Aggressive underneath…

Now we’ve made it to minutes per free throws attempted. This again should be dominated by forwards and aggressive guards. However, the main difference here is that free throw percentages aren’t as relevant, but instead the turnover rate is key. This category measures how aggressive these players are in the paint and if this aggression is working in their favor by free throw attempts heavily outweighing their number of turnovers.

MINUTES PER FREE THROWS ATTEMPTED

While the aim is for this number to be low, it’s best combined with a solid free throw percentage and low turnover rate.

1. A.J. Ogilvy, Vanderbilt (3.9) – As if this phenomenal freshman hadn’t done enough, he leads yet another statistical category, this time in how often he gets to the stripe. His aggression and assertiveness under the basket is unmatched offensively, and he improves upon that with a very solid 76.9% touch – although his 10.5 m/to rate could be improved upon.

2. Elgin Bailey, Mississippi State (5.2) – Bailey seems to have a lot of potential under the basket, with solid shooting percentages and rebounding figures as a freshman. His aggression in the paint, however, goes unrewarded as he hit an absolutely abysmal 39.0% from the stripe with 41 attempts (he hits a much better 47.4% from the field). If Bailey wants to step into the shoes of graduating forward Charles Rhodes, he absolutely must improve from the charity stripe.

3. Cameron Tatum, Tennessee (5.3) – Very similar to Bailey but with much less playing time is Tatum, who shot well from the field but managed just a 42.9% effort from the free throw line in 14 attempts. Similarly, he must improve that stroke before he looks to contribute for the Vols. A 9.3 m/to rate also should improve.

4. Korvotney Barber, Auburn (5.6) – Shockingly, Barber is the 3rd out of the top 4 in this category to shoot less than 45% from the free throw line (43.8%), although Barber’s misses made a much larger impact on his team, as he started 29 of 32 games for the Tigers. Auburn simply doesn’t have a choice, with limited options inside., although his 11.5 m/to ratio is at least decent.

5. J.P. Prince, Tennessee (5.8) – Although his shooting touch is still terrible at 55.7%, Prince’s m/to rate is an acceptable 11.3 and his touch from the field is a solid 49.7% – especially for a guard. Prince should continue to improve his free throw shooting and outside mark (15.4%) if the Vols are to seriously filter him into the starting lineup.

6. Nick Calathes, Florida (5.9) – Calathes is simply beneficial to his team regardless of what he is doing. Included is his knack for attacking the lane and drawing fouls, shooting 72.4% from the charity stripe as a freshman. This dynamic guard should join A.J. Ogilvy as preseason SEC Player of the Year favorites.

7. Zach Graham, Ole Miss (6.3) – The third-straight guard in the category, Graham would have been an absolute star if he had started every game last season, with incredible numbers from long range (43.3%) and his aggressive floor-play. A 13.9 m/to ratio is also impressive for a freshman guard.

8. Tyler Smith, Tennessee (6.4) – Smith, possibly the most dynamic player in the conference, got to the line 160 times and hit 70.6% of those shots. His 11.3 m/to ratio is especially impressive considering the amount of time in which he handled the ball.

8. Alonzo Gee, Alabama (6.4) – Gee’s touch from the charity stripe is far from impressive for a guard (67.9%), but his 15.8 m/to ratio is excellent considering his role as perhaps the most aggressive player in the conference.

10. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU (6.6) – Mitchell only saw three games, but excelled in those games from the free throw stripe, hitting 8 of 10 of his attempts. However, his ball-handling was nothing short of poor, as he turned the ball over every 7.3 minutes. In perspective, he would have given the ball up an average of five times if he had played 40 full minutes.

Not too much surprising on this front, as few would argue that these 10 players are the most aggressive in the conference. Some to their remorse, and others to their own benefit. To coaches, it’s absolutely vital for a player with lots of talent and potential to get to the basket, while those who only think they have that talent should know when to back off.

Next, we move on to the ever-important rebounding category with minutes per rebound.

Wednesday games…

(12-9, 2-6) Auburn [63] vs. (11-9, 5-2) Kentucky [66]: Both teams’ lack of depth was miserably evident in this game, as only six players managed to score for either team. After a late surge, the Auburn Tigers fell three points short in the final seconds to drop to 2-6. Each team had a 20-point scorer, as Crawford was Kentucky’s leader on 8-of-12 shooting, 5 rebounds, but 6 turnovers. Patterson was only a point behind with 19 on 8-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds against a height-challenged Tiger team. Prowell put up 20 for Auburn and fell just a rebound shy of a double-double. Interestingly, the game’s combined number of rebounds was only 44 – a number easily matched by teams such as Arkansas, MSU, and Tennessee in a single game.
Impact [Auburn]: A 6-2 mark will ne necessary from here on out for any serious post-season consideration, which effectively has eliminated the Tigers from contention for nearly anything meaningful outside of a SEC Tournament run.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats have certainly picked up their game as of late, but will it be too little too late? A NCAA bid would need a miracle run, but the ‘Cats have the talent to make it…but do they have the depth?
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s wildly hot 66.7% shooting

(11-9, 2-5) Georgia [59] vs. (19-4, 4-4) #23 Vanderbilt [67]: Although Vandy’s hot hand from behind the arc cooled a good bit, the Bulldogs couldn’t take advantage of it down the stretch, including just a 52.6% mark from the charity stripe. Vanderbilt’s scoring was very well-balanced, as four players scored between 12 and 14 points, led by Gordon’s 4-of-8 shooting from three. Ogilvy put up 12 points on 3-of-9 shooting (very poor for an inside man), 6 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Gaines and Price each contributed 16 for Georgia on a combined 12-of-22 shooting performance, while Gaines added 11 rebounds for third double-double of the season.
Impact [Georgia]: If the Bulldogs were to compete for a post-season bid, they would need to win their home games against a suspiciously overrated Vanderbilt team.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: After falling solidly out of the race for the Eastern Division, the Commodores are pretty close to a lock for the NCAA Tournament barring a winless remainder of the season.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s +6 turnover margin

(15-7, 6-2) Mississppi State [73] vs. (13-10, 2-6) Alabama [66]: The sweep proved more difficult for the Bulldogs than expected, as the visiting Crimson Tide tried several times late in the game to regain the lead. MSU was surprisingly below average (as compared to absolutely horrendous) from the charity stripe, as Alabama was typically miserable. Two Bulldogs scored 17 points in Gordon and Rhodes and a combined 15 rebounds. Gordon also handed out 10 assists and only turned the ball over 1 time. Gee led Alabama scorers with 16 points, but was held to 4-of-18 shooting and five rebounds and four other Tide player scored in double digits.
Impact [Miss. State]: With Arkansas not playing mid-week, State now leads the West by a game. Winning on the road at Auburn will be a must to set up the Arkansas at MSU game to practically define the Western Division championship.
Impact [Alabama]: This could serve as a small moral victory, but the Tide seem to be floundering at the moment. Any post-season play seems highly unlikely at the moment.
Stat of the Game: MSU shooting 11.9% better than Alabama

Saturday odds…

Overall: 108-23 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 43-37 (53.8%)
Overall (SEC): 15-5 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 10-10 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(8-9, 2-2) Kentucky [#143] vs. (9-9, 1-3) South Carolina [#109]
Spread: Kentucky by 7.5
Pick: Kentucky – The Wildcats seem to be improving drastically, although the Gamecocks are more competitive recently as well.
—Keys: If the Wildcat guards can continue their recent offensive performance, the team’s defense should be able to contain USC. Look for Bradley and Crawford’s performances to determine Kentucky’s success.

(11-8, 0-4) Alabama [#113] vs. (12-5, 2-2) Auburn [#128]
Spread: Alabama by 10.5
Pick: Auburn – The Tigers are a very experienced squad, and thus the “road factor” should be at a minimum. The Tide are floundering, but should be able to pull out a close home win.
—Keys: Watch for the turnovers. Alabama is somewhat susceptible to turning the ball over and the Tigers force a ton of them. If the Tigers stay hot from the field and force a high number of turnovers, they have a chance of winning the game.

(13-5, 4-0) Mississippi State [#73] vs. (15-2, 2-2) #15 Ole Miss [#12]
Spread: Miss. State by 5.5
Pick: Mississippi State – The Rebels aren’t playing well on the road thus far in the SEC, and MSU is one of the hottest teams in the conference.
—Keys: According to the Wirth Value, this game matches up the SEC’s #2 offense against the #1 defense. Usually in these radical opposites, the home team wins the battle. Look for the Curtis/Varnado matchup to define the outcome.

(16-2, 3-1) #3 Tennessee [#1] vs. (11-5, 2-1) Georgia [#121]
Spread: Tennessee by 13.5
Pick: Tennessee – The Bulldogs don’t have the talent or depth to keep this one close.
—Keys: Georgia will need to defend the three well to have a chance in this game.

(7-11, 0-4) LSU [#201] vs. (13-5, 2-2) Arkansas [#41]
Spread: Arkansas by 4.5
Pick: Arkansas – Although the Razorbacks tend to choke on the road (see; Auburn), LSU is simply awful.
—Keys: Will the Tigers be able to find any offense against the SEC’s #2 defense?

Monday and Tuesday games…

Overall: 17-2 (89%)
Vs. Spread: 8-4 (67%)

Monday

LSU (72) vs. Southeastern Louisiana (62): Marcus Thornton, a transfer from Kilgore College, lit up the Lions for 27 points on 8-of-14 shooting from the field, including 4-of-7 from long range. The #12 recruit coming into this year, Anthony Randolph went for 19 points, 13 rebounds, and an impressive 6 blocks. The team’s three-point shooting could have been better (37.5%) but wasn’t abysmal, which is an improvement on last season. The narrow 10-point can be credited to the Tigers’ being outrebounded 36-26. How many SEC schools have been outrebounded by lesser competition thus far?

South Carolina (103) vs. The Citadel (42): The score really should tell it all. Six Gamecocks scored in double figures, and Devan Downey – who has impressed thus far – recorded the only double-double of the game with 11 points and 11 assists. Compare that to only two turnovers, and that’s one impressive stat. USC attempted 71 shots and made 52.1% of them, including 50% of their attempted threes. The Citadel was outmatched, as I suspected, from the beginning.

Tuesday

Vanderbilt (77) @ Toledo (70): This game went pretty much exactly as I expected. Toledo was competitive, but couldn’t match up against the SEC’s talent when it came to crunch time. Two Commodores went for 20+ points: Shan Foster with 21 along with 8 rebounds, and A.J. Ogilvy (who is constantly trying to prove me wrong) with 20 points on 9-of-12 shooting but only 4 rebounds. Vandy shot an impressive 58.3% from the field, but was outrebounded by one.

Ole Miss (81) vs. South Alabama (78): I knew this set up to be a great game. Ronnie Arrow and Andy Kennedy are both excellent floor coaches, and naturally the game came down to three points. One of only two returning Rebels, Eniel Polynice recorded 28 points on 10-of-17 shooting including a crazy-good 7-of-12 from behind the arc. The Jaguars’ returning standout Demetric Bennett also pulled down 28 points and hit 6-of-12 from three.

Alabama (90) @ Mercer (83): Mercer was competitive, but simply couldn’t pull down the rebounds against Hendrix and Jemison to finish the job. Hendrix – one of the most underrated big men in the country – notched 28 points and 14 rebounds, while taking 15 shots from the floor and hitting 11 of them. The Tide outrebounded Mercer badly, 44-28, and overcame five Mercer squad members scoring in double digits.

Auburn (74) vs. Kennesaw State (62): This game was surprisingly close. Kennesaw State’s Ronell Wooten hit 9-of-16 shots to score 23 while the Tigers brought a more balanced scoring attack: six Tigers scored in double digits, none more than twelve and none less than ten. Auburn shot well, hitting 58% of their shots.

No odds were released for Wednesday’s SEC matchups.

Tuesday odds…

Overall: 12-1 (92%)
Vs. Spread: 5-4 (56%)

Vanderbilt @ Toledo
Spread: Vanderbilt by 4
Pick: Vanderbilt – Although this should be a competitive game, Toledo should fall short of Vanderbilt’s talent-level later in the game.

Ole Miss vs. South Alabama
Spread: Ole Miss by 9.5
Pick: South Alabama – I figure this game should be very close to the given spread, but USA will be coached by Ronnie Brown and will be competitive.

Alabama @ Mercer
Spread: Off the table.

Auburn vs. Kennesaw State
Spread: Off the table.

I’m disappointed Alabama @ Mercer isn’t available…should be an interesting game.

Crews reinstated, Auburn’s turn…

After a 30-day suspension, Duke Crews has been reinstated at Tennessee. This resoldifies the Vols’ role atop the SEC, but proves Pearl is not a strict enforcer of the rules. If a kid is caught with illegal drugs on campus, expulsion should be considered – much less missing at least part of the basketball season. Crews now avoids missing a single game despite his impossibly unintelligent decision-making.

Two major contributors for Auburn’s super-experienced club have received bad news…and one of them brought it on themselves. Josh Dollard, the Tigers’ leading scorer and rebounder from last season (12.5ppg, 7.0rpg) is taking a medical redshirt for this season and will retain two years of elligibility beginning next season. Quan Prowell, who averaged 12.0ppg and 5.3rpg is suspended for five games due to a violation of team rules – Prowell was suspended the first 11 games of last season.

The loss of Dollard will leave Auburn’s already undersized “front line” even thinner, with Korvotney Barber now the only returning man with any experience under the basket. Lebo will now be forced to put either 6′9″ Heramb (1.8ppg, 1.3rpg) or France-native 7′1″ freshman Boubacar Sylla under the basket and see how things work out.

The loss of Dollard knocks Auburn out of the race for the West, furthering the gap between Arkansas/Mississippi State and the rest of the pack with Alabama losing both Davidson and Steele. The War Eagles also can effectively kiss any hope for the NCAA’s goodbye without some ingenious coaching – something Lebo isn’t exactly known for – and will again be forced to strive for the NIT’s.

2007-2008 Preseason All-SEC Second Team

As we count them down, second team is our next stop…

All-SEC Second Team

Quantez Robertson (Auburn – Point Guard – Junior – 8.2ppg, 3.9rpg, 5.0apg, 1.7spg) – An outstanding pure point, Robertson has a remarkable eye for the floor and finding the open man. Robertson finished third in the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.26, and broke Auburn’s record for assists given in a career by his sophomore season. Not a great shooter – only 30.6% from the floor last season – but Quantez is the life and soul of the Tigers’ basketball team.

Charles Rhodes (Miss. State – Power Forward – Senior – 13.7ppg, 6.2rpg, 1.8bpg) – Rhodes is an impressive big man who can dominate down low when he wants to. “When he wants to” being the operative words there. Rhodes has the potential and talent to be one of the best all-around players in the conference, but suffers greatly from a large head and a small work ethic. If Rhodes can step up his rebounding numbers and give everything he’s got, there won’t be many who can stop him.

Joe Crawford (Kentucky – Shot Guard – Senior – 14.0ppg, 4.0rpg, 2.4apg) – One of only two seniors on the Wildcat roster this season, Crawford has battled a knee injury during the offseason which slowed his conditioning and practicing. If Crawford can rebound from the knee troubles, he looks to build on last season’s conference-game surge and continue to be relied on heavily to provide points from both behind the arc and in the lane.

Takais Brown (Georgia – Forward – Senior – 14.2ppg, 5.6rpg) – A junior college transfer a year ago, Brown led the Bulldogs in scoring with a 56.6% mark from the field, third in the SEC. Brown gives Georgia a physical threat inside, of which they have been short for a good while, but could work on his effort. Brown’s potential is very high, and is a great tool for Felton to use against the more physical teams in the conference.

Barry Stewart (Miss. State – Guard – Sophomore – 9.8ppg, 3.2rpg) – Stewart ranked third in the SEC from behind the line with a 39.1% mark, and hit 41.0% in conference play….as a freshman. He also broke Mississippi State’s all-time freshman record for most three-pointers made, at 68. Stewart also handled and distributed the ball excellently, recording a 1.59 – and 2.00 in conference – assist-to-turnover ratio. Known as “ice-cold Barry”, Stewart could be one of the best pure shooters in the league as he matures and gains confidence.

And coming up….All-SEC First Team.

I don’t condone unlawful behavior, but…

if you’re going to get in trouble with the police, this is a badass way to do it…

Basically, Frank Tolbert – a starting guard and one of three seniors on the Auburn basketball team – broke into an impound and stole his Tahoe back…and drove through the fence in which it was held.

Now, this is certainly unacceptable behavior. No doubt to that one. But, it’s humorous and certainly one of the less harmful ways to get into trouble.

Auburn’s season would certainly take a hit if Tolbert were to be suspended for any length of time, but I don’t suspect that to be the case. Insteresting story, though.

Schedule Breakdown: Auburn

Predicted wins and losses, with wins in bold and losses italicized.

@ Tulane
vs. Kennesaw State
@ Alabama State
@ Charleston Southern
vs. George Washington – BB&T Classic (Washington D.C.)
vs. West Virginia – Big East vs. SEC Invitational (Birmingham, AL)
vs. Southern – Coors Classic (Mobile, AL)
vs. Mercer
vs. Alabama A&M
vs. Towson
vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
vs. Xavier
——————————-
vs. Arkansas
@ Florida
@ LSU
vs. Ole Miss
vs. Presbyterian College
@ Alabama
vs. LSU
@ Vanderbilt
vs. Kentucky
vs. Mississippi State
@ Ole Miss
@ Tennessee
vs. Alabama
@ Mississippi State
vs. South Carolina
vs. Georgia
@ Arkansas

I have the Tigers at (19-10) and (8-8) for the season. This would put them just squarely on the bubble for the NCAA’s, possibly making the cut as a 10-11 seed.

Auburn releases schedule…

Here’s how it shapes up…

 @ Tulane
vs. Kennesaw State
@ Alabama State
@ Charleston Southern
vs. George Washington – BB&T Classic (Washington D.C.)
vs. West Virginia - Big East vs. SEC Invitational (Birmingham, AL)
vs. Southern – Coors Classic (Mobile, AL)
vs. Mercer
vs. Alabama A&M
vs. Towson
vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
vs. Xavier
vs. Presbyterian College
—————————————-
vs. Kentucky
vs. South Carolina
vs. Georgia
@ Florida
@ Tennessee
@ Vanderbilt

A very respectable schedule, one that should certainly challenge the Tigers before the SEC rigors without destroying their chances at a solid season. George Washington, Xavier, and West Virginia are all solidly challenging games that Lebo’s ultra-experienced group will have a shot at. But someone, please…who is Presbyterian College?!?

Auburn’s schedule versus the East isn’t too brutal, as they host Kentucky and Georgia. Trips to Florida and Tennessee will be uphill climbs, however.

We now wait only on Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt to release their schedules.