SEC Tournament first-round games…

Overall: 142-41 (77.6%)
Vs. Spread: 65-66 (49.6%)
Overall (SEC): 49-23 (68.1%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 32-39 (45.1%)
East vs. West: East, 25-11

Took a beating yesterday…the percentages are falling pretty badly. With several SEC teams ending their season yesterday, on to the recaps…

(13-18, 6-11) LSU [73] vs. (14-17, 6-11) South Carolina [77]: The Gamecocks caught a bad case of streakiness, but still managed to hold off a late Tiger surge to end LSU’s season. Depth was amazingly vacant for both squads, but balanced scoring for USC’s scorers and unbelievable ball-handling by everyone - but Downey in particular - proved the difference in the game. Downey finished with a career-high-tying 11 assists and 12 points for his second double-double of the season, but didn’t shoot well (4-of-13 for 30.8%). Holmes has continued his late-season surge by tying for a team-high 16 points but didn’t rebound particularly well, with just 4. LSU’s pure talent was obvious, and if the team gathered some depth this would be a very dangerous team. Randolph shot 9-of-15 from the field for 22 points and grabbed 8 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times. Also turning the ball over 6 times was Chris Johnson, who finished with his 5th double-double of the season and his 4th in the last 6 games, with 13 points and 14 rebounds. Marcus Thornton didn’t shoot particularly well from three, hitting just 3-of-10 of his shots from that range, but finished with 17 points and 6 rebounds. Also of note, the SEC’s second-best blocking team swatted just one shot, and the Tigers turned the ball over 19 times.
Impact [LSU]: This obviously ends the Tigers’ season, but LSU has a lot of talent to work with next season.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks will have to win the conference tournament to make the postseason, regardless of the win.
Stat of the Game: USC’s +11 turnover margin

(26-6, 11-6) #18 Vanderbilt [93] vs. (14-16, 4-13) Auburn [82]: These two teams’ lack of defense was magnified by their playing of each other, as the Tigers shot 47.5% from the floor, scored 82 points, and still lost by 11. Vandy’s star players came out huge for this game, as Ogilvy and Foster combined for 53 points. Ogilvy missed just one shot out of 13 and claimed 5 rebounds, while Foster nailed 6-of-9 shots from behind the arc and grabbed 4 rebounds. Although Beal only managed 7 points, he also dished out 7 assists and didn’t turn the ball over. Auburn’s Dewayne Reed had a similar game, scoring just 8 points but handing out 9 assists and not turning the ball over. Barrett led the Tigers in scoring with 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting and Tolbert managed 17 points but shot just 4-of-13 from the field.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores didn’t necessarily increase their seeding with a win over a very weak Auburn team, the matchup against Arkansas could make more of a statement.
Impact [Auburn]: The loss means the end of Auburn’s season, as next season looks to be similar to this one.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 27 assists

(21-11, 8-9) Florida [69] vs. (17-15, 6-11) Alabama [80]: This was a significant upset, as Alabama’s defense was surprisingly stout and the Gators continued showing no intensity on the defensive end of the floor. Mykal Riley, the SEC’s second-best three-point shooter, hit an overwhelming 8-of-12 three-point shots to carry ‘Bama through the game with 26 points, while Hendrix shot 7-of-13 for 22 points and 8 rebounds. Florida could find no offense, as their leading scorer was Speights with just 15 points, and just one other Gators scored more than 10 points.
Impact [Florida]: Florida, with an RPI of 72 and a loss to a team that’s barely above .500 on the year, has effectively sealed itself off from NCAA Tournament consideration. Look for the Gators to surface as a top seed in the NIT.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are now just one win away from being considered for the NIT, but that road will go through Mississippi State, who swept them this season.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 41 rebounds to Florida’s 28

(21-10, 7-10) Ole Miss [95] vs. (14-16, 5-12) Georgia [97]: This was possibly a bigger upset than the Alabama/Florida game, as the Rebels were the three-seed in the West and Georgia was the worst SEC team record-wise. This one went to overtime and was as close as I figured it would be, but went to the Bulldogs as the team shot slightly better than the Rebs but took 11 less shots from the floor. Woodbury was the surprise scoring leader for UGA, hitting 9-of-12 shots for 25 points and 7 rebounds, while Gaines also pitched in 22 points and 5 rebounds, but shot just 5-of-14. Warren’s off-game could’ve cost his team the game, as he shot just 2-of-10 from the floor and just 1-of-6 from three to manage 8 points. Huertas tried to make up for it, shooting 7-of-11 from long-range to put up a season-high 29 points and 5 rebounds, while Curtis remained ever-reliable on the inside, scoring 26 points on 11-of-16 shooting and claiming 7 rebounds. Polynice also had a good game, handing out 9 assists to just 1 turnover.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels join the Gators in teams that likely played their way out of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, as now a top-seed in the NIT will be likely.
Impact [Georgia]: Even with the big win, the Bulldogs will still need to win the SEC Tournament to make the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 8 blocks

SEC Tournament First-Round odds…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

(13-17, 6-10) LSU [W4, #159] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [E5, #140]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU - The Tigers’ lanky inside men will be able to keep Downey shy from charging the lane, and LSU simply has more momentum at the moment.
—Keys: If fouls are called closely, the game may favor USC’s lane-driving. If not, LSU’s shot-blockers will have a field day unless the Gamecocks get hot from behind the arc.

(25-6, 10-6) #18 Vanderbilt [E3, #10] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [W6, #154]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 8.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - This is the easiest pick in some time, as the Tigers are seriously overmatched against the ‘Dores.
—Keys: The only thing that could keep this game close is Vandy’s tendency to play poorly on the road while Auburn has a good amount of experience on their squad.

(21-10, 8- Florida [E4, #65] vs. (16-15, 5-11) Alabama [W5, #118]
Spread: Florida by 3
Pick: Florida - Alabama’s utter lack of defense will cost them this game, as the Gators are one of the most offensively-efficient teams in the conference.
—Keys: Hendrix should gain the advantage inside against Speights, but the Florida guards are much better shooters and should have a field day in this game.

(21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [W3, #44] vs. (13-16, 4-12) Georgia [E6, #152]
Spread: Ole Miss by 4.5
Pick: Ole Miss - Although this should be an entertainingly close game, the Rebels’ offensive execution should win out.
—Keys: Ole Miss’ youth could prove fatal in a high-pressure situation against a pretty solid defense in Georgia. The production of the Rebels’ freshmen will be vital to their victory.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

Next up will be a complete and utter breakdown of every team and their SEC Tournament matchups.

Saturday Games

(16-15, 5-11) Alabama [78] vs. (25-6, 10-6) #16 Vanderbilt [73]: This game will drop the Commodores a seed or two, as the ‘Dores have a less-than-stellar 6-6 record in road/neutral courts on the year and this being arguably the worst such loss. Vanderbilt simply couldn’t find any offense against a practically non-existent Alabama defense, shooting just 38.2% from the field. Riley came up huge for the Tide, scoring a game-high 26 points on 6-of-13 from long range and grabbing 10 boards for his second double-double of the season and Hendrix was actually outshined by Ogilvy and still put up his 16th double-double of the season with 12 points and 11 rebounds. Gee did was he does best - put up enough shots to score some points but not shoot particularly well, shooting 5-of-12 and 2-of-5 from long range for 16 points. Shan Foster came off of his 42-point blowup against Mississippi State by notching 21 in this loss, shooting 7-of-16. Ogilvy contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The postseason isn’t completely out of the question for the Tide now, if the squad could get hot and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament. That will have to go through Florida and Mississippi State, however.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a significant loss for Vanderbilt, who proved that down the stretch when it counts the most, the ‘Dores can’t win on the road - even against a lesser opponent. That will not be looked upon kindly by the selection committee, and Vandy needs to win at least a game in the SEC Tournament to counter that image. As for specifics, I’d say the Commodores fell from a 3 or 4 seed to a 5 or 6 seed with this loss.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 7-of-25 shooting from long range (28.0%)

(13-16, 4-12) Georgia [62] vs. (21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [76]: Another case of a weak defensive team suddenly holding their opponent to poor shooting, as the Rebels held Georgia to a 30.8% effort from the floor. This was a desperately-needed statement win for the Rebels, who are trying to claw their way into NCAA Tournament consideration. Now just two games under .500 in the conference, 21 wins overall, and another road win under their belt, the Rebels could very well be on the good side of the bubble. Five Rebels scored between 15 and 10 points, led by Warren and Curtis with 15. Parnell had an unusually successful game as well, notching 13 points and a team-high 7 rebounds. Woodbury led the Bulldogs with 18 points as Gaines did more harm than good by putting up 21 attempts and only hitting 5, although he did claim 7 rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little, as the postseason is out of the question for the Bulldogs without a conference tournament title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are suddenly back in the thick of the NCAA discussion after three-straight wins, including one over likely NCAA-bound Arkansas and a road win. A win in the conference tournament would likely make the Rebs a lock for the Big Dance.
Stat of the Game: Gaines’ 5-of-21 shooting (23.8%)

(21-9, 12-4) #25 Mississippi State [84] vs. (13-17, 6-10) LSU [75]: This game was closer than the Bulldogs would have liked, as the Tigers led by 1 at halftime. The ‘Dawgs did what they have been doing during the conference season, though, and found a way to win. This was also a stereotypical MSU game in terms of defense and blocking, as State did both well - swatting 10 shots as a team to capture the SEC’s single-season block record. In his last home game, senior Charles Rhodes scored a team-high 27 points and 10 rebounds as he’s been on a serious roll as of late, recording his ninth double-double of the season and second in a row. For the second game in a row, Gordon joined Rhodes in the 20+ points collumn with 23 points and 9 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, knocked away 7 shots. Marcus Thornton tried to go Shan Foster on State again, hitting three consecutive threes late in the game to pull within four, but then started missing. He finished with a tie for career-high 38 points on 6-of-12 shooting from three while Randolph notched 14 points and 10 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season.
Impact [Miss. State]: Avoiding the let-down loss was the main concern for State at this point, as a game or two in the SEC Tournament could result in a 5-seed or better.
Impact [LSU]: With the loss, the West’s four-seed is where the Tigers will fall, which is substantially better than they seemed to have been heading for just a couple of weeks ago. No postseason is possible without winning the SEC Tournament title.
Stat of the Game: The league’s three top shot-blockers in action: Varnado (7), Johnson (1), and Randolph (1)

(20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [77] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [64]: This game appeared to be headed towards the blowout I expected at halftime, where the Razorbacks held a 45-26 lead. But some backups got minutes and the lead shrunk a bit, but this was a complete mismatch from the beginning. Arkansas destroyed the Tigers on the boards, shot remarkably well from all spots on the floor, and the ‘Backs big-men had their way inside. Beverly shot to his potential for the third-straight game, hitting 9-of-11 from the floor and 6-of-6 from behind the arc for 27 points along with grabbing 8 rebounds, while Darian Townes hit 6-of-7 shots to score 12 points and claimed a season-high 14 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Frank Tolbert was Auburn’s main offensive weapon, as he sank 7-of-12 shots, grabbed 4 rebounds, and handed out 5 assists but turned the ball over 5 times for 17 points.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks might have secured an at-large NCAA bid with this win, guaranteeing themselves a + .500 SEC record. The squad’s performance in the SEC Tournament will determine the seed, which could be as low as a 10 or 9, or as high as a 7 or 8.
Impact [Auburn]: Time to get the hands hot, because winning the conference tournament is the Tigers’ only shot at the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ big-men hitting 14-of-22 (63.6%) shots total

Sunday Games

(18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [75] vs. (21-10, 8- Florida [70]: In this crucial battle-of-the-bubble game, the Wildcats held onto their lead despite a late charge by the Gators. Surprisingly, Florida heavily outrebounded Kentucky, but succombed to their defensive prowess and showed none of their own as the ‘Cats shot very well from the floor. Kentucky’s lack of depth was apparent, as only six Wildcats scored, as Stevenson led the Blue in scoring…stepping up nicely in the abscense of Patterson. Stevenson put up 18 points on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting effort and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the campaign, needless to mention blocking 5 shots. Crawford had an off-day shooting-wise, hitting just 7-of-17 shots and 2-of-7 from three, and Bradley handed out 7 assists but turned the ball over 4 times. Speights is becoming a star for Florida, with another 20-point outing on 8-of-11 shooting and 8 rebounds, and Calathes continues to be reliable with 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting and 6 assists to just 2 turnovers. The Gators aren’t terribly deep, but are very, very talented.
Impact [Kentucky]: This is a remarkable situation, really. As of now, there simply can’t be an informed observer of the sport that would say Kentucky isn’t an NCAA-quality team. But with a questionable RPI and two terrible losses (three if you count the 40+ embarassment to Vanderbilt), will 12 SEC wins but just 18 overall wins be enough? My guess is yes, but a win against either Ole Miss or Georgia would solidify their stake.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are about on the same spot on the bubble as Kentucky is at this point. The RPI is certainly not favorable and the strength of schedule is miserable, but Florida managed to go .500 in a power conference and win 21 games. I’d say the Gators are in a slightly worse position than the Wildcats, as at least one win the SEC Tournament will be necessary for NCAA inclusion.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 28-of-48 shooting (58.3%)

(28-3, 14-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [56]: The story of this blowout is how close the game was at halftime. At the midpoint, the Vols were nursing a 38-37 lead. From that point on, Tennessee outscored the Gamecocks 51-19 the rest of the way, and finishing up outrebounding their opponents by 18. Lofton has gotten in touch with his talent recently, scoring 28 points in this win on 10-of-16 shooting and 6-of-10 from long range to go along with 4 steals. JuJuan Smith was the only other Vol scoring in double digits in this well-balanced Volunteer assault with 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting and 9 rebounds. Holmes has truly stepped up for South Carolina in the past six games, as he’s scored in double digits in five of those and posted double-doubles in three of them. In this contest, Holmes recorded 15 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey had a tough day shooting 1-of-9 put also dishing out 9 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols remain an obvious pick for a #1 seed, and should remain that way as long as they reach the finals of the SEC Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: The postseason is an impossibilty unless the Gamecocks manage to win the SEC Tournament - which I wouldn’t completely rule out, as Odom has a history of success in it.

Saturday Odds…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

(15-15, 4-11) Alabama [#134] vs. (25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#7]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - Although the Commodores haven’t been especially efficient on the road, Alabama doesn’t have the depth to win this game.
—Keys: How will Foster react to his monster game against MSU? Can Ogilvy even come close to containing Hendrix? Hendrix needs touches for UA, and Vanderbilt needs to stay accurate from three.

(13-15, 4-11) Georgia [#145] vs. (20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [#42]
Spread: Even
Pick: Georgia - The Rebels have yet to win a conference road game, and this will be Gaines’ last home game.
—Keys: Look for Gaines to have a huge game. The Rebels need motivation for themselves, as this is a must-win for their NCAA hopes.

(20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [#37] vs. (13-16, 6-9) LSU [#160]
Spread: Miss. State by 10.5
Pick: Mississippi State - This is a bad matchup for LSU, as the Tigers have very little offense and even less depth. Rhodes should also come up big for the Bulldogs, as this will be his last regular-season home game.
Keys: Keep an eye on Rhodes, and even Gordon if he knows he’s leaving to the NBA. A loss today would drop State significantly in the NCAA seeding process.

(19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [#40] vs. (14-14, 4-11) Auburn [#155]
Spread: Arkansas by 13.5
Pick: Arkansas - This should get ugly. Not only is this a very severe mismatch for the Tigers, but an enormous amount of Razorbacks will be playing in their last regular-season home game and for a NCAA bid.
Keys: Auburn will have to shoot lights-out to even stay in this game. An absolute must-win for the Razorbacks to make the NCAA Tournament.

Wednesday games…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

With the last set of regular-season games coming up, posts will soon begin focus on postseason play.

(13-16, 5-10) South Carolina [63] vs. (17-11, 11-4) Kentucky [71]: Kentucky’s lack of depth again became apparent, and yet the team won another road game. Without Patterson, rebounding wasn’t a strength (the teams tied) for the Wildcats, but the squad’s shooting was phenomenal. Crawford brought down a season-high 35 points on 10-of-19 shooting, while Bradley scored 20 points on 6-of-11 shooting. The team’s two remaining big-men, Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson, took a combined 5 attempts from the floor - making it increasingly obvious Kentucky has abandoned any attempts at running some offense through the post. That will work as long as you’re playing against a guard-oriented team like USC and your own guards are shooting over 50%, but I suspect the team will fold against a bigger, more substantial team. Downey took much less responsibility than usual, shooting only 9 times, while Fredrick led the Gamecocks with 19 points. Holmes, who has really stepped up in SEC play, recorded his third double-double with 16 points and a game-high 10 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks won’t be seeing the postseason without a miracle run in the SEC Tournament.
Impact [Kentucky]: With their 11th SEC win but just 17 wins overall, the Wildcats still seem like a wild-card for the NCAA Tournament. Florida at home is an absolute must-win, and a game in the SEC Tournament would certainly help. Lose in the next two games, and the ‘Cats will be headed for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 56.4% shooting

(14-14, 4-11) Auburn [54] vs. (13-15, 4-11) Georgia [59]: While this would have been a big road win for Felton’s squad earlier in the year, it was a non-factor at this point in the season. As most teams do against the Tigers, Georgia rebounded well and turned the ball over too much. Auburn’s sudden lack of shooting prowess was the story of the game, as the team put up an entirely unneccessary 31 threes and only hit 9 of them. Sophomore Albert Jackson suddenly stepped up for the Bulldogs, scoring a season-high 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds. Gaines didn’t have a particularly impressive game, shooting just 2-of-8 for 11 points. Tolbert was again the Tigers’ lead scorer, but just with 12 points on 3-of-10 shooting. Prowell contributed 11 points and 7 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers should be looking towards next season at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: The Bulldogs are in the same boat as the Tigers.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 19.4% three-point shooting

(13-16, 6-9) LSU [80] vs. (15-15, 4-11) Alabama [74]: This game was very stereotypical for both teams, as Hendrix was a load inside for the Tide but wasn’t able to win the game by himself and LSU’s depth problems led to two 20+ scorers. Alabama dominated the rebounding collumn, while the Tigers shared the ball well and blocked an impressive 14 shots. Anthony Randolph led all scorers with a season-high 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting and a perfect 9-of-9 from the charity stripe. Marcus Thornton wasn’t far behind with 27 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three, while Chris Johnson neared a triple-double with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 blocks - his fourth double-double of the season and third in the past four games. The rest of the LSU team totalled 13 points. Hendrix notched his 15th double-double of the season with 16 points and 13 rebounds, while Jemison was a nice complement with 14 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: The Tigers have won four games in a row and suddenly placed themselves two games out of last place in the division and are competing for the three seed heading into the SEC Tournament. Unfortunately, it will be too little too late without a SEC Tournament title.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide continue to be tied with Auburn and Georgia for the title of the conference’s worst team.
Stat of the Game: Randolph/Thornton taking 64.7% of LSU’s shot attempts

(25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [86] vs. (20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [85]: This was one of the wildest games of the season. The Bulldogs seemed to control the entire game, leading almost all of it, but the immensely talented Shan Foster suddenly caught fire from three after missing six-straight to hit nine in a row, including one to send the game to overtime and another to win the game. The Commodores finish the season undefeated at home in a thriller, as Foster scored the second-most points in Vandy history: 42. Foster finished 16-of-25 from the field and 9-of-15 from three, needless to mention his five rebounds. His unbelievable display of leadership and shooting prowess against the nation’s second-ranked defense almost certainly has guaranteed him SEC Player of the Year, despite his rival Jamont Gordon scoring 24 points and 8 rebounds. Senior Charles Rhodes put up 22 points and 14 rebounds for his 8th double-double of the season for the Bulldogs, but none of this was enough to stop Foster from hitting contested threes to win the game. MSU had a couple of opportunities in both regulation and overtime to ice the game from the free throw line, but continuously hit one out of two to allow Foster to keep raining threes. My question would be…if he’s hit 6 in a row and you’re up by four in the final minute, wouldn’t you start fouling?
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a huge win for Vanderbilt, as a 3-seed remains possible. However, a 3-seed in the SEC Tournament may still be waiting unless Kentucky stumbles on Saturday.
Impact [Mississippi State]: The Bulldogs desperately needed the signiture win to improve their seeding. With the emotional overtime loss, the ‘Dawgs now face an LSU team on a 4-game win-streak at home with the SEC Tournament to follow. If there was a definition of a trap-game, this would be it.
Stat of the Game: What else? 42 points, 9-of-15 from three. State’s 53.6% free throw effort could be included, however.

(21-9, 8-7) Florida [86] vs. (27-3, 13-2) #4 Tennessee [89]: The Gators seemed to have solid control of this game even into the second half, leading by at least 13, but the Vols buckled down and went on a run to force a close win late. Most surprising was Tennessee’s lack of defense, allowing the Gators to shoot 59.6% on the game. Both teams posted two players with more than 20 points, as JuJuan Smith and Chris Lofton put up 23 and 21 points respectively for the Vols. The two shot a combined 8-of-15 from three and 15-of-24 from the field. Calathes led the Gators with 24 points but an even more impressive 9 assists, while Speights shot a perfect 8-of-8 for 21 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: Dropping a close home game that would have sealed an NCAA bid is a heart-breaker for the Gators, as a trip to Lexington is next. That game could very well be a must-win for Florida’s NCAA chances.
Impact [Tennessee]: With the tough road win, the Vols remain a solid pick for a #1 seed, depending on the outcome of the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: The two teams’ combined 55.5% shooting efforts

Tuesday game, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 136-34 (80.0%)
Vs. Spread: 62-56 (52.5%)
Overall (SEC): 43-16 (72.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 29-29 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Tuesday Game

(20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [81] vs. (19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [72]: This was a case of those not-as-close-as-they-look games, as the Rebels held a firm grasp on the game from very early on until the Razrbacks made a late charge. Arkansas’ road woes continued against the Rebels, as the ‘Backs’ defense was almost non-existent - Ole Miss shot 50.9% from the field. Despite Arkansas’ physical team makeup, the Rebels did what they have done very well all year: rebound, outrebounding their opponents 36-29. The Rebels were ultimately too quick and athletic for Arkansas to keep up with on the road. As per my keys, Curtis was indeed able to pull more than his own weight inside against Arkansas’ big men, scoring 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds for his unbelievable 15th double-double of the season. Curtis is easily one of the most overlooked inside men in the conference. Huertas also shot well, hitting 3-of-6 shots from long range and dishing out 5 assists. For Arkansas, Beverly finally found his shot just as Weems lost his. Beverly shot 7-of-13 and 3-of-8 from three for 19 points while Weems (who has scored at least 20 points in 7 of the last 13 games) managed just 5 points on 2-of-11 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This win certainly keeps the Rebels’ NCAA hopes alive, although the team will likely need to win at Georgia and at least a game in the SEC Tournament. The RPI (42nd) is respectable, but the their last 10 games (4-6) is less so.
Impact [Arkansas]: This dealt a huge blow to the Razorbacks, who suddenly fall from probably NCAA pick to the wrong side of the bubble. Luckily, Auburn at home is next, but Arkansas’ 5-9 Road/Nuetral record is certainly not favorable. One win the SEC Tournament could put them in, however.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss shooting 20.4% better from three

Wednesday Odds

(13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [#139] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [#55]
Spread: South Carolina by 1
Pick: South Carolina - Before the loss of Patterson, I would have picked Kentucky. However, the Wildcats now seemingly have noone to keep Downey from the lane.
—Keys: Obviously, can Kentucky establish inside presence with just Stevenson, and keep Downey our of the lane? Will South Carolina regain their composure from behind the 3-point arc. With the NCAA on the line, will the Wildcats choke?

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [#143] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [#156]
Spread: Auburn by 2
Pick: Auburn - The Tigers have the firepower to put up some points, and the Bulldogs don’t have the defense to stop them.
—Keys: Will Humphrey or someone else be able to complement Gaines for Georgia, and how will the Tigers try and stop Gaines?

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [#163] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [#122]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU - The Tigers have won three in a row over better competition, and Alabama has dropped 3 of their last 4.
—Keys: LSU’s defense is actually pretty solid, and the Alabama guards will need to be able to bring down whatever points they are able to. Look for the matchup of Johnson and Randolph’s defense against Hendrix’s offense.

(24-5, 9-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (20-8, 11-3) #25 Mississippi State [#38]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 3.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - The Commodores are undefeated at home, although this could be a mismatch for Vanderbilt. The game should be a competitive one, as the ‘Dores’ offense is paired up against the Dawgs’ defense.
—Keys: Will Varnado be able to silence Ogilvy inside? MSU will need to minimize turnovers if they want to have a chance, and Commodores will need to make shots against the nation’s second-ranked defense.

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [#60] vs. (26-3, 12-2) #4 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 1.5
Pick: Tennessee - The Vols seem unphased by road play, and the Gators are still struggling. With the Gators’ youth, look for them to give up a big number of turnovers against Tennessee’s press defense.
—Turnovers will be key - Florida will need to keep them in check. With Florida’s lack of defense of any type, Tennessee’s efficient offense could make this a blowout.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 135-34 (79.9%)
Vs. Spread: 61-56 (52.1%)
Overall (SEC): 42-16 (72.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 28-29 (49.1%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Saturday Games

(19-9, 8-6) Arkansas [78] vs. (24-5, 9-5) #18 Vanderbilt [73]: This was a very surprising game from a statistical point of view. To begin, the home team usually forces their own tempo, and this was clearly an uncomfortably up-tempo game for the Razorbacks. Secondly, Vanderbilt came into BWA as one of the conference’s best-shooting (if not the best) teams, and the ‘Backs outshot Vanderbilt by 15.0%. However, one would presume Arkansas’ big-man superiority would lead to a rebounding advantage, but it was the Commodores who won the rebounding advantage 29-24. Ultimately, Vanderbilt’s lack of defense proved the difference in the game. Weems continues to impress in SEC play, shooting 3-of-5 from three-point range for 20 points while Beverly suddenly caught fire and shot 5-of-7 from behind the arc and 6-of-10 overall to score 17. Ervin also had a nice game, handing out 7 assists and only turning the ball over once. Vanderbilt’s scoring was lop-sided, as Foster led the team with 22 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three and freshman Ogilvy upped his SEC Freshman of the Year candicacy by recording 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks. However, only one other Vandy player scored over 10 and only a few others managed to get on the board.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win over a ranked team provided a massive boost to the Razorbacks’ NCAA chances, but at least one more win will probably be needed to ensure inclusion.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It’s all about seeding at this point, although the Commodores will likely finish 3rd in the Eastern Division and miss the SEC Tournament’s first-round bye.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 58.3% shooting and 56.2% effort from three

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [63] vs. (13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [69]: The Gamecocks surprised the Tigers on the road by holding the solid-shooting squad to just 63 points. While both teams rely heavily on the three-pointer, neither shot well from that distance and South Carolina had the advantage getting inside with Downey. Downey led all scorers with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting (only two of those attempts from three-point range) while Holmes shot 8-of-10 for 18 points and 7 rebounds. Tolbert led the Tigers with 20 points while Prowell recorded his second double-double of the season with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers have long since been out of the postseason question, so this game had very little impact overall on the divisions’ bottom-dwellers.
Impact [South Carolina]: Odom has a history of getting hot in the SEC Tournament, and a road win could give Gamecock fans a small glint of hope for that to happen again.
Stat of the Game: Two of the SEC’s better three-point shooting teams combining for 8-of-39 (20.5%) shooting from three

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [59] vs. (20-8, 11-3) Mississippi State [68]: While this was a sub-ten-point game, the Bulldogs dominated the pace and outcome of this game from the very beginning. MSU remains the nation’s second-ranked defense, and it showed as the Gators usually-potent offense shot just 36.1% from the floor and 28.0% from three. MSU’s ball-handling was surprisingly good considering their unremarkable history of turning the ball over, and none of the Florida guards could find anything against State’s defense, missing several open layups. Hansbrough was the rarity for the Bulldogs to lead the team, scoring 20 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three while Rhodes put up 15 points and 8 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, swatted 7 shots and scored 11 points/rebounds apeice for his fifth double-double of the season. SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon suffered a terrible outing, shooting just 1-of-8 for 4 points asnd 5 rebounds. Speights was the bright spot for Florida, as he seemingly had his way inside, scoring 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds for the sixth double-double of his season. Calathes shot decently for 18 points, but uncharacteristically turned the ball over 3 times.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators desperately needed this win to bolster their NCAA resume, as #1 Tennessee comes to town next and then Florida will have to travel to Kentucky. One of those games must be a win, and another win in the SEC Tournament may be needed to get on the good side of the bubble.
Impact [Mississippi State]: MSU now clinches sole possession of the Western Division, and is a game back from the overall title with two games remaining. This was a tremendous seed-booster for the NCAA-bound Bulldogs, and if State can take care of Vanderbilt on the road and LSU at home, a 5 seed or better could be the outcome, depending on the squad’s performance in the conference tournament.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 7-of-25 shooting from three (28.0%)

(19-9, 5-9) Ole Miss [91] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [88]: This was a must-win for the Rebels, and the team barely pulled it out in the end to maintain their dim NCAA hopes. With both teams’ abscense of defense, the two teams shot very well from the field - the main reason the game came down to the wire. The Rebels’ main stars Warren and Curtis scored 25 and 24 points, respectively, while Warren also pitched in 8 assists and Curtis grabbed 9 rebounds. Huertas was also strong, scoring 18 points on 4-of-8 shooting from long range and claiming 9 boards. The Rebels did well keeping the ball out of the hands of Hendrix, as he was only allowed to attempt 8 shots for 10 points and 5 rebounds. Riley led the Tide with 20 points, but shot just 6-of-16 from the floor because of the squad’s lack of shooting depth. Jemison had his second big game in a row, scoring 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels will nearly lose NCAA contention with a loss to Arkansas at home on Tuesday. Both that game at the next at Georgia are must wins, if Kennedy hopes to avoid the NIT for the second-straight season.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are simply hoping to avoid the title of being the Western Division’s worst team, as the postseason seems out of the question

Sunday Games

(26-3, 12-2) #1 Tennessee [63] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [60]: The Wildcats actually led a decent amount of this game and Gillespie did an outstanding job at compensating for the loss of Patterson by slashing the ball to the basket with his guards Auburn-style. With that said, careless ball-handling and the Tennessee press handed the victory to the Vols, although the ‘Cats also outshot and outrebounded the top-ranked team. No surprise in the scoring for Tennessee, as only two players scored more than 10 points but eight players scored at least three. Tyler Smith led the charge with 15 on 6-of-14 shooting and five rebounds, and preseason All-American Chris Lofton scored 14 but turned the ball over 3 times. Bradley led the Wildcats with 17 points, but missed 2 out of 5 free throws (a lot for the SEC’s leading free-throw shooting). Perry Stevenson scored 13 points and claimed a career-high 14 rebounds for his second double-double of the season.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols are now only realistically battling with MSU for the SEC overall championship, and seem to be in a good spot - up by one game with only two remaining. If Tennessee can win their final two (at Florida, South Carolina at home) and reach the SEC Tournament final, a #1 seed should be a given.
Impact [Kentucky]: With the loss, Kentucky will likely need to win both of their remaining regular-season games (at South Carolina, Florida at home) and possibly even one more in the SEC Tournament to sufficiently impress the NCAA Selection Committee.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky (SEC’s best FT-shooting team) shooting 63.2% from the charity stripe

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [71] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [64]: This was not a pretty game, but it was exciting. Lots of big plays and energy for both squads, but also a lot of careless turnovers and poor decisions. Of note, Sundiata Gaines was thrown out of the game after receiving an inadvertent elbow in the lip from Georgia’s Bliss (I believe) on a floor-ball-scrambling and reacting with a clearly intended punch to the face. It was absolutely uncalled for, and I’m beginning to question Felton’s ability to bring in quality people to the program, despite his obviously good-natured personality. He’s constantly had problems on and off the court with his players, and it sure seems as if he simply doesn’t have what it takes to recruit good people. Back to the game - Marcus Thornton brought down a game-high 36 points (and even more surprisingly, it wasn’t a season high) on 12-of-21 shooting and a 5-of-7 effort from three along with 10 rebounds to notch his fourth double-double of the season and first since SEC play began. Randolph contributed 19 and Johnson tied a season-high 15 rebounds. Billy Humphrey rebounded from a stretch of 6 games in which he was held to under 10 points in five of them to score 26 points on 5-of-8 shooting from behind the arc for the Bulldogs.
Impact [LSU]: Very little. The postseason is out of the question, seeding in the SEC Tournament is about all that can improve at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little. The postseason is also out of the question for the Bulldogs.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 18 turnovers

Wednesday games…

Overall: 135-34 (79.9%)
Vs. Spread: 61-56 (52.1%)
Overall (SEC): 42-16 (72.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 28-29 (49.1%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Unfortunately, I didn’t have the time to recap all of the games before the next set. However, here is a small breakdown of each game.

Alabama defeated Arkansas at home by three, dealing the Razorbacks a major blow in their NCAA hopes. Vanderbilt at home will be a must-win for Arkansas now, as the team falls to 18-9 and 7-6 on the season. Jemison had a break-out game for Alabama, scoring a season-high 19 points.

Florida dominated the Georgia Bulldogs at home as I expected, with the Gators keeping their NCAA hopes alive. Calathes led Florida with 22 points.

After leading by as much as 24-4, the Rebels came back on Kentucky and made it a ballgame but ultimately fell 58-54 on the road in Lexington. As Ole Miss is now guaranteed a losing SEC record, they can ill-afford another SEC loss if they hope to reach the NCAA’s. The Wildcats are now desperately trying to win every game they can to reach the Big Dance, and also can barely afford to lose another conference contest.

Mississippi State had more trouble with the Auburn Tigers at home than they did on the road, but still won by 12 and thus solidified at least a share of the SEC’s Western Division title with the Arkansas loss. State has been hot ever since their 5-5 start, and now the Bulldogs seem to be the SEC’s third NCAA lock after Vandy and Tennessee.

The LSU Tigers continue their surprisingly improved play by pulling a big upset of South Carolina on the road by 62-55, as neither team will likely see the postseason.

Pre-SEC Tournament Breakdown

Here’s a recap of where each team stands a little over two weeks away from the SEC Tournament. This includes likely seeds in the conference tournament and postseason play, remaining games, etc.

Alabama (14-13, 3-9)

The Tide have played good teams close this season: 4-point loss at Arkansas, 10-point loss to #5 Georgetown, 7-point loss to #1 Tennessee, 7-point loss at Mississippi State. However, the lack of talented depth - particularly interior - has limited the numbers under the win collumn. The team’s defense is miserable, the worst in the SEC in fact, and the offense holds its own. Richard Hendrix is obviously the MVP here, as he is possibly the best overall player in the SEC and by far one of the most overlooked college players in the nation. Gee is a distant second, as he’ll need to work on his decision-making to be a serious threat in his senior season next year. Hendrix is certainly a threat to go pro - but without the press coverage of a good season, he should come back and set up Alabama with a potential to win the conference outright next season, as some talented recruits filter into the program, Steele becomes available for his senior season more healthy than he’s been in a while, and the squad loses nearly noone.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #5 seed
Round One: vs. Florida (W4)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Arkansas (18-8, 7-5)

The Razorbacks have played well, but look to fall just short of their predicted finish of first in the Western division, mainly due to missed opportunites for wins at Georgia (L, 69-82) and versus South Carolina (L, 66-70). The team excels in rebounding and defense, its game-plan very similar to Mississippi State. Ironically, both Weems and Beverly lead the team in scoring threats, although Beverly’s shooting has dropped off significantly from last year and his rebounding has drastically improved, despite the squad’s reliance on its big-men. None of the Arkansas players will likely make any NBA draft, although the team loses Ervin, Hill, Hunter, Thomas, Townes, and Weems next year as 2008-2009 looks to be a gigantic rebuilding year for the ‘Backs.

Remaining Schedule (Prediction)

@ Alabama (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Ole Miss (W)
vs. Auburn (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

21-9, 10-6

SEC Tournament

West #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. LSU (W6) or Vanderbilt (E3)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 8 seed

Auburn (14-11, 4-

The Tigers have lots of potential to score, but only from their shooters - not their offensive plays. The team excels at racing and cutting to the basket, but are very vertically challenged with only one player on the roaster taller than their coach, Jeff Lebo. Free-throw shooting and field-goal percentage are the squad’s specialties, but nearly nothing else is - and rebounding is certainly the team’s biggest weakness. Depth has also been an enormous issue, as rarely do more than six Tigers score in a given game. Prowell leads the team in scoring, although Barber is arguably the team’s most important player with 13.8ppg, 6.9rpg and shooting 72.0% from the field. Quantez Robertson is one of the most under-appreciated point guards in the conference, as he sports 4.3 assists to 1.8 turnovers per game. None of the players have a shot at going pro, and the team loses Archie, Prowell, and Tolbert for next season…a significant scoring loss for a team that can’t afford to lose much depth.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Mississippi State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (L)
@ Arkansas (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-14, 5-11

SEC Tournament

West #4 seed
Round One: vs. South Carolina (E5)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Florida (20-7, 7-5)

The very, very young Gators started off hot and looked to compete for the conference title, standing at 18-3 and 5-1 at one point. Since then, the freshmen have - like Ole Miss’ - hit the “brick wall”, as the squad has gone 2-4. The team is immensely talented (the nation’s top recruiting class for last year) but still very young and look to improve vastly next season. Defense has been shoddy at best, but the offense has been dynamic and nearly unstoppable. Calathes has been the catalyst for the team all season, as he leads the team with 15.3ppg, and also ranks among the top of the conference with 6.1 assists per game. Speights has proven to be a formidable inside prescense, putting up 7.8rpg and shooting 61.6% from the field. Losing noone for next year, this team looks to challenge for the overall SEC title next season and could very well end up as a Final Four threat before its all said and done.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Georgia (W)
vs. Mississippi St. (W)
vs. #1 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

22-9, 9-7

SEC Tournament

East #4 seed
Round One: vs. Alabama (W5)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 9 seed

Georgia (12-13, 3-9)

The Bulldogs, much like Alabama, have competed in nearly every game and played good fundamentals, but simply haven’t pulled through in the clutch. Close games include: 8-point loss at Gonzaga, a win over Arkansas, 5-point loss to Kentucky, 8-point loss to #18 Vanderbilt, 3-point loss to #1 Tennessee, and a 6-point loss at Kentucky. The team rebounds and defends well, but can’t get anything going offensively. Sundiata Gaines has proven to be a dominating player, shooting incredibly well and even averaging 6.6rpg. Gaines has a great potential to make the conference’s first-team, and certainly the second-team. With that said, when your playmaking guard is leading your team in rebounding, someone’s missing some assignments. Gaines will probably test the NBA waters but certainly won’t make the cut, and the team loses Gaines and Bliss headed into next season. Losing Gaines will likely mean yet another season at the bottom of the SEC East.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Ole Miss (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

East #6 seed
Round One: vs. Ole Miss (W3)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Kentucky (15-10, 9-3)

The two most interesting storylines heading into the postseason will be Kentucky and Ole Miss - direct opposites of each other. As the Rebels have a decent overall wins record and RPI, their SEC record is miserable. Conversely, the Wildcats have won just 15 games and have home losses to both Gardner-Webb (L, 68-84) and San Diego (L, 72-81) but have amassed an impressive 9-3 conference record with wins over #18 Vanderbilt, #1 Tennessee, and Arkansas. The team has taken advantage of a solid defensive prescense, decent rebounding, and the conference’s best free-throw shooting to edge into second place in the conference and within a game and a half of Tennessee for the lead. The interesting issue for Kentucky is that the NCAA selection committee will likely either have to leave out a 10+ win SEC team for the first time ever or hand out an at-large to a 18 or 19-win team. Crawford, Patterson, and Bradley each contribute more than 15 points for a Wildcat team that has struggled with talented depth. Patterson will battle Calathes and Ogilvy for SEC Freshman of the Year, averaging 16.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Bradley leads the league in free-throw shooting with an 85.6% mark from the charity stripe. The only likely NBA-bound player will be Patterson, although he would be advised not to leave this season. The Wildcats will take a major blow in the points column by losing both Bradley and Crawford next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

18-11, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Georgia (E6) or Ole Miss (W3)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 10 seed

LSU (10-16, 3-9)

Surprisingly competitve following coach Brady’s firing, the Tigers have since upset Florida, handed a 20-point demolition to Ole Miss, played #1 Tennessee to 2 points, and played Kentucky to 4. However, the big picture is an ugly one for the Tigers, as they trail the entire conference in an enormous amount of statistical categories. Rebounding isn’t good, defense is mediocre, and offense is horrendous. About the only plus for LSU is ranking [a distant] second in the league in blocks per game. Marcus Thornton is the playmaker for the Tigers, as he averages 18.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Anthony Randolph is a quality big-man down low, although he hasn’t fared particularly well against the SEC’s other great big-men, with 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Both players would be legitimate NBA material if on another team, but the obscene lack of depth and the absence of a point-guard for LSU will limit that until the team steps back onto the national scene. As a positive, the team loses noone of importance heading into next season, and should have every opportunity to improve upon this year’s dismal record.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Mississippi State (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

11-19, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #6 seed
Round One: vs. Vanderbilt (E3)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Mississippi State (18-8, 9-3)

With a two-game lead in the West with four games remaining, the Bulldogs have a strangle-hold on the division. Also just a game and a half back overall, the overall title is still a distant hope. None of this would have been predicted earlier in the season when MSU stood at 5-5 on the season with losses to both Miamis and Southern Illinois among others. No terrible losses, but games a Western-Division champion should win. State has improved drastically since that point, with the only noticeable losses being a 20-point blowout at Arkansas and a loss at rival Ole Miss. The team has peeled off this impressive stretch by ranking 2nd in the nation in both field-goal percentage defense and blocking, while sophomore defensive expert Jarvis Varnado leads the entire nation in blocks per game. Varnado has totalled more blocks personally than at least 7 SEC teams as a whole, and has long since surpassed MSU’s all-time single-season block record. Rebounding is also a specialty for the Bulldogs, although ball-handling and free-throw shooting could prove to be fatal shortcomings in the NCAA Tournament. State’s Gordon will challenge Vandy’s Shan Foster for SEC Player of the Year, as the all-america candidate is leading the team with 17.5ppg, 6.3rpg (as a point guard) and 4.7 assists per game - although 4.0 turnovers per game is far from desirable. Rhodes has stepped up his play lately to put himself into the argument for All-SEC First Team. Rhodes will likely throw his name into the draft as a senior, and if Gordon will follow Rhodes into the NBA will perhaps become the SEC’s biggest question this off-season. If not, Gordon could lead the Bulldogs back to the top of the West and to the NCAA’s.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #18 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 11-5

SEC Tournament

West #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Alabama (W5) or Florida (E4)
Semifinals: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 6 seed

Ole Miss (18-8, 4-

The Rebels have officially become “this year’s Clemson” after throwing the SEC on its heels by starting 13-0 but since have posted a 4-8 record, including being swept by Auburn and posting a 20-point loss at the SEC’s worst team, LSU. After appearing to be a certain NCAA lock, the team is now teetering on the wrong side of the bubble as the best possible outcome will be a sub-.500 SEC record. The team’s offensive efficiency has been outstanding for most of the season until recently, with freshman Chris Warren leading the charge. Defensively, the Rebels are non-existent although rebounding (behind Curtis) has become a trademark. Warren leads the Rebs both in scoring but in leadership - which has proved a major problem, as he is only a freshman. Curtis follows Hendrix as the conference’s best big-man, nearly averaging a double-double at 14.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. The team is very young and has tons of potential, but will lose most of its frontcourt with the exodus of Curtis (to graduation and then the NBA) and Williams, the teams’ often-overlooked but very talented forward (to graduation). Next year, the Rebels look to be equally as talented offensively but rebounding will suffer badly and defense should continue to struggle.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Georgia (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 6-8

SEC Tournament

West #3 seed
Round One: vs. Georgia (E6)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NIT: 1 seed

South Carolina (12-14, 4-

The Gamecocks are a stereotypical USC team - one talented point guard, and very little surrounding him. Downey can’t win every game on his own, and thus the squad has struggled. Amidst Odom’s announcement of his retirement at the end of the season, South Carolina has seemed just fall just short in nearly every game. South Carolina is actually one of the SEC’s best - if not the best - three-point shooting teams from a percentage aspect, but their reliance on the longball can get them into some trouble if they’re not falling. Downey is one of the conference’s top scorers, averaging 19.7 points per game, though he’s also putting up over 17 attempts per game. Downey is responsible, however, for 5.1 assists per outing. As a sophomore, Downey will likely leave his name out of the NBA waters, but he has the talent to get there at some point in his career. Losing literally noone from this year’s team, the Gamecocks are poised to be a competitive bunch next season, depending on the coaching change.v

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-17, 5-11

SEC Tournament

East #5 seed
Round One: vs. Auburn (W4)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Tennessee (25-3, 11-2)

After a thrilling upset of the nation’s top-ranked team in Memphis, the Vols were ushered into the top spot with welcome arms the following Monday. However, the excitement of the program’s first #1 ranking ever was soon lost on Tuesday night, as the Vols dropped a 3-point road decision to 18th-ranked Vanderbilt. Tennessee is still a menacing team sure to stretch their season long into the NCAA Tournament and continue to vie for a top seed barring no more losses until the conference tournament’s final game. Rebounding has been a pleasant surprise for head coach Bruce Pearl, mainly due to his genious coaching skills and the team knowing their placements on shot-selection. The team makes more three-pointers than any other team in the conference, but barely shoots an above-average percentage from that range. Balanced scoring has highlighted the team’s dynamic, as pre-season All-American Chris Lofton’s percentages has suffered this year. He still leads the team in scoring, but isn’t shooting even 40% from the field and is hoisting up almost 2 more shots per game than any other teammate. JuJuan Smith has evolved into a Jamont-Gordon-like dynamic player who’s able to do almost anything with the basketball, and Tyler Smith has lived up to the pre-season hype as one of the nation’s best incoming transfers. The immense wealth of talent that Pearl has so quickly stock-piled is unrivaled in the conference, and any number of players could prove to have NBA skills, including Lofton, Tyler/JuJuan Smith, and others. Because of this, it’s very difficult to pick out who may actually jump, although I suspect both Lofton and JuJuan Smith will put their names in the hat due to their lack of remaining eligibility. Those two are the only players lost for Tennessee (although they are very important pieces to the puzzle), so Tennessee could once again be in the running for a divisional or conference title next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

28-3, 14-2

SEC Tournament

East #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. South Carolina (E5) or Auburn (W4)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 1 seed

Vanderbilt (24-4, 9-4)

The Commodores started off at a red-hot clip, winning 16-straight games before losing 4 of their next 5. Appearing to be mimmicking Ole Miss’ epic implosion, the Commodores bounced back to a very good SEC record and have long since sealed their NCAA fates. The team (seemingly among many others in the Eastern Division) relies heavily on three-point shooting while rebounding isn’t a specialty, and has been anchored by SEC Player of the Year candidate Shan Foster and outstanding SEC Fresham of the Year candidate A.J. Ogilvy. Foster is near the top of the conference in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per contest on an absolutely excellent 51.6% shooting despite putting up over 13 attempts per game. Foster also is shooting over 45% from behind the arc and 5 rebounds per game. Ogilvy has proved formidable on the offensive end and less so on the defensive end, averaging 16.6ppg and 6.8rpg. Both players have NBA potential, although Foster is an almost definite as this is his last year. Ogilvy is a big question-mark, as he’s been on scouts’ radars even since his high-school days in Australia. If the team loses both, next year could be a semi-rebuilding year, although the NCAA’s would still be well within reach.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

at Arkansas (W)
vs. Mississippi State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

27-4, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #3 seed
Round One: vs. LSU (W6)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 3 seed

Wednesday odds…

Overall: 132-31 (81.0%)
Vs. Spread: 58-53 (52.3%)
Overall (SEC): 39-13 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 25-26 (49.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(12-14, 4- South Carolina [#133] vs. (10-16, 3-9) LSU [#175]
Spread: South Carolina by 7.5
Pick: LSU - Although the Gamecocks should win, LSU has been improving and this shouldn’t be a blowout.
—Keys: LSU is entirely too unpredictable lately to make any pick of their games with confidence. The Tigers will need to extend their defense against USC’s three-point shooting, and the Gamecocks will need to keep Thornton and Randolph in check.

(12-13, 3-9) Georgia [#132] vs. (20-7, 7-5) Florida [#58]
Spread: Georgia by 1
Pick: Florida - This is one of the more obvious picks of the season. The Bulldogs simply don’t have the talent to match up with the Gators, although Florida is young and playing on the road.
—Keys: Calathes vs. Gaines - which will be contained more effectively?

(18-8, 9-3) Mississippi State [#40] vs. (14-11, 4- Auburn [#126]
Spread: Miss. State by 12.5
Pick: Miss. State - The Bulldogs took care of the Tigers in Auburn by 19. This is obviously a mismatch for Auburn size-wise, and should be a blowout.
—Keys:  The Tigers absolutely must stay out of foul trouble and find open shots against a potent defense to stay in the game.

(15-10, 9-3) Kentucky [#65] vs. (18-8, 4- Ole Miss [#43]
Spread: Kentucky by 3
Pick: Kentucky - The Rebels have fallen off lately, and the Wildcats know this is a must-win to keep their dim NCAA hopes alive.
—Keys: Watch the Patterson vs. Curtis matchup. The Rebels will need to hit some threes against the talented Kentucky defense.

(14-13, 3-9) Alabama [#130] vs. (18-8, 7-5) Arkansas [#36]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Arkansas - I’m going with the Razorbacks in the win, although the Tide have been tough both away and home and simply haven’t closed out games.
—Keys: If the Tide keep Hendrix out of foul trouble, they have a shot - he is absolutely necessary in the game to keep it close. The Razorbacks will need to take advantage of a very, very weak defense.

Saturday odds…

Overall: 129-29 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-51 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 36-11 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-24 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 18-6

(14-10, 8-3) Kentucky [#73] vs. (18-7, 7-4) Arkansas [#35]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: Kentucky - The Wildcats are playing well at home and the Razorbacks are playing poorly on the road.
—Keys: Kentucky’s excellent free throw shooting should win them the game

(12-13, 4-7) South Carolina [#118] vs. (17-8, 8-3) Mississippi State [#44]
Spread: Miss. State by 3
Pick: South Carolina - The Gamecocks have the shooting, especially at home, to win this game. USC is one of the SEC’s best three-point shooting teams.
—Keys: As MSU’s defense has been lagging recently, the Bulldogs will need to defend the three to have a chance to win

(22-4, 7-4) #20 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (12-12, 3- Georgia [#129]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 7
Pick: Vanderbilt - The Commodores’ offense should overcome the Dogs’ defense relatively easily.
—Keys: Watch out for the Gaines vs. Foster matchup

(9-16, 2-9) LSU [#184] vs. (18-7, 4-7) Ole Miss [#41]
Spread: Ole Miss by 4
Pick: Ole Miss - Although the Tigers are playing better, the Rebels are playing for the NCAA Tournament.
—Keys: This game is a potential back-breaker for the Rebels…how will the freshman handle the pressure?

Wednesday games…

Overall: 129-29 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-51 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 36-11 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-24 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 18-6

(18-7, 7-4) Arkansas [87] vs. (9-16, 2-9) LSU [61]: This game went about how the records would indicate it should. Arkansas’ scoring was impressively balanced, led by Ervin’s 7-of-13 shooting for 17 points and 6 rebounds, while Townes hit a perfect 6-of-6 to score 12 and add 7 rebounds. Welsh and Weems also scored in double digits, while Beverly actually fell just one short but claimed 9 rebounds. LSU simply couldn’t get anything going on offense against Arkansas’ potent defense, with Randolph, Johnson, and Martin combining for 38 attempts and 19 makes.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks move just a game back in the West, but will need to learn to play on the road to compete with MSU. Regardless, 2 more wins should solidify an NCAA bid, but 3 would be unquestionable.
Impact [LSU]: Very little, except soundly ending any momentum the Tigers may have had moving towards the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas shooting 15.6% better than LSU from the field

(20-7, 7-5) Florida [85] vs. (12-13, 4-7) South Carolina [82]: The Gators’ lack of defense almost bit them again (pun intended), but they squeaked out a win in a game that otherwise would have been a NCAA-hope downer. Both teams were absolutely on fire from the field, with Florida better from the field and USC better from long range and both poor from the charity stripe. Five Gators scored in double digits, led by Calathes’ 6-of-11 shooting, with Speights scoring 10 and claiming 10 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season. Baniulis and Downey each led the Gamecocks with 18 points on a collective 13-of-27 shooting effort while freshman Mike Holmes scored a season-high 16 points and recorded his first double-double of the season with 11 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: This is a sign more than ever that the Gators absolutely have to buckle down on defense or there will be some one-and-dones in their near future. Florida will likely need to win at least two more to solidify their stake in the NCAA’s due to a very weak non-conference schedule.
Impact [South Carolina]: It’s all about the SEC Tournament now, as the Gamecocks are likely out of the question for any postseason play.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 12-of-23 (52.2%) from three

(18-7, 4-7) Ole Miss [74] vs. (17-8, 8-3) Mississippi State [63]: Interesting how each team seemed to be overly focused on the other - as can happen in intense rivalry games. Both teams started the game absolutely on fire, as MSU began hitting 8 of their first 9 shots. Both teams then went into a slump, began hitting shots down the stretch, and naturally the home team finished with a slight advantage. Neither team shot spectacularly, with Ole Miss owning a slight advantage in that collumn as well. Warren brought home 22 points, assisted by his 18 shot attempts, while Curtis proved his interior dominance with 10 points and a tremendous 16 rebounds for his 13th double-double of the season. Gordon led State with 20 points in a similar case to Warren, attempting 17 shots and 11 of those from behind the arc, while Stewart led MSU in rebounding with 8.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The win was certainly a boost for the Rebels, who are desperately clawing for an argument for NCAA Tournament inclusion despite a gaudy overall record. The Rebs likely need to win 4 more (with 5 games remaining plus the SEC Tournament) to make the Big Dance.
Impact [Miss. State]: This was one of the more winnable games remaining on MSU’s very tough remainder to the schedule. With just a game lead in the West, State will need to win at least 2 more to feel slightly comfortable with a win in the SEC Tournament to make the NCAA’s, 3 more to be a lock.
Stat of the Game: Curtis responsible for 39.0% of Ole Miss’ rebounds

(24-2, 11-1) #2 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-11, 3- Auburn [70]: The Volunteers certainly proved they were not looking ahead to Saturday’s #1 vs. #2 matchup in this game, leading at halftime 46-20. Auburn got absolutely nothing going on offense and Tennessee tickled the bottom of the net time after time, also outrebounding the Tigers. Lofton shot just 4-of-10 from the floor but led the Vols with 19 points, and Tyler Smith notched 13 points and rebounds apiece for his 5th double-double of the season and 2nd in a row. Tolbert and Prowell supplied nearly all of Auburn’s offense with a combined 45 points and 16 rebounds on 14-of-32 shooting, with Tolbert respsonsible for 10 rebounds to record his 1st double-double of the season.
Impact [Tennessee]: No harm no foul as the Volunteers battle #1 Memphis this weekend for a stake as the nation’s #1 overall seed.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers will likely need to win out to even have an argument for the NIT - it’s about time to begin building up momentum for the SEC Tournament because that’s not going to happen.
Stat of the Game: 9 Tennessee players scoring at least 4 points

Tuesday game, Wednesday Odds…

Overall: 126-28 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-47 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 33-10 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-20 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 17-6

Tuesday Game

(14-10, 8-3) Kentucky [61] vs. (12-12, 3- Georgia [55]: Dominating early, the Wildcats fell into desparity late in the game while the Bulldogs hit three after three, bringing the game within striking distance. Unfortunately for Georgia, that wasn’t enough. Highlighting the ‘Cats’ lack of depth, Crawford and Patterson combined for 70.5% of Kentucky’s points, with Crawford responsible for 23 points on 4-of-9 shooting from long range and Patterson pitching in 20 on 8-of-15 shooting and 9 rebounds. Bradley strangely led the team in rebounding with 12, but the SEC’s best free-throw shooter was 0-of-2 from the charity stripe. Woodbury led the Bulldogs in scoring with 15 on just 5-of-15 shooting, while Gaines marked his third double-double of the season with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists to three turnovers.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are desperately trying to bolster their NCAA argument and losing at home to Georgia would have been a knockout blow. The ‘Cats absolutely can’t afford a loss to a “lower” team at this point, and still need to finish 4-1 or 5-0 to even come close to the bubble.
Impact [Georgia]: As proven last night, the Bulldogs just don’t have the depth off the bench to keep their starters rested in big games. Any postseason is becoming unlikely at this point.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s bench responsible for just 4.9% of their scoring

Wednesday Odds

(23-2, 10-1) #2 Tennessee [#1] vs. (13-10, 3-7) Auburn [#147]
Spread: Tennessee by 16.5
Pick: Auburn - Although the Vols should win easily, the Tigers have the shooting prowess and speed to keep this reasonable.
—Keys: Auburn’s three-point shooting - the Vols have a decent defense and Auburn will be playing on the road. If the Tigers can manage to hit some from behind the arc, the game could be close.

(17-7, 3-7) Ole Miss [#47] vs. (17-7, 8-2) Mississippi State [#43]
Spread: Ole Miss by 1.5
Pick: Mississippi State - By rule of momentum and comparison, MSU should win. The Rebels seem to be floundering, State has played well on the road, and the Rebels lost to a much worse Auburn team at home.
—Keys: Points in the paint - the guards should come close to even, so Rhodes and Curtis will be relied upon heavily to contribute. Also, Warren or Gordon’s ability to get to the rim could define the outcome.

(19-7, 6-5) Florida [#57] vs. (12-12, 4-6) South Carolina [#117]
Spread: Florida by 8.5
Pick: Florida - Although the Gators have been struggling recently, the home crowd should give the potent offense the confidence they so desperately need.
—Keys: Florida’s offense - Although Downey will almost no doubt score more than 20, the Gamecocks won’t be able to compete offensively if the Gators can get their shooting touch back.

(17-7, 6-4) Arkansas [#32] vs. (9-15, 2- LSU [#185]
Spread: Arkansas by 12
Pick: LSU - Not long ago this would have been an easy pick the other way. With LSU’s newly-found motivation, this should be a