, although this list is not far from right-on.

The winner is…

MARCUS THORNTON – Graduated, LSU  – 4.36 – Last Year: 4.92
Thornton undercut last year’s winner,  A.J. Ogilvy, but .14 and wasn’t the only one to beat last year’s mark. Thornton, serving as LSU’s main offensive threat and facing defenses’ best, still had no problem draining three after three. Thornton was one of the more unheralded players in the game last season, and was absolutely unstoppable and extremely reliable.

The others…

2. Devan Downey – Senior, South Carolina – 4.41 – Last Year: 5.49
Downey joins Thornton in undercutting A.J. Ogilvy’s mark from a year ago, interesting that this year’s top three are all guards while last year’s top three were all forwards. Downey was also his team’s main offensive threat in 2008-09, with his size assisting in his speed and his ability to charge the basket. Downey will likely be one of the favorites for SEC Player of the Year next season.

3. Jodie Meeks – NBA Draft, Kentucky – 4.70 – Last Year: 9.44
One of this year’s most breakout stars, Meeks has won accolades from all across the nation. As a result of having no experienced ball-handlers, Kentucky’s offense was a sinking ship waiting to happen. Most nights, Meeks was the liferaft. Meeks led the conference in scoring and had the ball in his hand every posession.

4. Patrick Patterson – Junior, Kentucky – 4.78 – Last Year: 5.51
Patterson, after receiving SEC Co-Freshman of the Year, has proven himself in every aspet of the game. Kentucky dodged a bullet when Patterson dodged the draft, as he will be a first-round pick when he jumps. With a more well-rounded offense and help down low, Patterson’s production may decrease next year.

5. Alex Tyus – Junior, Florida – 4.84 – Last Year: 6.74
Speaking of dodging a bullet, Florida missed one of two this year. The heart and soul of their team in their star point guard Nick Calathes went pro – in Europe – and Tyus announced he was transferring, leaving many to wonder what was going on in Gainesville. Tyus changed his mind, and his production should increase with the loss of hot-handed Calathes.

6. Michael Washington – Senior, Arkansas – 5.06 – Last Year: 9.00
Washington rivaled Meeks in Most Improved in 2008-09, as he effectively had no choice when nearly his entire team graduated or left the team. The big-man stepped up big-time and relied upon heavily. Unlike others in this list, he had a tendency to be susceptible to double-teams and solid defense, but was an outstanding and otherwise reliable presence for the Razorbacks.

7. Tasmin Mitchell – Senior, LSU – 5.08 – Last Year: 9.43
With Thornton hogging all the lime-light, most forgot about Mitchell. And that was to his advantage, as his size and skill dominated nearly every defender he saw. Mitchell came on strong at the end of the season, enough to seriously consider jumping to the NBA draft. He’s back, and LSU has a chance to not be god-awful next year because of it.

8. Travis Leslie – Sophomore, Georgia – 5.23 – Last Year: N.A.
Leslie is the lone returning freshman on this list and likely the most underrated freshman from 2008-09. Leslie is absolutely awful from the charity stripe and isn’t fond of taking long-range shots, but is a reliable scorer that could turn into a star for the Bulldogs.

9. A.J. Ogilvy – Junior, Vanderbilt – 5.26 – Last Year: 4.46
The only player on this list whose production actually decreased from a year ago, ogilvy suffered from the loss of Foster. Foster was one of the greatest shooters the conference has ever seen, and distracted defenses enough to allow Ogilvy open shots underneath. Ogilvy is still outstanding at most every aspect of the game and should be a first-round draft-when he opts for the NBA.

10. Wayne Chism – Senior, Tennessee – 5.29 - Last Year: 5.94
Chism seems to be constantly battling teammate Tyler Smith for notice. And don’t look now, he may very well be better at the colelgiate level. Chism is an outstanding rebounder, is a force in the paint and likely doesn’t see enough touches considering his ability to get the ball in the basket. He and Smith will challenge Kentucky and Mississippi State for the conference’s most feared front-court.

The opposite end of the spectrum…

1. Marcus Monk – Inellgible, Arkansas – 9.92 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Rickey McPhee – Senior, Georgia – 9.69 – Last Year: N.A.

3. Brandis Raley-Ross – Senior, South Carolina – 9.67 – Last Year: 8.86

4. Chris Barnes – Junior, Georgia – 9.55 – Last Year: 8.86

5. Justin Knox – Junior, Alabama – 9.48 – Last Year: 13.80

6. Terry Martin – Graduated, LSU – 9.46 – Last Year: 7.75

7. Drazen Zlovaric – Sophomore, Georgia – 9.44 – Last Year: N.A.

8. Perry Stevenson – Senior, Kentucky – 9.44 – Last Year: 10.96

9. Zach Graham – Junior, Ole Miss – 9.35 – Last Year: 6.86

10. Sam Muldrow – Junior, South Carolina – 9.33 – Last year: 10.51

 

Please leave comments if you enjoyed this breakdown or have questions, and I will be releasing the next set soon!

2008-09 Over/Under Achievers

No doubt that, as a whole, the SEC underachieved heavily in 2008-09. Due mostly to a severe lack of experience, many teams in the conference fell well short of their expectations this season.

Here’s a breakdown of each team’s performance this season, and how it compared to… (A) How the team was expected to perform, and (B) How I personally believe the team should  have performed. Keep in mind that these two factors can be wildly different, as my outlooks are very different than those of the media at times.

I’m also including, as an added bonus, my pre-season predictions posted on the blog in October.

UNDERACHIEVERS

Alabama   (18-14, 7-9, #108)
My prediction:   (18-11, 8-8, ~2 seed NIT)

vs. expectations: Alabama has been heralded ever since Ronald Steele stepped foot on campus, and the media fully expected the Tide to at least make some type of postseason with him returning and the addition of his brother.

vs. my prediction: I was very close with the Tide, although I again overestimated what .500 in the SEC would mean this season.

Arkansas   (14-16, 2-14, #147)
My prediction:   (14-15, 5-11, no postseason)

vs. expectations: After losing a great deal to graduation in 2007-08, the Razorbacks weren’t expected to compete well in the SEC this year. Two wins, however, was even less than most expected.

vs. my prediction: I nailed the Razorbacks’ overall record within a half-game, but I had no idea Pelphrey was capable of just two wins in the SEC – especially with the amount of talent on the roster that he had. Any team with Michael Washington, Courtney Fortson and Rotnei Clark should win more than two games in the SEC – especially considering the state of the SEC this past season.

Florida   (25-11, 9-7, #54)
My prediction:   (25-5, 12-4, ~3 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Considering Donovan took a bunch of sophomores to a national championship just a few years ago, the media seemed to buy into the idea that Florida could compete for the East this season with Tennessee. They fell just one game short of the East, but noone knew what little that would mean.

vs. my prediction: This was possibly my worst pick of the season, as I bought far too much into the old storyline of Donovan’s super sophomores from a few years back. I also underestimated the impact that Florida’s ridiculously soft non-conference schedule would have on the team’s postseason.

Kentucky   (22-14, 8-8, #79)
My prediction:   (22-8, 11-5, ~6 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Kentucky did nothing but struggle under now-deposed head coach Billy Gillispie, and 2008-09 was no different. Expectations are always high for the Blue, and this year was no different considering the enormous amount of talent on the squad – including SEC Player of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson.

vs. my prediction: I foresaw Kentucky struggling according to their own standards, but never would I have dreamt that the Wildcats would be competing in the NIT. Last year was truly a new low for Kentucky basketball fans.

Tennessee   (21-13, 10-6, #25)
My prediction:   (25-5, 13-3, ~3 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Tennessee was pre-season Top 25 and was expected to easily take the SEC title. Despite a solid showing in the conference, the team fell three games short of first-place LSU and received a much lower NCAA bid than would have been thought.

vs. my prediction: With the addition of Top 10 player Scotty Hopson and having two of the better inside players in the league in Smith and Chism, I fully expected Pearl’s team to do exactly what the media thought. The Vols simply weren’t able to play enough defense to win enough games to truly compete for the SEC, and this lack of defense seems to be a theme under Pearl.

Vanderbilt   (19-12, 8-8, #95)
My prediction:   (24-6, 9-7, ~5 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Vandy finished around where they were expected to, possibly slightly lower, at 4th in the East and .500 in SEC play.

vs. my prediction: The ‘Dores fell well short, overall, of how I felt they could have done with all-star A.J. Ogilvy on the roster. While my SEC prediction was close, I underestimated the growing pains of a team losing an offensive powerhouse like Shan Foster.

ON PAR

Georgia   (12-20, 3-13, #192)
My prediction:   (15-13, 5-11, no postseason)

vs. expectations: After a shocking SEC Tournament run, the media began to see improvement in the Bulldogs heading into 2008-09. But expectations remained low, considering the signficant uphill mountain that faced the team.

vs. my prediction: I gave the Bulldogs some leeway, as Top 20 freshman Howard Thompkins was added to the roster. Often times a single player can make several games’ difference, but that was not the case here in Dennis Felton’s final year at Georgia.

Ole Miss   (16-15, 7-9, #82)
My prediction:   (17-13, 7-9, ~4 seed NIT)

vs. expectations: This was a tricky one to rank, as the Rebels pretty much matched their expectations before the season despite losing three starters to injury. In that sense, the Rebels overachieved heavily.

vs. my prediction: Again, I was very close with the result here – nailing the SEC record. I did not, however, account for the massive losses to injury and thus this was an impressive performance by the Rebels.

South Carolina   (21-10, 10-6, #57)
My prediction:   (19-10, 8-8, ~2 seed NIT)

vs. expectations: South Carolina returned nearly every player on their roster in 2008-09 and rightfully was expected to challenge for the East and make an NCAA appearance. While USC tied for the East title, its laughably weak non-conference schedule cost it an NCAA bid.

vs. my prediction: I was pretty much dead-on with USC apart from a two-game difference in the conference, as I knew from the beginning that a non-conference schedule like that would cost the team a chance at the Big Dance.

OVERACHIEVERS

Auburn   (24-12, 10-6, #64)
My prediction:   (14-17, 3-13, no postseason)

vs. expectations: Auburn was one of two big surprises in the West this season, as Lebo actually managed a decent season in leiu of a very weak SEC. Auburn had for several years finished in the bottom of the West, and was once again thought to take that place.

vs. my prediction: The Tigers added Korvotney Barber back to the mix, and I severely underestimated his potential to change Auburn’s offense. With the addition of him and talented JUCO transfer Tay Waller, this offense got hot and took a top seed in the NIT along with 2nd place in the West.

LSU   (27-8, 13-3, #37)
My prediction:   (21-10, 8-8, ~9 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: LSU was easily the SEC’s biggest surprise this year under first-year coach Trent Johnson, as the team’s suffocating defense dominated the SEC from the outset. LSU had very little expectations heading into 2008-09 due to a sub-.500 year in 2007-08.

vs. my prediction: While I knew the Tigers had the potential to improve vastly from the year before, I didn’t prepare for just how large a jump the team would make after bringing back nearly everyone on the roster.

Mississippi State   (23-13, 9-7, #63)
My prediction:   (21-10, 8-8, ~10 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Mississippi State lost two of the most high-octane performers at their positions heading into 2008-09 and thus the media’s outlook on the team was not much more than an afterthought. State responded with 23 wins, an SEC Tournament title and an NCAA bid.

vs. my prediction: While I overestimated what 8-8 in the SEC would do for the RPI because of the conference’s sluggish performance as a whole, the Bulldogs still performed very well by finishing 3rd in the West under a stellar freshman point guard.

Official 2008-09 SECHGBD Men’s Basketball Awards

Meeks: SEC Player of the Year

Here are the rather delayed decisions…

SEC Player of the Year:   Jodie Meeks (Junior, Kentucky)

This was a tough decision between three players in particular, but in the end, Meeks’ ability to drain crucial shots from the perimeter and inordinate knack for getting to the charity stripe garnered him the honor of this year’s Player of the Year.

Meeks led the SEC this year in scoring with 23.7 points per game, as just he and Marcus Thornton from LSU were able to average more than 20. Meeks’ 117 three-pointers made easily eclipsed any other player in the SEC while his 40.7% average from long-range also easily led the conference. Added to this impressive resume’ was Meeks’ 263 field goals made this season, 7 more than anyone else in the league. Meeks’ overall 46.3% effort from the floor was 10th best in the SEC, and third amongst the league’s guards.

It’s not all about the pure scoring numbers, and Meeks was not exactly one-dimensional. He also shot 90.2% from the charity stripe to lead the league in that category as well, needless to mention the fact that he attempted 234 shots from there – 12 more than anyone else in the SEC.

The junior, who has announced he will be testing out the NBA draft this offseason, also averaged 1.33 steals per contest (good for 13th in the league) and 34.36 minutes per game (1st).

If Meeks returns to UK for his senior season, Kentucky will have a heck of an offensive weapon.

SEC Freshman of the Year:   Dee Bost (Freshman, Mississippi State)

This contest was clearly between two individuals, as Terrico White of Ole Miss was a better pure scorer than Bost. Bost, however, brings a much more well-rounded and complete game to the floor and is arguably better at on-ball defense. There is no doubt, however, that Bost is a far better leader on his team.

Bost filled the rather enormous shoes of outgoing junior Jamont Gordon very well and took an MSU team picked 4th in the SEC West to a tie for 2nd in the division, an SEC Tournament title, and an NCAA Tournament bid. Bost did so by averaging 4.33 assists per game, 4th in the conference and 2nd among freshmen. While the assist-to-turnover ratio is a category in which nearly every freshman struggles, Bost did not – registering a 1.53 mark, 7th in the league and best among freshmen.

Bost did what every great point guard should do – hand the ball out, take care of the ball, and defend. The latter was demonstrated by his average of 1.44 steals per game which also ranked best among the league’s freshmen and 12th overall in the conference.

Bost was no slouch at scoring either, finishing with a 10.9 points per game average. He also shot 71.8% from the charity stripe, good for 12th in the SEC and again first among freshmen.

While both Bost and White will be outstanding players in their SEC careers, it seems that Bost will prove to be a much more potent all-around player for opposing SEC squads.

SEC Coach of the Year:   Trent Johnson (1st year, LSU)

Unlike many of the other awards this offseason, this one was very clear-cut. Johnson took a very talented but horribly-coached program under John Brady and destroyed the SEC with it the following year.

LSU, just two years removed from a Final Four, was in disarray in 2007-08. The Tigers won just 13 games while losing 18 and went 6-10 in the conference.

Johnson came in and instilled an intense in-your-face defense that finished 2008-09 ranked 17th in the nation, easily claimed the overall SEC season title after going 13-3 in-conference and finished 27-8 overall.

Johnson was an outstanding choice by LSU’s athletic department, and it seems the Tigers will be a force to be reckoned with for many years to come.

SEC Defensive Player of the Year:   Jarvis Varnado (Junior, MSU)

Words can hardly describe the defensive power, presence and ability of Jarvis Varnado. After absolutely shattering the single-season and career blocks records at MSU, he has gone on to surpass Shaquille O’Neal’s single-season SEC block record. He is now on pace to shatter not only the SEC career block record, but the NCAA one as well. In fact, Varnado himself had more blocks in 2008-09 than 9 of the teams in the SEC and over 300 teams in NCAA Division 1 basketball.

Varnado reigns as the two-time reigning National Defensive Player of the Year, and one could hardly keep him from the title of SEC Defensive Player of the Year. If he returns, he could very well be a favorite for the 2009-10 SEC Player of the Year.

SEC First-Team

Jodie Meeks   (Kentucky – Junior – 23.7ppg – 3.4rpg – 46.3% FG – 40.6% 3PT)

Meeks was possibly the most dangerous and hot-handed scorer in the conference this year, and has an excellent driving ability that sends him to the charity stripe more than any other player in the league. Meeks was more valuable to Kentucky this season than any player was to any other team in the SEC.

Marcus Thornton   (LSU – Senior – 21.1ppg – 5.5rpg – 47.2% FG – 38.8% 3PT)

Thornton was in a close battle with Meeks for Player of the Year honors throughout the season, and is a very similar player to him. Thornton has more muscle and is a better rebounder, but not quite as strong of a shooter. Thornton was one of the most dynamic players in the league, and LSU will have a huge hole to fill on his graduation heading toward the 2009-10 season.

Jarvis Varnado   (Miss. State – Junior – 12.9ppg – 8.8rpg – 4.72bpg – 54.9% FG)

Varnado is destroying block records left and right around the league and soon to be the nation, assuming he returns. What most don’t know, however, is his well-rounded game, as Varnado is a potent scorer under the basket and one of the best rebounders in the league. Varnado could challenge for 2009-10 SEC Player of the Year.

Devan Downey   (South Carolina – Junior – 19.8ppg – 2.8rpg – 4.52apg – 2.87apg)

Downey was without much doubt the best defending guard in the SEC for the 2008-09 season, as he finished almost a whole steal more than any other player in the league. Downey’s small size and tremendous speed led to nearly impossible matchups for most guards in the league he matched up against, and Downey knows how to attack the basket. Ranked third in the conference, he also knows how to score. If he returns, South Carolina could be very, very good next year.

Nick Calathes   (Florida – Sophomore – 17.2ppg – 5.3ppg – 6.4apg – 1.94 a/to)

This was a difficult decision between Calathes, Tennessee’s Tyler Smith and Kentucky’s Patrick Patterson for the final First-Team position, but I have a weakness for good ball-handling and smart-playing point guards. Calathes, last year’s SEC Freshman of the Year, has everything that makes an outstanding point guard – and he can score. Averaging 17.2ppg and still handing out 6.4 assists per outing is no small feat.

SEC Second-Team

Tyler Smith   (Tennessee – Junior – 17.4ppg – 5.8rpg – 3.4apg – 76.6% FT)

Tyler Smith is one of the most dynamic big-men in the conference, as he is money from under the basket and is still quite dangerous from behind the arc. He can also drive the basket and, get this, he can dish the ball…3.4 assists per game is outstanding for a forward. Smith is a great scorer with an NBA body – I’d be surprised if he returns in 2009-10.

Patrick Patterson   (Kentucky – Sophomore – 17.9ppg – 9.3rpg – 2.1bpg – 60.3% FG)

Keeping Patterson from the First-Team was a very difficult thing to do considering his page-filling stat sheet, and as a sophomore this young man has an enormous amount of potential. Patterson is an absolute force for the Wildcats, as there is likely not a better interior scorer than him in the entire league. He is also one of the league’s best rebounders and is better defensively than anyone in the league not named Jarvis Varnado.

Korvotney Barber   (Auburn – Senior – 12.8ppg – 9.6ppg – 1.2bpg – 54.5% FG)

Barber is absolutely money from within five feet of the basket, as his impressive field-goal percentage indicates. Don’t move him outside of that range, however – he’s just 47.3% from free throw. That aside, Barber nearly averaged a double-double for the surprising Tigers and was likely the SEC’s best rebounder last year.

Michael Washington   (Arkansas – Junior – 15.5ppg – 9.8rpg – 1.3bpg – 55.1% FG)

Washington is yet another surpemely talented big-man on the SEC Second Team. For a while, Washington looked like the best in the league, and he would clearly win a “Most Improved” award for the SEC. Washington had the misfortune of playing for one of the SEC’s worst teams, but could lead a susprising Razorback team next year.

Alonzo Gee   (Alabama – Senior – 15.0ppg – 7.2rpg – 44.2% FG – 36.5% 3PT)

Alonzo Gee was one of the league’s most dynamic overall players last season, as he was unstoppable while driving to the basket. His athletic body and sheer mass proved a difficult matchup for his defenders, and he was also one of the league’s most talented rebounding guards – although that term could be used lightly for high-flying Gee. The Crimson Tide will sorely miss his presence in 2009-10.

Grant officially accepts Alabama job…

Grant Accepts Job Offer

Anthony Grant, former coach of VCU, has accepted the job offer and will be coaching the Crimson Tide in 2009-10. This seems to be a decent hire, although I’m just not sold on Grant, who served as an assistant under Biilly Donovan at Florida before accepting the head job at VCU.

Grant has improved the situation at VCU, no doubt, but there’s just not enough evidence on the guy for me to be comfortable believing he is an SEC-caliber coach. The future shall ease my concerns, one way or another.

His numbers are certainly impressive, that’s for sure…he is 76-25 as a head coach and 45-9 in the Colonial Athletic Association. None of his teams have made it out of the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Anthony Grant lands in Tuscaloosa…

VCU’s coach Anthony Grant landed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama [home of the Crimson Tide] this morning around 10 a.m. CT and is being formally interview for the job there.

Grant, of course, is a former Billy Donovan [Florida] assistant. He’s a good coach, but I’m not sold on his readiness for an SEC, or a BCS for that matter, position. He has done well at VCU, but BCS leagues are a completely different animal all together. His ties to the SEC and its recruiting bases will help, so we shall see if he can make the grade in Tuscaloosa – assuming he is hired.

Rumor mill on full alert…

I want to provide a disclaimer in that everything in this post is simply speculation and rumor, nothing more. With that said…

The rumor with possibly the most legs is that Kentucky is secretly in talks with John Calipari of Memphis and has already decided to let Billy Gilelspie go. While I can certainly understand the logic here as Gillespie has been a miserable failure in terms of Kentucky basketball, it’s a bit surprising considering Gillespie is just one year removed from SEC Coach of the Year honors (although he didn’t deserve it) and jsut two removed from being hired. Seth Davis from Sports Illustrated says that a high-placed donor was quoted that, “it’s a done deal.”

I’ve also heard that Tom Izzo of Michigan State was offered and has accepted the job at Alabama. The Tide Times – granted just a blog, but could be legitmate – claims Izzo was offered 16 million for 8 years. Seems like a long contract for such a high-profile coach, but we shall see.

Not too much going on with the Georgia search that I’ve heard, but I’ll keep everyone updated…

SEC Tournament: Day Two Live-Blogging

12:03 p.m. CT:   LSU and Kentucky are about to start – my predictions are LSU by fivish, MSU by threeish, Tennessee by 7ish, and Florida by threeish. Strange how evenly matched LSU/Kentucky and USC/MSU seem to be personnel-wise.

12:24 p.m. CT:   LSU tried to pull away, Kentucky’s defense tightens and pulls within three. LSU’s offense looks messy – this team just has a LOT of talent. 7-0 run from Kentucky, holding LSU pointless for more than 3 minutes…how many times will the LSU guards drive the lane and lose control of the ball??

12:31 p.m. CT:   LSU’s offense is offensive. If the threes aren’t falling, how is this team going to score??

12:40 p.m. CT:   These guards from each team are insisting on driving the lane with shot-blockers lurking…

12:54 p.m. CT:   LSU leads at the half, 28-23…both offenses are struggling with the opponent’s defense. LSU just has more dynamic talent and better  shooting.

Okay, going to grab some food before the MSU/USC game…will be back in 15-30 minutes.

2:21 p.m. CT:   I return just as the LSU/Kentucky game has ended, and it did so about how I expected. The Tigers’ defense was able to contain Kentucky’s offense (Meeks) as he scored just eight points. LSU now will face the winner of the upcoming MSU/USC game.

Kentucky’s NCAA chances are questionable at this point. The Wildcats should be hoping for USC, Tennessee and Auburn to win today.

Interesting to note that the higher seed has won every game thus far in the SEC Tournament…we’ll see if it continues.

2:38 p.m. CT:   MSU seems to be intent on getting the ball to Varnado for a jumper and he’s missing them, USC shooting well, out to a 6-0 run. MSU turning the ball over profusely, Varnado with several blocks already.

2:44 p.m. CT:   MSU looks very bad, turning the ball over and making poor decisions. USC capitalizing, up 10-2.

2:48 p.m. CT:   Referees are not doing MSU any favors – USC playing very physically. 6 turnovers early for MSU.

3:05 p.m. CT:   MSU trimmed it within four, USC then pulled away by 10 again. This isn’t a pretty game.

3:12 p.m. CT:   I’ve never seen a man as big as Kodi Augustus hit threes like he does. USC is hitting EVERYthing, contested shots and all.

3:17 p.m. CT:   Four blocks for Varnado in the half – refs missing several calls on both ends. Fredrick and Archie both with more then ten points. At the half, USC leads 36-32.

3:40 p.m. CT:   MSU within one, 16:20. The threes are falling for State, but USC seems as if they can’t miss.

3:42 p.m. CT:   MSU takes its first lead of the game with a Turner dunk. USC has gotten cold and State seems to be handling the ball better.

3:53 p.m. CT:   Refs have called a NUMBER of questionable offensive foul calls on MSU…game tied at 48 with 11:02.

3:56 p.m. CT:   Seems like every break falls USC’s way – this is a very entertaining game.

4:06 p.m. CT:   MSU pulls out to a 7-point lead, its biggest on 53% shooting from behind the arc.

4:15 p.m. CT:   The two teams have switched positions, as it seems as if MSU is the one that can’t miss now. Great passing from State, good defense as the Gamecocks have struggled to score in this half.

4:23 p.m. CT:   South Carolina rebounding well in the final couple of minutes, pulled it within 73-68 with 51.2 seconds remaining. This game is going to come down to MSU’s free throws and South Carolina’s rebounding.

4:26 p.m. CT:   MSU responded with four straight free-throws, pulls ahead 77-68 with 42.3 seconds – State might be the first lower seed to advance.

4:29 p.m. CT:   What a dirty move from Downey…an intentional foul within 30 seconds while State leads by 11. Completely unneccesary. Followed by a punk move from Conrad…I’m quickly beginning to disrespect this team.

4:32 p.m. CT:   MSU takes the win, 82-68. The Bulldogs are on fire and now suddenly have 21 wins and are in the thick of the NCAA Tournament discussion. South Carolina will be sweating it out on Sunday, and we’ll see an LSU/MSU re-re-match tomorrow. If the double-overtime game in Starkville is any cue, it should be a very entertaining game.

Headed out, will return later in the evening.

7:22 p.m. CT:   Back after a short delay…Alabama struggling to close a 10-point gap against Tennessee. The Vols look to be completely outclassing the Tide at the moment.

7:26 p.m. CT:   Tennessee leads by 11 at the half. ‘Bama will need  a big comeback energy-wise in the second half if they want to compete in this game.

7:45 p.m. CT:   50-32 for Tennessee with 17:04 left…Alabama simply can’t match Tennessee’s talent, shooting or speed. The Tide just look absolutely lazy at this point. They’ve given up.

7:55 p.m. CT:   Almost six minutes into this half and Alabama has yet to score. Tennessee is looking down-right scary at this point…58-32 with 13:56 remaining. Ouch.

8:07 p.m. CT:   Okay this is boring…worst game of the tournament thus far. Tennessee up 65-46 with 8:43 remaining. Tennessee will be playing the winner of tonight’s Florida/Auburn game.

8:09 p.m. CT:   Jamychal Green fouls out with over eight minutes remaining – the big-man will need to learn how not to foul as he matures as a player. Although this is likely his last game as a freshman, he could be the second-best big-man in the conference next season.

Apparently the television lied to me…he has four and hit the bench.

8:14 p.m. CT:   Tabb marches through the lane and dunks on ‘Bama. I can’t count how many times that the Tide have allowed the Vols to drive to the basket unopposed – the team’s interior defense is non-existent.

8:16 p.m. CT:   HUGE alley-oop from Tatum to Smith…75-52, 5:10. Yikes…I imagine Donovan and Lebo both are worried after watching this game.

8:30 p.m. CT:   Tennessee advances 86-62 over Alabama…will play the upcoming Auburn/Florida winner. I’ll take Tennessee against either.

9:49 p.m. CT:   Close game at halftime, as Florida leads by one. Very even game stats-wise…either of these teams will be dominated by Tennessee, I believe.

9:54 p.m. CT:   The difference in a good team and a great team…great teams don’t make stupid mistakes. Stupid mistakes lose games, and both of these teams are making stupid mistakes, although the Tigers are making more of them – thanks to the embarassing coaching of Jeff Lebo. Neither of these teams are NCAA-worthy teams frankly, although Florida is moreso simply due to their level of coaching and chance of advancing.

10:03 p.m. CT:   Auburn has no outside presence in this game…all of their threes have looked awful.

10:41 p.m. CT:   Florida just handed Auburn the game…Florida fails to foul within 30 seconds, Auburn gets a wide-open dunk. HUGE mistake for the Gators – Florida just handed away their NCAA Tournament chances.

Regular season done…postseason begins

Now that regular-season play has concluded, a TON (way more than usual) of SEC teams are fighting for their postseason lives heading toward the conference tournament. I’m going to break down each team, including their pros and cons, strength of schedule, RPI, etc to conclude their chances for each tournament, and what will be needed.

First, here’s a list of the SEC teams, their records, and their seeds for the SEC Tournament based on tiebreakers.

EAST

1. Tennessee (19-11, 10-6)
2. South Carolina (21-8, 10-6)
3. Florida (22-9, 9-7)
4. Kentucky (19-12, 8-8)
5. Vanderbilt (19-11, 8-8)
6. Georgia (12-19, 3-13)

WEST

1. #12 LSU (25-6, 13-3)
2. Auburn (21-10, 10-6)
3. Miss. State (19-12, 9-7)
4. Alabama (17-13, 7-9)
5. Ole Miss (16-14, 7-9)
6. Arkansas (14-15, 2-14)

Now I’ll break down each team’s performance thus far and their outlook for the postseason. A word about the RPI – it tends to lag a day or two, but this at least is a general idea. The quality of wins are determined by RPI, not record. Chances of etc..  means at LEAST the NIT or NCAA.

Alabama

Record:   17-13
SEC Record:   7-9
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #126
Best Overall Win:   @ [23] Tennessee (70-67)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [102] St. Joesph’s (58-48)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [181] Mercer (69-72)
Worst League Loss:   @ [85] Vanderbilt (74-79)

The Crimson Tide finished the regular season with a massive win on the road at Tennessee, but it’s looking like at least two victories in the conference tournament will be necessary to be considered for the NIT. While ‘Bama faces Vanderbilt in the first round, who provided the team with its worst loss of the conference season, the second-round matchup with Tennessee seems to be favorable considered the previous win on the road. The opening round will be difficult, however.

Chances of NIT:   20%
Chances of NCAA:   3%

Arkansas

Record:   14-15
SEC Record:   2-14
Last Ten:   1-9
RPI:   #139
Best Overall Win:   vs. [4] Oklahoma (96-88)
Best League Win:   vs. [126] Alabama (89-80)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [212] Missouri State (57-62)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (67-88)

The Razorbacks are one of the biggest head-scratchers in the conference. After jumping out to a 12-1 start with wins over #4 Oklahaoma and #7 Texas, the fell back to the level that most expected of them approaching the season, as nearly the entire team is underclassmen. The postseason is effectually impossible for the ‘Backs at this point without winning the conference tournament.

Chance of NIT:   <1%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

Auburn

Record:   21-10
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:    8-2
RPI:   #64
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (78-77)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [106] Virginia (58-56)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [181] Mercer (74-78)
Worst League Loss:   vs. [85] Vanderbilt (75-82)

The Tigers are on a serious tear, winning 8 of their last 9 games including a huge 16-point home win over #12 LSU. This certainly thrusts them from off-the-radar into the massive discussion of which SEC teams make the cut. Certainly Auburn looks like a more viable candidate than does either of the floundering East teams in Kentucky or Florida at this point. Auburn could certainly make a stronger argument for their inclusion with a Round Two win over either Florida or Arkansas. Auburn swept Arkansas but fell at home to the Gators earlier in the season 65-68.

Chances of NIT:   >99%
Chances of NCAA: 47%

Florida

Record:   22-9
SEC Record:   9-7
Last Ten:   4-6
RPI:   #48
Best Overall Win:   vs. [13] Washington (86-84)
Best League Win:   vs. [50] South Carolina (97-93)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [188] Georgia (86-88)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [17] Syracuse (83-89)

The Gators seem to be on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament based solely on having lost 3 of their last 4 contests. The team’s RPI is still very respectable and the record is solid, thus the team should be in a good position approaching the post-season.

Chances of NIT:   >99%
Chances of NCAA:   65%

Georgia

Record:   12-19
SEC Record:   3-13
Last Ten:   3-7
RPI:   #188
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (88-86)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [62] Virginia Tech (67-66)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [216] Loyola Chicago (53-74)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (70-75)

The Bulldogs are completely out of the postseason picture without winning the SEC Tournament as the 6-seed for the second year in a row. Although the ‘Dawgs have taken down two of the East’s better teams and have proven their ability to compete with talented competition, Georgia doesn’t seem to have much of a chance at the postseason.

Chance of NIT:   <1%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

Kentucky

Record:   19-12
SEC Record:   8-8
Last Ten:   3-7
RPI:   #80
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (77-58)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [26] West Virginia (54-43)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [188] Georgia (85-90)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   vs. [126] VMI (103-111)

The Wildcats seem to have played their way onto the wrong side of the bubble, having lost their last four consecutive games including one at home to the SEC’s worst team in Georgia. At least two wins would be required for the team to have a decent argument at this point, and road is tough as it runs through Ole Miss and then league-leading LSU.

Chance of NIT:   95%
Chance of NCAA:   40%

LSU

Record:   25-6
SEC Record:   13-3
Last Ten:   8-2
RPI:   #37
Best Overall Win:   @ [23] Tennessee (79-73)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [89] Washington State (64-52)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (59-65)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [28] Texas A&M (61-72)

The Tigers have long-since locked up a bid to the Big Dance, but have taken a pretty massive hit to their seeding after losing two-straight to Vanderbilt (at home) and at Auburn. If LSU can make the league tournament finals, they could receive as high as a 4 or 5 seed.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   >99%

Mississippi State

Record:   19-12
SEC Record:   9-7
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #83
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (80-71)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [54] Western Kentcky (95-67)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [207] Charlotte (64-70)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (85-87)

The Bulldogs have been possibly the streakiest team in the league, as they won 6 of their first 8 league games and then dropped 5 of 6, followed by two consecutive improbable wins to close out the regular season. It seems that the NCAA picture is a long-shot for State, but a couple of winnable games wait to open the SEC Tournament. If the squad can take wins from Georgia and then South Carolina, who fell to MSU 75-70 in Starkville earlier in the season, State would have 21 wins, a top 80 RPI and some semblence of an argument for the NCAA.

Chance of NIT: >99%
Chance of NCAA: 35%

Ole Miss

Record:   16-14
SEC Record:   7-9
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #81
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (81-65)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [137] Morgan State (78-70)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [162] Southern Miss (59-78)
Worst League Loss:   vs. [111] Alabama (69-90)

The Rebels seem to be out of the NCAA Tournament without a league tournament title, but the NIT is still very much within grasp. Having lost 3 of their last 4 does not help, but wins against Kentucky and LSU and possibly one more to make the final game could be enough to enter the NIT discussion.

Chance of NIT:   7%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

South Carolina

Record:   21-8
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:   6-4
RPI:   #50
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (70-69)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [75] Baylor (85-84)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [101] Charleston (80-82)
Worst League Loss:   @ [85] Vanderbilt (83-96)

The Gamecocks appear to be the only SEC team outside of LSU absolutely guaranteed an NCAA spot, although Tennessee is looking good as well. South Carolina has very few quality wins but very few quality losses as well and could edge up ot a 7 or 8 seed with a good showing in the league tournament.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   80%

Tennessee

Record:   19-11
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:   6-4
RPI:   #23
Best Overall Win:   @ [24] Siena (78-64)
Best League Win:   @ [48] Florida (79-75)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [111] Alabama (67-70)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [40] Temple (72-88)

The Volunteers seem to be set for an NCAA bid, although the low amount of wins makes things a bit more scary than they would likely to wish for. An impressive RPI and several big wins should keep the Orange safe on Selection Sunday. A run in the league tournament could even boost the Vols into a respectable 7 or 8 seed.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   91%

Vanderbilt

Record:   19-11
SEC Record:   8-8
Last Ten:   7-3
RPI:   #85
Best Overall Win:   @ [37] LSU (75-67)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [56] VCU (71-66)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [188] Georgia (57-61)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   vs. [168] Illinois-Chicago (55-74)

The Commodores seem to be the 200th SEC team right on the bubble near .500 in the conference, with around 19 wins overall and an RPI in the 80’s. While the RPI is weak for Vandy, the team’s performance lately has been impressive – three in a row, two of them over two of the top three teams in the conference. If the ‘Dores could win a couple in the league tournament – which would require wins over Alabama (who they defeated once already) and Tennessee (who they were swept by) – the team might have a shot at the NCAA Tournament.

Chance of NIT:   90%
Chance of NCAA:   20%

 

 

In closing, I’ll make an interesting observation. Through doing this, it’s become apparent that the NCAA bubble contains an inordinate amount of SEC teams. With that said, it’s almost a given that at least one or two of those teams will make an “improbable” run by winning two or three and make the cut.

The teams that need to prove themselves are, in order of most likely to make it to least…

-Tennessee – likely
-South Carolina – likely
——————————-
-Florida – probable
-Kentucky – unsure
-Auburn – unsure
-Miss. State – unsure
-Vanderbilt – unlikely

 

I will be live-blogging periodically throughout the day beginning Thursday and through Sunday, obviously in discussion about the SEC Tournament. Please feel free to join and comment as I blog – I will be sure to recognize and respond to each comment, and answer each question. Tell your friends!!

18 hours…and postseason outlooks

To all of my faithful readers, I know we’ve hit hard times. I quickly learned that 18 hours of classes plus a serious ongoing blog endeavor wasn’t particularly possible. However, here’s an update on the SEC teams and their chances at the postseason.

The Chance of NCAA is including the team’s perceived ability to win the SEC Tournament. Chance of NIT is in reference to that team’s chance of at LEAST making the NIT.

Alabama (16-13, 6-9) (RPI: #122)

Remaining games:
@ Tennessee (Sun, 3/8)

The Crimson Tide would need a win against Tennessee and at least one or two in the SEC Tournament to sniff the NIT.

Chance of NCAA: 2%
Chance of NIT: 15%

Arkansas (14-13, 2-12) (RPI: #124)

Remaining games:
vs. Ole Miss (Wed, 3/4)
@ Vanderbilt (Sun, 3/8)

The Razorbacks would need to win their final two games and at least two, maybe three in the SEC Tournament to even make an argument for the NIT.

Chance of NCAA: <1%
Chance of NIT: 2%

Auburn (20-10, 9-6) (RPI: #72)

Remaining games:
vs. #12 LSU (Sat, 3/7)

The Tigers have won 7 of their last 8 and are the hottest team in the conference at the moment not named LSU. Auburn has a very good argument for the NCAA, but that spot will be a battle with Tennessee, Florida and Kentucky. If the Tigers can pick up a win against big-time LSU or take one or two in the SEC Tournament, the squad should see the NCAA for the first time in a while.

Chance of NCAA: 40%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Florida (21-8, 8-6) (RPI: #50)

Remaining games:
@ Mississippi State (Wed, 3/4)
vs. Kentucky (Sat, 3/7)

The Gators are squarely on the massive SEC NCAA bubble, and their final two games could define their postseason tournament. Florida has lost 4 of their last 6, and the team can not afford a loss to MSU and the Kentucky game could be for the SEC’s final NCAA spot.

Chance of NCAA: 60%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Georgia (11-18, 2-12) (RPI: #205)

Remaining games:
@ Kentucky (Wed, 3/4)
vs. South Carolina (Sat, 3/7)

The Bulldogs will need another miracle to reach the postseason for the second-straight year.

Chance of NCAA: <1%
Chance of NIT: <1%

Kentucky (19-10, 8-6) (RPI: #67)

Remaining games:
vs. Georgia (Wed, 3/4)
@ Florida (Sat, 3/7)

The Wildcats are in a situation very similar to that of Florida’s, except that Kentucky has a worse RPI. With losses in 3 of their last 4 contests, Kentucky can’t afford to slip up against Georgia and still might need a win in Gainesville to secure an NCAA bid. A decent performance in the SEC Tournament wouldn’t hurt either.

Chance of NCAA: 55%
Chance of NIT: >99%

LSU (25-4, 13-1) (RPI: #24)

Remaining games:
vs. Vanderbilt (Wed, 3/4)
@ Auburn (Sat, 3/7)

LSU has nothing but NCAA seeding to worry about at this point. If the Tigers can pull off a sweep and win out, including the SEC Tournament, the team could be looking at a 1 or 2 seed.

Chance of NCAA: >99%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Mississippi State (17-12, 7-7) (RPI: #96)

Remaining games:
vs. Florida (Wed, 3/4)
@ Ole Miss (Sat, 3/7)

Mississippi State is possibly the coldest team in the SEC outside of Georgia, having lost 5 of their last 6. Once seeming NIT lock, MSU now seems to find themselves on the NIT bubble. MSU would need at least 3 or 4 more wins to eve be considered for a long-shot chance at the NCAA, and one or two more to be a safe NIT pick.

Chance of NCAA: 5%
Chance of NIT: 60%

Ole Miss  (15-13, 6-8) (RPI: #78)

Remaining games:
@ Arkansas (Wed, 3/4)
vs. Mississippi State (Sat, 3/7)

Ole Miss would nearly need to win the SEC Tournament, or least make the finals to even think of the NCAA’s. The NIT also seems like a longshot, although winning out in the regular season and a win or two in the SEC Tournament could put the Rebels in the discussion.

Chance of NCAA: 1%
Chance of NIT: 20%

South Carolina (20-7, 9-5) (RPI: #42)

Remaining games:
vs. Tennessee (Thur, 3/5)
@ Georgia (Sat, 3/7)

The Gamecocks appear to be the only SEC team outside of LSU to be a lock for the NCAA. If the squad won out, the team could pull out a 4 or 5 seed.

Chance of NCAA: 98%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Tennessee (18-10, 9-5) (RPI: #21)

Remaining games:
@ South Carolina (Thur, 3/5)
vs. Alabama (Sun, 3/8)

Tennessee seems to be safely the SEC’s third NCAA spot, although the team wouldn’t be well-advised to lose out. The Vols have an impressive RPI, however, so they should be shooed into the Big Dance.

Chance of NCAA: 75%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Vanderbilt (17-11, 6-8) (RPI: #104)

Remaining games:
@ #12 LSU
vs. Arkansas

The Commodores are a dark horse contender for both postseason tournaments, but a poor RPI will hold them back. If the ‘Dores can pull out a win in Baton Rouge and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament, they could have a solid argument for the NCAA. To make the NIT, two more wins could put them in contention.

Chance of NCAA: 20%
Chance of NIT: 45%

SEC’s final exhibition game…

On the eve of the SEC’s regular-season debut, Alabama wrapped up the league’s exhibition slate against Belhaven.

Alabama [97] vs. Belhaven [43]: Not much didn’t go right for the Tide on Thursday evening, as every major role-player stepped up and played their part in the well-oiled machine. Senario Hillman, who will be looked toward to lead the team in scoring, did so in this game with 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting. Freshman Jamychal Green, who ‘Bama needs a huge season out of, played much better in his second exhibition outing with 14 points and 7 rebounds, although 8 of those points came from the charity stripe. Green also stole the ball 5 times and blocked 3 shots. Big-time player Alonzo Gee put up 18 points and 6 rebounds, while returning former All-American Ronald Steele handed out 8 assists and turned the ball over just once. Even usually-inept forward Yamene Coleman shot 6-of-7 for 12 points in 17 minutes. The only scary stat was UA only outrebounding the D-II team 47-43.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 26-to-12 assist-to-turnover ratio

2008-09 Schedule breakdowns: Alabama

Some notes as we get started with these…

These non-conference picks take into account MANY things, including schedule placement (before or after a big game), home or away, loss of players, amount of leaders on the team, and even a bit of randomness as well. So if your team is predicted to lose a game that you believe they won’t – understand it’s not because I don’t think your team is better, but that every team loses games they shouldn’t because of random variables.

Conference-wise, my plan was to get a general feel beforehand about the record each team would achieve, and take that as an idea towards my picks, but not as a solid rule.

There may be (hopefully not) a few mistakes in games’ locations. If you catch one, please let me know and I’ll correct it. Also, I will not be predicting games in which at least the team’s opponent is one of two teams, such as in-season tournament finals and such.

Overall records reflect just regular-season games, and not postseason games nor the previously mentioned games in which the opponent isn’t at least one of two teams. Thus, they will not be entirely accurate in the amount of total games.

Lastly, please feel free to ask questions and give your predictions or opinions as comments, I’ll be sure to respond quickly!

Wins are in bold, losses are in italics. An asterisk is for toss-up games, and I did not classify SEC games as tossups because nearly every game would be one.

These for Alabama.

vs. Mercer
vs. Florida A&M
vs. Oregon – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. North Carolina/Chaminade – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. TBA – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. Alabama A&M
vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
vs. Texas A&M***
vs. Tennessee State
vs. Chattanooga***
vs. Yale
vs. Quincy
vs. Georgia Tech
@ Clemson
———-
vs. LSU
@ Mississippi State
@ Auburn
vs. Ole Miss
vs. Kentucky
@ Arkansas
vs. Georgia
@ Vanderbilt
@ LSU
vs. South Carolina
@ Florida
vs. Mississippi State
vs. Arkansas
@ Ole Miss
vs. Auburn
@ Tennessee

This gives the Tide an (18-11) record overall and (8-8) in the conference. UA would likely need a win or two in the SEC Tournament to bolster their NCAA resume, otherwise the squad would end up as a 1-2 seed in the NIT.

SEC Schedules: Alabama

Apologies for the absence, but we’re back to begin breaking down the SEC teams’ schedules. We’ll begin with Alabama. Keep in mind only the SEC games versus the opposing division are posted, because the games versus the same division don’t change.

vs. Faulkner
vs. Belhaven
vs. Mercer
vs. Florida A&M
vs. Oregon – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. North Carolina/Chaminade – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. TBA – Maui Invitational (Maui, Hawaii)
vs. Alabama A&M
vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
vs. Texas A&M
vs. Tennessee State
vs. Chattanooga
vs. Yale
vs. Quincy
vs. Georgia Tech
@ Clemson
———-
vs. Kentucky
vs. Georgia
@ Vanderbilt
vs. South Carolina
@ Florida
@ Tennessee

The Crimson Tide are the overwhelming favorite to win the Western Division this season, but their SEC schedule will be brutal, with trips to possibly the top three teams from the East.

As for the non-conference slate, Gottfried layered the schedule with home games, so the Tide could be artificially inflated in the polls approaching SEC play. The Maui Invitational has a great field this season, and if the Tide can get past the Ducks, they’d be forgiven for falling to UNC. If Alabama could somehow take down the Tarheels, the excitement might be warrented. A trip to Clemson will serve as the most difficult game for the Tide outside of the mid-season tournament.

Aggressive underneath…

Now we’ve made it to minutes per free throws attempted. This again should be dominated by forwards and aggressive guards. However, the main difference here is that free throw percentages aren’t as relevant, but instead the turnover rate is key. This category measures how aggressive these players are in the paint and if this aggression is working in their favor by free throw attempts heavily outweighing their number of turnovers.

MINUTES PER FREE THROWS ATTEMPTED

While the aim is for this number to be low, it’s best combined with a solid free throw percentage and low turnover rate.

1. A.J. Ogilvy, Vanderbilt (3.9) – As if this phenomenal freshman hadn’t done enough, he leads yet another statistical category, this time in how often he gets to the stripe. His aggression and assertiveness under the basket is unmatched offensively, and he improves upon that with a very solid 76.9% touch – although his 10.5 m/to rate could be improved upon.

2. Elgin Bailey, Mississippi State (5.2) – Bailey seems to have a lot of potential under the basket, with solid shooting percentages and rebounding figures as a freshman. His aggression in the paint, however, goes unrewarded as he hit an absolutely abysmal 39.0% from the stripe with 41 attempts (he hits a much better 47.4% from the field). If Bailey wants to step into the shoes of graduating forward Charles Rhodes, he absolutely must improve from the charity stripe.

3. Cameron Tatum, Tennessee (5.3) – Very similar to Bailey but with much less playing time is Tatum, who shot well from the field but managed just a 42.9% effort from the free throw line in 14 attempts. Similarly, he must improve that stroke before he looks to contribute for the Vols. A 9.3 m/to rate also should improve.

4. Korvotney Barber, Auburn (5.6) – Shockingly, Barber is the 3rd out of the top 4 in this category to shoot less than 45% from the free throw line (43.8%), although Barber’s misses made a much larger impact on his team, as he started 29 of 32 games for the Tigers. Auburn simply doesn’t have a choice, with limited options inside., although his 11.5 m/to ratio is at least decent.

5. J.P. Prince, Tennessee (5.8) – Although his shooting touch is still terrible at 55.7%, Prince’s m/to rate is an acceptable 11.3 and his touch from the field is a solid 49.7% – especially for a guard. Prince should continue to improve his free throw shooting and outside mark (15.4%) if the Vols are to seriously filter him into the starting lineup.

6. Nick Calathes, Florida (5.9) – Calathes is simply beneficial to his team regardless of what he is doing. Included is his knack for attacking the lane and drawing fouls, shooting 72.4% from the charity stripe as a freshman. This dynamic guard should join A.J. Ogilvy as preseason SEC Player of the Year favorites.

7. Zach Graham, Ole Miss (6.3) – The third-straight guard in the category, Graham would have been an absolute star if he had started every game last season, with incredible numbers from long range (43.3%) and his aggressive floor-play. A 13.9 m/to ratio is also impressive for a freshman guard.

8. Tyler Smith, Tennessee (6.4) – Smith, possibly the most dynamic player in the conference, got to the line 160 times and hit 70.6% of those shots. His 11.3 m/to ratio is especially impressive considering the amount of time in which he handled the ball.

8. Alonzo Gee, Alabama (6.4) – Gee’s touch from the charity stripe is far from impressive for a guard (67.9%), but his 15.8 m/to ratio is excellent considering his role as perhaps the most aggressive player in the conference.

10. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU (6.6) – Mitchell only saw three games, but excelled in those games from the free throw stripe, hitting 8 of 10 of his attempts. However, his ball-handling was nothing short of poor, as he turned the ball over every 7.3 minutes. In perspective, he would have given the ball up an average of five times if he had played 40 full minutes.

Not too much surprising on this front, as few would argue that these 10 players are the most aggressive in the conference. Some to their remorse, and others to their own benefit. To coaches, it’s absolutely vital for a player with lots of talent and potential to get to the basket, while those who only think they have that talent should know when to back off.

Next, we move on to the ever-important rebounding category with minutes per rebound.

Free throw gurus…

Up next is minutes per free throws made. While obviously inside men have the advantage here, the forwards and centers tend not to shoot as well from the free throw stripe as the guards do, and so there’s always a chance the more aggressive guards will show up in the lists.

MINUTES PER FREE THROW MADE

This number should be as small as possible for effective free throw shooters, especially forwards. For guards, the number is only okay to be small if the player can hit their free throws and get into the lane without turning the ball over.

1. A.J. Ogilvy, Vanderbilt (5.1) – It’s rare to find a reliable big man who shoots 76.9% from the stripe, but Ogilvy once again shows his level-headed approach to the game by leading his second category thus far. Leading the SEC in this category as a freshman is very impressive.

2. Nick Calathes, Florida (8.2) – And yet another fabulous freshman leading the category. Calathes not only shot 72.4% from the free throw line and got to the line 199 times, he led the Gators in scoring and had a better than 2/1 assist to turnover ratio, proving his excellent decision-making.

3. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU (8.3) – This is a bit of an outlier, considering Mitchell only saw 3 games. However, he played 22 minutes per game in those three games, and hit 8 out of his 10 free throw attempts.

4. Tyler Smith, Tennessee (9.0) – The ever-dynamic and talented Smith was a force inside for the Vols this season, including at the stripe, where he hit 70.6% of his attempts.

5. Alonzo Gee, Alabama (9.4) – This is a case of Gee’s affinity to avoid an organized offense and instead charge the lane, as Gee only shot 67.9% from the free throw line but got there 156 times in 994 minutes.

5. Jodie Meeks, Kentucky (9.4) – Another way in which Meeks shows his very high potential is at the charity stripe, where he shot 79.4% and got there a lot for a guard without turning the ball over much.

7. Joe Duffy, Vanderbilt (9.5) – Another skewed stat, as Duffy only saw 19 minutes and hit both of his two attempted free throws.

7. Zach Graham, Ole Miss (9.5) – Much like Gee, Graham has a tendency to drive the ball too often, turn the ball over too much, and only hits 66.2% of his free throws.

9. Patrick Patterson, Kentucky (10.3) – Patterson is again much like Ogilvy, just less so. He’s insanely talented in the paint and gets to the stripe effectively, where he hits a solid 73.1%.

10. J.P. Prince, Tennessee (10.4) – And yet another overly aggressive guard, as Prince shoots a miserable 55.7% from the free throw line and turned the ball over at a very high rate.

I’m somewhat surprised at the number of guards (5) in this list, and three of them shouldn’t be shooting as many as they are.

Next up will be minutes per free throw attempted.

Ball-hogs…

Next up is minutes/field goal attempts. While not necessarily ball-hogs, most players who fall in that category will show up in this list. Keep in mind that if you’re draining 50-60% of your shots it’s okay to hog the ball while reading the list – and with that said, here’s the top 10.

MINUTES PER FIELD GOALS ATTEMPTED

This number doesn’t necessarily have an ideal level, but does point out which players are the least afraid to put up a shot. Shooting percentages and numbers of turnovers help to put this category in perspective.

1. Marcus Thornton, LSU (2.1) – Thornton was possibly the single most important player to his team last season, averaging nearly 20 points per game and ranking second in the conference in field goal attempts. Thornton quite obviously was not hurting his team with his attempts, hitting 43.6% of his shots and 37.7% of them from behind the arc. His rate of turnovers was also low, only turning the ball over once every 15.3 minutes.

2. Devan Downey, South Carolina (2.3) – While Thornton ranked second in field goals attempted, Downey led the conference in that category. Downey is slightly less efficient than Thornton, hitting 42.3% of his shots and 35.1% from long range. Downey’s turnover rate is slightly worse also, at 13.8, but more impressive considering his position on the floor.

3. Austin Steed, South Carolina (2.4) – In just six games, Steed proved he was unafraid of being the shooter, and still hit 6-of-12. Steed and Holmes provide a very talented frontcourt entering their sophomore season.

3. Chris Warren, Ole Miss (2.4) – Another fearless freshman, Warren carried the Rebels to another 20+ win season. Warren attempted 127 more shots than any other player on the squad, but still shot just under 40% from the field and 38.9% of his three-point attempts.

5. Alonzo Gee, Alabama (2.5) – While Gee shot well from the field (41.9%), too many of them came from behind the arc as he just hit 31.9% of his 113 attempts from that distance. Although Gee is known for questionable decision-making, his 15.8 turnover rate isn’t bad.

5. Kelvin Lewis, Auburn (2.5) – This is one of the bad cases of ball-hogging. Lewis saw 21 games and about 8.5 minutes per game, but attempted 71 shots and only brought down 29.6% of them. The sophomore-to-be guard shot a similar 29.2% from three and simply should work on his shooting touch before he allows himself to put up so many shots.

7. Zam Fredrick, South Carolina (2.6) – Further proving how few players the Gamecocks relied on last season, Fredrick serves as the third USC player in the top seven most prolific shooters in the conference last season. Fredrick shot decently well, and took care of the ball last season.

7. A.J. Ogilvy, Vanderbilt (2.6) – Ogilvy dominated in the paint last season for the Commodores as a freshman. Offensive efficiency was Ogilvy’s strong-point, shooting 58.8% from the field, while his 10.5 turnover rate is a bit high. With that said, Ogilvy can only help the ‘Dores by taking as many shots as possible.

9. Josh Dollard, Auburn (2.7) – A common theme amongst this group of players and the teams they play for is a lack of depth or balance. Auburn is certainly no exception, and Dollard led the Tigers in most shots taken per minute played. Dollard, a senior-to-be forward, shot very well from the field – not so well from three – and turned the ball over a bit much.

9. Rasheem Barrett, Auburn (2.7) – Barrett is yet another Tiger unafraid of attempting shots, but is far less efficient at doing so than Dollard. Barrett shot just 37.8% from the field and 29.7% from behind the arc, although his ball-handling was acceptable. Barrett certainly falls in the “should shoot less” category.

9. David Huertas, Ole Miss (2.7) – Again accentuating how guard-reliant the Rebels were last season (where much more weight should have been given to Curtis and Williams), Huertas is the second sharp-shooting ball-handler on the Rebel staff that ranked in this Top 10. Huertas will look to anchor the very guard-heavy roster next season as a junior.

9. Troy Brewer, Georgia (2.7) – Brewer is yet another freshman who was too out of touch with his shooting ability, and thus hurt his team last season. Brewer saw just 7.9 minutes per game and yet put up 93 attempts, hitting just 30.1% of his shots.

What is noticeable already is the common theme among the teams with multiple representatives on the previous two lists. Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Ole Miss – and LSU could be included in this list – are all squads who have little depth and required two or three (or one, in LSU’s case) players to bear the load of the rest of the team.

Surprisingly lacking this list is Patrick Patterson from UK, who placed as the fifth-highest most efficient scorer and yet only attempted one field goal every 3.2 minutes. If I were Gillespie, I’d be sure to increase Patterson’s attempts and touches.

Next up will be Minutes Per Three Pointer Made.

No new news…

Nothing new on the Jamont Gordon front, as he nor his “agent” has released anything about a decision. Apparently Gordon replaced his Facebook image (previously a NBA logo) back to his own image…if that means anything.

While we wait on a decision or some word about what’s going on with Gordon, here’s a list of undrafted SEC players…

ALABAMA

—Mykal Riley (14.9ppg, 5.2rpg, 43.3% 3PT)

MISSISSIPPI STATE

—Charles Rhodes (17.4ppg, 7.8rpg, 56.2% FG)

TENNESSEE

—Chris Lofton (15.5ppg, 3.2rpg, 38.4% 3PT)

Nothing too exciting here. Riley and Lofton are both excellent shooters, but offer little else at the next level. Rhodes has muscle and rebounding underneath, and could eventually get to an NBA roster if he develops his face-up game in Europe.

NBA Draft results, including a shocker…

In a surprising NBA draft, Joe Crawford from Kentucky squeaked into the last picks of the second round while First-Team All-SEC and SEC Player of the Year runner-up Jamont Gordon from Mississippi State was not drafted.

Gordon, who was somehow banking on being drafted – predicted as high as 25th on various sites – now has a mess on his hands. Gordon has an agent representing him, but speculation is that he did not actually pay the guy – which would leave Gordon elligible to return to MSU. If this speculation regarding his agent is incorrect and payment was made, then the junior would not be able to return to school.

Added to the mix are rumors that Gordon’s eagerness for the next level overtook his desire to keep up his grades or attend classes last semester, and that he would have some work to do if he wanted to return to school this summer to improve his GPA – if he would be able to fix the situation at all.

Three weeks ago, the power/point was seemingly quoted as stating that if he were to not be selected in the draft, he would return to school.

All of this is speculation at the moment, and the situation should be clearer tomorrow. I’ll report at that time. One thing is for sure, if Gordon were to somehow return to school, he would be an overwhelming favorite for SEC Player of the Year and Mississippi State’s chances in the Western Division and in the SEC as a whole would be far different.

Here’s a list of SEC player selected in the draft and the teams that chose them.

FIRST ROUND

#14 overall pick: Anthony Randolph, LSU – Freshman, 15.6ppg, 8.5rpg, 2.3bpg – Golden State Warriors

#16 overall pick: Marreese Speights, Florida – Sophomore, 14.5ppg, 8.1rpg, 62.4% FG – Philadelphia 76ers

SECOND ROUND

#39 overall pick: Sonny Weems, Arkansas – Senior, 15.0ppg, 4.5rpg, 37.0% 3PT – Chicago Bulls

#49 overall pick: Richard Hendrix, Alabama – Junior, 17.8ppg, 10.1rpg, 2.0bpg – Golden State Warriors

#51 overall pick: Shan Foster, Vanderbilt – Senior, 20.3ppg, 4.9rpg, 46.9% 3PT – Dallas Mavericks

#58 overall pick: Joe Crawford, Kentucky – Senior, 17.9ppg, 3.6rpg, 36.4% 3PT – Los Angeles Lakers

More coverage on Jamont Gordon and other undrafted SEC players tomorrow…

Who’s returning what…

Here’s a list of each team, ranked from top to bottom, on percentages of returning points and rebounds. This is about as official as it can get, as all of these statistics were taken from the schools’ websites. This list includes transfers, NBA draft losses, and graduates, but not returning red-shirts.

POINTS

1. South Carolina – 91.18%

2. Florida – 77.39%

3. LSU – 71.52%

4. Georgia – 66.03%

5. Auburn – 65.77%

6. Ole Miss – 63.43%

7. Alabama – 48.19%

8. Kentucky – 46.19%

9. Tennessee – 44.43%

10. Mississippi State – 42.31%

11. Vanderbilt – 40.72%

12. Arkansas – 30.16%

REBOUNDS

1. South Carolina – 84.64%

2. Florida – 69.98%

3. LSU – 67.97%

4. Auburn – 67.11%

5. Georgia – 63.28%

6. Kentucky – 62.85%

7. Tennessee – 61.67%

8. Mississippi State – 54.08%

9. Alabama – 51.95%

10. Vanderbilt – 48.75%

11. Ole Miss – 44.51%

12. Arkansas – 36.78%

—Any drastic difference in a team’s place in the lists could point to a potential problem this coming season. For example, Ole Miss returns 63.43% of their points but just 44.51% of their rebounds. Thus, the Rebels are losing a signficant amount of inside presence but return a good number of guards. Rebounding and post presence could be a challenge for Ole Miss this season.

—South Carolina returns a surprising amount of depth all-around, and should be significantly more competitive than last season. The big question mark will be the new coach, and how smoothly a new system will be incorporated.

—With the amount of talent on their roster, Florida is poised to be among the nation’s elite in the next year or two. It’s possible this coming season, if the Gators can replace Speights quickly enough.

—Alabama’s fate will be almost entirely tied to the return of Ronald Steele and the incoming Jamychal Green. The Tide return a below-average amount of scoring and rebounding, so Steele’s decision-making and scoring along with Green’s rebounding will prove vital to this year’s success.

—Arkansas returns so little, it will be very difficult for them to compete this season. The ‘Backs could suffer the largest drop of any team this coming season.

Hendrix remains in the NBA, Steele returns…

Richard Hendrix, Alabama’s high-quality big-man who averaged a double-double last season, will not be returning to school next year.

Hendrix averaged 17.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game last season, and would have been a senior in 2008-09.

While Hendrix is a great talent, his stock would have been much higher if he had returned this next season. Alabama would have been poised to dominate the Western Division, and Hendrix’s number likely would have increased, despite the acquisition of five-star 6′8″ incoming freshman power forward Jamychal Green.

This leaves Alabama in an interesting position. While Steele returns to provide the Tide with an excellent decision-maker at point guard, he won’t be dynamic enough to be a reliable scoring threat. He shoots well, but not often. Alonzo Gee is very talented with the ball, but not the best decision-maker. With the loss of Riley to graduation, Hollinger will be relied upon heavily to complement the post offensively from the outside.

Down low, there is now very little experienced talent. While Coleman is a Junior, he is a “work in progress” that never progressed. Jemison is also now a junior, and has some talent, especially on the boards, but not reliable enough to score heavily. As strange as it sounds, Knox is much more unproven than Jemison, yet seems to have more talent and potential, entering his sophomore season. Noone can deny Green’s talent level, but relying heavily upon freshman can often have disastrous results.

Hendrix’s exit certainly leaves the Tide with some question marks for this coming season. However, with the mass exodus across the board in the Western Division, UA should still be favored to win the division. Just not by as much.

Upcoming draft…

All eyes are on tomorrow’s draft deadline, and I’ll be reporting as soon as I know something. The major question mark is Alabama’s Richard Hendrix. If the Tide lose the big man, experienced talent in the paint will be hard to come by and this could leave the West open for a good battle. If Hendrix returns, Alabama could/should compete for an overall conference title.

Incoming Rivals Top-150 recruits…

To begin to grasp some amount of perspective regarding who is returning for this coming SEC season, I thought now [just before the NBA draft] a good time to review which SEC schools will be bringing in the top talent out of high-school. Here’s a current listing of committed players…

• #5 overall – Scotty Hopson – Tennessee (6′5″, 185lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: Tennessee, Texas, Cincinatti, Kentucky, Louisville, Mississippi State
  - “Bouncy wing with a ton of upside”
• #21 overall – Jamychal Green – Alabama (6′8″, 225lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Marquette, Ole Miss, Virginia
  - “Athletic forward with developing skills”
• #26 overall – Eloy Vargas – Florida (6′10″, 210lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Florida, Florida State, Louisville, Miami-FL, Pittsburgh, Clemson
  - “A skilled forward”
• #27 overall – Kenny Kadji – Florida (6′10″, 240lb. – Center/Forward)
  Offers: Florida, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, Connecticut
  - “Long, athletic forward”
• #28 overall – DeAndre Liggins – Kentucky (6′5″, 190lb. – Point Guard/Forward)
  Offers: Kentucky, Memphis, Illinois, Kansas
  - “Point forward with strong passing skills”
• #30 overall – Howard Thompkins – Georgia (6′8″, 225lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Florida, Florida State
  - “A very skilled power forward”
• #38 overall – Tony Mitchell – Alabama (6′6″, 185lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Alabama, Cincinatti, Clemson, Georgia, South Carolina
  - “Athletic forward who puts up numbers”
• #40 overall – Emmanuel Negedu – ? (6′6″, 225lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Memphis
  - “Extremely athletic long forward” – Of note, Negedu recently de-committed to Arizona and is one of few unsigned top players. Indiana is seen as a favorite due to his AAU ties to the state, while the Vols seem a longshot.
• #41 overall – Rashanti Harris – ? (6′8″, 238lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Mississippi State, Ole Miss
  - “Athletic forward with upside” – Harris will likely attend prep school, as he does not qualify this season academically. MSU is seen as a clear favorite, as Harris resides just 25 miles away.
• #43 overall – Darius Miller – Kentucky (6′6″, 215lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Kentucky, Louisville, Miami-FL, Tennessee, Xavier, Cincinatti, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas State
  - “Great defensive instincts”
• #52 overall – Jeff Taylor – Vanderbilt (6′7″, 198lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Vanderbilt, Texas
  - “Putting up big numbers out west”
• #53 overall – Renaldo Woolridge – Tennessee (6′8″, 205lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Tennessee, Georgetown, USC
  - “Intruiging forward having a strong junior season”
• #57 overall – Romero Osby – Mississippi State (6′8″, 230lb. – Power Forward/Point)
  Offers: Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Kentucky, Memphis
  - “Distributing point forward”
• #60 overall – Courtney Fortson – Arkansas (5′10″, 175lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Arkansas, Florida State, Kentucky, Tennessee
  - “Dynamic point guard who can score”
• #65 overall – Terrance Henry – Ole Miss (6′9″, 190lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Miami-FL
  - “Multidimensional, long forward”
• #67 overall – Bud Mackey – ? (6′4″, 192lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: None
  - “Long combo guard who can make plays” – Mackey shows interest in Florida, but Cincinatti is seen as a clear favorite, among Georgia Tech and Xavier.
• #68 overall – Philip Jurick – Tennessee (6′10″, 250lb. – Center)
  Offers: Tennessee, Auburn, Clemson, Indiana, Kentucky, Miami-FL, Michigan, Ole Miss
  - “Athletic post with upside”
• #72 overall – Lance Goulbourne – Vanderbilt (6′7″, 215lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Vanderbilt, Virginia, Marquette, Michigan, Rutgers
  - “Bouncy forward makes plays inside and outside”
• #78 overall – Jason Henry – Arkansas (6′7″, 190lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Arkansas, Cincinatti, Clemson, Louisville, Oklahoma, Tennessee
  - “A multi-dimensional perimeter player”
• #83 overall – Demarquis Bost – Mississippi State (6′2″, 170lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: Mississippi State, Virginia, High Point, Cincinatti, Florida State, Miami-FL
  - “Explosive guard who defends”
• #87 overall – Steve Tchiengang – Vanderbilt (6′8″, 230lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Vanderbilt, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
  - “Athletic wing who can slash and shoot”
• #89 overall – Andrew Steele – Alabama (6′3″, 195lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: Alabama, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee
  - “A tough guard in the mold of his brother Ron Steele”
• #91 overall – Ray Shipman – Florida (6′3″, 180lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Florida, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Miami-FL, Ole Miss, Clemson
  - “Solid wing who can score”
• #94 overall – Brad Tinsley – Vanderbilt (6′3″, 180lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Butler, Pepperdine, Arizona State, Oregon, USC
  - “Solid combo guard with an all-around game”
• #96 overall – Allan Chaney – Florida (6′8″, 220lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Florida, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Virginia, Marist, Boston College
  - “Big bodied post emerged July [sic]“
• #102 overall – Erving Walker – Florida (5′6″, 140lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Florida, Villanova
  - “Dynamic undersized guard”
• #104 overall – Rotnei Clarke – Arkansas (6′0″, 175lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Gonzaga, Tulsa, Oral Roberts
  - “One of the best shooters in the class”
• #105 overall – Frankie Sullivan – Auburn (6′1″, 185lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Virginia, UAB
  - “Strong penetrating combo guard”
• #117 overall – Travis Leslie – Georgia (6′4″, 185lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Penn State, South Carolina, Clemson
  - “Premier athlete on the wing”
• #120 overall – Delwan Graham – LSU (6′5″, 180lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina, South Florida, UCF, Auburn, Cincinatti
  - “Aggressive forward with a top notch motor”
• #128 overall – Kenny Gabriel – Auburn (6′8″, 197lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Auburn, Miami-FL, South Florida, Charlotte, East Carolina, Winthrop
  - “Versatile forward with length”
• #129 overall – Brandon Moore – Arkansas (6′9″, 180lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Arkansas, Marquette, Tulane, LA-Lafayette, TCU
  - “Super shot blocker and rebounder”
• #130 overall – Storm Warren – LSU (6′6″, 215lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: LSU, USC, UCLA, LA-Tech, LA-Monroe, Baylor, Florida
  - “Defensive presence around the basket”
• #134 overall – Murphy Holloway – Ole Miss (6′7″, 215lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Clemson, DePaul
  - “Athletic wing with a super motor”
• #144 overall – Dustin Ware – Georgia (6′0″, 155lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Georgia, SE Missouri State
  - “Consumate playmaker”

A ranking of SEC schools’ recruiting classes is to come…

Pickett suspended indefinitely, transfers…

Alabama’s star freshman guard from 2007/08, Rico Pickett, was suspended on April 6th for the standard “violation of team rules”.

Continuing the contraversy under Gottfried, Pickett then opted to transfer, as did little-used backup Justin Tubbs. The loss of Pickett will sting a bit, but Tubbs shouldn’t effect the team very much.

Alabama joins high-profile Maui Invitational field for 2008…

Alabama has accepted an invitation to join seven other high-profile teams in competition at the upcoming season’s Maui Invitational.

Other attendees include North Carolina, Indiana, Notre Dame, Texas, Oregon, and St. Joe’s. Oh yeah, and Chaminade.

Interesting to me that the SEC choice was Alabama. Although the Tide should be competitive this season, the logical choice would have been Tennessee or Florida, in my opinion.

With that said, we should all be backing the Tide whole-heartedly in the name of the Southeastern Conference!

My predictions vs. real life…

Now that the season is long gone, it’s time to analyze how well each SEC team did compared to my pre-season expectations of them. Here’s a basic look, per team.

Alabama

Predicted Record: 19-12, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (1 or 2 seed)

Actual Record: 16-15, 5-11
Actual Postseason: None

I underestimated the impact that the loss of Steele’s decision-making would have on the Tide. The only non-conference game I got wrong was UA’s loss to Belmont, but the Tide tanked in-conference, finishing 5th in the West.

Arkansas

Predicted Record: 25-5, 12-4
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (4 or 5 seed)

Actual Record: 20-10, 9-7
Actual Postseason: NCAA (9 seed)

Arkansas simply never found their offense and Beverly lost some of his touch. I missed all three of the Razorbacks’ losses in the non-conference, and the ‘Backs never challenged for the overall title, finishing 2nd in the West.

Auburn

Predicted Record: 19-10, 8-8
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (10 or 11 seed)

Actual Record: 14-15, 4-12
Actual Postseason: None

Apparently experience doesn’t equal more consistent play on the plains, as almost the same team fell back into typical Auburn standards. Injuries and suspensions hurt the squad, but it doesn’t seem like that compensated for my overestimation of the Tigers.

Florida

Predicted Record: 21-9, 8-8
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (10 or 11 seed)

Actual Record: 21-10, 8-8
Actual Postseason: NIT (2 seed)

Although I somehow managed to pull off some funky math, I was almost spot-on about the Gators. I figured the squad would look impressive in the non-conference, and end up even in the conference. I figured, despite a weak RPI, the team would be invited to the NCAA Tournament based on the previous year’s national title, but was wrong.

Georgia

Predicted Record: 16-11, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (3 or 4 seed)

Actual Record: 13-16, 4-12
Actual Postseason: NCAA (14 seed)

Despite overestimating the Bulldogs, the squad actually surpassed my postseason expectations due to a now-infamous late-season surge that sent them to a SEC Tournament Championship and an NCAA bid. Although the ‘Dawgs put up a good fight, 3-seed Xavier ended their run in the first round.

Kentucky

Predicted Record: 23-8, 11-5
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (3 or 4 seed)

Actual Record: 18-11, 12-4
Actual Postseason: NCAA (11 seed)

I was dead wrong about the Wildcats’ non-conference performance. The ‘Cats floundered, including home losses to San Diego and Gardner-Webb by a combined total of 25 points. However, Gillespie righted the sinking ship by performing well in-conference and barely surpassing my expectations.

LSU

Predicted Record: 11-18, 3-13
Predicted Postseason: None

Actual Record: 13-17, 6-10
Actual Postseason: None

The Tigers were looking to prove me exactly right, losing 12 of 14 games in the middle of the season. However, Brady was then fired and the team went on to win four straight conference games and beat my conference prediction by three games.

Mississippi State

Predicted Record: 26-4, 13-3
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (1-3 seed)

Actual Record: 21-9, 12-4
Actual Postseason: NCAA (8 seed)

As the Bulldogs adjusted to a new offense, there were growing pains I didn’t expect in the form of losses to South Alabama, Miami-FL, Miami-OH, and Southern Illinois. Ironically, if those early-season stumbles had been avoided, MSU would have nearly matched the predictions. State did go on to win the West and compete for the overall title, though.

Ole Miss

Predicted Record: 13-17, 3-13
Predicted Postseason: None

Actual Record: 21-9, 7-9
Actual Postseason: NIT (2 seed)

Kennedy inspired this team to an excellent non-conference showing, but the team lost its magic in the confines of the SEC. Warren proved a difference-maker, as the team greatly surpassed my expectations.

South Carolina

Predicted Record: 14-16, 4-12
Predicted Postseason: None

Actual Record: 13-17, 5-11
Actual Postseason: None

This was one of my better predictions, although the Gamecocks didn’t fare quite as well as I expected in the Old Spice Classic.

Tennessee

Predicted Record: 26-5, 13-3
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (1 seed)

Actual Record: 28-3, 14-2
Actual Postseason: NCAA (2 seed)

Although the Vols actually performed better than I expected overall, the team still [unjustly] did not receive a top seed in the tournament. With that said, my call was pretty close to correct on this one.

Vanderbilt

Predicted Record: 19-12, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (1 or 2 seed)

Actual Record: 25-6, 10-6
Actual Postseason: NCAA (4 seed)

The Commodores also swept through their non-conference competition, for them on the back of Shan Foster. Foster – eventual SEC Player of the Year – was an incredible 3-point shooter and thrusted the ‘Dores to a high NCAA seed.

Overall

I ended up missing the total number of games won by an average of 0.75 games per team, although that number softens the misses on both sides of the spectrum. Not terrible, but I can certainly do better.

On to 2008/09!

Round Two games…

Overall: 142-41 (77.6%)
Vs. Spread: 65-66 (49.6%)
Overall (SEC): 49-23 (68.1%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 32-39 (45.1%)
East vs. West: East, 25-11

In what was easily the most bizarre and memorable SEC Tournament quarterfinal round, an confirmed F2 tornado struck the Georgia Dome as Mississippi State held a small lead on Alabama in a hotly-contested overtime match. With about 2:30 on the clock, an enormous rumbling sound was heard as massive beams and catwalks began swaying violently. Soon, rips opened in the roof and holes were punched in the walls as the teams and their coaches were escorted off the court while crowds rushed away from the outside walls and towards the bottom of the building. When all was said and done, tons of debris had filtered onto the floor, and it took 64 minutes to get play back underway.

As a result of the structural damage to the building and the threat of further severe weather, the following Kentucky/Georgia matchup was postponed until Saturday. Because of the delay, Georgia and Kentucky will play at 11AM CT and the winner of that game will be forced to turn around and play Mississippi State at 6:30PM. As neither team is particularly deep, this certainly heavily favors MSU.

In addition, the location has been moved to the campus of Georgia Tech, which holds a maximum of approximately 40% of the Georgia Dome. As a result, no fans are being allowed inside, just players, coaches, cheerleaders, and bands. This is a disadvantage particularly to Kentucky, as I’ve heard as many as 20,000+ had made the trip for the SEC Tournament.

With all of that said, here are recaps of yesterday’s games.

(29-3, 15-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (14-18, 6-12) South Carolina [87]: Chris Lofton, who had shot just 1-of-9 from three-point, finished 2-of-10. That second made trey was the difference in the game, as he hit the shot with barely seconds left on the clock. This was a beautiful game offensively, as both teams executed magnificently to put points on the board. With that said, defense was equally as lacking in the game. Wayne Chism proved to be the difference-maker in the game for the Vols, scoring on 9-of-13 shots for 23 points and grabbing 7 boards, and even making 2-of-3 three-pointers. JuJuan Smith added 19 points and 5 rebounds, while Lofton finished with just 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting, despite hitting the game-winner. Downey and Fredrick carried the Gamecocks offensively, combining for 50 points while both took an unprecedented 20 shots from the floor. Downey hit 10 while Fredrick hit 8, while the ever-present Downey also put in 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals. Holmes played very well yet again, scoring 15 points and 11 rebounds for his 4th double-double in the past 7 games.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols continue their march forward, needing a win over Arkansas to secure a top-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: This loss, although it was a hard-fought one against a national-title contender, ends the year for the Gamecocks and Dave Odom’s coaching career.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 27 assists to USC’s 13

(21-10, 10-7) Arkansas [81] vs. (26-7, 11-7) #18 Vanderbilt [75]: The Razorbacks simply came out more focused and played with more effort in this game, and outrebounded the Commodores by what was one of the biggest rebounding margins in the SEC this year. As a result, the ‘Backs were afforded 18 more attempts from the floor. Arkansas didn’t shoot well, but three-pointers – Vanderbilt’s keystone – wouldn’t fall for the ‘Dores and Arkansas won a relatively easy decision in comparison to the other SEC games. Gary Ervin tied a team-high with 18 points on a nice 5-of-7 shooting performance and 7-of-7 from the charity stripe. Darian Townes also contributed 18 points, his on 8-of-13 shooting, and claimed 7 rebounds. Patrick Beverly continued to struggle with his shot, hitting just 3-of-11 shots while Weems struggled even more, hitting just 1-of-9. Alex Gordon was the unusual scoring leader for Vanderbilt, leading all scorers in the game with 22 points on 5-of-10 shooting from behind the arc. Ogilvy played decently with 14 points and 7 rebounds, but the ever-reliable Foster shot just 4-of-10 and 2-of-7 from three.
Impact [Arkansas]: If there was any doubt that the Razorbacks were in the NCAA Tournament, with a #31 RPI and a win over the RPI’s #11 team, this game solidified those doubts. Not just that, but the ‘Backs might have moved into a 7 or 8 seed with a win over a ranked team, although the team is 5-5 over their last 10.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Vanderbilt’s NCAA fate was long since sealed up, but the ‘Dores did themselves no favors seeding-wise by dropping a game to a lower future NCAA seed. A 3 seed seemed possible, but not a 4 or 5 seems likely.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ tremendous 43-20 rebounding advantage

(22-9, 13-4) Mississippi State [69] vs. (17-16, 6-12) Alabama [67]: Mississippi State has become familiar with dramatic endings as of late, and this was no exception. Amidst a direct hit by a now-confirmed F2 tornado, the Bulldogs managed a heart-stopping 2-point win in overtime as a last-second Riley three bounced out of the rim. MSU jumped out to an early lead and looked to dominate the game, but Alabama soon shifted to a zone defense and took complete control. State’s rebounding and defense eventually won out, though this was an intensely exciting game. All-SEC First Teamer Jamont Gordon has scored 20+ points in three-straight games now with his 23 points in this one, hitting 7-of-18 shots, grabbing 9 boards, and handing out 4 assists but turning the ball over 5 times. Varnado, who leads the nation in blocked shots, swatted just 3 shots but pulled down his sixth double-double of the season with 10 points and 11 rebounds, while fellow All-SEC First Team selection Charles Rhodes scored 15 points and recorded 8 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times. Mykal Riley led the Tide in scoring with 18 points, but shot just 5-of-16 from the floor and 4-of-12 from three. Hendrix put his 17th double-double of the season on the stat sheet, with 15 points and a game-high 13 rebounds. Gee shot just 3-of-10 but managed 10 points.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are proving they can find ways to win. While seeding looks to be a 5 or 6 at the moment, a tournament final appearance or title win could bump that to a 4.
Impact [Alabama]: While the Tide only have 17 wins and are barely above .500 on the year, two wins over quality wins and a close loss to MSU make the team a distant threat for an at-large bid for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 31.8% shooting

SEC Tournament first-round games…

Overall: 142-41 (77.6%)
Vs. Spread: 65-66 (49.6%)
Overall (SEC): 49-23 (68.1%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 32-39 (45.1%)
East vs. West: East, 25-11

Took a beating yesterday…the percentages are falling pretty badly. With several SEC teams ending their season yesterday, on to the recaps…

(13-18, 6-11) LSU [73] vs. (14-17, 6-11) South Carolina [77]: The Gamecocks caught a bad case of streakiness, but still managed to hold off a late Tiger surge to end LSU’s season. Depth was amazingly vacant for both squads, but balanced scoring for USC’s scorers and unbelievable ball-handling by everyone – but Downey in particular – proved the difference in the game. Downey finished with a career-high-tying 11 assists and 12 points for his second double-double of the season, but didn’t shoot well (4-of-13 for 30.8%). Holmes has continued his late-season surge by tying for a team-high 16 points but didn’t rebound particularly well, with just 4. LSU’s pure talent was obvious, and if the team gathered some depth this would be a very dangerous team. Randolph shot 9-of-15 from the field for 22 points and grabbed 8 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times. Also turning the ball over 6 times was Chris Johnson, who finished with his 5th double-double of the season and his 4th in the last 6 games, with 13 points and 14 rebounds. Marcus Thornton didn’t shoot particularly well from three, hitting just 3-of-10 of his shots from that range, but finished with 17 points and 6 rebounds. Also of note, the SEC’s second-best blocking team swatted just one shot, and the Tigers turned the ball over 19 times.
Impact [LSU]: This obviously ends the Tigers’ season, but LSU has a lot of talent to work with next season.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks will have to win the conference tournament to make the postseason, regardless of the win.
Stat of the Game: USC’s +11 turnover margin

(26-6, 11-6) #18 Vanderbilt [93] vs. (14-16, 4-13) Auburn [82]: These two teams’ lack of defense was magnified by their playing of each other, as the Tigers shot 47.5% from the floor, scored 82 points, and still lost by 11. Vandy’s star players came out huge for this game, as Ogilvy and Foster combined for 53 points. Ogilvy missed just one shot out of 13 and claimed 5 rebounds, while Foster nailed 6-of-9 shots from behind the arc and grabbed 4 rebounds. Although Beal only managed 7 points, he also dished out 7 assists and didn’t turn the ball over. Auburn’s Dewayne Reed had a similar game, scoring just 8 points but handing out 9 assists and not turning the ball over. Barrett led the Tigers in scoring with 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting and Tolbert managed 17 points but shot just 4-of-13 from the field.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores didn’t necessarily increase their seeding with a win over a very weak Auburn team, the matchup against Arkansas could make more of a statement.
Impact [Auburn]: The loss means the end of Auburn’s season, as next season looks to be similar to this one.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 27 assists

(21-11, 8-9) Florida [69] vs. (17-15, 6-11) Alabama [80]: This was a significant upset, as Alabama’s defense was surprisingly stout and the Gators continued showing no intensity on the defensive end of the floor. Mykal Riley, the SEC’s second-best three-point shooter, hit an overwhelming 8-of-12 three-point shots to carry ‘Bama through the game with 26 points, while Hendrix shot 7-of-13 for 22 points and 8 rebounds. Florida could find no offense, as their leading scorer was Speights with just 15 points, and just one other Gators scored more than 10 points.
Impact [Florida]: Florida, with an RPI of 72 and a loss to a team that’s barely above .500 on the year, has effectively sealed itself off from NCAA Tournament consideration. Look for the Gators to surface as a top seed in the NIT.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are now just one win away from being considered for the NIT, but that road will go through Mississippi State, who swept them this season.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 41 rebounds to Florida’s 28

(21-10, 7-10) Ole Miss [95] vs. (14-16, 5-12) Georgia [97]: This was possibly a bigger upset than the Alabama/Florida game, as the Rebels were the three-seed in the West and Georgia was the worst SEC team record-wise. This one went to overtime and was as close as I figured it would be, but went to the Bulldogs as the team shot slightly better than the Rebs but took 11 less shots from the floor. Woodbury was the surprise scoring leader for UGA, hitting 9-of-12 shots for 25 points and 7 rebounds, while Gaines also pitched in 22 points and 5 rebounds, but shot just 5-of-14. Warren’s off-game could’ve cost his team the game, as he shot just 2-of-10 from the floor and just 1-of-6 from three to manage 8 points. Huertas tried to make up for it, shooting 7-of-11 from long-range to put up a season-high 29 points and 5 rebounds, while Curtis remained ever-reliable on the inside, scoring 26 points on 11-of-16 shooting and claiming 7 rebounds. Polynice also had a good game, handing out 9 assists to just 1 turnover.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels join the Gators in teams that likely played their way out of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, as now a top-seed in the NIT will be likely.
Impact [Georgia]: Even with the big win, the Bulldogs will still need to win the SEC Tournament to make the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 8 blocks

SEC Tournament First-Round odds…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

(13-17, 6-10) LSU [W4, #159] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [E5, #140]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU – The Tigers’ lanky inside men will be able to keep Downey shy from charging the lane, and LSU simply has more momentum at the moment.
—Keys: If fouls are called closely, the game may favor USC’s lane-driving. If not, LSU’s shot-blockers will have a field day unless the Gamecocks get hot from behind the arc.

(25-6, 10-6) #18 Vanderbilt [E3, #10] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [W6, #154]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 8.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – This is the easiest pick in some time, as the Tigers are seriously overmatched against the ‘Dores.
—Keys: The only thing that could keep this game close is Vandy’s tendency to play poorly on the road while Auburn has a good amount of experience on their squad.

(21-10, 8-8) Florida [E4, #65] vs. (16-15, 5-11) Alabama [W5, #118]
Spread: Florida by 3
Pick: Florida – Alabama’s utter lack of defense will cost them this game, as the Gators are one of the most offensively-efficient teams in the conference.
—Keys: Hendrix should gain the advantage inside against Speights, but the Florida guards are much better shooters and should have a field day in this game.

(21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [W3, #44] vs. (13-16, 4-12) Georgia [E6, #152]
Spread: Ole Miss by 4.5
Pick: Ole Miss – Although this should be an entertainingly close game, the Rebels’ offensive execution should win out.
—Keys: Ole Miss’ youth could prove fatal in a high-pressure situation against a pretty solid defense in Georgia. The production of the Rebels’ freshmen will be vital to their victory.

SEC Tournament Break-Down

Now that the seeds are set and the Southeastern Conference’s 49th all-time league tournament is set to begin this Thursday, March 13th, here is a breakdown of each matchup, predictions for their outcomes, and the times they will be playing. The number following the “#” is that squad’s seeding in their division, and the numeral in brackets is the team’s RPI, per www.kenpom.com.

All SEC Tournament games except for the Final Round will be televised by Raycom Sports, and the Final Round will be televised nationally by CBS.

1st Round

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #5: 13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [#139] vs. (West #4: 13-17, 6-10) LSU [#159]

Offense: Advantage - South Carolina: The Gamecocks don’t shoot particularly well overall, but put up a ton of shots by forcing turnovers. USC is also lethal from three, where they rank third in the conference at 36.7% as a team. The Tigers rank near the bottom of the conference in points per game and field-goal percentage.

Defense: Advantage – LSU: The Tigers’ defense has been above average all year, built around the blocking prowess of both Johnson and Randolph. LSU ranks second in the conference in blocks per game and fourth in field-goal percentage defense, but tend to allow a lot of opponent attempts by turning the ball over and missing offensive rebounding opportunities.

Playmakers: Advantage – LSU: Both teams are short on depth, but the Tigers seem to be more talented overall with All-SEC Freshman candidate Anthony Randolph inside who ranks 3rd in the conference in both rebounding and blocks. Marcus Thornton recently put up 38 points on Mississippi State and has proven to be a lethal all-around scorer, ranking 2nd in the conference in scoring with 19.7 points per game and in the top 15 with a 43.6% field goal percentage. Chris Johnson has proven to be formidable inside as well, ranking 2nd in blocking. The main playmaker for USC is without a doubt Rivals.com First-Team All-SEC Devan Downey, who’s quickness and talented ball-handling is hard to keep from driving the basket. Downey ranks 2nd in the conference in scoring, but doesn’t take the best-advaised shots as he doesn’t rank in the top 15 field-goal percentages. Downey also takes care of the ball well, handing out 5.2 assists to just 2.8 turnovers, ranking 4th in that category.

Depth: Advantage – South Carolina: Although neither team is particularly strong in this area, USC regularly rotates 8 men and has 2 more backups while the Tigers rotate 8 men but have just 1 more usable backup.

Intangibles: Advantage – LSU: Both teams have some things going for them. While Dave Odom will be coaching in his final SEC Tournament that has seen Odom receive his fair share of success, the Tigers have lifted the Brady “weight” off of their shoulders and have been playing inspired basketball, winning 4 of their last 5. Butch Pierre has done a great job at reorganizing the Tigers’ rotation off the bench and creating more offense.

Bottom Line: This will be a game dominated by two or three players with a load of role-players mixed in. The outcome will likely be dictated by USC’s Holmes and LSU’s Randolph inside and USC’s Downey and LSU’s Thornton from the outside. Whichever team can keep the other’s main scorer out of the paint will win the game, although the Tigers will need to keep a handle on their turnovers also.

Prediction: LSU wins, 70-64: The Tigers’ Randolph will prove to be the difference-maker, scoring almost at will inside the paint while Downey will still manage to put up more than 20 points. A close game favors LSU, who leads the conference in free-throw shooting percentage.

3:15 PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #6: 14-15, 4-12) Auburn [#154] vs. (East #3: 25-6, 10-6) Vanderbilt [#10]

Offense: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores are one of the most potent offenses in the conference, averaging 80.4 points per game and leading the conference in three-point percentage at 40.2%. The Tigers rank near the bottom in almost every offensive category.

Defense: Advantage – Vanderbilt: Neither team is known for their defense, but the Tigers have been horrid. Auburn’s field-goal percentage defense is nearly 3% worse than any other SEC team’s, although Vanderbilt’s scoring defense is slightly worse.

Playmakers: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores have the likely SEC Player of the Year in Shan Foster and SEC Freshman of the Year candidate AJ Ogilvy. Foster leads the conference in scoring with 20.6 points per game and 9th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Ogilvy has proven to be a threat offensively as well, leading SEC freshman with 16.7 points per game and 3rd among SEC freshman with 6.8 rebounds per game. Auburn’s Quantez Robertson is one of the most underrated point guards, handing out 4.2 assists to just 1.8 turnovers per game, ranking 2nd in the conference in that category.

Depth: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores have recruited well, and it shows. The ‘Dores regularly rotate 10 men into play, with 1 more off the bench while Auburn rotates 8 with 1 off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores are currently ranked 17th in the nation and are a popular pick for the Sweet 16. Morale is low in Auburn, as the Tigers haven’t seen the postseason in quite some time.

Bottom Line: This game will be full of offense, as neither team plays much defense. An offensive game easily favors Vanderbilt, as the Commodores have been scoring nearly at will all season long. With Auburn’s severe lack of talent and depth, this game could get ugly.

Prediction: Vanderbilt wins, 94-75: At least 9 or 10 players will get on the scoreboard for Vanderbilt, as this game becomes a route early on. Because of a lesser need for him, Foster doesn’t have a remarkable game, scoring around 15 points.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #5: 16-15, 5-11) Alabama [#117] vs. (East #4: 21-10, 8-8) Florida [#65]

Offense: Advantage – Florida: The Gators are loaded with offensively-talented freshman, ranking 4th in the conference in scoring average and lead the conference in field-goal percentage. The Tide rank near the middle of the conference in all offensive categories.

Defense: Advantage – Alabama: These two teams are possibly the worst defensive teams in the conference, but the Tide have a slight edge in percentages and a sizeable lead in blocks/steals per game. Richard Hendrix probably gives this advantage to Alabama on his own.

Playmakers: Advantage – Alabama: Richard Hendrix, as you all know by now, is possibly my favorite SEC player. He’s practically unstoppable under the rim, even against arguably the nation’s best defender in MSU’s Jarvis Varnado. Hendrix ranks 4th in the conference in scoring, 1st in rebounding (the only SEC player to average a double-double), 3rd in field-goal percentage, and 5th in blocking. Hendrix is a beast, and possibly the best all-around player in the conference. ‘Bama’s Riley is also underestimated, ranking 2nd in the conference in three-point shooting, while Gee is an unpredictable but dynamic play-maker. Florida has their share of talent as well, as freshman Nick Calathes easily leads the conference in assists per game with 6.1, and ranks 3rd in assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s a scoring point, though, leading his team in scoring with 15.9 points per game. Speights can also dominate a game inside, ranking 4th in rebounding and 2nd in field-goal percentage.

Depth: Advantage – Alabama: While both teams are relatively deep, Florida relies more on its talented youth while the Tide have some more experienced players and cycle more men into the game. 9 Bama players regularly see playing time with 2 usable backups, while 9 Gators see common playing time but none are usable off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage – Florida: The Gators will be playing for their NCAA lives and are coached by possibly the SEC’s best coach, while the Tide are struggling to even reach the NIT and have fell short of already-low expectations.

Bottom Line: This is yet another game that will see very little defense and be controlled by offense. Alabama simply won’t have the offense to keep up with the potent Gators, although Hendrix will likely have a huge game against Speights inside. The game will be close, but Alabam’s free throw shooting will cost them the game.

Prediction: Florida wins, 80-72: The game will come down to the final minute, as Alabama will miss key free throws to hand Florida the game.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(East #6: 13-16, 4-12) Georgia [#152] vs. (West #3: 21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [#42]

Offense: Advantage – Ole Miss: The Bulldogs’ offense is the most anemic in the conference, scoring just 67.8 points per game. Conversely, the Rebels have proven to execute an efficient offense, ranking third in the conference in scoring, although the Rebs rank 9th in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Georgia – Both teams play decent defense, but the Bulldogs’ scoring defense gives them the edge, as they rank 4th in the conference with 67.2 points per outing. All of the remaining statistics are very similar.

Playmakers: Advantage – Ole Miss: Neither team is overloaded with talent, but the Rebels have a clear advantage with SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Chris Warren and vastly overlooked big-man Dwayne Curtis on the interior. Warren has tremendous speed but still has work to do on his decision-making skills, leading the team in scoring but shooting just 39.6% from the field and turning the ball over nearly 3 times a game. Curtis ranks 2nd in the conference with an impressive 9.3 rebounds per game and leads the SEC in field-goal percentage, shooting 64.6% on the season. For Georgia, Sundiata Gaines is the key to the team’s offense, putting up over 12 attempts per game, grabbing 6.3 rebounds per game, and ranking 6th in the conference with 4.2 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game. Gaines’ main drawback is free-throw shooting, as he hits just 57.3% of his shots from the charity stripe.

Depth: Advantage – Ole Miss: Both teams have some talent on the bench, but the Rebels have more, as both cycle in 10 men regularly with 1 legitimate backup.

Intangibles: Advantage – Ole Miss: The Rebels absolutely must win this game to reach the NCAA, and they know it. Felton has struggled with off-the-court issues, and the Rebels simply have more to play for.

Bottom Line: When it comes to crunch time, Georgia won’t have the offense to keep up with the Rebels. Curtis should have a monster game, scoring 15-20+ points and 10+ rebounds, as Bliss is not necessarily a threat defensively.

Prediction: Ole Miss wins, 76-67: This game shouldn’t be as close as the score looks, as the Rebels should take control in the second half as the Bulldogs lose any offensive momentum they may have created in the first.

2nd Round

Since the second round depends on who wins in the first, here is a breakdown of each squad who received a bye, both strengths and weaknesses.

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #1: 28-3, 14-2) Tennessee [#1] vs. (Winner of [E5] South Carolina vs. [W4] LSU)

Offense: The Vols have boasted a tremendously potent offense from the very beginning of the season, averaging a league-leading 82.5 points per game. Surprisingly, the Vols rank just 8th in field-goal perentage and 5th from behind the arc, but utilize great offensive rebounding (2nd) and turnover-forcing (1st) to attempt 236 more shots from the floor than their opponents. The squad also shares the ball remarkably well, averaging over 18 assists per game to lead the SEC in that category as well.

Defense: Although the common conception is that a great speed-based offense like Tennessee lacks on defense, this is very untrue for the Vols. The team’s scoring defense ranks a decent 6th, but the key is three-point defense as the team leads the conference quite comfortably in that category, with a 30.5% mark. Forced turnovers are the key to Tennessee’s high-intensity, high-pressure defense, which leads into easy buckets.

Playmakers: The Volunteers are very talented and well-balanced, as despite leading the league in scoring as a team no player averages more than 16 points per game. Chris Lofton, a preseason All-American selection, is that 16ppg scorer, although he manages those points on 11.9 attempts per game as opposed to percentages, as his shooting percentage from the floor doesn’t rank in the top 15 in the conference. Lofton does, however, lead the SEC in free-throw percentage shooting, hitting 84.2% of his attempts. Tyler Smith has claimed his mark as one of the best big-men in the conference, leading his team in rebounding and ranking 8th in the conference in shooting percentage. JuJuan Smith is extremely dynamic but sometimes out of control, though he shoots a respectable 45.2% from the floor. JuJuan also ranks 5th in the SEC in steals per game.

Depth: Tennessee is one of the deepest teams in the conference, with 11 players seeing consistent playing time and 1 other seeing some amount of time off the bench.

Intangibles: Everything is going right for one fo the nation’s top teams, with two or three potential All-SEC First Teamers and SEC Coach of the Year candidate. A Final Four seems a distcint possibility, as does bringing home the Southeastern Conference’s third-straight men’s basketball national title.

Prediction: The Vols have a great chance at winning the conference tournament and going on to an NCAA Tournament 1-seed.

3:15PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #2: 20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [#43] vs. (Winner of [W6] Auburn vs. [E3] Vanderbilt)

Offense: Arkansas is a defense-oriented team who likes to slow the ball down. The team’s scoring margin is mediocre at best, although the percentages are good as most of the team’s scoring comes from inside the paint. The team doesn’t share the ball exceptionally well, and does not shoot well from three as a whole.

Defense: The Razorbacks have been battling MSU for the top spot defensively all season, as the team is loaded with quality big-men. Arkansas ranks 3rd in scoring defense, field-goal percentage defense, and three-point defense as well as blocks per game.

Playmakers: Sonny Weems is the team’s shooting specialist, leading the squad in scoring with 14.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Reigning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly is the conference’s 3rd-most efficient three-point shooter at 40.1%, and Steven Hill ranks 4th in blocks per game. This team doesn’t have many stand-outs, as the effort is usually well-balanced.

Depth: Arkansas is also very deep, as 10 players see regular playing time but no others come off the bench.

Intangibles: The ‘Backs are another team looking to ensure their NCAA hopes, and a win against a very talented Vanderbilt team would do it. Arkansas has lost 5 of their last 8, however, and this will be Pelphrey’s first SEC Tournament. How will the seniors respond in their last SEC Tournament?

Prediction: The Razorbacks should be able to defeat the Commodores, as Vanderbilt hasn’t been able to hit their threes away from home. The ‘Backs would likely fall hard to the Volunteers, however.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #1: 21-9, 12-4) Mississippi State [#38] vs. (Winner of [W5] Alabama vs. [E4] Florida)

Offense: While MSU is widely known to be a very talented team defensively, the squad’s offensive presence has been lost in the shuffle. Although State’s scoring offense ranks just 6th, the team’s field-goal percentage ranks 3rd. The Bulldogs are not adept at three-point shooting, however, nor sharing the ball – ranking 9th and 8th in those categories, respectively. In SEC play, MSU leads the conference in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Well-known at this point, Mississippi State’s field-goal percentage defense ranks atop the SEC and 2nd in the country behind Georgetown, at 36.9%. Absolutely suffocating on defense, the team also ranks 2nd in three-point defense, 1st in scoring defense, and 1st in blocks per game (and also 2nd in the NCAA in that category, behind Connecticut). State’s length and athleticism makes every point scored against them difficult.

Playmakers: The Bulldogs have arguably the most talented starting 5 in the conference, with SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon leading the way. Charles Rhodes is a legitimate All-SEC First-Teamer, Jarvis Varnado leads the nation in blocks per game and is set to challenge Shaq’s all-time SEC blocks record as a sophomore, and both Stewart and Hansbrough are able to put up 20+ points on any given night. Gordon ranks 5th in the conference in scoring while Rhodes ranks 7th, while Varnado ranks 5th in rebounds and Rhodes ranks 6th. Rhodes is a very efficient shooter, even with face to the basket, ranking 6th in the conference in shooting percentage, while Gordon ranks 3rd in assists per game. Hansbrough also ranks in the top 10 in three-point percentage and 3-pointers made per game. This team is very well-balanced, with an offensive big-man, defensive big-man, penetrating guard, and two shooters.

Depth: The Bulldogs have lots of depth on the bench, with a regular rotation cycle of 10 players and 1 off the bench.

Intangibles: State has been on the brink of being ranked throughout the season, and have won 7 of their last 9. The ‘Dawgs seem to work well under the “underdog” mentality, and have the balance and depth to make a run in both postseason tournaments.

Prediction: State hasn’t lost a game to either of their potential second-round matchups, and have only dropped one game out of the total potential matchups in the semifinal round. State seems to be a good bet for the SEC Tournament finals, where a rematch with Tennessee should be an exciting game – although I’d pick the Vols to take that game, as UT won in Starkville in the teams’ previous matchup.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(West #2: 18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [#49] vs. (Winner of [E6] Georgia vs. [W3] Ole Miss)

Offense: Offense hasn’t been a specialty for the Wildcats, as the team ranks 10th in scoring offense for the season in the conference. The slow-paced offense shoots well, though, ranking 3rd in field-goal percentage and 2nd from behind the arc. The problem is rebounding, as the ‘Cats haven’t been able to take many shots from the floor and ranking last in turnover margin.

Defense: The Wildcat defense is a typical hard-nosed Kentucky defense, ranking 2nd in scoring defense allowed and field-goal percentage defense. What the team doesn’t do, however, is force turnovers very well, which when combined with poor ball-handling results in easy buckets for the opponent.

Playmakers: Three Wildcats score 16 points a game or more, although surprisingly only one of them has really captured the media’s attention. That player is SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson, who is no longer with the team after a fractured foot, and won’t be back until next season. Stevenson has handled the loss well, stepping up to record a couple of double-doubles in his absence. The other two top scorers are Crawford and Bradley, who are a couple of the more underestimated players in the league. Crawford ranks 6th in the conference in scoring and 10th in field-goal perecentage, while Bradley ranks 2nd in free-throw percentage.

Depth: Injuries have plagued the Wildcats, who now cycle just 8 men regularly and sub 3 others.

Intangibles: Survival is the key word here, as the Wildcats absolutely must win at least one game in the conference tournament to keep their NCAA hopes alive. The team’s resurgence has been impressive, and the squad seems to be handling the loss of Patterson quite well. Needless to say, the Wildcats have had an immense amount of success in their history in Atlanta.

Prediction: UK should be able to handle either Georgia or Ole Miss, although the Rebels could be a potential mismatch. Next up would likely be Mississippi State, who the Wildcats particularly do not match up well against.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

Next up will be a complete and utter breakdown of every team and their SEC Tournament matchups.

Saturday Games

(16-15, 5-11) Alabama [78] vs. (25-6, 10-6) #16 Vanderbilt [73]: This game will drop the Commodores a seed or two, as the ‘Dores have a less-than-stellar 6-6 record in road/neutral courts on the year and this being arguably the worst such loss. Vanderbilt simply couldn’t find any offense against a practically non-existent Alabama defense, shooting just 38.2% from the field. Riley came up huge for the Tide, scoring a game-high 26 points on 6-of-13 from long range and grabbing 10 boards for his second double-double of the season and Hendrix was actually outshined by Ogilvy and still put up his 16th double-double of the season with 12 points and 11 rebounds. Gee did was he does best – put up enough shots to score some points but not shoot particularly well, shooting 5-of-12 and 2-of-5 from long range for 16 points. Shan Foster came off of his 42-point blowup against Mississippi State by notching 21 in this loss, shooting 7-of-16. Ogilvy contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The postseason isn’t completely out of the question for the Tide now, if the squad could get hot and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament. That will have to go through Florida and Mississippi State, however.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a significant loss for Vanderbilt, who proved that down the stretch when it counts the most, the ‘Dores can’t win on the road – even against a lesser opponent. That will not be looked upon kindly by the selection committee, and Vandy needs to win at least a game in the SEC Tournament to counter that image. As for specifics, I’d say the Commodores fell from a 3 or 4 seed to a 5 or 6 seed with this loss.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 7-of-25 shooting from long range (28.0%)

(13-16, 4-12) Georgia [62] vs. (21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [76]: Another case of a weak defensive team suddenly holding their opponent to poor shooting, as the Rebels held Georgia to a 30.8% effort from the floor. This was a desperately-needed statement win for the Rebels, who are trying to claw their way into NCAA Tournament consideration. Now just two games under .500 in the conference, 21 wins overall, and another road win under their belt, the Rebels could very well be on the good side of the bubble. Five Rebels scored between 15 and 10 points, led by Warren and Curtis with 15. Parnell had an unusually successful game as well, notching 13 points and a team-high 7 rebounds. Woodbury led the Bulldogs with 18 points as Gaines did more harm than good by putting up 21 attempts and only hitting 5, although he did claim 7 rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little, as the postseason is out of the question for the Bulldogs without a conference tournament title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are suddenly back in the thick of the NCAA discussion after three-straight wins, including one over likely NCAA-bound Arkansas and a road win. A win in the conference tournament would likely make the Rebs a lock for the Big Dance.
Stat of the Game: Gaines’ 5-of-21 shooting (23.8%)

(21-9, 12-4) #25 Mississippi State [84] vs. (13-17, 6-10) LSU [75]: This game was closer than the Bulldogs would have liked, as the Tigers led by 1 at halftime. The ‘Dawgs did what they have been doing during the conference season, though, and found a way to win. This was also a stereotypical MSU game in terms of defense and blocking, as State did both well – swatting 10 shots as a team to capture the SEC’s single-season block record. In his last home game, senior Charles Rhodes scored a team-high 27 points and 10 rebounds as he’s been on a serious roll as of late, recording his ninth double-double of the season and second in a row. For the second game in a row, Gordon joined Rhodes in the 20+ points collumn with 23 points and 9 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, knocked away 7 shots. Marcus Thornton tried to go Shan Foster on State again, hitting three consecutive threes late in the game to pull within four, but then started missing. He finished with a tie for career-high 38 points on 6-of-12 shooting from three while Randolph notched 14 points and 10 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season.
Impact [Miss. State]: Avoiding the let-down loss was the main concern for State at this point, as a game or two in the SEC Tournament could result in a 5-seed or better.
Impact [LSU]: With the loss, the West’s four-seed is where the Tigers will fall, which is substantially better than they seemed to have been heading for just a couple of weeks ago. No postseason is possible without winning the SEC Tournament title.
Stat of the Game: The league’s three top shot-blockers in action: Varnado (7), Johnson (1), and Randolph (1)

(20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [77] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [64]: This game appeared to be headed towards the blowout I expected at halftime, where the Razorbacks held a 45-26 lead. But some backups got minutes and the lead shrunk a bit, but this was a complete mismatch from the beginning. Arkansas destroyed the Tigers on the boards, shot remarkably well from all spots on the floor, and the ‘Backs big-men had their way inside. Beverly shot to his potential for the third-straight game, hitting 9-of-11 from the floor and 6-of-6 from behind the arc for 27 points along with grabbing 8 rebounds, while Darian Townes hit 6-of-7 shots to score 12 points and claimed a season-high 14 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Frank Tolbert was Auburn’s main offensive weapon, as he sank 7-of-12 shots, grabbed 4 rebounds, and handed out 5 assists but turned the ball over 5 times for 17 points.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks might have secured an at-large NCAA bid with this win, guaranteeing themselves a + .500 SEC record. The squad’s performance in the SEC Tournament will determine the seed, which could be as low as a 10 or 9, or as high as a 7 or 8.
Impact [Auburn]: Time to get the hands hot, because winning the conference tournament is the Tigers’ only shot at the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ big-men hitting 14-of-22 (63.6%) shots total

Sunday Games

(18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [75] vs. (21-10, 8-8) Florida [70]: In this crucial battle-of-the-bubble game, the Wildcats held onto their lead despite a late charge by the Gators. Surprisingly, Florida heavily outrebounded Kentucky, but succombed to their defensive prowess and showed none of their own as the ‘Cats shot very well from the floor. Kentucky’s lack of depth was apparent, as only six Wildcats scored, as Stevenson led the Blue in scoring…stepping up nicely in the abscense of Patterson. Stevenson put up 18 points on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting effort and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the campaign, needless to mention blocking 5 shots. Crawford had an off-day shooting-wise, hitting just 7-of-17 shots and 2-of-7 from three, and Bradley handed out 7 assists but turned the ball over 4 times. Speights is becoming a star for Florida, with another 20-point outing on 8-of-11 shooting and 8 rebounds, and Calathes continues to be reliable with 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting and 6 assists to just 2 turnovers. The Gators aren’t terribly deep, but are very, very talented.
Impact [Kentucky]: This is a remarkable situation, really. As of now, there simply can’t be an informed observer of the sport that would say Kentucky isn’t an NCAA-quality team. But with a questionable RPI and two terrible losses (three if you count the 40+ embarassment to Vanderbilt), will 12 SEC wins but just 18 overall wins be enough? My guess is yes, but a win against either Ole Miss or Georgia would solidify their stake.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are about on the same spot on the bubble as Kentucky is at this point. The RPI is certainly not favorable and the strength of schedule is miserable, but Florida managed to go .500 in a power conference and win 21 games. I’d say the Gators are in a slightly worse position than the Wildcats, as at least one win the SEC Tournament will be necessary for NCAA inclusion.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 28-of-48 shooting (58.3%)

(28-3, 14-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [56]: The story of this blowout is how close the game was at halftime. At the midpoint, the Vols were nursing a 38-37 lead. From that point on, Tennessee outscored the Gamecocks 51-19 the rest of the way, and finishing up outrebounding their opponents by 18. Lofton has gotten in touch with his talent recently, scoring 28 points in this win on 10-of-16 shooting and 6-of-10 from long range to go along with 4 steals. JuJuan Smith was the only other Vol scoring in double digits in this well-balanced Volunteer assault with 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting and 9 rebounds. Holmes has truly stepped up for South Carolina in the past six games, as he’s scored in double digits in five of those and posted double-doubles in three of them. In this contest, Holmes recorded 15 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey had a tough day shooting 1-of-9 put also dishing out 9 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols remain an obvious pick for a #1 seed, and should remain that way as long as they reach the finals of the SEC Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: The postseason is an impossibilty unless the Gamecocks manage to win the SEC Tournament – which I wouldn’t completely rule out, as Odom has a history of success in it.

Saturday Odds…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

(15-15, 4-11) Alabama [#134] vs. (25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#7]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – Although the Commodores haven’t been especially efficient on the road, Alabama doesn’t have the depth to win this game.
—Keys: How will Foster react to his monster game against MSU? Can Ogilvy even come close to containing Hendrix? Hendrix needs touches for UA, and Vanderbilt needs to stay accurate from three.

(13-15, 4-11) Georgia [#145] vs. (20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [#42]
Spread: Even
Pick: Georgia – The Rebels have yet to win a conference road game, and this will be Gaines’ last home game.
—Keys: Look for Gaines to have a huge game. The Rebels need motivation for themselves, as this is a must-win for their NCAA hopes.

(20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [#37] vs. (13-16, 6-9) LSU [#160]
Spread: Miss. State by 10.5
Pick: Mississippi State – This is a bad matchup for LSU, as the Tigers have very little offense and even less depth. Rhodes should also come up big for the Bulldogs, as this will be his last regular-season home game.
Keys: Keep an eye on Rhodes, and even Gordon if he knows he’s leaving to the NBA. A loss today would drop State significantly in the NCAA seeding process.

(19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [#40] vs. (14-14, 4-11) Auburn [#155]
Spread: Arkansas by 13.5
Pick: Arkansas – This should get ugly. Not only is this a very severe mismatch for the Tigers, but an enormous amount of Razorbacks will be playing in their last regular-season home game and for a NCAA bid.
Keys: Auburn will have to shoot lights-out to even stay in this game. An absolute must-win for the Razorbacks to make the NCAA Tournament.

Wednesday games…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

With the last set of regular-season games coming up, posts will soon begin focus on postseason play.

(13-16, 5-10) South Carolina [63] vs. (17-11, 11-4) Kentucky [71]: Kentucky’s lack of depth again became apparent, and yet the team won another road game. Without Patterson, rebounding wasn’t a strength (the teams tied) for the Wildcats, but the squad’s shooting was phenomenal. Crawford brought down a season-high 35 points on 10-of-19 shooting, while Bradley scored 20 points on 6-of-11 shooting. The team’s two remaining big-men, Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson, took a combined 5 attempts from the floor – making it increasingly obvious Kentucky has abandoned any attempts at running some offense through the post. That will work as long as you’re playing against a guard-oriented team like USC and your own guards are shooting over 50%, but I suspect the team will fold against a bigger, more substantial team. Downey took much less responsibility than usual, shooting only 9 times, while Fredrick led the Gamecocks with 19 points. Holmes, who has really stepped up in SEC play, recorded his third double-double with 16 points and a game-high 10 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks won’t be seeing the postseason without a miracle run in the SEC Tournament.
Impact [Kentucky]: With their 11th SEC win but just 17 wins overall, the Wildcats still seem like a wild-card for the NCAA Tournament. Florida at home is an absolute must-win, and a game in the SEC Tournament would certainly help. Lose in the next two games, and the ‘Cats will be headed for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 56.4% shooting

(14-14, 4-11) Auburn [54] vs. (13-15, 4-11) Georgia [59]: While this would have been a big road win for Felton’s squad earlier in the year, it was a non-factor at this point in the season. As most teams do against the Tigers, Georgia rebounded well and turned the ball over too much. Auburn’s sudden lack of shooting prowess was the story of the game, as the team put up an entirely unneccessary 31 threes and only hit 9 of them. Sophomore Albert Jackson suddenly stepped up for the Bulldogs, scoring a season-high 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds. Gaines didn’t have a particularly impressive game, shooting just 2-of-8 for 11 points. Tolbert was again the Tigers’ lead scorer, but just with 12 points on 3-of-10 shooting. Prowell contributed 11 points and 7 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers should be looking towards next season at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: The Bulldogs are in the same boat as the Tigers.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 19.4% three-point shooting

(13-16, 6-9) LSU [80] vs. (15-15, 4-11) Alabama [74]: This game was very stereotypical for both teams, as Hendrix was a load inside for the Tide but wasn’t able to win the game by himself and LSU’s depth problems led to two 20+ scorers. Alabama dominated the rebounding collumn, while the Tigers shared the ball well and blocked an impressive 14 shots. Anthony Randolph led all scorers with a season-high 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting and a perfect 9-of-9 from the charity stripe. Marcus Thornton wasn’t far behind with 27 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three, while Chris Johnson neared a triple-double with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 blocks – his fourth double-double of the season and third in the past four games. The rest of the LSU team totalled 13 points. Hendrix notched his 15th double-double of the season with 16 points and 13 rebounds, while Jemison was a nice complement with 14 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: The Tigers have won four games in a row and suddenly placed themselves two games out of last place in the division and are competing for the three seed heading into the SEC Tournament. Unfortunately, it will be too little too late without a SEC Tournament title.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide continue to be tied with Auburn and Georgia for the title of the conference’s worst team.
Stat of the Game: Randolph/Thornton taking 64.7% of LSU’s shot attempts

(25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [86] vs. (20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [85]: This was one of the wildest games of the season. The Bulldogs seemed to control the entire game, leading almost all of it, but the immensely talented Shan Foster suddenly caught fire from three after missing six-straight to hit nine in a row, including one to send the game to overtime and another to win the game. The Commodores finish the season undefeated at home in a thriller, as Foster scored the second-most points in Vandy history: 42. Foster finished 16-of-25 from the field and 9-of-15 from three, needless to mention his five rebounds. His unbelievable display of leadership and shooting prowess against the nation’s second-ranked defense almost certainly has guaranteed him SEC Player of the Year, despite his rival Jamont Gordon scoring 24 points and 8 rebounds. Senior Charles Rhodes put up 22 points and 14 rebounds for his 8th double-double of the season for the Bulldogs, but none of this was enough to stop Foster from hitting contested threes to win the game. MSU had a couple of opportunities in both regulation and overtime to ice the game from the free throw line, but continuously hit one out of two to allow Foster to keep raining threes. My question would be…if he’s hit 6 in a row and you’re up by four in the final minute, wouldn’t you start fouling?
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a huge win for Vanderbilt, as a 3-seed remains possible. However, a 3-seed in the SEC Tournament may still be waiting unless Kentucky stumbles on Saturday.
Impact [Mississippi State]: The Bulldogs desperately needed the signiture win to improve their seeding. With the emotional overtime loss, the ‘Dawgs now face an LSU team on a 4-game win-streak at home with the SEC Tournament to follow. If there was a definition of a trap-game, this would be it.
Stat of the Game: What else? 42 points, 9-of-15 from three. State’s 53.6% free throw effort could be included, however.

(21-9, 8-7) Florida [86] vs. (27-3, 13-2) #4 Tennessee [89]: The Gators seemed to have solid control of this game even into the second half, leading by at least 13, but the Vols buckled down and went on a run to force a close win late. Most surprising was Tennessee’s lack of defense, allowing the Gators to shoot 59.6% on the game. Both teams posted two players with more than 20 points, as JuJuan Smith and Chris Lofton put up 23 and 21 points respectively for the Vols. The two shot a combined 8-of-15 from three and 15-of-24 from the field. Calathes led the Gators with 24 points but an even more impressive 9 assists, while Speights shot a perfect 8-of-8 for 21 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: Dropping a close home game that would have sealed an NCAA bid is a heart-breaker for the Gators, as a trip to Lexington is next. That game could very well be a must-win for Florida’s NCAA chances.
Impact [Tennessee]: With the tough road win, the Vols remain a solid pick for a #1 seed, depending on the outcome of the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: The two teams’ combined 55.5% shooting efforts

Tuesday game, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 136-34 (80.0%)
Vs. Spread: 62-56 (52.5%)
Overall (SEC): 43-16 (72.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 29-29 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Tuesday Game

(20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [81] vs. (19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [72]: This was a case of those not-as-close-as-they-look games, as the Rebels held a firm grasp on the game from very early on until the Razrbacks made a late charge. Arkansas’ road woes continued against the Rebels, as the ‘Backs’ defense was almost non-existent – Ole Miss shot 50.9% from the field. Despite Arkansas’ physical team makeup, the Rebels did what they have done very well all year: rebound, outrebounding their opponents 36-29. The Rebels were ultimately too quick and athletic for Arkansas to keep up with on the road. As per my keys, Curtis was indeed able to pull more than his own weight inside against Arkansas’ big men, scoring 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds for his unbelievable 15th double-double of the season. Curtis is easily one of the most overlooked inside men in the conference. Huertas also shot well, hitting 3-of-6 shots from long range and dishing out 5 assists. For Arkansas, Beverly finally found his shot just as Weems lost his. Beverly shot 7-of-13 and 3-of-8 from three for 19 points while Weems (who has scored at least 20 points in 7 of the last 13 games) managed just 5 points on 2-of-11 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This win certainly keeps the Rebels’ NCAA hopes alive, although the team will likely need to win at Georgia and at least a game in the SEC Tournament. The RPI (42nd) is respectable, but the their last 10 games (4-6) is less so.
Impact [Arkansas]: This dealt a huge blow to the Razorbacks, who suddenly fall from probably NCAA pick to the wrong side of the bubble. Luckily, Auburn at home is next, but Arkansas’ 5-9 Road/Nuetral record is certainly not favorable. One win the SEC Tournament could put them in, however.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss shooting 20.4% better from three

Wednesday Odds

(13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [#139] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [#55]
Spread: South Carolina by 1
Pick: South Carolina – Before the loss of Patterson, I would have picked Kentucky. However, the Wildcats now seemingly have noone to keep Downey from the lane.
—Keys: Obviously, can Kentucky establish inside presence with just Stevenson, and keep Downey our of the lane? Will South Carolina regain their composure from behind the 3-point arc. With the NCAA on the line, will the Wildcats choke?

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [#143] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [#156]
Spread: Auburn by 2
Pick: Auburn – The Tigers have the firepower to put up some points, and the Bulldogs don’t have the defense to stop them.
—Keys: Will Humphrey or someone else be able to complement Gaines for Georgia, and how will the Tigers try and stop Gaines?

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [#163] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [#122]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU – The Tigers have won three in a row over better competition, and Alabama has dropped 3 of their last 4.
—Keys: LSU’s defense is actually pretty solid, and the Alabama guards will need to be able to bring down whatever points they are able to. Look for the matchup of Johnson and Randolph’s defense against Hendrix’s offense.

(24-5, 9-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (20-8, 11-3) #25 Mississippi State [#38]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 3.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Commodores are undefeated at home, although this could be a mismatch for Vanderbilt. The game should be a competitive one, as the ‘Dores’ offense is paired up against the Dawgs’ defense.
—Keys: Will Varnado be able to silence Ogilvy inside? MSU will need to minimize turnovers if they want to have a chance, and Commodores will need to make shots against the nation’s second-ranked defense.

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [#60] vs. (26-3, 12-2) #4 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 1.5
Pick: Tennessee – The Vols seem unphased by road play, and the Gators are still struggling. With the Gators’ youth, look for them to give up a big number of turnovers against Tennessee’s press defense.
—Turnovers will be key – Florida will need to keep them in check. With Florida’s lack of defense of any type, Tennessee’s efficient offense could make this a blowout.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 135-34 (79.9%)
Vs. Spread: 61-56 (52.1%)
Overall (SEC): 42-16 (72.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 28-29 (49.1%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Saturday Games

(19-9, 8-6) Arkansas [78] vs. (24-5, 9-5) #18 Vanderbilt [73]: This was a very surprising game from a statistical point of view. To begin, the home team usually forces their own tempo, and this was clearly an uncomfortably up-tempo game for the Razorbacks. Secondly, Vanderbilt came into BWA as one of the conference’s best-shooting (if not the best) teams, and the ‘Backs outshot Vanderbilt by 15.0%. However, one would presume Arkansas’ big-man superiority would lead to a rebounding advantage, but it was the Commodores who won the rebounding advantage 29-24. Ultimately, Vanderbilt’s lack of defense proved the difference in the game. Weems continues to impress in SEC play, shooting 3-of-5 from three-point range for 20 points while Beverly suddenly caught fire and shot 5-of-7 from behind the arc and 6-of-10 overall to score 17. Ervin also had a nice game, handing out 7 assists and only turning the ball over once. Vanderbilt’s scoring was lop-sided, as Foster led the team with 22 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three and freshman Ogilvy upped his SEC Freshman of the Year candicacy by recording 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks. However, only one other Vandy player scored over 10 and only a few others managed to get on the board.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win over a ranked team provided a massive boost to the Razorbacks’ NCAA chances, but at least one more win will probably be needed to ensure inclusion.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It’s all about seeding at this point, although the Commodores will likely finish 3rd in the Eastern Division and miss the SEC Tournament’s first-round bye.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 58.3% shooting and 56.2% effort from three

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [63] vs. (13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [69]: The Gamecocks surprised the Tigers on the road by holding the solid-shooting squad to just 63 points. While both teams rely heavily on the three-pointer, neither shot well from that distance and South Carolina had the advantage getting inside with Downey. Downey led all scorers with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting (only two of those attempts from three-point range) while Holmes shot 8-of-10 for 18 points and 7 rebounds. Tolbert led the Tigers with 20 points while Prowell recorded his second double-double of the season with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers have long since been out of the postseason question, so this game had very little impact overall on the divisions’ bottom-dwellers.
Impact [South Carolina]: Odom has a history of getting hot in the SEC Tournament, and a road win could give Gamecock fans a small glint of hope for that to happen again.
Stat of the Game: Two of the SEC’s better three-point shooting teams combining for 8-of-39 (20.5%) shooting from three

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [59] vs. (20-8, 11-3) Mississippi State [68]: While this was a sub-ten-point game, the Bulldogs dominated the pace and outcome of this game from the very beginning. MSU remains the nation’s second-ranked defense, and it showed as the Gators usually-potent offense shot just 36.1% from the floor and 28.0% from three. MSU’s ball-handling was surprisingly good considering their unremarkable history of turning the ball over, and none of the Florida guards could find anything against State’s defense, missing several open layups. Hansbrough was the rarity for the Bulldogs to lead the team, scoring 20 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three while Rhodes put up 15 points and 8 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, swatted 7 shots and scored 11 points/rebounds apeice for his fifth double-double of the season. SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon suffered a terrible outing, shooting just 1-of-8 for 4 points asnd 5 rebounds. Speights was the bright spot for Florida, as he seemingly had his way inside, scoring 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds for the sixth double-double of his season. Calathes shot decently for 18 points, but uncharacteristically turned the ball over 3 times.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators desperately needed this win to bolster their NCAA resume, as #1 Tennessee comes to town next and then Florida will have to travel to Kentucky. One of those games must be a win, and another win in the SEC Tournament may be needed to get on the good side of the bubble.
Impact [Mississippi State]: MSU now clinches sole possession of the Western Division, and is a game back from the overall title with two games remaining. This was a tremendous seed-booster for the NCAA-bound Bulldogs, and if State can take care of Vanderbilt on the road and LSU at home, a 5 seed or better could be the outcome, depending on the squad’s performance in the conference tournament.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 7-of-25 shooting from three (28.0%)

(19-9, 5-9) Ole Miss [91] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [88]: This was a must-win for the Rebels, and the team barely pulled it out in the end to maintain their dim NCAA hopes. With both teams’ abscense of defense, the two teams shot very well from the field – the main reason the game came down to the wire. The Rebels’ main stars Warren and Curtis scored 25 and 24 points, respectively, while Warren also pitched in 8 assists and Curtis grabbed 9 rebounds. Huertas was also strong, scoring 18 points on 4-of-8 shooting from long range and claiming 9 boards. The Rebels did well keeping the ball out of the hands of Hendrix, as he was only allowed to attempt 8 shots for 10 points and 5 rebounds. Riley led the Tide with 20 points, but shot just 6-of-16 from the floor because of the squad’s lack of shooting depth. Jemison had his second big game in a row, scoring 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels will nearly lose NCAA contention with a loss to Arkansas at home on Tuesday. Both that game at the next at Georgia are must wins, if Kennedy hopes to avoid the NIT for the second-straight season.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are simply hoping to avoid the title of being the Western Division’s worst team, as the postseason seems out of the question

Sunday Games

(26-3, 12-2) #1 Tennessee [63] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [60]: The Wildcats actually led a decent amount of this game and Gillespie did an outstanding job at compensating for the loss of Patterson by slashing the ball to the basket with his guards Auburn-style. With that said, careless ball-handling and the Tennessee press handed the victory to the Vols, although the ‘Cats also outshot and outrebounded the top-ranked team. No surprise in the scoring for Tennessee, as only two players scored more than 10 points but eight players scored at least three. Tyler Smith led the charge with 15 on 6-of-14 shooting and five rebounds, and preseason All-American Chris Lofton scored 14 but turned the ball over 3 times. Bradley led the Wildcats with 17 points, but missed 2 out of 5 free throws (a lot for the SEC’s leading free-throw shooting). Perry Stevenson scored 13 points and claimed a career-high 14 rebounds for his second double-double of the season.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols are now only realistically battling with MSU for the SEC overall championship, and seem to be in a good spot – up by one game with only two remaining. If Tennessee can win their final two (at Florida, South Carolina at home) and reach the SEC Tournament final, a #1 seed should be a given.
Impact [Kentucky]: With the loss, Kentucky will likely need to win both of their remaining regular-season games (at South Carolina, Florida at home) and possibly even one more in the SEC Tournament to sufficiently impress the NCAA Selection Committee.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky (SEC’s best FT-shooting team) shooting 63.2% from the charity stripe

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [71] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [64]: This was not a pretty game, but it was exciting. Lots of big plays and energy for both squads, but also a lot of careless turnovers and poor decisions. Of note, Sundiata Gaines was thrown out of the game after receiving an inadvertent elbow in the lip from Georgia’s Bliss (I believe) on a floor-ball-scrambling and reacting with a clearly intended punch to the face. It was absolutely uncalled for, and I’m beginning to question Felton’s ability to bring in quality people to the program, despite his obviously good-natured personality. He’s constantly had problems on and off the court with his players, and it sure seems as if he simply doesn’t have what it takes to recruit good people. Back to the game – Marcus Thornton brought down a game-high 36 points (and even more surprisingly, it wasn’t a season high) on 12-of-21 shooting and a 5-of-7 effort from three along with 10 rebounds to notch his fourth double-double of the season and first since SEC play began. Randolph contributed 19 and Johnson tied a season-high 15 rebounds. Billy Humphrey rebounded from a stretch of 6 games in which he was held to under 10 points in five of them to score 26 points on 5-of-8 shooting from behind the arc for the Bulldogs.
Impact [LSU]: Very little. The postseason is out of the question, seeding in the SEC Tournament is about all that can improve at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little. The postseason is also out of the question for the Bulldogs.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 18 turnovers

Wednesday games…

Overall: 135-34 (79.9%)
Vs. Spread: 61-56 (52.1%)
Overall (SEC): 42-16 (72.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 28-29 (49.1%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Unfortunately, I didn’t have the time to recap all of the games before the next set. However, here is a small breakdown of each game.

Alabama defeated Arkansas at home by three, dealing the Razorbacks a major blow in their NCAA hopes. Vanderbilt at home will be a must-win for Arkansas now, as the team falls to 18-9 and 7-6 on the season. Jemison had a break-out game for Alabama, scoring a season-high 19 points.

Florida dominated the Georgia Bulldogs at home as I expected, with the Gators keeping their NCAA hopes alive. Calathes led Florida with 22 points.

After leading by as much as 24-4, the Rebels came back on Kentucky and made it a ballgame but ultimately fell 58-54 on the road in Lexington. As Ole Miss is now guaranteed a losing SEC record, they can ill-afford another SEC loss if they hope to reach the NCAA’s. The Wildcats are now desperately trying to win every game they can to reach the Big Dance, and also can barely afford to lose another conference contest.

Mississippi State had more trouble with the Auburn Tigers at home than they did on the road, but still won by 12 and thus solidified at least a share of the SEC’s Western Division title with the Arkansas loss. State has been hot ever since their 5-5 start, and now the Bulldogs seem to be the SEC’s third NCAA lock after Vandy and Tennessee.

The LSU Tigers continue their surprisingly improved play by pulling a big upset of South Carolina on the road by 62-55, as neither team will likely see the postseason.

Pre-SEC Tournament Breakdown

Here’s a recap of where each team stands a little over two weeks away from the SEC Tournament. This includes likely seeds in the conference tournament and postseason play, remaining games, etc.

Alabama (14-13, 3-9)

The Tide have played good teams close this season: 4-point loss at Arkansas, 10-point loss to #5 Georgetown, 7-point loss to #1 Tennessee, 7-point loss at Mississippi State. However, the lack of talented depth – particularly interior – has limited the numbers under the win collumn. The team’s defense is miserable, the worst in the SEC in fact, and the offense holds its own. Richard Hendrix is obviously the MVP here, as he is possibly the best overall player in the SEC and by far one of the most overlooked college players in the nation. Gee is a distant second, as he’ll need to work on his decision-making to be a serious threat in his senior season next year. Hendrix is certainly a threat to go pro – but without the press coverage of a good season, he should come back and set up Alabama with a potential to win the conference outright next season, as some talented recruits filter into the program, Steele becomes available for his senior season more healthy than he’s been in a while, and the squad loses nearly noone.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #5 seed
Round One: vs. Florida (W4)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Arkansas (18-8, 7-5)

The Razorbacks have played well, but look to fall just short of their predicted finish of first in the Western division, mainly due to missed opportunites for wins at Georgia (L, 69-82) and versus South Carolina (L, 66-70). The team excels in rebounding and defense, its game-plan very similar to Mississippi State. Ironically, both Weems and Beverly lead the team in scoring threats, although Beverly’s shooting has dropped off significantly from last year and his rebounding has drastically improved, despite the squad’s reliance on its big-men. None of the Arkansas players will likely make any NBA draft, although the team loses Ervin, Hill, Hunter, Thomas, Townes, and Weems next year as 2008-2009 looks to be a gigantic rebuilding year for the ‘Backs.

Remaining Schedule (Prediction)

@ Alabama (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Ole Miss (W)
vs. Auburn (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

21-9, 10-6

SEC Tournament

West #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. LSU (W6) or Vanderbilt (E3)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 8 seed

Auburn (14-11, 4-8)

The Tigers have lots of potential to score, but only from their shooters – not their offensive plays. The team excels at racing and cutting to the basket, but are very vertically challenged with only one player on the roaster taller than their coach, Jeff Lebo. Free-throw shooting and field-goal percentage are the squad’s specialties, but nearly nothing else is – and rebounding is certainly the team’s biggest weakness. Depth has also been an enormous issue, as rarely do more than six Tigers score in a given game. Prowell leads the team in scoring, although Barber is arguably the team’s most important player with 13.8ppg, 6.9rpg and shooting 72.0% from the field. Quantez Robertson is one of the most under-appreciated point guards in the conference, as he sports 4.3 assists to 1.8 turnovers per game. None of the players have a shot at going pro, and the team loses Archie, Prowell, and Tolbert for next season…a significant scoring loss for a team that can’t afford to lose much depth.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Mississippi State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (L)
@ Arkansas (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-14, 5-11

SEC Tournament

West #4 seed
Round One: vs. South Carolina (E5)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Florida (20-7, 7-5)

The very, very young Gators started off hot and looked to compete for the conference title, standing at 18-3 and 5-1 at one point. Since then, the freshmen have – like Ole Miss’ – hit the “brick wall”, as the squad has gone 2-4. The team is immensely talented (the nation’s top recruiting class for last year) but still very young and look to improve vastly next season. Defense has been shoddy at best, but the offense has been dynamic and nearly unstoppable. Calathes has been the catalyst for the team all season, as he leads the team with 15.3ppg, and also ranks among the top of the conference with 6.1 assists per game. Speights has proven to be a formidable inside prescense, putting up 7.8rpg and shooting 61.6% from the field. Losing noone for next year, this team looks to challenge for the overall SEC title next season and could very well end up as a Final Four threat before its all said and done.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Georgia (W)
vs. Mississippi St. (W)
vs. #1 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

22-9, 9-7

SEC Tournament

East #4 seed
Round One: vs. Alabama (W5)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 9 seed

Georgia (12-13, 3-9)

The Bulldogs, much like Alabama, have competed in nearly every game and played good fundamentals, but simply haven’t pulled through in the clutch. Close games include: 8-point loss at Gonzaga, a win over Arkansas, 5-point loss to Kentucky, 8-point loss to #18 Vanderbilt, 3-point loss to #1 Tennessee, and a 6-point loss at Kentucky. The team rebounds and defends well, but can’t get anything going offensively. Sundiata Gaines has proven to be a dominating player, shooting incredibly well and even averaging 6.6rpg. Gaines has a great potential to make the conference’s first-team, and certainly the second-team. With that said, when your playmaking guard is leading your team in rebounding, someone’s missing some assignments. Gaines will probably test the NBA waters but certainly won’t make the cut, and the team loses Gaines and Bliss headed into next season. Losing Gaines will likely mean yet another season at the bottom of the SEC East.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Ole Miss (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

East #6 seed
Round One: vs. Ole Miss (W3)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Kentucky (15-10, 9-3)

The two most interesting storylines heading into the postseason will be Kentucky and Ole Miss – direct opposites of each other. As the Rebels have a decent overall wins record and RPI, their SEC record is miserable. Conversely, the Wildcats have won just 15 games and have home losses to both Gardner-Webb (L, 68-84) and San Diego (L, 72-81) but have amassed an impressive 9-3 conference record with wins over #18 Vanderbilt, #1 Tennessee, and Arkansas. The team has taken advantage of a solid defensive prescense, decent rebounding, and the conference’s best free-throw shooting to edge into second place in the conference and within a game and a half of Tennessee for the lead. The interesting issue for Kentucky is that the NCAA selection committee will likely either have to leave out a 10+ win SEC team for the first time ever or hand out an at-large to a 18 or 19-win team. Crawford, Patterson, and Bradley each contribute more than 15 points for a Wildcat team that has struggled with talented depth. Patterson will battle Calathes and Ogilvy for SEC Freshman of the Year, averaging 16.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Bradley leads the league in free-throw shooting with an 85.6% mark from the charity stripe. The only likely NBA-bound player will be Patterson, although he would be advised not to leave this season. The Wildcats will take a major blow in the points column by losing both Bradley and Crawford next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

18-11, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Georgia (E6) or Ole Miss (W3)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 10 seed

LSU (10-16, 3-9)

Surprisingly competitve following coach Brady’s firing, the Tigers have since upset Florida, handed a 20-point demolition to Ole Miss, played #1 Tennessee to 2 points, and played Kentucky to 4. However, the big picture is an ugly one for the Tigers, as they trail the entire conference in an enormous amount of statistical categories. Rebounding isn’t good, defense is mediocre, and offense is horrendous. About the only plus for LSU is ranking [a distant] second in the league in blocks per game. Marcus Thornton is the playmaker for the Tigers, as he averages 18.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Anthony Randolph is a quality big-man down low, although he hasn’t fared particularly well against the SEC’s other great big-men, with 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Both players would be legitimate NBA material if on another team, but the obscene lack of depth and the absence of a point-guard for LSU will limit that until the team steps back onto the national scene. As a positive, the team loses noone of importance heading into next season, and should have every opportunity to improve upon this year’s dismal record.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Mississippi State (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

11-19, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #6 seed
Round One: vs. Vanderbilt (E3)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Mississippi State (18-8, 9-3)

With a two-game lead in the West with four games remaining, the Bulldogs have a strangle-hold on the division. Also just a game and a half back overall, the overall title is still a distant hope. None of this would have been predicted earlier in the season when MSU stood at 5-5 on the season with losses to both Miamis and Southern Illinois among others. No terrible losses, but games a Western-Division champion should win. State has improved drastically since that point, with the only noticeable losses being a 20-point blowout at Arkansas and a loss at rival Ole Miss. The team has peeled off this impressive stretch by ranking 2nd in the nation in both field-goal percentage defense and blocking, while sophomore defensive expert Jarvis Varnado leads the entire nation in blocks per game. Varnado has totalled more blocks personally than at least 7 SEC teams as a whole, and has long since surpassed MSU’s all-time single-season block record. Rebounding is also a specialty for the Bulldogs, although ball-handling and free-throw shooting could prove to be fatal shortcomings in the NCAA Tournament. State’s Gordon will challenge Vandy’s Shan Foster for SEC Player of the Year, as the all-america candidate is leading the team with 17.5ppg, 6.3rpg (as a point guard) and 4.7 assists per game – although 4.0 turnovers per game is far from desirable. Rhodes has stepped up his play lately to put himself into the argument for All-SEC First Team. Rhodes will likely throw his name into the draft as a senior, and if Gordon will follow Rhodes into the NBA will perhaps become the SEC’s biggest question this off-season. If not, Gordon could lead the Bulldogs back to the top of the West and to the NCAA’s.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #18 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 11-5

SEC Tournament

West #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Alabama (W5) or Florida (E4)
Semifinals: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 6 seed

Ole Miss (18-8, 4-8)

The Rebels have officially become “this year’s Clemson” after throwing the SEC on its heels by starting 13-0 but since have posted a 4-8 record, including being swept by Auburn and posting a 20-point loss at the SEC’s worst team, LSU. After appearing to be a certain NCAA lock, the team is now teetering on the wrong side of the bubble as the best possible outcome will be a sub-.500 SEC record. The team’s offensive efficiency has been outstanding for most of the season until recently, with freshman Chris Warren leading the charge. Defensively, the Rebels are non-existent although rebounding (behind Curtis) has become a trademark. Warren leads the Rebs both in scoring but in leadership – which has proved a major problem, as he is only a freshman. Curtis follows Hendrix as the conference’s best big-man, nearly averaging a double-double at 14.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. The team is very young and has tons of potential, but will lose most of its frontcourt with the exodus of Curtis (to graduation and then the NBA) and Williams, the teams’ often-overlooked but very talented forward (to graduation). Next year, the Rebels look to be equally as talented offensively but rebounding will suffer badly and defense should continue to struggle.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Georgia (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 6-8

SEC Tournament

West #3 seed
Round One: vs. Georgia (E6)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NIT: 1 seed

South Carolina (12-14, 4-8)

The Gamecocks are a stereotypical USC team – one talented point guard, and very little surrounding him. Downey can’t win every game on his own, and thus the squad has struggled. Amidst Odom’s announcement of his retirement at the end of the season, South Carolina has seemed just fall just short in nearly every game. South Carolina is actually one of the SEC’s best – if not the best – three-point shooting teams from a percentage aspect, but their reliance on the longball can get them into some trouble if they’re not falling. Downey is one of the conference’s top scorers, averaging 19.7 points per game, though he’s also putting up over 17 attempts per game. Downey is responsible, however, for 5.1 assists per outing. As a sophomore, Downey will likely leave his name out of the NBA waters, but he has the talent to get there at some point in his career. Losing literally noone from this year’s team, the Gamecocks are poised to be a competitive bunch next season, depending on the coaching change.v

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-17, 5-11

SEC Tournament

East #5 seed
Round One: vs. Auburn (W4)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Tennessee (25-3, 11-2)

After a thrilling upset of the nation’s top-ranked team in Memphis, the Vols were ushered into the top spot with welcome arms the following Monday. However, the excitement of the program’s first #1 ranking ever was soon lost on Tuesday night, as the Vols dropped a 3-point road decision to 18th-ranked Vanderbilt. Tennessee is still a menacing team sure to stretch their season long into the NCAA Tournament and continue to vie for a top seed barring no more losses until the conference tournament’s final game. Rebounding has been a pleasant surprise for head coach Bruce Pearl, mainly due to his genious coaching skills and the team knowing their placements on shot-selection. The team makes more three-pointers than any other team in the conference, but barely shoots an above-average percentage from that range. Balanced scoring has highlighted the team’s dynamic, as pre-season All-American Chris Lofton’s percentages has suffered this year. He still leads the team in scoring, but isn’t shooting even 40% from the field and is hoisting up almost 2 more shots per game than any other teammate. JuJuan Smith has evolved into a Jamont-Gordon-like dynamic player who’s able to do almost anything with the basketball, and Tyler Smith has lived up to the pre-season hype as one of the nation’s best incoming transfers. The immense wealth of talent that Pearl has so quickly stock-piled is unrivaled in the conference, and any number of players could prove to have NBA skills, including Lofton, Tyler/JuJuan Smith, and others. Because of this, it’s very difficult to pick out who may actually jump, although I suspect both Lofton and JuJuan Smith will put their names in the hat due to their lack of remaining eligibility. Those two are the only players lost for Tennessee (although they are very important pieces to the puzzle), so Tennessee could once again be in the running for a divisional or conference title next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

28-3, 14-2

SEC Tournament

East #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. South Carolina (E5) or Auburn (W4)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 1 seed

Vanderbilt (24-4, 9-4)

The Commodores started off at a red-hot clip, winning 16-straight games before losing 4 of their next 5. Appearing to be mimmicking Ole Miss’ epic implosion, the Commodores bounced back to a very good SEC record and have long since sealed their NCAA fates. The team (seemingly among many others in the Eastern Division) relies heavily on three-point shooting while rebounding isn’t a specialty, and has been anchored by SEC Player of the Year candidate Shan Foster and outstanding SEC Fresham of the Year candidate A.J. Ogilvy. Foster is near the top of the conference in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per contest on an absolutely excellent 51.6% shooting despite putting up over 13 attempts per game. Foster also is shooting over 45% from behind the arc and 5 rebounds per game. Ogilvy has proved formidable on the offensive end and less so on the defensive end, averaging 16.6ppg and 6.8rpg. Both players have NBA potential, although Foster is an almost definite as this is his last year. Ogilvy is a big question-mark, as he’s been on scouts’ radars even since his high-school days in Australia. If the team loses both, next year could be a semi-rebuilding year, although the NCAA’s would still be well within reach.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

at Arkansas (W)
vs. Mississippi State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

27-4, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #3 seed
Round One: vs. LSU (W6)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 3 seed

Wednesday odds…

Overall: 132-31 (81.0%)
Vs. Spread: 58-53 (52.3%)
Overall (SEC): 39-13 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 25-26 (49.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(12-14, 4-8) South Carolina [#133] vs. (10-16, 3-9) LSU [#175]
Spread: South Carolina by 7.5
Pick: LSU – Although the Gamecocks should win, LSU has been improving and this shouldn’t be a blowout.
—Keys: LSU is entirely too unpredictable lately to make any pick of their games with confidence. The Tigers will need to extend their defense against USC’s three-point shooting, and the Gamecocks will need to keep Thornton and Randolph in check.

(12-13, 3-9) Georgia [#132] vs. (20-7, 7-5) Florida [#58]
Spread: Georgia by 1
Pick: Florida – This is one of the more obvious picks of the season. The Bulldogs simply don’t have the talent to match up with the Gators, although Florida is young and playing on the road.
—Keys: Calathes vs. Gaines – which will be contained more effectively?

(18-8, 9-3) Mississippi State [#40] vs. (14-11, 4-8) Auburn [#126]
Spread: Miss. State by 12.5
Pick: Miss. State – The Bulldogs took care of the Tigers in Auburn by 19. This is obviously a mismatch for Auburn size-wise, and should be a blowout.
—Keys:  The Tigers absolutely must stay out of foul trouble and find open shots against a potent defense to stay in the game.

(15-10, 9-3) Kentucky [#65] vs. (18-8, 4-8) Ole Miss [#43]
Spread: Kentucky by 3
Pick: Kentucky – The Rebels have fallen off lately, and the Wildcats know this is a must-win to keep their dim NCAA hopes alive.
—Keys: Watch the Patterson vs. Curtis matchup. The Rebels will need to hit some threes against the talented Kentucky defense.

(14-13, 3-9) Alabama [#130] vs. (18-8, 7-5) Arkansas [#36]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Arkansas – I’m going with the Razorbacks in the win, although the Tide have been tough both away and home and simply haven’t closed out games.
—Keys: If the Tide keep Hendrix out of foul trouble, they have a shot – he is absolutely necessary in the game to keep it close. The Razorbacks will need to take advantage of a very, very weak defense.

Sunday games, Tuesday odds…

Overall: 132-31 (81.0%)
Vs. Spread: 58-53 (52.3%)
Overall (SEC): 39-13 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 25-26 (49.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(14-11, 4-8) Auburn [88] vs. (14-13, 3-9) Alabama [76]: Precisely what I predicted happened – Alabama simply didn’t play enough defense to keep Auburn from scoring a ton of points. ‘Bama lost by double digits despite attempting 10 more shots and outrebounding the Tigers by 4. Both teams put up a ridiculous 28 shots from behind the arc, although Auburn hit 4 more than the Tide. Because of the continuing depth issues, two Tigers scored more than 20, led by Hargrove’s out-of-nowhere game-leading and career-high 28 points on 9-of-12 shooting, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, no turnovers, and 2 blocks. Prowell also pitched in 22 points on 4-of-6 shooting from long range and 9 rebounds. Gee once again attempted enough shots to lead the Tide in scoring with 20 on 8-of-20 shooting and 9 rebounds, while Hendrix continues his consistency with 16 points and 7 rebounds. Riley shot 4-of-8 from behind the arc for 15 points and secured 10 rebounds to record his first double-double of the season.
Impact [Auburn]: This was far from a quality win, and the Tigers still have a long ways to go to even be considered for the NIT.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are now in the group with Auburn and LSU, that being that the postseason is nearly out of the question at this point.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 4 blocks – not bad for the SEC’s shortest team

Tuesday Odds

(23-4, 8-4) #18 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (25-2, 11-1) #1 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 2.5
Pick: Tennessee – A very tough pick, but I think the Vols will carry their momentum over the Commodores.
—Keys: It’s all emotional – will the Vols rebound from an emotional win over Memphis to re-focus quickly on the road for Vanderbilt? If Tennessee can keep up their defensive pressure, the nation’s #1 team should continue winning.

Saturday games…

Overall: 131-31 (80.9%)
Vs. Spread: 57-53 (51.8%)
Overall (SEC): 38-13 (74.5%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 24-26 (48.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(15-10, 9-3) Kentucky [63] vs. (18-8, 7-5) Arkansas [58]: This was an intense game to the very end, as the Razorbacks led much of the game. As will happen in the SEC, however, the visiting team ran out of steam in the final minutes. Neither team shared the ball well, both teams shot decently, and Kentucky won the battle of the boards solidly. With lopsided scoring for both teams, Bradley and Crawford each scored 18 for the Wildcats in the win, combining for 10-of-25 shooting. Patterson rounded out Kentucky scorers in double digits with 14 points and 11 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season. Only two other Wildcats scored. For the Razorbacks, only Weems managed more than 8 points with his 26 on a ridiculous 20 attempts, while last year’s SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly shot just 1-of-8 from the floor for 4 points.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are clinging to their NCAA hopes, as no 10-win team has ever been left out of the NCAA tournament (that I know of). With that said, if the ‘Cats were to win just one more, they’d be the first. If Kentucky were to lose another game, it could prove fatal for their Big Dance hopes.
Impact [Arkansas]: Now two games behind MSU in the SEC West with just four games remaining, they have realistically lost the West. Time to focus on the NCAA’s, as the team will need to at least split their remaining four games to be considered.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 34 rebounds to Arkansas’ 22

(12-14, 4-8) South Carolina [56] vs. (18-8, 9-3) Mississippi State [61]: In the first overtime game for either team this season, the Bulldogs pulled out one of the conference’s most dramatic wins this season. With barely a second remaining in the game, State’s Hansbrough chucked up a desperation three to tie the game and was fouled. Despite the immense pressure, Hansbrough swished all three extra shots to send the game to overtime where MSU – without Varnado or Gordon – dominated. Senior Charles Rhodes was the only State player in double digits with 24 on 11-of-17 shooting along with 9 rebounds, while Varnado brought down 12 rebounds and 7 points. All-america candidate Gordon shot just 3-of-10 for 9 points, 5 rebounds, and an unacceptable 7 turnovers. Downey couldn’t figure out State’s zone, shooting 6-of-18 for 19 points while freshman Mike Holmes proved a spark off the bench with 12 points and 13 rebounds to record his second-straight double-double.
Impact [South Carolina]: With just four games remaining, the NIT is looking like an improbability without winning them all and reaching the SEC Tournament finals.
Impact [Miss. State]: Now 2 games ahead in the West with just four games remaining, State has effectively sealed their stake on the divisional title. The NCAA’s are probable as long as the squad doesn’t drop the “gimme”s (LSU and Auburn at home), so seeding will now be the main focus for the Bulldogs.
Stat of the Game: State’s 43.4% shooting compared to USC’s 30.8%

(23-4, 8-4) #20 Vanderbilt [86] vs. (12-13, 3-9) Georgia [74]: As expected, the Bulldogs’ offense couldn’t keep up with the Commodore offense, and Georgia’s defense wasn’t enough to hold Vandy back. Foster made yet another argument for SEC Player of the Year with 29 points on 11-of-18 shooting and 6 rebounds, while Alex Gordon was no slouch with 23 points on an impressive 7-of-9 shooting from behind the arc and 4 assists. Ogilvy also fared relatively well, shooting 5-of-7 for 14 points and 6 rebounds. Gaines was most of UGA’s offense (surprise, huh?) with 24 points on 19 attempts along with 5 rebounds and 6 assists, Bliss claimed 10 rebounds, and Humphrey added 15 points.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It’s looking like the ‘Dores avoided the major collapse that Ole Miss has experienced and are set for a very substantial seed in the NCAA’s. None of the remaining games are easy, but 2 or 3 more wins could bump up this team to a 3 or 4 seed.
Impact [Georgia]: As with USC, the postseason is out of the question without winning all of the remaining regular season games and reaching the SEC Tournament finals.
Stat of the Game: Only 12 people total scoring points in the game

(10-16, 3-9) LSU [69] vs. (18-8, 4-8) Ole Miss [49]: A loss to LSU would have severely damaged Ole Miss’ NCAA chances, but a 20-point blowout to a bottom-of-the-barrell LSU team and dropping to 0-6 on the road in league play is as close to a knockout blow as they could get. Ironically, neither team shot well but the Rebels – obviously – shot much worse than bad. The SEC’s best rebounding team also got outrebounded by the Tigers and clearly was outhustled in every category. The Tigers were led by a pair of double-doubles, as Randolph put up 15 points and 11 rebounds for his seventh of the season and Chris Johnson contributed 12 points and 15 rebounds for his second of the season. Thornton led all scorers with 17 points. Amazingly, not a single Ole Miss player scored in double digits, with Huertas coming the closest with 9 points on 2-of-11 shooting and 10 rebounds. Polynice shot 2-of-8 but did collect 12 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: With the post-season out of the question, a morale victory and momentum towards next season may be the only positives left available for the Tigers at this point.
Impact [Ole Miss]: As stated before, this was a huge blow for Ole Miss in nearly every way. Unless the Rebels finish 4-0, their NCAA hopes are not good.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss’ 19-of-71 (26.8%) shooting from the floor

(26-1, 12-0) #1 Memphis [#2] (25-2, 11-1) #2 Tennessee [#1]: The clash of top-ranked teams hype lived up to its potential, as the Vols came away with an absolutely tremendous road victory, effectively sealing their argument on the nation’s #1 overall NCAA seed if they win out. Tennessee heavily outrebounded the Tigers but turned the ball over more to negate their rebounding to a degree. The Vols were – again – led by balanced scoring, this time Tyler Smith scored the most with 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting and 6 rebounds. JuJuan Smith added 9 points and led the team with 10 rebounds, while Lofton shot just 2-of-11 and 0-of-4 from long range for 7 points. Rose led the Tigers in scoring with 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: If the Vols can win out, the nation’s top seed is theirs.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 46-31 rebound advantage

Sunday Odds

(13-11, 3-8) Auburn [#139] vs. (14-12, 3-8) Alabama [#122]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Auburn – The Tigers have been playing competitively and should win this game at home due to good shooting and a very, very poor Alabama defense
—Keys: The Tide will need to find some defense. If the Tigers shoot as well as they are capable, this could even be a blowout.

Saturday odds…

Overall: 129-29 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-51 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 36-11 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-24 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 18-6

(14-10, 8-3) Kentucky [#73] vs. (18-7, 7-4) Arkansas [#35]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: Kentucky – The Wildcats are playing well at home and the Razorbacks are playing poorly on the road.
—Keys: Kentucky’s excellent free throw shooting should win them the game

(12-13, 4-7) South Carolina [#118] vs. (17-8, 8-3) Mississippi State [#44]
Spread: Miss. State by 3
Pick: South Carolina – The Gamecocks have the shooting, especially at home, to win this game. USC is one of the SEC’s best three-point shooting teams.
—Keys: As MSU’s defense has been lagging recently, the Bulldogs will need to defend the three to have a chance to win

(22-4, 7-4) #20 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (12-12, 3-8) Georgia [#129]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 7
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Commodores’ offense should overcome the Dogs’ defense relatively easily.
—Keys: Watch out for the Gaines vs. Foster matchup

(9-16, 2-9) LSU [#184] vs. (18-7, 4-7) Ole Miss [#41]
Spread: Ole Miss by 4
Pick: Ole Miss – Although the Tigers are playing better, the Rebels are playing for the NCAA Tournament.
—Keys: This game is a potential back-breaker for the Rebels…how will the freshman handle the pressure?

Saturday games…

Overall: 126-28 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-47 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 33-10 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-20 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 17-6

(9-15, 2-8) LSU [63] vs. (13-10, 7-3) Kentucky [67]: Thornton simply couldn’t find his shot in this game, as he scored 9 points on 4-of-14 shooting. With only two main offensive threats, LSU can’t afford for anyone to have an off-night. Both teams shot well from the field – although the Tigers struggled yet again from long range – and LSU slightly outrebounded the Wildcats. Joe Crawford led Kentucky with 21 points on 3-of-7 shooting from behind the arc, Patterson put up 14 points on 7-of-10 shooting and 5 rebounds, and Bradley hit a perfect 4 free throws, grabbed 7 rebounds and dished 6 assists, but turned the ball over 5 times. Randolph led all scorers with 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting and claimed 14 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season.
Impact [LSU]: The Tigers are finally playing talented teams closely, but it’s far beyond too little too late.
Impact [Kentucky]: Unless the ‘Cats win out, their NCAA chances are gone without winning the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: Without their 3 leading scorers, each team combined for just 34 points.

(22-4, 7-4) #24 Vanderbilt [61] vs. (19-7, 6-5) Florida [58]: Despite Vanderbilt – the conference’s best 3-point shooting team - hitting only 37.9% of their shots from the field, the Gators were held to just 1-of-15 shooting from behind the arc and ultimately fell just one made three short of at least sending the game to overtime. Shan Foster easily led all scorers with 19 points on 7-of-16 shooting along with 6 rebounds while Ogilvy neared double-double status with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Calathes and Speights each contributed 11 for the Gators – Calathes with 6 assists to 3 turnovers – and Hodge added  10 points and 5 assists to 1 turnover.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Now playing for seeding with an NCAA bid effectively in-hand, the ‘Dores will stay in the Top 25 and continue receiving exposure with the win.
Impact [Florida]: Realistically in the NCAA’s barring a major implosion, the Gators are also battling for seeding. With their very weak non-conference SOS, the squad will need to rack up some wins late to receive a decent seed.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 6.7% three-point shooting

(12-11, 3-7) Georgia [71] vs. (23-2, 10-1) #4 Tennessee [74]: Give the Volunteers credit for finding ways to win on the road, because they trailed much of this game. The contest evolved into a shooting match between Gaines and Lofton, and ended similar to the overall score – close. Lofton put up 22 points on 6-of-12 shooting from behind the arc (wow) while Chism managed 16 points and 9 rebounds and Tyler Smith recorded 12 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season. Gaines outscored Lofton by 1 with 23 points on 8-of-20 shooting, 9 rebounds, and 8 assits to approach triple-double status, and Woodbury had 14 points and 6 rebounds for the Bulldogs.
Impact [Georgia]: NIT hopes are still alive for the Bulldogs, but just barely as the team would need to nearly win out to make the cut. With that said, a three-point loss to a national-title contender is something to be proud of for a 12-11 team.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols are looking increasingly vulnerable, but a trip to Memphis this weekend should solidify the winner of that game as the nation’s top overall seed. The Vols still must visit Vanderbilt and Florida as well, both games to keep an eye on if Tennessee hopes to maintain their status as a top seed.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 46.2% free throw shooting

(17-7, 8-2) Mississippi State [80] vs. (17-7, 6-4) Arkansas [74]: State dominated the first half, eating through the Arkansas defense and leading by 13. The ‘Backs came to life in the second, though, and went on a 19-4 run to open the half and regain the lead. Apparently the Dogs have been working on their putrid free-throw shooting, because for seemingly the up-teenth time this season free-throw shooting down the stretch won them the game. Senior Charles Rhodes scored 19 points by halftime and finished with 24 – including a made three-pointer – but only 1 rebound while Stewart shot 3-of-5 from behind the arc and a perfect 6-of-6 from the charity stripe to contribute 19 points. Varnado swatted just 3 points but grabed 10 rebounds and scored 10 points for the fourth double-double of the season. Gary Ervin played well in his last game playing at his former school, shooting 6-of-11 from the field along with 2-of-3 shooting from behind the arc.
Impact [Miss. State]: With the win, State has full control of the Western Division without a huge turnaround for both teams. MSU has effectively moved into the “probably” category for the NCAA’s, but at least 3 more wins either in the regular season or in the conference tournament will be needed to solidify their stake.
Impact [Arkansas]: As stated above, the West if now firmly in the hands of MSU. Arkansas still has a distant shot, however, and still appear to be a solid pick for the NCAA’s, but as with State, a few more wins will be needed to assure themselves a spot.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s +8 rebound advantage

(17-7, 3-7) Ole Miss [78] vs. (13-10, 3-7) Auburn [90]: After an undefeated run through the non-conference schedule, the Rebels are trying as hard as they can to play themselves out of the NCAA’s. Auburn’s superior ball-handling and the Rebels’ lack of defense allowed the Tigers to scorch the nets, hitting 32-of-51 attempts. Two Auburn players scored more than 20 points, led by Prowell’s 25 on 11-of-15 shooting from the field, including 3-of-5 from behind the arc. Reed wasn’t far behind with 23 points on 5-of-10 shooting, including a 4-of-7 effort from long range, but turned the ball over 5 times. Warren didn’t shoot nearly as often as usualy, bringing down just 8 points, as freshman Trevor Gaskins was the surprise lead scorer for Ole Miss with 15 points.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This was possibly the most destructive loss of the season for the Rebels, as the squad has now been swept by a 3-7 Auburn team. The Rebels will need a 4-2 mark or better in the remainder of their schedule to even be considered for the NCAA’s.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers are playing decently well, but they can’t afford to lose more than one the remainder of the way if they hope to make the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 62.7% shooting percentage

(12-12, 4-6) South Carolina [67] vs. (14-12, 3-8) Alabama [65]: Another matchup of shooters, this time of Downey and Riley. Alabama heavily outshot the Gamecocks percentage-wise, but USC forced 18 turnovers and claimed 4 more offensive rebounds to attempt a full 22 more shots than the Tide. Downey led all scorers for the Gamecocks with 29 points on 6-of-10 shooting from long range and a game-high 7 steals. Archie shot 6-of-12 for 17 points. Riley fell just a point shy of Downey with 28 points on an incredible 8-of-10 effort from behind the arc along with 9 rebounds while Hendrix contributed the 13th double-double of the season with 17 points and 10 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: As with Georgia, the Gamecocks are still in the running for the NIT, but barely. An almost undefeated record from here out would be necessary.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are in a similar boat, as a near-perfect record in the remainder of the schedule will be necessary to be considered for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Riley/Downey combining for 43.2% of the game’s points

Saturday odds…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 15-6

(9-14, 2-7) LSU [#176] vs. (12-10, 6-3) Kentucky [#84]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: LSU – I’m picking the Tigers in the upset. Although the Wildcats have been a better team, both teams have depth troubles and LSU has the momentum and home floor.
—Keys: Patterson will need to forge a way through some talented big-men while Randolph/Thornton will need to stay hot. Look for a very low-scoring game.

(21-4, 6-4) #24 Vanderbilt [#12] vs. (19-6, 6-4) Florida [#61]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 3.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Gators are very young and should fall by 5+ on the road.
—Keys: All eyes are on Florida to see how the talented team reacts to losing an embarassing decision at home to LSU. Both teams are essentially playing for NCAA seeding.

(12-10, 3-6) Georgia [#121] vs. (22-2, 9-1) #4 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 6.5
Pick: Tennessee – This was a tough call because this very well could be a close game, but the Bulldogs don’t have the depth to match the Volunteers.
—Keys: Both defenses are pretty good, but Georgia’s will have to step up big time to pull out the “W”. An interesting bet would be who scores more: Gaines or Lofton?

(16-7, 7-2) Mississippi State [#51] vs. (17-6, 6-3) Arkansas [#28]
Spread: Miss. State by 5
Pick- Mississippi State – This was the most difficult call all season, but I will almost always choose the home team in a draw.
—Keys: This game could decide the West, and both teams have hurt their momentum lately. Arkansas should be relying on Weems and Beverly from outsie while State should be relying on Rhodes inside and Gordon to get to the lane.

(17-6, 3-6) Ole Miss [#31] vs. (12-10, 2-7) Auburn [#173]
Spread: Ole Miss by 13.5
Pick: Ole Miss – The Tigers have not been playing well and do not have the size to match up with Curtis in the paint, while relying on threes on the road can spell trouble.
—Keys: As long as the Rebels’ 3-point defense is decent, this should be a relatively easy win.

(11-12, 3-6) South Carolina [#111] vs. (14-11, 3-7) Alabama [#108]
Spread: South Carolina by 2
Pick: South Carolina – Both teams are on the upswing, but the Gamecocks are playing better at home than the Tide is playing on the road.
—Keys: If Alabama turns the ball over more than 20 times, they have no chance to win.

Tuesday and Wednesday games…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 15-6

Tuesday Game

(21-4, 6-4) #24 Vanderbilt [93] vs. (12-10, 6-3) Kentucky [52]: This game will go down in infamy as denoting Kentucky’s single worst loss to an SEC opponent in history. In a seemingly perfect storm, the Commodores couldn’t go wrong on offense, blind-siding Kentucky with open threes, easy layups, and backdoor cuts while the Wildcats simply couldn’t do anything on defense. Stallings figured out how to keep Patterson out of the game and the Wildcats got in foul trouble by forcing the ball inside. In a matchup of SEC Freshman of the Year candidates, Ogilvy dominated Patterson, shooting 5-of-10 along with 9-of-11 from the charity stripe for 19 points and claiming 12 rebounds. Conversely, Patterson shot 3-of-9 from the field and managed 5 rebounds. Neither inside man blocked a shot. Foster led the ‘Dores in scoring per the usual, chipping in 20 points while Bradley was the only hope for Kentucky with a game-high 21 on 8-of-19 shooting. The main difference was Vandy’s bench, as they outscored Kentucky’s heavily.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Despite this being a game the ‘Dores were “supposed” to win at home, the 41-point blowout of Kentucky put an emphatic “Yes” after the question as to whether the ‘Dores would still make the Dance. It’s all about seeding at this point.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are still easily over .500 in-conference, but after this nationally-televised humiliation, the ‘Cats will likely need to win nearly ever game from here on out to become an at-large.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s bench scoring 25 points versus Kentucky’s 10.

Wednesday Games

(14-11, 3-7) Alabama [76] vs. (17-6, 3-6) Ole Miss [67]: The Rebels’ road problems continue as Ole Miss assumes position as college basketball’s ultimate dive-bomb for this season. However, let’s not forget the youth of this team and how remarkable 14-straight wins was – if the team had been 3-6 without the undefeated record little would be said, because this is the kind of performance expected by such a young team. The game was close as the Tide pulled away late, and no team dominated any categories except ball-handling and free throws. Five Tide members scored in double digits, led by Riley’s impressive 22-point outing on 5-of-12 shooting from behind the arc – someone was desperate to get some shots up – and 7 rebounds. Hendrix didn’t get enough touches, with only 8 shot attempts, but 8 rebounds while Gee shot poorly but added 9 rebounds. Warren shot a miserable 5-of-19 (relying a little too heavily on one player, guys?) for 13 points and Hendrix kept Curtis from being a factor offensively, as he pulled down only 3 points.
Impact [Alabama]: The bottom of the West is becoming muddled, but that is irrelevant, truthfully. Alabama is realistically out of the NCAA chase, and will need a 4-2 mark or so from here on out to have an argument for the NIT.
Impact [Ole Miss]: Despite their impressive beginning, it’s beginning to look more and more like the Rebels will be a high seed in the NIT. 20 wins may not do it, so a 4-3 mark at very least will be needed to be considered for the NCAA’s.
Stat of the Game: The Rebels’ 9:16 assist-to-turnover ratio

(19-6, 6-4) Florida [73] vs. (9-14, 2-7) LSU [85]: In what was possibly the SEC’s biggest upset of this season, the Tigers led most of this game and won by 12. After losing to Tennessee by only 2 at home and following that up with a 12-point road win over the Gators, the question is nagging everyone: Is LSU better off without John Brady? It certainly appears so. Two Tigers scored at least 20 points, as Randolph led all scorers with 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting and 5 rebounds while Thornton added 20 on 8-of-11 shooting (including 4-of-7 from three) and 4 steals. Johnson also shot 8-of-11, his for 19 points while two other Tigers scored in double digits. Calathes led the Gators with 16 points and 5 assists, along with an uncharacteristic 5 turnovers, while Werner shot just 6-of-16 (and 1-of-7 from long range) for 13 points.
Impact [Florida]: Although this should still relatively easily be an NCAA team, the team will need at least a 2-4 mark or so from here on out to solidify their stake. The impact of this loss could be felt down the line as the team has now officially fallen out of the race for the East – keep an eye on the squad’s motivation after a tough loss.
Impact [LSU]: It’s tough to hear, but it’s too little too late for the Tigers. Even if LSU won the remainder of their games and made the SEC Tournament finals, they likely would be left out of even the NIT.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s +18 rebound margin

(12-10, 3-6) Georgia [82] vs. (11-12, 3-6) South Carolina [64]: In a game of very little consequence outside of UGA or USC fans, the Bulldogs managed to attempt to make a statement in this 18-point blowout. This game was pure domination in every aspect – especially in the rebounding collumn, where’s Georgia’s margin was just obscene. After putting up 32 on Florida in Gainesville, Sundiata Gaines came out hot again to register 27 against the Gamecocks on 8-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-7 from behind the arc, along with 8 rebounds. Two ‘Dogs recorded double-doubles for their first times this season, Bliss with 12 points and 10 rebounds and Price with 19 points and 12 rebounds. Downey was everything for USC, scoring 20 points on a 4-of-7 effort from behind the arc along with 5 assists and 3 steals.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little. The ‘Dogs are out of the race for the NCAA’s and will need a tremendous 6-1 showing to be considered for the NIT.
Impact [South Carolina]: Very little. The Gamecocks are battling for last place in the East and will need a nearly perfect record from here on out for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: UGA’s 42-19 rebound advantage

(22-2, 9-1) #4 Tennessee [93] vs. (17-6, 6-3) Arkansas [71]: In a game with tremendous consequences for both teams, the Vols ironically seemed to sneak up on a 22-point blowout. The game seemed very competitive, and yet the Vols slowly added to their comfortable lead. Tennessee shot noticeably better, but otherwise very little stands out about the game statistically. JuJuan Smith stole the show, tying a season-high with 32 points on 9-of-13 from the field, but more impressively – a 6-of-6 mark from behind the arc. Tyler Smith and Chism each pitched in 15 points while Lofton was suffocated when he touched the ball and it was noticeable in his stats: 2-of-8 from the field and 0-of-3 from behind the arc, finishing with just 6 points. Weems has been carrying the ‘Backs lately, as he created most of Arkansas’ offense with his 20 points on 8-of-17 shooting along with a 3-of-6 mark from long range along with 7 rebounds.
Impact [Tennessee]: With the win, the Vols have pretty much tied up the overall SEC title barring a major misjudgement of Arkansas or MSU. The Vols are still one of the frontrunners for a #1 seed nationally.
Impact [Arkansas]: With the loss, the ‘Backs have effectively fallen out of the overall SEC title race. The race is on for the West, though, with the ‘Backs travelling to Starkville to face MSU in a game that should effectively decide the winner of the division.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 44.4% shooting from behind the arc

Saturday games…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 13-5

(11-9, 5-2) Kentucky [62] vs. (13-10, 2-6) Alabama [52]: In a matchup of similar styles, the Crimson Tide simply couldn’t find any points against Kentucky’s defense, shooting just 37.3% from the field and being outrebounded by six. Ramel Bradley led the Wildcats, as he’s been playing very well lately, with 19 points on 3-of-6 shooting from long range but 4 turnovers to go along with it. Patterson had a decent game in the absence of Hendrix due to a sickness, shooting 5-of-11 from the field for 12 points and grabbing seven rebounds. Yamene Coleman stepped up in Hendrix’s place and played well, hitting 5-of-7 shots but his rebounding is poor, as he only claimed 2. Riley – who has also been hot lately – brought down 19 to lead the Tide along with 4 rebounds, but also 4 turnovers. Gee had a miserable night, hitting only 1 shot out of 9 attempted and 3 rebounds.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are trying to become the ultimate underdog to the NCAA’s. It’s still very unlikely, but it’s theoretically possible. The ‘Cats can’t afford a single injury or a single loss to a “lesser” team, period.
Impact [Alabama]: As only the NIT’s are in sight for the Tide, a 5-3 mark or a 4-4 with a win in the SEC tournament will be necessary for post-season play.
Stat of the Game: Both teams’ combined 2:3 assist-to-turnover ratio

(17-5, 6-2) Arkansas [75] vs. (16-5, 3-5) Ole Miss [69]: This game was close until the Razorbacks began to pull away late in the second half, and then the Rebels mounted a small comeback but it would not be enough. The Rebels are now joining Vanderbilt as the most overrated teams in the country headed into conference play, and the Razorbacks managed to keep their dreams for the Western Division title alive. Despite being outshot heavily, the ‘Backs managed to outrebound the Rebs and force enough turnovers to stay on top. Weems, who’s scored more than 20 4 out of the last 6 games, led the Razorbacks with 22 points and actually grabbed 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. The ‘Backs were one of two SEC teams with two double-doubles in the same game, as Beverly put up 17 points and an impressive 13 rebounds. He’s a shot guard – that still blows my mind. Anyways…Warren led all scorers on the game with a career-high 26 points on 9-of-15 shooting (including a blazing 6-of-8 from behind the arc) and Curtis recorded his seventh double-double in the last eight games with 12 points and a game-high 14 rebounds.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win was a big one to get out of the way for the ‘Backs, but their next two-game stretch could define the West. The ‘Backs will face league-leading Tennessee at home before heading to Starkville to take on the Bulldogs of Mississippi State.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels have to find a way to stop the bleeding, and they should be able to do so with Presbyterian at home followed by a trip to Alabama and then Auburn at home. If the Rebels don’t at least win four of their next eight games, the NCAA’s might be out of reach.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ +9 rebound advantage

(12-10, 2-7) Auburn [64] vs. (16-7, 7-2) Mississippi State [83]: Absolute domination can be the only description of this game despite a mere 19-point difference. The Tigers were suffocated on offense, outrebounded by a foresaken amount, and disassembled on defense. The only MSU fault in the game was turnovers, as State coughed it up 24 times. MSU outrebounded Auburn 46-27, shot 52.1% and held the Tigers to 33.8%, and blocked 9 shots. Two Bulldogs pulled down double-doubles, as Gordon led all scorers with 24 points on 11-of-12 shooting from the charity stripe and claimed a career-high-tying 13 rebounds to register two-straight double-doubles while Charles Rhodes recorded his third in the last four games with his 17 points and 10 rebounds. Hansbrough, fresh back from mono, put up 20 points on 4-of-7 shooting from three-point range. Barrett led the Tigers with 18 points despite a 7-of-22 shooting performance, while Tolbert and Robertson managed 17 and 16 respectively. State also hit 23-of-26 free throws (88.5%) to put up their highest free-throw percentage with at least 6 attempted since the 2004-05 campaign while Varnado broke MSU’s all-time single-season block record with at least nine games remaining in the season.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers’ chances at the postseason are dimming quickly, as they can afford very few more losses. Although the team may upset someone before the season is over, it’s becoming safe to place Auburn in the “afterthought” category.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs obviously came out very focused for this game and continue to hold a one-game lead on the West. The NCAA’s are quickly becoming a likely scenario, and next Saturday’s matchup against Arkansas could be to decide who wins the division.
Stat of the Game: State shooting 19.5% better than Auburn from three

(19-5, 6-3) Florida [77] vs. (11-10, 2-6) Georgia [67]: In a surprisingly competitive game, the Gators simply had no answer for Sundiata Gaines. However, hot shooting from three and effective rebounding won them the game. Four Gators scored in double digits, led by freshman Chandler Parsons’ 18 points and 6 rebounds. Calathes had a sub-par game, hitting only 1-of-7 shots for 7 points, handing out 6 assists but turning the ball over 4 times. Gaines was obviously the star of the game, hitting 11-of-20 shots, including 4-of-7 from three, for a crazy 32 points, claiming 9 rebounds and dishing out 5 assists. Bliss has picked up offensively as of late, shooting 4-of-7 in this game for a reasonable 13 points and 6 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are now nearly a lock for the NCAA’s assuming they manage to finish above .500 in the conference which would require just 3 more wins out of their remaining 7. Seeding will now be the focus, as their SOS is very weak, and they’re not quite out of the race for the East yet – but they’re pretty close.
Impact [Georgia]: The Bulldogs know they have one star player, but unfortunately that won’t be enough to win many games. The postseason is nearly out of contention at this point, as the Bulldogs are joining Auburn in the “afterthought” category.

(8-14, 1-7) LSU [45] vs. (21-2, 8-1) #7 Tennessee [47]: In what was to me the most surprising outcome of the day, the Vols nearly overlooked the Tigers enough to drop an embarassing conference game and completely lose any argument for a top NCAA seed. As the score suggests, the Vols couldn’t find any offense against the Tigers – they do have a relatively decent defense, ya know – and were held to some of their lowest perecentage shooting of the year. Lofton continues his hot hand, however, as he shot 3-of-5 from long range and 6-of-12 from the floor for 15 points, but Tyler Smith was the only other Volunteer in double digits as he shot 5-of-13 from the field. Chris Johnson has returned in the past week or two for the Tigers and has been effective, leading all scorers in this game with 17 points on 8-of-15 shooting along with 8 rebounds. Thornton managed 12 points and 7 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times.
Impact [LSU]: This team’s fate is already decided, so this could be seen as a moral victory at best.
Impact [Tennessee]: It was obvious the Vols needed a wake-up call, and this was certainly one of those. The team will need to re-focus quickly, as a game against Arkansas at home awaits them. A top NCAA seed is still within reach.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 22 turnovers

(11-11, 3-5) South Carolina [65] vs. (20-4, 5-4) #23 Vanderbilt [66]: One missed defensive assignment is all it took for the Gamecocks to lose in the final seconds of the game. Vanderbilt was held to a reasonably low percentage from behind the arc, rebounds were similar, and turnovers were low for both teams. As the score indicates, the stats were very similar. Foster led all scorers with 21 points on 5-of-11 shooting from three-point along with 8 rebounds, and Ogilvy put up 15 points on 7-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds. A somewhat surprising Evaldas Baniulis scored a season-high and team-high 19 points on 7-of-8 shooting from the floor, including 5-of-5 from behind the arc, while Downey handed out 7 assists without a turnover.
Impact [South Carolina]: The postseason is becoming increasingly unlikely, but isn’t quite out of the question yet. However, a 6-2 mark from here and a win in the conference tournament would likely be necessary.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Now that the Commodores are over .500 in the conference and have 20 wins, a NCAA bid should be relatively close to in-hand. Seeding will be hard to increase because of a weak SOS, and the Eastern division is likely out of the question.
Stat of the Game: Only 17 combined free throws attempted

Wednesday games…

(12-9, 2-6) Auburn [63] vs. (11-9, 5-2) Kentucky [66]: Both teams’ lack of depth was miserably evident in this game, as only six players managed to score for either team. After a late surge, the Auburn Tigers fell three points short in the final seconds to drop to 2-6. Each team had a 20-point scorer, as Crawford was Kentucky’s leader on 8-of-12 shooting, 5 rebounds, but 6 turnovers. Patterson was only a point behind with 19 on 8-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds against a height-challenged Tiger team. Prowell put up 20 for Auburn and fell just a rebound shy of a double-double. Interestingly, the game’s combined number of rebounds was only 44 – a number easily matched by teams such as Arkansas, MSU, and Tennessee in a single game.
Impact [Auburn]: A 6-2 mark will ne necessary from here on out for any serious post-season consideration, which effectively has eliminated the Tigers from contention for nearly anything meaningful outside of a SEC Tournament run.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats have certainly picked up their game as of late, but will it be too little too late? A NCAA bid would need a miracle run, but the ‘Cats have the talent to make it…but do they have the depth?
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s wildly hot 66.7% shooting

(11-9, 2-5) Georgia [59] vs. (19-4, 4-4) #23 Vanderbilt [67]: Although Vandy’s hot hand from behind the arc cooled a good bit, the Bulldogs couldn’t take advantage of it down the stretch, including just a 52.6% mark from the charity stripe. Vanderbilt’s scoring was very well-balanced, as four players scored between 12 and 14 points, led by Gordon’s 4-of-8 shooting from three. Ogilvy put up 12 points on 3-of-9 shooting (very poor for an inside man), 6 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Gaines and Price each contributed 16 for Georgia on a combined 12-of-22 shooting performance, while Gaines added 11 rebounds for third double-double of the season.
Impact [Georgia]: If the Bulldogs were to compete for a post-season bid, they would need to win their home games against a suspiciously overrated Vanderbilt team.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: After falling solidly out of the race for the Eastern Division, the Commodores are pretty close to a lock for the NCAA Tournament barring a winless remainder of the season.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s +6 turnover margin

(15-7, 6-2) Mississppi State [73] vs. (13-10, 2-6) Alabama [66]: The sweep proved more difficult for the Bulldogs than expected, as the visiting Crimson Tide tried several times late in the game to regain the lead. MSU was surprisingly below average (as compared to absolutely horrendous) from the charity stripe, as Alabama was typically miserable. Two Bulldogs scored 17 points in Gordon and Rhodes and a combined 15 rebounds. Gordon also handed out 10 assists and only turned the ball over 1 time. Gee led Alabama scorers with 16 points, but was held to 4-of-18 shooting and five rebounds and four other Tide player scored in double digits.
Impact [Miss. State]: With Arkansas not playing mid-week, State now leads the West by a game. Winning on the road at Auburn will be a must to set up the Arkansas at MSU game to practically define the Western Division championship.
Impact [Alabama]: This could serve as a small moral victory, but the Tide seem to be floundering at the moment. Any post-season play seems highly unlikely at the moment.
Stat of the Game: MSU shooting 11.9% better than Alabama

Saturday games…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 11-5

 (11-8, 2-4) Georgia [58] vs. (10-9, 4-2) Kentucky [63]: Despite attempting 17 fewer shots and being outrebounded by 8, the Wildcats’ Joe Crawford willed his team to victory offensively while the ‘Cats shut down the Bulldogs defensively. Crawford scored 26 points on a 5-of-6 mark from behind the arc and 5 rebounds, while the only other Wildcat in double digits was Patterson with 16 points and 6 rebounds. Georgia was led by Gaines’ 15 points on 7-of-15 shooting and 7 rebounds, while Woodbury and Bliss pitched in 12 and 10 points, respectively.
Impact [Georgia]: This seemingly was a knock-out punch for the Bulldogs, who are effectively dead in the East now. Georgia will need a bare minimum of 6-4 from here out to be considered for the postseason.
Impact [Kentucky]: Now only a game back in the East, the Wildcats are strangely closer to challenging for the SEC title than they are a postseason bid. 7-3 or 8-2 is still necessary from here on out.
Stat of the Game: Crawford and Patterson combining for 59.6% of Kentucky’s shot attempts

(13-9, 2-5) Alabama [81] vs. (8-13, 1-6) LSU [72]: For the second game in a row, LSU actually found some offense, and this time against one of the better defenses in the SEC. However, it wasn’t enough to pull the “W”. Hendrix had a monster game (as you would expect against a team as thin as LSU) with 19 points on 9-of-18 shooting and a tremendous 17 rebounds, 4 steals, and 3 blocks. Riley also claimed 19 points along with 5 rebounds while Gee pitched in 15 points and Hollinger added 10 points, 6 assists, and only 1 turnover. The Tigers actually saw four players in double digits, Thornton easily leading the way with 22 points on 7-of-19 shooting while Randolph recorded his fifth double-double of the season with 13 points and 12 rebounds. Johnson and Martin added 13 and 12 points apiece, respectively.
Impact [Alabama]: One very small step towards anything positive. The Tide have a long way to go if they want to make any noise at the end of the season.
Impact [LSU]: When accepting moral victories, this could be seen as one – Tennessee played Alabama about this close on the road.
Stat of the Game: Hendrix/Riley/Gee taking 71.2% of Alabama’s shot attempts

(16-5, 5-2) Arkansas [80] vs. (18-4, 5-2) Florida [61]: In proving their 20-point victory over Mississippi State was no fluke, the Razorbacks also placed themselves firmly in the thick of the race for the overall SEC title with a 19-point thrashing of the visiting Gators. Weems has been on absolute fire from behind the arc in the last three games, hitting 13 of his last 19 attempts. He was 3-of-4 in this game to lead al scorers with 17 points, as both teams are very talented and deep. Beverly has undergone the strangest transformation in the conference, as he is now no longer a consistent threat as a shooter but easily leads a very physical team in rebounds per game – as a shot guard. Beverly has recorded double-figures in rebounds in 5 of the last 6 games with 12 against Arkansas, but he shot only 3-of-10 from the field. The potent Gator offense seemed to run into a brick wall in Fayetteville, trailing at the half 46-21 and shooting only 33.3% from the floor as a team for the game. Calathes notched 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists, while Speights and Hodge recorded 12 and 13 points respectively.
Impact [Arkansas]: After defeating the hottest team in the league, the Razorbacks are now the hottest team in the league. Only one game out of the overall lead set by Tennessee, the battle for the West between the ‘Backs and MSU should be entertaining.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators remain just a game back in the East, but the young team will need to learn quickly what it means to keep your eyes forward.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas shooting 20.9% better than Florida from the floor

(18-4, 3-4) #23 Vanderbilt [78] vs. (12-8, 2-5) Auburn [71]: After trailing a good deal in the second half, the Tigers mounted a tremendous comeback and made the game competitive again. Their height simply wasn’t enough, though, as the Commodores out-shot and out-rebounded their opponents significantly. Ogilvy finally had a big game against an SEC opponent (he was bound to against a height-limited squad like Auburn) as he scored 19 points on 6-of-9 shooting and 9 rebounds. Auburn’s Tolbert easily had the biggest game of his season, bringing down 32 points on 10-of-19 shooting including 5-of-8 from long range and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores are struggling to reach .500 in conference play, but anything close should be an NCAA bid, as the squad has already secured 18 wins.
Impact [Auburn]: With any divisional title out of reach, the Tigers will need at least a 6-3 mark from here on out to reach the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Auburn shooting over 3% better from behind the arc than from the floor

(16-4, 3-4) #19 Ole Miss [77] vs. (11-10, 3-4) South Carolina [80]: This could be the defining upset of the SEC season. Ole Miss, even with 3 losses, looked to compete in the West with Arkansas and Mississippi Sate. With this home loss to a sub-par South Carolina team, the Rebels are nearly out barring a major turn of events. Downey and Archie dealt the damage for the Gamecocks, combining for 45 points on 17-of-28 shooting. Curtis brought down his 11th double-double of the season, and 5th in a row, with 25 points and 10 rebounds. Ultimately, the Rebels’ lack of defense proved their downfall, with USC doing what they do well – shoot threes.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This was a huge blow to the Rebels. Now having learned that defense will be needed to win in the SEC, the goal will shift now to a decent NCAA seed rather than the Western title.
Impact [South Carolina]: Although USC is likely out of any divisional title discussion, the Gamecocks are wreaking havock on Western Division home floors. Still, a 7-2 mark from here out will be necessary for an NIT bid.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 11-of-22 shooting from long range

(14-7, 5-2) Mississippi State [71] vs. (19-2, 6-1) #7 Tennessee [76]: This was the most exciting finish to a game I’ve seen in quite a while. After trailing by as many as 17 with 6 minutes remaining in the game, State’s Barry Stewart and Jamont Gordon hit 7 of their next 8 three-pointers to close the gap to two and possession within 30 seconds, only to turn the ball over and see the Volunteers ice the game from the free throw line. Lofton seems to have found his stroke in the past few games, as he scored 20 points on 4-of-9 shooting from behind the arc. JuJuan Smith added 15 points and 5 rebounds in the win. Stewart was clearly the best shooter during the game, however, hitting 6-of-8 shots from behind the arc to notch 21 points and lead all scorers. Rhodes grabbed his second double-double in a row with 15 points and 10 rebounds, and Gordon managed 17 points but shot 4-of-12, and dished out 6 assists.
Impact [Miss. State]: Having lost two in a row, will the Bulldogs be able to turn around their momentum? Still in the lead in the West, they seem to be heading downwards while Arkansas is on their way up. Three winnable games up next, and all are must-wins if the Dogs hope to win the division.
Impact [Tennessee]: With what could possibly be their toughest conference game out of the way, the Vols should be set for an overall SEC title.
Stat of the Game: MSU shooting better but attempting 16 fewer shots than Tennessee

Wednesday games, Saturday odds…

Overall: 118-24 (83.1%)
Vs. Spread: 52-39 (57.1%)
Overall (SEC): 25-6 (80.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 19-12 (61.3%)
East vs. West: East, 8-4

(10-10, 2-4) South Carolina [62] vs. (11-7, 2-3) Georgia [56]: Although South Carolina failed the “keys” test by hitting only 23.5% of thier long balls, the Gamecocks took care of the ball and played enough defense to defeat the Bulldogs at home. Fredrick took nearly double the shots of any other USC squad member, hitting 8-of-17 for 23 points to go along with 6 rebounds. Archie neared a double-double with 13 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey distributed 5 assists to only 1 turnover. Georgia featured pretty balanced and well-rounded scoring, led by Woodbury’s 15 points and 9 rebounds along with Bliss’ 12 points and 8 rebounds. Gaines suffered a strangely unproductive night, bringing home only 7 points on 2-of-8 shooting and 7 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: These are desperate times for both of these teams. Deafeating a weak Georgia team at home will mean little in the grand scheme of things, as a 7-3 mark and a win in the SEC Tournament will be needed for any post-season play.
Impact [Georgia]: Almost ditto. If the Bulldogs can’t win on the road against the only other argument for the East’s weakest team, wins will be hard to come by for the remainder of the season.
Stat of the Game: South Carolina attempting 9 more free throws (16-7)

(16-3, 3-3) #19 Ole Miss [74] vs. (17-4, 2-4) #23 Vanderbilt [58]: My first impression is shock that this wasn’t more of a 90-70 game, as the high tempo seemed to rattle both teams’ offense. The talent of Ole Miss, however, will rarely lose at home and the Commodores haven’t been producing on the road. The Rebels were led by Chris Warren’s 20 points and 5 rebounds along with Polynice’s 18 points on 8-of-13 shooting and 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Williams also notched his fifth double-double of the season with 10 points and rebounds apiece as Curtis had an uncharacteristic off-night, shooting only 1-of-6 from the floor. Foster recorded the second-straight disappointing outing in this game, following a 7-point outing at Florida with a 5-of-13 14-point performance at Ole Miss. Ogilvy continues to struggle in SEC play (as I suspected he would), claiming 10 points and 4 rebounds for the ‘Dores.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The big win will keep the Rebels from falling off of the national map completely, but half of the SEC season is nearly over and the team has a 2-game trail behind MSU in the West. The difference will come down to road games, where the Rebels have not been performing.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It seems as if Vanderbilt “is this year’s Clemson”, as they say, but it is easy to forget that the Commodores were on the receiving end of a royal boot in the backside by the SEC. After 6 road games in an 8-game span, the ‘Dores will need to win at least 1 or 2 and hold serve at home to put themselves back in the NCAA at-large discussion.
Stat of the Game: The SEC’s #1 offense in Vanderbilt shooting just 34.9% from the field

(12-7, 2-4) Auburn [80] vs. (8-12, 1-5) LSU [81]: The Bayou Bengals proved they have some bite left in them and actually won a road game. This was a tremendous upset if you take into account that LSU has been defeated by an average of 12.4 points per game in the SEC thus far, including a 7-point loss to Auburn at home along with the fact that Auburn was one game out of the Western Division title last season. Auburn’s lack of size simply had no options to guard Marchus Thornton or Anthony Randolph, and Brady took full advantage of it. Thornton easily recorded the biggest night of his young career as he brought home 38 points (more than any other SEC player in any game so far this season) on 14-of-23 shooting and Randolph added 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting. The rest of the LSU team combined for 22 points. Five Auburn players scored in double-figures in the loss, with Prowell pulling down a season-high 26 points on 9-of-12 shooting along with 7 rebounds and Tolbert/Reed/Barrett/Hargrove scoring between 11 and 15 each.
Impact [Auburn]: With the West seemingly less muddled than last year, this will almost certainly finalize the Tigers’ lack of competency in the division. Finish at or above .500 in the remaining 10 games, and Auburn might have an argument for the NIT.
Impact [LSU]: Although the team’s fate in the West has been sealed, the win will be one of few arguments LSU will have if in the discussion for an NIT bid (although that’s nearly impossible at this point).
Stat of the Game: Thornton/Randolph combining for 72.8% of LSU’s points

(15-5, 4-2) Arkansas [78] vs. (14-6, 5-1) Mississippi State [58]: I’m beginning to be all too accurate at predicting “hangovers”. After their 20-point victory at home over then 15th-ranked Ole Miss, State showed up to this one unfocused and unmotivated, turning the ball over 22 times. Weems had another big night from long range for the Razorbacks, shoting 5-of-10 from behind the arc for 22 points, and Beverly shot poorly – again – but still managed 19 points and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the season (and second in a row). Despite the 20-point win, Arkansas only shot 36.1% from the floor and let MSU shoot 40.8%. Gordon brought down 24 points for the third time in four games for State, shooting 8-of-16 but turning the ball over 6 times. Charles Rhodes claimed his eleventh-career double-double with 11 points and 15 rebounds.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win was more prevention than advantage, as the ‘Backs avoided falling three games back to MSU in the West and remain squarely in the division’s grasp, just one game back and 10 games to go.
Impact [Miss. State]: An expected loss, the result of this game will mean little long-term. However, will MSU’s biggest defeat of the season be a morale-crusher or motivator? We’ll soon see Saturday in State’s home game versus #6 Tennessee.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ +11 turnover margin

Saturday Odds

(11-7, 2-3) Georgia [#114] vs. (9-9, 3-2) Kentucky [#138]
Spread: Georgia by 1.5
Pick: Georgia – Georgia beat Arkansas by 13 at home, and Arkansas is clearly a better team than the Wildcats at this point.
—Keys: Look for this to be a low-scoring game. Whoever between Ramel Bradley and Sundiata Gaines can hit 20 should carry their team to the “W”.

(12-9, 1-5) Alabama [#100] vs. (8-12, 1-5) LSU [#189]
Spread: Alabama by 9.5
Pick: Alabama – LSU’s winning “streak” will be a short one, as the Tide’s talent and size will be far too much for LSU.
—Keys: Thornton and Randolph. Those two should be double-teamed every time they touch the ball, because they’re LSU’s only offense.

(15-5, 4-2) Arkansas [#41] vs. (18-3, 5-1) Florida [#43]
Spread: Arkansas by 4
Pick: Arkansas – As talented as Florida may be, they do not play enough defense to keep a road game like this close.
—Keys: If Arkansas can find their offense against Florida’s porous defense, this could be a blowout.

(17-4, 2-4) #23 Vanderbilt [#13] vs. (12-7, 2-4) Auburn [#150]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 11.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – Auburn has noone to guard Foster or Ogilvy. This one will be ugly.
—Keys: Auburn will need to shoot well over 50% if they hope to pull this one out.

(16-3, 3-3) #19 Ole Miss [#11] vs. (10-10, 2-4) South Carolina [#125]
Spread: Ole Miss by 10.5
Pick: Ole Miss – The Rebels have been playing well at home.
—Keys: This has the potential to be a very high-scoring game, with Ole Miss’ high tempo and USC’s three-point shooting.

(14-6, 5-1) Mississippi State [#56] vs. (18-2, 5-1) #7 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Even
Pick: Tennessee – The matchup seems to favor the Vols.
—Keys: The Vols’ high-pressure trap defense should force a lot of MSU turnovers. If the officials are calling a loose game, that would exagerate State’s problem. This is an interesting matchup of offense vs. defense.

Tuesday game…

Overall: 115-23 (83.3%)
Vs. Spread: 49-38 (56.3%)
Overall (SEC): 22-5 (81.5%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 16-11 (59.3%)
East vs. West: East, 8-3

(12-9, 1-5) Alabama [86] vs. (18-2, 5-1) #3 Tennessee [93]: Tennessee hit every clutch free throw, every big-time three, and forced 20 ‘Bama turnovers (despite 23 of their own) to pull away in the end of this game. Alabama managed to force their own tempo in the first half, which ended tied 33-33. However, the Vols pushed the ball up and down court in the second half, which favored their much more athletic team by a great deal. Each team seemed to have two stars who made big plays, those being Lofton and Jujuan Smith for the Vols and Gee and Hendrix for the Tide. Lofton recorded his second-straight impressive outing, shooting 5-of-9 from behind the arc for 23 points while Jujuan Smith hit 8-of-13 from the floor for 22. Tyler Smith also had a big game, bringing down 17 points and 11 rebounds for his third double-double as a Volunteer. Alonzo Gee was spectacular in the loss, hitting 10-of-17 from the floor, 9 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Hendrix simply couldn’t break the Vols interior defense to handle the ball enough without turning the ball over, but still shot 9-of-12 from the floor and claimed his 11th double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are very nearly out of the race for the West, even with an undefeated record from here on. A 7-5 or 8-4 record here on out will be necessary to be in contention for an NIT bid.
Impact [Tennessee]: Winning tough road games is always a boost long-term, but that all-too familiar “hangover” effect could linger, and the Vols don’t have time for that as they now travel to one of their main competitors for the SEC title: Mississippi State. The Vols will need to stay focused on the road.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s impressive +9 rebound advantage

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 114-23 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 48-38 (55.8%)
Overall (SEC): 21-5 (80.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 15-11 (57.7%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(12-8, 1-4) Alabama [#94] vs. (17-2, 4-1) #3 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 4
Pick: Tennessee – Although this should be a surprisingly competitive game, the Vols should cover four points.
—Keys: The Tide play a physical game which could put the Vols on their heels while on the road. If this is a close game, the game will favor Tennessee, as Alabama shoots a league-worst 59.2% from the charity stripe.

Saturday games, Sunday odds…

Overall: 113-23 (83.1%)
Vs. Spread: 47-38 (55.3%)
Overall (SEC): 20-5 (80.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 14-11 (56.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(9-9, 3-2) Kentucky [78] vs. (9-10, 1-4) South Carolina [70]: Ramel Bradley recorded his first double-double of the season in this win with 26 points and 10 rebounds. The Wildcats heavily outshot and outrebounded the Gamecocks, but turned the ball over 7 more times and allowed USC to attempt 14 more shots, explaining the close score. Patrick Patterson shook off his slow start to the SEC season in the form of 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks. South Carolina was wildly unidimensional as Downey, Fredrick, and Archie combined for 71% of USC’s attempts from the floor. Downey dominated the Gamecocks’ stats, scoring 24 points on 10-of-20 shooting and dishing out 7 assists to only 2 turnovers.
Impact [Kentucky]: The win keeps up the small amount of momentum the Wildcats have managed, and puts them on the good side of .500 in SEC play. However, Kentucky will need at least an 8-3 mark in the remaining regular-season games and a win or two in the conference tournament to even be considered for the NCAA’s.
Impact [South Carolina]: The NIT seems to be the main realistic goal for the Gamecocks, and this loss won’t set them back far from that goal. However, a huge run in a tough division will be required to be in contention.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 23 free throws attempted versus USC’s 3

(12-8, 1-4) Alabama [97] vs. (12-6, 2-3) Auburn [77]: In what would be the Tide’s most efficient offensive outing of the season, five Tide members recorded at least 16 points. The statistics of this blowout are surprisingly similar for each of the teams, except for Alabama attempting many more shots due to only turning the ball over 4 times and forcing 15 Auburn turnovers. Richard Hendrix hit 8-of-11 shots to lead all ‘Bama players with 20 points and 8 rebounds, while Jemison, Riley, and Gee each brought down 7 rebounds. Hollinger had his stroke going, shooting 6-of-9 from long range. Prowell and Barrett provided 42 of the Tigers’ points on a combined 15-of-24 shooting effort, though only one other Auburn member scored as many as 10.
Impact [Alabama]: If the Tide hopes to see any postseason play, this game must serve as a turnaround point in intensity for players such as Hollinger, Pickett, and Hillman. If Alabama is looking to challenge for the Western Division, losing too many more games isn’t an option.
Impact [Auburn]: Losing to your rival by 20 always hurts momentum. After getting LSU at home, the Tigers go on a brutal stretch that will literally define their season – a win over LSU will be a must.
Stat of the Game: Alabama attempting 15 more shots than Auburn

(14-5, 5-0) Mississippi State [88] vs. (15-3, 2-3) #15 Ole Miss [68]: In the surprise of the weekend, the Bulldogs manhandled the visiting Rebels. The Rebels are young and playing on the road and MSU has an enormous amount of momentum – it was a recipe for a blowout. After suffering an ankle injury a week or two ago, senior Charles Rhodes matched his career high in the game with 26 points on an impressive 12-of-14 shooting performance and grabbed six rebounds. Gordon claimed a mere 13 points but dished out 6 assists while turning the ball over only 1 time. Freshmen Riley Benock and Elgin Bailey each set new season highs with 12 and 8 points respectively, Benock hitting 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. Curtis was the only bright spot for the Rebels, as he hit 7-of-11 shots for 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season. Freshman phenom Chris Warren managed 15 points but shot 5-of-20 from the field, including 2-of-10 from long range. Despite attempting 16 more shots, the Rebels uncharacteristically shot very poorly in the game – as most teams have against MSU.
Impact [Miss. State]: One down, two to go. With all the momentum, now the Bulldogs travel to Fayetteville to face Arkansas followed by a home bout with #3 Tennessee. With attention growing on a nationa scale, how will MSU react with a conference title potentially on the line?
Impact [Ole Miss]: After suffering what was easily their worst loss of the season, the Rebels have no time to linger as #16 Vanderbilt comes to town. With such a young team, this loss could sting. The Rebels are still in the thick of things in the West, but MSU at home will be a must-win.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s 56.7% to 36.8% shooting advantage

(17-2, 4-1) #3 Tennessee [85] vs. (11-6, 2-2) Georgia [69]: Chris Lofton has finally done it. He’s finally had a big game and his team actually won. Lofton brought down 27 points on 9-of-17 shooting, including 7-of-13 from three. Tyler Smith was the only other Vol in double figures, scoring 17 on 7-of-9 shooting, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists (but 7 turnovers). Georgia’s three-point reliance proved their downfall, as they shot well from the field but only 4-of-22 (18.2%) from long range. Gaines still had a good game, notching 20 points on 9-of-17 shooting, while Bliss and Humphrey had 15 points apiece. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, no other player managed more than 6.
Impact [Tennessee]: This game serves as a warm-up before road trips to Alabama and Mississppi State. The @ MSU game could end up having overall SEC title implications.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little – the Bulldogs can still compete for a postseason bid if they can muster some wins on the road, but can’t lose many more if they expect to compete for the East.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 26 assists to Georgia’s 11

(7-12, 0-5) LSU [52] vs. (14-5, 3-2) Arkansas [68]: This game truly was about who wanted to lose more. After building a substantial lead, the Razorbacks let the Tigers storm back and compete before the ‘Backs would put them away into the second half. Neither team shot particularly well, although Arkansas was on fire from three, hitting 10-of-15 (66.7%) shots from beyond the arc. Beverly has apparently decided to make up for his slumping shooting with his rebounding numbers, as he grabbed a game-high 15 in this game along with 14 points for his second double-double of the season. Weems hit a perfect 5-of-5 from three to score a game-high 21 points and 7 rebounds. Only three Tigers scored more than 2 points, while Thornton led those with 20 points on 7-of-20 shooting.
Impact [LSU]: At this point, the Tigers should be focusing on saving face, as the postseason is out of contention without a miracle run in the conference tournament.
Impact [Arkansas]: The road win should help confidence on the road, and the ‘Backs will need it if they expect to compete for the division. The next game will be Mississippi State at home, which should be a win to build from for both teams.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 19.2% three-point shooting

Sunday Odds

(17-3, 4-1) Florida [#54] vs. (17-2, 2-2) #16 Vanderbilt [#11]
Spread: Florida by 5
Pick: Florida – Both teams play well offensively, and a matchup of similar styles often favors the home team.

Conference Report

With March quickly approaching, I thought this as good a time as any to break down each team in the conference, their remaining games, and their postseason outlook.

ALABAMA (11-8, 0-4)

Analysis: The Crimson Tide’s slow start to SEC play is due in large part to a lack of a third scoring option. Hendrix is still my pick for the best overall player in the SEC, averaging 19.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, and Gee is talented but often too out of control (1.2 assists to 2.1 turnovers per game). Gee’s main problem can’t be seen on the stat sheet, which is fundamentally poor decision-making – the guy is selfish. If the ball is in his hand, he’s going to shoot it one way or another and this is taking its toll on the rest of the team. Riley has spurts of hot shooting and has proven to be a threat from beyond the arc (42.4%) and yet he’s only averaging 13.1 points per game.

Gameplan: Limit Gee’s possessions and increase Riley’s by double, keeping Hendrix as the main anchor for the team. The plan should be to get the ball to Hendrix down low every time, with a kickout to Riley when the defense collapses. Utilize Gee on fastbreaks and when a lane opens up.

Schedule

vs. Auburn (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)

Prediction: (15-16, 4-12)

Postseason: The Tide would need to make the finals of the SEC tournament to make the NIT (2 or 3 seed), and only a win would grant them an NCAA bid (albeit as a 9 or 10 seed).

AUBURN (12-5, 2-2)

Analysis: Honestly, there’s no reason for Auburn not to compete this season. The Tigers’ efficiencies (both offensive and defensive) are miserable despite an experienced squad that was one W away from a Western Division title a year ago. The team can find offense occasionally (see; vs. Ole Miss) and are one of the best in the conference at forcing turnovers, but the lack of size hurts rebounding and their reliance on a three-ball that they do not shoot well limits any momentum they may find.

Gameplan: Use the team’s speed to your advantage – trap more. Slow down the opponents’ offense and make them work to score. The Tigers also need to create an offensive scheme that opens up Barber or Prowell in the paint, as Auburn’s field goal percentage is one of the best in the conference despite ranking 10th in three-point shooting. Barrett is taking entirely too many threes to only be hitting 32.9% of them.

Schedule

@ Alabama (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
vs. Miss. State (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
@ Arkansas (L)

Prediction: (16-13, 6-10)

Postseason: The Tigers would need to win in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the SEC Tournament to hope for an NIT bid (as a 4 or 5 seed), and winning the conference tournament would be the only vessel to the NCAA’s (as a 9 or 10 seed).

ARKANSAS (13-5, 2-2)

Analysis: Although sound defensively, the days are over in which this team could simply ride on the shoulders of hot shooting by Patrick Beverly. Beverly has slowed down a bit, hitting only 40.6% from the field and 36.5% from behind the arc. Not bad, mind you, but that’s not going to be enough to supply the entire team with offense. Beverly is also posting alarmingly high numbers of rebounds (5.9 per game), and when a shot guard is focusing that heavily on rebounding the ball it serves to purpose that his shot will be off. Although noone has really proven to be a three-point threat out of this team, Weems has stepped up with high percentages from the floor and leads the team in scoring (13.5ppg) although he tends to turn the ball over (3.4 per game).

Gameplan: The Razorbacks need to be focusing more heavily on an inside game offensively, as the guards are not as consistent as they need to be from beyond the arc. Townes, Thomas, and Washington are more than enough down low to rely on to score, with an occasional kickout to Beverly or drive by Weems. Although Hill isn’t nearly aggressive or nimble enough with the ball offensively, he’s a pretty consistent shooter from the paint – don’t be afraid to have him on the floor because not many in the conference can get to the basket with him down low.

Schedule

@ LSU (W)
vs. Miss. State (W)
vs. Florida (W)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (W)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. Auburn (W)

Prediction: (19-13, 8-8)

Postseason: With an already-decent RPI, the Razorbacks would be squarely on the bad side of the NCAA bubble with a one-and-done in the SEC tournament. A win would put them on the good side, and two would solidify their bid as a low seed (9-10).

FLORIDA (17-3, 4-1)

Analysis: As young and talented as the Gators are, they play little defense. At home the hot shooting could be enough, but Florida will need to find some “D” if they hope to seriously compete in the East with Tennessee and Vanderbilt (and Kentucky?). So far, the team’s only conference loss was a two-point loss on the road to #15 Ole Miss – not bad at all. The Gators share the ball well and are towards the top of most statistical categories – but, much of that was against far, far weaker competition. Nick Calathes, possible front-runner for SEC Freshman of the Year, is the spark plug for this year’s UF team, recording 16.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists to only 2.8 turnovers so far this season. Impressive – especially for a freshman. Speights has been the other go-to guy, all of his coming from the paint where he averages 64.4% from the field along with 7.8 rebounds.

Gameplan: Focus on defense. The Gators need to harass their opponents more (dead last in the conference in steals per game) and keep shooting well. Remember, defense creates offense.

Schedule

vs. #16 Vanderbilt (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. LSU (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Georgia (W)
vs. Miss. State (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (W)
@ Kentucky (L)

Prediction: (23-8, 10-6)

Postseason: This record should easily put the Gators into the NCAA’s. Each win in the SEC tournament would equate to about one seed in the NCAA tournament, starting out at an 8 or 7 seed.

GEORGIA (11-5, 2-1)

Analyis: The Bulldogs’ defense has been solid, but the team doesn’t have the depth to create any offense. The squad is near the bottom in all percentage categories, and dead last in assist-to-turnover ratio. Noone outside of Humphrey can find any stroke, as Humphrey is hitting 43.7% from the floor and 41.6% from long range. Humphrey, of course, leads the team with 14.1 points per contest and Gaines follows that up with 12.8 points, although he’s taking too many threes (second-most on the team and hitting only 27.1%). Price is the offensive inside man and Bliss is the defensive, as Price scores 9.6 points per outing and Bliss grabs 4.6 rebounds and has a decent amount of blocks as well.

Gameplan: Give Humphrey more touches. The guy plays hard and he’s accurate – use him to extend the defense and give Price looks on the inside. Keep up the hard-nosed defense and take better care of the ball.

Schedule

@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Kentucky (W)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Florida (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)

Prediction: (14-15, 5-11)

Postseason: The Bulldogs would need to make the finals of the SEC tournament for a 4 or 5 seed in the NIT, and win it to make a 9 or 10 seed in the NCAA’s.

KENTUCKY (8-9, 2-2)

Analysis: As statistically-oriented as I may be, I can still see the Wildcats’ main problem – chemistry. New faces, injuries, and a new coach has equated to an early-season stumbling, but Kentucky has looked much more competitive as of late in wins against #3 Tennessee and #16 Vanderbilt, along with hard-fought road losses to Mississippi State and Florida. Kentucky’s main problem comes from a lack of experienced depth on offense. The ‘Cats play tight defense but noone outside of Bradley and Crawford can score with any consistency from the guard position. Meeks has a game here and there, but there’s a black hole in the roster beyond that. Patterson has been an amazing presence inside as a freshman, leading the team with 16.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game along with shooting 57.8% from the field. If this guy stays all four years, he will be another Richard Hendrix.

Gameplan: Regardless of how difficult this may be to do, find another reliable scoring option. Meeks needs to step up now that he’s returned and become the threat that he has the potential to be. The bench (Jasper, Stevenson, Harris, Porter, Coury) all need to work on their chemistry with each other and running offensive sets. I’d try starting Stevenson alongside Patterson to see if a 3-2 lineup would limit some of the glaring holes in talented guard depth facing the Wildcats.

Schedule

vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Georgia (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Prediction: (16-13, 10-6)

Postseason: Despite going 10-6 in the conference, the Wildcats would need at least two wins in the SEC tournament to even be considered for the NCAA tournament. Kentucky is set for a unique problem – it seems to be NCAA or bust. With an overall record of 16-13, it does not seem as if the NIT would opt for the Wildcats – but if the ‘Cats can get into contention for an NIT bid, they would also be in contention for an NCAA bid because of their quality in-conference record. One win would be a very low seed in the NIT (6 or 7), two wins would be a 10 seed in the NCAA’s, making the finals would be a 8 or 9 seed, and winning the SEC tournament would likely hand the ‘Cats a 7 or 8 seed.

LSU (7-11, 0-4)

Analysis: The Tigers aren’t doing much of anything well. Their defense isn’t horrible, but their offense is the worst the SEC has seen in quite some time. Despite some big names (Randolph, Temple, Mitchell, Martin), LSU has surprisingly little depth and are simply not executing. Thornton has been everything offensively for LSU, recording an average of 18.7 points per game, but taking 15.5 shots per game and only hitting 41.2%. Randolph has a higher 46.5 percentage and blocks a league-second 2.4 shots per game, along with collecting 8.6 rebounds per contest. Center Chris Johnson seems to be a hidden star, as he shoots 62.1% and grabs 4.8 rebounds in only 27.3 minutes, yet he’s only played in 13 games this season.

Gameplan: Develop the bench and limit Thornton. He’s talented, but the scoring attack needs to be more balanced than any one player attempting 15.5 shots per game. Play Johnson more, get him the ball, and get Martin, Temple, and Mitchell more playing time.

Schedule

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Auburn (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Florida (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (L)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Miss. State (L)

Prediction: I know it’s extreme, but I can’t see a W in the remaining schedule. (7-23, 0-16)

Postseason: None, outside of a miracle win of the SEC tournament, in which case the Tigers would still get a 12-16 seed.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (13-5, 4-0)

Analysis: MSU has turned up the defensive heat lately and as a result remains the only undefeated team in SEC play. Jamont Gordon will be in the argument for SEC Player of the Year with his 17.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game and Jarvis Varnado will be in the mix for All-SEC First Team as he easily leads the nation in blocks per game (5.2). Varnado, or “Swat”, seems to alter even more shots than he blocks, as opponents’ inside games (with the exception of Alabama’s Hendrix) have crumbled under him as he also ranks second in the conference with 8.7 rebounds per game (behind – you guessed it, Hendrix). MSU ranks 2nd in the nation in blocks per game and field-goal percentage defense. The team’s glaring weakness seems to be free throw shooting, as the team ranks 11th out of 12 with an abysmal average of 59.8%. Also, the Bulldogs take too many threes (385) due to their 33.2% team average from long range.

Gameplan: Maximize Varnado’s playing time (only averaging 25.9 minutes per game – imagine if he played 35) and limit the threes. Take more time offensively to get the ball to the post or open a lane for Gordon. And hit. free. throws. No excuse for making less than 70%, much less 60%.

Schedule

vs. #15 Ole Miss (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. #3 Tennessee (W)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Prediction: (21-9, 12-4)

Postseason: This record should easily hand MSU an NCAA bid. In the SEC tournament…No wins (8 seed), One win (7 seed), Two wins (5 seed), Overall win (4 seed).

#15 OLE MISS (15-2, 2-2)

Analysis: The Rebels characteristically have not been able to pull out games on the road due to their youth. Still a very well-coached and talented team, the Rebels are one of (if not the single) most efficient offensive teams in the conference, but the defense is lacking – another trait of young teams. The Rebels rebound surprisingly well for their youth and shoot well, but will not match up well against the defensive teams in the West such as Arkansas and Mississippi State. Chris Warren looks to compete for the title of SEC Freshman of the Year as he leads the team with an average of 15.9 points per game along with 5.3 assists to only 2.8 turnovers. The other offensive anchor is Dwayne Curtis, who’s inside skills bring him 15.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game along with averaging a league-leading 68.7% from the field. Other contributors such as Polynice, Huertas, and Williams all have potential to have a big game.

Gameplan: As good as he is, Warren is taking too many shots and Curtis, who leads the conference in field goal percentage, is only taking 8.6 per game. Swap the two’s attempts and leave Curtis out on the floor more. Get Williams more playing time, as he has tremendous potential, averaging 8.1 rebounds in only 25 minutes.

Schedule

@ Miss. State (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. Presbyterian (W)
@ Alabama (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
vs. Miss. State (W)
@ LSU (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Georgia (W)

Prediction: (25-5, 11-5)

Postseason: An NCAA bid should be a given, and depending on the SEC tournament results…No wins (7 seed), One win (6 seed), Two wins (4 seed), Overall win (3 seed).

SOUTH CAROLINA (9-9, 1-3)

Analysis: The Gamecocks shoot the three well, but are on the low side of mediocre in nearly everything else. With that said, the team’s lone conference win was a road win at Arkansas, a tough place to play, so the team has proven it can get hot. Three-point shooting teams are never out of any game. Downey is bolstering his First-Team All-SEC credentials by averaging 19.9 points and 5.0 assists per game, and Fredrick posts 16.1 points per game. The team’s best three-point shooter, Raley-Ross (61.2%) only attempts 3.1 threes per game. Rebounding is a weakness, also, as is depth.

Gameplan: Get Raley-Ross more playing time and encourage him to take more threes. Because of the guard-heavy lineup of the talent, the Gamecocks should focus on three-point sets in practice and build on their asset.

Schedule

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. #16 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Georgia (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
@ Florida (L)
vs. Miss. State (L)
vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #3 Tennessee (L)

Prediction: (12-18, 4-12)

Postseason: The Gamecocks would have to win the SEC tournament to receive a 10-15 seed in the NCAA tournament.

#3 TENNESSEE (16-2, 3-1)

Analysis: Although the Vols lead the league in three-pointers made per contest, the squad surprisingly ranks only 6th out of 12 in percentage behind the arc. That in and of itself suggests less reliance on the three-ball. With that said, it’s tough to improve on 16-2. Preseason All-American Chris Lofton has fizzled, shooting only 34.8% from behind the arc and 35.6% from the floor to average 13.8 points due to leading the team in attempts. Although it’s understandable to expect him to light up again, it’s time to hand the reigns over to Howell, who is an unsung star off the bench hitting 42.3% of his 3.9 attempts per game in 19.8 minutes. JaJuan Smith leads the Vols with 14.4 points per game along with a good 2.5:1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. Iowa transfer Tyler Smith anchors the inside game with 12.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, although he actually leads the team with 3.4 assists per game – an aspect of the game most big men are not particularly adept at. I suppose it’s easier when you’re surrounded by shooters.

Gameplan: Lofton needs to limit his shots and hand some of them over to Howell. Leading the conference in steals per game, the team needs to actually play some on-ball defense in a half-court setting as well if they hope to make a long run into the NCAA’s.

Schedule

vs. Georgia (W)
@ Alabama (W)
@ Miss. State (L)
vs. Florida (W)
@ LSU (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Georgia (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ #1 Memphis (W)
@ #16 Vanderbilt (W)
vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Prediction: (26-4, 13-3)

Postseason: An NCAA bid is obvious here. Anything less than making the SEC Tournament finals will result in a 2 seed, and a tournament final should hand them a top seed, with a conference tournament win a possibility for the #1 overall seed.

#16 VANDERBILT (17-2, 2-2)

Analysis: The Commodores are a story of polar opposites. The team executes the most efficient offense in the SEC, but their defense is nearly non-existent. Whereas Tennessee plays little half-court defense but does press, Vandy does not. Shan Foster has a great argument for SEC Player of the Year with his 20.1 points and 4.9 rebounds per game along with a 51.2% shooting percentage, including 48.1 from behind the arc to easily lead the conference. Ogilvy is a lock for SEC All-Freshman team as he averages 18.5 points and 6.8 rebounds, although his production has lessened as he’s entered SEC play.

Gameplan: Extend the defense and employ at least a half-court trap (preferrably a full) the majority of the time. Rely less on Ogilvy to score now that SEC play is in full swing and involve Neltner or Metcalfe a bit more. Keep up the impressive offensive production.

Schedule

@ Florida (L)
@ #15 Ole Miss (L)
vs. Auburn (W)
@ Georgia (W)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Kentucky (W)
vs. Florida (W)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. #3 Tennessee (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
vs. Miss. State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Prediction: (25-6, 10-6)

Postseason: Another automatic NCAA bid, with the SEC tournament: No wins (6 seed), One win (5 seed), Two wins (4 seed), Overall win (3 seed)

Hope you enjoy, comments are appreciated.

Saturday odds…

Overall: 108-23 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 43-37 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 15-5 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 10-10 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(8-9, 2-2) Kentucky [#143] vs. (9-9, 1-3) South Carolina [#109]
Spread: Kentucky by 7.5
Pick: Kentucky – The Wildcats seem to be improving drastically, although the Gamecocks are more competitive recently as well.
—Keys: If the Wildcat guards can continue their recent offensive performance, the team’s defense should be able to contain USC. Look for Bradley and Crawford’s performances to determine Kentucky’s success.

(11-8, 0-4) Alabama [#113] vs. (12-5, 2-2) Auburn [#128]
Spread: Alabama by 10.5
Pick: Auburn – The Tigers are a very experienced squad, and thus the “road factor” should be at a minimum. The Tide are floundering, but should be able to pull out a close home win.
—Keys: Watch for the turnovers. Alabama is somewhat susceptible to turning the ball over and the Tigers force a ton of them. If the Tigers stay hot from the field and force a high number of turnovers, they have a chance of winning the game.

(13-5, 4-0) Mississippi State [#73] vs. (15-2, 2-2) #15 Ole Miss [#12]
Spread: Miss. State by 5.5
Pick: Mississippi State – The Rebels aren’t playing well on the road thus far in the SEC, and MSU is one of the hottest teams in the conference.
—Keys: According to the Wirth Value, this game matches up the SEC’s #2 offense against the #1 defense. Usually in these radical opposites, the home team wins the battle. Look for the Curtis/Varnado matchup to define the outcome.

(16-2, 3-1) #3 Tennessee [#1] vs. (11-5, 2-1) Georgia [#121]
Spread: Tennessee by 13.5
Pick: Tennessee – The Bulldogs don’t have the talent or depth to keep this one close.
—Keys: Georgia will need to defend the three well to have a chance in this game.

(7-11, 0-4) LSU [#201] vs. (13-5, 2-2) Arkansas [#41]
Spread: Arkansas by 4.5
Pick: Arkansas – Although the Razorbacks tend to choke on the road (see; Auburn), LSU is simply awful.
—Keys: Will the Tigers be able to find any offense against the SEC’s #2 defense?

Saturday games…

Overall: 106-22 (82.8%)
Vs. Spread: 42-36 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 14-4 (77.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 9-9 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(17-2, 2-2) #17 Vanderbilt [92] vs. (7-11, 0-4) LSU [76]: Junior Marcus Thornton scored his third 27-point game of the season and freshman Anthony Randolph pulled down a career-high 19 rebounds and 14 points for his fourth double-double of the season while LSU outrebounded the Commodores 36-29 and yet Vanderbilt destroyed the Tigers by 16 points. Efficient ball-handling and hot shooting was key, although the Tigers were still allowed to shoot 47.5% from the field. Five ‘Dores scored in double digits, led by Foster and Gordon who had 18 apiece on a combined 12-of-27 shooting effort and sophomore Jermaine Beal had an impressive 9 assists to no turnovers. AJ Ogilvy had his second consecutive mediocre game with 10 points on 2-of-6 shooting, 3 rebounds and 3 turnovers.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores end a two-game slide with the win after winning 17-straight games to begin the season. Vanderbilt will need some help from Tennessee in order to get back into the race for the Eastern title.
Impact [LSU]: At this point, the Tigers are looking towards next season. The question will be, can LSU pull off a title-altering upset at some point this season?
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 21-to-7 (3:1) assist-to-turnover ratio

(11-8, 0-4) Alabama [56] vs. (13-5, 4-0) Mississippi State [66]: The Bulldogs finally found their stroke from behind the arc and hit each of them in timely fashion, leading this game throughout by matching every Tide run. Despite Varnado’s lackluster performance on the inside, MSU still held Alabama to just 56 points – 21 of them coming from Hendrix, despite his attempting only 10 shots. Alabama’s big man turned the ball over 7 times, however. Gee managed only 10 on 2-of-9 shooting. Gordon brought down a game-high 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting while Stewart hit 3-of-5 from behind the arc to record 16.
Impact [Alabama]: This game was the Tide’s last chance to rebound from three-straight losses, as the NCAA’s are most certainly out of reach at this point. Alabama’s situation is only different from LSU’s in one way – the Tide are much more likely to upset a team or two this season.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs are on a serious run, but have three signature games coming up with Ole Miss and Tennessee coming to town and a trip to Arkansas mixed in between. If MSU can manage a 2-1 mark in that span, the Western Division looks like a good bet. 3-0 would put State in the upper echelon with Tennessee for the overall championship.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s 46.2% shooting from behind the arc vs. Alabama’s 14.3%

(16-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [74] vs. (12-6, 3-2) Ohio State [69]: The Vols defeated the Buckeyes in the same fashion they’ve defeated every team this season, with good shooting and taking care of the ball. Two Buckeyes recorded double-doubles, as freshman Evan Turner claimed 21 points and 10 rebounds for the first of his career and senior Othello Hunter grabbed 17 points and 14 rebounds for the second of his season. Balanced scoring was again key for Tennessee, as four Vols scored in double figures but none with more than 15. Lofton had a not-so-terrible game, shooting 4-of-10 from three to score 13.
Impact [Tennesse]: With the last non-conference opponent out of the way, the Volunteers look unstoppable on thier march towards a top seed in the tournament.
Stat of the Game: Ohio State’s 2-of-20 (10.0%) shooting from behind the arc

(11-5, 2-2) Auburn [80] vs. (15-2, 2-2) Ole Miss [77]: Hot shooting allowed the Tigers a tremendous upset of the Rebels, despite being outrebounded heavily. The Tigers shot 47.4% from the field and even better from behind the arc, as senior Frank Tolbert had the biggest game of his season with 29 points on 9-of-11 shooting from the field and 5 rebounds. Reed also notched a season high with 21 points, along with 6 assists. Prowell added 12 rebounds. Warren had another huge game for the Rebels with 25 points on 9-of-20 shooting…7-of-14 of those from behind the arc…and Curtis recorded the eighth double-double of his season.
Impact [Auburn]: This win should inject a much-needed dose of life into the Tigers, as they remain in the battle for the Western division title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are now on their heels, and will now need to do what young players don’t do well – rebound from a tough stretch of losses.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 10-of-19 (52.6%) shooting from three

(11-5, 2-1) Georgia [82] vs. (13-5, 2-2) Arkansas [69]: The Razorbacks are showing signs of their previous road-choking selves, as Pelphrey’s squad was simply not the more physical team against the Bulldogs and couldn’t hit anything from behind the arc (although, that is usual) and the ‘Dawgs were unstoppable from long range. Georgia also outrebounded Arkansas and won the turnover war. Four Bulldogs scored in double digits, led by junior Billy Humphrey’s 24 points on 4-of-6 from long range, also including Gaines and Price with 14 apiece and Woodbury with 12. Charles Thomas and Sonny Weems were the only ‘Backs in double digits with 13 and 12 points respectively, as together the two had 8 turnovers and normally-outstanding sophomore Beverly had an “off” game shooting “only” 3-of-7 from the field for 9 points.
Impact [Georgia]: The win certainly gives the Bulldogs a pulse in the conference. Although Felton’s squad can’t realistically hope to compete with Tennessee in the East, a small run could put the NCAA’s within reach.
Impact [Arkansas]: Arkansas, the previous favorite in the West, has now lost 2-straight games to “lesser” opponents. After a trip to LSU, the Razorbacks won’t have long to rebound in an absolutely nasty five-game stretch including both Mississippi State games, a trip to Tennessee, and home games against Ole Miss and Florida. If the ‘Backs can’t reverse this momentum and manage a sub-.500 mark in those five games, the squad could begin losing sight of the Western division title.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 11-to-17 assist-to-turnover ratio

(16-3, 3-1) Florida [81] vs. (7-9, 1-2) Kentucky [70]: The Wildcats are proving they have some fight left in them…in their losses. The Gators needed overtime to defeat the visiting ‘Cats, and Kentucky slips to their worst record in quite some time. Two Gators scored 20 points or more, as Calathes and Speights combined for 44 points and 16 rebounds on a combined 13-of-23 shooting effort from the floor. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this team will challenge for a national title in the next year or two. Ramel Bradley carried the Wildcat offense, bringing down 23 points on 8-of-16 shooting, while Crawford and Patterson scored 16 and 15 points respectively. The rest of the Kentucky team combined for 16 points total. This team is struggling mightily with their lack of depth.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are still on track to challenge Tennessee in the East if the Vols will stumble, but road games will prove vital for the young squad.
Impact [Kentucky]: If the Wildcats want to make any noise in the conference, the time is now. This game proved Kentucky can play quality competition on the road, but these type of games are becoming necessary “W”s for the ‘Cats.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s ever-potent offense: 48.0% shooting from the floor

Saturday odds…

Overall: 102-20 (83.6%)
Vs. Spread: 39-33 (54.2%)
Overall (SEC): 11-2 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 6-7 (46.2%)
East vs. West: East, 5-3

(16-2, 1-2) #17 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (7-10, 0-3) LSU [#185]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 12.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Tigers have been blown out at home by 20+ points, the Commodores should handle this game very easily.
—Keys: Look for the ‘Dores to find their touch from the arc again.

(11-7, 0-3) Alabama [#102] vs. (12-5, 3-0) Mississippi State [#85]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Mississippi State – Although the road is a tough place to play, the Bulldogs almost beat ‘Bama at home last season and have the momentum to pull the upset.
—Keys: While the Tide are looking to save their chances at a postseason appearance, the Bulldogs are trying to establish themselves at the top of the West. Will the ‘Dawgs be able to win on the road, and will the three-straight losses be the beginning of a downward spiral for Alabama? This is a vital matchup in the West.

(15-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [#1] vs. (12-5, 3-2) Ohio State [#24]
Spread: Tennessee by 9
Pick: Tennessee – The Vols will be prepared and Ohio State is too young to play well against the Vols on the road.
—Keys: A win over Ohio State will help the Vols’ argument for a top seed come March if all goes as planned.

(10-5, 1-2) Auburn [#149] vs. (15-1, 2-1) Ole Miss [#14]
Spread: Ole Miss by 7.5
Pick: Ole Miss – Although the Tigers played Arkansas well at home, the Rebels are very efficient and should light up the nets in Auburn.
—Keys: Can Auburn find enough offense to keep up with the ‘Backs?

(10-5, 1-1) Georgia [#157] vs. (13-4, 2-1) Arkansas [#37]
Spread: Arkansas by 1
Pick: Arkansas – The Bulldogs have momentum, but the Razorbacks are much more talented.
—Keys: Will the Bulldogs play off of the momentum from the Alabama win? If the Dawgs can find a way to slow down Arkansas’ inside game, they have a real chance in this game.

(15-3, 2-1) Florida [#71] vs. (7-8, 1-1) Kentucky [#179]
Spread: Florida by 8
Pick: Florida – The Gators are young and should take care of the Wildcats at home.
—Keys: The Wilcats desperately need a win as the Gators look to establish themselves in the Eastern Division.

Wednesday and Thursday games…

Overall: 102-20 (83.6%)
Vs. Spread: 39-33 (54.2%)
Overall (SEC): 11-2 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 6-7 (46.2%)
East vs. West: East, 5-3

(10-5, 1-1) Georgia [61] vs. (11-7, 0-3) Alabama [49]: The Tide spread themselves too thin due to foul trouble for Hendrix, and thus the Bulldogs ran away with the win. While Alabama shot somewhat better from the field, the hoop seemed to shrink outside of the arc, as UA shot only 3-of-20 from long-range. Humphrey and Price led UGA in scoring with 13 and 11 apiece, although seven others had at least three. Hendrix paced all scorers with 19 and 10 rebounds for his fourth-straight double-double, but Gee only managed 5 points on 2-of-9 shooting and seven rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: This should provide a nice boost in the standings for the Bulldogs, as they are now tied with Vanderbilt and Kentucky for third place in the East, keeping them in the race.
Impact [Alabama]: The dreaded hangover game struck again, and the Tide has now lost three-straight headed towards Saturday’s matchup against a hot MSU team. If UA doesn’t get something going against the Bulldogs, the Tiders may be looking at a sub .500 team on the year.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 3-of-20 shooting from behind the arc – the sign of a desperate and confused offense

(7-10, 0-3) LSU [67] vs. (10-5, 1-2) Auburn [74]: Auburn simply outshot LSU in this one, as the Swamp Tigers consistently awful three-point shooting bit them hard. You’d think that if you’re not hitting them, you’d stop shooting as many, but Brady’s team attempted 24 threes and made only 7. Both teams have problems with depth, although it was most apparent with LSU, with players outside of Thornton, Temple, and Randolph accounting for a combined total of 11 points. Thornton did, however, have the biggest game of his short career with 27 points and 6 rebounds. Reed led Auburn with 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting while Tolbert claimed 9 rebounds to go along with his 16 points.
Impact [LSU]: With their post-season hopes pretty much trampled, the Tigers should be taking this off-time (they can’t be practicing, right?) to look for a new coach.
Impact [Auburn]: Realistically, the postseason is a longshot for the Tigers, but this is certainly a small step in the right direction, but the Aubies need to keep winning.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 54.7% overall shooting

(15-1, 2-1) # Ole Miss [89] vs. (15-3, 2-1) Florida [87]: As expected, this game featured little defense and lots of offense. The Gators pulled out an impressive run late in the game, but the Rebels closed it out for the tight victory. The Rebels’ Dwayne Curtis led all scorers and grabbed the seventh double-double of his season with 20 points and 12 rebounds, while the thus-far impressive Warren dished out 10 assists to only 2 turnovers. Freshman guard Trevor Gaskins also nearly had a career-high day with 19 points. Calathes and Werner led the Gators with 16 points apiece, while Speights saw only 17 minutes of action.
Impact [Ole Miss]: Winning close games at home can build confidence or can produce an emotional hangover, especially with young teams. The Rebels remain in the thick of things in the West with the win to hold serve thus far at home.
Impact [Florida]: Mostly the same, how will the young players react to a close loss on the road? The Gators challenged a very talented Rebel team and look to compete for “best of the rest” behind Tennessee in the East.
Stat of the Game: Both teams shooting a combined 49.6% from the floor

(13-4, 2-1) Arkansas [66] vs. (9-8, 1-2) South Carolina [70]: The hangover from the overtime Alabama/Arkansas matchup proved true in both cases, as the Razorbacks dropped a vital game at home to the Gamecocks. The teams shot similarly, but turnovers (lack of concentration, maybe?) doomed the ‘Backs, led by Weems and Welsh with 4 each. Oddly, each team featured a 28-point scorer: for USC it was sophomore Devan Downey on 9-of-18 shooting and for Arkansas it was senior Sonny Weems with the biggest game of his season on 11-of-19 shooting. The ‘Backs did, however, manage to do what they do so well – rebound, outrebounding USC by 15.
Impact [Arkansas]: Arkansas is very experienced, and this should serve as a wake-up call. The ‘Backs now fall a game behind MSU for the West, and will need every win they can get from here on out. Another bad loss could prove the final straw in terms of an overall or West title.
Impact [South Carolina]: USC is still hoping for the NIT, as the NCAA’s are nearly out of the question at this point, and this was a big step forward towards that goal.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 80.0% free throw shooting (in a 4-point game)

Thursday Game

(15-1, 3-0) #13 Tennessee [80] vs. (16-2, 1-2) #17 Vanderbilt [60]: The Commodores fought hard early in the second half, but the depth and talent of the Vols ran away with a huge victory. The question of just how competitive Vanderbilt is remains to be seen, as it seems the team is buckling under the pressure of talented competition. Both teams shot surprisingly mediocre, with the Vols holding the distinct advantage while holding Vandy to their lowest point total and lowest field-goal percentage of the year. Balanced scoring again led the Volunteers, with Wayne Chism having an absolutely tremendous game with 18 points and 18 rebounds – yikes! Ironically, this was his first double-double of the season. Lofton, easily the most disappointing player in the nation, managed only 11 on 4-of-11 shooting, including 2-of-6 from three. Foster and Ogilvy were again the story for Vanderbilt, but this time in a much more quiet tone – 14 and 12 points respectively. Ogivly couldn’t handle the fact-paced game, as he had only 5 rebounds and 4 turnovers on the game.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols should now have the confidence to play with anyone in the league, having already beaten two teams with 1 loss or less. With these major hurdles out of the way, this team is looking as if it has a chance of an undefeated SEC record.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores’ confidence has to be shot after back-to-back conference losses following a school-record-setting 16-straight wins. If the ‘Dores can’t re-focus on the games at hand, the SEC could be on the verge of witnessing an epic collapse.
Stat of the Game: Vandy’s (the best 3-point shooting team in the SEC) 3-of-21 (14.3%) shooting from behind the arc

Tuesday game, Wednesday Odds…

Overall: 99-18 (84.6%)
Vs. Spread: 38-29 (56.7%)
Overall (SEC): 8-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 5-3 (62.5%)

(12-5, 3-0) Mississippi State [69] vs. (7-8, 1-1) Kentucky [64]: In a game that proved a lot to the nation for both teams, Jarvis Varnado is beginning to make his argument for All-SEC First Team honors. In the game, Varnado recorded State’s only third-ever triple-double, with 10 blocks (for the second game in a row), 12 rebounds, and 10 points. The stats don’t tell the whole story, as simply Varnado’s presence rattled Kentucky – evident by freshman phenom inside-man Patrick Patterson’s stat line: 10 points, 3 rebounds, 1 block. All drastically under his average for the season. Gordon led the Bulldogs offensively with 24 points on his best three-shooting night of the season (5-of-7) while Bradley and Crawford carried the ‘Cats with 22 and 20 points respectively on a collective 14-of-36 shooting performance. Both teams had a surprisingly low number of turnovers considering their aptitudes for such, MSU won the rebounding war 37-28, and the Bulldogs posted an amazing 15 blocks on the game.
Impact [Miss. State]: MSU possibly has more momentum than any other team in the conference behind Tennessee as they head towards Tuscaloosa on Saturday. With both teams coming off recent emotion-filled games, can the Bullies continue their undefeated conference play?
Impact [Kentucky]: This loss should be nothing more than a re-confirmation of the Wildcats’ weaknesses, but nothing less than a tremendous confidence boost as the team played without key members and as Patterson a non-factor against quality competition on the road and nearly pulled the upset.
Stat of the Game: 12, 10 and 10. Varnado is leaving his mark on the competition.

Wednesday Odds

(9-5, 0-1) Georgia [#162] vs. (11-6, 0-2) Alabama [#85]
Spread: Georgia by 3
Pick: Alabama – I’m picking the Crimson Tide in the upset, as Arkansas is significantly stronger than the Bulldogs.
—Keys: If the Tide can effectively feed Hendrix, the game should be their for the taking…but will Alabama still be hung over from a difficult overtime loss to Arkansas?

(7-9, 0-2) LSU [#179] vs. (9-5, 0-2) Auburn [#152]
Spread: LSU by 6
Pick: Auburn – This is an incredibly tough call, but I’m going with Auburn in the upset.
—Keys: Who will find their offense first? Look for Auburn to pass the ball well if they hope to win.

(14-1, 1-1) Ole Miss [#19] vs. (15-2, 2-0) Florida [#77]
Spread: Ole Miss by 5
Pick: Ole Miss – Inexperienced guys, regardless of their talent, typically play much better at home. Both of these teams are highly inexperienced.
—Keys: This game will be heavily offense-oriented, so Florida will need to shoot lights-out to stay close.

(13-3, 2-0) Arkansas [#31] vs. (8-8, 0-2) South Carolina [#133]
Spread: Arkansas by 9.5
Pick: Arkansas – The Razorbacks are tremendously more talented and deep than the Gamecocks.
—Keys: As long as the ‘Backs can avoid a hangover from the overtime win agaisnt Alabama, this one shouldn’t be close. Look for USC to struggle to find their stroke.

Sunday game…

Overall: 98-18 (84.5%)
Vs. Spread: 38-28 (57.6%)
Overall (SEC): 7-0 (100.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 5-2 (71.4%)

(13-3, 2-0) Arkansas [71] vs. (11-6, 0-2) Alabama [67]: Arkansas maintained healthy control of this game throughout until the closing minute, where some costly mistakes (mainly by Gary Ervin) cost Arkansas the lead as the Tide rumbled back to tie the game and send it to overtime. Ervin redeemed himself, however, with five straight points at the end of overtime, winning the game for the Razorbacks. While Beverly had an uncharacteristic off-night, he still led all rebounders with 13. Charles Thomas was a force, scoring 13 points and grabbing 10 rebounds for his second double-double of the season, and Townes led Razorback scorers with 18 on 7-of-8 shooting. Per the usual, Hendrix claimed his ninth double-double (and third straight) with 17 points and 11 rebounds along with 4 blocks, while Gee took a good number of ill-advised shots, shooting only 4-of-16 for 15 points.
Impact [Arkansas]: The close win should wake up the Razorbacks and remind them that the West is still going to be a tough title to claim.
Impact [Alabama]: Two losses in a row capped by today’s heart-breaking overtime defeat could spell hangover, as the Tide must now travel to Georgia and then host Mississippi State in the next week.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas being given 11 more foul shot attempts than ‘Bama

Saturday and Sunday odds…

Apologies for the delayed post. I realize this is in between games, but that’s the best I can do. Forgive the poor formatting, and recaps for all games will come tonight or tomorrow.

(13-1, 0-1) #13 Ole Miss [#21] vs. (7-8, 0-1) LSU [#189]
Spread: Ole Miss by 13.5
Pick: Ole Miss – The Tigers lost at 8-7 Wichita State by 20
—Keys: The Tigers will need to find offense in a hurry to keep this game close.

(8-7, 0-1) South Carolina [#143] vs. (13-1, 1-0) #7 Tennessee [#3]
Spread: Tennessee by 5.5
Pick: Tennessee – The Vols are much more capable offensively
—Keys: Will the Vols choke as badly as they did at Texas on the road?

Sunday Odds

(12-3, 1-0) Arkansas [#38] vs. (11-5, 0-1) Alabama [#82]
Spread: Arkansas by 10
Pick: Alabama – The Razorbacks should win the game, but the Tide have played big games closely
—Keys: Both teams rely heavily on their inside games, but which will shoot better from three?

Tuesday game, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 90-18 (83.3%)
Vs. Spread: 32-26 (55.2%)

I’m unveiling a new couple of new elements to the breakdown of each game as we enter SEC play. The first is called the “Impact”. It’s pretty self explanatory – it’ll breakdown the psychological and tangible impact of each result on both teams involved in the game. Secondly, in the odds, are the “Keys” – things to watch that could away the game.

(11-5, 0-1) Alabama [83] vs. (14-2, 1-0) Florida [90]: This was simply a bad matchup for the Tide, as neither team played defense and the Gators outshot the Tide. In yet another close game, the victor shot from the charity stripe better, as Florida shot 80.8% from the line. Lucas and Calathes, both freshmen, shot the Gators to victory on a combined 11-of-21 performance, as Speights spent most of the game in foul trouble, and the two scored 19 and 21 points respectively. Gee and Hendrix were Alabama’s entire arsenal, as Gee notched 32 on 14-of-(what?!?) 25 attempts, while Hendrix only managed 11 attempts, hit 7 of them, and connected on 12-of-(what?!?) 21 attempts from the free throw line. That’s the most attempts from the stripe I’ve ever seen on a single player.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide’s loss tonight is devastating. Regardless of if the Gators end up in the tournament, if Alabama finds itself on the bubble this loss at home will not look good. UA has now lost 2 of the last 3 on their approach to Fayetteville to meet Arkansas on Sunday. If the Tide can’t pull off an upset win at Arkansas, momentum will turn south and Alabama’s chances in the West will drastically decrease, while the following game at Georgia could be a “hangover” loss waiting to happen.
Impact [Florida]: The win was gigantic for the Gators, as this win sets Florida up for a 2-0 start as they face Auburn at home on Saturday before one of their toughest matchups so far on Wednesday at #13 Ole Miss. The Gators are well on their way to proving their worth to the NCAA committee.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 23.1% free throw shooting advantage

Wednesday Odds

(8-4) Georgia [#190] vs. (7-6, 0-1) Georgia Tech [#90]
Spread: Georgia by 1.5
Pick: Georgia – It’s tough to make this call, because the Yellow Jackets are playing to the level of their competition.
—Keys: Georgia needs not overlook Tech towards SEC play, and play solid defense.

(7-7) LSU [#177] vs. (9-5) Mississippi State [#134]
Spread: Even
Pick: Mississippi State – LSU is playing horribly, and State’s main contributors are not new to this challenge. With that said, this pick guarantees an LSU win, because I apparently can not pick MSU correctly.
—Keys: Mississippi State’s interior defense, as the LSU guards have been utterly incapable so far.

(15-0) #17 Vanderbilt [#6] vs. (8-6) South Carolina [#147]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 8
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Commodores’ potent offense will stretch this out a bit more than 8 points.
—Keys: As long as Vanderbilt doesn’t suddenly go cold, this game shouldn’t be too tough.

(12-1) #7 Tennessee [#4] vs. (13-0) #13 Ole Miss [#20]
Spread: Tennessee by 11
Pick: Ole Miss – Although I still think the Vols take the game, Ole Miss has the offense to keep up with Tennessee.
—Keys: Will the Ole Miss frosh choke on the road in a big-game situation?

Friday game, Saturday odds…

Overall: 84-16 (84.0%)
Vs. Spread: 28-24 (53.8%)

Big day in SEC basketball (and NCAA basketball) coming up today, as several teams focus in on marquee matchups in their struggle to get more than three teams to the NCAA’s.

Friday Game(s)

(11-4) Alabama [93] vs. (5-13) Chicago State [79]: Apparently the Tide left their defense at home, as the Cougars were allowed to shoot 45.3% from the field, including 44.0% from behind the arc and won the turnover battle along with doubling Alabama’s steal numbers. What ‘Bama did do, though, they did tremendously – rebounding. Both Gee and Hendrix (call them Mr. Alabama #1 and #2) each had an absolutely massive game, scoring 17 and 19 points respectively on a combined 14-of-28 shooting performance, and grabbed 14 and 13 rebounds respectively. Hendrix added 4 blocks just for fun. Riley, Pickett, and Hollinger all played well, pitching in 18, 14, and 14 points respectively.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 45-22 rebounding advantage

Saturday Odds

(6-6) Kentucky [#241] vs. (9-4, 0-1) Louisville [#105]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: Louisville – I’ll state the obvious…if the Wildcats can’t beat Gardner-Webb or San Diego at home, who’s to say they can defeat the Cardinals? I’m going with Louisville in the victory.

(14-0) #16 Vanderbilt [#8] vs. (11-2) Massachusetts [#14]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 5.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – Despite a couple of decent wins, UMass has lost to opponents weaker than the Commodores by more.

(8-3) Georgia [#192] @ (10-4) Gonzaga [#28]
Spread: Gonzaga by 11.5
Pick: Gonzaga – Georgia is thin right now, and all of the Zags’ losses have been to quality opponents.

(7-6) LSU [#194] @ (13-1) #12 Texas A&M [#19]
Spread: Texas A&M by 11.5
Pick: Texas A&M – The Tigers lost at Tulane by half this much, I think the Aggies cover the spread easily.

(10-3) Arkansas [#87] @ (11-1) Baylor [#53]
Spread: Arkansas by 3
Pick: Baylor – I think the Bears pull this one out…their only loss was to #4 and undefeated Washington State by three in a game they lead for the majority.

Also picking: (8-5) Mississippi State [#157] over (8-5) Lafayette [#158] in Jackson, MS — (8-5) South Carolina [#126] over (10-3) UNC-Asheville [#175] at home in a close one .

Thursday games, Friday odds…

Overall: 83-16 (83.8%)
Vs. Spread: 28-24 (53.8%)

(14-0) #16 Vanderbilt [76] vs. (3-9) Rice [58]: The stats surprisingly tell a much different tale than the score does, which owes itself in large part to efficient coaching. The Commodores took only five more shots, shot somewhat better from both the field, three-point range, and from the charity stripe, and were outrebounded 36-33. Shan Foster continued his campaign for SEC Player of the Year with 24 points on 8-of-14 shooting (4-of-9 from three), while Olgivy notched 14 on 7-of-10 shooting and nine rebounds. Vanderbilt needs to learn how to take care of the ball before conference play.
Stat of the Game: The Owls’ 1:4 assist-to-turnover ratio

Friday Odds

Picking: (10-4) Alabama [#72] over (5-12) Chicago State [#208] at home

Tuesday games, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 81-16 (83.5%)
Vs. Spread: 27-23 (54.0%)

(10-4) Alabama [61] vs. (12-1) #16 Clemson [87]: After falling by three to Ole Miss and defeating Mississippi State by two, the Tigers of Clemson utilized a scorching second half to dominate the Crimson Tide on their home court. Despite shooting an impressive 9-of-11 from the charity stripe, Alabama shot miserably from behind the arc and the team’s lack of experienced depth truly shone through in this one. Hendrix was held to a mere 14 points and seven rebounds, but Gee – the team’s other clear leader – brought down a team-high 17 points, including a perfect 5-of-5 mark from the free throw line.
Stat of the Game: Mykal Riley’s 1-of-13 shooting

Wednesday Odds

(7-5) LSU [#184] @ (9-4) Tulane [#73]
Spread: LSU by 2
Pick: Tulane – I’m picking the Green Wave to defeat the Tigers…they defeated a much better Georgia team by one at home.

Also picking: (7-5) South Carolina [#97] over (4-9) Radford [#329] at home — (12-0) Ole Miss [#11] over (3-6) Alabama A&M [#327] at home— (12-2) Florida [#123] over (6-5) High Point [#258] at home — (8-2) Auburn [#164] over (3-8) Texas A&M C.C. [#315] at home

Monday games, Tuesday odds…

Overall: 80-16 (83%)
Vs. Spread: 26-23 (53%)

(6-6) Kentucky [92] vs. (3-9, 0-2) Florida International [49]: The Wildcats finally took care of business against a weaker opponent the way they are supposed to. Three – yes, three – ‘Cats scored 20+ points including Patterson’s 20, Meeks’ 21, and Bradley’s 22. The two combined for 17-of-34 shooting and Crawford scored 11 to round out UK players in double figures. Kentucky basically owned the Golden Panthers in every way.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 11-of-22 shooting from behind the arc

(13-0) #17 Vanderbilt [97] vs. (5-9, 1-1) Iona [73]: The Commodores’ defense continues to prove its ineptitude and their offense continues to bail them out. Vandy allowed the Gaels to score 73 on 49.1% shooting, but the ‘Dores shot even better at 56.0%. Both Foster and Ogilvy recorded 20 points, AJ hitting 12-of-13 free throws and claiming nine rebounds, with Foster taking the most shots (13). No other Vanderbilt player attempted more than seven.
Stat of the Game: Vandy’s 11-of-20 (55.0%) shooting from three

Tuesday Odds

(10-3) Alabama [#56] vs. (11-1) #16 Clemson [#42]
Spread: Even
Pick: Clemson – The Tide haven’t been playing well and Clemson is formidable. I believe the Tigers will win this game.

Saturday games, Sunday odds…

Overall: 77-15 (84%)
Vs. Spread: 25-21 (54%)

 An impressive 6-1 mark against the spread tonight, missing only the Vanderbilt spread (shoulda known better than to pick with a 24.5er). I had gone 0-fer-about 7 up until that point. About time.

(12-0) #17 Vanderbilt [92] vs. (5-8) Tennessee-Martin [85]: This game was much closer than expected, mostly due to the nation’s third-ranked scorer, SkyHawk junior Lester Hudson, who brought down 36 points on 13 made field goals (yes, 13) out of 26 attempted (yes, 26). Hudson put up 42.6% of the team’s shots, along with 9 rebounds and 6 assists. A.J. Ogilvy led the Commodores with 21 points and 9 rebounds, whereas Foster and Gordon combined for 31 points.
Stat of the Game: Commodores’ only 10 turnovers

(5-6) Kentucky [72] vs. (7-8) San Diego [81]: Barring a remarkable comeback in the SEC, the Wildcats are now focusing merely on making the NIT…the NCAA’s are pretty much over with yet another embarassing home loss to a far inferior team. Patterson and Bradley each scored 20 points and were both a perfect 6-6 from the charity stripe, but only five other ‘Cats scored and only one of those as many as 10 points. The team simply relied too heavily on Bradley, and has no depth in their guards but are strangely guard-heavy. Chemistry is completely lacking, and it’s painfully clear. Something smells in Lexington, and I believe it’s the smell of the Kentucky basketball team melting down.
Stat of the Game: San Diego’s 9-of-16 shooting (56.2%) from behind the arc

(8-2) Auburn [79] vs. (4-7, 0-1) Towson [59]: One of those boring games with no storyline outside of sheer domination. Towson has no player score more than 13 points, and only two more than 10, and Prowell notched 25 along with 11 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Robertson had an enormous game, dishing out 11 assists without a single turnover. Barrett, who has failed to score in double figures only once this season, recorded 19 points but only on 9-of-21 shooting.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 20 assists to Towson’s 9

(7-5) LSU [65] vs. (8-4) Washington [73]: I correctly picked the upset, as a lack of balance plagued the Tigers throughout this game. Despite four LSU players scored in double figures, only one other even managed to get his name on the scoreboard – freshman Garett Green with 4. Junior center Chris Johnson rebounded (literally and figuratively) from two poor outings to score 19 points on 9-of-12 shooting and 9 rebounds. Anthony Randolph’s poor performance seriously hurt the Tigers, as he shot only 2-of-11, though he did claim 9 boards.
Stat of the Game: Four LSU players scoring 94% of the Tiger’s points

(12-1) #13 Tennessee [82] @ (9-4) #20 Gonzaga [72]: Great win for the Volunteers, despite another mediocre/poor performance from preseason National Player of the Year contender Chris Lofton. Lofton shot only 4-of-13 from the field, including 3-of-12 from behind the arc. Impressively, six Tennessee players scored in double figures, led by Jujuan Smith’s 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting. Tyler Smith recorded his second double-double of the season with 11 points and rebounds apiece.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 67 shots attempted versus Gonzaga’s 56

(10-3) Alabama [93] vs. (4-6) George Washington [57]: Another dominating performance for the SEC today, as once again Gee and Hendrix led the Tide to the win. Hendrix recorded 18 points and 11 rebounds, including 8-of-13 shooting from the charity stripe…but Gee was the most impressive tonight. Gee scored 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting and 3-of-4 from behind the arc and brought down 13 boards, leading the game in both categories. Torrance had one of his best games, giving 10 assists to only 1 turnover.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s +18 rebound advantage

(12-2) Florida [86] vs. (6-6) Temple [69]: Owl junior guard Dionte Christmas is the only thing keeping this from a 30+ point blowout, as he scored 32 on 11-of-17 shooting. The Gators’ scoring was once again balanced and deep, as five Florida players scored in double digits. Speights posted 20 on 7-of-10 shooting, and Calathes shot relatively poorly (5-of-13) but grabbed 7 rebounds and dished out 8 assists with a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 31-of-51 shooting (60.8%)

(10-3) Arkansas [85] vs. (6-7) Louisiana-Monroe [60]: Three Razorbacks scored 17 in this blowout, as Arkansas outdid everything in the win except for one surprising stat…they were outrebounded by LA-Monroe 33-30. The impressive trio of Beverly/Weems/Townes combined for 51 points on a combined 22-of-32 shooting. Townes also grabbed eight rebounds, and Thomas hit a perfect 8-of-8 free throws.
Stat of the Game: LAMU’s miserable 6:24 (1:4) assist-to-turnover ratio

Sunday Games

(7-5) #159 Mississippi State vs. (9-4) #97 Missouri
Spread: MSU by 2.5
Pick: Missouri – I’m going with the Tigers in the win, as they only lost to a talented Michigan State team on the road by three.

Also picking: Georgia over Presbyterian at home (not such a tough pick on this one)

Friday games, Saturday odds…

Overall: 70-14 (83%)
Vs. Spread: 19-20 (49%)

(7-5) South Carolina [67] vs. 4-8 UC-Irvine [65]: The Anteaters of UC-Irvine, who earlier in the season fell at a 6-8 San Diego team by three, lost only by two to the Gamecocks of the SEC. USC couldn’t handle senior big-men Sanders and Fells, who each scored 20 points on a combined 16-of-28 shooting performance. Downey had a tough outing despite his 17 points, shooting only 5-of-14 from the floor and turning the ball over 5 times, but sophomore forward Dominic Archie came through in the clutch with 18 points and seven rebounds but most importantly: 7-of-9 shooting from the charity stripe. Again the better free-throw shooting team won the close game, as USC shot 82.4% and UCI shot only 62.5%.
Stat of the Game: USC’s two lowest-percentage shooters (Downey @ 36% and Fredrick @ 44%) attempting the most shots (14 and 9, respectively)

12-0 Ole Miss [78] vs. 8-4 Southern Miss [58]: This was simply a case of a team turning it on when it had to. This game was competitive throughout, as the Rebels only led at halftime by six, and Kennedy whipped his boys into shape late into the second half and Ole Miss scorched by the Golden Eagles. This was an impressive win, and soldifies the Rebels as a major player in the SEC West. Four Rebels scored in double figures, led by Warren and Polynice, who scored 17 and 16 points apiece.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss’ 45.0% shooting from behind the arc

Saturday Games

(11-0) #17 Vanderbilt vs. 5-7 Tennessee-Martin
Spread: Vanderbilt by 24.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – This is a tough pick because of the enormous spread, but the Commodores could cover it if they play to their potential.

(5-5) Kentucky vs. 6-8 San Diego
Spread: Kentucky by 12
Pick: San Diego – Although the Wildcats should win this game, the Toreros have only lost one game by more than eleven, including a 10-point loss at USC.

(7-2) Auburn vs. (4-6, 0-1) Towson
Spread: Auburn by 12.5
Pick: Auburn – Townson is a really, really bad team.

(7-4) LSU vs. (7-4) Washington
Spread: LSU by 4.5
Pick: Washington – I’m picking the Huskies in the upset with the win…LSU simply doesn’t have the chemistry to pull off a solid win.

(11-1) #13 Tennessee @ (9-3) #20 Gonzaga
Spread: Even
Pick: Tennessee – The Vols have been very competitive outside their embarassment to Texas.

(9-3) Alabama vs. (4-5) George Washington
Spread: Alabama by 9.5
Pick: Alabama – GWU lost 59-71 at Binghamton

(11-2) Florida vs. (6-5) Temple
Spread: Florida by 7
Pick: Florida – Temple’s best win is 7-5 Drexel

Also picking: (9-3) Arkansas over (6-6) LA-Monroe at home.

Sunday games…

Overall: 68-14 (83%)
Vs. Spread: 19-19 (50%)

9-3 Alabama (83) vs. 7-4 Iowa State (68): Wesley Johnson, and his 20 points, simply wasn’t enough to compete with the Tide. No other Cyclone scored in double figures, while four Tide players did so, including three with 18 or more. Alonzo Gee grabbed his second double-double of the season with 23 points and 11 rebounds, and Richard Hendrix shot 8-of-13 for 18 points and 7 rebounds. Riley and Pickett combined for 31 points, and Alabama outrebounded their opponents 31-24. The team also shared the ball amazingly well, dishing out 31 assists.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 11-of-17 (64.7%) shooting from behind the arc

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday games…

Overall: 68-14 (83%)
Vs. Spread: 19-19 (50%)

Okay, so I’ve been raped by the spread here lately. Also, apologies for lagging behind – the Christmas holidays have brought a friend’s wedding, a trip to Los Angeles, and a ton of shopping. After the holdays pass, things will return to normal.

Thursday Games

10-0 Ole Miss (69) vs. 2-6 DePaul (63): The Rebels remain undefeated with a narrow victory over the Demons, carried by Dwayne Curtis’ 21 points on 7-of-12 shooting along with seven rebounds and 7-of-8 shooting from the charity stripe. Kenny Williams grabbed his third double-double of the season with his 10 points and impressive 16 rebounds. Overall, the Rebels just barely shot with more accuracy to pull the game out at home, along with a great 82.4% mark from the free throw line as a team.
Stat of the Game: The Rebels’ 70 shots attempted versus DePaul’s 57

6-2 Georgia (58) vs. 5-5 East Tennessee State (76): And the Bulldogs’ lack of a solid, reliable inside game has finally caught up to them. No player scored more than 10 points, with the lone Bulldog scoring in double figures being freshman Jeremy Price, despite shooting just 3-of-7 from the field. Conversely, three Buccaneers scored at least 14. Of note, Georgia put up 28 threes and hit only 8 of them, good for only 28.6%. And that – my friends – is why Dennis Felton will lose his job this season. When you’re not hitting threes…don’t shoot them.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s Center Dave Bliss shooting 100% but only taking 3 shots

Friday Games

10-0 Ole Miss (84) vs. 4-5 La Salle (77): This game was won purely and solely by coaching. The teams were competitive in nearly every way, but the Rebels simply executed better down the stretch. Proving their depth and balance, Ole Miss ‘ two most outstanding players differed than the day before, as Polynice put up 20 points on 7-of-16 shooting and freshman Chris Warren scored in double digits for the eleventh time in eleven games with 19 points. Curtis and Huertas each scored 14.
Stat of the Game: Rebels’ putting up 12 more shots than the Explorers

7-5 Mississippi State (95) @ 2-7 Texas A&M Corpus Christi (70): The Bulldogs are seemingly finding their touch that they were expected to have before their 5-5 start, shooting a combined 54.5% in the last two games. Charles Rhodes fell one point shy of his career tie by scoring 26 points and registered his second-straight double-double (and fourth of the season) with 10 rebounds. Sophomore Barry Stewart regained his touch, shooting 6-of-8 from the field for 19 points. Freshman Phil Turner also shot well, shooting 4-of-5 and 3-of-3 from behind the arc for 13 points.
Stat of the Game: Mississippi State’s +16 rebound advantage

6-3 Georgia (69) vs. 7-4 Tulane (70): In an incredibly low-scoring event, the Bulldogs’ rebounding fell a point shy to the Green Wave’s impressive shooting. Despite being offered 13 more free throws, Georgia couldn’t take the advantage to the bank in the closing moments. Jeremy Price was by far the most outstanding Bulldog of the outing, scoring 22 points on 9-of-13 shooting and six rebounds, while Billy Humphrey managed 14 as the Georgia guards continue to struggle.
Stat of the Game: Tulane’s 56.2% field goal percentage

Saturday Games

8-3 Alabama (81) vs. 7-4 Missouri State (73): Richard Hendrix absolutely dominated the Bears single-handedly in this game between two decent teams, as Hendrix scored a a season-high 30 points on 13-of-15 shooting along with nine rebounds. Gee, Hendrix’s co-team leader, recorded 18 on 6-of-11 shooting, and Riley/Torrance combined for 23 points. Conversely, no Bear scored more than 13 points. That speaks to both the top-heavyness of Alabama and the balance of Missouri State.
Stat of the Game: Hendrix/Gee/Riley combined for 34 attempts, remainder of team combining for 18

9-3 Arkansas (67) vs. 5-5 Appalachian State (74): More embarassment for the SEC. The Razorbacks’ talent level, and four players scoring more than 10 points, wasn’t enough to overcome a previously 4-5 Appy State team. The Mountaineers shot an absolutely blazing 66.6% from the field despite attempting 18 less shots, and most surprisingly heavily outrebounded the ‘Backs. Charles Thomas led the Razorbacks with 15 points off of 6-of-10 shooting, but no other Razorback would shoot better than 40% from the field.
Stat of the Game: ASU’s 31-22 rebound advantage

7-2 Auburn (67) vs. Alabama A&M 3-6 (56): Believe it or not, this game was surprisingly close for Auburn fans, considering the A&M Bulldogs have yet to defeat a Division 1-A team. A&M shot terribly, but managed to attempt 12 more shots (a sign of Lebo’s extremely poor coaching) and outrebounded the Tigers by two. Barber carried the team, scoring 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting, and Barrett managed 12. A very bad sign would be Quantez Robertson, Auburn’s undersized point guard, leading the team with 9 rebounds.
Stat of the Game: AAM’s 8:15 assist-to-turnover ratio

7-3 Georgia (67) vs. 3-7 Hawaii (59): The Georgia guards are trying to turn it around, as Sundiata Gaines led the Bulldogs with 15 points. Price and Swansey each scored 12, and Woodbury notched 11. The teams were surprisingly evenly-matched throughout the game, but Felton finally managed to get the big men to rebound and the guards to score. Of note, Georgia posted a miserable 7:20 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Stat of the Game: UGA’s 45.1% field goal percentage

5-5 Kentucky (69) vs. 4-8 Tennessee Tech (47): The Wildcats broke a four-game losing streak and improved to .500 by soundly defeating the Golden Eagles with hot shooting and dominating the rebounding column. Patrick Patterson scored in double figures for the eighth-straight game, leading the ‘Cats with 24 points and 15 rebounds (yes, this kid is a freshman) on 11-of-14 shooting. Ramel Bradley did what he does best – shoot free throws – hitting 7-of-8 from the stripe. Only one Golden Eagle scored as many as 12 points.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 53.1% field goal shooting against TTSU’s 26.4%

7-4 LSU (67) vs. 6-5 Oregon State (61): The Beavers physically dominated the Tigers, but couldn’t follow up in free throws, hitting only 50% of them, but outrebounding them by 10. Guess who led the Tigers in scoring? Thornton. Despite shooting only 6-of-17 from the field, Thornton brought down 20 points. Anthony Randolph, the impressive freshman, fell just a rebound shy of a double-double with 14 points.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 77.3% from free throw percentage vs. OSU’s 50%

11-0 Ole Miss (85) vs. 10-1 Clemson (82): The Rebels sure are playing well. The Tigers of Clemson went into the game undefeated, and Ole Miss won by three to remain undefeated. Good free throw shooting is a trademark of teams that close out games, and the Rebels shot an impressive 81.8% from the charity stripe versus Clemson’s 68.4%. Both Curtis and Warren chipped in 19 points – Warren shooting significantly better – and both Polynice and Huertas scored 14 points. The Rebels managed to overcome Clemson’s impressive 42.9% shooting from behind the arc, as well.
Stat of the Game: Polynice and Curtis combining for 17 rebounds

11-2 Florida (49) @ 8-3 Ohio State (62): The Gators finally met a team that could shut them down, and the Buckeyes did so in great fashion. The Gators were held to only 33.3% shooting, including 17.4% from behind the arc, were outrebounded, and were held to an assist-to-turnover ratio of less than 1. Calathes was obviously targetted, as he shot 1-of-9, and the team as a whole shot only 53.8% from the charity stripe.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 4-of-23 mark from behind the arc

6-5 South Carolina (85) vs. 4-6 Charleston (82): Another game that shouldn’t have been as close as it was. Both teams played an almost identical game, shooting the exact same percentage from the field and nearly the same amount of rebounds. Per the usual, the close game came down to free throw shooting, as USC shot 85.7% and UC shot 55.6%. Five USC players scored in double figures, with Frederick shooting 8-of-15 for 21 points to lead the Gamecocks. Downey scored 18 on 7-of-17 shooting and and 7 assists to only 2 turnovers.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 30% free throw shooting advantage

11-0 Vanderbilt (83) vs. 3-7 Tennessee State (74): The Commodores dominated this game except for their 21 turnovers compared to only 14 assists, which provided the Tigers with 10 more chances at the goal. Shan Foster again led Vanderbilt shooting 7-of-10 from the field and led the team with 12 rebounds, along with 3-of-4 shooting from behind the arc and 5-of-6 from the charity stripe. Foster would probably be my pick for the SEC Player of the Year.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s +12 rebound advantage

11-1 Tennessee (82) @ 8-3 Xavier (75): This was the Volunteers’ most quality win of the year thus far, and they did so by forcing turnovers and stepping into passing lanes without regard to rebounding. An interesting concept, to say the least. Lofton’s first-team All-SEC hopes are pretty much gone at this point, much less all-America or National Player of the Year, as he again shot poorly…this time 3-of-12 and 1-of-5 from behind the arc…for only nine points. The newly-available J.P. Prince had his breakout game of the year, scoring 11 more points than any other team member (23) on 9-of-14 shooting. The Vols were, however, outrebounded 37-25.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 63 shot attempts vs. Xavier’s 50

Wednesday games, Thursday odds…

Overall: 68-14 (83%)
Vs. Spread: 19-17 (53%)

Thursday Games

South Carolina (84) vs. Baylor (92): Well…I lost every spread today. This one was the least embarassing, though, as Baylor has been rockin’ so far this season. Two Bears scored more than 20 points, while no Gamecocks managed to do the same. Raley-Ross and Downey each has 18 points on a collective 12-of-25 shooting performance and Downey approached his second double-double of the season with nine assists – but also five turnovers. This game was simply a case of hot shooting by Baylor.
Stat of the Game: Baylor’s 11-of-21 mark (52.4%) from behind the arc

LSU (49) @ Wichita State (69): This was easily the Tigers’ worst loss so far this season. The Shockers’ best victory thus far was Illinois-Chicago with a loss to a terrible Monmouth team mixed in, and Miles dropped the game by twenty. Absolutely no Tigers could find their stroke from the field today, as the best scorer was Thornton with 12 points despite a 3-of-13 mark from the floor, although he did lead the game with 11 rebounds. If the Shockers wouldn’t have hit only 2-of-19 (10.5%) of their three-pointers, this could have been a 30+ point blowout.
Stat of the Game: WSU’s 44-28 rebound advantage

Mississippi State (85) @ Loyola Marymount (54): Of course the Bulldogs wipe the floor with a team after I finally decide to stop picking with them against the spread. Gordon could easily have topped 30-35 points on the game had the backups not seen so much playing time, though he still managed to come within 2 points of his career high of 27 points. Gordon rebounded from a 1-of-14 performance against South Alabama by hitting 9-of-14 from the floor on the night, including a career-best 5-of-7 from behind the arc. Rhodes notched his third double-double of the season with 14 points and 10 rebounds, while Varnado fell just one block shy of the all-time MSU single-game blocked shot record he set just two games ago with 9.
Stat of the Game: Hansbrough/Gordon with a combined 14:5 assist-turnover ratio

Florida (89) vs. Charleston Southern (64): Calathes again led the Gators with 18 points and also grabbed a team-high nine rebounds (keeping in mind this is a freshman), and three other squad members scored 12 points or more. Walter Hodge had an especially impressive gave, dishing out 6 assists and not turning the ball over, along with five steals. That’s a solid roleplayer. I’ll go ahead and say this…this team is going to win another national championship with these players.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s +14 turnover margin

Tennessee (86) vs. UNC-Asheville (73): In my opinion, Tennessee can now officially be ruled out as a national title contender. Why, you ask? The team is loaded with talent, yes, but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Bruce Pearl simply can’t coach defense. UNC-Asheville is a decent squad but the Bulldogs managed to score 73 points on the Volunteers, as the Vols rank eighth in the conference in scoring defense. Defense wins championships – ever heard it? It’s true. Lofton tried, and almost failed, to carry the team on his back by shooting 17 times – and only hitting 7 of those – and only 4-of-12 from behind the arc. He did, however, shoot a perfect 6-of-6 from the charity stripe to tie his season high with 24 points.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 29 three-pointers attempted

Auburn (68) vs. Mercer (59): The Tigers’ slight rebound and turnover margins afforded them this victory, as the Tigers managed to attempt 11 more shots than the Bears. Barrett put up an obscene 21 attempts and only hit 8 of them, but still managed 17 points. Robertson actually recorded a negative assist-to-turnover ratio at 1:3, but recorded eight rebounds.
Stat of the Game: Mercer’s 8:19 assist-to-turnover ratio

Alabama (75) vs. Texas Pan-America (65): Four Tide squad members scored in double digits and the Broncs were outrebounded 34-21 and Alabama still only managed a 10-point victory over TPAU. Alabama certainly could have helped their cause by shooting better than 58.3% from free throw. And…surprise! Hendrix proved to be the most reliable Tide member, scoring a game-high 18 points on 8-of-12 shooting and grabbing 8 rebounds and gee attempted an identical 12 shots. That’s about how it should be at this point.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s +13 rebound margin

Arkansas (90) vs. Northwestern State (59): This was about the blowout it should have been. This was another one of those typical dominated-in-every-way type games, as the Razorbacks shot better, took more shots, and outrebounded the Demons. Sonny Weems had the biggest game of his season with 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting as Townes recorded 17 and Beverly scored 16.
Stat of the Game: NWSU’s 11:23 assist-to-turnover ratio

Thursday Odds

Ole Miss vs. DePaul
Spread: Ole Miss by 8
Pick: Ole Miss – DePaul is 2-5 despite a close outing against Vanderbilt, and the Rebels should win by 10+.

Georgia vs. East Tennessee State
Spread: Georgia by 9
Pick: Georgia – ETSU is playing talented teams closely, but the Dawgs are also hot right now.

Monday and Tuesday games, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 62-12 (84%)
Vs. Spread: 19-14 (54%)

Monday Games 

Alabama (80) vs. Wofford (73): Alonzo Gee could very well have won the game for the Tide in this very close matchup against a team who recently lost to Elon. Yes, Elon. Gee scored 20+ points for the second game in a row with his 21 on 6-of-17 shooting and also grabbed nine rebounds. The ulta-reliable Hendrix pulled down 16 points on 7-of-11 shooting. Free throw shooting almost cost Alabama the game, as they shot 50% (12-of-24) while the Terriers shot 90.5% (19-of-21).
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s guards taking 71% of their attempts from the floor

Tuesday Games

Kentucky (69) @ Houston (83): This was a game of a complete imbalance for Kentucky, as the newly-returned sophomore Jodie Meeks and Joe Crawford combined for 49 of the Wildcats’ 69 points (71%) and 32 of their 50 shots attempted (64%). No other member of the squad could manage more than six points. Transversely, six of the Cougars scored eight or more points. Meeks had a good game, scoring 21 points on 7-of-14 shooting and five rebounds, while Crawford shot 9-of-18 overall and 8-of-9 from the charity stripe to score 28. Kentucky and Mississippi State – two traditionally successful SEC teams – are slamming the panic button as State is now 5-5 on the season and the Wildcats are an obscene 4-5 with four-straight losses.

Wednesday Odds

South Carolina vs. Baylor
Spread: South Carolina by 3
Pick: South Carolina – Baylor is surprisingly competitive this season, but when I’m unsure my theory is to take the home team.

LSU @ Wichita State
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU – Wichita State has been pretty embarassingly weak this season, including a 50-59 home loss to a ridiculously bad Monmouth team.

Mississippi State @ Loyola Marymount
Spread: MSU by 16.5
Pick: Loyola Marymount – I’ve finally learned my lesson. State hasn’t been blowing anyone out this season, and this is a gigantic spread for an away victory, regardless of how bad of a team LMU is this season. With that said, the Dawgs should still be able to come away with a victory.

Also picking: Florida over Charleston Southern at home, Tennessee over UNC-Asheville at home, Auburn over Mercer at home, Alabama over Texas Pan-America at home, and Arkansas over Northwestern State at home.

Saturday games…

Overall: 55-8 (86%)
Vs. Spread: 16-11 (59%)

Alabama (91) vs. Nicholls State (53): Apparently Bama’s guards were playing well enough that Gottfried decided to let Hendrix get some rest, as the thus-far stellar post presence received only 17 minutes, scoring only five points and claiming six rebounds. Riley and Gee each dominated the game, scoring 22 and 20 points respectively on a combined 16-of-28 performance from the field. Gee also had 12 rebounds for his first double-double of the year. This game was domination from the beginning.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 40-22 rebounding advantage

Georgia (72) vs. Wake Forest (50): Although Wake has struggled at times this year, they only lost at #23 Vanderbilt by three. This game was a surprise game for the Bulldogs, as their rebounding and hot shooting carried them through, despite turning the ball over an insane 26 times. Four Bulldogs scored in double figures, with Sundiata Gaines again showing up big with 15 points, nine rebounds, and five assists (but six turnovers).
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 52.7% field goal percentage

Kentucky (51) @ Indiana (70): The Hoosiers outplayed the Wildcats in nearly every way: shooting, rebounding, turnovers, even free throw shooting – and without Eric Gordon. The ever-reliable Patterson scored a team-high 15 points and had five rebounds to go along with five turnovers, and Perry Stevenson notched 10 points and six rebounds. D.J. White scored 16 on Kentucky and grabbed a game-high 13 rebounds.
Stat of the Game: Stevenson and Patterson combining for only 14 field goal attempts

Mississippi State (84) vs. Southeastern Louisiana (59): The Bulldogs looked up to expectations for the first time this season as they blew out the same team that had the Tide beat in Tuscaloosa before losing by two in overtime and lost to LSU by ten. Although the Lions’ free throw shooting was exceptional (80%), that’s about the only thing they were allowed to do well as they shot an unbelievably poor 1-of-11 from behind the arc for 9.1%. Gordon has another massive game scoring 25 points on 8-of-18 shooting (yes, 18 attempts), seven rebounds, and shooting 8-of-10 from the charity stripe. Rhodes also contributed 16 points and seven rebounds.
Stat of the Game: 13 Bulldogs scoring at least one point

Ole Miss (76) @ Central Florida (67): Believe it or not, this was a pretty decent win for the Rebels, as UCF has been playing quality competition tough. The Rebels’ unstoppable defense didn’t slow down too much despite only scoring 76 points (yes, only, as they average 94.5 points per game). Chris Warren again scored reliably for Ole Miss but turned the ball over a remarkable NINE times without a single assist. Senior Kenny Williams scored 11 and had 8 rebounds, while two other Rebels scored in double figures.
Stat of the Game: Warren responsible for 60% of the Rebels’ turnovers for the game

Vanderbilt (90) vs. Lipscomb (67): This was the blowout most expected of this game as Vanderbilt continues to move its way into the consciousness of the general basketball public. Ogilvy had his biggest game yet, scoring 26 points on an impressive 9-of-12 shooting performance, as he was also 8-of-12 from the free throw line and claimed 10 rebounds. Foster continues to make his argument for SEC Player of the Year, as he scored 21 on 7-of-10 shooting.
Stat of the Game: The Commodores’ 11-of-22 shooting from three

Wednesday games, Thursday odds…

Overall: 55-8 (87%)
Vs. Spread: 16-11 (59%)

Wednesday Games

Alabama (60) vs. #7 Georgetown (70): This was a surprisingly competitive game, with the Hoyas simply making their plays in the end when it counted and the Tide turning the ball over or missing a free throw every time momentum was in their favor. Despite being outrebounding tremendously 43-28, the Tide actually got nine more shots off in part due to only turning the ball over eight times total. Hendrix led the Tide in scoring – what’s new? – with 17 points and nine rebounds, and Riley shot an impressive 4-of-7 from three for 15 points. Unfortunately for the SEC, Gottfried simply doesn’t have the experienced depth to compete with the higher ranked teams.
Stat of the Game: Three Georgetown players with eight or more rebounds

Florida (91) vs. Florida A&M (52): The Gators’ comical schedule continues forward, as they dominated this game as they were fully expected to. One of the most underlooked freshmen in the country, Nick Calathes scored 20 points and fell 1 assist and 2 rebounds shy of Florida’s second-ever triple-double. Speights, the Gator co-star, scored his third double-double of the year with 10 points and rebounds apiece, and unreliable but potential-filled freshman Adam Allen had a career-high 19 points on a 7-of-10 shooting performance.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 62.7% shooting percentage

#23 Vanderbilt (83) vs. Wake Forest (80): I’m beginning to believe the Commodores are a legitimate Top 25 team. Although Wake Forest isn’t a world-beater, they’re not a pushover either. And I’ll go ahead and admit it….I was wrong about Ogilvy. He’s good. Still not a top NBA prospect as he was picked to be, but he’s very talented offensively. His problem is physicality – he hasn’t learned to rebound or block efficiently enough to play at that high of a level yet, but I do not doubt he will eventually. He scored 23 points on the game in only 26 minutes of play, but claimed a disappointed five rebounds. Shan Foster continues his bid for SEC Player of the Year, scoring 26 points on 8-of-15 shooting and seven rebounds.
Stat of the Game: The Commodores’ 85.2% free throw percentage

Auburn (59) vs. West Virginia (88): The score pretty much says it all. The Mountaineers jumped out to a 26-4 lead and never looked back. The Tigers couldn’t defend, were rattled by the pressure defense into panicked and ill-advised shots, and turned the ball over 20 times. Auburn’s depth is inexcusable, and Lebo’s job is looking even more unsettled as only seven Tigers saw any playing time. Dewayne Reed is looking like the only truly competing scorer of the bunch, as he has only failed to score in double figures once this season. He notched 19 points on the night, but took an insane 19 shots and only hit seven, and turned the ball over five times.
Stat of the Game: West Virginia’s +14 turnover margin

Thursday Odds

None released, but I’m taking: Providence over South Carolina in a close one in Pennsylvania and #25 Villanova over LSU in a complete blowout, also in Pennsylvania.

Monday and Tuesday games, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 51-8 (86%)
Vs. Spread: 16-11 (59%)

The spread isn’t treating me well lately…

Monday Games

Arkansas (70) vs. Missouri State (51): The Razorbacks’ scoring was as balanced of an outing as any SEC team has showed so far this year with every player but one scoring, eight scoring six or more, but none scoring more than 12. Sophomore Michael Washington had his first double-double of the season with 12 points and 12 rebounds each, although there were trouble spots for Arkansas. The ‘Backs turned the ball over 21 times and shot only 18.8% from three.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 42-25 rebound advantage

Florida (88) vs. Jacksonville (72): The Gators’ lack of defense is becoming increasingly clear, as the only other team to allow Jacksonville to score 72 points in a loss so far is UAB, and the Dolphins shot 49% from the field. The Gators also were this time not led by their balanced attack this time, as freshman phenom Nick Calathes scored 24 points but shot 17 times and had nine assists, while Speights and Parsons combined for 33 points and the three shot a total of 38 of the team’s 60 attempts.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 20 assists

Georgia (81) vs. Augusta State (74): Keep in mind, Augusta State is not one of 336+ division 1-A teams. This score provided a stark reminder of how immature the remaining Bulldog squad is, as both Brown and Mercer have been released from the team. Augusta State was allowed to shoot 46.2% from three on 26 attempts, and attempted a total of 12 more shots than Georgia. Sundiata Gaines tried to carry the team on his back, scoring 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting while Woodbury fell one rebound shy of a double-double with his 11 points.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 22 free throws attempted versus ASU’s 11

Tuesday Game

Tennessee (76) vs. UT-Chattanooga (70): Lofton is pretty much out of the SEC Player of the Year honors at this point without a major rebound, much less the National title of the same name. Lofton, despite scoring 16 points, shot a miserable 4-of-13 from the field – only three of those not from behind the arc – and turned the ball over four times. He did lead the Vols in points, however, and four others scored over double digits. Despite being outshot and outrebounded – both heavily – the Vols managed to attempt ten more shots to compensate, if only barely.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 37 threes attempted

Wednesday Odds

None released, but I’m taking: Georgetown over Alabama at UA, Florida over Florida A&M at home, Vanderbilt over Wake Forest at home, and West Virginia over Auburn at AU.

Friday and Saturday games, Monday odds…

Overall: 48-8 (86%)
Vs. Spread: 16-10 (62%)

Friday Games

Tennessee (98) vs. LA Lafayette (70): Another spread missed by half a point. It’s painful. Anyways… The most surprising stat of this game is Lofton’s five shots taken. On top of that, he hit only 2 of them and was 1-of-3 from behind the arc for seven points. Tyler Smith had his biggest game as a Vol, scoring 22 points on 6-of-9 shooting and most surprising, a game-high 8 assists. Duke Crews is back, and he grabbed a game-high nine rebounds and recorded 10 points.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 53.8% field goal percentage

Florida (86) vs. Vermont (61): It’s official…Nick Calathes is the most overlooked freshman in the nation. Having scored less than 11 points only twice, he scored 21 points against Vermont on 6-of-8 shooting and hit 8-of-11 shots from the charity stripe. Six other Gators scored five or more points, continuing the Gators’ balanced scoring attack.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 41-22 rebound advantage

LSU (88) vs. Southern (45): The Tigers thoroughly owned Southern, outshooting, outrebounding, and out-everything else them. Three Tigers scored more than 20 points, with freshman Anthony Randolph scoring his third 20+ point performance of the year and his second double-double with 11 rebounds. Junior Marcus Thornton is proving to be one of the most impressive players in the SEC thus far, scoring 22 points on the game and averaging 19.86 points per game this year.
Stat of the Game: No Southern player scoring more than nine points

Saturday Games

Alabama (63) vs. Southeastern Louisiana (61): In overtime, the Tide managed to squeak past a team that returns 1 player from a 16-win team. At home. Riley had a huge game with 23 points on 5-of-8 shooting from behind the arc, and Hendrix continues to try and carry Alabama on his shoulders, scoring 17 points and claiming 7 rebounds. Jemison and gee also each had eight rebounds.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 71 shots taken compared to SELA’s 49

Arkansas (62) vs. Oral Roberts (51): Gary Ervin finally had a decent game, leading the Razorbacks with 16 points and only turning the ball over 1 time. The game’s difference was Arkansas’ shooting, as they shot 44.9% from the field as compared to ORU’s 37.5%. Darian Townes had a good game, scoring 14 points and blocking four shots.
Stat of the Game: 11 blocks for Arkansas

South Carolina (74) @ Clemson (85): Junior Zam Frederick’s eighth-straight double-digit effort and game-leading 28 points wasn’t enough for the Gamecocks, as only two others scored more than 10 points. Both team’s shot comparatively, along with taking 66 shots each, but the difference was the rebounding – where Clemson had a sizeable advantage.
Stat of the Game: Clemson’s 37-29 rebound advantage

Kentucky (77) vs. North Carolina (86): Apparently the Wildcats are set on playing just under the level of competition they face, as they played the top-ranked team in the nation to a close game. Joe Crawford, Patrick Patterson, and Ramel Bradley each scored 19 points or more, and Patterson also had nine rebounds. Tyler Hansbrough had a disappointing game, shooting only 2-of-8 from the field but still managing 14 points and 11 rebounds for his third double-double of the year.
Stat of the Game: UNC’s 34 free throws attempted against Kentucky’s 22

Ole Miss (85) vs. New Mexico (77): Ole Miss almost tripped up against a 7-0 but untested New Mexico team, but managed to outshoot their way to the win. Dwayne Curtis recorded his second-straight double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds, and four Rebels scored in double digits.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss’ 33 free throws attempted

Mississippi State (78) vs. Murray State (61): As this game was never in question, the Bulldogs managed to outplay Murray State in nearly every way. State shot 51.9% on the back of Rhodes’ 8-of-14 shooting for 22 points but shot only 26.7% from behind the arc. Gordon and Stewart combined for 29 points, and Varnado grabbed 7 rebounds and blocked three shots.
Stat of the Game: State’s 34-25 rebounding advantage

Vanderbilt (92) vs. Georgia Tech (79): I’m beginning to believe in the Commodores. Four Vandy players scored in double-digits in this relatively high-profile matchup, as Shan Foster led the game with 17 points. Vanderbilt outshot Tech and had an impressive 20 assists.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 10-of-22 (45.5%) mark from three

Monday Odds

Arkansas vs. Missouri State
Spread: Arkansas by 12.5
Pick: Missouri State – This should be a difficult matchup for the Razorbacks.

Also picking: Florida over Jacksonville at home and Georgia over Augusta State at home.

Wednesday and Thursday games, Friday odds..

Overall: 46-8 (85%)
Vs. Spread: 16-9 (64%)

Wednesday

Arkansas (94) vs. Missouri (91): Well, I was wrong both about who would win and a low-scoring game. Missouri forced their tempo but the Razorbacks kept up, shooting 57.6% as a team. Both Charles Thomas and – guess who – Patrick Beverly had big games, scoring 21 and 19 points on a collective 15-of-28 effort. Beverly has only failed to score in double digits once this season.
Stat of the Game: Missouri’s 8-of-23 shooting from behind the arc

Alabama (63) @ Texas A&M (76): Despite Hendrix scoring his fifth consecutive double-double in five games for 19 points and 12 rebounds, along with Alonzo Gee chipping in 19 of his own on 9-of-17 shooting, the Tide couldn’t stop A&M’s offense nor their rebounding although they did win the turnover battle 18-13.
Stat of the Game: A&M’s 52.8% mark from the floor

Georgia (58) vs. Deleware State (47): The Bulldogs relied heavily on junior Billy Humphrey, and he came through scoring 18 points on a team-high 10 shots taken. Freshman Troy Brewer also had his first double-figure outing of his Georgia career, scoring 12 points on 4-of-6 shooting from behind the arc. Sundiata Gaines proved his worth with 8 turnovers to 1 turnover. This game was a little closer than I would have expected considering Georgia’s quick start, but DSU managed to shoot 12 times more than the home team by only turning the ball over eight times and outrebounding them by two.
Stat of the Game: DSU’s 4-of-21 (19%) shooting from three

South Carolina (92) vs. Campbell (52): Complete domination as it should be with Campbell against an SEC team at home, although the Fighting Camels managed to outrebound the Gamecocks by two. Both Downey and Raley-Ross scored 20 points for USC in the blowout and freshman Sam Muldrow III had a nice five blocks.
Stat of the Game: Campbell’s 21 turnovers to USC’s 11

LSU (69) vs. Nicholls State (43): Although this was a blowout, the Tigers struggled early. Marcus Thornton scored 24 for his fourth 20+ point showing in six games and LSU outrebounded NSU a commanding 38-25. And even against a team like Nicholls State, LSU still lost the turnover battle 21-19, showing their lack of control on offense.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 52.1% field goal percentage

Thursday

Vanderbilt (91) vs. South Alabama (88): The Commodores finally pulled away in the second overtime in this thriller, as Shan Foster had his biggest night of the young season with 26 points, although he shot the ball 21 times – more than twice the attempts of any other player. Ogilvy shot 7-of-10 and had eight rebounds, while freshman Jermaine Beal dished out 7 assists to only 3 turnovers. The game’s result was not surprising, as Vanderbilt is suddenly being hyped and is slightly overrated and USA is excellently coached.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 81.8% mark from the charity stripe

Friday Odds

Tennessee vs. LA Lafayette
Spread: Tennessee by 27.5
Pick: LA Lafayette – Although Tennessee will win with no question, LA Lafayette finds ways to stay competitive in away game situations.

Also picking: Florida over Vermont at home.

Tuesday games, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 42-7 (86%)
Vs. Spread: 15-9 (63%)

Ole Miss (102) vs. Troy (76): The Rebels are playing some potent offense, as they’ve scored no less than 94 points except once, when they scored “only” 81 on South Alabama. The Rebels took an amazing 93 shots compared to Troy’s still-substantial 79, and freshman Chris Warren has scored in double figures in every one of those – including 23 points tonight on 8-of-14 shooting along with 10 assists for his first career double-double. The Rebels also had an amazing three players with double-doubles, as Dwayne Curtis scored 17 points and 10 rebounds while Kenny Williams scored 10 points and 13 rebounds.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss’ 58-40 rebound advantage

Kentucky (62) vs. Stony Brook (52): This score is about as shocking as the Gardner-Webb loss. The Wildcats won by only 10 over a team that is 0-6 on the year thus far and has a loss to freakin’ Maryland-Eastern Shore, for god’s sakes. What the hell is going on? Well, for one – Kentucky’s guards are thin with injuries abound, and the ones that are on the roster aren’t hitting their shots. The Wildcat guards shot a combined 7-of-27 for 26% from the floor and 1-of-10 from three. The only reason Kentucky pulled out this win was the combined effort of Stevenson and Patterson, who each had a double-double with 18 points 10 rebounds and 19 points 12 rebounds respectively. Those two won’t be enough for this entire team come SEC play…these kitties better start acting like the Wildcats they are or this could be a very long season.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 23 turnovers

Florida (102) vs. Stetson (51): The Gators continuet to be red-hot from the field on a well-balanced attack. This time no player scored more than 15, and only one other in double digits, and every player scored at least 3. Calathes didn’t have the best game after impressing thus far, as he turned the ball over 7 times.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 54% field goal percentage, and 42.9% from three

Tennessee (93) vs. N.C. A&T (59): Apparently the Volunteers decided to let Lofton shoot his way back into his groove. It seemed to work decently, as Lofton hit 8 of an obscene 21 shots attempted, all but one of those from three. Not great, still – and not All-America worthy – but decent. Tyler Smith looks to be a reliable source down low, as he shot a perfect 7-of-7 from the floor for 17 points and grabbed 12 rebounds for his first double-double as a Vol.
Stat of the Game: N.C. A&T’s 2-of-18 shooting for 11.1% from three

Wednesday Odds

Arkansas vs. Missouri
Spread: Arkansas by 4.5
Pick: Missouri – I actually think Missouri will win this game. The Razorbacks are just too susceptible to turning the ball over and the Tigers’ pressing style is too good at forcing them. Look for this to be a low-scoring event.

Alabama @ Texas A&M
Spread: Texas A&M by 13
Pick: Texas A&M – This game is going to get ugly. As talented as he is, Hendrix won’t be enough to keep this one even remotely close.

Also picking: Georgia over Deleware State at home, South Carolina over Campbell at home, and LSU over Nicholls State at home.

Monday and Wednesday games…

Overall: 29-4 (88%)
Vs. Spread: 12-6 (67%)

I’m starting a new feature for each game called the “Stat of the Game”. This stat will be something that would otherwise go unnoticed and played a major role in the game’s outcome.

Monday

Alabama (83) vs. Belmont (85): No statistic jumps out and explains how Belmont beat the Tide on their home floor. Don’t get me wrong – the Bruins are a tough ball club – but SEC teams are expected to win games like this on their home floor. Belmont shot better from behind the arc, but only by a small margin (35.5% vs. 30.4%) and slightly better from the charity stripe. Hendrix was his typical dominating self, scoring 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting and grabbing 10 rebounds for his third-straight double-double in as many games, and Alonzo Gee fell one rebound short of a double-double with 13 points and 9 rebounds. Alabama’s defense cost them the game, as they allowed Belmont to shoot 48.5% from the floor.
Stat of the Game: Belmont’s 11 made three-pointers

Auburn (89) @ Charleston Southern (59): Five Tigers scored in double figures in the blowout, as their hot shooting gave the the easy win. They did, however, get outrebounded 38-34 and out-shot 65-63. Rasheem Barrett was the star of the game, scoring 25 points on 10-of-13 shooting.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 16 steals vs. CSU’s 4

LSU (77) vs. Oklahoma State (83): The stats were strangely similar as both teams shot very well, but OSU got five more off. LSU has little depth, and it is obvious in the stats as four players scored in double figures but noone else contributed more than a combined 11. Thornton’s stats have been impressive thus far, as he scored 20 on this contest at a 42.9% clip.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 26 turnovers

No odds for tomorrow’s games, but I’m picking…LSU over Arizona State in a close one and Kentucky at home in a blowout over Liberty (once upon a time this would be a no-brainer…).

Monday and Tuesday games…

Overall: 17-2 (89%)
Vs. Spread: 8-4 (67%)

Monday

LSU (72) vs. Southeastern Louisiana (62): Marcus Thornton, a transfer from Kilgore College, lit up the Lions for 27 points on 8-of-14 shooting from the field, including 4-of-7 from long range. The #12 recruit coming into this year, Anthony Randolph went for 19 points, 13 rebounds, and an impressive 6 blocks. The team’s three-point shooting could have been better (37.5%) but wasn’t abysmal, which is an improvement on last season. The narrow 10-point can be credited to the Tigers’ being outrebounded 36-26. How many SEC schools have been outrebounded by lesser competition thus far?

South Carolina (103) vs. The Citadel (42): The score really should tell it all. Six Gamecocks scored in double figures, and Devan Downey – who has impressed thus far – recorded the only double-double of the game with 11 points and 11 assists. Compare that to only two turnovers, and that’s one impressive stat. USC attempted 71 shots and made 52.1% of them, including 50% of their attempted threes. The Citadel was outmatched, as I suspected, from the beginning.

Tuesday

Vanderbilt (77) @ Toledo (70): This game went pretty much exactly as I expected. Toledo was competitive, but couldn’t match up against the SEC’s talent when it came to crunch time. Two Commodores went for 20+ points: Shan Foster with 21 along with 8 rebounds, and A.J. Ogilvy (who is constantly trying to prove me wrong) with 20 points on 9-of-12 shooting but only 4 rebounds. Vandy shot an impressive 58.3% from the field, but was outrebounded by one.

Ole Miss (81) vs. South Alabama (78): I knew this set up to be a great game. Ronnie Arrow and Andy Kennedy are both excellent floor coaches, and naturally the game came down to three points. One of only two returning Rebels, Eniel Polynice recorded 28 points on 10-of-17 shooting including a crazy-good 7-of-12 from behind the arc. The Jaguars’ returning standout Demetric Bennett also pulled down 28 points and hit 6-of-12 from three.

Alabama (90) @ Mercer (83): Mercer was competitive, but simply couldn’t pull down the rebounds against Hendrix and Jemison to finish the job. Hendrix – one of the most underrated big men in the country – notched 28 points and 14 rebounds, while taking 15 shots from the floor and hitting 11 of them. The Tide outrebounded Mercer badly, 44-28, and overcame five Mercer squad members scoring in double digits.

Auburn (74) vs. Kennesaw State (62): This game was surprisingly close. Kennesaw State’s Ronell Wooten hit 9-of-16 shots to score 23 while the Tigers brought a more balanced scoring attack: six Tigers scored in double digits, none more than twelve and none less than ten. Auburn shot well, hitting 58% of their shots.

No odds were released for Wednesday’s SEC matchups.

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 12-1 (92%)
Vs. Spread: 5-4 (56%)

Vanderbilt @ Toledo
Spread: Vanderbilt by 4
Pick: Vanderbilt – Although this should be a competitive game, Toledo should fall short of Vanderbilt’s talent-level later in the game.

Ole Miss vs. South Alabama
Spread: Ole Miss by 9.5
Pick: South Alabama – I figure this game should be very close to the given spread, but USA will be coached by Ronnie Brown and will be competitive.

Alabama @ Mercer
Spread: Off the table.

Auburn vs. Kennesaw State
Spread: Off the table.

I’m disappointed Alabama @ Mercer isn’t available…should be an interesting game.

Week Two predictions…

Overall: 12-1 (92%)
Vs. Spread: 5-4 (56%)

Alabama

Tuesday, Nov. 13: Alabama (71) @ Mercer (75)

I’m taking the upset here, with a now-scary-looking Mercer team at home. I’d have taken the Tide if they were at home, but Mercer’s James Florence (who scored 30 on USC) is too dynamic for any of the Bama guards to stop him. Hendrix will have a big game, but I’m suspecting it won’t be enough to stop Mercer at home.

Arkansas

Thursday, Nov. 15: Arkansas (75) vs. College of Charleston (50)

Although CoC has some hot freshman – Andrew Goudelock scored 27 points in his debut – they have very little experience and won’t compete heavily on the road with Arkansas’ shut-down defense.

Auburn

Tuesday, Nov. 13: Auburn (73) vs. Kennesaw State (56)

Auburn will get things a little better organaized and look decent in this game. Look for Quantez Robertson to approach a points/assists double-double.

Friday, Nov. 16: Auburn (65) @ Alabama State (54)

This game could get ugly. Auburn should win with relative ease, but the shooting won’t be great.

Florida

Wednesday, Nov. 14: Florida (87) vs. North Carolina Central (59)

UNC-Central will get handled from the beginning and the Gators’ shooting will continue to be red-hot.

Saturday, Nov. 17: Florida (78) vs. Rutgers (56)

Rutgers won’t look as out-matched, but will lose with ease.

Georgia

Wednesday, Nov. 14: Georgia (81) vs. Grambling State (65)

The Tigers return four starters and are an offensive-oriented team capable of competing for the SWAC crown this season. Look for GSU to compete early but fall too far back in the last half to overcome.

LSU

Monday, Nov. 12: LSU (75) vs. Southeastern Louisiana (54)

LSU will turn the ball over 20+ times, but still win easily with SELA returning very little experience.

Wednesday, Nov. 14: LSU (77) vs. McNeese State (61)

The Cowboys will actually make this a competitive game for the majority of the contest but will eventually get out-hustled by the Tigers.

Mississippi State

Thursday, Nov. 15: Miss. State (68) vs. Clemson (60)

Both the Tigers and Bulldogs rely heavily on their defense. Clemson returns an impressive amount of experience, but their consistently-poor free-throw shooting will fail them late as State pulls away.

Saturday, Nov. 17: Miss. State (80) vs. Tennessee-Martin (57)

UT-Martin will be feeding their only returning starter Gerald Robnson every given opportunity, which could mean double-figure blocking for State’s human fly-swatter Jarvis Varnado.

Ole Miss

Tuesday, Nov. 13: Ole Miss (83) vs. South Alabama (74)

Although I’ll go on record as saying Ronnie Arrow is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation, Kennedy isn’t bad himself. This overlooked battle of coaching ability should end the Rebels’ way, although I don’t see USA getting blown out.

Friday, Nov. 16: Ole Miss (87) vs. Lamar (65)

Although the rebuilding process is coming along for the Cardinals, Kennedy’s SEC talent will out-match Lamar.

South Carolina

Monday, Nov. 12: South Carolina (85) vs. The Citadel (49)

The Citadel returns two starters from a 7-win team. This one won’t be close.

Saturday, Nov. 17: South Carolina (77) vs. USC (83)

This will be one of the most exciting games to watch all week. Mayo won’t have a problem playing away from home, but the Gamecocks won’t have an answer for him defensively and it will cost them the game late.

Tennessee

Wednesday, Nov. 14: Tennessee (106) vs. Arkansas-Monticello (46)

Ouch. Lofton will regain his stroke.

Friday, Nov. 16: Tennessee (110) vs. Prairie View A&M (57)

And why is Tennessee in this tournament again?

Vanderbilt

Tuesday, Nov. 13: Vanderbilt (74) @ Toledo (62)

Toledo was competitive last year, winning 22 games, but doesn’t return enough talent or experience to defeat the Commodores. With that said, the game shouldn’t get too out of hand.

Friday SEC games over…

Overall: 8-1 (89%)
Vs. Spread: 4-2 (67%)

Alabama (84) vs. Troy (72): I was right about “Hendrix covering the spread” as he scored over 20 points – 22 to be exact – but the Tide was a turnover machine tonight, turning the ball over 25 times compared to Troy’s 15. The Trojans also out-rebounded a typically-physical Alabama team a ridiculous 57-34. Despite shooting 50.7% from the floor while holding Troy to 32.5%, Alabama simply couldn’t hold on to the ball long enough to take enough shots. Ah, the costs of playing a guard-heavy lineup. With an arsenal from three like Gottfried has accumulated, 20% from long-range isn’t going to cut it. If the Tide can’t find some rebounding and their touch from behind the arc, they could be in for a long season.

Arkansas (67) vs. Wofford (45): Interesting that despite Pelphrey’s supposed “high-tempo” style, the Razorbacks took only 54 shots, hitting them at a 48.1% rate. The SEC’s returning Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly led all scorers with 15 but only shot 5-of-12 from the field and 2-of-7 from long range. As a whole, Arkansas shot an abysmal 3-of-18 from behind the arc, good for only 16.7%. The impressive stat, however, was 11 – the number of blocks the team notched, led by senior center Darian Townes’s five.

Auburn (62) @ Tulane (77): Although the available stats on this game are few and far between, I was able to see both Barber and Robertson fouled out of the game, which would lend a tremendous advantage to the Green Wave. Tulane’s scoring was commendably balanced with no player scoring more than 12 points and seven with more than eight. Also noticeable was the Tiger’s horrendous effort from the free throw line…13-of-27, or 48.1%. Wow.

Florida (75) vs. North Dakota State (65): The previous commenter was correct, NDSU gave the Gators a run for their money. Both teams played well, but the Gators’ shooting touch lifted them to the ten-point advantage. Florida shot 53.4% (31-of-58) from the floor and an impressive 60% (6-of-10) from behind the arc. All-American Nick Calathes had a big debut, scoring 21 points on a 8-of-15 effort from the floor. One of few returning players, Hodge pitched in 15 of his own.

Georgia (107) vs. Jacksonville State (65): Two Bulldogs recorded double-doubles in the relatively surprising blowout of Jacksonville State. Rashaad Singleton led Georgia with an 8-of-11 performance from the floor to score 16 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and was only three blocks shy of a triple-double. Seven blocks against a Division 1-A opponent is impressive, folks. Jeremy Jacob also scored 13 points and notched 10 rebounds. Freshman Zac Swansey was impressive in his debut, dishing out 10 assists against only three turnovers. Although Felton’s Dawgs scored 107 points, the team only shot 25% from behind the arc. Despite that, the team hit 54.4% of their shots from the floor. Not too bad, seems as if the team is meshing together very well despite the losses of Brown and Mercer.

South Carolina (92) vs. South Carolina State (67): Devan Downey exploded for the Gamecocks, scoring 24 points on 10-of-19 shooting and dishing out 7 assists. Odom’s team shot an excellent 55.6% from three, but got out-rebounded 41-36. As long as you can outscore your opponent, no need to rebound. Also of note was a horrible 50% mark from the charity stripe and an excellent 21 assists as a team.

Tennessee (80) vs. Temple (63): Not many would call scoring 80 points on the low side, but I expected this game to be much more high-tempo than it was. First-team All-American Chris Lofton had a terrible night, shooting 1-of-8 overall and 0-5 from the arc. He did, however, his 8-of-8 free throws to score 10 points. As a whole, the Vols only managed 27.3% from three – and this is a team that can shoot it. Guess it’s not bad to perform so poorly in your area of strength and still put up 80 points. Jujuan Smith led the Volunteers with 15 points and five steals.

So there ya have it. Not a bad showing for me, if I do say so myself. Let’s see if I can keep it up…

Friday odds…

Overall: 1-1
Vs. Spread: 1-0

And finally we begin the bulk of the conference’s non-conference slate. Some relatively decent matchups, with Auburn @ Tulane the most intruiging in my mind. Can Auburn find the points? Here are my predictions on tomorrow’s games versus the spread. 

Alabama vs. Troy
Spread: Alabama by 20
Pick: Alabama – Hendrix will cover the spread on his own.

Arkansas vs. Wofford
Spread: Arkansas by 24.5
Pick: Wofford – Wofford has the players to compete with Arkansas for most of the game as long as they can keep their touch from the arc. The Razorbacks would dominate an inside-oriented game, however.

Auburn @ Tulane
Spread: Auburn by 1
Pick: Tulane – This is an enormously challenging pick, but I still believe Tulane pulls the game out. Auburn just lost too much due to suspension/injury.

Florida vs. North Dakota State
Spread: Off the table

Georgia vs. Jacksonville State
Spread: Georgia by 19.5
Pick: Jacksonville State – With Mercer or Brown, this would be a UGA pick easily. The rust should prevent the Dawgs from winning by 20+.

South Carolina vs. South Carolina State
Spread: Off the table

Tennessee vs. Temple
Spread: Tennessee by 15
Pick: Tennessee – This game will be an up-tempo style, which falls directly into the hands of the Volunteers. As long as the Vols don’t go cold, they should cover this spread with relative ease.

And now we watch.

2007-2008 Preseason All-SEC First Team

Now we move on to the A-listers…

All-SEC First Team

Chris Lofton (Tennessee – Shot Guard – Senior – 20.8ppg, 3.1rpg, 1.4spg) – Lofton is easily the best pure shooter in the nation, and a contender for National Player of the Year. The SEC Player of the Year and an All-American a year ago, there is no reason why Lofton shouldn’t continue to improve both his shot and all-around game during his last year as a Volunteer. Despite suffering a short-lived ankle sprain last season, Lofton shot an SEC-leading 41.9% from behind the arc and also added the drive-and-dish to his arsenal. The only negative concerning Lofton is the Vols’ reliance upon him. If the team can avoid becoming too uni-dimensional, Lofton could shoot Tennessee to a National Championship.

Jamont Gordon (Miss. State – Point Guard – Junior – 16.0ppg, 7.1rpg, 5.3apg) – Not many point guards in the nation average 7.1 rebounds per game. The question is, are the Bulldogs relying too heavily on Gordon to supply them or does it come natural? Regardless, Gordon is built like a power forward but has the passing and dribbling abilities of a point. Because of his size, athleticism, and talent, Gordon is a mis-match against both guards and forwards. If the Tennessee-native can continue to improve his assist-to-turnover ratio as he did late last season, Gordon could very well make a case for National Player of the Year.

Shan Foster (Vanderbilt – Power Forward – Senior – 15.6ppg, 4.6rpg, 2.2apg) – Foster is a stereotypical do-everything power guard. He shoots decently from behind the arc (34.6%), but his jumpers are almost impossible to defend with his hands-behind-the-head release. His rebounding numbers will need to improve to truly step up and be the go-to guy the Commodores will need him to be, but Foster has more than enough ability to do it.

Richard Hendrix (Alabama – Power Forward – Junior – 14.6ppg, 8.7rpg, 1.2bpg) – The fact that Hendrix is only a junior is nothing short of scary. One of the most overlooked big men in the country, Hendrix averaged 14.6ppg last season despite playing behind fellow Tide standout Jermareo Davidson. Hendrix will be forced to make up for a lack of experienced inside depth this season, and thus his numbers should explode. If Hendrix can maintain his SEC-best 60.2% field goal percentage and avoid injury, he should be recognized by season’s end as one of the best under-the-basket players in the nation.

Patrick Beverly (Arkansas – Shot Guard – Sophomore – 13.9ppg, 4.5rpg, 3.1apg) – The lone underclassman to make first team, Beverly earned it – and a reputation as an unstoppable shooter – by shooting 38.6% from behind the arc to average nearly 14ppg to lead all SEC freshmen in scoring . One of the best pure shooters in his class, and last season’s SEC Freshman of the Year, Beverly must now focus on improving his already-impressive ball-handling abilities and become more accurate on his shot. Also wise would be to leave the rebounds to Arkansas’ stable of great big men and instead get down-court for the quick transition basket…something I’m sure Pelphrey has mentioned to him. Beverly is a fierce competitor and looks to be one of the conference’s best shooters both this coming season and two to come.

But which wins the coveted SEC:GBD 2007-2008 SEC Player of the Year? Stay tuned…

Updated alabama prediction…

With the loss of Steele, I am going to go back and alter some predictions to more accurately predict Alabama’s (and their opponents’) record.

Ronald Steele to redshirt…

Alabama senior-to-be and former first-team All-American Ronald Steele will redshirt this season and play his senior season with his brother, Andrew.

This will provide Alabama with less experience and leadership, but more potential talent and give the backups some more playing time (something Gottfried isn’t fond of).

This will bring Alabama back down to Earth, maybe a few less wins and a high NIT bid. Losing both Davidson and Steele in one season could devastate the Tide’s chances at a big season this year, but should help out tremendously next season, when both State and Arkansas are looking to lose a serious amount of talent and experience.

Schedule Breakdown: Alabama

Here’s how it will work. The schedule will be listed again, this time a complete schedule with all the SEC games, with wins being bolded and losses being italicized. None of those sissy “toss-up” games…I’ll call it either a “W” or an “L”. At the end, you’ll see a total for regular-season wins and losses, as well as SEC wins and losses predicted.

With that said, I’ll work down the list of SEC schools alphabetically, meaning Alabama is first! Here goes.

vs. Troy
@ Mercer
vs. Belmont
vs. Southern Mississippi
@ Texas A&M
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
vs. Georgetown – Birmingham, AL
vs. Nicholls State
vs. Wofford
vs. Texas Pan American
vs. Missouri State – Las Vegas, NV
vs. Purdue or Iowa State – Las Vegas, NV
vs. George Washington
vs. Clemson
vs. Chicago State
——————————————–
vs. Florida
@ Arkansas
@ Georgia
vs. Mississippi State
vs. Auburn
vs. Tennessee
vs. LSU
@ Mississippi State
@ Kentucky
vs. Ole Miss
@ South Carolina
@ Auburn
vs. Arkansas
@ Ole Miss
@ LSU
vs. Vanderbilt

This would put the Crimson Tide at (19-12) and (7-9). That would put Alabama just outside the NCAA bubble, with a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT.

Next up: Arkansas.

Alabama releases schedule…

Here’s who the Tide will be playing…

vs. Troy
@ Mercer
vs. Belmont
vs. Southern Mississippi
@ Texas A&M
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
vs. Georgetown – Birmingham, AL
vs. Nicholls State
vs. Wofford
vs. Texas Pan American
vs. Missouri State – Las Vegas, NV
vs. Purdue or Iowa State – Las Vegas, NV
vs. George Washington
vs. Clemson
vs. Chicago State
————————–
vs. Florida
vs. Tennessee
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Georgia
@ Kentucky
@ South Carolina

Gottfried has pieced together a solid schedule for the upcomimg campaign. Two true road games is acceptable, plus a decent assumed matchup in the finals of the Las Vegas tournament. A trip to College Station will be an intruiging matchup of possible Top 25 teams, and Georgetown/Clemson will both be challenging games.

The Tide’s schedule versus the East doesn’t favor them very much, with trips to both Georgia and Kentucky on the horizon. Hosting SEC-title-favorite Tennessee will help tremendously, as that game is a must-win for Alabama to seriously challenge the Vols.

Only waiting on two now, Arkansas and Mississippi State.

Link now working…

http://collegehoopsnet.com/new/story/alabama_the_nations_most_overrated_team

That’s where you can find the bold – and accurate – prediction from last season.