2009-10 SEC Basketball Conference Preview

For the second-straight season, the Southeastern Conference finished last amongst BCS leagues and sixth overall in RPI standings in 2008-09.

Just three teams made the NCAA Tournament, none of which made the Sweet Sixteen.

My, how a year can change everything.

While the nation was as experienced and talented as it had ever been, the SEC was struggling to reload and patiently waiting for its younger stars to grow into full-bodied threats.

That day has come for several league teams.

“There are eight teams in the league that return four starters,” Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl explained. ”So the league is going to be a lot better and part of the reason is because of returning players. That experience is going to put us in a position to not get too high when we win and not get too low when we lose, because this league is going to beat up on each other and I think the team that handles adversity and handles success the best is the team that is going to win the championship.”

Couldn’t say it better myself.

The most well-known example is Kentucky, who let an embattled Billy Gillispie go after just two seasons at the helm and its first NCAA absence in 15 years. In stepped Memphis’ John Calipari, and an outrageous recruiting class alongside. Returning Second-Team All-American Patrick Patterson plus adding three five-star along with two four-star recruits means high expectations.

High they are indeed. Many publications have ranked Kentucky second pre-season, and all have them in the Top 10. They have been picked overwhelmingly to win the SEC by the media, though much hinges on the NCAA’s verdict of John Wall’s elligibility. Wall, the nation’s top recruit, could make an immediate impact for the Wildcats at point guard.

“We are very big, athletic and fast,” Calipari said. ”We don’t shoot the ball well, and have a lot of room to grow.”

That loss of shooting comes in the form of Jodie Meeks, who bolted to the NBA after leading the team—and the SEC—in scoring. His 23.7 points per game was over 33 percent of Kentucky’s scoring last year and with his loss, the team loses more offensive production than any other team in the league.

Often joining the True Blue in top ten lists across the country are the Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols looked to bring back every single player on its roster before highly talented forward Emmanuel Negedu went down recently to heart trouble. His future with the team looks dim, though the squad’s outlook on this season remains steadfast.

Third-Team All-American Tyler Smith can quite literally do it all, and Kentucky’s amount of talent may be matched, or even exceeded, by the team in orange. The Vols are looking to prove the nation wrong and dethrone the Wildcats.

“As far as our team’s chemistry, we are going to learn from last year to play together,” Pearl stated.

Yet another national contender resides in Starkville, Mississippi. That town endured a wild off-season, as Fourth-Team All-American Jarvis Varnado—who should become the nation’s leading shot-blocker of all time this season—chose to return to the team. Then, a couple of high-profile recruits with elligibility issues signed on.

Sidney, who most consider the most talented player in this year’s class, hasn’t received his elligibility yet, former Top Five recruit John Riek has, though he will sit out nine games. Riek is 7′2″ with a much bigger wingspan and should immediately contribute.

The Bulldogs return every starter and lose a few back-ups, mostly to injury. This team is the prohibitive favorite to win a Western Division which it seemingly owns, and could make a run at the league title.

“It is the most experience I have had in a long time and we only have two seniors coming back,” MSU coach Rick Stansbury expressed. ”There is no question that we are better off at this point in the year than we were at this point last year.”

Four other SEC teams have been ranked in the nation’s Top 25 in various preseason selections this season.

Ole Miss has received some increased expectations for a few reasons. Several players, including Second-Team All-SEC point guard Chris Warren, return from season-ending injuries in 2007-08. Much-hyped sophomore Terrico White will look to continue his momentum from last season, as he was selected on the media’s First-Team All-SEC list.

South Carolina returns a great deal of power from last year’s SEC East co-champion team, including star point-guard and First-Team All-SEC selection Devan Downey.

Florida lost its heart and soul in Nick Calathes, but the amount of pure talent and depth on the team should lend itself to a competitive season.

The biggest darkhorse of the 2009-10 season, however, is Vanderbilt. The Commodores return nearly every player from last season and add five-star recruit John Jenkins. With perhaps the league’s most physically talented player in Second-Team All-SEC choice A.J. Ogilvy and two players in Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley who compete with the conference’s best at their respective positions, this team is set to compete for the overall SEC title.

No surprise, then, that the league coaches have high expectations for themselves and their competition.

“I am excited about where the league is,” Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said. ”I think from a balanced stand point it is as strong as it has been in quite some time and our marquis players are back. The top of the league is going to be where I believe we are going to have three, four, five teams in the top 25 week in and week out. I think there is a buzz in the league and rightfully so.”

 

ALABAMA

Last Year : 18-14, 7-9 (Nationally: #95 )
Postseason : None
Returning : 69.67% of scoring (6th), 66.02% of rebounding (10th)

The Crimson Tide return a great deal of talent, and a solid recruiting class. The team does, however, lose a lot of offense which could hurt, considering it ranked near the bottom of the league in points scored a year ago. If Grant can find some reliable shooters to complement talented big-man JaMychal Green, they could challenge Ole Miss for second place in the Western Division and a post-season appearance.

Prediction : (18-12, 7-9), No Postseason

 

ARKANSAS

Last Year : 14-16, 2-14 (Nationally: #126 )
Postseason : None
Returning : 84.63% of scoring (4th), 77.66% of rebounding (5th)

The Razorbacks will struggle again this year due only to their severe lack of depth. Washington, Clarke and Fortson each are among the most talented at their respective positions, but there simply isn’t much below them. Word is that Welsh is suspended indefintiely, and Sanchez is out indefinitely with foot issues. That leaves the team with four non-freshman players. The freshmen will need to step up in a big way, and expect at least Marshawn Powell too—he’s already impressing the coaches—if the team is to improve upon their utter collapse last season.

Prediction : (15-16, 6-10), No Postseason

 

AUBURN

Last Year : 24-12, 10-6 (Nationally: #55 )
Postseason : NIT Quarterfinals
Returning : 61.60% of scoring (10th), 49.33% of rebounding (11th)

Lebo saved his job a year ago by making the NIT Quarterfinals. This season, he won’t be so lucky. The Tigers lose three of the league’s most talented players, including highly-underrated big-man Korvotney Barber, and bring in a sub-par recruiting class. Expect the War Eagle to retain its spot at the bottom of the SEC West and be looking for a new head coach next off-season.

Prediction : (13-18, 3-13), No Postseason

 

FLORIDA

Last Year : 25-11, 9-7 (Nationally: #42 )
Postseason : NIT Quarterfinals
Returning : 63.63% of scoring (8th), 73.80% of rebounding (7th)

With the loss of Nick Calathes to the Greecian professional leagues, along with the graduation of Walter Hodge, a true team-leader and decision-maker needs to step up. Florida is always immensely talented, but Calathes was the heart and soul of this team and the Gators will miss him badly. If a player steps into that leadership role, Florida might be able to make a step up into the Big Dance.

Prediction : (20-10, 10-6), NCAA Tournament

 

GEORGIA

Last Year : 12-20, 3-13 (Nationally: #200 )
Postseason : No Postseason
Returning : 62.21% of scoring (9th), 68.92% of rebounding (9th)

Losing two starters—including the squad’s top scorer—is a hit for any basketball team. Moreso for one struggling like Georgia is. Former Nevada skipper Mark Fox inherits a bad situation in Athens with no immediate promise for improvement. This season is certainly one of rebuilding and restructuring, as anything but last place in the conference would be a miracle.

Prediction : (10-19, 3-13), No Postseason

 

KENTUCKY

Last Year : 22-14, 8-8 (Nationally: #52 )
Postseason : NIT Quarterfinals
Returning : 56.95% of scoring (11th), 75.76% of rebounding (6th)

Kentucky loses offensive juggernaut Jodie Meeks, and despite what the talking heads say, they will suffer because of it. The Blue bring in one of the greatest recruiting classes of all time, but none of those players are known for explosive offensive potential. The entire offense can’t rest on the shoulders of the frontcourt, much less only All-SEC star Patrick Patterson. This team will struggle at times offensively and is far too imbalanced to warrant their sky-high expectations. An NCAA Tournament bid is probable, a Final Four run is not.

Prediction : (21-9, 10-6), NCAA Tournament

 

LSU

Last Year : 27-8, 13-3 (Nationally: #43 )
Postseason : NCAA Second Round
Returning : 41.61% of scoring (12th), 36.17% of rebounding (12th)

Trent Johnson has proven he can coach (no word yet on his teams’ motivation, though). He will manage to upset some teams this season, but the Tigers lose six scholarship athletes and are going to be awfully young. This may be a reloading year for LSU, but don’t expect it to last very long. Don’t count me surprised if the Tigers manage to heavily overachieve and receive an invitation to the postseason.

Prediction : (13-14, 4-12), No Postseason

 

MISSISSIPPI STATE

Last Year : 23-13, 9-7 (Nationally: #61 )
Postseason : NCAA First Round
Returning : 90.85% of scoring (3rd), 86.53% of rebounding (4th)

The Bulldogs caught on fire toward the end of last season, winning their last six games (including an SEC Tournament title) before bowing out in the NCAA Tournament to Washington. The SEC West mainstay returns nearly every player and adds at least one former five-star recruit and is immensely talented and deep. This team could make some serious noise in March.

Prediction : (24-6, 12-4), NCAA Tournament

 

OLE MISS

Last Year : 16-15, 7-9 (Nationally: #97 )
Postseason : No Postseason
Returning : 65.93% of scoring (7th), 69.40% of rebounding (8th)

Andy Kennedy struggled with off-the-court issues last season and loses his top scorer, but return a talented core of players from injury. The Rebels join the Gators as one of the biggest question-marks in the league. If star point guard Chris Warren can return to form after a serious knee injury and the team can find enough front-court depth to suffice, it could challenge for an NCAA bid.

Prediction : (18-10, 8-8), NIT

 

SOUTH CAROLINA

Last Year : 21-10, 10-6 (Nationally: #68 )
Postseason : NIT First Round
Returning : 77.61% of scoring (5th), 87.94% of rebounding (3rd)

Darrin Horn underachieved last season in a weak SEC, despite a postseason bid and a SEC East co-title. With the sudden strengthening of the league, particularly the East, things just get harder from here. The Gamecocks don’t have the talent or depth to keep up in the East, and could struggle this year. An NCAA Tournament bid isn’t out of the question, but would be an impressive achievement.

Prediction : (16-12, 7-9), No Postseason

 

TENNESSEE

Last Year : 21-13, 10-6 (Nationally: #31 )
Postseason : NCAA First Round
Returning : 97.30% of scoring (1st), 94.50% of rebounding (1st)

The Volunteers look to be loaded for another chance at a Final Four run. There are, though, some weaknesses that became apparent last season. The team has little depth a the point-guard position, and struggles from outside the arc as well as on defense. That said, the Orange are one of the league’s most talented and deepest teams. If Pearl can find some shooters and get his team to play hard on both ends of the court, this could be a National Title contender.

Prediction : (24-4, 13-3), NCAA Tournament

 

VANDERBILT

Last Year : 19-12, 8-8 (Nationally: #77 )
Postseason : No Postseason
Returning : 92.58% of scoring (2nd), 92.25% of rebounding (2nd)

If you’re looking for an SEC dark-horse, look no further. The Commodores return every important piece of their squad, including outstandingly talented big-man A.J. Ogilvy. Added to the mix is five-star recruit John Jenkins, who will add some firepower to the team’s offense. With this amount of talent and experience, expect the ‘Dores to challenge for the SEC and push its way well into March.

Prediction : (22-6, 12-4), NCAA Tournament

 

Now, as for the conference predictions…

 

SEC EAST

1. Tennessee – 24-4, 13-3

2. Vanderbilt – 22-6, 12-4

t3. Kentucky – 21-9, 10-6

t3. Florida – 20-10, 10-6

5. South Carolina – 16-12, 7-9

6. Georgia – 10-19, 3-13

 

SEC WEST

1. Mississippi State – 24-6, 12-4

2. Ole Miss – 18-10, 8-8

3. Alabama – 18-12, 7-9

4. Arkansas – 15-16, 6-10

5. LSU – 13-14, 4-12

6. Auburn – 13-18, 3-13

 

And on to the 2009-10 SEC Pre-Season Awards…

 

SEC Pre-Season Awards

SEC Player of the Year: Jarvis Varnado (Mississippi State)

While this may be an unpopular pick, no one in the conference alters the game as much as Varnado. His offense is underrated, as he shoots 54.9 percent from the floor as it is, and should only increase this season. His rebounding is nearly untouched in the league, and he should break the national career blocking record this season.

SEC Coach of the Year: Kevin Stallings (Vanderbilt)

The Commodores enter the season with not nearly as much hype as they deserve. Expect them to be one of the toughest teams in the league and challenge for an Elite Eight spot when it’s all said and done.

SEC Freshman of the Year: John Wall (Kentucky)

Assuming he becomes elligible to play, Wall should have an immediate impact for Kentucky. The Wildcats desperately need his decision-making and ball-handling to become competitive once again.

All-SEC First Team

Jarvis Varnado (Mississippi State)
Patrick Patterson (Kentucky)
Tyler Smith (Tennessee)
A.J. Ogilvy (Vanderbilt)
Chris Warren (Ole Miss)

All-SEC Second-Team

Michael Washington (Arkansas)
Rotnei Clarke (Arkansas)
Tasmin Mitchell (LSU)
Wayne Chism (Tennessee)
Alex Tyus (Florida)

 

Non-Conference Viewing Guide

Arkansas vs. Louisville (Tue, Nov. 17)
Florida vs. Michigan St. (Fri, Nov. 27)
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri (Wed, Dec. 2)
Kentucky vs. North Carolina (Sat, Dec. 5)
South Carolina @ Clemson (Sun, Dec. 6)
Vanderbilt vs. Illinois (Tues, Dec. 8)
Kentucky vs. UConn (Wed, Dec. 9)
Florida vs. Syracuse (Thu, Dec. 10)
Mississippi St. vs. UCLA (Sat, Dec. 12)
Alabama vs. Purdue (Sat, Dec. 12)
Auburn @ Florida St. (Thu, Dec. 17)
LSU @ Washington St. (Tue, Dec. 22)
Ole Miss @ West Virginia (Wed, Dec. 23)
LSU @ Xavier (Tue, Dec. 29)
South Carolina @ Boston College (Wed, Dec. 30)
Tennessee @ Memphis (Thu, Dec. 31)
Georgia @ Missouri (Sat, Jan. 2)
South Carolina vs. Baylor (Sat, Jan. 2)
Kentucky vs. Louisville (Sat, Jan. 2)
Mississippi St. @ Western Kentucky (Mon, Jan. 4)
Arkansas vs. Texas (Tue, Jan. 5)
Tennessee vs. Kansas (Sun, Jan. 10)
Florida vs. Xavier (Sat, Feb. 13)

Absolute disaster…

While I’m following up this post with some actual game-by-game breakdowns, I thought I would express my utter shock and horror at this weekend’s games in the SEC. Apparently the day has come which SEC teams that can actually beat teams such as VMI, Loyola Chicago, or Mercer by 20 points as expected are the conference’s elite, while teams that were supposed to rank among the SEC’s top 4 or 5 are losing those games.

To compound the problem, off-the-court issues are plaguing teams across the league as well. Georgia’s mass losses are well documented, Jai Lucas left Florida, Ole Miss has lost two valuable guards and Mississippi State is missing two players two injury.

Is this bad fortune a case of bad luck, simply a symptom of a reloading conference, or is the SEC sliding against the nation’s best?

Discuss.

2008-09 Preseason SEC Awards

So, here we go – my complete run-down of the season’s awards heading into the 2008-09 season.

SEC COACH OF THE YEAR:   BILLY DONOVAN (FLORIDA)

While both South Carolina and LSU should take major steps upwards this season with an almost entire roster returning, both programs will be welcoming in new coaches, and that always invites unpredictable results. Out of returning coaches, Donovan has the best situation on his hands with many players returning and an incredible recruiting class.

Donovan is 285-115 (.713) at Florida, which ranks as the second-highest percentage in the SEC behind Tennessee’s Bruce Pearl. Having recently won back-to-back national championships in 2005-07, Donovan has more than proven his ability as a head coach.

Donovan returns nearly every starter, including co-freshman of the year Nick Calathes, the league’s best overall point guard. With the cast and crew returning in 2008-09, along with Donovan at the helm, the Gators could shock the nation and make a surprise return to the Final Four next March.

SEC PLAYER OF THE YEAR:   A.J. OGILVY (VANDERBILT)

When I’m wrong, I go all out. A year ago, I was resisting the Ogilvy bandwagon that had built up steam amongst the national media. I held the belief that the Australian would struggle with SEC-caliber competition.

I was wrong.

Ogilvy easily ranked, as noted previously in the summer, as the most efficient player in the conference last season – as a freshman. He averaged over 17ppg despite playing alongside the league’s most prolific scorer in Shan Foster, while also chipping in almost 7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Without Foster on the roster, I would suppose that Ogilvy’s scoring will go somewhat higher as the Commodores will rely even more heavily upon the sophomore.

SEC FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR:   SCOTTY HOPSON (TENNESSEE)

Hopson comes into the Vol program as the highest-ranked freshman in the SEC per the media outlets. The Hopkinsville, Kentucky native is accurately named, with a huge leaping ability, and is a lethal scorer. Although Hopson will likely fill the shooting guard spot, he’s equally adept at small forward, known for his mid-range jumper. Hopson should be a definite one-and-done.

SEC DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR:   JARVIS VARNADO (MISSISSIPPI STATE)

This was as easy a selection as I’ve made in quite some time. Varnado led the nation in blocks per game a season ago at 4.6 per contest, while tying Shaquille O’Neal’s SEC single-season record in swats per outing. Varnado helped MSU rank second in the nation in both field goal percentage defense and blocks per game, and currently ranks as State’s highest field-goal-percentage shooter of all time. Look for Varnado to step up offensively in the wake of Rhodes’ graduation, and challenge for SEC Player of the Year honors.

ALL-SEC FIRST TEAM

A.J. Ogilvy (Vanderbilt – Center – Sophomore – 17.0ppg, 6.7rpg, 1.4bpg) – Ogilvy is a tremendously talented big-man who specializes in offense. He has a soft touch and uses his size (6′11″, 250lb) to his advantage defensively.

Nick Calathes (Florida – Point Guard – Sophomore – 15.3ppg, 5.2rpg, 6.1apg) – Calathes is in the running for SEC Player of the Year because of his versatility. He’s extremely efficient with the basketball and is one of the best passers the league has ever seen. His long-range shot is also solid, and his rebounding is phenomenal for his position.

Marcus Thornton (LSU – Shooting Guard – Senior – 19.6ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.3 spg) -Thornton returns as the league’s leading scorer, and its second-best three-point shooter. This kid is dynamic and explosive, with a touch for the basket only barely overshadowed a season ago by Vanderbilt’s Foster.

Tyler Smith (Tennessee – Power Forward – Junior – 13.6ppg, 6.7rpg, 3.3apg) – Smith was the league’s most versatile big man last year, shooting an impressive 37.8% from long range, 53.6% from the floor, and is among the SEC’s elite rebounders.

Patrick Patterson (Kentucky – Power Forward – Sophomore – 16.4ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.2bpg) – Patterson was named the SEC’s co-freshman of the year for 2007-08 after a tremendous season, providing a much-needed hole-stopper down low for the Wildcats. Patterson is among the league’s most reliable post players, producing big numbers nearly every single game.

Jarvis Varnado (Mississippi State – Center – Junior – 7.9ppg, 7.8rpg, 4.6bpg) – Producing ridiculous block numbers last year, including two consecutive 10-block performances, Varnado led the nation in swats per game last season. He stands as MSU’s all-time most efficient score, shooting over 60% in his career, and returns as the league’s leading rebounder. Expect Varnado’s offensive production to increase heavily with his minutes, and the big man to challenge for SEC Player of the Year.

Devan Downey (South Carolina – Point Guard – Junior – 18.4ppg, 5.3apg, 3.2spg) – Downey is a tremendously talented guard stuck in an underperforming program. Downey is the league’s second-leading returning scorer and still found the time and ability to hand out over 5 assists per game. Downey – possibly the SEC’s best defending guard – should have a huge season along with his fellow Gamecocks this year.

Chris Warren (Ole Miss – Point Guard – Sophomore – 15.8ppg, 4.4apg, 1.0spg) – Warren provided the Rebels, who approached last season with dampened expectations, a huge boost of energy both from his ability to find open lanes and hit treys when the formations fell apart. Warren is a special talent and has a bright future in Oxford.

ALL-SEC SECOND TEAM

Ronald Steele (Alabama – Point Guard – Senior – Redshirted) – There is no other player in the SEC that begs more questions than Ronald Steele does. When healthy, Steele is a tremendous asset in his maturity and decision-making. However, after two knee surgeries, doubts remain about his ability to return to form.

Alonzo Gee (Alabama – Small Forward – Senior – 14.5ppg, 6.8rpg, 1.5spg) – Gee stands as the SEC’s most energetic player, suffocating the ball while on the court on both offense and defense. While this certainly has its advantages, as it’s nearly impossible to guard his athleticism, it also brings turnovers and ball-hogging.

Dominique Archie (South Carolina – Power forward – Junior – 10.6ppg, 5.7rpg, 1.0spg) -Archie is poised for a breakout season alongside fellow Gamecock Mike Holmes, while Archie specializes in his athleticism on defense. Archie also provides a difficult matchup on offense, as he shoots a solid 34.3% from long range.

Chris Johnson (LSU – Center – Senior – 11.6ppg, 6.6rpg, 2.6bpg) – Johnson, although very lanky at just 210lbs at 6′11″, is dangerously potent defensively, ranking (a distant) second in the league last season. He does well what a big man should, which is score from under the basket and grab rebounds.

Dan Werner (Florida - Power Forward – Junior – 9.1ppg, 6.4rpg, 2.4apg) – Werner struggled to replace Joakim Noah’s hole alongside talented big-man Marreese Speights last season, but still rebounded and defended very well in the paint. Look for Werner to have a breakout season for the Gators in 2008-09.

Wayne Chism (Tennessee – Center – Junior – 9.9ppg, 5.8rpg, 1.3bpg) – Chism pales in the shadow of the team’s star Tyler Smith, but still serves his duty as an adept scorer and a potentially explosive big-man. Unfortunately, Chism will need to produce on a more consistent basis if he hopes to jump to first-team.

Korvotney Barber (Auburn – Power Forward – Senior – 13.8ppg, 6.9rpg, 72.0% FG) – Barber has about as much potential as any player in the league, but broke his hand early last season and was benched. Barber was leading the nation in field-goal percentage before the incident, and could be a huge anchor for the Tigers this year if he can stay healthy.

ALL-SEC FRESHMAN TEAM

Scotty Hopson (#5 nationally – Tennessee – Shooting Guard – 6′5″, 185lbs – Other offers from Texas, Cincinatti, Kentucky, Louisville, Mississippi State)

DeAndre Liggins (#28 nationally – Kentucky – Point Guard – 6′5″, 190lbs – Other offers from Memphis, Illinois, Kansas)

Courtney Fortson (#60 nationally – Arkansas – Point Guard – 5′10″, 175lbs – Other offers from Florida State, Tennessee, Kentucky)

Jamychal Green (#21 nationally – Alabama – Power Forward – 6′8″, 225lbs – Other offers from Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Marquette, Ole Miss, Virginia)

Dee Bost (#83 nationally – Mississippi State – Point Guard – 6′2″, 170lbs – Other offers from Virginia, High Point, Cincinatti, Florida State, Miami)

Kenny Kadji (#27 nationally – Florida – Center – 6′10″, 240lbs – Other offers from Florida State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, Connecticut)

Howard Thompkins (#30 nationally – Georgia – Power Forward – 6′8″, 225lbs – Other offers from Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Florida, Florida State)

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

East

1. Tennessee   (25-5, 13-3)
2. Florida    (25-5, 12-4)
3. Kentucky   (22-8, 11-5)
4. Vanderbilt   (24-6, 9-7)
5. South Carolina   (19-10, 8-8)
6. Georgia   (15-13, 5-11)

West

t1. Alabama   (18-11, 8-8)
t1. LSU   (21-10, 8-8)
t1. Mississippi State   (21-10, 8-8)
4. Ole Miss   (17-13, 7-9)
5. Arkansas   (14-15, 5-11)
6. Auburn   (14-17, 3-13)

Please feel free to post comments and questions!!!!!

SEC Schedules: Auburn

vs. Missouri State
vs. Mercer
vs. George Washington
vs. Bethune-Cookman
vs. Dayton – TBA (Hoffman Estates, Illinois)
vs. Northern Iowa – TBA (Hoffman Estates, Illinois)
@ Xavier
vs. Louisiana-Monroe
vs. Tuskegee
@ Virginia
vs. Alabama State
vs. Alabama A&M
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
vs. Tulane
vs. Texas-Panamerican
———-
@ South Carolina
vs. Florida
@ Kentucky
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Georgia
vs. Tennessee

Either Lebo has more confidence in his team than most of us do, or this is a bad schedule for an SEC bottom-dweller. Even the first game is difficult, followed closely by a challenging mid-season tournament and then a trip to powerful Xavier. A trip to ACC-member Virginia won’t be easy either, as both squads are in similar positions in their respective conferences most years.

The SEC schedule will also be a mountain to climb this year for the Tigers, as very few games look winnable. Both Florida and Tennessee are at home, and the weaker (in comparison to others in the East) squads – South Carolina and Georgia – are both on the road. I see no way Lebo doesn’t lose his job after this season.

SEC Tournament Break-Down

Now that the seeds are set and the Southeastern Conference’s 49th all-time league tournament is set to begin this Thursday, March 13th, here is a breakdown of each matchup, predictions for their outcomes, and the times they will be playing. The number following the “#” is that squad’s seeding in their division, and the numeral in brackets is the team’s RPI, per www.kenpom.com.

All SEC Tournament games except for the Final Round will be televised by Raycom Sports, and the Final Round will be televised nationally by CBS.

1st Round

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #5: 13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [#139] vs. (West #4: 13-17, 6-10) LSU [#159]

Offense: Advantage - South Carolina: The Gamecocks don’t shoot particularly well overall, but put up a ton of shots by forcing turnovers. USC is also lethal from three, where they rank third in the conference at 36.7% as a team. The Tigers rank near the bottom of the conference in points per game and field-goal percentage.

Defense: Advantage – LSU: The Tigers’ defense has been above average all year, built around the blocking prowess of both Johnson and Randolph. LSU ranks second in the conference in blocks per game and fourth in field-goal percentage defense, but tend to allow a lot of opponent attempts by turning the ball over and missing offensive rebounding opportunities.

Playmakers: Advantage – LSU: Both teams are short on depth, but the Tigers seem to be more talented overall with All-SEC Freshman candidate Anthony Randolph inside who ranks 3rd in the conference in both rebounding and blocks. Marcus Thornton recently put up 38 points on Mississippi State and has proven to be a lethal all-around scorer, ranking 2nd in the conference in scoring with 19.7 points per game and in the top 15 with a 43.6% field goal percentage. Chris Johnson has proven to be formidable inside as well, ranking 2nd in blocking. The main playmaker for USC is without a doubt Rivals.com First-Team All-SEC Devan Downey, who’s quickness and talented ball-handling is hard to keep from driving the basket. Downey ranks 2nd in the conference in scoring, but doesn’t take the best-advaised shots as he doesn’t rank in the top 15 field-goal percentages. Downey also takes care of the ball well, handing out 5.2 assists to just 2.8 turnovers, ranking 4th in that category.

Depth: Advantage – South Carolina: Although neither team is particularly strong in this area, USC regularly rotates 8 men and has 2 more backups while the Tigers rotate 8 men but have just 1 more usable backup.

Intangibles: Advantage – LSU: Both teams have some things going for them. While Dave Odom will be coaching in his final SEC Tournament that has seen Odom receive his fair share of success, the Tigers have lifted the Brady “weight” off of their shoulders and have been playing inspired basketball, winning 4 of their last 5. Butch Pierre has done a great job at reorganizing the Tigers’ rotation off the bench and creating more offense.

Bottom Line: This will be a game dominated by two or three players with a load of role-players mixed in. The outcome will likely be dictated by USC’s Holmes and LSU’s Randolph inside and USC’s Downey and LSU’s Thornton from the outside. Whichever team can keep the other’s main scorer out of the paint will win the game, although the Tigers will need to keep a handle on their turnovers also.

Prediction: LSU wins, 70-64: The Tigers’ Randolph will prove to be the difference-maker, scoring almost at will inside the paint while Downey will still manage to put up more than 20 points. A close game favors LSU, who leads the conference in free-throw shooting percentage.

3:15 PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #6: 14-15, 4-12) Auburn [#154] vs. (East #3: 25-6, 10-6) Vanderbilt [#10]

Offense: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores are one of the most potent offenses in the conference, averaging 80.4 points per game and leading the conference in three-point percentage at 40.2%. The Tigers rank near the bottom in almost every offensive category.

Defense: Advantage – Vanderbilt: Neither team is known for their defense, but the Tigers have been horrid. Auburn’s field-goal percentage defense is nearly 3% worse than any other SEC team’s, although Vanderbilt’s scoring defense is slightly worse.

Playmakers: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores have the likely SEC Player of the Year in Shan Foster and SEC Freshman of the Year candidate AJ Ogilvy. Foster leads the conference in scoring with 20.6 points per game and 9th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Ogilvy has proven to be a threat offensively as well, leading SEC freshman with 16.7 points per game and 3rd among SEC freshman with 6.8 rebounds per game. Auburn’s Quantez Robertson is one of the most underrated point guards, handing out 4.2 assists to just 1.8 turnovers per game, ranking 2nd in the conference in that category.

Depth: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The Commodores have recruited well, and it shows. The ‘Dores regularly rotate 10 men into play, with 1 more off the bench while Auburn rotates 8 with 1 off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage – Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores are currently ranked 17th in the nation and are a popular pick for the Sweet 16. Morale is low in Auburn, as the Tigers haven’t seen the postseason in quite some time.

Bottom Line: This game will be full of offense, as neither team plays much defense. An offensive game easily favors Vanderbilt, as the Commodores have been scoring nearly at will all season long. With Auburn’s severe lack of talent and depth, this game could get ugly.

Prediction: Vanderbilt wins, 94-75: At least 9 or 10 players will get on the scoreboard for Vanderbilt, as this game becomes a route early on. Because of a lesser need for him, Foster doesn’t have a remarkable game, scoring around 15 points.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #5: 16-15, 5-11) Alabama [#117] vs. (East #4: 21-10, 8-8) Florida [#65]

Offense: Advantage – Florida: The Gators are loaded with offensively-talented freshman, ranking 4th in the conference in scoring average and lead the conference in field-goal percentage. The Tide rank near the middle of the conference in all offensive categories.

Defense: Advantage – Alabama: These two teams are possibly the worst defensive teams in the conference, but the Tide have a slight edge in percentages and a sizeable lead in blocks/steals per game. Richard Hendrix probably gives this advantage to Alabama on his own.

Playmakers: Advantage – Alabama: Richard Hendrix, as you all know by now, is possibly my favorite SEC player. He’s practically unstoppable under the rim, even against arguably the nation’s best defender in MSU’s Jarvis Varnado. Hendrix ranks 4th in the conference in scoring, 1st in rebounding (the only SEC player to average a double-double), 3rd in field-goal percentage, and 5th in blocking. Hendrix is a beast, and possibly the best all-around player in the conference. ‘Bama’s Riley is also underestimated, ranking 2nd in the conference in three-point shooting, while Gee is an unpredictable but dynamic play-maker. Florida has their share of talent as well, as freshman Nick Calathes easily leads the conference in assists per game with 6.1, and ranks 3rd in assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s a scoring point, though, leading his team in scoring with 15.9 points per game. Speights can also dominate a game inside, ranking 4th in rebounding and 2nd in field-goal percentage.

Depth: Advantage – Alabama: While both teams are relatively deep, Florida relies more on its talented youth while the Tide have some more experienced players and cycle more men into the game. 9 Bama players regularly see playing time with 2 usable backups, while 9 Gators see common playing time but none are usable off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage – Florida: The Gators will be playing for their NCAA lives and are coached by possibly the SEC’s best coach, while the Tide are struggling to even reach the NIT and have fell short of already-low expectations.

Bottom Line: This is yet another game that will see very little defense and be controlled by offense. Alabama simply won’t have the offense to keep up with the potent Gators, although Hendrix will likely have a huge game against Speights inside. The game will be close, but Alabam’s free throw shooting will cost them the game.

Prediction: Florida wins, 80-72: The game will come down to the final minute, as Alabama will miss key free throws to hand Florida the game.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(East #6: 13-16, 4-12) Georgia [#152] vs. (West #3: 21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [#42]

Offense: Advantage – Ole Miss: The Bulldogs’ offense is the most anemic in the conference, scoring just 67.8 points per game. Conversely, the Rebels have proven to execute an efficient offense, ranking third in the conference in scoring, although the Rebs rank 9th in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Georgia – Both teams play decent defense, but the Bulldogs’ scoring defense gives them the edge, as they rank 4th in the conference with 67.2 points per outing. All of the remaining statistics are very similar.

Playmakers: Advantage – Ole Miss: Neither team is overloaded with talent, but the Rebels have a clear advantage with SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Chris Warren and vastly overlooked big-man Dwayne Curtis on the interior. Warren has tremendous speed but still has work to do on his decision-making skills, leading the team in scoring but shooting just 39.6% from the field and turning the ball over nearly 3 times a game. Curtis ranks 2nd in the conference with an impressive 9.3 rebounds per game and leads the SEC in field-goal percentage, shooting 64.6% on the season. For Georgia, Sundiata Gaines is the key to the team’s offense, putting up over 12 attempts per game, grabbing 6.3 rebounds per game, and ranking 6th in the conference with 4.2 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game. Gaines’ main drawback is free-throw shooting, as he hits just 57.3% of his shots from the charity stripe.

Depth: Advantage – Ole Miss: Both teams have some talent on the bench, but the Rebels have more, as both cycle in 10 men regularly with 1 legitimate backup.

Intangibles: Advantage – Ole Miss: The Rebels absolutely must win this game to reach the NCAA, and they know it. Felton has struggled with off-the-court issues, and the Rebels simply have more to play for.

Bottom Line: When it comes to crunch time, Georgia won’t have the offense to keep up with the Rebels. Curtis should have a monster game, scoring 15-20+ points and 10+ rebounds, as Bliss is not necessarily a threat defensively.

Prediction: Ole Miss wins, 76-67: This game shouldn’t be as close as the score looks, as the Rebels should take control in the second half as the Bulldogs lose any offensive momentum they may have created in the first.

2nd Round

Since the second round depends on who wins in the first, here is a breakdown of each squad who received a bye, both strengths and weaknesses.

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #1: 28-3, 14-2) Tennessee [#1] vs. (Winner of [E5] South Carolina vs. [W4] LSU)

Offense: The Vols have boasted a tremendously potent offense from the very beginning of the season, averaging a league-leading 82.5 points per game. Surprisingly, the Vols rank just 8th in field-goal perentage and 5th from behind the arc, but utilize great offensive rebounding (2nd) and turnover-forcing (1st) to attempt 236 more shots from the floor than their opponents. The squad also shares the ball remarkably well, averaging over 18 assists per game to lead the SEC in that category as well.

Defense: Although the common conception is that a great speed-based offense like Tennessee lacks on defense, this is very untrue for the Vols. The team’s scoring defense ranks a decent 6th, but the key is three-point defense as the team leads the conference quite comfortably in that category, with a 30.5% mark. Forced turnovers are the key to Tennessee’s high-intensity, high-pressure defense, which leads into easy buckets.

Playmakers: The Volunteers are very talented and well-balanced, as despite leading the league in scoring as a team no player averages more than 16 points per game. Chris Lofton, a preseason All-American selection, is that 16ppg scorer, although he manages those points on 11.9 attempts per game as opposed to percentages, as his shooting percentage from the floor doesn’t rank in the top 15 in the conference. Lofton does, however, lead the SEC in free-throw percentage shooting, hitting 84.2% of his attempts. Tyler Smith has claimed his mark as one of the best big-men in the conference, leading his team in rebounding and ranking 8th in the conference in shooting percentage. JuJuan Smith is extremely dynamic but sometimes out of control, though he shoots a respectable 45.2% from the floor. JuJuan also ranks 5th in the SEC in steals per game.

Depth: Tennessee is one of the deepest teams in the conference, with 11 players seeing consistent playing time and 1 other seeing some amount of time off the bench.

Intangibles: Everything is going right for one fo the nation’s top teams, with two or three potential All-SEC First Teamers and SEC Coach of the Year candidate. A Final Four seems a distcint possibility, as does bringing home the Southeastern Conference’s third-straight men’s basketball national title.

Prediction: The Vols have a great chance at winning the conference tournament and going on to an NCAA Tournament 1-seed.

3:15PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #2: 20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [#43] vs. (Winner of [W6] Auburn vs. [E3] Vanderbilt)

Offense: Arkansas is a defense-oriented team who likes to slow the ball down. The team’s scoring margin is mediocre at best, although the percentages are good as most of the team’s scoring comes from inside the paint. The team doesn’t share the ball exceptionally well, and does not shoot well from three as a whole.

Defense: The Razorbacks have been battling MSU for the top spot defensively all season, as the team is loaded with quality big-men. Arkansas ranks 3rd in scoring defense, field-goal percentage defense, and three-point defense as well as blocks per game.

Playmakers: Sonny Weems is the team’s shooting specialist, leading the squad in scoring with 14.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Reigning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly is the conference’s 3rd-most efficient three-point shooter at 40.1%, and Steven Hill ranks 4th in blocks per game. This team doesn’t have many stand-outs, as the effort is usually well-balanced.

Depth: Arkansas is also very deep, as 10 players see regular playing time but no others come off the bench.

Intangibles: The ‘Backs are another team looking to ensure their NCAA hopes, and a win against a very talented Vanderbilt team would do it. Arkansas has lost 5 of their last 8, however, and this will be Pelphrey’s first SEC Tournament. How will the seniors respond in their last SEC Tournament?

Prediction: The Razorbacks should be able to defeat the Commodores, as Vanderbilt hasn’t been able to hit their threes away from home. The ‘Backs would likely fall hard to the Volunteers, however.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #1: 21-9, 12-4) Mississippi State [#38] vs. (Winner of [W5] Alabama vs. [E4] Florida)

Offense: While MSU is widely known to be a very talented team defensively, the squad’s offensive presence has been lost in the shuffle. Although State’s scoring offense ranks just 6th, the team’s field-goal percentage ranks 3rd. The Bulldogs are not adept at three-point shooting, however, nor sharing the ball – ranking 9th and 8th in those categories, respectively. In SEC play, MSU leads the conference in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Well-known at this point, Mississippi State’s field-goal percentage defense ranks atop the SEC and 2nd in the country behind Georgetown, at 36.9%. Absolutely suffocating on defense, the team also ranks 2nd in three-point defense, 1st in scoring defense, and 1st in blocks per game (and also 2nd in the NCAA in that category, behind Connecticut). State’s length and athleticism makes every point scored against them difficult.

Playmakers: The Bulldogs have arguably the most talented starting 5 in the conference, with SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon leading the way. Charles Rhodes is a legitimate All-SEC First-Teamer, Jarvis Varnado leads the nation in blocks per game and is set to challenge Shaq’s all-time SEC blocks record as a sophomore, and both Stewart and Hansbrough are able to put up 20+ points on any given night. Gordon ranks 5th in the conference in scoring while Rhodes ranks 7th, while Varnado ranks 5th in rebounds and Rhodes ranks 6th. Rhodes is a very efficient shooter, even with face to the basket, ranking 6th in the conference in shooting percentage, while Gordon ranks 3rd in assists per game. Hansbrough also ranks in the top 10 in three-point percentage and 3-pointers made per game. This team is very well-balanced, with an offensive big-man, defensive big-man, penetrating guard, and two shooters.

Depth: The Bulldogs have lots of depth on the bench, with a regular rotation cycle of 10 players and 1 off the bench.

Intangibles: State has been on the brink of being ranked throughout the season, and have won 7 of their last 9. The ‘Dawgs seem to work well under the “underdog” mentality, and have the balance and depth to make a run in both postseason tournaments.

Prediction: State hasn’t lost a game to either of their potential second-round matchups, and have only dropped one game out of the total potential matchups in the semifinal round. State seems to be a good bet for the SEC Tournament finals, where a rematch with Tennessee should be an exciting game – although I’d pick the Vols to take that game, as UT won in Starkville in the teams’ previous matchup.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(West #2: 18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [#49] vs. (Winner of [E6] Georgia vs. [W3] Ole Miss)

Offense: Offense hasn’t been a specialty for the Wildcats, as the team ranks 10th in scoring offense for the season in the conference. The slow-paced offense shoots well, though, ranking 3rd in field-goal percentage and 2nd from behind the arc. The problem is rebounding, as the ‘Cats haven’t been able to take many shots from the floor and ranking last in turnover margin.

Defense: The Wildcat defense is a typical hard-nosed Kentucky defense, ranking 2nd in scoring defense allowed and field-goal percentage defense. What the team doesn’t do, however, is force turnovers very well, which when combined with poor ball-handling results in easy buckets for the opponent.

Playmakers: Three Wildcats score 16 points a game or more, although surprisingly only one of them has really captured the media’s attention. That player is SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson, who is no longer with the team after a fractured foot, and won’t be back until next season. Stevenson has handled the loss well, stepping up to record a couple of double-doubles in his absence. The other two top scorers are Crawford and Bradley, who are a couple of the more underestimated players in the league. Crawford ranks 6th in the conference in scoring and 10th in field-goal perecentage, while Bradley ranks 2nd in free-throw percentage.

Depth: Injuries have plagued the Wildcats, who now cycle just 8 men regularly and sub 3 others.

Intangibles: Survival is the key word here, as the Wildcats absolutely must win at least one game in the conference tournament to keep their NCAA hopes alive. The team’s resurgence has been impressive, and the squad seems to be handling the loss of Patterson quite well. Needless to say, the Wildcats have had an immense amount of success in their history in Atlanta.

Prediction: UK should be able to handle either Georgia or Ole Miss, although the Rebels could be a potential mismatch. Next up would likely be Mississippi State, who the Wildcats particularly do not match up well against.

Final Wirth Value

Now that regular-season play has completed, this will be the final Wirth Value until next season. Until then, it bids you farewell…

Offense

1. Tennessee (51.09, +1)
2. Vanderbilt (49.93, -1)
3. Florida (45.60, NC)
4. Ole Miss (37.80, NC)
5. Arkansas (34.71, NC)
6. Miss. State (33.69, +1)
7. Kentucky (32.34, +1)
8. Alabama (30.95, -2)
9. South Carolina (21.98, NC)
10. Auburn (17.34, NC)
11. LSU (13.61, +1)
12. Georgia (13.55, -1)

Defense

1. Miss. State (50.90, NC)
2. Arkansas (46.42, +1)
3. Kentucky (45.48, -1)
4. Tennessee (42.01, NC)
5. Georgia (30.56, NC)
6. Ole Miss (29.59, NC)
7. LSU (27.35, NC)
8. Vanderbilt (22.98, +1)
9. Alabama (21.69, +2)
10. Florida (21.33, -2)
11. South Carolina (17.45, -1)
12. Auburn (13.00, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (135.96, NC)
—————————–
2. Miss. State (105.76, NC)
3. Arkansas (101.78, +3)
4. Ole Miss (101.09, +1)
5. Vanderbilt (100.01, -2)
6. Florida (99.33, -2)
—————————-
7. Kentucky (83.88, NC)
—————————-
8. Alabama (75.00, NC)
—————————-
9. South Carolina (56.88, NC)
10. Georgia (51.65, NC)
11. LSU (45.50, +1)
12. Auburn (44.11, -1)

—The categories stay pretty much the same this week, as Tennessee is clearly the most efficient SEC team, followed by the “NCAA Bunch”, although Florida and Ole Miss seem to be the weakest links of the group as Mississippi State seems to be pulling away with second.

—Kentucky’s numbers fell a small bit from last week, but they remain about 17 points shy of that magical 100 area where the SEC NCAA locks seem to be hovering. The question remains: Will the conference record offset the non-conference record enough?

—Alabama is all alone in the potential NIT at-large bids without a chance for an NCAA at-large bid.

—The remaining teams have packed it up and called it a year, barring miracle runs in the SEC Tournament.

—Note of interest: Alabama fell two offensively but rose two defensively after losing to LSU but then defeating #16 Vanderbilt.

[delayed] Wirth Value: Week Thirteen

Thanks for your patience. 

Offense

1. Tennessee (52.10, +1)
2. Vanderbilt (49.63, -1)
3. Florida (48.37, NC)
4. Ole Miss (43.13, NC)
5. Alabama (35.08, NC)
6. Arkansas (31.45, NC)
7. Kentucky (28.73, NC)
8. South Carolina (26.21, +1)
9. Miss. State (23.86, -1)
10. Auburn (20.35, NC)
11. Georgia (14.42, NC)
12. LSU (11.77, NC)

Defense

1. Arkansas (51.72, +1)
2. Miss. State (49.43, -1)
3. Georgia (38.81, NC)
4. Kentucky (37.78, NC)
5. Tennessee (33.75, NC)
6. Florida (29.46, NC)
7. South Carolina (25.53, +2)
8. Ole Miss (24.71, -1)
9. LSU (23.29, NC)
10. Vanderbilt (20.01, +1)
11. Alabama (18.07, -2)
12. Auburn (15.32, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (127.40, NC)
2. Florida (110.96, NC)
3. Ole Miss (109.91, NC)
4. Arkansas (105.83, +1)
5. Vanderbilt (94.37, +1)
6. Miss. State (91.00, -2)
7. Kentucky (75.03, +1)
8. Alabama (74.43, -1)
9. South Carolina (69.86, NC)
10. Georgia (60.57, NC)
11. Auburn (48.16, NC)
12. LSU (38.90, NC)

—Lots of movement again this week, with Mississippi State falling the most after two consecutive losses, one a blowout to Arkansas on the road.

—Changes on top of both offensive and defensive categories, with Tennessee/Vanderbilt/Florida/Ole Miss battling it out for the top spot offensively while Arkansas and Mississippi State are contending for the defensive honors.

—Tennessee is beginning to distance themselves from the pack statistically, now with 17 points between their top spot and the nearest competitor.

—Interesting to see the scales of competition. Tennessee is on a tier by themselves, and then a second tier consisting of Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State seperated by only 19 points. Then there’s a 16-point drop to the third tier of Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, and Georgia seperated by just 15 points. And then there’s Auburn…..and then’s there’s LSU.

Pomeroy Ratings Week Thirteen prediction…

East

1. [#12] Tennessee (26-5, 13-3)
2. [#34] Florida (24-7, 11-5)
3. [#50] Kentucky (16-13, 10-6)
4. [#63] South Carolina (16-14, 8-8)
5. [#76] Vanderbilt (22-9, 7-9)
6. [#97] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)

West

1. [#31] Arkansas (22-8, 11-5)
1. [#32] Miss. State (20-10, 11-5)
3. [#39] Ole Miss (22-8, 8-8)
4. [#75] Alabama (17-14, 6-10)
5. [#140] Auburn (14-15, 4-12)
6. [#144] LSU (10-20, 3-13)

SEC Overall Title: Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Arkansas, Mississippi State

Percentage Chance of No More Losses

None

Pomeroy Ratings Week Twelve prediction…

These numbers come from Ken Pomeroy’s “Pomeroy Ratings“. I will post the Wirth Values for this week as soon as possible…likely tonight.

East

1. [#13] Tennessee (26-5, 13-3)
2. [#33] Florida (24-7, 11-5)
3. [#52] Kentucky (15-14, 9-7)
4. [#59] Vanderbilt (22-9, 7-9)
5. [#94] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)
5. [#76] South Carolina (14-16, 6-10)

West

1. [#26] Mississippi State (22-9, 13-3)
2. [#46] Arkansas (20-10, 9-7)
2. [#40] Ole Miss (23-7, 9-7)
4. [#90] Alabama (17-14, 6-10)
5. [#140] Auburn (15-14, 5-11)
6. [#139] LSU (9-21, 2-14)

SEC Overall Title: Mississippi State, Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Percentage Chance Of No More Losses

1. Mississippi State – 1.01%

Pomeroy Ratings Week Eleven prediction…

Another feature that we’ll be beginning comes straight from Ken Pomeroy’s statistical blog, one of the most-visited and well-respected statistical geniuses on the net.

In addition to Ken’s standard RPI, he factors efficiency much like I do – except for all 340 NCAa Division I teams. With these numbers, that will be included in these posts, the numbers predict the ultimate outcome of each team’s season.

The following are his predictions for the SEC teams as of Week Eleven.

East

1. [#11] Tennessee (27-4, 14-2)
2. [#32] Florida (23-8, 10-6)
3. [#61] Vanderbilt (23-8, 8-8)
4. [#70] Kentucky (13-16, 7-9)
4. [#74] South Carolina (15-15, 7-9)
6. [#96] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)

West

1. [#31] Mississippi State (21-9, 12-4)
2. [#36] Ole Miss (24-6, 10-6)
3. [#48] Arkansas (19-11, 8-8)
4. [#93] Alabama (16-15, 5-11)
4. [#125] Auburn (15-14, 5-11)
6. [#129] LSU (10-20, 3-13)

SEC Overall Title: Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Percentage Chance of No More Losses

1. Tennessee – 7.10%
2. Miss. State – 0.21%

Wirth Value: Week Eleven

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (56.33, NC)
2. Ole Miss (50.56, +2)
3. Tennessee (50.52, -1)
4. Florida (45.73, -1)
5. Alabama (32.63, NC)
6. Arkansas (31.19, NC)
7. South Carolina (30.46, NC)
8. Miss. State (21.98, +1)
9. Kentucky (21.74, -1)
10. Georgia (19.89, NC)
11. Auburn (16.61, NC)
12. LSU (7.94, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (49.70, NC)
2. Arkansas (46.42, NC)
3. Georgia (40.18, +2)
4. Florida (35.29, NC)
5. Tennessee (34.55, +3)
6. Kentucky (34.15, -3)
7. LSU (24.91, -1)
8. Ole Miss (21.81, -1)
9. South Carolina (20.94, NC)
10. Auburn (19.13, +1)
11. Vanderbilt (17.39, -1)
12. Alabama (17.12, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (125.36, +2)
2. Ole Miss (116.46, -1)
3. Florida (114.76, -1)
4. Vanderbilt (98.62, +1)
5. Arkansas (96.68, -1)
6. Miss. State (92.54, NC)
7. South Carolina (71.81, +2)
8. Alabama (70.47, -1)
9. Georgia (69.82, +1)
10. Kentucky (60.81, -2)
11. Auburn (49.29, +1)
12. LSU (34.80, -1)

—Lots of movement on the defensive board this week, resulting in some pretty major moves on the overall board.

—Tennessee’s RPI has sky-rocketed after defeating both Vanderbilt and Ohio State, and as a result they took over the top position overall and moved up by three after holding the Commodores’ potent offense to only 60 points.

—South Carolina also jumped 2 spots overall after a huge road win over a talented Arkansas squad, despite losing 3 of their last 4.

—Kentucky finds themselves among the bottom of the conference statistically, after losing 3 of their last 4.

—Mississippi State continues to prove the surprise team of the conference thus far, as the Bulldogs’ impressive defense pulls away from the previously-leading Arkansas.

Division Record Update…

As of now, the East vs. West matchup stands at…

Drumroll, please…

East: 3
West: 2

Of note, the West’s only two wins over the East have both come from the hands of MSU, who has defeated Georgia and Kentucky. Florida has provided the East with two wins over Alabama and Auburn, while Tennessee proved the tiebreaker over Ole Miss.

2007-2008 Preseason All-SEC First Team

Now we move on to the A-listers…

All-SEC First Team

Chris Lofton (Tennessee – Shot Guard – Senior – 20.8ppg, 3.1rpg, 1.4spg) – Lofton is easily the best pure shooter in the nation, and a contender for National Player of the Year. The SEC Player of the Year and an All-American a year ago, there is no reason why Lofton shouldn’t continue to improve both his shot and all-around game during his last year as a Volunteer. Despite suffering a short-lived ankle sprain last season, Lofton shot an SEC-leading 41.9% from behind the arc and also added the drive-and-dish to his arsenal. The only negative concerning Lofton is the Vols’ reliance upon him. If the team can avoid becoming too uni-dimensional, Lofton could shoot Tennessee to a National Championship.

Jamont Gordon (Miss. State – Point Guard – Junior – 16.0ppg, 7.1rpg, 5.3apg) – Not many point guards in the nation average 7.1 rebounds per game. The question is, are the Bulldogs relying too heavily on Gordon to supply them or does it come natural? Regardless, Gordon is built like a power forward but has the passing and dribbling abilities of a point. Because of his size, athleticism, and talent, Gordon is a mis-match against both guards and forwards. If the Tennessee-native can continue to improve his assist-to-turnover ratio as he did late last season, Gordon could very well make a case for National Player of the Year.

Shan Foster (Vanderbilt – Power Forward – Senior – 15.6ppg, 4.6rpg, 2.2apg) – Foster is a stereotypical do-everything power guard. He shoots decently from behind the arc (34.6%), but his jumpers are almost impossible to defend with his hands-behind-the-head release. His rebounding numbers will need to improve to truly step up and be the go-to guy the Commodores will need him to be, but Foster has more than enough ability to do it.

Richard Hendrix (Alabama – Power Forward – Junior – 14.6ppg, 8.7rpg, 1.2bpg) – The fact that Hendrix is only a junior is nothing short of scary. One of the most overlooked big men in the country, Hendrix averaged 14.6ppg last season despite playing behind fellow Tide standout Jermareo Davidson. Hendrix will be forced to make up for a lack of experienced inside depth this season, and thus his numbers should explode. If Hendrix can maintain his SEC-best 60.2% field goal percentage and avoid injury, he should be recognized by season’s end as one of the best under-the-basket players in the nation.

Patrick Beverly (Arkansas – Shot Guard – Sophomore – 13.9ppg, 4.5rpg, 3.1apg) – The lone underclassman to make first team, Beverly earned it – and a reputation as an unstoppable shooter – by shooting 38.6% from behind the arc to average nearly 14ppg to lead all SEC freshmen in scoring . One of the best pure shooters in his class, and last season’s SEC Freshman of the Year, Beverly must now focus on improving his already-impressive ball-handling abilities and become more accurate on his shot. Also wise would be to leave the rebounds to Arkansas’ stable of great big men and instead get down-court for the quick transition basket…something I’m sure Pelphrey has mentioned to him. Beverly is a fierce competitor and looks to be one of the conference’s best shooters both this coming season and two to come.

But which wins the coveted SEC:GBD 2007-2008 SEC Player of the Year? Stay tuned…

NCAA fans, bow down…

Kentucky basketball fans are, bar none, the most dedicated group of fans that has ever existed. In all of history. Period.

The University of Kentucky has officially asked fans not to line up more than 3 days before the release of tickets for Kentucky’s annual Midnight Madness event. This will mark the third year in a row that Kentucky has packed out the 23,000-seat Rupp Arena for a practice.

Kentucky basketball fans are only rivaled by Alabama football fans, who packed out the 92,000-seat Bryant Stadium for Alabama’s first open practice last spring, called the A-Day Game.

Insanity, yes. But every fan of any other program should both respect and strive for this level of dedication – even if it borders on the edge of ridiculous.

Interesting time of year…

The beginning of the schoolyear is always an interesting time of year. No, there’s no basketball going on at this point, but with the players falling short of qualifications, suspensions and arrests, and injuries, August and September dictate almost as much of the upcoming season as January and February does.

 Recently, Conference USA has had a bit of trouble with the law. UAB had five, yep – five, players arrested in one night, including former Mississippi State transfer Walter Sharpe. In addition, two Memphis backups were arrested for “inciting a riot”. Let’s get some control of your men, coaches. Memphis also received more bad news, as two Top 100 recruits for the 2008 class decommitted and are now considering other schools.

As if Duqeusne hasn’t had enough turmoil recently, power forward Stuard Baldonado was arrested twice in two days on drug charges. Smart, huh? And then coach Everhart was hospitalized yesterday following his colon surgery. Yikes.

Oklahoma State will be playing this season without their only big-man with game experience, as Kenny Cooper has decided to transfer from the program.

Three-star freshman small forward Johnny Thomas has injured his knee and will be taking a medical redshirt this season.

Many more stories will be filtering in, and I’m sure some of them will relate to the SEC – just hopefully the good ones. The season’s taking shape and I for one am ready.