2009-10 SEC Basketball Previews: LSU

Trent Johnson inherited a quite favorable situation last year in his first year as head coach of the LSU Tigers.

The Tigers had a Final Four appearance still rather close-by in their rear-view mirrors and returned an excellent amount of depth and talent. Granted, from a team that massively underachieved the year before.

LSU had all the pieces to surprise some teams in the West entering November 2008.

The rest, however, was coaching.

Johnson quickly seized his opportunity and LSU tore through their schedule (other than a massive 30-point blowout loss at Utah) and seemed poised to lose just a single game in-conference heading into March.

And then, rather inexplicably, LSU fell apart. The Tigers lost four of their last six games, and flamed out of an outstanding season which carried heavy post-season expectations.

Ironically, Johnson and his squad find themselves in a similar position this preseason.

LSU loses around 15 percent more production than any other SEC squad, including SEC Player of the Year Marcus Thornton, who ranked second in the league at 21.1 points per outing and second amongst league guards in field-goal percentage.

Also gone is the league’s second-best defensive big-man in Chris Johnson, one of the better ball-handlers in Garrett Temple, and talented all-around contributors in Terry Martin, Quintin Thornton and Delwan Graham.

With more to replace than any other team in the league, LSU’s recruiting class leaves a lot to be desired.

 

Aaron Dotson
(#27 SG – 3 stars – 6′4″ – 194lbs)

Dotson has lots of potential and great size for his position. His shooting has nice form, but the range needs to increase a bit. Considering the utter lack of depth, Dotson has a good chance of starting, and will see heavy minutes regardless.

Eddie Ludwig
(#39 SF – 3 stars – 6′7″ – 195lbs)

Ludwig is an all-around player, but needs to work on his speed and man-to-man evasiveness to maximize his impact at the collegiate level.

 

So, by my calculations, LSU is left with seven available scholarship players heading into 2009-10. Looks like Arkansas isn’t the only SEC team that needs to hold open tryouts.

Here’s a look at what remains on the LSU roster.

Tasmin Mitchell  - 6′7″, 245lb Senior PF
(16.3ppg – 7.2rpg – 52.2% FG – 55 stl)

Mitchell will undoubtedly step into the position of big-time scorer that Thornton vacated for the Tigers, and could be a darkhorse for the league’s Player of the Year.

Mitchell is one of the league’s most efficient rebounders, scorers and on-ball defenders, and will be relied upon very heavily this season. Will start.

Bo Spencer  - 6′2″, 186lb Junior SG
(11.4ppg – 2.9rpg – 40.3% 3PT – 1.38 A/TO)

Spencer is one the SEC’s most unheralded shooters and overall players. He is outstandingly potent from behind the arc as well as the charity stripe and handles the ball with care.

Spencer is marketedly unselfish, though his defense is severely lacking. He also is not particularly adept at shooting under pressure. Should start.

Storm Warren  - 6′7″, 230lb Sophomore PF
(2.0ppg – 1.8rpg – 15 blk – 42.9% FG)

Warren is more talented than his numbers show, though he’s very rough around the edges on on-ball defense and ball-handling.

If he can figure out the game and learn some decision-making, he could play a valuable role for the Tigers.

Alex Farrer  - 6′5″, 200lb Senior SG
(1.7ppg – 0.8rpg – 72.2% FT – 1.06 A/TO)

Farrer isn’t a standard bench-warmer, as he can provide some valuable minutes without being a liability. His ball-handling and decent mark from the charity stripe alone warrants him playing time.

 

Although there’s simply no denying Johnson’s coaching talents, 2009-10 should be a long season without some miracles.

 

Schedule Breakdown

Cupcakes : UL-Monroe (H), Indiana St. (H), UL-Lafayette (H), Northwestern St. (H), Southeastern Louisiana (H), Nicholls St. (H), Rice (H), McNeese St. (H)

Real Games : Utah (H)

Marquee Matchups : Washington St. (A), Xavier (A)

Opposite Division : South Carolina (A), Florida (A), Tennessee (H), Kentucky (H), Vanderbilt (A), Georgia (H)

Predicted Result : (13-14, 4-12), No Postseason

Analysis : This is an appropriate schedule for a team that should struggle. Some chances at big upsets and plenty of cupcakes.

 

What’s Returning

Points : 41.61 percent (12th—SEC Avg: 73.81 percent)

Rebounds : 36.17 percent (12th—SEC Avg: 75.80 percent)

 

One of many positives of a talented coach is that the possibility of a surprisingly positive season is always present. Johnson won’t have much depth to work with this season, but stranger things have happened.

2008-09 SEC Floor General Award

After the big move, I continue this series, which is nearing its completion. This category obviously focuses on talented point guards in the league, based on assists-per-minute. However, as I research more I’ve noticed this statistic is hugely dependant on the shooting prowess of the players around the point guard.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.  

 

The winner is…

 

NICK CALATHES – Florida, Overseas – 5.19 – Last Year: 5.31
Calathes was one of the greatest true point guards this league has seen in a long while. Calathes was a spectacular leader on and off the court, could handle the ball with extreme care, was a dead-eye shooter and possessed an outstanding knowledge of the game. Florida’s chances at making noise this season dropped drastically when Calathes decided to go pro in Greece.

The others…

2. Courtney Fortson – Arkansas, Sophomore – 5.53 – Last Year: N.A.
The Razorbacks would have been absolutely lost without Fortson a year ago. Fortson has energy to spare and is a solid shot, but may be the league’s only player who can compare his awareness to that of Nick Calathes as a freshman/sophomore. Fortson could stand to be a bit less selfish, as he took too many shots at too small a percentage, but he looks to be one of the league’s future stars.

3. Kevin Galloway – Kentucky, Senior – 5.77 – Last Year: N.A.
Galloway saw a decent amount of minutes last season, and started five times, but isn’t a talented enough all-around player to be a true roleplayer for the Kentucky Blue. His ability to see the open man is impressive, however, and he should serve as a legitimate option off the bench at point-guard for Kentucky next season.

4. DeAndre Liggins – Kentucky, Sophomore – 6.00 – Last Year: N.A.
Liggins had one goal as a freshman: Get the ball to Meeks. With Meeks gone to the NBA and a couple of much-hyped ball-handlers recruited into the program, Liggins will likely be playing backup in 2009-10. Complementing that fact was Liggins’ poor shooting and aptitude to turn the ball over, as this stat was fluffed big-time by Meeks’ 40% three-point percentage.

5. Chris Bass – LSU, Sophomore – 6.42 – Last Year: N.A.
Bass’ assist-to-turnover ratio in his limited minutes were nothing short of jaw-dropping, but he did nothing else well. He was a liability as a shooter, and shyed away from physical contact. Bass has a lot of improving to do before he can contribute heavily for the Tigers.

6. Zac Swansey – Georgia, Transfer – 6.92 – Last Year: 10.24
Plagued with off-the-court issues, Swansey and Felton agreed that a transfer would be best for his future playing opportunities. Georgia lost a very competent ball-handler, but a ball-hog who didn’t bring down nearly as many shots as he should have.

7. Twany Beckham – Mississippi State, Sophomore – 7.10 – Last Year: N.A.
Recently discovering two bone spurs, one in each hip, Beckham learned he won’t be able to play this season. This will give the red-shirted sophomore an opportunity to work on his aggression and ball-handling, both of which need to improve. Beckham played point for State’s “second team” as it was known, and that spot should fall to either Stewart or Turner this season.

8. Devan Downey – South Carolina, Senior – 7.28 – Last Year: 6.96
Most hoops fans across the nation know about Downey at this point, as he is small, quick and agile along with serving as a massively potent leader for the Gamecocks. Downey shoots well and makes excellent decisions, and this stat sagged almost entirely due to his surrounding cast and not himself.

9. Dee Bost – Mississippi State, Sophomore – 7.29 – Last Year: N.A.
Perhaps one of the most all-around impressive freshman in 2008-09, Bost seems destined to be a star in the SEC. Bost showed senior-like leadership, was one of the league’s best ball-handlers and shot competently. Regardless of who you are, an assist-to-turnover ratio of more than 1.5 is impressive for a freshman.

10. Dustin Ware – Georgia, Sophomore – 7.44 – Last Year: N.A.
Ware would certainly be nominated for a most underrated SEC freshman award, as his performance was very, very solid in every aspect of the game. Ware is a very good shooter and impressive decision-maker, and handles the ball very well – especially for a sophomore-to-be. Ware should be a talented anchor for Fox’s upcoming Georgia squad.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…

 

1. Festus Ezeli – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 360.00 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Malcolm White – Ole Miss, Transfer – 255.67 – Last Year: N.A.

3. Sam Muldrow – South Carolina, Junior – 182.00 – Last Year: 53.88

4. Kenny Kadji – Florida, Sophomore – 106.50 – Last Year: N.A.

5. Yamene Coleman – Alabama, Left Team – 91.50 – Last Year: 51.00

6. Austin Steed – South Carolina, Junior – 89.80 – Last Year: 29.00

7. Mike Holmes – South Carolina, Junior – 71.08 – Last Year: 51.25

8. Albert Jackson – Georgia, Senior – 55.36 – Last Year: 37.07

9. Elgin Bailey – Mississippi State, Junior – 48.33 – Last Year: 212.00

10. Lance Gouldbourne – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 46.43 – Last Year: N.A.

2008-09 SEC Boardmaster Award

Quickly moving on to rebounding, one of the most important categories on the list.

This stat will point out the most efficient glass-cleaners in the league, those who aggressively and accurately are able to grab their share of rebounds on a consistent basis.

This ranking is almost exclusively big-men, and height and good hands tends to help.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.  

The winner is…

 

BRIAN WILLIAMS – Tennessee, Junior – 2.96 – Last Year: 3.22
Williams is one of the more underrated players in the league, and certainly the most underrated rebounder. Get this number…assuming Williams’ numbers would increase proportionally, if he were to play 40 minutes he’d average 13.7 rebounds per game. Oh, and he shoots over 50 percent from the floor and is a solid post defender as well. Williams will never be a star, but is probably the single-best role-player in the league.

The others…

2. Michael Washington – Arkansas, Senior – 3.06 – Last Year: 3.39
Washington was one of the biggest surprises of the SEC last year, and likely would have challenged for SEC Player of the Year had Arkansas not tanked. He nearly has no weakness other than ball-handling, and is an absolutely dominating presence in the paint offensively.

3. Korvotney Barber – Auburn, Graduated – 3.09 - Last Year: 3.85
Barber was one of many players in the league last year who had to nearly carry their teams on their respective backs, and he did so in impressive fashion. He had, at times in his collegiate career, led the nation in shooting percentage but suffered from the same drawbacks as most big-men: poor free-throw shooting and ball-handling.

4. Jarvis Varnado – Mississippi State, Senior – 3.19 – Last Year: 3.67
Varnado is often billed as a one-trick pony, but he is anything but. Varnado, with his extreme length and huge hands, is a phenomenal rebounder, efficient scorer and will break the all-time NCAA record for blocks, assuming he avoids injury. This guy changes the game in many, many ways and on the glass is but one of them.

5. Wayne Chism – Tennessee, Senior – 3.20 – Last Year: 3.97
Chism is my vote for more underrated player in the SEC, as his efficiency numbers are absolutely through the roof for a big-man. He handles the ball very well, has a very effective jump-shot and is solid from the charity stripe, and is even a great defender. There’s not much this guy can’t do with great skill.

6. Delwan Graham – LSU, Left Team – 3.22 – Last Year: N.A.
Graham was probably the single-most potential-filled freshman from a year ago, and noone knew it because of Thornton. Graham, as a big-man, had a 1.00 assist-to-turnover ratio. That’s an admirable number for any player, much less a big-guy. Needless to say he shot over 50 percent from the floor and rebounded like crazy. Shows what a waste off-the-court issues can be for a young, talented players.

7. Jamychal Green – Alabama, Sophomore – 3.29 – Last Year: N.A.
Green played up to his expectations, as he entered the league as one of the most heralded incoming freshmen. To say Green had little surrounding support is a drastic understatement, but he still managed to pose a huge threat offensively and was a great rebounder. If he can manage to hold on to the ball a bit better and work on his decision-making, he has a shot at the next level.

8. Murphy Holloway – Ole Miss, Sophomore – 3.33 – Last Year: N.A.
Holloway is a rare breed. He’s one of few big-men that can honestly claim he is among the best on both offense and defense. His hoops instincts are obvious, and his scoring/rebounding prowess is formidable. He should, however, work on his face-up game.

9. Chris Johnson – LSU, Graduated – 3.49 – Last Year: 4.52
Johnson was much like Mississippi State’s Varnado in that he was underweight but extremely long with big hands, seeming to be able to leap up and just wiggle his arms until a rebound fell into his grasp. Johnson was more of a rebounding/blocking specialist, as he wasn’t very adept offensively.

10. Trey Thompkins – Georgia, Sophomore – 3.54 – Last Year: N.A.
Thompkins is extremely versatile, shooting nearly 40 percent from long distance. His decision-making is awful, however. He has the tools to be an absolute star for Fox’s Bulldogs, but he’s got some refining to do. It would be difficult to find someone as purely talented on both ends of the floor as he, though.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…

 

1. Robert Wilder – South Carolina, Senior – 28.60 – Last Year: 7.00

2. Chris Warren – Ole Miss, Junior – 22.24 – Last Year: 15.73

3. Walter Hodge – Florida, Graduated – 19.00 – Last Year: 14.50

4. Brandon Hollinger – Alabama, Graduated – 17.75 – Last Year: 15.69

5. Will Bogan – Ole Miss, Sophomore – 17.27 – Last Year: N.A.

6. Rotnei Clarke – Arkansas, Sophomore – 16.86 – Last Year: N.A.

7. Erving Walker – Florida, Sophomore – 16.40 – Last Year: N.A.

8. Dustin Ware – Georgia, Sophomore – 14.87 – Last Year: N.A.

9. Michael Porter – Kentucky, Left Team – 13.89 – Last Year: 13.28

10. Anthony Brock – Alabama, Senior – 12.96 – Last Year: N.A.

2008-09 SEC Pinball Award

So my titles are creative, what of it?

This award will cap off the shooting awards, as it focuses on the players who are most aggressive with the ball and least afraid to draw a foul. This, obviously, is calculated by minutes per free throws attempted.

This category is unique in that it has absolutely nothing to do with shooting, and everything to do with less tangible aspects of the game. A player who gets to the line a lot tends to…(A) Handle the ball a great deal, (B) Be very physical and fearless, and (C) Be a post player. This category can help single out potential leaders for teams as well as identify young players who understand the game well.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless. 

 

The winner is…

 

A.J. OGILVY – Vanderbilt, Junior – 4.08 – Last Year: 3.91
Ogilvy places as the first player in the league to claim two titles, and he does so from the charity stripe. Ogilvy is often regarded as “soft”, but this statistic alone proves otherwise. Despite his quiet demeanor on the court, Ogilvy is fierce offensively and is super-aggressive under the basket.

The others…

2. Tyler Smith – Tennessee, Senior – 4.99 – Last Year: 6.36
Smith has a well-known mean-streak, and handles the ball excessively due to his extreme versatility. Smith is a decent three-point shooter, has a solid jumper and can drive the basket along with handling the ball unlike most any other big-man in the league.

3. Brian Johnson – Mississippi State, Graduated – 5.14 – Last Year: 14.36
Johnson was never more than a solid role-player for the Bulldogs, and tended to be haphazardly aggressive in his limited minutes. He had a very poor 0.30 assist-to-turnover ratio, and served often times as more of a liability than an extra body.

4. Michael Washington – Arkansas, Senior – 5.27 – Last Year: 7.67
Washington had to all but carry his entire team, much less the paint, a season ago. He did so by becoming one of the league’s most outstanding big-men, absolutely dominating his area offensively. Washington also has a fiery temper, and is clearly the emotional leader for the Razorbacks.

5. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, NBA Draft – 5.29 – Last Year: 7.50
Meeks was probably the best all-around player in the league last season, as he once again makes a Top Ten list. Especially impressive here, as he was also the league’s best three-point shooter. Meeks served as about 40 percent of his team’s offense, and in the process handled the ball a great deal. That coupled with his speed to the basket earned him this spot.

6. Chris Warren – Ole Miss, Junior – 5.48 – Last Year: 10.54
Warren would’ve been in the discussion for SEC Player of the Year if he hadn’t gone down in his 11th game last season. Warren is tremendously talented and is extremely potent on every end of the floor. Serving as the Rebels’ point guard, he serves as the team’s ball-handler and also owns impressive speed.

7. Marcus Thornton – LSU, Graduated – 5.58 – Last Year: 9.07
Yet another guard who shows up on this list. Thornton, to be fair, is the least guard-like of them as his frame says more forward. His shot doesn’t, though. Thornton was much like Meeks in that he carried his team offensively, and was aggressive with the ball in his hands.

8. Storm Warren – LSU, Sophomore – 5.74 – Last Year: N.A.
For a freshman to show up on this list is nothing short of impressive. Warren is a bit of a work-in-progress and effectively served as a big-man for Johnson’s squad. His shooting isn’t exactly impressive, and neither is his ball-handling, but with this passion Warren could step up into the shoes of the departing Thornton as the team’s leader on the court.

9. David Huertas – Ole Miss, Overseas – 5.76 – Last Year: 16.27
Huertas, much like Meeks and Thornton, carried his team offensively a year ago. Unlike those two, however, Huertas was forced into that position by a string of injuries that sidelines three Rebel starters. Huertas had speed and athleticism to spare, and certainly filled the roles of “leader” exceptionally well.

10. Jeffery Taylor – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 5.79 – Last Year: N.A.
As impressive as Warren’s appearance on this list was, Taylor’s is probably moreso. Taylor exhibited a much higher willingness to take a jumper and proved to be a solid all-around defender and ball-handler. Taylor has the makings of a future SEC star.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…

 

1. Michael Porter – Kentucky, Left Team – 38.50 – Last Year: 48.13

2. Riley Benock – Mississippi State, Junior – 34.08 – Last Year: 28.50

3. Joe Duffy – Vanderbilt, Junior – 31.50 – Last Year: 9.50

4. Marcus Britt – Arkansas, Junior – 28.30 – Last Year: 20.22

5. Brandon Hollinger – Alabama, Graduated – 25.82 – Last Year: 24.00

6. Ravern Johnson – Mississippi State, Junior – 23.91 – Last Year: 18.70

7. Dan Werner – Florida, Senior – 23.79 – Last Year: 14.85

8. Evaldas Banilius – South Carolina, Senior – 22.68 – Last Year: 76.29

9. Branden Conrad – South Carolina, Graduated – 22.58 – Last Year: 7.67

10. Darshawn McClellan – Vanderbilt, Junior – 21.79 – Last Year: 10.89

2008-09 SEC Mr. Clutch Award

Having triumphantly returned to the South after driving over 5,500 miles to California and back, I return this series back to its former glory.

The Mr. Clutch Award is awarded to the player with the least amounts of minutes per free-throws made. This award is clearly representative of a player who can not only challenge his defender (mostly in the paint) but has a clean and efficient stroke from the line as well.

These guys generally have good numbers from any range and are crucial to have on the floor late in games.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

 

The winner is…

 

A.J. OGILVY – Vanderbilt, Junior – 5.83 – Last Year: 5.09
Ogilvy was the all-around subjective winner a year ago, but his efficiency numbers fell drastically from a year ago due to his increased burden after Foster’s departure. Ogilvy is one of the most purely talented players in the league and remains one of the most efficient. Despite a rap for being “weak”, Ogilvy’s ability to get to the line proves otherwise.

The others…

2. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, NBA Draft – 5.86 – Last Year: 9.44
This number is especially impressive considering Meeks’ specialty as an outside shooter. Meeks attempted more free throws than anyone else in the league (234) and had the best percentage from that range as well (90.2%). Meeks was likely the best performer at the charity stripe that the league has seen in quite some time, if ever.

3. Chris Warren – Ole Miss, Junior – 6.41 – Last Year: 13.14
Warren is very Meeks-like in his speed and athleticism, but not the shooter and a better ball-handler. Warren speed and aggressiveness to the basket gets him a healthy amount of attempts from the stripe, and he is liekly the league’s best returning free-throw shooter.

4. Tyler Smith – Tennessee, Senior – 6.51 – Last Year: 9.00
Smith is one of the most well-known and well-respected big men in the conference, and certainly for his extreme versatility. Smith is easily the most versatile player in the conference, with one of the most aggressive attitudes – as this stat certainly proves.

5. David Huertas – Ole Miss, Overseas – 7.15 – Last Year: 20.70
Huertas had to step up in a big way after Ole Miss’ devastating injuries, and he did so with style. Huertas was an excellent slasher and great shooter, combining to make him a force on the free throw stripe.

6. Marcus Thornton – LSU, Graduated – 7.49 – Last Year: 11.10
Thornton was a do-everything, immortal SEC Player of the Year and this number comes straight from his load of carrying his team offensively. Thornton worked on increasing his driving efficiency and requiring less treys, and it paid off.

7. Kodi Augustus – Mississippi State, Junior – 7.81 – Last Year: 13.00
Augustus was one of the more unheralded players in the league last year, as most SEC fans knew he was a sleeping giant forced on the bench due to off-the-court issues. He proved himself in the SEC Tournament, and showed himself to be one of the most fierce competitors in the league.

8. Mikhail Torrance – Alabama, Senior – 7.92 – Last Year: 17.43
Torrance is an example of an exception, where his jumper isn’t the best around but his effort from the charity stripe is outstanding. Torrance is a solid role-player, but won’t be a force for the Tide next year, as this number comes mostly from his percentage: 88.4 percent.

9. Jeffery Taylor – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 8.39 – Last Year: N.A.
Taylor was a tremendous player for the Commodores last year, starting every game. His overall percentages were outstanding, but his outside shot – and even free-throw shot – needs to increase. With his ability to make plays offensively, Taylor could be a force with a refined stroke.

10. Emmanuel Negedu – Tennessee, Sophomore – 8.43 – Last Year: N.A.
Negedu is a major work-in-progress for the Vols, but an efficient and potential-filled one. Negedu has a nice stroke but needs to work on his rebounding to be a consistent source of minutes.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…

 

1. Drazen Zlovaric – Georgia, Sophomore – 85.00 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Chris Bass – LSU, Sophomore – 55.20 – Last Year: N.A.

3. Riley Benock – Mississippi State, Junior – 51.13 – Last Year: 45.60

4. Michael Porter – Kentucky, Left Team – 49.82 – Last Year: 55.00

5. Robert Wilder – South Carolina, Senior – 47.67 – Last Year: N.A.

6. Darshawn McClellan – Vanderbilt, Junior – 43.58 – Last Year: 21.77

7. Josh Tabb – Tennessee, Senior – 43.54 – Last Year: N.A.

8. Kevil Cantinol – Ole Miss, Sophomore – 43.50 – Last Year: N.A.

9. Joe Duffy – Vanderbilt, Junior – 42.00 – Last Year: 9.50

10. DeAundre Cranston – Ole Miss, Senior – 40.31 – Last Year: N.A.

2008-09 SEC Bomber Award

The next addition to the series is the SEC’s player most willing to fire the bomb from long-range. Considering this is formulated as minutes per three attempted, this category relies heavily upon a player’s three-point percentage and the amount of minutes played, along with other intangibles such as what role the player filled on the team. So, needless to say, this isn’t necessarily a positive category nor a negative one.

Wanted to note that I’ve gotten a couple of tips that these rankings seem to be a bit dry. Unfortunately, that’s the nature of the beast with these rankings, and there’s not much I can do to improve that. These posts are serving as something interesting and unique to quell the true college hoops fan’s hunger for the sport until the season comes around. Once the categories have been exhausted, I’ll be breaking down incoming recruits, and eventually moving onto preseason awards and rankings. Until then, skim over (or absorb) these posts!

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

 

The winner is…

 

TROY BREWER – Georgia, Transfer – 3.75 – Last Year: 3.29
Brewer was a work in progress from the moment he stepped foot on Georgia’s campus. Brewer had talent but was an absolutely awful shooter, considering his 22.5 percent effort from behind the arc despite attempting an average of over 10 per every 40 minutes. Brewer never saw the amount of minutes he wanted and opted to transfer after two years under Dennis Felton.

The others…

2. Tay Waller – Auburn, Senior – 3.82 – Last Year: N.A.
Waller, already awared the 2008-09 Nothin’ But Net Award, was arguably a more potent three-point threat than the famed Jodie Meeks of the Wildcat Blue last season. Waller served as Auburn’s main (if not only) offensive weapon from long-range, and he was an extremely effective one. He’d challenge for SEC Player of the Year is the Tigers had a chance to be a good team in 2009-10.

3. Renaldo Woolridge – Tennessee, Sophomore – 4.10 – Last Year: N.A.
Woolridge excelled in no area other than ball-handling and selflessness in his freshman season with the Vols. The guard/forward barely hit 30 percent from the floor and was under 28 percebt from three yet hoisted 69 of his 90 shot attempts on the year from there. Woolridge has an enormous amount of improvement to endure before truly becoming competitive in the SEC.

4. Rickey McPhee – Georgia, Senior - 4.26 – Last Year: N.A.
Proving the ineptitude of Georgia’s offense under Felton, McPhee ranks as the second UGA player in the SEC’s top-four most prolific three-point shooters. Unlike Brewer, however, McPhee has a workable game with a nice jump-shot. If McPhee could become more versatile inside the three-point line, he could play an important role in Georgia’s backcourt next season.

5. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, NBA Draft – 4.30 – Last Year: 5.10
Meeks, one of the league’s biggest superstars in 2008-09, clocks in with his fourth-consecutive positive mention and the only player to have made all four lists thus far. Meeks has always been a dangerous shooter, and he was called upon to step up last season by Gillispie. He did so in an enormous way, serving as the only SEC player to qualify for the league’s minimum attempts and shoot over 40 percent from three. Meeks’ departure was a massive blow for Kentucky.

6. David Huertas – Ole Miss, Overseas – 4.38 – Last Year: 4.38
Although it’s irrelevant, this was the first player I’ve noticed to match his efficiency number from the previous year. Pretty neat. Anyway, Huertas’ loss should limit or destroy the Rebels’ chances at overtaking MSU in the West next season, as he poured in over 18 points per game from all over the floor.

7. Rotnei Clarke – Arkansas, Sophomore – 4.47 – Last Year: N.A.
Clarke is one of, if not the single-most talented rising sophomores in the league. Clarke did everything for the Razorbacks last season, and did so with efficiency numbers generally saved for upperclassmen. Clarke will be an SEC superstar if Arkansas can ever find its feet, although this seems unlikely for 2009-10 due to the team’s heavy off-season losses.

8. Chris Warren – Ole Miss, Junior – 4.67 – Last Year: 4.22
Warren suffered a season-ending injury toward the early part of the season, and his team suffered heavily because of it. Warren is nothing short of a genius at the point-guard position, and is a tremendous all-around asset for the Rebels. Warren shot effectively from three during his freshman season but barely hit 30 percent of them last season.

9. Cameron Tatum – Tennessee, Sophomore – 4.67 – Last Year: N.A.
Tatum is a talented guard/forward who suffered from the Vols’ lack of guards a season ago. He put up 134 threes in 217 attempts and brought down just 32.1% of those. Tatum is competitive at every aspect of the game, but needs to improve to challenge for a starting position. His free-throw percentage, defense and rebounding all need tweeking.

10. Brandon Hollinger – Alabama, Graduated – 4.98 – Last Year: 7.49
Hollinger was a backup shooter whose effectiveness absolutely plummeted when senior Ronald Steele left the team. Steele was one of the league’s best point guards, and was able to build a chemistry with Hollinger that led him to hit over 43 percent of his threes during his junior year. During his last year for the Crimson Tide, he shot just 17.5 percent from that range.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…
Minimum of 10 total threes attempted set

 

1. Perry Stevenson – Kentucky, Senior – 101.00 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Tasmin Mitchell – LSU, Senior – 59.84 – Last Year: 13.20

3. Brian Williams – Tennessee, Junior – 55.90 – Last Year: 185.00

4. Terrance Henry – Ole Miss, Junior – 34.65 – Last Year: N.A.

5. J.P. Prince – Tennessee, Senior – 34.08 – Last Year: 39.08

6. Michael Washington – Arkansas, Senior – 30.03 – Last Year: 17.33

7. A.J. Ogilvy – Vanderbilt, Junior – 29.59 – Last Year: 448.00

8. Ramon Harris – Kentucky, Senior – 27.36 – Last Year: 24.36

9. Ray Shipman – Florida, Sophomore – 23.70 – Last Year: N.A.

10. Darshawn McClellan – Vanderbilt, Junior – 22.74 – Last Year: 47.90

2008-09 SEC Nothin’ But Net Award

Continuing the series, this award goes to the most efficient three-point shooter in the conference. This category, as a whole, is mostly positive and doesn’t rely too heavily on any others, although three-point percentage and number of attempts would be relevant. While it’s possible for a poor shooter to make this list, it’s not likely.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

 

The winner is…

 

TAY WALLER – Auburn, Senior – 10.40 – Last Year: N.A.
This is a pretty shocking upset, as Waller was practically unknown amongst the media types who regularly drooled over Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks. Waller provided a vast majority of Auburn’s points from behind the arc – 272 attempts worth – and brought down a solid percentage of those shots. Waller is a reliable ball-handler, a somewhat streaky shooter overall and a great shot from the charity stripe.

The others…

2. Jodie Meeks – Kentucky, NBA Draft – 10.57 – Last Year: 15.94
Meeks was the super-star shooter of the SEC last season, and for good reason. Meeks easily led the conference by hitting 40.6% of his 288 attempts from long-range, which also led the league. Meeks carried the Wildcats a season ago, with his speed and pure shooting ability nearly unstoppable for five opponents to guard, much less one.

3. Rotnei Clarke – Arkansas, Sophomore – 11.37 – Last Year: N.A.
One of only two Razorbacks to start every game last season, Clarke likely would have challenged, if not won, SEC Freshman of the Year had he played for a team that didn’t crash and burn worse than the Hindenburg. Clarke – as a freshman, mind you – shot nearly 40% from behind the arc, 93.5% from the charity stripe, and managed a 1.28 assist-to-turnover ratio. This kid will be a superstar if and when Arkansas ever gets some feet beneath its program.

4. Rickey McPhee – Georgia, Senior – 11.71 – Last Year: N.A.
McPhee was little-used last season for the Bulldogs, as he saw just 25 games, but proved to be a solid contributor. Just 14 of his 80 shots were not from three-point distance, as he didn’t necessarily favor being guarded. McPhee isn’t a big-time player, but a solid shooter on a team in desperate need of role-players.

5. Evaldas Banilius – South Carolina, Senior – 11.81 – Last Year: 12.71
Banilius is likely the best shooter in the league, if not one of the best in the nation, that noone has heard about. He didn’t come close to attempting enough shots to be counted, but if he had he’d be the best three-point shooter in the league barring outliers at 48.0% with 100 attempts. Banilius needs to work on his ball-handling and defense, but is a dangerous shooter that thrives with Downey at the point.

6. David Huertas – Ole Miss, Overseas - 12.35 – Last Year: 12.15
Huertas became the prime offensive weapon for the Rebels after the team suffered a loss of three starters as the season began. Huertas led the team with 18.1 points per game, but took an inordinate amount of shots from long-range and wasn’t spectacularly efficient. Huertas was the best option for the Rebels last season, but if the returning players can get healthy, some more efficient scorers need to pick up the slack left by his departure.

7. Erving Walker – Florida, Sophomore – 12.41 – Last Year: N.A.
Walker joins Clarke and a select few other SEC sophomores that could have garnered SEC Freshman of the Year in better circumstances and have the potential to be SEC Player of the Year eventually. Walker is an outstanding shot from three – and everywhere else on the court – is admirably selfless with the ball, and is solid on defense.

8. Ravern Johnson – Mississippi State, Junior – 13.25 – Last Year: 26.71
Johnson, who led the nation in three-point percentage after the halfway-point last season, is one of the most dangerous pure-shooters in the league. His slashing skills began to surface last season, but his height of his body and his jump-shot are nearly impossible for most guards to defend. Johnson is a Meeks-like shooter with SEC Player of the Year potential if he could work on his turnovers.

9. Brad Tinsley – Vanderbilt, Sophomore – 13.91 – Last Year: N.A.
Tinsley falls into the previously mentioned list of super-star freshmen who are set to hit the league big-time. Tinsley put up huge efficiency numbers as a freshman in the wake of Shan Foster’s departure, and is an outstanding shooter. Tinsley can score from anywhere on the floor and defends very well. Tinsley and Ogilvy should make an exciting pair in 2009-10.

10. Marcus Thornton – LSU, Graduated – 14.31 – Last Year: 11.59
Thornton’s production-per-minute dropped severely from a season ago, and it’s surprising to see such a talented shooter so low on the list. Thornton worked on shot selection and his percentages increased while his timed efficiency took a hit. Thornton – the league’s Player of the Year in 2008-09 – was still overwhelmingly potent on the offensive end and clearly the best overall player in the league.

 

The opposite end of the spectrum…
Minimum of 10 total threes made set

 

1. Tasmin Mitchell – LSU, Senior – 113.70 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Quantez Robertson – Auburn, Graduated – 58.82 – Last Year: 36.00

3. George Drake – Vanderbilt, Senior – 52.20 – Last Year: 66.00

4. Zac Swansey – Georgia, Transfer – 51.33 – Last Year: 55.30

5. DeAndre Liggins – Kentucky, Sophomore – 45.50 – Last Year: N.A.

6. Dominique Archie – South Carolina, Senior – 43.43 – Last Year: 42.04

7. Darius Miller – Kentucky, Sophomore – 42.44 – Last Year: N.A.

8. Josh Tabb – Tennessee, Senior – 40.43 – Last Year: 65.25

9. Tyler Smith – Tennessee, Senior – 39.54 – Last Year: 72.64

10. Alonzo Gee – Alabama, Graduated – 38.04 – Last Year: 27.61

2008-09 Hot Hands Award…

Time to pick up the pace around here, people. This award is given to the player who puts up the most shots in the amount of time he is on the floor. The calculation is simple; field goals attempted per minute played. This category isn’t necessarily positive or negative – that would rely heavily on these players’ percentages and turnover rates. What it does show, however, is a surplus of confidence and eagerness to be in the limelight.

Now, for the standard explanation of this whole process – you can skip this if you’ve read it before…

These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.

Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.

Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

 

The winner is…

 

DEVAN DOWNEY – Senior, South Carolina – 1.93 – Last Year: 2.32
Downey and Thornton finished 1 and 2 for the second-straight year, while Downey jumped a spot this year to claim first place. Downey is a dynamic pint-sized (5′9″) point guard who has blazing speed and the moves to drive to the basket while the lumbering bodies of those around him stumble  over themselves trying to stop the layup. Downey will be a favorite for SEC Player of the Year in 2009-10.

The others…

2. Marcus Thornton – Graduated, LSU – 2.06 – Last Year: 2.15
Thornton increased his already extreme output from a year ago, but was just surpassed by Downey. Thornton is quick and dynamic, but more of a pure shooter than Downey as he was one of the most dangerous outside threats in the conference. Thornton was everything for LSU a year ago, and he carried the load again this year despite a bit more help around him on and off the sidelines.

3. Jodie Meeks – NBA Draft, Kentucky – 2.18 – Last Year: 2.90
Meeks was the SEC’s superstar last year, taking his name from outsie any All-SEC lists to the NBA draft. He’s always liked to shoot, but he bursted onto the scene this season in a big way, leading the conference in scoring at 23.7 points per game. Meeks was Kentucky’s only true shooting threat, and thus the offense ran through him and big-man Patrick Patterson.

4. Chris Warren – Junior, Ole Miss – 2.21 – Last Year: 2.42
Warren is a potential superstar who had a phenomenal freshman year before suffering an injury 11 games into the 2008-09 season. If he can return to form, he’ll be one of the league’s scorers and one of the nation’s best ball-handlers. Warren is an excellent all-around player, as his percentages and efficiency numbers are through the roof. Warren will vie for SEC Player of the Year honors by his senior season if he can return to 100%.

5. Travis Leslie – Sophomore, Georgia – 2.33 – Last Year: N.A.
Leslie, while admirably brave for a freshman, was a bit of a ball-hog last season. His numbers can’t be overlooked, as he was pretty efficient at bringing home the points as well, but his 0.59 assist-to-turnover ratio and 57.5% mark from the charity stripe will have to improve for him to truly have a significant impact for the Bulldogs.

6. Trey Thompkins – Sophomore, Georgia – 2.36 – Last Year: N.A.
Thompkins was easily the most underrated freshman in the league last year, as he shot nearly 40% from three – and this is a 6′9″, 247 pound big-man. Thompkins is one of the most versatile players in the conference, and he will once again be relied upon heavily by a talent-starved Georgia team.

7. David Huertas – Overseas, Ole Miss – 2.39 – Last Year: 2.72
While Ole Miss fans will likely brush this loss off, losing Huertas to professional play overseas was a massive blow to the Rebels’ chances at a breakout season in 2009-10. Huertas led the team in scoring and was one of the team’s most prolific rebounders and ball-handlers. Huertas needed tp step up after three starters fell to season-ending injuries, and he did so with flair.

8. Zam Fredrick – Graduated, South Carolina – 2.39 – Last Year: 2.58
Fredrick was an under-the-radar type who was a reliable shooting presence to take some defensive heat off of Downey. Fredrick was Downey’s favorite target outside the arc, and he brought treys down at nearly a 38% clip.

9. Senario Hillman – Junior, Alabama – 2.40 – Last Year: 3.40
Hillman is a pure slasher, and not much else. He attempted over 100 threes a season ago and barely made over 27% of them, while he had a tendency to turn the ball over as well. Hillman was one of the Tide’s few options last year, but more of the offense should have been flowing through Gee and Green.

10. Wayne Chism – Senior, Tennessee – 2.47 – Last Year: 2.79
If a man named Tyler Smith didn’t play for the Vols, Chism would be a superstar. Chism is without a doubt better at his position than Smith, although not as versatile. Chism is one of the league’s best inside-men both offensively and defensively, and his efficiency numbers are outstanding. While he won’t get the publicity, Chism is the scariest player on Tennessee’s roster.

The opposite end of the spectrum…

1. Robert Wilder – Senior, South Carolina – 35.75 – Last Year: 4.67

2. Chris Bass – Sophomore, LSU – 10.62 – Last Year: N.A.

3. Kevin Cantinol – Sophomore, Ole Miss – 8.70 – Last Year: N.A.

4. Demetrius Jemison – Senior, Alabama – 7.42 – Last Year: 4.57

5. Quintin Thornton – Graduated, LSU – 7.37 – Last Year: 16.77

6. Steven Pearl – Junior, Tennessee – 7.30 – Last Year: 4.73

7. Branden Conrad – Graduated, South Carolina – 7.13 – Last Year: 15.33

8. Josh Tabb – Senior, Tennessee – 6.66 – Last Year: 7.91

 9. Marcus Britt – Junior, Arkansas – 6.66 – Last Year: 6.74

10. Darshawn McClellan – Junior, Vandebrilt – 6.62 – Last Year: 6.22

 

Please leave comments!!

2008-09 Bearing The Burden Award…

This award will begin a series of awards based on efficiency numbers (category vs. minutes played) over the next few weeks. These are pure numbers – no bias involved. However, they can be misleading. Thus, here are some heads-ups…

• These awards are meant to effectively and accurately pick the best (and worst) performers in each category. Thus, a line was drawn roughly around the area of 15 games played and/or 40 minutes – 1 full game – played as a minimum. This was done to limit the effect of outliers bringing to our attention surprising walk-ons that could be, according to the stats, future superstars.
• Obviously, these awards are not all-encompassing. Players that transferred or any other players that didn’t play for any reason last season are not included.
• Be sure to understand that each of these categories, alone, are misleading. For example, if a player won Least Minutes/Assist but also finished last in Least Minutes/Turnover, it is not as impressive. Combining these rankings and statistics will give a more clear and well-rounded picture, but these rankings are fun nonetheless.

With further ado, we will begin. Today’s award is the Bearing The Burden Award, given out to the conference’s most efficient field-goal-drainer. This is calculated by Minutes/Field Goals Made. This category clearly relies not only on Field Goals Attempted but also on Field Goal Percentage to prove truly accurate, although this list is not far from right-on.

The winner is…

MARCUS THORNTON – Graduated, LSU  – 4.36 – Last Year: 4.92
Thornton undercut last year’s winner,  A.J. Ogilvy, but .14 and wasn’t the only one to beat last year’s mark. Thornton, serving as LSU’s main offensive threat and facing defenses’ best, still had no problem draining three after three. Thornton was one of the more unheralded players in the game last season, and was absolutely unstoppable and extremely reliable.

The others…

2. Devan Downey – Senior, South Carolina – 4.41 – Last Year: 5.49
Downey joins Thornton in undercutting A.J. Ogilvy’s mark from a year ago, interesting that this year’s top three are all guards while last year’s top three were all forwards. Downey was also his team’s main offensive threat in 2008-09, with his size assisting in his speed and his ability to charge the basket. Downey will likely be one of the favorites for SEC Player of the Year next season.

3. Jodie Meeks – NBA Draft, Kentucky – 4.70 – Last Year: 9.44
One of this year’s most breakout stars, Meeks has won accolades from all across the nation. As a result of having no experienced ball-handlers, Kentucky’s offense was a sinking ship waiting to happen. Most nights, Meeks was the liferaft. Meeks led the conference in scoring and had the ball in his hand every posession.

4. Patrick Patterson – Junior, Kentucky – 4.78 – Last Year: 5.51
Patterson, after receiving SEC Co-Freshman of the Year, has proven himself in every aspet of the game. Kentucky dodged a bullet when Patterson dodged the draft, as he will be a first-round pick when he jumps. With a more well-rounded offense and help down low, Patterson’s production may decrease next year.

5. Alex Tyus – Junior, Florida – 4.84 – Last Year: 6.74
Speaking of dodging a bullet, Florida missed one of two this year. The heart and soul of their team in their star point guard Nick Calathes went pro – in Europe – and Tyus announced he was transferring, leaving many to wonder what was going on in Gainesville. Tyus changed his mind, and his production should increase with the loss of hot-handed Calathes.

6. Michael Washington – Senior, Arkansas – 5.06 – Last Year: 9.00
Washington rivaled Meeks in Most Improved in 2008-09, as he effectively had no choice when nearly his entire team graduated or left the team. The big-man stepped up big-time and relied upon heavily. Unlike others in this list, he had a tendency to be susceptible to double-teams and solid defense, but was an outstanding and otherwise reliable presence for the Razorbacks.

7. Tasmin Mitchell – Senior, LSU – 5.08 – Last Year: 9.43
With Thornton hogging all the lime-light, most forgot about Mitchell. And that was to his advantage, as his size and skill dominated nearly every defender he saw. Mitchell came on strong at the end of the season, enough to seriously consider jumping to the NBA draft. He’s back, and LSU has a chance to not be god-awful next year because of it.

8. Travis Leslie – Sophomore, Georgia – 5.23 – Last Year: N.A.
Leslie is the lone returning freshman on this list and likely the most underrated freshman from 2008-09. Leslie is absolutely awful from the charity stripe and isn’t fond of taking long-range shots, but is a reliable scorer that could turn into a star for the Bulldogs.

9. A.J. Ogilvy – Junior, Vanderbilt – 5.26 – Last Year: 4.46
The only player on this list whose production actually decreased from a year ago, ogilvy suffered from the loss of Foster. Foster was one of the greatest shooters the conference has ever seen, and distracted defenses enough to allow Ogilvy open shots underneath. Ogilvy is still outstanding at most every aspect of the game and should be a first-round draft-when he opts for the NBA.

10. Wayne Chism – Senior, Tennessee – 5.29 - Last Year: 5.94
Chism seems to be constantly battling teammate Tyler Smith for notice. And don’t look now, he may very well be better at the colelgiate level. Chism is an outstanding rebounder, is a force in the paint and likely doesn’t see enough touches considering his ability to get the ball in the basket. He and Smith will challenge Kentucky and Mississippi State for the conference’s most feared front-court.

The opposite end of the spectrum…

1. Marcus Monk – Inellgible, Arkansas – 9.92 – Last Year: N.A.

2. Rickey McPhee – Senior, Georgia – 9.69 – Last Year: N.A.

3. Brandis Raley-Ross – Senior, South Carolina – 9.67 – Last Year: 8.86

4. Chris Barnes – Junior, Georgia – 9.55 – Last Year: 8.86

5. Justin Knox – Junior, Alabama – 9.48 – Last Year: 13.80

6. Terry Martin – Graduated, LSU – 9.46 – Last Year: 7.75

7. Drazen Zlovaric – Sophomore, Georgia – 9.44 – Last Year: N.A.

8. Perry Stevenson – Senior, Kentucky – 9.44 – Last Year: 10.96

9. Zach Graham – Junior, Ole Miss – 9.35 – Last Year: 6.86

10. Sam Muldrow – Junior, South Carolina – 9.33 – Last year: 10.51

 

Please leave comments if you enjoyed this breakdown or have questions, and I will be releasing the next set soon!

Another big SEC loss…

Tyus to transfer

More suprising news in the SEC, this time from the Gators. Sophomore Alex Tyus, who ranked second on the team this past season in scoring (12.5ppg) and first in rebounding (6.2rpg), is transferring out of the program for unknown reasons.

This is, quite obviously, a massive loss for the Gators, coupled with the chance of star point-guard Nick Calathes’ jump to the NBA.

With just this loss alone, Florida likely ruins their chances at being ranked pre-season next year, and will need to quickly find some depth under the basket.

In other rumors, apparently Malcolm White – one of the two starters to transfer out of Ole Miss – is wanting to play for LSU next season. However, word is that Kennedy would not release him to do so.

2008-09 Over/Under Achievers

No doubt that, as a whole, the SEC underachieved heavily in 2008-09. Due mostly to a severe lack of experience, many teams in the conference fell well short of their expectations this season.

Here’s a breakdown of each team’s performance this season, and how it compared to… (A) How the team was expected to perform, and (B) How I personally believe the team should  have performed. Keep in mind that these two factors can be wildly different, as my outlooks are very different than those of the media at times.

I’m also including, as an added bonus, my pre-season predictions posted on the blog in October.

UNDERACHIEVERS

Alabama   (18-14, 7-9, #108)
My prediction:   (18-11, 8-8, ~2 seed NIT)

vs. expectations: Alabama has been heralded ever since Ronald Steele stepped foot on campus, and the media fully expected the Tide to at least make some type of postseason with him returning and the addition of his brother.

vs. my prediction: I was very close with the Tide, although I again overestimated what .500 in the SEC would mean this season.

Arkansas   (14-16, 2-14, #147)
My prediction:   (14-15, 5-11, no postseason)

vs. expectations: After losing a great deal to graduation in 2007-08, the Razorbacks weren’t expected to compete well in the SEC this year. Two wins, however, was even less than most expected.

vs. my prediction: I nailed the Razorbacks’ overall record within a half-game, but I had no idea Pelphrey was capable of just two wins in the SEC – especially with the amount of talent on the roster that he had. Any team with Michael Washington, Courtney Fortson and Rotnei Clark should win more than two games in the SEC – especially considering the state of the SEC this past season.

Florida   (25-11, 9-7, #54)
My prediction:   (25-5, 12-4, ~3 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Considering Donovan took a bunch of sophomores to a national championship just a few years ago, the media seemed to buy into the idea that Florida could compete for the East this season with Tennessee. They fell just one game short of the East, but noone knew what little that would mean.

vs. my prediction: This was possibly my worst pick of the season, as I bought far too much into the old storyline of Donovan’s super sophomores from a few years back. I also underestimated the impact that Florida’s ridiculously soft non-conference schedule would have on the team’s postseason.

Kentucky   (22-14, 8-8, #79)
My prediction:   (22-8, 11-5, ~6 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Kentucky did nothing but struggle under now-deposed head coach Billy Gillispie, and 2008-09 was no different. Expectations are always high for the Blue, and this year was no different considering the enormous amount of talent on the squad – including SEC Player of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson.

vs. my prediction: I foresaw Kentucky struggling according to their own standards, but never would I have dreamt that the Wildcats would be competing in the NIT. Last year was truly a new low for Kentucky basketball fans.

Tennessee   (21-13, 10-6, #25)
My prediction:   (25-5, 13-3, ~3 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Tennessee was pre-season Top 25 and was expected to easily take the SEC title. Despite a solid showing in the conference, the team fell three games short of first-place LSU and received a much lower NCAA bid than would have been thought.

vs. my prediction: With the addition of Top 10 player Scotty Hopson and having two of the better inside players in the league in Smith and Chism, I fully expected Pearl’s team to do exactly what the media thought. The Vols simply weren’t able to play enough defense to win enough games to truly compete for the SEC, and this lack of defense seems to be a theme under Pearl.

Vanderbilt   (19-12, 8-8, #95)
My prediction:   (24-6, 9-7, ~5 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Vandy finished around where they were expected to, possibly slightly lower, at 4th in the East and .500 in SEC play.

vs. my prediction: The ‘Dores fell well short, overall, of how I felt they could have done with all-star A.J. Ogilvy on the roster. While my SEC prediction was close, I underestimated the growing pains of a team losing an offensive powerhouse like Shan Foster.

ON PAR

Georgia   (12-20, 3-13, #192)
My prediction:   (15-13, 5-11, no postseason)

vs. expectations: After a shocking SEC Tournament run, the media began to see improvement in the Bulldogs heading into 2008-09. But expectations remained low, considering the signficant uphill mountain that faced the team.

vs. my prediction: I gave the Bulldogs some leeway, as Top 20 freshman Howard Thompkins was added to the roster. Often times a single player can make several games’ difference, but that was not the case here in Dennis Felton’s final year at Georgia.

Ole Miss   (16-15, 7-9, #82)
My prediction:   (17-13, 7-9, ~4 seed NIT)

vs. expectations: This was a tricky one to rank, as the Rebels pretty much matched their expectations before the season despite losing three starters to injury. In that sense, the Rebels overachieved heavily.

vs. my prediction: Again, I was very close with the result here – nailing the SEC record. I did not, however, account for the massive losses to injury and thus this was an impressive performance by the Rebels.

South Carolina   (21-10, 10-6, #57)
My prediction:   (19-10, 8-8, ~2 seed NIT)

vs. expectations: South Carolina returned nearly every player on their roster in 2008-09 and rightfully was expected to challenge for the East and make an NCAA appearance. While USC tied for the East title, its laughably weak non-conference schedule cost it an NCAA bid.

vs. my prediction: I was pretty much dead-on with USC apart from a two-game difference in the conference, as I knew from the beginning that a non-conference schedule like that would cost the team a chance at the Big Dance.

OVERACHIEVERS

Auburn   (24-12, 10-6, #64)
My prediction:   (14-17, 3-13, no postseason)

vs. expectations: Auburn was one of two big surprises in the West this season, as Lebo actually managed a decent season in leiu of a very weak SEC. Auburn had for several years finished in the bottom of the West, and was once again thought to take that place.

vs. my prediction: The Tigers added Korvotney Barber back to the mix, and I severely underestimated his potential to change Auburn’s offense. With the addition of him and talented JUCO transfer Tay Waller, this offense got hot and took a top seed in the NIT along with 2nd place in the West.

LSU   (27-8, 13-3, #37)
My prediction:   (21-10, 8-8, ~9 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: LSU was easily the SEC’s biggest surprise this year under first-year coach Trent Johnson, as the team’s suffocating defense dominated the SEC from the outset. LSU had very little expectations heading into 2008-09 due to a sub-.500 year in 2007-08.

vs. my prediction: While I knew the Tigers had the potential to improve vastly from the year before, I didn’t prepare for just how large a jump the team would make after bringing back nearly everyone on the roster.

Mississippi State   (23-13, 9-7, #63)
My prediction:   (21-10, 8-8, ~10 seed NCAA)

vs. expectations: Mississippi State lost two of the most high-octane performers at their positions heading into 2008-09 and thus the media’s outlook on the team was not much more than an afterthought. State responded with 23 wins, an SEC Tournament title and an NCAA bid.

vs. my prediction: While I overestimated what 8-8 in the SEC would do for the RPI because of the conference’s sluggish performance as a whole, the Bulldogs still performed very well by finishing 3rd in the West under a stellar freshman point guard.

Official 2008-09 SECHGBD Men’s Basketball Awards

Meeks: SEC Player of the Year

Here are the rather delayed decisions…

SEC Player of the Year:   Jodie Meeks (Junior, Kentucky)

This was a tough decision between three players in particular, but in the end, Meeks’ ability to drain crucial shots from the perimeter and inordinate knack for getting to the charity stripe garnered him the honor of this year’s Player of the Year.

Meeks led the SEC this year in scoring with 23.7 points per game, as just he and Marcus Thornton from LSU were able to average more than 20. Meeks’ 117 three-pointers made easily eclipsed any other player in the SEC while his 40.7% average from long-range also easily led the conference. Added to this impressive resume’ was Meeks’ 263 field goals made this season, 7 more than anyone else in the league. Meeks’ overall 46.3% effort from the floor was 10th best in the SEC, and third amongst the league’s guards.

It’s not all about the pure scoring numbers, and Meeks was not exactly one-dimensional. He also shot 90.2% from the charity stripe to lead the league in that category as well, needless to mention the fact that he attempted 234 shots from there – 12 more than anyone else in the SEC.

The junior, who has announced he will be testing out the NBA draft this offseason, also averaged 1.33 steals per contest (good for 13th in the league) and 34.36 minutes per game (1st).

If Meeks returns to UK for his senior season, Kentucky will have a heck of an offensive weapon.

SEC Freshman of the Year:   Dee Bost (Freshman, Mississippi State)

This contest was clearly between two individuals, as Terrico White of Ole Miss was a better pure scorer than Bost. Bost, however, brings a much more well-rounded and complete game to the floor and is arguably better at on-ball defense. There is no doubt, however, that Bost is a far better leader on his team.

Bost filled the rather enormous shoes of outgoing junior Jamont Gordon very well and took an MSU team picked 4th in the SEC West to a tie for 2nd in the division, an SEC Tournament title, and an NCAA Tournament bid. Bost did so by averaging 4.33 assists per game, 4th in the conference and 2nd among freshmen. While the assist-to-turnover ratio is a category in which nearly every freshman struggles, Bost did not – registering a 1.53 mark, 7th in the league and best among freshmen.

Bost did what every great point guard should do – hand the ball out, take care of the ball, and defend. The latter was demonstrated by his average of 1.44 steals per game which also ranked best among the league’s freshmen and 12th overall in the conference.

Bost was no slouch at scoring either, finishing with a 10.9 points per game average. He also shot 71.8% from the charity stripe, good for 12th in the SEC and again first among freshmen.

While both Bost and White will be outstanding players in their SEC careers, it seems that Bost will prove to be a much more potent all-around player for opposing SEC squads.

SEC Coach of the Year:   Trent Johnson (1st year, LSU)

Unlike many of the other awards this offseason, this one was very clear-cut. Johnson took a very talented but horribly-coached program under John Brady and destroyed the SEC with it the following year.

LSU, just two years removed from a Final Four, was in disarray in 2007-08. The Tigers won just 13 games while losing 18 and went 6-10 in the conference.

Johnson came in and instilled an intense in-your-face defense that finished 2008-09 ranked 17th in the nation, easily claimed the overall SEC season title after going 13-3 in-conference and finished 27-8 overall.

Johnson was an outstanding choice by LSU’s athletic department, and it seems the Tigers will be a force to be reckoned with for many years to come.

SEC Defensive Player of the Year:   Jarvis Varnado (Junior, MSU)

Words can hardly describe the defensive power, presence and ability of Jarvis Varnado. After absolutely shattering the single-season and career blocks records at MSU, he has gone on to surpass Shaquille O’Neal’s single-season SEC block record. He is now on pace to shatter not only the SEC career block record, but the NCAA one as well. In fact, Varnado himself had more blocks in 2008-09 than 9 of the teams in the SEC and over 300 teams in NCAA Division 1 basketball.

Varnado reigns as the two-time reigning National Defensive Player of the Year, and one could hardly keep him from the title of SEC Defensive Player of the Year. If he returns, he could very well be a favorite for the 2009-10 SEC Player of the Year.

SEC First-Team

Jodie Meeks   (Kentucky – Junior – 23.7ppg – 3.4rpg – 46.3% FG – 40.6% 3PT)

Meeks was possibly the most dangerous and hot-handed scorer in the conference this year, and has an excellent driving ability that sends him to the charity stripe more than any other player in the league. Meeks was more valuable to Kentucky this season than any player was to any other team in the SEC.

Marcus Thornton   (LSU – Senior – 21.1ppg – 5.5rpg – 47.2% FG – 38.8% 3PT)

Thornton was in a close battle with Meeks for Player of the Year honors throughout the season, and is a very similar player to him. Thornton has more muscle and is a better rebounder, but not quite as strong of a shooter. Thornton was one of the most dynamic players in the league, and LSU will have a huge hole to fill on his graduation heading toward the 2009-10 season.

Jarvis Varnado   (Miss. State – Junior – 12.9ppg – 8.8rpg – 4.72bpg – 54.9% FG)

Varnado is destroying block records left and right around the league and soon to be the nation, assuming he returns. What most don’t know, however, is his well-rounded game, as Varnado is a potent scorer under the basket and one of the best rebounders in the league. Varnado could challenge for 2009-10 SEC Player of the Year.

Devan Downey   (South Carolina – Junior – 19.8ppg – 2.8rpg – 4.52apg – 2.87apg)

Downey was without much doubt the best defending guard in the SEC for the 2008-09 season, as he finished almost a whole steal more than any other player in the league. Downey’s small size and tremendous speed led to nearly impossible matchups for most guards in the league he matched up against, and Downey knows how to attack the basket. Ranked third in the conference, he also knows how to score. If he returns, South Carolina could be very, very good next year.

Nick Calathes   (Florida – Sophomore – 17.2ppg – 5.3ppg – 6.4apg – 1.94 a/to)

This was a difficult decision between Calathes, Tennessee’s Tyler Smith and Kentucky’s Patrick Patterson for the final First-Team position, but I have a weakness for good ball-handling and smart-playing point guards. Calathes, last year’s SEC Freshman of the Year, has everything that makes an outstanding point guard – and he can score. Averaging 17.2ppg and still handing out 6.4 assists per outing is no small feat.

SEC Second-Team

Tyler Smith   (Tennessee – Junior – 17.4ppg – 5.8rpg – 3.4apg – 76.6% FT)

Tyler Smith is one of the most dynamic big-men in the conference, as he is money from under the basket and is still quite dangerous from behind the arc. He can also drive the basket and, get this, he can dish the ball…3.4 assists per game is outstanding for a forward. Smith is a great scorer with an NBA body – I’d be surprised if he returns in 2009-10.

Patrick Patterson   (Kentucky – Sophomore – 17.9ppg – 9.3rpg – 2.1bpg – 60.3% FG)

Keeping Patterson from the First-Team was a very difficult thing to do considering his page-filling stat sheet, and as a sophomore this young man has an enormous amount of potential. Patterson is an absolute force for the Wildcats, as there is likely not a better interior scorer than him in the entire league. He is also one of the league’s best rebounders and is better defensively than anyone in the league not named Jarvis Varnado.

Korvotney Barber   (Auburn – Senior – 12.8ppg – 9.6ppg – 1.2bpg – 54.5% FG)

Barber is absolutely money from within five feet of the basket, as his impressive field-goal percentage indicates. Don’t move him outside of that range, however – he’s just 47.3% from free throw. That aside, Barber nearly averaged a double-double for the surprising Tigers and was likely the SEC’s best rebounder last year.

Michael Washington   (Arkansas – Junior – 15.5ppg – 9.8rpg – 1.3bpg – 55.1% FG)

Washington is yet another surpemely talented big-man on the SEC Second Team. For a while, Washington looked like the best in the league, and he would clearly win a “Most Improved” award for the SEC. Washington had the misfortune of playing for one of the SEC’s worst teams, but could lead a susprising Razorback team next year.

Alonzo Gee   (Alabama – Senior – 15.0ppg – 7.2rpg – 44.2% FG – 36.5% 3PT)

Alonzo Gee was one of the league’s most dynamic overall players last season, as he was unstoppable while driving to the basket. His athletic body and sheer mass proved a difficult matchup for his defenders, and he was also one of the league’s most talented rebounding guards – although that term could be used lightly for high-flying Gee. The Crimson Tide will sorely miss his presence in 2009-10.

Goof effort from LSU…

Fortunately LSU gave a good, tough fight throughout the game against the Tarheels and led late, but UNC eventually out-talented and out-performed the Tigers late in the game to take an 84-70 victory.

Here’s the stats recap from the game…

• LSU shot 45.3%, UNC shot 53.3%
• UNC was 46.2% from three, LSU was 39.1%
• UNC attempted 18 free throws, LSU attempted 6
• Thornton/Mitchell for LSU and Lawson/Ellington for UNC combined for 89 of the game’s 154 points

Not too much to look at here, although I’d be interested to see how this game would have played out if the foul calling wasn’t so warped in favor of the Tarheels. Both teams have distinguished and clear-cut stars, and UNC’s backups were simply more talented and more focused down the stretch.

LSU overachieved to an outstanding degree this season, and I think the rest of the SEC better look out for Trent Johnson, because he’s proven his worth in this conference. LSU was set up for a successful season, but so was USC and the Gamecocks failed to even make the NCAA Tournament. LSU loses a ton next season, but Johnson is set to compete long-term in this ever-competitive conference.

LSU battling #1-seed UNC…

The Tigers are trailing 38-29 against the Tarheels, after UNC closed the half on a decent little run. The Tigers are clearly not overmatched, but will need a stellar second half to take the SEC to the Sweet Sixteen.

No other SEC games today.

LSU wins first-round game…

LSU survives a late-game push from Butler and wins 75-71. The Tigers will play the winner of North Carolina and Radford – which is to say, North Carolina. I personally think the Tigers have a great shot at taking down the Tarheels, especially without star point-guard Ty Lawson.

NCAA Tournament – Round One

LSU has begun play against Butler in the NCAA Tournament’s first round to kick off the SEC schedule in the Big Dance. Despite only three teams making the cut, all three seem to be in a good position to pull off first-round wins.

LSU leads Butler at halftime, 35-29. The Tigers are surprisingly trailing on the boards, but are very hot from the field: 13-of-26 for 50.0%. Surprise! Marcus Thornton is leading the team, with 13 points but Tasmin Mitchell has continued his elevated play with 5-of-7 shooting from the field for 10 points. Mitchell seems to be the “X” factor for this team energy-wise and performance-wise. The Tigers desperately need someone other than Thornton to step up offensively, and it looks like they’ve found their guy. LSU is easily outplaying Butler in this game.

13-seed (I know, it’s terrible) Mississippi State faces 4-seed Washington later on this afternoon in a game that has become a popular upset-pick, as most everyone BUT the selection committee can apparently see how grossly under-seeded the Bulldogs are at a 13-seed. In comparison, last year’s 4-league-win, sub-.500 Georgia squad that won the league tournament also received a 13-seed.

In the NIT, the SEC received two of the four #1 seeds in Auburn and Florida. The Gators didn’t disappoint with an 84-62 raping of Jacksonville but Auburn struggled with Tennessee-Martin 87-82, although UT-Martin are a deceptively solid squad. Florida moves on to face Miami in what will be a tremendous challenge, as I was very impressed with their game against Providence. Auburn will play Tulsa, which very well could be an easier game than 6-seed UT-Martin.

3-seed South Carolina’s season is over after losing to 6-seed Davidson, who sports possibly the nation’s best shooter in Stephan Curry. I must say I am a bit disappointed with the coaching job of Darrin Horn – this was an extremely experienced USC squad who was more than adequately talented and yet the team still managed only a first-round appearance in the NIT. Organizing what was probably the SEC’s lightest non-conference schedule didn’t help.

4-seed Kentucky was up by 20 on UNLV at one point in the second half before the Runnin’ Rebels came storming back. The Wildcats have seemed unfocused ever since Billy Gillespie stepped foot on that campus, but the ‘Cats will move on to the NIT’s second round after a 70-60 win over UNLV. Another poor coaching job, as Kentucky is supremely talented this year. No excuse for missing the NCAA Tournament.

A bit surprising was Vanderbilt’s exclusion from the NIT – although it’s a bit understandable as the team’s quality wins are questionable.

More to come throughout the day.

SEC Tournament, Day Three: Live-Blogging

12:39 p.m. CT:   MSU/LSU underway – a good game…the Tigers leading by two. State playing above their heads, LSU playing typical LSU. It might take the Tigers slipping up or falling asleep for State to win, fouls racking up on LSU big-men. Chris Johnson and Quintin Thornton each with two.

12:46 p.m. CT:   State out to a three-point lead…refs getting petty on off-the-ball defense on both ends.

12:51 p.m. CT:   Petty calls from the refs…two fouls on three LSU players. MSU playing with a lot of heart.

12:52 p.m. CT:   MSU leads at the half 31-29. Here’s some halftime numbers…

FG%:   MSU (37%)   LSU (36%)
3PT%:   MSU (29%)   LSU (25%)
FT%:   MSU (69%)   LSU (75%)
Rebounds:   MSU (21)   LSU (21)
Fouls:   MSU (6)   LSU (10)
Steals:   MSU (0)   LSU (1)
Blocks:   MSU (3)   LSU (2)
Assists:   MSU (7)   LSU (6)
Turnovers:   MSU (3)   LSU (3)
Bench Pts:   MSU (5)   LSU (4)
Second-Chance Pts:   MSU (9)   LSU (2)

Little sticks out other than that these two teams are very evenly matched. State was owned on the boards in the previous two outings against the Tigers this season, and the teams are tied at the half. Should be an entertaining second half.

1:12 p.m. CT:   Chris Johnson with his third foul early in the second half, he’s benched. State’s threes aren’t falling, but they’re attacking the rim very well.

1:15 p.m. CT:   These hustle plays are all going MSU’s way – lots of effort from State.

1:19 p.m. CT:   What a NASTY dunk from Varnado. One of the biggest dunks I’ve ever seen. LSU just doesn’t seem able to keep up with State’s dynamic offense…both Ravern Johnson and Phil Turner have hit 25ish-foot threes. Marcus Thornton with his third foul, and that is becoming an issue for the Tigers as well.

1:26 p.m. CT:   Quintin Thornton to the bench with four fouls. Two others with three for LSU.

1:28 p.m. CT:   47-39 advantage MSU…State simply outplaying LSU at this point. LSU calls a timeout to regroup.

1:35 p.m. CT:   Four LSU players with 3 or more fouls with about 9 minutes left. Chris Johnson has four now, with 8:24 remaining.

1:38 p.m. CT:   MSU only 12-of-20 from free throw, not taking advantage of the many fouls from LSU. Varnado 3-of-10. LSU trying to come back, down only four with the ball.

1:44 p.m. CT:   This game could come down to free throws. LSU is hitting theirs, State is not. Three Tigers with four fouls now, as Marcus Thornton picks up his fourth.

1:49 p.m. CT:   Airball from Chris Johnson. Jumpers aren’t his thing. Temple with his fourth, four guys with four…4:02 remaining. LSU is running out of backups to put on the floor.

1:54 p.m. CT:   Jarvis Varnado, with today’s seven blocks, is officially the SEC’s single-season block record-holder. Surpassed LSU’s former all-star Shaquille O’Neal. MSU up 59-47 with 2:48…State’s looking good to advance to the tournament finals.

1:56 p.m. CT:   Marcus Thornton is done with five fouls at 2:36, and a technical from Graham. Absolutely needless, MSU looks to be putting this game away.

2:00 p.m. CT:   Varnado with 19 points, 7 rebounds, 7 blocks…impressive outing. Interesting that MSU has only made three 3-pointers and yet are up 15 on the SEC’s best team. De-bunks the myth of MSU as strictly a three-point shooting team.

2:04 p.m. CT:   MSU shockingly advances 67-57 over the league’s regular-season champions, LSU. State – the only lower seed to advance out of the second round – will meet today’s Auburn/Tennessee winner tomorrow at noon to decide who receives the league’s automatic bid.

This leaves a major question up in the air – with 22 wins and an SEC Tournament Championship Game appearance, do the Bulldogs receive an at-large bid if they were to lose tomorrow? My guess is yes.

SEC Tournament: Day Two Live-Blogging

12:03 p.m. CT:   LSU and Kentucky are about to start – my predictions are LSU by fivish, MSU by threeish, Tennessee by 7ish, and Florida by threeish. Strange how evenly matched LSU/Kentucky and USC/MSU seem to be personnel-wise.

12:24 p.m. CT:   LSU tried to pull away, Kentucky’s defense tightens and pulls within three. LSU’s offense looks messy – this team just has a LOT of talent. 7-0 run from Kentucky, holding LSU pointless for more than 3 minutes…how many times will the LSU guards drive the lane and lose control of the ball??

12:31 p.m. CT:   LSU’s offense is offensive. If the threes aren’t falling, how is this team going to score??

12:40 p.m. CT:   These guards from each team are insisting on driving the lane with shot-blockers lurking…

12:54 p.m. CT:   LSU leads at the half, 28-23…both offenses are struggling with the opponent’s defense. LSU just has more dynamic talent and better  shooting.

Okay, going to grab some food before the MSU/USC game…will be back in 15-30 minutes.

2:21 p.m. CT:   I return just as the LSU/Kentucky game has ended, and it did so about how I expected. The Tigers’ defense was able to contain Kentucky’s offense (Meeks) as he scored just eight points. LSU now will face the winner of the upcoming MSU/USC game.

Kentucky’s NCAA chances are questionable at this point. The Wildcats should be hoping for USC, Tennessee and Auburn to win today.

Interesting to note that the higher seed has won every game thus far in the SEC Tournament…we’ll see if it continues.

2:38 p.m. CT:   MSU seems to be intent on getting the ball to Varnado for a jumper and he’s missing them, USC shooting well, out to a 6-0 run. MSU turning the ball over profusely, Varnado with several blocks already.

2:44 p.m. CT:   MSU looks very bad, turning the ball over and making poor decisions. USC capitalizing, up 10-2.

2:48 p.m. CT:   Referees are not doing MSU any favors – USC playing very physically. 6 turnovers early for MSU.

3:05 p.m. CT:   MSU trimmed it within four, USC then pulled away by 10 again. This isn’t a pretty game.

3:12 p.m. CT:   I’ve never seen a man as big as Kodi Augustus hit threes like he does. USC is hitting EVERYthing, contested shots and all.

3:17 p.m. CT:   Four blocks for Varnado in the half – refs missing several calls on both ends. Fredrick and Archie both with more then ten points. At the half, USC leads 36-32.

3:40 p.m. CT:   MSU within one, 16:20. The threes are falling for State, but USC seems as if they can’t miss.

3:42 p.m. CT:   MSU takes its first lead of the game with a Turner dunk. USC has gotten cold and State seems to be handling the ball better.

3:53 p.m. CT:   Refs have called a NUMBER of questionable offensive foul calls on MSU…game tied at 48 with 11:02.

3:56 p.m. CT:   Seems like every break falls USC’s way – this is a very entertaining game.

4:06 p.m. CT:   MSU pulls out to a 7-point lead, its biggest on 53% shooting from behind the arc.

4:15 p.m. CT:   The two teams have switched positions, as it seems as if MSU is the one that can’t miss now. Great passing from State, good defense as the Gamecocks have struggled to score in this half.

4:23 p.m. CT:   South Carolina rebounding well in the final couple of minutes, pulled it within 73-68 with 51.2 seconds remaining. This game is going to come down to MSU’s free throws and South Carolina’s rebounding.

4:26 p.m. CT:   MSU responded with four straight free-throws, pulls ahead 77-68 with 42.3 seconds – State might be the first lower seed to advance.

4:29 p.m. CT:   What a dirty move from Downey…an intentional foul within 30 seconds while State leads by 11. Completely unneccesary. Followed by a punk move from Conrad…I’m quickly beginning to disrespect this team.

4:32 p.m. CT:   MSU takes the win, 82-68. The Bulldogs are on fire and now suddenly have 21 wins and are in the thick of the NCAA Tournament discussion. South Carolina will be sweating it out on Sunday, and we’ll see an LSU/MSU re-re-match tomorrow. If the double-overtime game in Starkville is any cue, it should be a very entertaining game.

Headed out, will return later in the evening.

7:22 p.m. CT:   Back after a short delay…Alabama struggling to close a 10-point gap against Tennessee. The Vols look to be completely outclassing the Tide at the moment.

7:26 p.m. CT:   Tennessee leads by 11 at the half. ‘Bama will need  a big comeback energy-wise in the second half if they want to compete in this game.

7:45 p.m. CT:   50-32 for Tennessee with 17:04 left…Alabama simply can’t match Tennessee’s talent, shooting or speed. The Tide just look absolutely lazy at this point. They’ve given up.

7:55 p.m. CT:   Almost six minutes into this half and Alabama has yet to score. Tennessee is looking down-right scary at this point…58-32 with 13:56 remaining. Ouch.

8:07 p.m. CT:   Okay this is boring…worst game of the tournament thus far. Tennessee up 65-46 with 8:43 remaining. Tennessee will be playing the winner of tonight’s Florida/Auburn game.

8:09 p.m. CT:   Jamychal Green fouls out with over eight minutes remaining – the big-man will need to learn how not to foul as he matures as a player. Although this is likely his last game as a freshman, he could be the second-best big-man in the conference next season.

Apparently the television lied to me…he has four and hit the bench.

8:14 p.m. CT:   Tabb marches through the lane and dunks on ‘Bama. I can’t count how many times that the Tide have allowed the Vols to drive to the basket unopposed – the team’s interior defense is non-existent.

8:16 p.m. CT:   HUGE alley-oop from Tatum to Smith…75-52, 5:10. Yikes…I imagine Donovan and Lebo both are worried after watching this game.

8:30 p.m. CT:   Tennessee advances 86-62 over Alabama…will play the upcoming Auburn/Florida winner. I’ll take Tennessee against either.

9:49 p.m. CT:   Close game at halftime, as Florida leads by one. Very even game stats-wise…either of these teams will be dominated by Tennessee, I believe.

9:54 p.m. CT:   The difference in a good team and a great team…great teams don’t make stupid mistakes. Stupid mistakes lose games, and both of these teams are making stupid mistakes, although the Tigers are making more of them – thanks to the embarassing coaching of Jeff Lebo. Neither of these teams are NCAA-worthy teams frankly, although Florida is moreso simply due to their level of coaching and chance of advancing.

10:03 p.m. CT:   Auburn has no outside presence in this game…all of their threes have looked awful.

10:41 p.m. CT:   Florida just handed Auburn the game…Florida fails to foul within 30 seconds, Auburn gets a wide-open dunk. HUGE mistake for the Gators – Florida just handed away their NCAA Tournament chances.

Regular season done…postseason begins

Now that regular-season play has concluded, a TON (way more than usual) of SEC teams are fighting for their postseason lives heading toward the conference tournament. I’m going to break down each team, including their pros and cons, strength of schedule, RPI, etc to conclude their chances for each tournament, and what will be needed.

First, here’s a list of the SEC teams, their records, and their seeds for the SEC Tournament based on tiebreakers.

EAST

1. Tennessee (19-11, 10-6)
2. South Carolina (21-8, 10-6)
3. Florida (22-9, 9-7)
4. Kentucky (19-12, 8-8)
5. Vanderbilt (19-11, 8-8)
6. Georgia (12-19, 3-13)

WEST

1. #12 LSU (25-6, 13-3)
2. Auburn (21-10, 10-6)
3. Miss. State (19-12, 9-7)
4. Alabama (17-13, 7-9)
5. Ole Miss (16-14, 7-9)
6. Arkansas (14-15, 2-14)

Now I’ll break down each team’s performance thus far and their outlook for the postseason. A word about the RPI – it tends to lag a day or two, but this at least is a general idea. The quality of wins are determined by RPI, not record. Chances of etc..  means at LEAST the NIT or NCAA.

Alabama

Record:   17-13
SEC Record:   7-9
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #126
Best Overall Win:   @ [23] Tennessee (70-67)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [102] St. Joesph’s (58-48)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [181] Mercer (69-72)
Worst League Loss:   @ [85] Vanderbilt (74-79)

The Crimson Tide finished the regular season with a massive win on the road at Tennessee, but it’s looking like at least two victories in the conference tournament will be necessary to be considered for the NIT. While ‘Bama faces Vanderbilt in the first round, who provided the team with its worst loss of the conference season, the second-round matchup with Tennessee seems to be favorable considered the previous win on the road. The opening round will be difficult, however.

Chances of NIT:   20%
Chances of NCAA:   3%

Arkansas

Record:   14-15
SEC Record:   2-14
Last Ten:   1-9
RPI:   #139
Best Overall Win:   vs. [4] Oklahoma (96-88)
Best League Win:   vs. [126] Alabama (89-80)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [212] Missouri State (57-62)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (67-88)

The Razorbacks are one of the biggest head-scratchers in the conference. After jumping out to a 12-1 start with wins over #4 Oklahaoma and #7 Texas, the fell back to the level that most expected of them approaching the season, as nearly the entire team is underclassmen. The postseason is effectually impossible for the ‘Backs at this point without winning the conference tournament.

Chance of NIT:   <1%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

Auburn

Record:   21-10
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:    8-2
RPI:   #64
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (78-77)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [106] Virginia (58-56)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [181] Mercer (74-78)
Worst League Loss:   vs. [85] Vanderbilt (75-82)

The Tigers are on a serious tear, winning 8 of their last 9 games including a huge 16-point home win over #12 LSU. This certainly thrusts them from off-the-radar into the massive discussion of which SEC teams make the cut. Certainly Auburn looks like a more viable candidate than does either of the floundering East teams in Kentucky or Florida at this point. Auburn could certainly make a stronger argument for their inclusion with a Round Two win over either Florida or Arkansas. Auburn swept Arkansas but fell at home to the Gators earlier in the season 65-68.

Chances of NIT:   >99%
Chances of NCAA: 47%

Florida

Record:   22-9
SEC Record:   9-7
Last Ten:   4-6
RPI:   #48
Best Overall Win:   vs. [13] Washington (86-84)
Best League Win:   vs. [50] South Carolina (97-93)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [188] Georgia (86-88)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [17] Syracuse (83-89)

The Gators seem to be on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament based solely on having lost 3 of their last 4 contests. The team’s RPI is still very respectable and the record is solid, thus the team should be in a good position approaching the post-season.

Chances of NIT:   >99%
Chances of NCAA:   65%

Georgia

Record:   12-19
SEC Record:   3-13
Last Ten:   3-7
RPI:   #188
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (88-86)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [62] Virginia Tech (67-66)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [216] Loyola Chicago (53-74)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (70-75)

The Bulldogs are completely out of the postseason picture without winning the SEC Tournament as the 6-seed for the second year in a row. Although the ‘Dawgs have taken down two of the East’s better teams and have proven their ability to compete with talented competition, Georgia doesn’t seem to have much of a chance at the postseason.

Chance of NIT:   <1%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

Kentucky

Record:   19-12
SEC Record:   8-8
Last Ten:   3-7
RPI:   #80
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (77-58)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [26] West Virginia (54-43)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [188] Georgia (85-90)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   vs. [126] VMI (103-111)

The Wildcats seem to have played their way onto the wrong side of the bubble, having lost their last four consecutive games including one at home to the SEC’s worst team in Georgia. At least two wins would be required for the team to have a decent argument at this point, and road is tough as it runs through Ole Miss and then league-leading LSU.

Chance of NIT:   95%
Chance of NCAA:   40%

LSU

Record:   25-6
SEC Record:   13-3
Last Ten:   8-2
RPI:   #37
Best Overall Win:   @ [23] Tennessee (79-73)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [89] Washington State (64-52)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (59-65)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [28] Texas A&M (61-72)

The Tigers have long-since locked up a bid to the Big Dance, but have taken a pretty massive hit to their seeding after losing two-straight to Vanderbilt (at home) and at Auburn. If LSU can make the league tournament finals, they could receive as high as a 4 or 5 seed.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   >99%

Mississippi State

Record:   19-12
SEC Record:   9-7
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #83
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (80-71)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [54] Western Kentcky (95-67)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [207] Charlotte (64-70)
Worst League Loss:   @ [111] Alabama (85-87)

The Bulldogs have been possibly the streakiest team in the league, as they won 6 of their first 8 league games and then dropped 5 of 6, followed by two consecutive improbable wins to close out the regular season. It seems that the NCAA picture is a long-shot for State, but a couple of winnable games wait to open the SEC Tournament. If the squad can take wins from Georgia and then South Carolina, who fell to MSU 75-70 in Starkville earlier in the season, State would have 21 wins, a top 80 RPI and some semblence of an argument for the NCAA.

Chance of NIT: >99%
Chance of NCAA: 35%

Ole Miss

Record:   16-14
SEC Record:   7-9
Last Ten:   5-5
RPI:   #81
Best Overall Win:   vs. [23] Tennessee (81-65)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [137] Morgan State (78-70)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [162] Southern Miss (59-78)
Worst League Loss:   vs. [111] Alabama (69-90)

The Rebels seem to be out of the NCAA Tournament without a league tournament title, but the NIT is still very much within grasp. Having lost 3 of their last 4 does not help, but wins against Kentucky and LSU and possibly one more to make the final game could be enough to enter the NIT discussion.

Chance of NIT:   7%
Chance of NCAA:   <1%

South Carolina

Record:   21-8
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:   6-4
RPI:   #50
Best Overall Win:   vs. [48] Florida (70-69)
Best Non-Conference Win:   @ [75] Baylor (85-84)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [101] Charleston (80-82)
Worst League Loss:   @ [85] Vanderbilt (83-96)

The Gamecocks appear to be the only SEC team outside of LSU absolutely guaranteed an NCAA spot, although Tennessee is looking good as well. South Carolina has very few quality wins but very few quality losses as well and could edge up ot a 7 or 8 seed with a good showing in the league tournament.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   80%

Tennessee

Record:   19-11
SEC Record:   10-6
Last Ten:   6-4
RPI:   #23
Best Overall Win:   @ [24] Siena (78-64)
Best League Win:   @ [48] Florida (79-75)
Worst Overall Loss:   vs. [111] Alabama (67-70)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   @ [40] Temple (72-88)

The Volunteers seem to be set for an NCAA bid, although the low amount of wins makes things a bit more scary than they would likely to wish for. An impressive RPI and several big wins should keep the Orange safe on Selection Sunday. A run in the league tournament could even boost the Vols into a respectable 7 or 8 seed.

Chance of NIT:   >99%
Chance of NCAA:   91%

Vanderbilt

Record:   19-11
SEC Record:   8-8
Last Ten:   7-3
RPI:   #85
Best Overall Win:   @ [37] LSU (75-67)
Best Non-Conference Win:   vs. [56] VCU (71-66)
Worst Overall Loss:   @ [188] Georgia (57-61)
Worst Non-Conference Loss:   vs. [168] Illinois-Chicago (55-74)

The Commodores seem to be the 200th SEC team right on the bubble near .500 in the conference, with around 19 wins overall and an RPI in the 80’s. While the RPI is weak for Vandy, the team’s performance lately has been impressive – three in a row, two of them over two of the top three teams in the conference. If the ‘Dores could win a couple in the league tournament – which would require wins over Alabama (who they defeated once already) and Tennessee (who they were swept by) – the team might have a shot at the NCAA Tournament.

Chance of NIT:   90%
Chance of NCAA:   20%

 

 

In closing, I’ll make an interesting observation. Through doing this, it’s become apparent that the NCAA bubble contains an inordinate amount of SEC teams. With that said, it’s almost a given that at least one or two of those teams will make an “improbable” run by winning two or three and make the cut.

The teams that need to prove themselves are, in order of most likely to make it to least…

-Tennessee – likely
-South Carolina – likely
——————————-
-Florida – probable
-Kentucky – unsure
-Auburn – unsure
-Miss. State – unsure
-Vanderbilt – unlikely

 

I will be live-blogging periodically throughout the day beginning Thursday and through Sunday, obviously in discussion about the SEC Tournament. Please feel free to join and comment as I blog – I will be sure to recognize and respond to each comment, and answer each question. Tell your friends!!

18 hours…and postseason outlooks

To all of my faithful readers, I know we’ve hit hard times. I quickly learned that 18 hours of classes plus a serious ongoing blog endeavor wasn’t particularly possible. However, here’s an update on the SEC teams and their chances at the postseason.

The Chance of NCAA is including the team’s perceived ability to win the SEC Tournament. Chance of NIT is in reference to that team’s chance of at LEAST making the NIT.

Alabama (16-13, 6-9) (RPI: #122)

Remaining games:
@ Tennessee (Sun, 3/8)

The Crimson Tide would need a win against Tennessee and at least one or two in the SEC Tournament to sniff the NIT.

Chance of NCAA: 2%
Chance of NIT: 15%

Arkansas (14-13, 2-12) (RPI: #124)

Remaining games:
vs. Ole Miss (Wed, 3/4)
@ Vanderbilt (Sun, 3/8)

The Razorbacks would need to win their final two games and at least two, maybe three in the SEC Tournament to even make an argument for the NIT.

Chance of NCAA: <1%
Chance of NIT: 2%

Auburn (20-10, 9-6) (RPI: #72)

Remaining games:
vs. #12 LSU (Sat, 3/7)

The Tigers have won 7 of their last 8 and are the hottest team in the conference at the moment not named LSU. Auburn has a very good argument for the NCAA, but that spot will be a battle with Tennessee, Florida and Kentucky. If the Tigers can pick up a win against big-time LSU or take one or two in the SEC Tournament, the squad should see the NCAA for the first time in a while.

Chance of NCAA: 40%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Florida (21-8, 8-6) (RPI: #50)

Remaining games:
@ Mississippi State (Wed, 3/4)
vs. Kentucky (Sat, 3/7)

The Gators are squarely on the massive SEC NCAA bubble, and their final two games could define their postseason tournament. Florida has lost 4 of their last 6, and the team can not afford a loss to MSU and the Kentucky game could be for the SEC’s final NCAA spot.

Chance of NCAA: 60%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Georgia (11-18, 2-12) (RPI: #205)

Remaining games:
@ Kentucky (Wed, 3/4)
vs. South Carolina (Sat, 3/7)

The Bulldogs will need another miracle to reach the postseason for the second-straight year.

Chance of NCAA: <1%
Chance of NIT: <1%

Kentucky (19-10, 8-6) (RPI: #67)

Remaining games:
vs. Georgia (Wed, 3/4)
@ Florida (Sat, 3/7)

The Wildcats are in a situation very similar to that of Florida’s, except that Kentucky has a worse RPI. With losses in 3 of their last 4 contests, Kentucky can’t afford to slip up against Georgia and still might need a win in Gainesville to secure an NCAA bid. A decent performance in the SEC Tournament wouldn’t hurt either.

Chance of NCAA: 55%
Chance of NIT: >99%

LSU (25-4, 13-1) (RPI: #24)

Remaining games:
vs. Vanderbilt (Wed, 3/4)
@ Auburn (Sat, 3/7)

LSU has nothing but NCAA seeding to worry about at this point. If the Tigers can pull off a sweep and win out, including the SEC Tournament, the team could be looking at a 1 or 2 seed.

Chance of NCAA: >99%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Mississippi State (17-12, 7-7) (RPI: #96)

Remaining games:
vs. Florida (Wed, 3/4)
@ Ole Miss (Sat, 3/7)

Mississippi State is possibly the coldest team in the SEC outside of Georgia, having lost 5 of their last 6. Once seeming NIT lock, MSU now seems to find themselves on the NIT bubble. MSU would need at least 3 or 4 more wins to eve be considered for a long-shot chance at the NCAA, and one or two more to be a safe NIT pick.

Chance of NCAA: 5%
Chance of NIT: 60%

Ole Miss  (15-13, 6-8) (RPI: #78)

Remaining games:
@ Arkansas (Wed, 3/4)
vs. Mississippi State (Sat, 3/7)

Ole Miss would nearly need to win the SEC Tournament, or least make the finals to even think of the NCAA’s. The NIT also seems like a longshot, although winning out in the regular season and a win or two in the SEC Tournament could put the Rebels in the discussion.

Chance of NCAA: 1%
Chance of NIT: 20%

South Carolina (20-7, 9-5) (RPI: #42)

Remaining games:
vs. Tennessee (Thur, 3/5)
@ Georgia (Sat, 3/7)

The Gamecocks appear to be the only SEC team outside of LSU to be a lock for the NCAA. If the squad won out, the team could pull out a 4 or 5 seed.

Chance of NCAA: 98%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Tennessee (18-10, 9-5) (RPI: #21)

Remaining games:
@ South Carolina (Thur, 3/5)
vs. Alabama (Sun, 3/8)

Tennessee seems to be safely the SEC’s third NCAA spot, although the team wouldn’t be well-advised to lose out. The Vols have an impressive RPI, however, so they should be shooed into the Big Dance.

Chance of NCAA: 75%
Chance of NIT: >99%

Vanderbilt (17-11, 6-8) (RPI: #104)

Remaining games:
@ #12 LSU
vs. Arkansas

The Commodores are a dark horse contender for both postseason tournaments, but a poor RPI will hold them back. If the ‘Dores can pull out a win in Baton Rouge and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament, they could have a solid argument for the NCAA. To make the NIT, two more wins could put them in contention.

Chance of NCAA: 20%
Chance of NIT: 45%

2008-09 SEC Schedule breakdowns: LSU

Wins in bold, losses in italics, and toss-ups are marked with asterisks.

vs. Jackson State
vs. Alcorn State – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Northwestern State – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Centenary – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Troy – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Cal State Fullerton
vs. Grambling
vs. Nicholls State
@ Texas A&M
vs. McNeese State
vs. Washington State***
vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
@ Utah***
vs. Xavier
———-
@ Alabama
vs. South Carolina
@ Ole Miss
vs. Mississippi State
vs. Xavier***
@ Tennessee
vs. Arkansas
@ Georgia
vs. Alabama
@ Mississippi State
vs. Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
vs. Auburn
vs. Florida
@ Kentucky
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Auburn

The Tigers should take a huge step forward this season, with an extreme amount of experience and talent (although, the depth is lacking) in a weak Western division. I’ve got the Tigers going (21-10) and (8-8), good enough to squeak into the NCAA Tournament as a 9 or 10 seed with a solid RPI.

SEC Schedules: LSU

vs. Jackson State
vs. Alcorn State – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Northwestern State – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Centenary – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Troy – LSU Invitational (Baton Rouge, LA)
vs. Cal State Fullerton
vs. Grambling
vs. Nicholls State
@ Texas A&M
vs. McNeese State
vs. Washington State
vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
@ Utah
vs. Xavier
———-
vs. South Carolina
@ Tennessee
@ Georgia
vs. Florida
@ Kentucky
vs. Vanderbilt

The Tigers haven’t exactly put together a competitive non-conference schedule, highlighted by a joke of a mid-season tournament. Trips to Utah and Texas A&M are decent games, while Xavier at home should easily be the most challenging non-conference game. Considering the improvement LSU should make this season, the Tigers could escape with only 1 loss outside of the conference.

LSU’s matchups against the East are about as favorable as physically possible considering the divisions’ lack of parity, with home games against Florida and Vanderbilt.

Aggressive underneath…

Now we’ve made it to minutes per free throws attempted. This again should be dominated by forwards and aggressive guards. However, the main difference here is that free throw percentages aren’t as relevant, but instead the turnover rate is key. This category measures how aggressive these players are in the paint and if this aggression is working in their favor by free throw attempts heavily outweighing their number of turnovers.

MINUTES PER FREE THROWS ATTEMPTED

While the aim is for this number to be low, it’s best combined with a solid free throw percentage and low turnover rate.

1. A.J. Ogilvy, Vanderbilt (3.9) – As if this phenomenal freshman hadn’t done enough, he leads yet another statistical category, this time in how often he gets to the stripe. His aggression and assertiveness under the basket is unmatched offensively, and he improves upon that with a very solid 76.9% touch – although his 10.5 m/to rate could be improved upon.

2. Elgin Bailey, Mississippi State (5.2) – Bailey seems to have a lot of potential under the basket, with solid shooting percentages and rebounding figures as a freshman. His aggression in the paint, however, goes unrewarded as he hit an absolutely abysmal 39.0% from the stripe with 41 attempts (he hits a much better 47.4% from the field). If Bailey wants to step into the shoes of graduating forward Charles Rhodes, he absolutely must improve from the charity stripe.

3. Cameron Tatum, Tennessee (5.3) – Very similar to Bailey but with much less playing time is Tatum, who shot well from the field but managed just a 42.9% effort from the free throw line in 14 attempts. Similarly, he must improve that stroke before he looks to contribute for the Vols. A 9.3 m/to rate also should improve.

4. Korvotney Barber, Auburn (5.6) – Shockingly, Barber is the 3rd out of the top 4 in this category to shoot less than 45% from the free throw line (43.8%), although Barber’s misses made a much larger impact on his team, as he started 29 of 32 games for the Tigers. Auburn simply doesn’t have a choice, with limited options inside., although his 11.5 m/to ratio is at least decent.

5. J.P. Prince, Tennessee (5.8) – Although his shooting touch is still terrible at 55.7%, Prince’s m/to rate is an acceptable 11.3 and his touch from the field is a solid 49.7% – especially for a guard. Prince should continue to improve his free throw shooting and outside mark (15.4%) if the Vols are to seriously filter him into the starting lineup.

6. Nick Calathes, Florida (5.9) – Calathes is simply beneficial to his team regardless of what he is doing. Included is his knack for attacking the lane and drawing fouls, shooting 72.4% from the charity stripe as a freshman. This dynamic guard should join A.J. Ogilvy as preseason SEC Player of the Year favorites.

7. Zach Graham, Ole Miss (6.3) – The third-straight guard in the category, Graham would have been an absolute star if he had started every game last season, with incredible numbers from long range (43.3%) and his aggressive floor-play. A 13.9 m/to ratio is also impressive for a freshman guard.

8. Tyler Smith, Tennessee (6.4) – Smith, possibly the most dynamic player in the conference, got to the line 160 times and hit 70.6% of those shots. His 11.3 m/to ratio is especially impressive considering the amount of time in which he handled the ball.

8. Alonzo Gee, Alabama (6.4) – Gee’s touch from the charity stripe is far from impressive for a guard (67.9%), but his 15.8 m/to ratio is excellent considering his role as perhaps the most aggressive player in the conference.

10. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU (6.6) – Mitchell only saw three games, but excelled in those games from the free throw stripe, hitting 8 of 10 of his attempts. However, his ball-handling was nothing short of poor, as he turned the ball over every 7.3 minutes. In perspective, he would have given the ball up an average of five times if he had played 40 full minutes.

Not too much surprising on this front, as few would argue that these 10 players are the most aggressive in the conference. Some to their remorse, and others to their own benefit. To coaches, it’s absolutely vital for a player with lots of talent and potential to get to the basket, while those who only think they have that talent should know when to back off.

Next, we move on to the ever-important rebounding category with minutes per rebound.

Free throw gurus…

Up next is minutes per free throws made. While obviously inside men have the advantage here, the forwards and centers tend not to shoot as well from the free throw stripe as the guards do, and so there’s always a chance the more aggressive guards will show up in the lists.

MINUTES PER FREE THROW MADE

This number should be as small as possible for effective free throw shooters, especially forwards. For guards, the number is only okay to be small if the player can hit their free throws and get into the lane without turning the ball over.

1. A.J. Ogilvy, Vanderbilt (5.1) – It’s rare to find a reliable big man who shoots 76.9% from the stripe, but Ogilvy once again shows his level-headed approach to the game by leading his second category thus far. Leading the SEC in this category as a freshman is very impressive.

2. Nick Calathes, Florida (8.2) – And yet another fabulous freshman leading the category. Calathes not only shot 72.4% from the free throw line and got to the line 199 times, he led the Gators in scoring and had a better than 2/1 assist to turnover ratio, proving his excellent decision-making.

3. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU (8.3) – This is a bit of an outlier, considering Mitchell only saw 3 games. However, he played 22 minutes per game in those three games, and hit 8 out of his 10 free throw attempts.

4. Tyler Smith, Tennessee (9.0) – The ever-dynamic and talented Smith was a force inside for the Vols this season, including at the stripe, where he hit 70.6% of his attempts.

5. Alonzo Gee, Alabama (9.4) – This is a case of Gee’s affinity to avoid an organized offense and instead charge the lane, as Gee only shot 67.9% from the free throw line but got there 156 times in 994 minutes.

5. Jodie Meeks, Kentucky (9.4) – Another way in which Meeks shows his very high potential is at the charity stripe, where he shot 79.4% and got there a lot for a guard without turning the ball over much.

7. Joe Duffy, Vanderbilt (9.5) – Another skewed stat, as Duffy only saw 19 minutes and hit both of his two attempted free throws.

7. Zach Graham, Ole Miss (9.5) – Much like Gee, Graham has a tendency to drive the ball too often, turn the ball over too much, and only hits 66.2% of his free throws.

9. Patrick Patterson, Kentucky (10.3) – Patterson is again much like Ogilvy, just less so. He’s insanely talented in the paint and gets to the stripe effectively, where he hits a solid 73.1%.

10. J.P. Prince, Tennessee (10.4) – And yet another overly aggressive guard, as Prince shoots a miserable 55.7% from the free throw line and turned the ball over at a very high rate.

I’m somewhat surprised at the number of guards (5) in this list, and three of them shouldn’t be shooting as many as they are.

Next up will be minutes per free throw attempted.

It’s raining threes – and the offensively inept…

Now we’re to minutes per three pointers attempted. This list includes talented shooters, but also some that would rather toss up a bomb instead of trying to work within the reigns of an offensive scheme.

MINUTES PER THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS

1. Troy Brewer, Georgia (3.3) – After seeing 32 games of playing time, this sophomore-to-be proved that he was unafraid to take a long-ranged shot, and that he couldn’t hit over 30% of them.

2. Kelvin Lewis, Auburn (3.7) – As has already been established, Brewer and Lewis are very similar in their ability to jack up too many shots and hit less than 30% from long range. Both should either work on their stroke or stop shooting.

3. Chris Warren, Ole Miss (4.2) – Warren solidifies his spot as the most prolific and efficient three-point shooter in the SEC with this ranking. Warren shoots 38.9% from three on 265 attempts.

4. Marcus Thornton, LSU (4.4) – Thornton is the scariest overall scorer in the conference, and this is just another layer of his ability. A 37.7% long-range shooter, Thornton put up 239 attempts from behind the arc.

4. Trevor Gaskins, Ole Miss (4.4) – Gaskins is another Rebel sharp-shooter, shooting 38.7% from three with 119 attempts and 8 starts.

4. David Huertas, Ole Miss (4.4) – Huertas is the third Rebel player in the top five three-point shooters in the conference, hitting 36.1% of his 208 three-point attempts.

7. Jodie Meeks, Kentucky (5.1) – Although Meeks only saw 11 games, and started 5 of those, he showed potential as a shooter. While only hitting 32.0% of his threes, his stroke should greatly improve with more playing time.

8. Terry Martin, LSU (5.3) – While Martin showed some ability as a scorer, hitting 37.2% of his shots overall, he only brought down 30.5% of his three-point attempts. He did, however, attempt 141 of them in 752 minutes. Don’t look for Martin’s shot to improve, considering he’s entering his senior season.

9. Evaldas Baniulis, South Carolina (5.6) – As I stated in my previous post, Baniulis has tremendous potential as a shooter entering his junior season. He brought down 44.2% of his 95 attempts last season, and if I were Horn I’d be increasing those attempts as much as possible.

10. Zam Fredrick, South Carolina (5.8) – Fredrick rounds out the Top 10 as a mediocre 35.2% shooter from long range, although he attempted a high 193 shots from that range.

One thing of note is the fact that Ole Miss and South Carolina will be high-octane offenses next season, with five members of the Top 10.

Next is minutes per free throws made.

Some news updates…

As was suspected, Billy Humphrey was kicked off of the Georgia hoops team by embattled coach Dennis Felton. Losing the upperclassman shooter will mean youth in the Bulldogs’ guards and could hurt the team’s free throw shooting, as Humphrey hit 83.1% of his to lead the team (outside of Brewer, who only attempted nine). I’ve updated the excel file to include this change – Georgia now returns 50.22% of their scoring moving them to 6th while Auburn moves to 4th and Ole Miss moves to 5th. UGA also now returns 54.17% of their rebounding, dropping the team to 7th while Kentucky moves to 5th and Tennessee moves to 6th.

The Dallas Mavericks have picked up Charles Rhodes from Mississippi State, avoiding the European league…for now.

In other Mississippi State news, word has it that junior-to-be shooting guard Barry Stewart has broken his foot in a pick-up game, although word is that he will be fully healed by season’s start. Stewart’s shooting touch suffered last season – much like Beverly’s – and his lack of practice over the summer could hurt the Bulldogs.

Also on the MSU front, Jamont Gordon has apparently “verbally committed” to Mike Conley and will join the 76′ers summer camp soon, effectively eliminating him from any discussion for next season SEC talk.

Three SEC teams will begin, or have begun, breaking ground on new basketball facilities in the near future. Ole Miss’ building looks to span over 51,000 square feet and cost over $11 million, LSU’s will be 58,960 square feet and cost over $14 million, while there aren’t any firm details on plans for Mississippi State’s, but the building is in the works and there is an artist rendering on how it should look.

More to come soon…

Shooting specialists…

Next up is minutes per made three-pointer. While the SEC lost its top five shooters in this category, including the likes of Foster, Lofton, Riley, Ole Miss’ Rodney Jones, and JuJuan Smith, newcomers like Tennessee’s Scotty Hopson should bring shooting prowess back to the SEC.

MINUTES PER THREE-POINTER MADE

1. Chris Warren, Ole Miss (10.8) – Warren was a heavily underrated shooter last season, as his ball-handling prowess got most of the publicity. His 38.9% mark from long range should only improve as the sophomore-to-be returns as the SEC’s most dangerous three-point shooter.

2. Troy Brewer, Georgia (11.0) – Surprisingly, Brewer’s most impressive ability is putting up shots. Despite his ridiculously high amount of three-pointers taken (77 in just 253 minutes) and hitting just 29.9% of those, he ranks second in the conference in this category.

3. Trevor Gaskins, Ole Miss (11.3) – A diamond-in-the-rough for Kennedy’s squad, Gaskins is yet another impressive freshman from last season’s Ole Miss team. Gaskins hit 38.7% of his 119 three-point attempts, and should be among the most lethal shooters in the conference this coming season.

4. Marcus Thornton, LSU (11.6) – If you’re not tired of seeing this guy’s name on these lists yet, you will be. Thornton was a do-everything guy for the Tigers last season, including his impressive 37.7%  mark from 239 attempts from three. Thornton is possibly the single most dynamic player in the conference.

5. David Huertas, Ole Miss (12.1) – Seeing a trend here? The Rebels grab three of the top five spots in this category with Huertas, who drained an above-average 36.1% of his well-above-average 208 attempts. Huertas will look to be a leader on next year’s Rebel squad as a junior, who lose a great deal of inside presence and should be a very young team.

6. Evaldas Baniulis, South Carolina (12.7) – Although Baniulis (how do you pronounce that name?) had one of the highest three-point percentages in the conference last season – an astounding 44.2% – he was for the most part unheralded. With just 95 attempts during his sophomore season, there’s no reason this junior-to-be shouldn’t be moved into the starting lineup as a potential break-out star.

7. Kelvin Lewis, Auburn (12.8) – Another case of simply too many poor judgements, Lewis hit just 29.2% of his attempts from long range and attempted 48 of them in just 179 minutes.

8. Adam Allen, Florida (14.3) – Allen was a heavily under-the-radar type last season for the Gators and would have been the team’s best three-point shooter if not for Jai Lucas. With Lucas returning, there’s little hope for this 42.1% long-range shooter to move into the starting lineup, but this sophomore-to-be will have his day as an SEC stand-out.

9. Brandis Raley-Ross, South Carolina (15.1) – Surprisingly, this is a case of an unbelievably high percentage and not from amount taken. Possibly the most efficient shooter in the conference last season not named Shan Foster, Raley-Ross’ only flaw was lacking the confidence to attempt enough bombs. The junior-to-be hit a blazing 51.4% of them (while only shooting 48.8% from the floor) and yet only attempted 72 in 558 minutes. If this young man could shoot some more, he could open eyes not just in the SEC, but the nation.

10. Jodie Meeks, Kentucky (15.9) – Meeks is a under-utitlized shooter with a ton of potential, but will need to see more playing time to fully utitlize it. While ranking among the top ten in the conference in this category, he shoots just 32.0% from behind the arc and attempted 50 in just 255 minutes. If Meeks were to see the floor more often, I suspect his percentages would go up, as he played in just 11 games but started in five of them.

First impression is shock with the Rebels. While the Rebs will be relying heavily upon their young shooters next season with the loss of Williams and Curtis, it looks as if they may be okay to do so, considering the overwhelming impressiveness of their freshmen’s efficiency.

South Carolina, with their huge arsenal returning, could be a hot-shooting team next season as well, and one I would look at as a early pre-season dark horse.

Surprising not to see 2006-07’s most promising freshman shooter and SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly. Beverly shot effectively from long distance (37.8%) although not nearly as reliably as his first season, and simply didn’t attempt many shots considering the amount of time he saw.

Next up will be three-pointers attempted…

Ball-hogs…

Next up is minutes/field goal attempts. While not necessarily ball-hogs, most players who fall in that category will show up in this list. Keep in mind that if you’re draining 50-60% of your shots it’s okay to hog the ball while reading the list – and with that said, here’s the top 10.

MINUTES PER FIELD GOALS ATTEMPTED

This number doesn’t necessarily have an ideal level, but does point out which players are the least afraid to put up a shot. Shooting percentages and numbers of turnovers help to put this category in perspective.

1. Marcus Thornton, LSU (2.1) – Thornton was possibly the single most important player to his team last season, averaging nearly 20 points per game and ranking second in the conference in field goal attempts. Thornton quite obviously was not hurting his team with his attempts, hitting 43.6% of his shots and 37.7% of them from behind the arc. His rate of turnovers was also low, only turning the ball over once every 15.3 minutes.

2. Devan Downey, South Carolina (2.3) – While Thornton ranked second in field goals attempted, Downey led the conference in that category. Downey is slightly less efficient than Thornton, hitting 42.3% of his shots and 35.1% from long range. Downey’s turnover rate is slightly worse also, at 13.8, but more impressive considering his position on the floor.

3. Austin Steed, South Carolina (2.4) – In just six games, Steed proved he was unafraid of being the shooter, and still hit 6-of-12. Steed and Holmes provide a very talented frontcourt entering their sophomore season.

3. Chris Warren, Ole Miss (2.4) – Another fearless freshman, Warren carried the Rebels to another 20+ win season. Warren attempted 127 more shots than any other player on the squad, but still shot just under 40% from the field and 38.9% of his three-point attempts.

5. Alonzo Gee, Alabama (2.5) – While Gee shot well from the field (41.9%), too many of them came from behind the arc as he just hit 31.9% of his 113 attempts from that distance. Although Gee is known for questionable decision-making, his 15.8 turnover rate isn’t bad.

5. Kelvin Lewis, Auburn (2.5) – This is one of the bad cases of ball-hogging. Lewis saw 21 games and about 8.5 minutes per game, but attempted 71 shots and only brought down 29.6% of them. The sophomore-to-be guard shot a similar 29.2% from three and simply should work on his shooting touch before he allows himself to put up so many shots.

7. Zam Fredrick, South Carolina (2.6) – Further proving how few players the Gamecocks relied on last season, Fredrick serves as the third USC player in the top seven most prolific shooters in the conference last season. Fredrick shot decently well, and took care of the ball last season.

7. A.J. Ogilvy, Vanderbilt (2.6) – Ogilvy dominated in the paint last season for the Commodores as a freshman. Offensive efficiency was Ogilvy’s strong-point, shooting 58.8% from the field, while his 10.5 turnover rate is a bit high. With that said, Ogilvy can only help the ‘Dores by taking as many shots as possible.

9. Josh Dollard, Auburn (2.7) – A common theme amongst this group of players and the teams they play for is a lack of depth or balance. Auburn is certainly no exception, and Dollard led the Tigers in most shots taken per minute played. Dollard, a senior-to-be forward, shot very well from the field – not so well from three – and turned the ball over a bit much.

9. Rasheem Barrett, Auburn (2.7) – Barrett is yet another Tiger unafraid of attempting shots, but is far less efficient at doing so than Dollard. Barrett shot just 37.8% from the field and 29.7% from behind the arc, although his ball-handling was acceptable. Barrett certainly falls in the “should shoot less” category.

9. David Huertas, Ole Miss (2.7) – Again accentuating how guard-reliant the Rebels were last season (where much more weight should have been given to Curtis and Williams), Huertas is the second sharp-shooting ball-handler on the Rebel staff that ranked in this Top 10. Huertas will look to anchor the very guard-heavy roster next season as a junior.

9. Troy Brewer, Georgia (2.7) – Brewer is yet another freshman who was too out of touch with his shooting ability, and thus hurt his team last season. Brewer saw just 7.9 minutes per game and yet put up 93 attempts, hitting just 30.1% of his shots.

What is noticeable already is the common theme among the teams with multiple representatives on the previous two lists. Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Ole Miss – and LSU could be included in this list – are all squads who have little depth and required two or three (or one, in LSU’s case) players to bear the load of the rest of the team.

Surprisingly lacking this list is Patrick Patterson from UK, who placed as the fifth-highest most efficient scorer and yet only attempted one field goal every 3.2 minutes. If I were Gillespie, I’d be sure to increase Patterson’s attempts and touches.

Next up will be Minutes Per Three Pointer Made.

NBA Draft results, including a shocker…

In a surprising NBA draft, Joe Crawford from Kentucky squeaked into the last picks of the second round while First-Team All-SEC and SEC Player of the Year runner-up Jamont Gordon from Mississippi State was not drafted.

Gordon, who was somehow banking on being drafted – predicted as high as 25th on various sites – now has a mess on his hands. Gordon has an agent representing him, but speculation is that he did not actually pay the guy – which would leave Gordon elligible to return to MSU. If this speculation regarding his agent is incorrect and payment was made, then the junior would not be able to return to school.

Added to the mix are rumors that Gordon’s eagerness for the next level overtook his desire to keep up his grades or attend classes last semester, and that he would have some work to do if he wanted to return to school this summer to improve his GPA – if he would be able to fix the situation at all.

Three weeks ago, the power/point was seemingly quoted as stating that if he were to not be selected in the draft, he would return to school.

All of this is speculation at the moment, and the situation should be clearer tomorrow. I’ll report at that time. One thing is for sure, if Gordon were to somehow return to school, he would be an overwhelming favorite for SEC Player of the Year and Mississippi State’s chances in the Western Division and in the SEC as a whole would be far different.

Here’s a list of SEC player selected in the draft and the teams that chose them.

FIRST ROUND

#14 overall pick: Anthony Randolph, LSU – Freshman, 15.6ppg, 8.5rpg, 2.3bpg – Golden State Warriors

#16 overall pick: Marreese Speights, Florida – Sophomore, 14.5ppg, 8.1rpg, 62.4% FG – Philadelphia 76ers

SECOND ROUND

#39 overall pick: Sonny Weems, Arkansas – Senior, 15.0ppg, 4.5rpg, 37.0% 3PT – Chicago Bulls

#49 overall pick: Richard Hendrix, Alabama – Junior, 17.8ppg, 10.1rpg, 2.0bpg – Golden State Warriors

#51 overall pick: Shan Foster, Vanderbilt – Senior, 20.3ppg, 4.9rpg, 46.9% 3PT – Dallas Mavericks

#58 overall pick: Joe Crawford, Kentucky – Senior, 17.9ppg, 3.6rpg, 36.4% 3PT – Los Angeles Lakers

More coverage on Jamont Gordon and other undrafted SEC players tomorrow…

Who’s returning what…

Here’s a list of each team, ranked from top to bottom, on percentages of returning points and rebounds. This is about as official as it can get, as all of these statistics were taken from the schools’ websites. This list includes transfers, NBA draft losses, and graduates, but not returning red-shirts.

POINTS

1. South Carolina – 91.18%

2. Florida – 77.39%

3. LSU – 71.52%

4. Georgia – 66.03%

5. Auburn – 65.77%

6. Ole Miss – 63.43%

7. Alabama – 48.19%

8. Kentucky – 46.19%

9. Tennessee – 44.43%

10. Mississippi State – 42.31%

11. Vanderbilt – 40.72%

12. Arkansas – 30.16%

REBOUNDS

1. South Carolina – 84.64%

2. Florida – 69.98%

3. LSU – 67.97%

4. Auburn – 67.11%

5. Georgia – 63.28%

6. Kentucky – 62.85%

7. Tennessee – 61.67%

8. Mississippi State – 54.08%

9. Alabama – 51.95%

10. Vanderbilt – 48.75%

11. Ole Miss – 44.51%

12. Arkansas – 36.78%

—Any drastic difference in a team’s place in the lists could point to a potential problem this coming season. For example, Ole Miss returns 63.43% of their points but just 44.51% of their rebounds. Thus, the Rebels are losing a signficant amount of inside presence but return a good number of guards. Rebounding and post presence could be a challenge for Ole Miss this season.

—South Carolina returns a surprising amount of depth all-around, and should be significantly more competitive than last season. The big question mark will be the new coach, and how smoothly a new system will be incorporated.

—With the amount of talent on their roster, Florida is poised to be among the nation’s elite in the next year or two. It’s possible this coming season, if the Gators can replace Speights quickly enough.

—Alabama’s fate will be almost entirely tied to the return of Ronald Steele and the incoming Jamychal Green. The Tide return a below-average amount of scoring and rebounding, so Steele’s decision-making and scoring along with Green’s rebounding will prove vital to this year’s success.

—Arkansas returns so little, it will be very difficult for them to compete this season. The ‘Backs could suffer the largest drop of any team this coming season.

J’Mison Morgan abandons LSU…

The Tigers have lost their star recruit, 6′10″ center J’Mison Morgan. After the change of leadership and the jumping of Love to the NBA, Morgan dropped his committment to the Tigers and was released to UCLA.

Although Michael Thornton has serious talent, LSU has some serious holes and is going to struggle next season…again.

Incoming Rivals Top-150 recruits…

To begin to grasp some amount of perspective regarding who is returning for this coming SEC season, I thought now [just before the NBA draft] a good time to review which SEC schools will be bringing in the top talent out of high-school. Here’s a current listing of committed players…

• #5 overall – Scotty Hopson – Tennessee (6′5″, 185lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: Tennessee, Texas, Cincinatti, Kentucky, Louisville, Mississippi State
  - “Bouncy wing with a ton of upside”
• #21 overall – Jamychal Green – Alabama (6′8″, 225lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Marquette, Ole Miss, Virginia
  - “Athletic forward with developing skills”
• #26 overall – Eloy Vargas – Florida (6′10″, 210lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Florida, Florida State, Louisville, Miami-FL, Pittsburgh, Clemson
  - “A skilled forward”
• #27 overall – Kenny Kadji – Florida (6′10″, 240lb. – Center/Forward)
  Offers: Florida, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, Connecticut
  - “Long, athletic forward”
• #28 overall – DeAndre Liggins – Kentucky (6′5″, 190lb. – Point Guard/Forward)
  Offers: Kentucky, Memphis, Illinois, Kansas
  - “Point forward with strong passing skills”
• #30 overall – Howard Thompkins – Georgia (6′8″, 225lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Florida, Florida State
  - “A very skilled power forward”
• #38 overall – Tony Mitchell – Alabama (6′6″, 185lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Alabama, Cincinatti, Clemson, Georgia, South Carolina
  - “Athletic forward who puts up numbers”
• #40 overall – Emmanuel Negedu – ? (6′6″, 225lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Memphis
  - “Extremely athletic long forward” – Of note, Negedu recently de-committed to Arizona and is one of few unsigned top players. Indiana is seen as a favorite due to his AAU ties to the state, while the Vols seem a longshot.
• #41 overall – Rashanti Harris – ? (6′8″, 238lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Mississippi State, Ole Miss
  - “Athletic forward with upside” – Harris will likely attend prep school, as he does not qualify this season academically. MSU is seen as a clear favorite, as Harris resides just 25 miles away.
• #43 overall – Darius Miller – Kentucky (6′6″, 215lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Kentucky, Louisville, Miami-FL, Tennessee, Xavier, Cincinatti, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas State
  - “Great defensive instincts”
• #52 overall – Jeff Taylor – Vanderbilt (6′7″, 198lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Vanderbilt, Texas
  - “Putting up big numbers out west”
• #53 overall – Renaldo Woolridge – Tennessee (6′8″, 205lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Tennessee, Georgetown, USC
  - “Intruiging forward having a strong junior season”
• #57 overall – Romero Osby – Mississippi State (6′8″, 230lb. – Power Forward/Point)
  Offers: Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Kentucky, Memphis
  - “Distributing point forward”
• #60 overall – Courtney Fortson – Arkansas (5′10″, 175lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Arkansas, Florida State, Kentucky, Tennessee
  - “Dynamic point guard who can score”
• #65 overall – Terrance Henry – Ole Miss (6′9″, 190lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Miami-FL
  - “Multidimensional, long forward”
• #67 overall – Bud Mackey – ? (6′4″, 192lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: None
  - “Long combo guard who can make plays” – Mackey shows interest in Florida, but Cincinatti is seen as a clear favorite, among Georgia Tech and Xavier.
• #68 overall – Philip Jurick – Tennessee (6′10″, 250lb. – Center)
  Offers: Tennessee, Auburn, Clemson, Indiana, Kentucky, Miami-FL, Michigan, Ole Miss
  - “Athletic post with upside”
• #72 overall – Lance Goulbourne – Vanderbilt (6′7″, 215lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Vanderbilt, Virginia, Marquette, Michigan, Rutgers
  - “Bouncy forward makes plays inside and outside”
• #78 overall – Jason Henry – Arkansas (6′7″, 190lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Arkansas, Cincinatti, Clemson, Louisville, Oklahoma, Tennessee
  - “A multi-dimensional perimeter player”
• #83 overall – Demarquis Bost – Mississippi State (6′2″, 170lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: Mississippi State, Virginia, High Point, Cincinatti, Florida State, Miami-FL
  - “Explosive guard who defends”
• #87 overall – Steve Tchiengang – Vanderbilt (6′8″, 230lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Vanderbilt, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
  - “Athletic wing who can slash and shoot”
• #89 overall – Andrew Steele – Alabama (6′3″, 195lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: Alabama, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee
  - “A tough guard in the mold of his brother Ron Steele”
• #91 overall – Ray Shipman – Florida (6′3″, 180lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Florida, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Miami-FL, Ole Miss, Clemson
  - “Solid wing who can score”
• #94 overall – Brad Tinsley – Vanderbilt (6′3″, 180lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Butler, Pepperdine, Arizona State, Oregon, USC
  - “Solid combo guard with an all-around game”
• #96 overall – Allan Chaney – Florida (6′8″, 220lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Florida, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Virginia, Marist, Boston College
  - “Big bodied post emerged July [sic]“
• #102 overall – Erving Walker – Florida (5′6″, 140lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Florida, Villanova
  - “Dynamic undersized guard”
• #104 overall – Rotnei Clarke – Arkansas (6′0″, 175lb. – Shooting Guard)
  Offers: Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Gonzaga, Tulsa, Oral Roberts
  - “One of the best shooters in the class”
• #105 overall – Frankie Sullivan – Auburn (6′1″, 185lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Virginia, UAB
  - “Strong penetrating combo guard”
• #117 overall – Travis Leslie – Georgia (6′4″, 185lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Georgia, Georgia Tech, Penn State, South Carolina, Clemson
  - “Premier athlete on the wing”
• #120 overall – Delwan Graham – LSU (6′5″, 180lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina, South Florida, UCF, Auburn, Cincinatti
  - “Aggressive forward with a top notch motor”
• #128 overall – Kenny Gabriel – Auburn (6′8″, 197lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Auburn, Miami-FL, South Florida, Charlotte, East Carolina, Winthrop
  - “Versatile forward with length”
• #129 overall – Brandon Moore – Arkansas (6′9″, 180lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: Arkansas, Marquette, Tulane, LA-Lafayette, TCU
  - “Super shot blocker and rebounder”
• #130 overall – Storm Warren – LSU (6′6″, 215lb. – Power Forward)
  Offers: LSU, USC, UCLA, LA-Tech, LA-Monroe, Baylor, Florida
  - “Defensive presence around the basket”
• #134 overall – Murphy Holloway – Ole Miss (6′7″, 215lb. – Small Forward)
  Offers: Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Clemson, DePaul
  - “Athletic wing with a super motor”
• #144 overall – Dustin Ware – Georgia (6′0″, 155lb. – Point Guard)
  Offers: Georgia, SE Missouri State
  - “Consumate playmaker”

A ranking of SEC schools’ recruiting classes is to come…

My predictions vs. real life…

Now that the season is long gone, it’s time to analyze how well each SEC team did compared to my pre-season expectations of them. Here’s a basic look, per team.

Alabama

Predicted Record: 19-12, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (1 or 2 seed)

Actual Record: 16-15, 5-11
Actual Postseason: None

I underestimated the impact that the loss of Steele’s decision-making would have on the Tide. The only non-conference game I got wrong was UA’s loss to Belmont, but the Tide tanked in-conference, finishing 5th in the West.

Arkansas

Predicted Record: 25-5, 12-4
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (4 or 5 seed)

Actual Record: 20-10, 9-7
Actual Postseason: NCAA (9 seed)

Arkansas simply never found their offense and Beverly lost some of his touch. I missed all three of the Razorbacks’ losses in the non-conference, and the ‘Backs never challenged for the overall title, finishing 2nd in the West.

Auburn

Predicted Record: 19-10, 8-8
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (10 or 11 seed)

Actual Record: 14-15, 4-12
Actual Postseason: None

Apparently experience doesn’t equal more consistent play on the plains, as almost the same team fell back into typical Auburn standards. Injuries and suspensions hurt the squad, but it doesn’t seem like that compensated for my overestimation of the Tigers.

Florida

Predicted Record: 21-9, 8-8
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (10 or 11 seed)

Actual Record: 21-10, 8-8
Actual Postseason: NIT (2 seed)

Although I somehow managed to pull off some funky math, I was almost spot-on about the Gators. I figured the squad would look impressive in the non-conference, and end up even in the conference. I figured, despite a weak RPI, the team would be invited to the NCAA Tournament based on the previous year’s national title, but was wrong.

Georgia

Predicted Record: 16-11, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (3 or 4 seed)

Actual Record: 13-16, 4-12
Actual Postseason: NCAA (14 seed)

Despite overestimating the Bulldogs, the squad actually surpassed my postseason expectations due to a now-infamous late-season surge that sent them to a SEC Tournament Championship and an NCAA bid. Although the ‘Dawgs put up a good fight, 3-seed Xavier ended their run in the first round.

Kentucky

Predicted Record: 23-8, 11-5
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (3 or 4 seed)

Actual Record: 18-11, 12-4
Actual Postseason: NCAA (11 seed)

I was dead wrong about the Wildcats’ non-conference performance. The ‘Cats floundered, including home losses to San Diego and Gardner-Webb by a combined total of 25 points. However, Gillespie righted the sinking ship by performing well in-conference and barely surpassing my expectations.

LSU

Predicted Record: 11-18, 3-13
Predicted Postseason: None

Actual Record: 13-17, 6-10
Actual Postseason: None

The Tigers were looking to prove me exactly right, losing 12 of 14 games in the middle of the season. However, Brady was then fired and the team went on to win four straight conference games and beat my conference prediction by three games.

Mississippi State

Predicted Record: 26-4, 13-3
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (1-3 seed)

Actual Record: 21-9, 12-4
Actual Postseason: NCAA (8 seed)

As the Bulldogs adjusted to a new offense, there were growing pains I didn’t expect in the form of losses to South Alabama, Miami-FL, Miami-OH, and Southern Illinois. Ironically, if those early-season stumbles had been avoided, MSU would have nearly matched the predictions. State did go on to win the West and compete for the overall title, though.

Ole Miss

Predicted Record: 13-17, 3-13
Predicted Postseason: None

Actual Record: 21-9, 7-9
Actual Postseason: NIT (2 seed)

Kennedy inspired this team to an excellent non-conference showing, but the team lost its magic in the confines of the SEC. Warren proved a difference-maker, as the team greatly surpassed my expectations.

South Carolina

Predicted Record: 14-16, 4-12
Predicted Postseason: None

Actual Record: 13-17, 5-11
Actual Postseason: None

This was one of my better predictions, although the Gamecocks didn’t fare quite as well as I expected in the Old Spice Classic.

Tennessee

Predicted Record: 26-5, 13-3
Predicted Postseason: NCAA (1 seed)

Actual Record: 28-3, 14-2
Actual Postseason: NCAA (2 seed)

Although the Vols actually performed better than I expected overall, the team still [unjustly] did not receive a top seed in the tournament. With that said, my call was pretty close to correct on this one.

Vanderbilt

Predicted Record: 19-12, 7-9
Predicted Postseason: NIT (1 or 2 seed)

Actual Record: 25-6, 10-6
Actual Postseason: NCAA (4 seed)

The Commodores also swept through their non-conference competition, for them on the back of Shan Foster. Foster – eventual SEC Player of the Year – was an incredible 3-point shooter and thrusted the ‘Dores to a high NCAA seed.

Overall

I ended up missing the total number of games won by an average of 0.75 games per team, although that number softens the misses on both sides of the spectrum. Not terrible, but I can certainly do better.

On to 2008/09!

Two new SEC coaches…

In case some of you have been living in a hole, in a cave, with a giant rock blocking the entrance, on Mars, with your hands over your eyes and thumbs in your ears – John Brady from LSU was let go after this [miserable] season and Dave Odom of South Carolina “retired” after a simlarly terrible year.

Replacing Brady around mid-April was Trent Johnson, coming from Stanford’s Sweet Sixteen (28-8) squad this past season. Johnson was named Pac-10 Coach of the Year this past season, has taken teams to the NCAA Tournament four years, and coached previously at Nevada, where he also saw a Sweet Sixteen appearance. Johnson was a finalist for this year’s Skip Prosser Man of the Year award, and is noted for his impressive management of his players off the court.

Taking over for the Gamecocks is Darrin Horn, another Sweet 16 participant, this one from Western Kentucky. Horn put together a ridiculous 111-48 record at WKU, including this year’s school-record-tying 29 wins and just 7 losses. Horn also posted three straight 20+ win seasons, the first WKU coach to ever manage that feat. Horn is known for a high-intensity tempo and pressure defense.

Both coaches are excellent choices and great catches. Each seem to bring a large amount of success with them wherever they go – although the Southeastern Conference is a lot tougher to win in. We’ll see just how great the two can function in the SEC.

SEC Tournament first-round games…

Overall: 142-41 (77.6%)
Vs. Spread: 65-66 (49.6%)
Overall (SEC): 49-23 (68.1%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 32-39 (45.1%)
East vs. West: East, 25-11

Took a beating yesterday…the percentages are falling pretty badly. With several SEC teams ending their season yesterday, on to the recaps…

(13-18, 6-11) LSU [73] vs. (14-17, 6-11) South Carolina [77]: The Gamecocks caught a bad case of streakiness, but still managed to hold off a late Tiger surge to end LSU’s season. Depth was amazingly vacant for both squads, but balanced scoring for USC’s scorers and unbelievable ball-handling by everyone – but Downey in particular – proved the difference in the game. Downey finished with a career-high-tying 11 assists and 12 points for his second double-double of the season, but didn’t shoot well (4-of-13 for 30.8%). Holmes has continued his late-season surge by tying for a team-high 16 points but didn’t rebound particularly well, with just 4. LSU’s pure talent was obvious, and if the team gathered some depth this would be a very dangerous team. Randolph shot 9-of-15 from the field for 22 points and grabbed 8 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times. Also turning the ball over 6 times was Chris Johnson, who finished with his 5th double-double of the season and his 4th in the last 6 games, with 13 points and 14 rebounds. Marcus Thornton didn’t shoot particularly well from three, hitting just 3-of-10 of his shots from that range, but finished with 17 points and 6 rebounds. Also of note, the SEC’s second-best blocking team swatted just one shot, and the Tigers turned the ball over 19 times.
Impact [LSU]: This obviously ends the Tigers’ season, but LSU has a lot of talent to work with next season.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks will have to win the conference tournament to make the postseason, regardless of the win.
Stat of the Game: USC’s +11 turnover margin

(26-6, 11-6) #18 Vanderbilt [93] vs. (14-16, 4-13) Auburn [82]: These two teams’ lack of defense was magnified by their playing of each other, as the Tigers shot 47.5% from the floor, scored 82 points, and still lost by 11. Vandy’s star players came out huge for this game, as Ogilvy and Foster combined for 53 points. Ogilvy missed just one shot out of 13 and claimed 5 rebounds, while Foster nailed 6-of-9 shots from behind the arc and grabbed 4 rebounds. Although Beal only managed 7 points, he also dished out 7 assists and didn’t turn the ball over. Auburn’s Dewayne Reed had a similar game, scoring just 8 points but handing out 9 assists and not turning the ball over. Barrett led the Tigers in scoring with 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting and Tolbert managed 17 points but shot just 4-of-13 from the field.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores didn’t necessarily increase their seeding with a win over a very weak Auburn team, the matchup against Arkansas could make more of a statement.
Impact [Auburn]: The loss means the end of Auburn’s season, as next season looks to be similar to this one.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 27 assists

(21-11, 8-9) Florida [69] vs. (17-15, 6-11) Alabama [80]: This was a significant upset, as Alabama’s defense was surprisingly stout and the Gators continued showing no intensity on the defensive end of the floor. Mykal Riley, the SEC’s second-best three-point shooter, hit an overwhelming 8-of-12 three-point shots to carry ‘Bama through the game with 26 points, while Hendrix shot 7-of-13 for 22 points and 8 rebounds. Florida could find no offense, as their leading scorer was Speights with just 15 points, and just one other Gators scored more than 10 points.
Impact [Florida]: Florida, with an RPI of 72 and a loss to a team that’s barely above .500 on the year, has effectively sealed itself off from NCAA Tournament consideration. Look for the Gators to surface as a top seed in the NIT.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are now just one win away from being considered for the NIT, but that road will go through Mississippi State, who swept them this season.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 41 rebounds to Florida’s 28

(21-10, 7-10) Ole Miss [95] vs. (14-16, 5-12) Georgia [97]: This was possibly a bigger upset than the Alabama/Florida game, as the Rebels were the three-seed in the West and Georgia was the worst SEC team record-wise. This one went to overtime and was as close as I figured it would be, but went to the Bulldogs as the team shot slightly better than the Rebs but took 11 less shots from the floor. Woodbury was the surprise scoring leader for UGA, hitting 9-of-12 shots for 25 points and 7 rebounds, while Gaines also pitched in 22 points and 5 rebounds, but shot just 5-of-14. Warren’s off-game could’ve cost his team the game, as he shot just 2-of-10 from the floor and just 1-of-6 from three to manage 8 points. Huertas tried to make up for it, shooting 7-of-11 from long-range to put up a season-high 29 points and 5 rebounds, while Curtis remained ever-reliable on the inside, scoring 26 points on 11-of-16 shooting and claiming 7 rebounds. Polynice also had a good game, handing out 9 assists to just 1 turnover.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels join the Gators in teams that likely played their way out of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, as now a top-seed in the NIT will be likely.
Impact [Georgia]: Even with the big win, the Bulldogs will still need to win the SEC Tournament to make the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 8 blocks

SEC Tournament First-Round odds…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

(13-17, 6-10) LSU [W4, #159] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [E5, #140]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU – The Tigers’ lanky inside men will be able to keep Downey shy from charging the lane, and LSU simply has more momentum at the moment.
—Keys: If fouls are called closely, the game may favor USC’s lane-driving. If not, LSU’s shot-blockers will have a field day unless the Gamecocks get hot from behind the arc.

(25-6, 10-6) #18 Vanderbilt [E3, #10] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [W6, #154]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 8.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – This is the easiest pick in some time, as the Tigers are seriously overmatched against the ‘Dores.
—Keys: The only thing that could keep this game close is Vandy’s tendency to play poorly on the road while Auburn has a good amount of experience on their squad.

(21-10, 8-8) Florida [E4, #65] vs. (16-15, 5-11) Alabama [W5, #118]
Spread: Florida by 3
Pick: Florida – Alabama’s utter lack of defense will cost them this game, as the Gators are one of the most offensively-efficient teams in the conference.
—Keys: Hendrix should gain the advantage inside against Speights, but the Florida guards are much better shooters and should have a field day in this game.

(21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [W3, #44] vs. (13-16, 4-12) Georgia [E6, #152]
Spread: Ole Miss by 4.5
Pick: Ole Miss – Although this should be an entertainingly close game, the Rebels’ offensive execution should win out.
—Keys: Ole Miss’ youth could prove fatal in a high-pressure situation against a pretty solid defense in Georgia. The production of the Rebels’ freshmen will be vital to their victory.

LSU contacts Southern Cal’s Tim Floyd…

According to Fox Sports, USC’s Tim Floyd was contacted about the vacancy in Baton Rouge. Floyd has already said he wasn’t interested in LSU and that he would coach at Southern Cal the rest of his career.

Floyd certainly wouldn’t be a shabby pickup, as he’s done well to make USC competitive in a competitive league. However, my gut says this isn’t going to happen.

SEC Tournament Break-Down

Now that the seeds are set and the Southeastern Conference’s 49th all-time league tournament is set to begin this Thursday, March 13th, here is a breakdown of each matchup, predictions for their outcomes, and the times they will be playing. The number following the “#” is that squad’s seeding in their division, and the numeral in brackets is the team’s RPI, per www.kenpom.com.

All SEC Tournament games except for the Final Round will be televised by Raycom Sports, and the Final Round will be televised nationally by CBS.

1st Round

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #5: 13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [#139] vs. (West #4: 13-17, 6-10) LSU [#159]

Offense: Advantage - South Carolina: The Gamecocks don’t shoot particularly well overall, but put up a ton of shots by forcing turnovers. USC is also lethal from three, where they rank third in the conference at 36.7% as a team. The Tigers rank near the bottom of the conference in points per game and field-goal percentage.

Defense: Advantage – LSU: The Tigers’ defense has been above average all year, built around the blocking prowess of both Johnson and Randolph. LSU ranks second in the conference in blocks per game and fourth in field-goal percentage defense, but tend to allow a lot of opponent attempts by turning the ball over and missing offensive rebounding opportunities.

Playmakers: Advantage – LSU: Both teams are short on depth, but the Tigers seem to be more talented overall with All-SEC Freshman candidate Anthony Randolph inside who ranks 3rd in the conference in both rebounding and blocks. Marcus Thornton recently put up 38 points on Mississippi State and has proven to be a lethal all-around scorer, ranking 2nd in the conference in scoring with 19.7 points per game and in the top 15 with a 43.6% field goal percentage. Chris Johnson has proven to be formidable inside as well, ranking 2nd in blocking. The main playmaker for USC is without a doubt Rivals.com First-Team All-SEC Devan Downey, who’s quickness and talented ball-handling is hard to keep from driving the basket. Downey ranks 2nd in the conference in scoring, but doesn’t take the best-advaised shots as he doesn’t rank in the top 15 field-goal percentages. Downey also takes care of the ball well, handing out 5.2 assists to just 2.8 turnovers, ranking 4th in that category.

Depth: Advantage – South Carolina: Although neither team is particularly strong in this area, USC regularly rotates 8 men and has 2 more backups while the Tigers rotate 8 men but have just 1 more usable backup.

Intangibles: Advantage – LSU: Both teams have some things going for them. While Dave Odom will be coaching in his final SEC Tournament that has seen Odom receive his fair share of success, the Tigers have lifted the Brady “weight” off of their shoulders and have been playing inspired basketball, winning 4 of their last 5. Butch Pierre has done a great job at reorganizing the Tigers’ rotation off the bench and creating more offense.

Bottom Line: This will be a game dominated by two or three players with a load of role-players mixed in. The outcome will likely be dictated by USC’s Holmes and LSU’s Randolph inside and USC’s Downey and LSU’s Thornton from the outside. Whichever team can keep the other’s main scorer out of the paint will win the game, although the Tigers will need to keep a handle on their turnovers also.

Prediction: LSU wins, 70-64: The Tigers’ Randolph will prove to be the difference-maker, scoring almost at will inside the paint while Downey will still manage to put up more than 20 points. A close game favors LSU, who leads the conference in free-throw shooting percentage.

3:15 PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #6: 14-15, 4-12) Auburn [#154] vs. (East #3: 25-6, 10-6) Vanderbilt [#10]

Offense: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores are one of the most potent offenses in the conference, averaging 80.4 points per game and leading the conference in three-point percentage at 40.2%. The Tigers rank near the bottom in almost every offensive category.

Defense: Advantage – Vanderbilt: Neither team is known for their defense, but the Tigers have been horrid. Auburn’s field-goal percentage defense is nearly 3% worse than any other SEC team’s, although Vanderbilt’s scoring defense is slightly worse.

Playmakers: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores have the likely SEC Player of the Year in Shan Foster and SEC Freshman of the Year candidate AJ Ogilvy. Foster leads the conference in scoring with 20.6 points per game and 9th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Ogilvy has proven to be a threat offensively as well, leading SEC freshman with 16.7 points per game and 3rd among SEC freshman with 6.8 rebounds per game. Auburn’s Quantez Robertson is one of the most underrated point guards, handing out 4.2 assists to just 1.8 turnovers per game, ranking 2nd in the conference in that category.

Depth: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores have recruited well, and it shows. The ‘Dores regularly rotate 10 men into play, with 1 more off the bench while Auburn rotates 8 with 1 off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores are currently ranked 17th in the nation and are a popular pick for the Sweet 16. Morale is low in Auburn, as the Tigers haven’t seen the postseason in quite some time.

Bottom Line: This game will be full of offense, as neither team plays much defense. An offensive game easily favors Vanderbilt, as the Commodores have been scoring nearly at will all season long. With Auburn’s severe lack of talent and depth, this game could get ugly.

Prediction: Vanderbilt wins, 94-75: At least 9 or 10 players will get on the scoreboard for Vanderbilt, as this game becomes a route early on. Because of a lesser need for him, Foster doesn’t have a remarkable game, scoring around 15 points.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #5: 16-15, 5-11) Alabama [#117] vs. (East #4: 21-10, 8-8) Florida [#65]

Offense: Advantage – Florida: The Gators are loaded with offensively-talented freshman, ranking 4th in the conference in scoring average and lead the conference in field-goal percentage. The Tide rank near the middle of the conference in all offensive categories.

Defense: Advantage – Alabama: These two teams are possibly the worst defensive teams in the conference, but the Tide have a slight edge in percentages and a sizeable lead in blocks/steals per game. Richard Hendrix probably gives this advantage to Alabama on his own.

Playmakers: Advantage – Alabama: Richard Hendrix, as you all know by now, is possibly my favorite SEC player. He’s practically unstoppable under the rim, even against arguably the nation’s best defender in MSU’s Jarvis Varnado. Hendrix ranks 4th in the conference in scoring, 1st in rebounding (the only SEC player to average a double-double), 3rd in field-goal percentage, and 5th in blocking. Hendrix is a beast, and possibly the best all-around player in the conference. ‘Bama’s Riley is also underestimated, ranking 2nd in the conference in three-point shooting, while Gee is an unpredictable but dynamic play-maker. Florida has their share of talent as well, as freshman Nick Calathes easily leads the conference in assists per game with 6.1, and ranks 3rd in assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s a scoring point, though, leading his team in scoring with 15.9 points per game. Speights can also dominate a game inside, ranking 4th in rebounding and 2nd in field-goal percentage.

Depth: Advantage – Alabama: While both teams are relatively deep, Florida relies more on its talented youth while the Tide have some more experienced players and cycle more men into the game. 9 Bama players regularly see playing time with 2 usable backups, while 9 Gators see common playing time but none are usable off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage – Florida: The Gators will be playing for their NCAA lives and are coached by possibly the SEC’s best coach, while the Tide are struggling to even reach the NIT and have fell short of already-low expectations.

Bottom Line: This is yet another game that will see very little defense and be controlled by offense. Alabama simply won’t have the offense to keep up with the potent Gators, although Hendrix will likely have a huge game against Speights inside. The game will be close, but Alabam’s free throw shooting will cost them the game.

Prediction: Florida wins, 80-72: The game will come down to the final minute, as Alabama will miss key free throws to hand Florida the game.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(East #6: 13-16, 4-12) Georgia [#152] vs. (West #3: 21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [#42]

Offense: Advantage – Ole Miss: The Bulldogs’ offense is the most anemic in the conference, scoring just 67.8 points per game. Conversely, the Rebels have proven to execute an efficient offense, ranking third in the conference in scoring, although the Rebs rank 9th in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Georgia – Both teams play decent defense, but the Bulldogs’ scoring defense gives them the edge, as they rank 4th in the conference with 67.2 points per outing. All of the remaining statistics are very similar.

Playmakers: Advantage – Ole Miss: Neither team is overloaded with talent, but the Rebels have a clear advantage with SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Chris Warren and vastly overlooked big-man Dwayne Curtis on the interior. Warren has tremendous speed but still has work to do on his decision-making skills, leading the team in scoring but shooting just 39.6% from the field and turning the ball over nearly 3 times a game. Curtis ranks 2nd in the conference with an impressive 9.3 rebounds per game and leads the SEC in field-goal percentage, shooting 64.6% on the season. For Georgia, Sundiata Gaines is the key to the team’s offense, putting up over 12 attempts per game, grabbing 6.3 rebounds per game, and ranking 6th in the conference with 4.2 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game. Gaines’ main drawback is free-throw shooting, as he hits just 57.3% of his shots from the charity stripe.

Depth: Advantage – Ole Miss: Both teams have some talent on the bench, but the Rebels have more, as both cycle in 10 men regularly with 1 legitimate backup.

Intangibles: Advantage – Ole Miss: The Rebels absolutely must win this game to reach the NCAA, and they know it. Felton has struggled with off-the-court issues, and the Rebels simply have more to play for.

Bottom Line: When it comes to crunch time, Georgia won’t have the offense to keep up with the Rebels. Curtis should have a monster game, scoring 15-20+ points and 10+ rebounds, as Bliss is not necessarily a threat defensively.

Prediction: Ole Miss wins, 76-67: This game shouldn’t be as close as the score looks, as the Rebels should take control in the second half as the Bulldogs lose any offensive momentum they may have created in the first.

2nd Round

Since the second round depends on who wins in the first, here is a breakdown of each squad who received a bye, both strengths and weaknesses.

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #1: 28-3, 14-2) Tennessee [#1] vs. (Winner of [E5] South Carolina vs. [W4] LSU)

Offense: The Vols have boasted a tremendously potent offense from the very beginning of the season, averaging a league-leading 82.5 points per game. Surprisingly, the Vols rank just 8th in field-goal perentage and 5th from behind the arc, but utilize great offensive rebounding (2nd) and turnover-forcing (1st) to attempt 236 more shots from the floor than their opponents. The squad also shares the ball remarkably well, averaging over 18 assists per game to lead the SEC in that category as well.

Defense: Although the common conception is that a great speed-based offense like Tennessee lacks on defense, this is very untrue for the Vols. The team’s scoring defense ranks a decent 6th, but the key is three-point defense as the team leads the conference quite comfortably in that category, with a 30.5% mark. Forced turnovers are the key to Tennessee’s high-intensity, high-pressure defense, which leads into easy buckets.

Playmakers: The Volunteers are very talented and well-balanced, as despite leading the league in scoring as a team no player averages more than 16 points per game. Chris Lofton, a preseason All-American selection, is that 16ppg scorer, although he manages those points on 11.9 attempts per game as opposed to percentages, as his shooting percentage from the floor doesn’t rank in the top 15 in the conference. Lofton does, however, lead the SEC in free-throw percentage shooting, hitting 84.2% of his attempts. Tyler Smith has claimed his mark as one of the best big-men in the conference, leading his team in rebounding and ranking 8th in the conference in shooting percentage. JuJuan Smith is extremely dynamic but sometimes out of control, though he shoots a respectable 45.2% from the floor. JuJuan also ranks 5th in the SEC in steals per game.

Depth: Tennessee is one of the deepest teams in the conference, with 11 players seeing consistent playing time and 1 other seeing some amount of time off the bench.

Intangibles: Everything is going right for one fo the nation’s top teams, with two or three potential All-SEC First Teamers and SEC Coach of the Year candidate. A Final Four seems a distcint possibility, as does bringing home the Southeastern Conference’s third-straight men’s basketball national title.

Prediction: The Vols have a great chance at winning the conference tournament and going on to an NCAA Tournament 1-seed.

3:15PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #2: 20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [#43] vs. (Winner of [W6] Auburn vs. [E3] Vanderbilt)

Offense: Arkansas is a defense-oriented team who likes to slow the ball down. The team’s scoring margin is mediocre at best, although the percentages are good as most of the team’s scoring comes from inside the paint. The team doesn’t share the ball exceptionally well, and does not shoot well from three as a whole.

Defense: The Razorbacks have been battling MSU for the top spot defensively all season, as the team is loaded with quality big-men. Arkansas ranks 3rd in scoring defense, field-goal percentage defense, and three-point defense as well as blocks per game.

Playmakers: Sonny Weems is the team’s shooting specialist, leading the squad in scoring with 14.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Reigning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly is the conference’s 3rd-most efficient three-point shooter at 40.1%, and Steven Hill ranks 4th in blocks per game. This team doesn’t have many stand-outs, as the effort is usually well-balanced.

Depth: Arkansas is also very deep, as 10 players see regular playing time but no others come off the bench.

Intangibles: The ‘Backs are another team looking to ensure their NCAA hopes, and a win against a very talented Vanderbilt team would do it. Arkansas has lost 5 of their last 8, however, and this will be Pelphrey’s first SEC Tournament. How will the seniors respond in their last SEC Tournament?

Prediction: The Razorbacks should be able to defeat the Commodores, as Vanderbilt hasn’t been able to hit their threes away from home. The ‘Backs would likely fall hard to the Volunteers, however.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #1: 21-9, 12-4) Mississippi State [#38] vs. (Winner of [W5] Alabama vs. [E4] Florida)

Offense: While MSU is widely known to be a very talented team defensively, the squad’s offensive presence has been lost in the shuffle. Although State’s scoring offense ranks just 6th, the team’s field-goal percentage ranks 3rd. The Bulldogs are not adept at three-point shooting, however, nor sharing the ball – ranking 9th and 8th in those categories, respectively. In SEC play, MSU leads the conference in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Well-known at this point, Mississippi State’s field-goal percentage defense ranks atop the SEC and 2nd in the country behind Georgetown, at 36.9%. Absolutely suffocating on defense, the team also ranks 2nd in three-point defense, 1st in scoring defense, and 1st in blocks per game (and also 2nd in the NCAA in that category, behind Connecticut). State’s length and athleticism makes every point scored against them difficult.

Playmakers: The Bulldogs have arguably the most talented starting 5 in the conference, with SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon leading the way. Charles Rhodes is a legitimate All-SEC First-Teamer, Jarvis Varnado leads the nation in blocks per game and is set to challenge Shaq’s all-time SEC blocks record as a sophomore, and both Stewart and Hansbrough are able to put up 20+ points on any given night. Gordon ranks 5th in the conference in scoring while Rhodes ranks 7th, while Varnado ranks 5th in rebounds and Rhodes ranks 6th. Rhodes is a very efficient shooter, even with face to the basket, ranking 6th in the conference in shooting percentage, while Gordon ranks 3rd in assists per game. Hansbrough also ranks in the top 10 in three-point percentage and 3-pointers made per game. This team is very well-balanced, with an offensive big-man, defensive big-man, penetrating guard, and two shooters.

Depth: The Bulldogs have lots of depth on the bench, with a regular rotation cycle of 10 players and 1 off the bench.

Intangibles: State has been on the brink of being ranked throughout the season, and have won 7 of their last 9. The ‘Dawgs seem to work well under the “underdog” mentality, and have the balance and depth to make a run in both postseason tournaments.

Prediction: State hasn’t lost a game to either of their potential second-round matchups, and have only dropped one game out of the total potential matchups in the semifinal round. State seems to be a good bet for the SEC Tournament finals, where a rematch with Tennessee should be an exciting game – although I’d pick the Vols to take that game, as UT won in Starkville in the teams’ previous matchup.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(West #2: 18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [#49] vs. (Winner of [E6] Georgia vs. [W3] Ole Miss)

Offense: Offense hasn’t been a specialty for the Wildcats, as the team ranks 10th in scoring offense for the season in the conference. The slow-paced offense shoots well, though, ranking 3rd in field-goal percentage and 2nd from behind the arc. The problem is rebounding, as the ‘Cats haven’t been able to take many shots from the floor and ranking last in turnover margin.

Defense: The Wildcat defense is a typical hard-nosed Kentucky defense, ranking 2nd in scoring defense allowed and field-goal percentage defense. What the team doesn’t do, however, is force turnovers very well, which when combined with poor ball-handling results in easy buckets for the opponent.

Playmakers: Three Wildcats score 16 points a game or more, although surprisingly only one of them has really captured the media’s attention. That player is SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson, who is no longer with the team after a fractured foot, and won’t be back until next season. Stevenson has handled the loss well, stepping up to record a couple of double-doubles in his absence. The other two top scorers are Crawford and Bradley, who are a couple of the more underestimated players in the league. Crawford ranks 6th in the conference in scoring and 10th in field-goal perecentage, while Bradley ranks 2nd in free-throw percentage.

Depth: Injuries have plagued the Wildcats, who now cycle just 8 men regularly and sub 3 others.

Intangibles: Survival is the key word here, as the Wildcats absolutely must win at least one game in the conference tournament to keep their NCAA hopes alive. The team’s resurgence has been impressive, and the squad seems to be handling the loss of Patterson quite well. Needless to say, the Wildcats have had an immense amount of success in their history in Atlanta.

Prediction: UK should be able to handle either Georgia or Ole Miss, although the Rebels could be a potential mismatch. Next up would likely be Mississippi State, who the Wildcats particularly do not match up well against.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

Next up will be a complete and utter breakdown of every team and their SEC Tournament matchups.

Saturday Games

(16-15, 5-11) Alabama [78] vs. (25-6, 10-6) #16 Vanderbilt [73]: This game will drop the Commodores a seed or two, as the ‘Dores have a less-than-stellar 6-6 record in road/neutral courts on the year and this being arguably the worst such loss. Vanderbilt simply couldn’t find any offense against a practically non-existent Alabama defense, shooting just 38.2% from the field. Riley came up huge for the Tide, scoring a game-high 26 points on 6-of-13 from long range and grabbing 10 boards for his second double-double of the season and Hendrix was actually outshined by Ogilvy and still put up his 16th double-double of the season with 12 points and 11 rebounds. Gee did was he does best – put up enough shots to score some points but not shoot particularly well, shooting 5-of-12 and 2-of-5 from long range for 16 points. Shan Foster came off of his 42-point blowup against Mississippi State by notching 21 in this loss, shooting 7-of-16. Ogilvy contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The postseason isn’t completely out of the question for the Tide now, if the squad could get hot and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament. That will have to go through Florida and Mississippi State, however.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a significant loss for Vanderbilt, who proved that down the stretch when it counts the most, the ‘Dores can’t win on the road – even against a lesser opponent. That will not be looked upon kindly by the selection committee, and Vandy needs to win at least a game in the SEC Tournament to counter that image. As for specifics, I’d say the Commodores fell from a 3 or 4 seed to a 5 or 6 seed with this loss.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 7-of-25 shooting from long range (28.0%)

(13-16, 4-12) Georgia [62] vs. (21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [76]: Another case of a weak defensive team suddenly holding their opponent to poor shooting, as the Rebels held Georgia to a 30.8% effort from the floor. This was a desperately-needed statement win for the Rebels, who are trying to claw their way into NCAA Tournament consideration. Now just two games under .500 in the conference, 21 wins overall, and another road win under their belt, the Rebels could very well be on the good side of the bubble. Five Rebels scored between 15 and 10 points, led by Warren and Curtis with 15. Parnell had an unusually successful game as well, notching 13 points and a team-high 7 rebounds. Woodbury led the Bulldogs with 18 points as Gaines did more harm than good by putting up 21 attempts and only hitting 5, although he did claim 7 rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little, as the postseason is out of the question for the Bulldogs without a conference tournament title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are suddenly back in the thick of the NCAA discussion after three-straight wins, including one over likely NCAA-bound Arkansas and a road win. A win in the conference tournament would likely make the Rebs a lock for the Big Dance.
Stat of the Game: Gaines’ 5-of-21 shooting (23.8%)

(21-9, 12-4) #25 Mississippi State [84] vs. (13-17, 6-10) LSU [75]: This game was closer than the Bulldogs would have liked, as the Tigers led by 1 at halftime. The ‘Dawgs did what they have been doing during the conference season, though, and found a way to win. This was also a stereotypical MSU game in terms of defense and blocking, as State did both well – swatting 10 shots as a team to capture the SEC’s single-season block record. In his last home game, senior Charles Rhodes scored a team-high 27 points and 10 rebounds as he’s been on a serious roll as of late, recording his ninth double-double of the season and second in a row. For the second game in a row, Gordon joined Rhodes in the 20+ points collumn with 23 points and 9 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, knocked away 7 shots. Marcus Thornton tried to go Shan Foster on State again, hitting three consecutive threes late in the game to pull within four, but then started missing. He finished with a tie for career-high 38 points on 6-of-12 shooting from three while Randolph notched 14 points and 10 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season.
Impact [Miss. State]: Avoiding the let-down loss was the main concern for State at this point, as a game or two in the SEC Tournament could result in a 5-seed or better.
Impact [LSU]: With the loss, the West’s four-seed is where the Tigers will fall, which is substantially better than they seemed to have been heading for just a couple of weeks ago. No postseason is possible without winning the SEC Tournament title.
Stat of the Game: The league’s three top shot-blockers in action: Varnado (7), Johnson (1), and Randolph (1)

(20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [77] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [64]: This game appeared to be headed towards the blowout I expected at halftime, where the Razorbacks held a 45-26 lead. But some backups got minutes and the lead shrunk a bit, but this was a complete mismatch from the beginning. Arkansas destroyed the Tigers on the boards, shot remarkably well from all spots on the floor, and the ‘Backs big-men had their way inside. Beverly shot to his potential for the third-straight game, hitting 9-of-11 from the floor and 6-of-6 from behind the arc for 27 points along with grabbing 8 rebounds, while Darian Townes hit 6-of-7 shots to score 12 points and claimed a season-high 14 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Frank Tolbert was Auburn’s main offensive weapon, as he sank 7-of-12 shots, grabbed 4 rebounds, and handed out 5 assists but turned the ball over 5 times for 17 points.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks might have secured an at-large NCAA bid with this win, guaranteeing themselves a + .500 SEC record. The squad’s performance in the SEC Tournament will determine the seed, which could be as low as a 10 or 9, or as high as a 7 or 8.
Impact [Auburn]: Time to get the hands hot, because winning the conference tournament is the Tigers’ only shot at the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ big-men hitting 14-of-22 (63.6%) shots total

Sunday Games

(18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [75] vs. (21-10, 8-8) Florida [70]: In this crucial battle-of-the-bubble game, the Wildcats held onto their lead despite a late charge by the Gators. Surprisingly, Florida heavily outrebounded Kentucky, but succombed to their defensive prowess and showed none of their own as the ‘Cats shot very well from the floor. Kentucky’s lack of depth was apparent, as only six Wildcats scored, as Stevenson led the Blue in scoring…stepping up nicely in the abscense of Patterson. Stevenson put up 18 points on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting effort and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the campaign, needless to mention blocking 5 shots. Crawford had an off-day shooting-wise, hitting just 7-of-17 shots and 2-of-7 from three, and Bradley handed out 7 assists but turned the ball over 4 times. Speights is becoming a star for Florida, with another 20-point outing on 8-of-11 shooting and 8 rebounds, and Calathes continues to be reliable with 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting and 6 assists to just 2 turnovers. The Gators aren’t terribly deep, but are very, very talented.
Impact [Kentucky]: This is a remarkable situation, really. As of now, there simply can’t be an informed observer of the sport that would say Kentucky isn’t an NCAA-quality team. But with a questionable RPI and two terrible losses (three if you count the 40+ embarassment to Vanderbilt), will 12 SEC wins but just 18 overall wins be enough? My guess is yes, but a win against either Ole Miss or Georgia would solidify their stake.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are about on the same spot on the bubble as Kentucky is at this point. The RPI is certainly not favorable and the strength of schedule is miserable, but Florida managed to go .500 in a power conference and win 21 games. I’d say the Gators are in a slightly worse position than the Wildcats, as at least one win the SEC Tournament will be necessary for NCAA inclusion.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 28-of-48 shooting (58.3%)

(28-3, 14-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [56]: The story of this blowout is how close the game was at halftime. At the midpoint, the Vols were nursing a 38-37 lead. From that point on, Tennessee outscored the Gamecocks 51-19 the rest of the way, and finishing up outrebounding their opponents by 18. Lofton has gotten in touch with his talent recently, scoring 28 points in this win on 10-of-16 shooting and 6-of-10 from long range to go along with 4 steals. JuJuan Smith was the only other Vol scoring in double digits in this well-balanced Volunteer assault with 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting and 9 rebounds. Holmes has truly stepped up for South Carolina in the past six games, as he’s scored in double digits in five of those and posted double-doubles in three of them. In this contest, Holmes recorded 15 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey had a tough day shooting 1-of-9 put also dishing out 9 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols remain an obvious pick for a #1 seed, and should remain that way as long as they reach the finals of the SEC Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: The postseason is an impossibilty unless the Gamecocks manage to win the SEC Tournament – which I wouldn’t completely rule out, as Odom has a history of success in it.

Saturday Odds…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

(15-15, 4-11) Alabama [#134] vs. (25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#7]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – Although the Commodores haven’t been especially efficient on the road, Alabama doesn’t have the depth to win this game.
—Keys: How will Foster react to his monster game against MSU? Can Ogilvy even come close to containing Hendrix? Hendrix needs touches for UA, and Vanderbilt needs to stay accurate from three.

(13-15, 4-11) Georgia [#145] vs. (20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [#42]
Spread: Even
Pick: Georgia – The Rebels have yet to win a conference road game, and this will be Gaines’ last home game.
—Keys: Look for Gaines to have a huge game. The Rebels need motivation for themselves, as this is a must-win for their NCAA hopes.

(20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [#37] vs. (13-16, 6-9) LSU [#160]
Spread: Miss. State by 10.5
Pick: Mississippi State – This is a bad matchup for LSU, as the Tigers have very little offense and even less depth. Rhodes should also come up big for the Bulldogs, as this will be his last regular-season home game.
Keys: Keep an eye on Rhodes, and even Gordon if he knows he’s leaving to the NBA. A loss today would drop State significantly in the NCAA seeding process.

(19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [#40] vs. (14-14, 4-11) Auburn [#155]
Spread: Arkansas by 13.5
Pick: Arkansas – This should get ugly. Not only is this a very severe mismatch for the Tigers, but an enormous amount of Razorbacks will be playing in their last regular-season home game and for a NCAA bid.
Keys: Auburn will have to shoot lights-out to even stay in this game. An absolute must-win for the Razorbacks to make the NCAA Tournament.

Wednesday games…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

With the last set of regular-season games coming up, posts will soon begin focus on postseason play.

(13-16, 5-10) South Carolina [63] vs. (17-11, 11-4) Kentucky [71]: Kentucky’s lack of depth again became apparent, and yet the team won another road game. Without Patterson, rebounding wasn’t a strength (the teams tied) for the Wildcats, but the squad’s shooting was phenomenal. Crawford brought down a season-high 35 points on 10-of-19 shooting, while Bradley scored 20 points on 6-of-11 shooting. The team’s two remaining big-men, Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson, took a combined 5 attempts from the floor – making it increasingly obvious Kentucky has abandoned any attempts at running some offense through the post. That will work as long as you’re playing against a guard-oriented team like USC and your own guards are shooting over 50%, but I suspect the team will fold against a bigger, more substantial team. Downey took much less responsibility than usual, shooting only 9 times, while Fredrick led the Gamecocks with 19 points. Holmes, who has really stepped up in SEC play, recorded his third double-double with 16 points and a game-high 10 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks won’t be seeing the postseason without a miracle run in the SEC Tournament.
Impact [Kentucky]: With their 11th SEC win but just 17 wins overall, the Wildcats still seem like a wild-card for the NCAA Tournament. Florida at home is an absolute must-win, and a game in the SEC Tournament would certainly help. Lose in the next two games, and the ‘Cats will be headed for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 56.4% shooting

(14-14, 4-11) Auburn [54] vs. (13-15, 4-11) Georgia [59]: While this would have been a big road win for Felton’s squad earlier in the year, it was a non-factor at this point in the season. As most teams do against the Tigers, Georgia rebounded well and turned the ball over too much. Auburn’s sudden lack of shooting prowess was the story of the game, as the team put up an entirely unneccessary 31 threes and only hit 9 of them. Sophomore Albert Jackson suddenly stepped up for the Bulldogs, scoring a season-high 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds. Gaines didn’t have a particularly impressive game, shooting just 2-of-8 for 11 points. Tolbert was again the Tigers’ lead scorer, but just with 12 points on 3-of-10 shooting. Prowell contributed 11 points and 7 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers should be looking towards next season at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: The Bulldogs are in the same boat as the Tigers.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 19.4% three-point shooting

(13-16, 6-9) LSU [80] vs. (15-15, 4-11) Alabama [74]: This game was very stereotypical for both teams, as Hendrix was a load inside for the Tide but wasn’t able to win the game by himself and LSU’s depth problems led to two 20+ scorers. Alabama dominated the rebounding collumn, while the Tigers shared the ball well and blocked an impressive 14 shots. Anthony Randolph led all scorers with a season-high 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting and a perfect 9-of-9 from the charity stripe. Marcus Thornton wasn’t far behind with 27 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three, while Chris Johnson neared a triple-double with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 blocks – his fourth double-double of the season and third in the past four games. The rest of the LSU team totalled 13 points. Hendrix notched his 15th double-double of the season with 16 points and 13 rebounds, while Jemison was a nice complement with 14 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: The Tigers have won four games in a row and suddenly placed themselves two games out of last place in the division and are competing for the three seed heading into the SEC Tournament. Unfortunately, it will be too little too late without a SEC Tournament title.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide continue to be tied with Auburn and Georgia for the title of the conference’s worst team.
Stat of the Game: Randolph/Thornton taking 64.7% of LSU’s shot attempts

(25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [86] vs. (20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [85]: This was one of the wildest games of the season. The Bulldogs seemed to control the entire game, leading almost all of it, but the immensely talented Shan Foster suddenly caught fire from three after missing six-straight to hit nine in a row, including one to send the game to overtime and another to win the game. The Commodores finish the season undefeated at home in a thriller, as Foster scored the second-most points in Vandy history: 42. Foster finished 16-of-25 from the field and 9-of-15 from three, needless to mention his five rebounds. His unbelievable display of leadership and shooting prowess against the nation’s second-ranked defense almost certainly has guaranteed him SEC Player of the Year, despite his rival Jamont Gordon scoring 24 points and 8 rebounds. Senior Charles Rhodes put up 22 points and 14 rebounds for his 8th double-double of the season for the Bulldogs, but none of this was enough to stop Foster from hitting contested threes to win the game. MSU had a couple of opportunities in both regulation and overtime to ice the game from the free throw line, but continuously hit one out of two to allow Foster to keep raining threes. My question would be…if he’s hit 6 in a row and you’re up by four in the final minute, wouldn’t you start fouling?
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a huge win for Vanderbilt, as a 3-seed remains possible. However, a 3-seed in the SEC Tournament may still be waiting unless Kentucky stumbles on Saturday.
Impact [Mississippi State]: The Bulldogs desperately needed the signiture win to improve their seeding. With the emotional overtime loss, the ‘Dawgs now face an LSU team on a 4-game win-streak at home with the SEC Tournament to follow. If there was a definition of a trap-game, this would be it.
Stat of the Game: What else? 42 points, 9-of-15 from three. State’s 53.6% free throw effort could be included, however.

(21-9, 8-7) Florida [86] vs. (27-3, 13-2) #4 Tennessee [89]: The Gators seemed to have solid control of this game even into the second half, leading by at least 13, but the Vols buckled down and went on a run to force a close win late. Most surprising was Tennessee’s lack of defense, allowing the Gators to shoot 59.6% on the game. Both teams posted two players with more than 20 points, as JuJuan Smith and Chris Lofton put up 23 and 21 points respectively for the Vols. The two shot a combined 8-of-15 from three and 15-of-24 from the field. Calathes led the Gators with 24 points but an even more impressive 9 assists, while Speights shot a perfect 8-of-8 for 21 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: Dropping a close home game that would have sealed an NCAA bid is a heart-breaker for the Gators, as a trip to Lexington is next. That game could very well be a must-win for Florida’s NCAA chances.
Impact [Tennessee]: With the tough road win, the Vols remain a solid pick for a #1 seed, depending on the outcome of the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: The two teams’ combined 55.5% shooting efforts

Tuesday game, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 136-34 (80.0%)
Vs. Spread: 62-56 (52.5%)
Overall (SEC): 43-16 (72.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 29-29 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Tuesday Game

(20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [81] vs. (19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [72]: This was a case of those not-as-close-as-they-look games, as the Rebels held a firm grasp on the game from very early on until the Razrbacks made a late charge. Arkansas’ road woes continued against the Rebels, as the ‘Backs’ defense was almost non-existent – Ole Miss shot 50.9% from the field. Despite Arkansas’ physical team makeup, the Rebels did what they have done very well all year: rebound, outrebounding their opponents 36-29. The Rebels were ultimately too quick and athletic for Arkansas to keep up with on the road. As per my keys, Curtis was indeed able to pull more than his own weight inside against Arkansas’ big men, scoring 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds for his unbelievable 15th double-double of the season. Curtis is easily one of the most overlooked inside men in the conference. Huertas also shot well, hitting 3-of-6 shots from long range and dishing out 5 assists. For Arkansas, Beverly finally found his shot just as Weems lost his. Beverly shot 7-of-13 and 3-of-8 from three for 19 points while Weems (who has scored at least 20 points in 7 of the last 13 games) managed just 5 points on 2-of-11 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This win certainly keeps the Rebels’ NCAA hopes alive, although the team will likely need to win at Georgia and at least a game in the SEC Tournament. The RPI (42nd) is respectable, but the their last 10 games (4-6) is less so.
Impact [Arkansas]: This dealt a huge blow to the Razorbacks, who suddenly fall from probably NCAA pick to the wrong side of the bubble. Luckily, Auburn at home is next, but Arkansas’ 5-9 Road/Nuetral record is certainly not favorable. One win the SEC Tournament could put them in, however.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss shooting 20.4% better from three

Wednesday Odds

(13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [#139] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [#55]
Spread: South Carolina by 1
Pick: South Carolina – Before the loss of Patterson, I would have picked Kentucky. However, the Wildcats now seemingly have noone to keep Downey from the lane.
—Keys: Obviously, can Kentucky establish inside presence with just Stevenson, and keep Downey our of the lane? Will South Carolina regain their composure from behind the 3-point arc. With the NCAA on the line, will the Wildcats choke?

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [#143] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [#156]
Spread: Auburn by 2
Pick: Auburn – The Tigers have the firepower to put up some points, and the Bulldogs don’t have the defense to stop them.
—Keys: Will Humphrey or someone else be able to complement Gaines for Georgia, and how will the Tigers try and stop Gaines?

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [#163] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [#122]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU – The Tigers have won three in a row over better competition, and Alabama has dropped 3 of their last 4.
—Keys: LSU’s defense is actually pretty solid, and the Alabama guards will need to be able to bring down whatever points they are able to. Look for the matchup of Johnson and Randolph’s defense against Hendrix’s offense.

(24-5, 9-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (20-8, 11-3) #25 Mississippi State [#38]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 3.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Commodores are undefeated at home, although this could be a mismatch for Vanderbilt. The game should be a competitive one, as the ‘Dores’ offense is paired up against the Dawgs’ defense.
—Keys: Will Varnado be able to silence Ogilvy inside? MSU will need to minimize turnovers if they want to have a chance, and Commodores will need to make shots against the nation’s second-ranked defense.

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [#60] vs. (26-3, 12-2) #4 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 1.5
Pick: Tennessee – The Vols seem unphased by road play, and the Gators are still struggling. With the Gators’ youth, look for them to give up a big number of turnovers against Tennessee’s press defense.
—Turnovers will be key – Florida will need to keep them in check. With Florida’s lack of defense of any type, Tennessee’s efficient offense could make this a blowout.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 135-34 (79.9%)
Vs. Spread: 61-56 (52.1%)
Overall (SEC): 42-16 (72.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 28-29 (49.1%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Saturday Games

(19-9, 8-6) Arkansas [78] vs. (24-5, 9-5) #18 Vanderbilt [73]: This was a very surprising game from a statistical point of view. To begin, the home team usually forces their own tempo, and this was clearly an uncomfortably up-tempo game for the Razorbacks. Secondly, Vanderbilt came into BWA as one of the conference’s best-shooting (if not the best) teams, and the ‘Backs outshot Vanderbilt by 15.0%. However, one would presume Arkansas’ big-man superiority would lead to a rebounding advantage, but it was the Commodores who won the rebounding advantage 29-24. Ultimately, Vanderbilt’s lack of defense proved the difference in the game. Weems continues to impress in SEC play, shooting 3-of-5 from three-point range for 20 points while Beverly suddenly caught fire and shot 5-of-7 from behind the arc and 6-of-10 overall to score 17. Ervin also had a nice game, handing out 7 assists and only turning the ball over once. Vanderbilt’s scoring was lop-sided, as Foster led the team with 22 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three and freshman Ogilvy upped his SEC Freshman of the Year candicacy by recording 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks. However, only one other Vandy player scored over 10 and only a few others managed to get on the board.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win over a ranked team provided a massive boost to the Razorbacks’ NCAA chances, but at least one more win will probably be needed to ensure inclusion.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It’s all about seeding at this point, although the Commodores will likely finish 3rd in the Eastern Division and miss the SEC Tournament’s first-round bye.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 58.3% shooting and 56.2% effort from three

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [63] vs. (13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [69]: The Gamecocks surprised the Tigers on the road by holding the solid-shooting squad to just 63 points. While both teams rely heavily on the three-pointer, neither shot well from that distance and South Carolina had the advantage getting inside with Downey. Downey led all scorers with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting (only two of those attempts from three-point range) while Holmes shot 8-of-10 for 18 points and 7 rebounds. Tolbert led the Tigers with 20 points while Prowell recorded his second double-double of the season with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers have long since been out of the postseason question, so this game had very little impact overall on the divisions’ bottom-dwellers.
Impact [South Carolina]: Odom has a history of getting hot in the SEC Tournament, and a road win could give Gamecock fans a small glint of hope for that to happen again.
Stat of the Game: Two of the SEC’s better three-point shooting teams combining for 8-of-39 (20.5%) shooting from three

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [59] vs. (20-8, 11-3) Mississippi State [68]: While this was a sub-ten-point game, the Bulldogs dominated the pace and outcome of this game from the very beginning. MSU remains the nation’s second-ranked defense, and it showed as the Gators usually-potent offense shot just 36.1% from the floor and 28.0% from three. MSU’s ball-handling was surprisingly good considering their unremarkable history of turning the ball over, and none of the Florida guards could find anything against State’s defense, missing several open layups. Hansbrough was the rarity for the Bulldogs to lead the team, scoring 20 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three while Rhodes put up 15 points and 8 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, swatted 7 shots and scored 11 points/rebounds apeice for his fifth double-double of the season. SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon suffered a terrible outing, shooting just 1-of-8 for 4 points asnd 5 rebounds. Speights was the bright spot for Florida, as he seemingly had his way inside, scoring 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds for the sixth double-double of his season. Calathes shot decently for 18 points, but uncharacteristically turned the ball over 3 times.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators desperately needed this win to bolster their NCAA resume, as #1 Tennessee comes to town next and then Florida will have to travel to Kentucky. One of those games must be a win, and another win in the SEC Tournament may be needed to get on the good side of the bubble.
Impact [Mississippi State]: MSU now clinches sole possession of the Western Division, and is a game back from the overall title with two games remaining. This was a tremendous seed-booster for the NCAA-bound Bulldogs, and if State can take care of Vanderbilt on the road and LSU at home, a 5 seed or better could be the outcome, depending on the squad’s performance in the conference tournament.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 7-of-25 shooting from three (28.0%)

(19-9, 5-9) Ole Miss [91] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [88]: This was a must-win for the Rebels, and the team barely pulled it out in the end to maintain their dim NCAA hopes. With both teams’ abscense of defense, the two teams shot very well from the field – the main reason the game came down to the wire. The Rebels’ main stars Warren and Curtis scored 25 and 24 points, respectively, while Warren also pitched in 8 assists and Curtis grabbed 9 rebounds. Huertas was also strong, scoring 18 points on 4-of-8 shooting from long range and claiming 9 boards. The Rebels did well keeping the ball out of the hands of Hendrix, as he was only allowed to attempt 8 shots for 10 points and 5 rebounds. Riley led the Tide with 20 points, but shot just 6-of-16 from the floor because of the squad’s lack of shooting depth. Jemison had his second big game in a row, scoring 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels will nearly lose NCAA contention with a loss to Arkansas at home on Tuesday. Both that game at the next at Georgia are must wins, if Kennedy hopes to avoid the NIT for the second-straight season.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are simply hoping to avoid the title of being the Western Division’s worst team, as the postseason seems out of the question

Sunday Games

(26-3, 12-2) #1 Tennessee [63] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [60]: The Wildcats actually led a decent amount of this game and Gillespie did an outstanding job at compensating for the loss of Patterson by slashing the ball to the basket with his guards Auburn-style. With that said, careless ball-handling and the Tennessee press handed the victory to the Vols, although the ‘Cats also outshot and outrebounded the top-ranked team. No surprise in the scoring for Tennessee, as only two players scored more than 10 points but eight players scored at least three. Tyler Smith led the charge with 15 on 6-of-14 shooting and five rebounds, and preseason All-American Chris Lofton scored 14 but turned the ball over 3 times. Bradley led the Wildcats with 17 points, but missed 2 out of 5 free throws (a lot for the SEC’s leading free-throw shooting). Perry Stevenson scored 13 points and claimed a career-high 14 rebounds for his second double-double of the season.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols are now only realistically battling with MSU for the SEC overall championship, and seem to be in a good spot – up by one game with only two remaining. If Tennessee can win their final two (at Florida, South Carolina at home) and reach the SEC Tournament final, a #1 seed should be a given.
Impact [Kentucky]: With the loss, Kentucky will likely need to win both of their remaining regular-season games (at South Carolina, Florida at home) and possibly even one more in the SEC Tournament to sufficiently impress the NCAA Selection Committee.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky (SEC’s best FT-shooting team) shooting 63.2% from the charity stripe

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [71] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [64]: This was not a pretty game, but it was exciting. Lots of big plays and energy for both squads, but also a lot of careless turnovers and poor decisions. Of note, Sundiata Gaines was thrown out of the game after receiving an inadvertent elbow in the lip from Georgia’s Bliss (I believe) on a floor-ball-scrambling and reacting with a clearly intended punch to the face. It was absolutely uncalled for, and I’m beginning to question Felton’s ability to bring in quality people to the program, despite his obviously good-natured personality. He’s constantly had problems on and off the court with his players, and it sure seems as if he simply doesn’t have what it takes to recruit good people. Back to the game – Marcus Thornton brought down a game-high 36 points (and even more surprisingly, it wasn’t a season high) on 12-of-21 shooting and a 5-of-7 effort from three along with 10 rebounds to notch his fourth double-double of the season and first since SEC play began. Randolph contributed 19 and Johnson tied a season-high 15 rebounds. Billy Humphrey rebounded from a stretch of 6 games in which he was held to under 10 points in five of them to score 26 points on 5-of-8 shooting from behind the arc for the Bulldogs.
Impact [LSU]: Very little. The postseason is out of the question, seeding in the SEC Tournament is about all that can improve at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little. The postseason is also out of the question for the Bulldogs.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 18 turnovers

Wednesday games…

Overall: 135-34 (79.9%)
Vs. Spread: 61-56 (52.1%)
Overall (SEC): 42-16 (72.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 28-29 (49.1%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Unfortunately, I didn’t have the time to recap all of the games before the next set. However, here is a small breakdown of each game.

Alabama defeated Arkansas at home by three, dealing the Razorbacks a major blow in their NCAA hopes. Vanderbilt at home will be a must-win for Arkansas now, as the team falls to 18-9 and 7-6 on the season. Jemison had a break-out game for Alabama, scoring a season-high 19 points.

Florida dominated the Georgia Bulldogs at home as I expected, with the Gators keeping their NCAA hopes alive. Calathes led Florida with 22 points.

After leading by as much as 24-4, the Rebels came back on Kentucky and made it a ballgame but ultimately fell 58-54 on the road in Lexington. As Ole Miss is now guaranteed a losing SEC record, they can ill-afford another SEC loss if they hope to reach the NCAA’s. The Wildcats are now desperately trying to win every game they can to reach the Big Dance, and also can barely afford to lose another conference contest.

Mississippi State had more trouble with the Auburn Tigers at home than they did on the road, but still won by 12 and thus solidified at least a share of the SEC’s Western Division title with the Arkansas loss. State has been hot ever since their 5-5 start, and now the Bulldogs seem to be the SEC’s third NCAA lock after Vandy and Tennessee.

The LSU Tigers continue their surprisingly improved play by pulling a big upset of South Carolina on the road by 62-55, as neither team will likely see the postseason.

Pre-SEC Tournament Breakdown

Here’s a recap of where each team stands a little over two weeks away from the SEC Tournament. This includes likely seeds in the conference tournament and postseason play, remaining games, etc.

Alabama (14-13, 3-9)

The Tide have played good teams close this season: 4-point loss at Arkansas, 10-point loss to #5 Georgetown, 7-point loss to #1 Tennessee, 7-point loss at Mississippi State. However, the lack of talented depth – particularly interior – has limited the numbers under the win collumn. The team’s defense is miserable, the worst in the SEC in fact, and the offense holds its own. Richard Hendrix is obviously the MVP here, as he is possibly the best overall player in the SEC and by far one of the most overlooked college players in the nation. Gee is a distant second, as he’ll need to work on his decision-making to be a serious threat in his senior season next year. Hendrix is certainly a threat to go pro – but without the press coverage of a good season, he should come back and set up Alabama with a potential to win the conference outright next season, as some talented recruits filter into the program, Steele becomes available for his senior season more healthy than he’s been in a while, and the squad loses nearly noone.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #5 seed
Round One: vs. Florida (W4)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Arkansas (18-8, 7-5)

The Razorbacks have played well, but look to fall just short of their predicted finish of first in the Western division, mainly due to missed opportunites for wins at Georgia (L, 69-82) and versus South Carolina (L, 66-70). The team excels in rebounding and defense, its game-plan very similar to Mississippi State. Ironically, both Weems and Beverly lead the team in scoring threats, although Beverly’s shooting has dropped off significantly from last year and his rebounding has drastically improved, despite the squad’s reliance on its big-men. None of the Arkansas players will likely make any NBA draft, although the team loses Ervin, Hill, Hunter, Thomas, Townes, and Weems next year as 2008-2009 looks to be a gigantic rebuilding year for the ‘Backs.

Remaining Schedule (Prediction)

@ Alabama (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Ole Miss (W)
vs. Auburn (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

21-9, 10-6

SEC Tournament

West #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. LSU (W6) or Vanderbilt (E3)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 8 seed

Auburn (14-11, 4-8)

The Tigers have lots of potential to score, but only from their shooters – not their offensive plays. The team excels at racing and cutting to the basket, but are very vertically challenged with only one player on the roaster taller than their coach, Jeff Lebo. Free-throw shooting and field-goal percentage are the squad’s specialties, but nearly nothing else is – and rebounding is certainly the team’s biggest weakness. Depth has also been an enormous issue, as rarely do more than six Tigers score in a given game. Prowell leads the team in scoring, although Barber is arguably the team’s most important player with 13.8ppg, 6.9rpg and shooting 72.0% from the field. Quantez Robertson is one of the most under-appreciated point guards in the conference, as he sports 4.3 assists to 1.8 turnovers per game. None of the players have a shot at going pro, and the team loses Archie, Prowell, and Tolbert for next season…a significant scoring loss for a team that can’t afford to lose much depth.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Mississippi State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (L)
@ Arkansas (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-14, 5-11

SEC Tournament

West #4 seed
Round One: vs. South Carolina (E5)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Florida (20-7, 7-5)

The very, very young Gators started off hot and looked to compete for the conference title, standing at 18-3 and 5-1 at one point. Since then, the freshmen have – like Ole Miss’ – hit the “brick wall”, as the squad has gone 2-4. The team is immensely talented (the nation’s top recruiting class for last year) but still very young and look to improve vastly next season. Defense has been shoddy at best, but the offense has been dynamic and nearly unstoppable. Calathes has been the catalyst for the team all season, as he leads the team with 15.3ppg, and also ranks among the top of the conference with 6.1 assists per game. Speights has proven to be a formidable inside prescense, putting up 7.8rpg and shooting 61.6% from the field. Losing noone for next year, this team looks to challenge for the overall SEC title next season and could very well end up as a Final Four threat before its all said and done.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Georgia (W)
vs. Mississippi St. (W)
vs. #1 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

22-9, 9-7

SEC Tournament

East #4 seed
Round One: vs. Alabama (W5)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 9 seed

Georgia (12-13, 3-9)

The Bulldogs, much like Alabama, have competed in nearly every game and played good fundamentals, but simply haven’t pulled through in the clutch. Close games include: 8-point loss at Gonzaga, a win over Arkansas, 5-point loss to Kentucky, 8-point loss to #18 Vanderbilt, 3-point loss to #1 Tennessee, and a 6-point loss at Kentucky. The team rebounds and defends well, but can’t get anything going offensively. Sundiata Gaines has proven to be a dominating player, shooting incredibly well and even averaging 6.6rpg. Gaines has a great potential to make the conference’s first-team, and certainly the second-team. With that said, when your playmaking guard is leading your team in rebounding, someone’s missing some assignments. Gaines will probably test the NBA waters but certainly won’t make the cut, and the team loses Gaines and Bliss headed into next season. Losing Gaines will likely mean yet another season at the bottom of the SEC East.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Ole Miss (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

East #6 seed
Round One: vs. Ole Miss (W3)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Kentucky (15-10, 9-3)

The two most interesting storylines heading into the postseason will be Kentucky and Ole Miss – direct opposites of each other. As the Rebels have a decent overall wins record and RPI, their SEC record is miserable. Conversely, the Wildcats have won just 15 games and have home losses to both Gardner-Webb (L, 68-84) and San Diego (L, 72-81) but have amassed an impressive 9-3 conference record with wins over #18 Vanderbilt, #1 Tennessee, and Arkansas. The team has taken advantage of a solid defensive prescense, decent rebounding, and the conference’s best free-throw shooting to edge into second place in the conference and within a game and a half of Tennessee for the lead. The interesting issue for Kentucky is that the NCAA selection committee will likely either have to leave out a 10+ win SEC team for the first time ever or hand out an at-large to a 18 or 19-win team. Crawford, Patterson, and Bradley each contribute more than 15 points for a Wildcat team that has struggled with talented depth. Patterson will battle Calathes and Ogilvy for SEC Freshman of the Year, averaging 16.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Bradley leads the league in free-throw shooting with an 85.6% mark from the charity stripe. The only likely NBA-bound player will be Patterson, although he would be advised not to leave this season. The Wildcats will take a major blow in the points column by losing both Bradley and Crawford next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

18-11, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Georgia (E6) or Ole Miss (W3)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 10 seed

LSU (10-16, 3-9)

Surprisingly competitve following coach Brady’s firing, the Tigers have since upset Florida, handed a 20-point demolition to Ole Miss, played #1 Tennessee to 2 points, and played Kentucky to 4. However, the big picture is an ugly one for the Tigers, as they trail the entire conference in an enormous amount of statistical categories. Rebounding isn’t good, defense is mediocre, and offense is horrendous. About the only plus for LSU is ranking [a distant] second in the league in blocks per game. Marcus Thornton is the playmaker for the Tigers, as he averages 18.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Anthony Randolph is a quality big-man down low, although he hasn’t fared particularly well against the SEC’s other great big-men, with 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Both players would be legitimate NBA material if on another team, but the obscene lack of depth and the absence of a point-guard for LSU will limit that until the team steps back onto the national scene. As a positive, the team loses noone of importance heading into next season, and should have every opportunity to improve upon this year’s dismal record.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Mississippi State (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

11-19, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #6 seed
Round One: vs. Vanderbilt (E3)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Mississippi State (18-8, 9-3)

With a two-game lead in the West with four games remaining, the Bulldogs have a strangle-hold on the division. Also just a game and a half back overall, the overall title is still a distant hope. None of this would have been predicted earlier in the season when MSU stood at 5-5 on the season with losses to both Miamis and Southern Illinois among others. No terrible losses, but games a Western-Division champion should win. State has improved drastically since that point, with the only noticeable losses being a 20-point blowout at Arkansas and a loss at rival Ole Miss. The team has peeled off this impressive stretch by ranking 2nd in the nation in both field-goal percentage defense and blocking, while sophomore defensive expert Jarvis Varnado leads the entire nation in blocks per game. Varnado has totalled more blocks personally than at least 7 SEC teams as a whole, and has long since surpassed MSU’s all-time single-season block record. Rebounding is also a specialty for the Bulldogs, although ball-handling and free-throw shooting could prove to be fatal shortcomings in the NCAA Tournament. State’s Gordon will challenge Vandy’s Shan Foster for SEC Player of the Year, as the all-america candidate is leading the team with 17.5ppg, 6.3rpg (as a point guard) and 4.7 assists per game – although 4.0 turnovers per game is far from desirable. Rhodes has stepped up his play lately to put himself into the argument for All-SEC First Team. Rhodes will likely throw his name into the draft as a senior, and if Gordon will follow Rhodes into the NBA will perhaps become the SEC’s biggest question this off-season. If not, Gordon could lead the Bulldogs back to the top of the West and to the NCAA’s.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #18 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 11-5

SEC Tournament

West #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Alabama (W5) or Florida (E4)
Semifinals: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 6 seed

Ole Miss (18-8, 4-8)

The Rebels have officially become “this year’s Clemson” after throwing the SEC on its heels by starting 13-0 but since have posted a 4-8 record, including being swept by Auburn and posting a 20-point loss at the SEC’s worst team, LSU. After appearing to be a certain NCAA lock, the team is now teetering on the wrong side of the bubble as the best possible outcome will be a sub-.500 SEC record. The team’s offensive efficiency has been outstanding for most of the season until recently, with freshman Chris Warren leading the charge. Defensively, the Rebels are non-existent although rebounding (behind Curtis) has become a trademark. Warren leads the Rebs both in scoring but in leadership – which has proved a major problem, as he is only a freshman. Curtis follows Hendrix as the conference’s best big-man, nearly averaging a double-double at 14.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. The team is very young and has tons of potential, but will lose most of its frontcourt with the exodus of Curtis (to graduation and then the NBA) and Williams, the teams’ often-overlooked but very talented forward (to graduation). Next year, the Rebels look to be equally as talented offensively but rebounding will suffer badly and defense should continue to struggle.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Georgia (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 6-8

SEC Tournament

West #3 seed
Round One: vs. Georgia (E6)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NIT: 1 seed

South Carolina (12-14, 4-8)

The Gamecocks are a stereotypical USC team – one talented point guard, and very little surrounding him. Downey can’t win every game on his own, and thus the squad has struggled. Amidst Odom’s announcement of his retirement at the end of the season, South Carolina has seemed just fall just short in nearly every game. South Carolina is actually one of the SEC’s best – if not the best – three-point shooting teams from a percentage aspect, but their reliance on the longball can get them into some trouble if they’re not falling. Downey is one of the conference’s top scorers, averaging 19.7 points per game, though he’s also putting up over 17 attempts per game. Downey is responsible, however, for 5.1 assists per outing. As a sophomore, Downey will likely leave his name out of the NBA waters, but he has the talent to get there at some point in his career. Losing literally noone from this year’s team, the Gamecocks are poised to be a competitive bunch next season, depending on the coaching change.v

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-17, 5-11

SEC Tournament

East #5 seed
Round One: vs. Auburn (W4)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Tennessee (25-3, 11-2)

After a thrilling upset of the nation’s top-ranked team in Memphis, the Vols were ushered into the top spot with welcome arms the following Monday. However, the excitement of the program’s first #1 ranking ever was soon lost on Tuesday night, as the Vols dropped a 3-point road decision to 18th-ranked Vanderbilt. Tennessee is still a menacing team sure to stretch their season long into the NCAA Tournament and continue to vie for a top seed barring no more losses until the conference tournament’s final game. Rebounding has been a pleasant surprise for head coach Bruce Pearl, mainly due to his genious coaching skills and the team knowing their placements on shot-selection. The team makes more three-pointers than any other team in the conference, but barely shoots an above-average percentage from that range. Balanced scoring has highlighted the team’s dynamic, as pre-season All-American Chris Lofton’s percentages has suffered this year. He still leads the team in scoring, but isn’t shooting even 40% from the field and is hoisting up almost 2 more shots per game than any other teammate. JuJuan Smith has evolved into a Jamont-Gordon-like dynamic player who’s able to do almost anything with the basketball, and Tyler Smith has lived up to the pre-season hype as one of the nation’s best incoming transfers. The immense wealth of talent that Pearl has so quickly stock-piled is unrivaled in the conference, and any number of players could prove to have NBA skills, including Lofton, Tyler/JuJuan Smith, and others. Because of this, it’s very difficult to pick out who may actually jump, although I suspect both Lofton and JuJuan Smith will put their names in the hat due to their lack of remaining eligibility. Those two are the only players lost for Tennessee (although they are very important pieces to the puzzle), so Tennessee could once again be in the running for a divisional or conference title next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

28-3, 14-2

SEC Tournament

East #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. South Carolina (E5) or Auburn (W4)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 1 seed

Vanderbilt (24-4, 9-4)

The Commodores started off at a red-hot clip, winning 16-straight games before losing 4 of their next 5. Appearing to be mimmicking Ole Miss’ epic implosion, the Commodores bounced back to a very good SEC record and have long since sealed their NCAA fates. The team (seemingly among many others in the Eastern Division) relies heavily on three-point shooting while rebounding isn’t a specialty, and has been anchored by SEC Player of the Year candidate Shan Foster and outstanding SEC Fresham of the Year candidate A.J. Ogilvy. Foster is near the top of the conference in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per contest on an absolutely excellent 51.6% shooting despite putting up over 13 attempts per game. Foster also is shooting over 45% from behind the arc and 5 rebounds per game. Ogilvy has proved formidable on the offensive end and less so on the defensive end, averaging 16.6ppg and 6.8rpg. Both players have NBA potential, although Foster is an almost definite as this is his last year. Ogilvy is a big question-mark, as he’s been on scouts’ radars even since his high-school days in Australia. If the team loses both, next year could be a semi-rebuilding year, although the NCAA’s would still be well within reach.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

at Arkansas (W)
vs. Mississippi State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

27-4, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #3 seed
Round One: vs. LSU (W6)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 3 seed

Wednesday odds…

Overall: 132-31 (81.0%)
Vs. Spread: 58-53 (52.3%)
Overall (SEC): 39-13 (75.0%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 25-26 (49.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(12-14, 4-8) South Carolina [#133] vs. (10-16, 3-9) LSU [#175]
Spread: South Carolina by 7.5
Pick: LSU – Although the Gamecocks should win, LSU has been improving and this shouldn’t be a blowout.
—Keys: LSU is entirely too unpredictable lately to make any pick of their games with confidence. The Tigers will need to extend their defense against USC’s three-point shooting, and the Gamecocks will need to keep Thornton and Randolph in check.

(12-13, 3-9) Georgia [#132] vs. (20-7, 7-5) Florida [#58]
Spread: Georgia by 1
Pick: Florida – This is one of the more obvious picks of the season. The Bulldogs simply don’t have the talent to match up with the Gators, although Florida is young and playing on the road.
—Keys: Calathes vs. Gaines – which will be contained more effectively?

(18-8, 9-3) Mississippi State [#40] vs. (14-11, 4-8) Auburn [#126]
Spread: Miss. State by 12.5
Pick: Miss. State – The Bulldogs took care of the Tigers in Auburn by 19. This is obviously a mismatch for Auburn size-wise, and should be a blowout.
—Keys:  The Tigers absolutely must stay out of foul trouble and find open shots against a potent defense to stay in the game.

(15-10, 9-3) Kentucky [#65] vs. (18-8, 4-8) Ole Miss [#43]
Spread: Kentucky by 3
Pick: Kentucky – The Rebels have fallen off lately, and the Wildcats know this is a must-win to keep their dim NCAA hopes alive.
—Keys: Watch the Patterson vs. Curtis matchup. The Rebels will need to hit some threes against the talented Kentucky defense.

(14-13, 3-9) Alabama [#130] vs. (18-8, 7-5) Arkansas [#36]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Arkansas – I’m going with the Razorbacks in the win, although the Tide have been tough both away and home and simply haven’t closed out games.
—Keys: If the Tide keep Hendrix out of foul trouble, they have a shot – he is absolutely necessary in the game to keep it close. The Razorbacks will need to take advantage of a very, very weak defense.

Saturday games…

Overall: 131-31 (80.9%)
Vs. Spread: 57-53 (51.8%)
Overall (SEC): 38-13 (74.5%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 24-26 (48.0%)
East vs. West: East, 19-7

(15-10, 9-3) Kentucky [63] vs. (18-8, 7-5) Arkansas [58]: This was an intense game to the very end, as the Razorbacks led much of the game. As will happen in the SEC, however, the visiting team ran out of steam in the final minutes. Neither team shared the ball well, both teams shot decently, and Kentucky won the battle of the boards solidly. With lopsided scoring for both teams, Bradley and Crawford each scored 18 for the Wildcats in the win, combining for 10-of-25 shooting. Patterson rounded out Kentucky scorers in double digits with 14 points and 11 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season. Only two other Wildcats scored. For the Razorbacks, only Weems managed more than 8 points with his 26 on a ridiculous 20 attempts, while last year’s SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly shot just 1-of-8 from the floor for 4 points.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are clinging to their NCAA hopes, as no 10-win team has ever been left out of the NCAA tournament (that I know of). With that said, if the ‘Cats were to win just one more, they’d be the first. If Kentucky were to lose another game, it could prove fatal for their Big Dance hopes.
Impact [Arkansas]: Now two games behind MSU in the SEC West with just four games remaining, they have realistically lost the West. Time to focus on the NCAA’s, as the team will need to at least split their remaining four games to be considered.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 34 rebounds to Arkansas’ 22

(12-14, 4-8) South Carolina [56] vs. (18-8, 9-3) Mississippi State [61]: In the first overtime game for either team this season, the Bulldogs pulled out one of the conference’s most dramatic wins this season. With barely a second remaining in the game, State’s Hansbrough chucked up a desperation three to tie the game and was fouled. Despite the immense pressure, Hansbrough swished all three extra shots to send the game to overtime where MSU – without Varnado or Gordon – dominated. Senior Charles Rhodes was the only State player in double digits with 24 on 11-of-17 shooting along with 9 rebounds, while Varnado brought down 12 rebounds and 7 points. All-america candidate Gordon shot just 3-of-10 for 9 points, 5 rebounds, and an unacceptable 7 turnovers. Downey couldn’t figure out State’s zone, shooting 6-of-18 for 19 points while freshman Mike Holmes proved a spark off the bench with 12 points and 13 rebounds to record his second-straight double-double.
Impact [South Carolina]: With just four games remaining, the NIT is looking like an improbability without winning them all and reaching the SEC Tournament finals.
Impact [Miss. State]: Now 2 games ahead in the West with just four games remaining, State has effectively sealed their stake on the divisional title. The NCAA’s are probable as long as the squad doesn’t drop the “gimme”s (LSU and Auburn at home), so seeding will now be the main focus for the Bulldogs.
Stat of the Game: State’s 43.4% shooting compared to USC’s 30.8%

(23-4, 8-4) #20 Vanderbilt [86] vs. (12-13, 3-9) Georgia [74]: As expected, the Bulldogs’ offense couldn’t keep up with the Commodore offense, and Georgia’s defense wasn’t enough to hold Vandy back. Foster made yet another argument for SEC Player of the Year with 29 points on 11-of-18 shooting and 6 rebounds, while Alex Gordon was no slouch with 23 points on an impressive 7-of-9 shooting from behind the arc and 4 assists. Ogilvy also fared relatively well, shooting 5-of-7 for 14 points and 6 rebounds. Gaines was most of UGA’s offense (surprise, huh?) with 24 points on 19 attempts along with 5 rebounds and 6 assists, Bliss claimed 10 rebounds, and Humphrey added 15 points.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It’s looking like the ‘Dores avoided the major collapse that Ole Miss has experienced and are set for a very substantial seed in the NCAA’s. None of the remaining games are easy, but 2 or 3 more wins could bump up this team to a 3 or 4 seed.
Impact [Georgia]: As with USC, the postseason is out of the question without winning all of the remaining regular season games and reaching the SEC Tournament finals.
Stat of the Game: Only 12 people total scoring points in the game

(10-16, 3-9) LSU [69] vs. (18-8, 4-8) Ole Miss [49]: A loss to LSU would have severely damaged Ole Miss’ NCAA chances, but a 20-point blowout to a bottom-of-the-barrell LSU team and dropping to 0-6 on the road in league play is as close to a knockout blow as they could get. Ironically, neither team shot well but the Rebels – obviously – shot much worse than bad. The SEC’s best rebounding team also got outrebounded by the Tigers and clearly was outhustled in every category. The Tigers were led by a pair of double-doubles, as Randolph put up 15 points and 11 rebounds for his seventh of the season and Chris Johnson contributed 12 points and 15 rebounds for his second of the season. Thornton led all scorers with 17 points. Amazingly, not a single Ole Miss player scored in double digits, with Huertas coming the closest with 9 points on 2-of-11 shooting and 10 rebounds. Polynice shot 2-of-8 but did collect 12 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: With the post-season out of the question, a morale victory and momentum towards next season may be the only positives left available for the Tigers at this point.
Impact [Ole Miss]: As stated before, this was a huge blow for Ole Miss in nearly every way. Unless the Rebels finish 4-0, their NCAA hopes are not good.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss’ 19-of-71 (26.8%) shooting from the floor

(26-1, 12-0) #1 Memphis [#2] (25-2, 11-1) #2 Tennessee [#1]: The clash of top-ranked teams hype lived up to its potential, as the Vols came away with an absolutely tremendous road victory, effectively sealing their argument on the nation’s #1 overall NCAA seed if they win out. Tennessee heavily outrebounded the Tigers but turned the ball over more to negate their rebounding to a degree. The Vols were – again – led by balanced scoring, this time Tyler Smith scored the most with 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting and 6 rebounds. JuJuan Smith added 9 points and led the team with 10 rebounds, while Lofton shot just 2-of-11 and 0-of-4 from long range for 7 points. Rose led the Tigers in scoring with 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: If the Vols can win out, the nation’s top seed is theirs.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 46-31 rebound advantage

Sunday Odds

(13-11, 3-8) Auburn [#139] vs. (14-12, 3-8) Alabama [#122]
Spread: Alabama by 1.5
Pick: Auburn – The Tigers have been playing competitively and should win this game at home due to good shooting and a very, very poor Alabama defense
—Keys: The Tide will need to find some defense. If the Tigers shoot as well as they are capable, this could even be a blowout.

Saturday odds…

Overall: 129-29 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-51 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 36-11 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-24 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 18-6

(14-10, 8-3) Kentucky [#73] vs. (18-7, 7-4) Arkansas [#35]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: Kentucky – The Wildcats are playing well at home and the Razorbacks are playing poorly on the road.
—Keys: Kentucky’s excellent free throw shooting should win them the game

(12-13, 4-7) South Carolina [#118] vs. (17-8, 8-3) Mississippi State [#44]
Spread: Miss. State by 3
Pick: South Carolina – The Gamecocks have the shooting, especially at home, to win this game. USC is one of the SEC’s best three-point shooting teams.
—Keys: As MSU’s defense has been lagging recently, the Bulldogs will need to defend the three to have a chance to win

(22-4, 7-4) #20 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (12-12, 3-8) Georgia [#129]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 7
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Commodores’ offense should overcome the Dogs’ defense relatively easily.
—Keys: Watch out for the Gaines vs. Foster matchup

(9-16, 2-9) LSU [#184] vs. (18-7, 4-7) Ole Miss [#41]
Spread: Ole Miss by 4
Pick: Ole Miss – Although the Tigers are playing better, the Rebels are playing for the NCAA Tournament.
—Keys: This game is a potential back-breaker for the Rebels…how will the freshman handle the pressure?

Wednesday games…

Overall: 129-29 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-51 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 36-11 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-24 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 18-6

(18-7, 7-4) Arkansas [87] vs. (9-16, 2-9) LSU [61]: This game went about how the records would indicate it should. Arkansas’ scoring was impressively balanced, led by Ervin’s 7-of-13 shooting for 17 points and 6 rebounds, while Townes hit a perfect 6-of-6 to score 12 and add 7 rebounds. Welsh and Weems also scored in double digits, while Beverly actually fell just one short but claimed 9 rebounds. LSU simply couldn’t get anything going on offense against Arkansas’ potent defense, with Randolph, Johnson, and Martin combining for 38 attempts and 19 makes.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks move just a game back in the West, but will need to learn to play on the road to compete with MSU. Regardless, 2 more wins should solidify an NCAA bid, but 3 would be unquestionable.
Impact [LSU]: Very little, except soundly ending any momentum the Tigers may have had moving towards the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas shooting 15.6% better than LSU from the field

(20-7, 7-5) Florida [85] vs. (12-13, 4-7) South Carolina [82]: The Gators’ lack of defense almost bit them again (pun intended), but they squeaked out a win in a game that otherwise would have been a NCAA-hope downer. Both teams were absolutely on fire from the field, with Florida better from the field and USC better from long range and both poor from the charity stripe. Five Gators scored in double digits, led by Calathes’ 6-of-11 shooting, with Speights scoring 10 and claiming 10 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season. Baniulis and Downey each led the Gamecocks with 18 points on a collective 13-of-27 shooting effort while freshman Mike Holmes scored a season-high 16 points and recorded his first double-double of the season with 11 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: This is a sign more than ever that the Gators absolutely have to buckle down on defense or there will be some one-and-dones in their near future. Florida will likely need to win at least two more to solidify their stake in the NCAA’s due to a very weak non-conference schedule.
Impact [South Carolina]: It’s all about the SEC Tournament now, as the Gamecocks are likely out of the question for any postseason play.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 12-of-23 (52.2%) from three

(18-7, 4-7) Ole Miss [74] vs. (17-8, 8-3) Mississippi State [63]: Interesting how each team seemed to be overly focused on the other – as can happen in intense rivalry games. Both teams started the game absolutely on fire, as MSU began hitting 8 of their first 9 shots. Both teams then went into a slump, began hitting shots down the stretch, and naturally the home team finished with a slight advantage. Neither team shot spectacularly, with Ole Miss owning a slight advantage in that collumn as well. Warren brought home 22 points, assisted by his 18 shot attempts, while Curtis proved his interior dominance with 10 points and a tremendous 16 rebounds for his 13th double-double of the season. Gordon led State with 20 points in a similar case to Warren, attempting 17 shots and 11 of those from behind the arc, while Stewart led MSU in rebounding with 8.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The win was certainly a boost for the Rebels, who are desperately clawing for an argument for NCAA Tournament inclusion despite a gaudy overall record. The Rebs likely need to win 4 more (with 5 games remaining plus the SEC Tournament) to make the Big Dance.
Impact [Miss. State]: This was one of the more winnable games remaining on MSU’s very tough remainder to the schedule. With just a game lead in the West, State will need to win at least 2 more to feel slightly comfortable with a win in the SEC Tournament to make the NCAA’s, 3 more to be a lock.
Stat of the Game: Curtis responsible for 39.0% of Ole Miss’ rebounds

(24-2, 11-1) #2 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-11, 3-8) Auburn [70]: The Volunteers certainly proved they were not looking ahead to Saturday’s #1 vs. #2 matchup in this game, leading at halftime 46-20. Auburn got absolutely nothing going on offense and Tennessee tickled the bottom of the net time after time, also outrebounding the Tigers. Lofton shot just 4-of-10 from the floor but led the Vols with 19 points, and Tyler Smith notched 13 points and rebounds apiece for his 5th double-double of the season and 2nd in a row. Tolbert and Prowell supplied nearly all of Auburn’s offense with a combined 45 points and 16 rebounds on 14-of-32 shooting, with Tolbert respsonsible for 10 rebounds to record his 1st double-double of the season.
Impact [Tennessee]: No harm no foul as the Volunteers battle #1 Memphis this weekend for a stake as the nation’s #1 overall seed.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers will likely need to win out to even have an argument for the NIT – it’s about time to begin building up momentum for the SEC Tournament because that’s not going to happen.
Stat of the Game: 9 Tennessee players scoring at least 4 points

Tuesday game, Wednesday Odds…

Overall: 126-28 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-47 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 33-10 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-20 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 17-6

Tuesday Game

(14-10, 8-3) Kentucky [61] vs. (12-12, 3-8) Georgia [55]: Dominating early, the Wildcats fell into desparity late in the game while the Bulldogs hit three after three, bringing the game within striking distance. Unfortunately for Georgia, that wasn’t enough. Highlighting the ‘Cats’ lack of depth, Crawford and Patterson combined for 70.5% of Kentucky’s points, with Crawford responsible for 23 points on 4-of-9 shooting from long range and Patterson pitching in 20 on 8-of-15 shooting and 9 rebounds. Bradley strangely led the team in rebounding with 12, but the SEC’s best free-throw shooter was 0-of-2 from the charity stripe. Woodbury led the Bulldogs in scoring with 15 on just 5-of-15 shooting, while Gaines marked his third double-double of the season with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists to three turnovers.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are desperately trying to bolster their NCAA argument and losing at home to Georgia would have been a knockout blow. The ‘Cats absolutely can’t afford a loss to a “lower” team at this point, and still need to finish 4-1 or 5-0 to even come close to the bubble.
Impact [Georgia]: As proven last night, the Bulldogs just don’t have the depth off the bench to keep their starters rested in big games. Any postseason is becoming unlikely at this point.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s bench responsible for just 4.9% of their scoring

Wednesday Odds

(23-2, 10-1) #2 Tennessee [#1] vs. (13-10, 3-7) Auburn [#147]
Spread: Tennessee by 16.5
Pick: Auburn – Although the Vols should win easily, the Tigers have the shooting prowess and speed to keep this reasonable.
—Keys: Auburn’s three-point shooting – the Vols have a decent defense and Auburn will be playing on the road. If the Tigers can manage to hit some from behind the arc, the game could be close.

(17-7, 3-7) Ole Miss [#47] vs. (17-7, 8-2) Mississippi State [#43]
Spread: Ole Miss by 1.5
Pick: Mississippi State – By rule of momentum and comparison, MSU should win. The Rebels seem to be floundering, State has played well on the road, and the Rebels lost to a much worse Auburn team at home.
—Keys: Points in the paint – the guards should come close to even, so Rhodes and Curtis will be relied upon heavily to contribute. Also, Warren or Gordon’s ability to get to the rim could define the outcome.

(19-7, 6-5) Florida [#57] vs. (12-12, 4-6) South Carolina [#117]
Spread: Florida by 8.5
Pick: Florida – Although the Gators have been struggling recently, the home crowd should give the potent offense the confidence they so desperately need.
—Keys: Florida’s offense – Although Downey will almost no doubt score more than 20, the Gamecocks won’t be able to compete offensively if the Gators can get their shooting touch back.

(17-7, 6-4) Arkansas [#32] vs. (9-15, 2-8) LSU [#185]
Spread: Arkansas by 12
Pick: LSU – Not long ago this would have been an easy pick the other way. With LSU’s newly-found motivation, this should be a sub-10 point decision for the Razorbacks.
—Keys: Blocks – Both teams have talented shot-blockers, and if either team relies too heavily on interior scoring it could be a long night. With that said, Arkansas clearly has the upper hand in scoring from behind the arc.

Saturday games…

Overall: 126-28 (81.8%)
Vs. Spread: 55-47 (53.9%)
Overall (SEC): 33-10 (76.7%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 22-20 (52.4%)
East vs. West: East, 17-6

(9-15, 2-8) LSU [63] vs. (13-10, 7-3) Kentucky [67]: Thornton simply couldn’t find his shot in this game, as he scored 9 points on 4-of-14 shooting. With only two main offensive threats, LSU can’t afford for anyone to have an off-night. Both teams shot well from the field – although the Tigers struggled yet again from long range – and LSU slightly outrebounded the Wildcats. Joe Crawford led Kentucky with 21 points on 3-of-7 shooting from behind the arc, Patterson put up 14 points on 7-of-10 shooting and 5 rebounds, and Bradley hit a perfect 4 free throws, grabbed 7 rebounds and dished 6 assists, but turned the ball over 5 times. Randolph led all scorers with 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting and claimed 14 rebounds for his 6th double-double of the season.
Impact [LSU]: The Tigers are finally playing talented teams closely, but it’s far beyond too little too late.
Impact [Kentucky]: Unless the ‘Cats win out, their NCAA chances are gone without winning the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: Without their 3 leading scorers, each team combined for just 34 points.

(22-4, 7-4) #24 Vanderbilt [61] vs. (19-7, 6-5) Florida [58]: Despite Vanderbilt – the conference’s best 3-point shooting team - hitting only 37.9% of their shots from the field, the Gators were held to just 1-of-15 shooting from behind the arc and ultimately fell just one made three short of at least sending the game to overtime. Shan Foster easily led all scorers with 19 points on 7-of-16 shooting along with 6 rebounds while Ogilvy neared double-double status with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Calathes and Speights each contributed 11 for the Gators – Calathes with 6 assists to 3 turnovers – and Hodge added  10 points and 5 assists to 1 turnover.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Now playing for seeding with an NCAA bid effectively in-hand, the ‘Dores will stay in the Top 25 and continue receiving exposure with the win.
Impact [Florida]: Realistically in the NCAA’s barring a major implosion, the Gators are also battling for seeding. With their very weak non-conference SOS, the squad will need to rack up some wins late to receive a decent seed.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 6.7% three-point shooting

(12-11, 3-7) Georgia [71] vs. (23-2, 10-1) #4 Tennessee [74]: Give the Volunteers credit for finding ways to win on the road, because they trailed much of this game. The contest evolved into a shooting match between Gaines and Lofton, and ended similar to the overall score – close. Lofton put up 22 points on 6-of-12 shooting from behind the arc (wow) while Chism managed 16 points and 9 rebounds and Tyler Smith recorded 12 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season. Gaines outscored Lofton by 1 with 23 points on 8-of-20 shooting, 9 rebounds, and 8 assits to approach triple-double status, and Woodbury had 14 points and 6 rebounds for the Bulldogs.
Impact [Georgia]: NIT hopes are still alive for the Bulldogs, but just barely as the team would need to nearly win out to make the cut. With that said, a three-point loss to a national-title contender is something to be proud of for a 12-11 team.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols are looking increasingly vulnerable, but a trip to Memphis this weekend should solidify the winner of that game as the nation’s top overall seed. The Vols still must visit Vanderbilt and Florida as well, both games to keep an eye on if Tennessee hopes to maintain their status as a top seed.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 46.2% free throw shooting

(17-7, 8-2) Mississippi State [80] vs. (17-7, 6-4) Arkansas [74]: State dominated the first half, eating through the Arkansas defense and leading by 13. The ‘Backs came to life in the second, though, and went on a 19-4 run to open the half and regain the lead. Apparently the Dogs have been working on their putrid free-throw shooting, because for seemingly the up-teenth time this season free-throw shooting down the stretch won them the game. Senior Charles Rhodes scored 19 points by halftime and finished with 24 – including a made three-pointer – but only 1 rebound while Stewart shot 3-of-5 from behind the arc and a perfect 6-of-6 from the charity stripe to contribute 19 points. Varnado swatted just 3 points but grabed 10 rebounds and scored 10 points for the fourth double-double of the season. Gary Ervin played well in his last game playing at his former school, shooting 6-of-11 from the field along with 2-of-3 shooting from behind the arc.
Impact [Miss. State]: With the win, State has full control of the Western Division without a huge turnaround for both teams. MSU has effectively moved into the “probably” category for the NCAA’s, but at least 3 more wins either in the regular season or in the conference tournament will be needed to solidify their stake.
Impact [Arkansas]: As stated above, the West if now firmly in the hands of MSU. Arkansas still has a distant shot, however, and still appear to be a solid pick for the NCAA’s, but as with State, a few more wins will be needed to assure themselves a spot.
Stat of the Game: MSU’s +8 rebound advantage

(17-7, 3-7) Ole Miss [78] vs. (13-10, 3-7) Auburn [90]: After an undefeated run through the non-conference schedule, the Rebels are trying as hard as they can to play themselves out of the NCAA’s. Auburn’s superior ball-handling and the Rebels’ lack of defense allowed the Tigers to scorch the nets, hitting 32-of-51 attempts. Two Auburn players scored more than 20 points, led by Prowell’s 25 on 11-of-15 shooting from the field, including 3-of-5 from behind the arc. Reed wasn’t far behind with 23 points on 5-of-10 shooting, including a 4-of-7 effort from long range, but turned the ball over 5 times. Warren didn’t shoot nearly as often as usualy, bringing down just 8 points, as freshman Trevor Gaskins was the surprise lead scorer for Ole Miss with 15 points.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This was possibly the most destructive loss of the season for the Rebels, as the squad has now been swept by a 3-7 Auburn team. The Rebels will need a 4-2 mark or better in the remainder of their schedule to even be considered for the NCAA’s.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers are playing decently well, but they can’t afford to lose more than one the remainder of the way if they hope to make the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 62.7% shooting percentage

(12-12, 4-6) South Carolina [67] vs. (14-12, 3-8) Alabama [65]: Another matchup of shooters, this time of Downey and Riley. Alabama heavily outshot the Gamecocks percentage-wise, but USC forced 18 turnovers and claimed 4 more offensive rebounds to attempt a full 22 more shots than the Tide. Downey led all scorers for the Gamecocks with 29 points on 6-of-10 shooting from long range and a game-high 7 steals. Archie shot 6-of-12 for 17 points. Riley fell just a point shy of Downey with 28 points on an incredible 8-of-10 effort from behind the arc along with 9 rebounds while Hendrix contributed the 13th double-double of the season with 17 points and 10 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: As with Georgia, the Gamecocks are still in the running for the NIT, but barely. An almost undefeated record from here out would be necessary.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are in a similar boat, as a near-perfect record in the remainder of the schedule will be necessary to be considered for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Riley/Downey combining for 43.2% of the game’s points

Saturday odds…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 15-6

(9-14, 2-7) LSU [#176] vs. (12-10, 6-3) Kentucky [#84]
Spread: Kentucky by 1.5
Pick: LSU – I’m picking the Tigers in the upset. Although the Wildcats have been a better team, both teams have depth troubles and LSU has the momentum and home floor.
—Keys: Patterson will need to forge a way through some talented big-men while Randolph/Thornton will need to stay hot. Look for a very low-scoring game.

(21-4, 6-4) #24 Vanderbilt [#12] vs. (19-6, 6-4) Florida [#61]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 3.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – The Gators are very young and should fall by 5+ on the road.
—Keys: All eyes are on Florida to see how the talented team reacts to losing an embarassing decision at home to LSU. Both teams are essentially playing for NCAA seeding.

(12-10, 3-6) Georgia [#121] vs. (22-2, 9-1) #4 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 6.5
Pick: Tennessee – This was a tough call because this very well could be a close game, but the Bulldogs don’t have the depth to match the Volunteers.
—Keys: Both defenses are pretty good, but Georgia’s will have to step up big time to pull out the “W”. An interesting bet would be who scores more: Gaines or Lofton?

(16-7, 7-2) Mississippi State [#51] vs. (17-6, 6-3) Arkansas [#28]
Spread: Miss. State by 5
Pick- Mississippi State – This was the most difficult call all season, but I will almost always choose the home team in a draw.
—Keys: This game could decide the West, and both teams have hurt their momentum lately. Arkansas should be relying on Weems and Beverly from outsie while State should be relying on Rhodes inside and Gordon to get to the lane.

(17-6, 3-6) Ole Miss [#31] vs. (12-10, 2-7) Auburn [#173]
Spread: Ole Miss by 13.5
Pick: Ole Miss – The Tigers have not been playing well and do not have the size to match up with Curtis in the paint, while relying on threes on the road can spell trouble.
—Keys: As long as the Rebels’ 3-point defense is decent, this should be a relatively easy win.

(11-12, 3-6) South Carolina [#111] vs. (14-11, 3-7) Alabama [#108]
Spread: South Carolina by 2
Pick: South Carolina – Both teams are on the upswing, but the Gamecocks are playing better at home than the Tide is playing on the road.
—Keys: If Alabama turns the ball over more than 20 times, they have no chance to win.

Tuesday and Wednesday games…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 15-6

Tuesday Game

(21-4, 6-4) #24 Vanderbilt [93] vs. (12-10, 6-3) Kentucky [52]: This game will go down in infamy as denoting Kentucky’s single worst loss to an SEC opponent in history. In a seemingly perfect storm, the Commodores couldn’t go wrong on offense, blind-siding Kentucky with open threes, easy layups, and backdoor cuts while the Wildcats simply couldn’t do anything on defense. Stallings figured out how to keep Patterson out of the game and the Wildcats got in foul trouble by forcing the ball inside. In a matchup of SEC Freshman of the Year candidates, Ogilvy dominated Patterson, shooting 5-of-10 along with 9-of-11 from the charity stripe for 19 points and claiming 12 rebounds. Conversely, Patterson shot 3-of-9 from the field and managed 5 rebounds. Neither inside man blocked a shot. Foster led the ‘Dores in scoring per the usual, chipping in 20 points while Bradley was the only hope for Kentucky with a game-high 21 on 8-of-19 shooting. The main difference was Vandy’s bench, as they outscored Kentucky’s heavily.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Despite this being a game the ‘Dores were “supposed” to win at home, the 41-point blowout of Kentucky put an emphatic “Yes” after the question as to whether the ‘Dores would still make the Dance. It’s all about seeding at this point.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are still easily over .500 in-conference, but after this nationally-televised humiliation, the ‘Cats will likely need to win nearly ever game from here on out to become an at-large.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s bench scoring 25 points versus Kentucky’s 10.

Wednesday Games

(14-11, 3-7) Alabama [76] vs. (17-6, 3-6) Ole Miss [67]: The Rebels’ road problems continue as Ole Miss assumes position as college basketball’s ultimate dive-bomb for this season. However, let’s not forget the youth of this team and how remarkable 14-straight wins was – if the team had been 3-6 without the undefeated record little would be said, because this is the kind of performance expected by such a young team. The game was close as the Tide pulled away late, and no team dominated any categories except ball-handling and free throws. Five Tide members scored in double digits, led by Riley’s impressive 22-point outing on 5-of-12 shooting from behind the arc – someone was desperate to get some shots up – and 7 rebounds. Hendrix didn’t get enough touches, with only 8 shot attempts, but 8 rebounds while Gee shot poorly but added 9 rebounds. Warren shot a miserable 5-of-19 (relying a little too heavily on one player, guys?) for 13 points and Hendrix kept Curtis from being a factor offensively, as he pulled down only 3 points.
Impact [Alabama]: The bottom of the West is becoming muddled, but that is irrelevant, truthfully. Alabama is realistically out of the NCAA chase, and will need a 4-2 mark or so from here on out to have an argument for the NIT.
Impact [Ole Miss]: Despite their impressive beginning, it’s beginning to look more and more like the Rebels will be a high seed in the NIT. 20 wins may not do it, so a 4-3 mark at very least will be needed to be considered for the NCAA’s.
Stat of the Game: The Rebels’ 9:16 assist-to-turnover ratio

(19-6, 6-4) Florida [73] vs. (9-14, 2-7) LSU [85]: In what was possibly the SEC’s biggest upset of this season, the Tigers led most of this game and won by 12. After losing to Tennessee by only 2 at home and following that up with a 12-point road win over the Gators, the question is nagging everyone: Is LSU better off without John Brady? It certainly appears so. Two Tigers scored at least 20 points, as Randolph led all scorers with 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting and 5 rebounds while Thornton added 20 on 8-of-11 shooting (including 4-of-7 from three) and 4 steals. Johnson also shot 8-of-11, his for 19 points while two other Tigers scored in double digits. Calathes led the Gators with 16 points and 5 assists, along with an uncharacteristic 5 turnovers, while Werner shot just 6-of-16 (and 1-of-7 from long range) for 13 points.
Impact [Florida]: Although this should still relatively easily be an NCAA team, the team will need at least a 2-4 mark or so from here on out to solidify their stake. The impact of this loss could be felt down the line as the team has now officially fallen out of the race for the East – keep an eye on the squad’s motivation after a tough loss.
Impact [LSU]: It’s tough to hear, but it’s too little too late for the Tigers. Even if LSU won the remainder of their games and made the SEC Tournament finals, they likely would be left out of even the NIT.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s +18 rebound margin

(12-10, 3-6) Georgia [82] vs. (11-12, 3-6) South Carolina [64]: In a game of very little consequence outside of UGA or USC fans, the Bulldogs managed to attempt to make a statement in this 18-point blowout. This game was pure domination in every aspect – especially in the rebounding collumn, where’s Georgia’s margin was just obscene. After putting up 32 on Florida in Gainesville, Sundiata Gaines came out hot again to register 27 against the Gamecocks on 8-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-7 from behind the arc, along with 8 rebounds. Two ‘Dogs recorded double-doubles for their first times this season, Bliss with 12 points and 10 rebounds and Price with 19 points and 12 rebounds. Downey was everything for USC, scoring 20 points on a 4-of-7 effort from behind the arc along with 5 assists and 3 steals.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little. The ‘Dogs are out of the race for the NCAA’s and will need a tremendous 6-1 showing to be considered for the NIT.
Impact [South Carolina]: Very little. The Gamecocks are battling for last place in the East and will need a nearly perfect record from here on out for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: UGA’s 42-19 rebound advantage

(22-2, 9-1) #4 Tennessee [93] vs. (17-6, 6-3) Arkansas [71]: In a game with tremendous consequences for both teams, the Vols ironically seemed to sneak up on a 22-point blowout. The game seemed very competitive, and yet the Vols slowly added to their comfortable lead. Tennessee shot noticeably better, but otherwise very little stands out about the game statistically. JuJuan Smith stole the show, tying a season-high with 32 points on 9-of-13 from the field, but more impressively – a 6-of-6 mark from behind the arc. Tyler Smith and Chism each pitched in 15 points while Lofton was suffocated when he touched the ball and it was noticeable in his stats: 2-of-8 from the field and 0-of-3 from behind the arc, finishing with just 6 points. Weems has been carrying the ‘Backs lately, as he created most of Arkansas’ offense with his 20 points on 8-of-17 shooting along with a 3-of-6 mark from long range along with 7 rebounds.
Impact [Tennessee]: With the win, the Vols have pretty much tied up the overall SEC title barring a major misjudgement of Arkansas or MSU. The Vols are still one of the frontrunners for a #1 seed nationally.
Impact [Arkansas]: With the loss, the ‘Backs have effectively fallen out of the overall SEC title race. The race is on for the West, though, with the ‘Backs travelling to Starkville to face MSU in a game that should effectively decide the winner of the division.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 44.4% shooting from behind the arc

Saturday games…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 13-5

(11-9, 5-2) Kentucky [62] vs. (13-10, 2-6) Alabama [52]: In a matchup of similar styles, the Crimson Tide simply couldn’t find any points against Kentucky’s defense, shooting just 37.3% from the field and being outrebounded by six. Ramel Bradley led the Wildcats, as he’s been playing very well lately, with 19 points on 3-of-6 shooting from long range but 4 turnovers to go along with it. Patterson had a decent game in the absence of Hendrix due to a sickness, shooting 5-of-11 from the field for 12 points and grabbing seven rebounds. Yamene Coleman stepped up in Hendrix’s place and played well, hitting 5-of-7 shots but his rebounding is poor, as he only claimed 2. Riley – who has also been hot lately – brought down 19 to lead the Tide along with 4 rebounds, but also 4 turnovers. Gee had a miserable night, hitting only 1 shot out of 9 attempted and 3 rebounds.
Impact [Kentucky]: The Wildcats are trying to become the ultimate underdog to the NCAA’s. It’s still very unlikely, but it’s theoretically possible. The ‘Cats can’t afford a single injury or a single loss to a “lesser” team, period.
Impact [Alabama]: As only the NIT’s are in sight for the Tide, a 5-3 mark or a 4-4 with a win in the SEC tournament will be necessary for post-season play.
Stat of the Game: Both teams’ combined 2:3 assist-to-turnover ratio

(17-5, 6-2) Arkansas [75] vs. (16-5, 3-5) Ole Miss [69]: This game was close until the Razorbacks began to pull away late in the second half, and then the Rebels mounted a small comeback but it would not be enough. The Rebels are now joining Vanderbilt as the most overrated teams in the country headed into conference play, and the Razorbacks managed to keep their dreams for the Western Division title alive. Despite being outshot heavily, the ‘Backs managed to outrebound the Rebs and force enough turnovers to stay on top. Weems, who’s scored more than 20 4 out of the last 6 games, led the Razorbacks with 22 points and actually grabbed 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. The ‘Backs were one of two SEC teams with two double-doubles in the same game, as Beverly put up 17 points and an impressive 13 rebounds. He’s a shot guard – that still blows my mind. Anyways…Warren led all scorers on the game with a career-high 26 points on 9-of-15 shooting (including a blazing 6-of-8 from behind the arc) and Curtis recorded his seventh double-double in the last eight games with 12 points and a game-high 14 rebounds.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win was a big one to get out of the way for the ‘Backs, but their next two-game stretch could define the West. The ‘Backs will face league-leading Tennessee at home before heading to Starkville to take on the Bulldogs of Mississippi State.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels have to find a way to stop the bleeding, and they should be able to do so with Presbyterian at home followed by a trip to Alabama and then Auburn at home. If the Rebels don’t at least win four of their next eight games, the NCAA’s might be out of reach.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ +9 rebound advantage

(12-10, 2-7) Auburn [64] vs. (16-7, 7-2) Mississippi State [83]: Absolute domination can be the only description of this game despite a mere 19-point difference. The Tigers were suffocated on offense, outrebounded by a foresaken amount, and disassembled on defense. The only MSU fault in the game was turnovers, as State coughed it up 24 times. MSU outrebounded Auburn 46-27, shot 52.1% and held the Tigers to 33.8%, and blocked 9 shots. Two Bulldogs pulled down double-doubles, as Gordon led all scorers with 24 points on 11-of-12 shooting from the charity stripe and claimed a career-high-tying 13 rebounds to register two-straight double-doubles while Charles Rhodes recorded his third in the last four games with his 17 points and 10 rebounds. Hansbrough, fresh back from mono, put up 20 points on 4-of-7 shooting from three-point range. Barrett led the Tigers with 18 points despite a 7-of-22 shooting performance, while Tolbert and Robertson managed 17 and 16 respectively. State also hit 23-of-26 free throws (88.5%) to put up their highest free-throw percentage with at least 6 attempted since the 2004-05 campaign while Varnado broke MSU’s all-time single-season block record with at least nine games remaining in the season.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers’ chances at the postseason are dimming quickly, as they can afford very few more losses. Although the team may upset someone before the season is over, it’s becoming safe to place Auburn in the “afterthought” category.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs obviously came out very focused for this game and continue to hold a one-game lead on the West. The NCAA’s are quickly becoming a likely scenario, and next Saturday’s matchup against Arkansas could be to decide who wins the division.
Stat of the Game: State shooting 19.5% better than Auburn from three

(19-5, 6-3) Florida [77] vs. (11-10, 2-6) Georgia [67]: In a surprisingly competitive game, the Gators simply had no answer for Sundiata Gaines. However, hot shooting from three and effective rebounding won them the game. Four Gators scored in double digits, led by freshman Chandler Parsons’ 18 points and 6 rebounds. Calathes had a sub-par game, hitting only 1-of-7 shots for 7 points, handing out 6 assists but turning the ball over 4 times. Gaines was obviously the star of the game, hitting 11-of-20 shots, including 4-of-7 from three, for a crazy 32 points, claiming 9 rebounds and dishing out 5 assists. Bliss has picked up offensively as of late, shooting 4-of-7 in this game for a reasonable 13 points and 6 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are now nearly a lock for the NCAA’s assuming they manage to finish above .500 in the conference which would require just 3 more wins out of their remaining 7. Seeding will now be the focus, as their SOS is very weak, and they’re not quite out of the race for the East yet – but they’re pretty close.
Impact [Georgia]: The Bulldogs know they have one star player, but unfortunately that won’t be enough to win many games. The postseason is nearly out of contention at this point, as the Bulldogs are joining Auburn in the “afterthought” category.

(8-14, 1-7) LSU [45] vs. (21-2, 8-1) #7 Tennessee [47]: In what was to me the most surprising outcome of the day, the Vols nearly overlooked the Tigers enough to drop an embarassing conference game and completely lose any argument for a top NCAA seed. As the score suggests, the Vols couldn’t find any offense against the Tigers – they do have a relatively decent defense, ya know – and were held to some of their lowest perecentage shooting of the year. Lofton continues his hot hand, however, as he shot 3-of-5 from long range and 6-of-12 from the floor for 15 points, but Tyler Smith was the only other Volunteer in double digits as he shot 5-of-13 from the field. Chris Johnson has returned in the past week or two for the Tigers and has been effective, leading all scorers in this game with 17 points on 8-of-15 shooting along with 8 rebounds. Thornton managed 12 points and 7 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times.
Impact [LSU]: This team’s fate is already decided, so this could be seen as a moral victory at best.
Impact [Tennessee]: It was obvious the Vols needed a wake-up call, and this was certainly one of those. The team will need to re-focus quickly, as a game against Arkansas at home awaits them. A top NCAA seed is still within reach.
Stat of the Game: LSU’s 22 turnovers

(11-11, 3-5) South Carolina [65] vs. (20-4, 5-4) #23 Vanderbilt [66]: One missed defensive assignment is all it took for the Gamecocks to lose in the final seconds of the game. Vanderbilt was held to a reasonably low percentage from behind the arc, rebounds were similar, and turnovers were low for both teams. As the score indicates, the stats were very similar. Foster led all scorers with 21 points on 5-of-11 shooting from three-point along with 8 rebounds, and Ogilvy put up 15 points on 7-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds. A somewhat surprising Evaldas Baniulis scored a season-high and team-high 19 points on 7-of-8 shooting from the floor, including 5-of-5 from behind the arc, while Downey handed out 7 assists without a turnover.
Impact [South Carolina]: The postseason is becoming increasingly unlikely, but isn’t quite out of the question yet. However, a 6-2 mark from here and a win in the conference tournament would likely be necessary.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Now that the Commodores are over .500 in the conference and have 20 wins, a NCAA bid should be relatively close to in-hand. Seeding will be hard to increase because of a weak SOS, and the Eastern division is likely out of the question.
Stat of the Game: Only 17 combined free throws attempted

Brady ousted…

It’s being reported that John Brady, coach of the LSU Tigers, has been fired mid-season and it will be announced officially at 1 p.m. CT, or in about 40 minutes.

Brady, if you’ll remember, joined Florida in the Final Four two years ago, and was 13-4 and ranked 21st at a point last season before impoding and losing 9 of their last 10 and missing the postseason.

This season, Brady has led the Tigers to an unquestionable distinction as the worst team in the Southeastern Conference (as well as the worst SEC team to compete in a very long time) with a current record of 8-13 overall and 1-6 in-conference, with their only win over a 2-6 Auburn squad.

Names that are mentioned casually in the initial phases of the coaching search include Tim Floyd from USC, Tony Bennett of Washington State, and Sean Miller of Xavier.

I’ll keep on top of the search and update when news is released.

Saturday games…

Overall: 122-26 (82.4%)
Vs. Spread: 54-43 (55.7%)
Overall (SEC): 29-8 (78.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 21-16 (56.8%)
East vs. West: East, 11-5

 (11-8, 2-4) Georgia [58] vs. (10-9, 4-2) Kentucky [63]: Despite attempting 17 fewer shots and being outrebounded by 8, the Wildcats’ Joe Crawford willed his team to victory offensively while the ‘Cats shut down the Bulldogs defensively. Crawford scored 26 points on a 5-of-6 mark from behind the arc and 5 rebounds, while the only other Wildcat in double digits was Patterson with 16 points and 6 rebounds. Georgia was led by Gaines’ 15 points on 7-of-15 shooting and 7 rebounds, while Woodbury and Bliss pitched in 12 and 10 points, respectively.
Impact [Georgia]: This seemingly was a knock-out punch for the Bulldogs, who are effectively dead in the East now. Georgia will need a bare minimum of 6-4 from here out to be considered for the postseason.
Impact [Kentucky]: Now only a game back in the East, the Wildcats are strangely closer to challenging for the SEC title than they are a postseason bid. 7-3 or 8-2 is still necessary from here on out.
Stat of the Game: Crawford and Patterson combining for 59.6% of Kentucky’s shot attempts

(13-9, 2-5) Alabama [81] vs. (8-13, 1-6) LSU [72]: For the second game in a row, LSU actually found some offense, and this time against one of the better defenses in the SEC. However, it wasn’t enough to pull the “W”. Hendrix had a monster game (as you would expect against a team as thin as LSU) with 19 points on 9-of-18 shooting and a tremendous 17 rebounds, 4 steals, and 3 blocks. Riley also claimed 19 points along with 5 rebounds while Gee pitched in 15 points and Hollinger added 10 points, 6 assists, and only 1 turnover. The Tigers actually saw four players in double digits, Thornton easily leading the way with 22 points on 7-of-19 shooting while Randolph recorded his fifth double-double of the season with 13 points and 12 rebounds. Johnson and Martin added 13 and 12 points apiece, respectively.
Impact [Alabama]: One very small step towards anything positive. The Tide have a long way to go if they want to make any noise at the end of the season.
Impact [LSU]: When accepting moral victories, this could be seen as one – Tennessee played Alabama about this close on the road.
Stat of the Game: Hendrix/Riley/Gee taking 71.2% of Alabama’s shot attempts

(16-5, 5-2) Arkansas [80] vs. (18-4, 5-2) Florida [61]: In proving their 20-point victory over Mississippi State was no fluke, the Razorbacks also placed themselves firmly in the thick of the race for the overall SEC title with a 19-point thrashing of the visiting Gators. Weems has been on absolute fire from behind the arc in the last three games, hitting 13 of his last 19 attempts. He was 3-of-4 in this game to lead al scorers with 17 points, as both teams are very talented and deep. Beverly has undergone the strangest transformation in the conference, as he is now no longer a consistent threat as a shooter but easily leads a very physical team in rebounds per game – as a shot guard. Beverly has recorded double-figures in rebounds in 5 of the last 6 games with 12 against Arkansas, but he shot only 3-of-10 from the field. The potent Gator offense seemed to run into a brick wall in Fayetteville, trailing at the half 46-21 and shooting only 33.3% from the floor as a team for the game. Calathes notched 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists, while Speights and Hodge recorded 12 and 13 points respectively.
Impact [Arkansas]: After defeating the hottest team in the league, the Razorbacks are now the hottest team in the league. Only one game out of the overall lead set by Tennessee, the battle for the West between the ‘Backs and MSU should be entertaining.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators remain just a game back in the East, but the young team will need to learn quickly what it means to keep your eyes forward.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas shooting 20.9% better than Florida from the floor

(18-4, 3-4) #23 Vanderbilt [78] vs. (12-8, 2-5) Auburn [71]: After trailing a good deal in the second half, the Tigers mounted a tremendous comeback and made the game competitive again. Their height simply wasn’t enough, though, as the Commodores out-shot and out-rebounded their opponents significantly. Ogilvy finally had a big game against an SEC opponent (he was bound to against a height-limited squad like Auburn) as he scored 19 points on 6-of-9 shooting and 9 rebounds. Auburn’s Tolbert easily had the biggest game of his season, bringing down 32 points on 10-of-19 shooting including 5-of-8 from long range and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: The Commodores are struggling to reach .500 in conference play, but anything close should be an NCAA bid, as the squad has already secured 18 wins.
Impact [Auburn]: With any divisional title out of reach, the Tigers will need at least a 6-3 mark from here on out to reach the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Auburn shooting over 3% better from behind the arc than from the floor

(16-4, 3-4) #19 Ole Miss [77] vs. (11-10, 3-4) South Carolina [80]: This could be the defining upset of the SEC season. Ole Miss, even with 3 losses, looked to compete in the West with Arkansas and Mississippi Sate. With this home loss to a sub-par South Carolina team, the Rebels are nearly out barring a major turn of events. Downey and Archie dealt the damage for the Gamecocks, combining for 45 points on 17-of-28 shooting. Curtis brought down his 11th double-double of the season, and 5th in a row, with 25 points and 10 rebounds. Ultimately, the Rebels’ lack of defense proved their downfall, with USC doing what they do well – shoot threes.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This was a huge blow to the Rebels. Now having learned that defense will be needed to win in the SEC, the goal will shift now to a decent NCAA seed rather than the Western title.
Impact [South Carolina]: Although USC is likely out of any divisional title discussion, the Gamecocks are wreaking havock on Western Division home floors. Still, a 7-2 mark from here out will be necessary for an NIT bid.
Stat of the Game: USC’s 11-of-22 shooting from long range

(14-7, 5-2) Mississippi State [71] vs. (19-2, 6-1) #7 Tennessee [76]: This was the most exciting finish to a game I’ve seen in quite a while. After trailing by as many as 17 with 6 minutes remaining in the game, State’s Barry Stewart and Jamont Gordon hit 7 of their next 8 three-pointers to close the gap to two and possession within 30 seconds, only to turn the ball over and see the Volunteers ice the game from the free throw line. Lofton seems to have found his stroke in the past few games, as he scored 20 points on 4-of-9 shooting from behind the arc. JuJuan Smith added 15 points and 5 rebounds in the win. Stewart was clearly the best shooter during the game, however, hitting 6-of-8 shots from behind the arc to notch 21 points and lead all scorers. Rhodes grabbed his second double-double in a row with 15 points and 10 rebounds, and Gordon managed 17 points but shot 4-of-12, and dished out 6 assists.
Impact [Miss. State]: Having lost two in a row, will the Bulldogs be able to turn around their momentum? Still in the lead in the West, they seem to be heading downwards while Arkansas is on their way up. Three winnable games up next, and all are must-wins if the Dogs hope to win the division.
Impact [Tennessee]: With what could possibly be their toughest conference game out of the way, the Vols should be set for an overall SEC title.
Stat of the Game: MSU shooting better but attempting 16 fewer shots than Tennessee

Wednesday games, Saturday odds…

Overall: 118-24 (83.1%)
Vs. Spread: 52-39 (57.1%)
Overall (SEC): 25-6 (80.6%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 19-12 (61.3%)
East vs. West: East, 8-4

(10-10, 2-4) South Carolina [62] vs. (11-7, 2-3) Georgia [56]: Although South Carolina failed the “keys” test by hitting only 23.5% of thier long balls, the Gamecocks took care of the ball and played enough defense to defeat the Bulldogs at home. Fredrick took nearly double the shots of any other USC squad member, hitting 8-of-17 for 23 points to go along with 6 rebounds. Archie neared a double-double with 13 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey distributed 5 assists to only 1 turnover. Georgia featured pretty balanced and well-rounded scoring, led by Woodbury’s 15 points and 9 rebounds along with Bliss’ 12 points and 8 rebounds. Gaines suffered a strangely unproductive night, bringing home only 7 points on 2-of-8 shooting and 7 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: These are desperate times for both of these teams. Deafeating a weak Georgia team at home will mean little in the grand scheme of things, as a 7-3 mark and a win in the SEC Tournament will be needed for any post-season play.
Impact [Georgia]: Almost ditto. If the Bulldogs can’t win on the road against the only other argument for the East’s weakest team, wins will be hard to come by for the remainder of the season.
Stat of the Game: South Carolina attempting 9 more free throws (16-7)

(16-3, 3-3) #19 Ole Miss [74] vs. (17-4, 2-4) #23 Vanderbilt [58]: My first impression is shock that this wasn’t more of a 90-70 game, as the high tempo seemed to rattle both teams’ offense. The talent of Ole Miss, however, will rarely lose at home and the Commodores haven’t been producing on the road. The Rebels were led by Chris Warren’s 20 points and 5 rebounds along with Polynice’s 18 points on 8-of-13 shooting and 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Williams also notched his fifth double-double of the season with 10 points and rebounds apiece as Curtis had an uncharacteristic off-night, shooting only 1-of-6 from the floor. Foster recorded the second-straight disappointing outing in this game, following a 7-point outing at Florida with a 5-of-13 14-point performance at Ole Miss. Ogilvy continues to struggle in SEC play (as I suspected he would), claiming 10 points and 4 rebounds for the ‘Dores.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The big win will keep the Rebels from falling off of the national map completely, but half of the SEC season is nearly over and the team has a 2-game trail behind MSU in the West. The difference will come down to road games, where the Rebels have not been performing.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It seems as if Vanderbilt “is this year’s Clemson”, as they say, but it is easy to forget that the Commodores were on the receiving end of a royal boot in the backside by the SEC. After 6 road games in an 8-game span, the ‘Dores will need to win at least 1 or 2 and hold serve at home to put themselves back in the NCAA at-large discussion.
Stat of the Game: The SEC’s #1 offense in Vanderbilt shooting just 34.9% from the field

(12-7, 2-4) Auburn [80] vs. (8-12, 1-5) LSU [81]: The Bayou Bengals proved they have some bite left in them and actually won a road game. This was a tremendous upset if you take into account that LSU has been defeated by an average of 12.4 points per game in the SEC thus far, including a 7-point loss to Auburn at home along with the fact that Auburn was one game out of the Western Division title last season. Auburn’s lack of size simply had no options to guard Marchus Thornton or Anthony Randolph, and Brady took full advantage of it. Thornton easily recorded the biggest night of his young career as he brought home 38 points (more than any other SEC player in any game so far this season) on 14-of-23 shooting and Randolph added 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting. The rest of the LSU team combined for 22 points. Five Auburn players scored in double-figures in the loss, with Prowell pulling down a season-high 26 points on 9-of-12 shooting along with 7 rebounds and Tolbert/Reed/Barrett/Hargrove scoring between 11 and 15 each.
Impact [Auburn]: With the West seemingly less muddled than last year, this will almost certainly finalize the Tigers’ lack of competency in the division. Finish at or above .500 in the remaining 10 games, and Auburn might have an argument for the NIT.
Impact [LSU]: Although the team’s fate in the West has been sealed, the win will be one of few arguments LSU will have if in the discussion for an NIT bid (although that’s nearly impossible at this point).
Stat of the Game: Thornton/Randolph combining for 72.8% of LSU’s points

(15-5, 4-2) Arkansas [78] vs. (14-6, 5-1) Mississippi State [58]: I’m beginning to be all too accurate at predicting “hangovers”. After their 20-point victory at home over then 15th-ranked Ole Miss, State showed up to this one unfocused and unmotivated, turning the ball over 22 times. Weems had another big night from long range for the Razorbacks, shoting 5-of-10 from behind the arc for 22 points, and Beverly shot poorly – again – but still managed 19 points and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the season (and second in a row). Despite the 20-point win, Arkansas only shot 36.1% from the floor and let MSU shoot 40.8%. Gordon brought down 24 points for the third time in four games for State, shooting 8-of-16 but turning the ball over 6 times. Charles Rhodes claimed his eleventh-career double-double with 11 points and 15 rebounds.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win was more prevention than advantage, as the ‘Backs avoided falling three games back to MSU in the West and remain squarely in the division’s grasp, just one game back and 10 games to go.
Impact [Miss. State]: An expected loss, the result of this game will mean little long-term. However, will MSU’s biggest defeat of the season be a morale-crusher or motivator? We’ll soon see Saturday in State’s home game versus #6 Tennessee.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ +11 turnover margin

Saturday Odds

(11-7, 2-3) Georgia [#114] vs. (9-9, 3-2) Kentucky [#138]
Spread: Georgia by 1.5
Pick: Georgia – Georgia beat Arkansas by 13 at home, and Arkansas is clearly a better team than the Wildcats at this point.
—Keys: Look for this to be a low-scoring game. Whoever between Ramel Bradley and Sundiata Gaines can hit 20 should carry their team to the “W”.

(12-9, 1-5) Alabama [#100] vs. (8-12, 1-5) LSU [#189]
Spread: Alabama by 9.5
Pick: Alabama – LSU’s winning “streak” will be a short one, as the Tide’s talent and size will be far too much for LSU.
—Keys: Thornton and Randolph. Those two should be double-teamed every time they touch the ball, because they’re LSU’s only offense.

(15-5, 4-2) Arkansas [#41] vs. (18-3, 5-1) Florida [#43]
Spread: Arkansas by 4
Pick: Arkansas – As talented as Florida may be, they do not play enough defense to keep a road game like this close.
—Keys: If Arkansas can find their offense against Florida’s porous defense, this could be a blowout.

(17-4, 2-4) #23 Vanderbilt [#13] vs. (12-7, 2-4) Auburn [#150]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 11.5
Pick: Vanderbilt – Auburn has noone to guard Foster or Ogilvy. This one will be ugly.
—Keys: Auburn will need to shoot well over 50% if they hope to pull this one out.

(16-3, 3-3) #19 Ole Miss [#11] vs. (10-10, 2-4) South Carolina [#125]
Spread: Ole Miss by 10.5
Pick: Ole Miss – The Rebels have been playing well at home.
—Keys: This has the potential to be a very high-scoring game, with Ole Miss’ high tempo and USC’s three-point shooting.

(14-6, 5-1) Mississippi State [#56] vs. (18-2, 5-1) #7 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Even
Pick: Tennessee – The matchup seems to favor the Vols.
—Keys: The Vols’ high-pressure trap defense should force a lot of MSU turnovers. If the officials are calling a loose game, that would exagerate State’s problem. This is an interesting matchup of offense vs. defense.

Wednesday odds…

Overall: 114-23 (83.2%)
Vs. Spread: 48-38 (55.8%)
Overall (SEC): 21-5 (80.8%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 15-11 (57.7%)
East vs. West: East, 7-3

(9-10, 1-4) South Carolina [#128] vs. (11-6, 2-2) Georgia [#96]
Spread: South Carolina by 2.5
Pick: South Carolina – Although the Bulldogs have played relatively well on the road, the Gamecocks are better than their record suggests.
—Keys: USC’s three-point shooting – the Gamecocks rank 2nd in the league in 3PT%…if they’re falling, it could be a long night for Georgia.

(15-3, 2-3) #15 Ole Miss [#14] vs. (17-3, 2-3) #16 Vanderbilt [#13]
Spread: Ole Miss by 5.5
Pick: Ole Miss – Similar styles of play favors the home team, and Vanderbilt has been terrible on the road.
—Keys: Turnovers – the Rebels can force them and the ‘Dores tend to give a lot of them up on the road. Which formerly undefeated team will prove its worth against the other?

(12-6, 2-3) Auburn [#124] vs. (7-12, 0-5) LSU [#213]
Spread: Auburn by 5
Pick: Auburn – LSU is simply awful. Absolutely awful.
—Keys: An Auburn loss would put them solidly outside the race for the West, with a team already 5-0 in the division. Will the Aubies choke?

(14-5, 3-2) Arkansas [#46] vs. (14-5, 5-0) Mississippi State [#52]
Spread: Arkansas by 2
Pick: Arkansas – This was a tough pick, but with both teams relying heavily on their defense, the game should be close – and as my saying goes, close games favor the home team.
—Keys: Mississippi State’s young bench will need to play as well on the road as they have at home, and the Razorbacks will need to find a solid replacement for suspended Charles Thomas.