Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

Next up will be a complete and utter breakdown of every team and their SEC Tournament matchups.

Saturday Games

(16-15, 5-11) Alabama [78] vs. (25-6, 10-6) #16 Vanderbilt [73]: This game will drop the Commodores a seed or two, as the ‘Dores have a less-than-stellar 6-6 record in road/neutral courts on the year and this being arguably the worst such loss. Vanderbilt simply couldn’t find any offense against a practically non-existent Alabama defense, shooting just 38.2% from the field. Riley came up huge for the Tide, scoring a game-high 26 points on 6-of-13 from long range and grabbing 10 boards for his second double-double of the season and Hendrix was actually outshined by Ogilvy and still put up his 16th double-double of the season with 12 points and 11 rebounds. Gee did was he does best - put up enough shots to score some points but not shoot particularly well, shooting 5-of-12 and 2-of-5 from long range for 16 points. Shan Foster came off of his 42-point blowup against Mississippi State by notching 21 in this loss, shooting 7-of-16. Ogilvy contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The postseason isn’t completely out of the question for the Tide now, if the squad could get hot and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament. That will have to go through Florida and Mississippi State, however.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a significant loss for Vanderbilt, who proved that down the stretch when it counts the most, the ‘Dores can’t win on the road - even against a lesser opponent. That will not be looked upon kindly by the selection committee, and Vandy needs to win at least a game in the SEC Tournament to counter that image. As for specifics, I’d say the Commodores fell from a 3 or 4 seed to a 5 or 6 seed with this loss.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 7-of-25 shooting from long range (28.0%)

(13-16, 4-12) Georgia [62] vs. (21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [76]: Another case of a weak defensive team suddenly holding their opponent to poor shooting, as the Rebels held Georgia to a 30.8% effort from the floor. This was a desperately-needed statement win for the Rebels, who are trying to claw their way into NCAA Tournament consideration. Now just two games under .500 in the conference, 21 wins overall, and another road win under their belt, the Rebels could very well be on the good side of the bubble. Five Rebels scored between 15 and 10 points, led by Warren and Curtis with 15. Parnell had an unusually successful game as well, notching 13 points and a team-high 7 rebounds. Woodbury led the Bulldogs with 18 points as Gaines did more harm than good by putting up 21 attempts and only hitting 5, although he did claim 7 rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little, as the postseason is out of the question for the Bulldogs without a conference tournament title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are suddenly back in the thick of the NCAA discussion after three-straight wins, including one over likely NCAA-bound Arkansas and a road win. A win in the conference tournament would likely make the Rebs a lock for the Big Dance.
Stat of the Game: Gaines’ 5-of-21 shooting (23.8%)

(21-9, 12-4) #25 Mississippi State [84] vs. (13-17, 6-10) LSU [75]: This game was closer than the Bulldogs would have liked, as the Tigers led by 1 at halftime. The ‘Dawgs did what they have been doing during the conference season, though, and found a way to win. This was also a stereotypical MSU game in terms of defense and blocking, as State did both well - swatting 10 shots as a team to capture the SEC’s single-season block record. In his last home game, senior Charles Rhodes scored a team-high 27 points and 10 rebounds as he’s been on a serious roll as of late, recording his ninth double-double of the season and second in a row. For the second game in a row, Gordon joined Rhodes in the 20+ points collumn with 23 points and 9 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, knocked away 7 shots. Marcus Thornton tried to go Shan Foster on State again, hitting three consecutive threes late in the game to pull within four, but then started missing. He finished with a tie for career-high 38 points on 6-of-12 shooting from three while Randolph notched 14 points and 10 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season.
Impact [Miss. State]: Avoiding the let-down loss was the main concern for State at this point, as a game or two in the SEC Tournament could result in a 5-seed or better.
Impact [LSU]: With the loss, the West’s four-seed is where the Tigers will fall, which is substantially better than they seemed to have been heading for just a couple of weeks ago. No postseason is possible without winning the SEC Tournament title.
Stat of the Game: The league’s three top shot-blockers in action: Varnado (7), Johnson (1), and Randolph (1)

(20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [77] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [64]: This game appeared to be headed towards the blowout I expected at halftime, where the Razorbacks held a 45-26 lead. But some backups got minutes and the lead shrunk a bit, but this was a complete mismatch from the beginning. Arkansas destroyed the Tigers on the boards, shot remarkably well from all spots on the floor, and the ‘Backs big-men had their way inside. Beverly shot to his potential for the third-straight game, hitting 9-of-11 from the floor and 6-of-6 from behind the arc for 27 points along with grabbing 8 rebounds, while Darian Townes hit 6-of-7 shots to score 12 points and claimed a season-high 14 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Frank Tolbert was Auburn’s main offensive weapon, as he sank 7-of-12 shots, grabbed 4 rebounds, and handed out 5 assists but turned the ball over 5 times for 17 points.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks might have secured an at-large NCAA bid with this win, guaranteeing themselves a + .500 SEC record. The squad’s performance in the SEC Tournament will determine the seed, which could be as low as a 10 or 9, or as high as a 7 or 8.
Impact [Auburn]: Time to get the hands hot, because winning the conference tournament is the Tigers’ only shot at the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ big-men hitting 14-of-22 (63.6%) shots total

Sunday Games

(18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [75] vs. (21-10, 8- Florida [70]: In this crucial battle-of-the-bubble game, the Wildcats held onto their lead despite a late charge by the Gators. Surprisingly, Florida heavily outrebounded Kentucky, but succombed to their defensive prowess and showed none of their own as the ‘Cats shot very well from the floor. Kentucky’s lack of depth was apparent, as only six Wildcats scored, as Stevenson led the Blue in scoring…stepping up nicely in the abscense of Patterson. Stevenson put up 18 points on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting effort and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the campaign, needless to mention blocking 5 shots. Crawford had an off-day shooting-wise, hitting just 7-of-17 shots and 2-of-7 from three, and Bradley handed out 7 assists but turned the ball over 4 times. Speights is becoming a star for Florida, with another 20-point outing on 8-of-11 shooting and 8 rebounds, and Calathes continues to be reliable with 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting and 6 assists to just 2 turnovers. The Gators aren’t terribly deep, but are very, very talented.
Impact [Kentucky]: This is a remarkable situation, really. As of now, there simply can’t be an informed observer of the sport that would say Kentucky isn’t an NCAA-quality team. But with a questionable RPI and two terrible losses (three if you count the 40+ embarassment to Vanderbilt), will 12 SEC wins but just 18 overall wins be enough? My guess is yes, but a win against either Ole Miss or Georgia would solidify their stake.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are about on the same spot on the bubble as Kentucky is at this point. The RPI is certainly not favorable and the strength of schedule is miserable, but Florida managed to go .500 in a power conference and win 21 games. I’d say the Gators are in a slightly worse position than the Wildcats, as at least one win the SEC Tournament will be necessary for NCAA inclusion.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 28-of-48 shooting (58.3%)

(28-3, 14-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [56]: The story of this blowout is how close the game was at halftime. At the midpoint, the Vols were nursing a 38-37 lead. From that point on, Tennessee outscored the Gamecocks 51-19 the rest of the way, and finishing up outrebounding their opponents by 18. Lofton has gotten in touch with his talent recently, scoring 28 points in this win on 10-of-16 shooting and 6-of-10 from long range to go along with 4 steals. JuJuan Smith was the only other Vol scoring in double digits in this well-balanced Volunteer assault with 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting and 9 rebounds. Holmes has truly stepped up for South Carolina in the past six games, as he’s scored in double digits in five of those and posted double-doubles in three of them. In this contest, Holmes recorded 15 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey had a tough day shooting 1-of-9 put also dishing out 9 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols remain an obvious pick for a #1 seed, and should remain that way as long as they reach the finals of the SEC Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: The postseason is an impossibilty unless the Gamecocks manage to win the SEC Tournament - which I wouldn’t completely rule out, as Odom has a history of success in it.

Wednesday games…

(12-9, 2-6) Auburn [63] vs. (11-9, 5-2) Kentucky [66]: Both teams’ lack of depth was miserably evident in this game, as only six players managed to score for either team. After a late surge, the Auburn Tigers fell three points short in the final seconds to drop to 2-6. Each team had a 20-point scorer, as Crawford was Kentucky’s leader on 8-of-12 shooting, 5 rebounds, but 6 turnovers. Patterson was only a point behind with 19 on 8-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds against a height-challenged Tiger team. Prowell put up 20 for Auburn and fell just a rebound shy of a double-double. Interestingly, the game’s combined number of rebounds was only 44 - a number easily matched by teams such as Arkansas, MSU, and Tennessee in a single game.
Impact [Auburn]: A 6-2 mark will ne necessary from here on out for any serious post-season consideration, which effectively has eliminated the Tigers from contention for nearly anything meaningful outside of a SEC Tournament run.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats have certainly picked up their game as of late, but will it be too little too late? A NCAA bid would need a miracle run, but the ‘Cats have the talent to make it…but do they have the depth?
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s wildly hot 66.7% shooting

(11-9, 2-5) Georgia [59] vs. (19-4, 4-4) #23 Vanderbilt [67]: Although Vandy’s hot hand from behind the arc cooled a good bit, the Bulldogs couldn’t take advantage of it down the stretch, including just a 52.6% mark from the charity stripe. Vanderbilt’s scoring was very well-balanced, as four players scored between 12 and 14 points, led by Gordon’s 4-of-8 shooting from three. Ogilvy put up 12 points on 3-of-9 shooting (very poor for an inside man), 6 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Gaines and Price each contributed 16 for Georgia on a combined 12-of-22 shooting performance, while Gaines added 11 rebounds for third double-double of the season.
Impact [Georgia]: If the Bulldogs were to compete for a post-season bid, they would need to win their home games against a suspiciously overrated Vanderbilt team.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: After falling solidly out of the race for the Eastern Division, the Commodores are pretty close to a lock for the NCAA Tournament barring a winless remainder of the season.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s +6 turnover margin

(15-7, 6-2) Mississppi State [73] vs. (13-10, 2-6) Alabama [66]: The sweep proved more difficult for the Bulldogs than expected, as the visiting Crimson Tide tried several times late in the game to regain the lead. MSU was surprisingly below average (as compared to absolutely horrendous) from the charity stripe, as Alabama was typically miserable. Two Bulldogs scored 17 points in Gordon and Rhodes and a combined 15 rebounds. Gordon also handed out 10 assists and only turned the ball over 1 time. Gee led Alabama scorers with 16 points, but was held to 4-of-18 shooting and five rebounds and four other Tide player scored in double digits.
Impact [Miss. State]: With Arkansas not playing mid-week, State now leads the West by a game. Winning on the road at Auburn will be a must to set up the Arkansas at MSU game to practically define the Western Division championship.
Impact [Alabama]: This could serve as a small moral victory, but the Tide seem to be floundering at the moment. Any post-season play seems highly unlikely at the moment.
Stat of the Game: MSU shooting 11.9% better than Alabama

Shameless plug…

In agreement with a “working relationship” with CSTV, I refer any fans interested in watching the Vanderbilt vs. Utah State game this Friday to CSTV’s site where you can purchase the game for $9.95. Not a bad price, and the game won’t be on television otherwise.

An exhibition recap…

Here are some scores and notes from exhibition games from around the conference thus far…

Arkansas

11/02/07: Arkansas (117) vs. West Florida (43)

Michael Washington led six Razorbacks in double figures with 22 points and 10 rebounds for the team’s only double-double, and returning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly scored 17 and dished out nine assists.

Auburn

11/01/07: Auburn (89) vs. Bluefield (75)

Four Tigers scored in double-figures, including Frank Tolbert’s high of 25 points. Surprisingly, Auburn only attempted 14 three-pointers.

Florida

11/01/07: Florida (97) vs. Flagler (51)

Two Gators, Marreese Speights and Nick Calathes, recorded double-doubles in the Gator victory. Speights led the Gators with 22 points along with 13 rebounds, while Calathes fell two assists short of a triple-double with 18 points, 13 rebounds, and eight assists. All of the Gator freshmen scored in double-digits, and Florida outrebounded their opponents 59-33.

Georgia

11/02/07: Georgia (90) vs. Clayton State (56)

Sundiata Gaines scored a game-high 15 points - all from behind the arc - and Billy Humphrey scored 14. The freshmen all scored at least eight points.

Kentucky

10/31/07: Kentucky (99) vs. Pikeville (64)

Sophomore Jodie Meeks led all scorers with an impressive 34 points, including 7-of-9 shooting from three. Incoming star freshman Patrick Patterson contributed 21 points on 10-of-12 shooting from the floor.

11/03/07: Kentucky (82) vs. Seattle (63)

Patrick Patterson dominated this game, scoring 17 points on a perfect 6-of-6 from the floor and 5-of-5 from the free-throw line. He also grabbed seven rebounds and blocked three shots.

LSU

11/01/07: LSU (10 vs. Belhaven (57)

Junior-college transfer Marcus Thornton was the surprise in this game, recording 22 points on 9-of-18 shooting. Anthony Randolph scored a double-double with 20 points and 15 rebounds and first-team all-SEC Tasmin Mitchell scored 18.

Mississippi State

11/03/07: MSU (71) vs. Univ. of the Cumberlands (60)

Little-known inside presence Jarvis Varnado dominated both ends of the court for the Bulldogs, falling two blocks shy of a triple-double with 13 points on 6-of-7 shooting, 11 rebounds, and eight blocks. Yes, eight blocks, which would have tied the school record for most blocks in a game. Three other Bulldogs scored in double figures.

Ole Miss

11/02/07: Ole Miss (110) vs. Delta State (65)

Six Rebels notched double-figure nights, with David Huerta leading them with 18 points. Freshman point guard Chris Warren impressed with 17 of his own.

Tennessee

11/02/07: Tennessee (106) vs. California-PA. (46)

Seven Vols recorded double-figure scores, led by trio Tyler Smith, Cameron Tatum, and Josh Tabb each scoring 15. Smith shot 7-of-12 from the floor, Tatum was a perfect 5-of-5, and Tabb shot 5-of-6 from three.

Any teams not mentioned haven’t played an exhibition game as of yet. It’s looking like a good season for the SEC overall, although I’m thoroughly impressed with Tennessee playing without three key guys and still winning by 60. I realize this is a lower-division team, but this can only say good things for Tennessee’s depth. A couple of personal impressions made were Patrick Patterson for UK and Jarvis Varnado for MSU, similar playing types who look to be two of the best inside men in the conference either this year or next.

Here we go…

After months and months of anticipation and anxiety, the season is finally approaching. SEC games begin next week, so here’s how the predictions will play out.

Every week, score predictions for every SEC team and their games for that week will be released together.

In addition, my pick for or against the spread will come the day before the actual game - namely because the odds aren’t released until that point.

I will be keeping a running total of my percentages both win/loss but also versus the spread. These numbers will appear at the beginning of every prediction post.

With that said, we begin Week One!

Alabama

Friday, Nov. 09: Alabama (85) vs. Troy (49)

Troy loses four doube-figure scorers this season and will be absoutely outmatched from tipoff by the Tide’s defense.

Arkansas

Friday, Nov. 09: Arkansas (75) vs. Wofford (62)

Wofford is a height-disadvantaged team but brings back experience and talent - including All- Southern Conference Freshman Junior Salters. The Razorbacks will pull away after a closely-fought 30 minutes or so.

Auburn

Friday, Nov. 09: Auburn (75) @ Tulane (77)

Tulane is an experienced, talented squad and will own home-court advantage. I am on the fence with this one, but Lebo’s Tigers should fall short after losing Prowell to suspension and Dollard to redshirt.

Florida

Friday, Nov. 09: Florida (80) vs. North Dakota State (50)

North Dakota State will be heavily outmatched. Not much to say here.

Sunday, Nov. 11: Florida (74) vs. Tennessee Tech (61)

Tennessee Tech returns first-team all-OVC forward Amadi McKenzie but loses three starters. The Gators will struggle with Tech early, but pull away in the second half.

Georgia

Friday, Nov. 09: Georgia (74) vs. Jacksonville State (5

Jacksonville State returns three starters from a nine-win team. As long as the shots are falling for the Bulldogs, this game shouldn’t prove challenging.

Kentucky

Tuesday, Nov 06: Kentucky (89) vs. Central Arkansas (49)

Another case of absolute domination in the first-round game of the 2K Sports College Hoops Classic.

Wednesday, Nov. 07: TBA

Prediction will be made after result of first-round game.

LSU

No Game

Mississippi State

Saturday, Nov. 10: Mississippi State (95) vs. Louisiana Tech (49)

Tech returns one starter, Drew Washington (4.8ppg, 2.2rpg) from a 10-win team. Enough said.

Ole Miss

Saturday, Nov. 10: Ole Miss (69) vs. Mississippi Valley State (53)

Despite losing nearly every starter, the Rebels should only struggle with MVSU the first ten minutes or so. Kennedy will be looking to contain first-team all-SWAC Stanford Speech, who does it all for the Delta Devils.

South Carolina

Friday, Nov. 09: South Carolina (70) vs. South Carolina State (52)

Under their fourth new head-coach in three seasons, the SCSU Bulldogs have a limited amount of talent in their guards but very little inside presence.

Tennessee

Friday, Nov. 09: Tennessee (103) vs. Temple (79)

Temple has tons of shooters, and is led inside by senior forward Mark Tyndale who avergaed nearly 20 points per game. This should be a high-tempo game with lots of shooting from both sides.

Vanderbilt

Saturday, Nov. 10: Vanderbilt (73) vs. Austin Peay (70)

Upset alert on this one. AP returns all five starters from a 21-win, OVC championship squad. Ogilvy will have to prove his worth immediately inside to take advantage of Peay’s reliance on their guards. This should be a spectacularly entertaining game to watch.

So there you have it…picks versus the spreads to come!