SEC Tournament Break-Down

Now that the seeds are set and the Southeastern Conference’s 49th all-time league tournament is set to begin this Thursday, March 13th, here is a breakdown of each matchup, predictions for their outcomes, and the times they will be playing. The number following the “#” is that squad’s seeding in their division, and the numeral in brackets is the team’s RPI, per www.kenpom.com.

All SEC Tournament games except for the Final Round will be televised by Raycom Sports, and the Final Round will be televised nationally by CBS.

1st Round

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #5: 13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [#139] vs. (West #4: 13-17, 6-10) LSU [#159]

Offense: Advantage - South Carolina: The Gamecocks don’t shoot particularly well overall, but put up a ton of shots by forcing turnovers. USC is also lethal from three, where they rank third in the conference at 36.7% as a team. The Tigers rank near the bottom of the conference in points per game and field-goal percentage.

Defense: Advantage - LSU: The Tigers’ defense has been above average all year, built around the blocking prowess of both Johnson and Randolph. LSU ranks second in the conference in blocks per game and fourth in field-goal percentage defense, but tend to allow a lot of opponent attempts by turning the ball over and missing offensive rebounding opportunities.

Playmakers: Advantage - LSU: Both teams are short on depth, but the Tigers seem to be more talented overall with All-SEC Freshman candidate Anthony Randolph inside who ranks 3rd in the conference in both rebounding and blocks. Marcus Thornton recently put up 38 points on Mississippi State and has proven to be a lethal all-around scorer, ranking 2nd in the conference in scoring with 19.7 points per game and in the top 15 with a 43.6% field goal percentage. Chris Johnson has proven to be formidable inside as well, ranking 2nd in blocking. The main playmaker for USC is without a doubt Rivals.com First-Team All-SEC Devan Downey, who’s quickness and talented ball-handling is hard to keep from driving the basket. Downey ranks 2nd in the conference in scoring, but doesn’t take the best-advaised shots as he doesn’t rank in the top 15 field-goal percentages. Downey also takes care of the ball well, handing out 5.2 assists to just 2.8 turnovers, ranking 4th in that category.

Depth: Advantage - South Carolina: Although neither team is particularly strong in this area, USC regularly rotates 8 men and has 2 more backups while the Tigers rotate 8 men but have just 1 more usable backup.

Intangibles: Advantage - LSU: Both teams have some things going for them. While Dave Odom will be coaching in his final SEC Tournament that has seen Odom receive his fair share of success, the Tigers have lifted the Brady “weight” off of their shoulders and have been playing inspired basketball, winning 4 of their last 5. Butch Pierre has done a great job at reorganizing the Tigers’ rotation off the bench and creating more offense.

Bottom Line: This will be a game dominated by two or three players with a load of role-players mixed in. The outcome will likely be dictated by USC’s Holmes and LSU’s Randolph inside and USC’s Downey and LSU’s Thornton from the outside. Whichever team can keep the other’s main scorer out of the paint will win the game, although the Tigers will need to keep a handle on their turnovers also.

Prediction: LSU wins, 70-64: The Tigers’ Randolph will prove to be the difference-maker, scoring almost at will inside the paint while Downey will still manage to put up more than 20 points. A close game favors LSU, who leads the conference in free-throw shooting percentage.

3:15 PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #6: 14-15, 4-12) Auburn [#154] vs. (East #3: 25-6, 10-6) Vanderbilt [#10]

Offense: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores are one of the most potent offenses in the conference, averaging 80.4 points per game and leading the conference in three-point percentage at 40.2%. The Tigers rank near the bottom in almost every offensive category.

Defense: Advantage - Vanderbilt: Neither team is known for their defense, but the Tigers have been horrid. Auburn’s field-goal percentage defense is nearly 3% worse than any other SEC team’s, although Vanderbilt’s scoring defense is slightly worse.

Playmakers: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores have the likely SEC Player of the Year in Shan Foster and SEC Freshman of the Year candidate AJ Ogilvy. Foster leads the conference in scoring with 20.6 points per game and 9th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Ogilvy has proven to be a threat offensively as well, leading SEC freshman with 16.7 points per game and 3rd among SEC freshman with 6.8 rebounds per game. Auburn’s Quantez Robertson is one of the most underrated point guards, handing out 4.2 assists to just 1.8 turnovers per game, ranking 2nd in the conference in that category.

Depth: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores have recruited well, and it shows. The ‘Dores regularly rotate 10 men into play, with 1 more off the bench while Auburn rotates 8 with 1 off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores are currently ranked 17th in the nation and are a popular pick for the Sweet 16. Morale is low in Auburn, as the Tigers haven’t seen the postseason in quite some time.

Bottom Line: This game will be full of offense, as neither team plays much defense. An offensive game easily favors Vanderbilt, as the Commodores have been scoring nearly at will all season long. With Auburn’s severe lack of talent and depth, this game could get ugly.

Prediction: Vanderbilt wins, 94-75: At least 9 or 10 players will get on the scoreboard for Vanderbilt, as this game becomes a route early on. Because of a lesser need for him, Foster doesn’t have a remarkable game, scoring around 15 points.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #5: 16-15, 5-11) Alabama [#117] vs. (East #4: 21-10, 8- Florida [#65]

Offense: Advantage - Florida: The Gators are loaded with offensively-talented freshman, ranking 4th in the conference in scoring average and lead the conference in field-goal percentage. The Tide rank near the middle of the conference in all offensive categories.

Defense: Advantage - Alabama: These two teams are possibly the worst defensive teams in the conference, but the Tide have a slight edge in percentages and a sizeable lead in blocks/steals per game. Richard Hendrix probably gives this advantage to Alabama on his own.

Playmakers: Advantage - Alabama: Richard Hendrix, as you all know by now, is possibly my favorite SEC player. He’s practically unstoppable under the rim, even against arguably the nation’s best defender in MSU’s Jarvis Varnado. Hendrix ranks 4th in the conference in scoring, 1st in rebounding (the only SEC player to average a double-double), 3rd in field-goal percentage, and 5th in blocking. Hendrix is a beast, and possibly the best all-around player in the conference. ‘Bama’s Riley is also underestimated, ranking 2nd in the conference in three-point shooting, while Gee is an unpredictable but dynamic play-maker. Florida has their share of talent as well, as freshman Nick Calathes easily leads the conference in assists per game with 6.1, and ranks 3rd in assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s a scoring point, though, leading his team in scoring with 15.9 points per game. Speights can also dominate a game inside, ranking 4th in rebounding and 2nd in field-goal percentage.

Depth: Advantage - Alabama: While both teams are relatively deep, Florida relies more on its talented youth while the Tide have some more experienced players and cycle more men into the game. 9 Bama players regularly see playing time with 2 usable backups, while 9 Gators see common playing time but none are usable off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage - Florida: The Gators will be playing for their NCAA lives and are coached by possibly the SEC’s best coach, while the Tide are struggling to even reach the NIT and have fell short of already-low expectations.

Bottom Line: This is yet another game that will see very little defense and be controlled by offense. Alabama simply won’t have the offense to keep up with the potent Gators, although Hendrix will likely have a huge game against Speights inside. The game will be close, but Alabam’s free throw shooting will cost them the game.

Prediction: Florida wins, 80-72: The game will come down to the final minute, as Alabama will miss key free throws to hand Florida the game.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(East #6: 13-16, 4-12) Georgia [#152] vs. (West #3: 21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [#42]

Offense: Advantage - Ole Miss: The Bulldogs’ offense is the most anemic in the conference, scoring just 67.8 points per game. Conversely, the Rebels have proven to execute an efficient offense, ranking third in the conference in scoring, although the Rebs rank 9th in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Georgia - Both teams play decent defense, but the Bulldogs’ scoring defense gives them the edge, as they rank 4th in the conference with 67.2 points per outing. All of the remaining statistics are very similar.

Playmakers: Advantage - Ole Miss: Neither team is overloaded with talent, but the Rebels have a clear advantage with SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Chris Warren and vastly overlooked big-man Dwayne Curtis on the interior. Warren has tremendous speed but still has work to do on his decision-making skills, leading the team in scoring but shooting just 39.6% from the field and turning the ball over nearly 3 times a game. Curtis ranks 2nd in the conference with an impressive 9.3 rebounds per game and leads the SEC in field-goal percentage, shooting 64.6% on the season. For Georgia, Sundiata Gaines is the key to the team’s offense, putting up over 12 attempts per game, grabbing 6.3 rebounds per game, and ranking 6th in the conference with 4.2 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game. Gaines’ main drawback is free-throw shooting, as he hits just 57.3% of his shots from the charity stripe.

Depth: Advantage - Ole Miss: Both teams have some talent on the bench, but the Rebels have more, as both cycle in 10 men regularly with 1 legitimate backup.

Intangibles: Advantage - Ole Miss: The Rebels absolutely must win this game to reach the NCAA, and they know it. Felton has struggled with off-the-court issues, and the Rebels simply have more to play for.

Bottom Line: When it comes to crunch time, Georgia won’t have the offense to keep up with the Rebels. Curtis should have a monster game, scoring 15-20+ points and 10+ rebounds, as Bliss is not necessarily a threat defensively.

Prediction: Ole Miss wins, 76-67: This game shouldn’t be as close as the score looks, as the Rebels should take control in the second half as the Bulldogs lose any offensive momentum they may have created in the first.

2nd Round

Since the second round depends on who wins in the first, here is a breakdown of each squad who received a bye, both strengths and weaknesses.

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #1: 28-3, 14-2) Tennessee [#1] vs. (Winner of [E5] South Carolina vs. [W4] LSU)

Offense: The Vols have boasted a tremendously potent offense from the very beginning of the season, averaging a league-leading 82.5 points per game. Surprisingly, the Vols rank just 8th in field-goal perentage and 5th from behind the arc, but utilize great offensive rebounding (2nd) and turnover-forcing (1st) to attempt 236 more shots from the floor than their opponents. The squad also shares the ball remarkably well, averaging over 18 assists per game to lead the SEC in that category as well.

Defense: Although the common conception is that a great speed-based offense like Tennessee lacks on defense, this is very untrue for the Vols. The team’s scoring defense ranks a decent 6th, but the key is three-point defense as the team leads the conference quite comfortably in that category, with a 30.5% mark. Forced turnovers are the key to Tennessee’s high-intensity, high-pressure defense, which leads into easy buckets.

Playmakers: The Volunteers are very talented and well-balanced, as despite leading the league in scoring as a team no player averages more than 16 points per game. Chris Lofton, a preseason All-American selection, is that 16ppg scorer, although he manages those points on 11.9 attempts per game as opposed to percentages, as his shooting percentage from the floor doesn’t rank in the top 15 in the conference. Lofton does, however, lead the SEC in free-throw percentage shooting, hitting 84.2% of his attempts. Tyler Smith has claimed his mark as one of the best big-men in the conference, leading his team in rebounding and ranking 8th in the conference in shooting percentage. JuJuan Smith is extremely dynamic but sometimes out of control, though he shoots a respectable 45.2% from the floor. JuJuan also ranks 5th in the SEC in steals per game.

Depth: Tennessee is one of the deepest teams in the conference, with 11 players seeing consistent playing time and 1 other seeing some amount of time off the bench.

Intangibles: Everything is going right for one fo the nation’s top teams, with two or three potential All-SEC First Teamers and SEC Coach of the Year candidate. A Final Four seems a distcint possibility, as does bringing home the Southeastern Conference’s third-straight men’s basketball national title.

Prediction: The Vols have a great chance at winning the conference tournament and going on to an NCAA Tournament 1-seed.

3:15PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #2: 20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [#43] vs. (Winner of [W6] Auburn vs. [E3] Vanderbilt)

Offense: Arkansas is a defense-oriented team who likes to slow the ball down. The team’s scoring margin is mediocre at best, although the percentages are good as most of the team’s scoring comes from inside the paint. The team doesn’t share the ball exceptionally well, and does not shoot well from three as a whole.

Defense: The Razorbacks have been battling MSU for the top spot defensively all season, as the team is loaded with quality big-men. Arkansas ranks 3rd in scoring defense, field-goal percentage defense, and three-point defense as well as blocks per game.

Playmakers: Sonny Weems is the team’s shooting specialist, leading the squad in scoring with 14.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Reigning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly is the conference’s 3rd-most efficient three-point shooter at 40.1%, and Steven Hill ranks 4th in blocks per game. This team doesn’t have many stand-outs, as the effort is usually well-balanced.

Depth: Arkansas is also very deep, as 10 players see regular playing time but no others come off the bench.

Intangibles: The ‘Backs are another team looking to ensure their NCAA hopes, and a win against a very talented Vanderbilt team would do it. Arkansas has lost 5 of their last 8, however, and this will be Pelphrey’s first SEC Tournament. How will the seniors respond in their last SEC Tournament?

Prediction: The Razorbacks should be able to defeat the Commodores, as Vanderbilt hasn’t been able to hit their threes away from home. The ‘Backs would likely fall hard to the Volunteers, however.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #1: 21-9, 12-4) Mississippi State [#38] vs. (Winner of [W5] Alabama vs. [E4] Florida)

Offense: While MSU is widely known to be a very talented team defensively, the squad’s offensive presence has been lost in the shuffle. Although State’s scoring offense ranks just 6th, the team’s field-goal percentage ranks 3rd. The Bulldogs are not adept at three-point shooting, however, nor sharing the ball - ranking 9th and 8th in those categories, respectively. In SEC play, MSU leads the conference in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Well-known at this point, Mississippi State’s field-goal percentage defense ranks atop the SEC and 2nd in the country behind Georgetown, at 36.9%. Absolutely suffocating on defense, the team also ranks 2nd in three-point defense, 1st in scoring defense, and 1st in blocks per game (and also 2nd in the NCAA in that category, behind Connecticut). State’s length and athleticism makes every point scored against them difficult.

Playmakers: The Bulldogs have arguably the most talented starting 5 in the conference, with SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon leading the way. Charles Rhodes is a legitimate All-SEC First-Teamer, Jarvis Varnado leads the nation in blocks per game and is set to challenge Shaq’s all-time SEC blocks record as a sophomore, and both Stewart and Hansbrough are able to put up 20+ points on any given night. Gordon ranks 5th in the conference in scoring while Rhodes ranks 7th, while Varnado ranks 5th in rebounds and Rhodes ranks 6th. Rhodes is a very efficient shooter, even with face to the basket, ranking 6th in the conference in shooting percentage, while Gordon ranks 3rd in assists per game. Hansbrough also ranks in the top 10 in three-point percentage and 3-pointers made per game. This team is very well-balanced, with an offensive big-man, defensive big-man, penetrating guard, and two shooters.

Depth: The Bulldogs have lots of depth on the bench, with a regular rotation cycle of 10 players and 1 off the bench.

Intangibles: State has been on the brink of being ranked throughout the season, and have won 7 of their last 9. The ‘Dawgs seem to work well under the “underdog” mentality, and have the balance and depth to make a run in both postseason tournaments.

Prediction: State hasn’t lost a game to either of their potential second-round matchups, and have only dropped one game out of the total potential matchups in the semifinal round. State seems to be a good bet for the SEC Tournament finals, where a rematch with Tennessee should be an exciting game - although I’d pick the Vols to take that game, as UT won in Starkville in the teams’ previous matchup.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(West #2: 18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [#49] vs. (Winner of [E6] Georgia vs. [W3] Ole Miss)

Offense: Offense hasn’t been a specialty for the Wildcats, as the team ranks 10th in scoring offense for the season in the conference. The slow-paced offense shoots well, though, ranking 3rd in field-goal percentage and 2nd from behind the arc. The problem is rebounding, as the ‘Cats haven’t been able to take many shots from the floor and ranking last in turnover margin.

Defense: The Wildcat defense is a typical hard-nosed Kentucky defense, ranking 2nd in scoring defense allowed and field-goal percentage defense. What the team doesn’t do, however, is force turnovers very well, which when combined with poor ball-handling results in easy buckets for the opponent.

Playmakers: Three Wildcats score 16 points a game or more, although surprisingly only one of them has really captured the media’s attention. That player is SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson, who is no longer with the team after a fractured foot, and won’t be back until next season. Stevenson has handled the loss well, stepping up to record a couple of double-doubles in his absence. The other two top scorers are Crawford and Bradley, who are a couple of the more underestimated players in the league. Crawford ranks 6th in the conference in scoring and 10th in field-goal perecentage, while Bradley ranks 2nd in free-throw percentage.

Depth: Injuries have plagued the Wildcats, who now cycle just 8 men regularly and sub 3 others.

Intangibles: Survival is the key word here, as the Wildcats absolutely must win at least one game in the conference tournament to keep their NCAA hopes alive. The team’s resurgence has been impressive, and the squad seems to be handling the loss of Patterson quite well. Needless to say, the Wildcats have had an immense amount of success in their history in Atlanta.

Prediction: UK should be able to handle either Georgia or Ole Miss, although the Rebels could be a potential mismatch. Next up would likely be Mississippi State, who the Wildcats particularly do not match up well against.

Final Wirth Value

Now that regular-season play has completed, this will be the final Wirth Value until next season. Until then, it bids you farewell…

Offense

1. Tennessee (51.09, +1)
2. Vanderbilt (49.93, -1)
3. Florida (45.60, NC)
4. Ole Miss (37.80, NC)
5. Arkansas (34.71, NC)
6. Miss. State (33.69, +1)
7. Kentucky (32.34, +1)
8. Alabama (30.95, -2)
9. South Carolina (21.98, NC)
10. Auburn (17.34, NC)
11. LSU (13.61, +1)
12. Georgia (13.55, -1)

Defense

1. Miss. State (50.90, NC)
2. Arkansas (46.42, +1)
3. Kentucky (45.48, -1)
4. Tennessee (42.01, NC)
5. Georgia (30.56, NC)
6. Ole Miss (29.59, NC)
7. LSU (27.35, NC)
8. Vanderbilt (22.98, +1)
9. Alabama (21.69, +2)
10. Florida (21.33, -2)
11. South Carolina (17.45, -1)
12. Auburn (13.00, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (135.96, NC)
—————————–
2. Miss. State (105.76, NC)
3. Arkansas (101.78, +3)
4. Ole Miss (101.09, +1)
5. Vanderbilt (100.01, -2)
6. Florida (99.33, -2)
—————————-
7. Kentucky (83.88, NC)
—————————-
8. Alabama (75.00, NC)
—————————-
9. South Carolina (56.88, NC)
10. Georgia (51.65, NC)
11. LSU (45.50, +1)
12. Auburn (44.11, -1)

—The categories stay pretty much the same this week, as Tennessee is clearly the most efficient SEC team, followed by the “NCAA Bunch”, although Florida and Ole Miss seem to be the weakest links of the group as Mississippi State seems to be pulling away with second.

—Kentucky’s numbers fell a small bit from last week, but they remain about 17 points shy of that magical 100 area where the SEC NCAA locks seem to be hovering. The question remains: Will the conference record offset the non-conference record enough?

—Alabama is all alone in the potential NIT at-large bids without a chance for an NCAA at-large bid.

—The remaining teams have packed it up and called it a year, barring miracle runs in the SEC Tournament.

—Note of interest: Alabama fell two offensively but rose two defensively after losing to LSU but then defeating #16 Vanderbilt.

Pre-SEC Tournament Breakdown

Here’s a recap of where each team stands a little over two weeks away from the SEC Tournament. This includes likely seeds in the conference tournament and postseason play, remaining games, etc.

Alabama (14-13, 3-9)

The Tide have played good teams close this season: 4-point loss at Arkansas, 10-point loss to #5 Georgetown, 7-point loss to #1 Tennessee, 7-point loss at Mississippi State. However, the lack of talented depth - particularly interior - has limited the numbers under the win collumn. The team’s defense is miserable, the worst in the SEC in fact, and the offense holds its own. Richard Hendrix is obviously the MVP here, as he is possibly the best overall player in the SEC and by far one of the most overlooked college players in the nation. Gee is a distant second, as he’ll need to work on his decision-making to be a serious threat in his senior season next year. Hendrix is certainly a threat to go pro - but without the press coverage of a good season, he should come back and set up Alabama with a potential to win the conference outright next season, as some talented recruits filter into the program, Steele becomes available for his senior season more healthy than he’s been in a while, and the squad loses nearly noone.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #5 seed
Round One: vs. Florida (W4)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Arkansas (18-8, 7-5)

The Razorbacks have played well, but look to fall just short of their predicted finish of first in the Western division, mainly due to missed opportunites for wins at Georgia (L, 69-82) and versus South Carolina (L, 66-70). The team excels in rebounding and defense, its game-plan very similar to Mississippi State. Ironically, both Weems and Beverly lead the team in scoring threats, although Beverly’s shooting has dropped off significantly from last year and his rebounding has drastically improved, despite the squad’s reliance on its big-men. None of the Arkansas players will likely make any NBA draft, although the team loses Ervin, Hill, Hunter, Thomas, Townes, and Weems next year as 2008-2009 looks to be a gigantic rebuilding year for the ‘Backs.

Remaining Schedule (Prediction)

@ Alabama (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Ole Miss (W)
vs. Auburn (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

21-9, 10-6

SEC Tournament

West #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. LSU (W6) or Vanderbilt (E3)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 8 seed

Auburn (14-11, 4-

The Tigers have lots of potential to score, but only from their shooters - not their offensive plays. The team excels at racing and cutting to the basket, but are very vertically challenged with only one player on the roaster taller than their coach, Jeff Lebo. Free-throw shooting and field-goal percentage are the squad’s specialties, but nearly nothing else is - and rebounding is certainly the team’s biggest weakness. Depth has also been an enormous issue, as rarely do more than six Tigers score in a given game. Prowell leads the team in scoring, although Barber is arguably the team’s most important player with 13.8ppg, 6.9rpg and shooting 72.0% from the field. Quantez Robertson is one of the most under-appreciated point guards in the conference, as he sports 4.3 assists to 1.8 turnovers per game. None of the players have a shot at going pro, and the team loses Archie, Prowell, and Tolbert for next season…a significant scoring loss for a team that can’t afford to lose much depth.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Mississippi State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (L)
@ Arkansas (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-14, 5-11

SEC Tournament

West #4 seed
Round One: vs. South Carolina (E5)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Florida (20-7, 7-5)

The very, very young Gators started off hot and looked to compete for the conference title, standing at 18-3 and 5-1 at one point. Since then, the freshmen have - like Ole Miss’ - hit the “brick wall”, as the squad has gone 2-4. The team is immensely talented (the nation’s top recruiting class for last year) but still very young and look to improve vastly next season. Defense has been shoddy at best, but the offense has been dynamic and nearly unstoppable. Calathes has been the catalyst for the team all season, as he leads the team with 15.3ppg, and also ranks among the top of the conference with 6.1 assists per game. Speights has proven to be a formidable inside prescense, putting up 7.8rpg and shooting 61.6% from the field. Losing noone for next year, this team looks to challenge for the overall SEC title next season and could very well end up as a Final Four threat before its all said and done.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Georgia (W)
vs. Mississippi St. (W)
vs. #1 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

22-9, 9-7

SEC Tournament

East #4 seed
Round One: vs. Alabama (W5)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 9 seed

Georgia (12-13, 3-9)

The Bulldogs, much like Alabama, have competed in nearly every game and played good fundamentals, but simply haven’t pulled through in the clutch. Close games include: 8-point loss at Gonzaga, a win over Arkansas, 5-point loss to Kentucky, 8-point loss to #18 Vanderbilt, 3-point loss to #1 Tennessee, and a 6-point loss at Kentucky. The team rebounds and defends well, but can’t get anything going offensively. Sundiata Gaines has proven to be a dominating player, shooting incredibly well and even averaging 6.6rpg. Gaines has a great potential to make the conference’s first-team, and certainly the second-team. With that said, when your playmaking guard is leading your team in rebounding, someone’s missing some assignments. Gaines will probably test the NBA waters but certainly won’t make the cut, and the team loses Gaines and Bliss headed into next season. Losing Gaines will likely mean yet another season at the bottom of the SEC East.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Ole Miss (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

East #6 seed
Round One: vs. Ole Miss (W3)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Kentucky (15-10, 9-3)

The two most interesting storylines heading into the postseason will be Kentucky and Ole Miss - direct opposites of each other. As the Rebels have a decent overall wins record and RPI, their SEC record is miserable. Conversely, the Wildcats have won just 15 games and have home losses to both Gardner-Webb (L, 68-84) and San Diego (L, 72-81) but have amassed an impressive 9-3 conference record with wins over #18 Vanderbilt, #1 Tennessee, and Arkansas. The team has taken advantage of a solid defensive prescense, decent rebounding, and the conference’s best free-throw shooting to edge into second place in the conference and within a game and a half of Tennessee for the lead. The interesting issue for Kentucky is that the NCAA selection committee will likely either have to leave out a 10+ win SEC team for the first time ever or hand out an at-large to a 18 or 19-win team. Crawford, Patterson, and Bradley each contribute more than 15 points for a Wildcat team that has struggled with talented depth. Patterson will battle Calathes and Ogilvy for SEC Freshman of the Year, averaging 16.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Bradley leads the league in free-throw shooting with an 85.6% mark from the charity stripe. The only likely NBA-bound player will be Patterson, although he would be advised not to leave this season. The Wildcats will take a major blow in the points column by losing both Bradley and Crawford next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

18-11, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Georgia (E6) or Ole Miss (W3)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 10 seed

LSU (10-16, 3-9)

Surprisingly competitve following coach Brady’s firing, the Tigers have since upset Florida, handed a 20-point demolition to Ole Miss, played #1 Tennessee to 2 points, and played Kentucky to 4. However, the big picture is an ugly one for the Tigers, as they trail the entire conference in an enormous amount of statistical categories. Rebounding isn’t good, defense is mediocre, and offense is horrendous. About the only plus for LSU is ranking [a distant] second in the league in blocks per game. Marcus Thornton is the playmaker for the Tigers, as he averages 18.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Anthony Randolph is a quality big-man down low, although he hasn’t fared particularly well against the SEC’s other great big-men, with 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Both players would be legitimate NBA material if on another team, but the obscene lack of depth and the absence of a point-guard for LSU will limit that until the team steps back onto the national scene. As a positive, the team loses noone of importance heading into next season, and should have every opportunity to improve upon this year’s dismal record.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Mississippi State (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

11-19, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #6 seed
Round One: vs. Vanderbilt (E3)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Mississippi State (18-8, 9-3)

With a two-game lead in the West with four games remaining, the Bulldogs have a strangle-hold on the division. Also just a game and a half back overall, the overall title is still a distant hope. None of this would have been predicted earlier in the season when MSU stood at 5-5 on the season with losses to both Miamis and Southern Illinois among others. No terrible losses, but games a Western-Division champion should win. State has improved drastically since that point, with the only noticeable losses being a 20-point blowout at Arkansas and a loss at rival Ole Miss. The team has peeled off this impressive stretch by ranking 2nd in the nation in both field-goal percentage defense and blocking, while sophomore defensive expert Jarvis Varnado leads the entire nation in blocks per game. Varnado has totalled more blocks personally than at least 7 SEC teams as a whole, and has long since surpassed MSU’s all-time single-season block record. Rebounding is also a specialty for the Bulldogs, although ball-handling and free-throw shooting could prove to be fatal shortcomings in the NCAA Tournament. State’s Gordon will challenge Vandy’s Shan Foster for SEC Player of the Year, as the all-america candidate is leading the team with 17.5ppg, 6.3rpg (as a point guard) and 4.7 assists per game - although 4.0 turnovers per game is far from desirable. Rhodes has stepped up his play lately to put himself into the argument for All-SEC First Team. Rhodes will likely throw his name into the draft as a senior, and if Gordon will follow Rhodes into the NBA will perhaps become the SEC’s biggest question this off-season. If not, Gordon could lead the Bulldogs back to the top of the West and to the NCAA’s.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #18 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 11-5

SEC Tournament

West #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Alabama (W5) or Florida (E4)
Semifinals: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 6 seed

Ole Miss (18-8, 4-

The Rebels have officially become “this year’s Clemson” after throwing the SEC on its heels by starting 13-0 but since have posted a 4-8 record, including being swept by Auburn and posting a 20-point loss at the SEC’s worst team, LSU. After appearing to be a certain NCAA lock, the team is now teetering on the wrong side of the bubble as the best possible outcome will be a sub-.500 SEC record. The team’s offensive efficiency has been outstanding for most of the season until recently, with freshman Chris Warren leading the charge. Defensively, the Rebels are non-existent although rebounding (behind Curtis) has become a trademark. Warren leads the Rebs both in scoring but in leadership - which has proved a major problem, as he is only a freshman. Curtis follows Hendrix as the conference’s best big-man, nearly averaging a double-double at 14.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. The team is very young and has tons of potential, but will lose most of its frontcourt with the exodus of Curtis (to graduation and then the NBA) and Williams, the teams’ often-overlooked but very talented forward (to graduation). Next year, the Rebels look to be equally as talented offensively but rebounding will suffer badly and defense should continue to struggle.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Georgia (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 6-8

SEC Tournament

West #3 seed
Round One: vs. Georgia (E6)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NIT: 1 seed

South Carolina (12-14, 4-

The Gamecocks are a stereotypical USC team - one talented point guard, and very little surrounding him. Downey can’t win every game on his own, and thus the squad has struggled. Amidst Odom’s announcement of his retirement at the end of the season, South Carolina has seemed just fall just short in nearly every game. South Carolina is actually one of the SEC’s best - if not the best - three-point shooting teams from a percentage aspect, but their reliance on the longball can get them into some trouble if they’re not falling. Downey is one of the conference’s top scorers, averaging 19.7 points per game, though he’s also putting up over 17 attempts per game. Downey is responsible, however, for 5.1 assists per outing. As a sophomore, Downey will likely leave his name out of the NBA waters, but he has the talent to get there at some point in his career. Losing literally noone from this year’s team, the Gamecocks are poised to be a competitive bunch next season, depending on the coaching change.v

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-17, 5-11

SEC Tournament

East #5 seed
Round One: vs. Auburn (W4)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Tennessee (25-3, 11-2)

After a thrilling upset of the nation’s top-ranked team in Memphis, the Vols were ushered into the top spot with welcome arms the following Monday. However, the excitement of the program’s first #1 ranking ever was soon lost on Tuesday night, as the Vols dropped a 3-point road decision to 18th-ranked Vanderbilt. Tennessee is still a menacing team sure to stretch their season long into the NCAA Tournament and continue to vie for a top seed barring no more losses until the conference tournament’s final game. Rebounding has been a pleasant surprise for head coach Bruce Pearl, mainly due to his genious coaching skills and the team knowing their placements on shot-selection. The team makes more three-pointers than any other team in the conference, but barely shoots an above-average percentage from that range. Balanced scoring has highlighted the team’s dynamic, as pre-season All-American Chris Lofton’s percentages has suffered this year. He still leads the team in scoring, but isn’t shooting even 40% from the field and is hoisting up almost 2 more shots per game than any other teammate. JuJuan Smith has evolved into a Jamont-Gordon-like dynamic player who’s able to do almost anything with the basketball, and Tyler Smith has lived up to the pre-season hype as one of the nation’s best incoming transfers. The immense wealth of talent that Pearl has so quickly stock-piled is unrivaled in the conference, and any number of players could prove to have NBA skills, including Lofton, Tyler/JuJuan Smith, and others. Because of this, it’s very difficult to pick out who may actually jump, although I suspect both Lofton and JuJuan Smith will put their names in the hat due to their lack of remaining eligibility. Those two are the only players lost for Tennessee (although they are very important pieces to the puzzle), so Tennessee could once again be in the running for a divisional or conference title next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

28-3, 14-2

SEC Tournament

East #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. South Carolina (E5) or Auburn (W4)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 1 seed

Vanderbilt (24-4, 9-4)

The Commodores started off at a red-hot clip, winning 16-straight games before losing 4 of their next 5. Appearing to be mimmicking Ole Miss’ epic implosion, the Commodores bounced back to a very good SEC record and have long since sealed their NCAA fates. The team (seemingly among many others in the Eastern Division) relies heavily on three-point shooting while rebounding isn’t a specialty, and has been anchored by SEC Player of the Year candidate Shan Foster and outstanding SEC Fresham of the Year candidate A.J. Ogilvy. Foster is near the top of the conference in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per contest on an absolutely excellent 51.6% shooting despite putting up over 13 attempts per game. Foster also is shooting over 45% from behind the arc and 5 rebounds per game. Ogilvy has proved formidable on the offensive end and less so on the defensive end, averaging 16.6ppg and 6.8rpg. Both players have NBA potential, although Foster is an almost definite as this is his last year. Ogilvy is a big question-mark, as he’s been on scouts’ radars even since his high-school days in Australia. If the team loses both, next year could be a semi-rebuilding year, although the NCAA’s would still be well within reach.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

at Arkansas (W)
vs. Mississippi State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

27-4, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #3 seed
Round One: vs. LSU (W6)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 3 seed

Wirth Value: Week Sixteen

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (54.55, NC)
2. Tennessee (52.39, NC)
3. Florida (44.96, NC)
4. Ole Miss (37.80, NC)
5. Alabama (32.47, +2)
6. Arkansas (31.76, -1)
7. Kentucky (31.40, -1)
8. Miss. State (26.84, NC)
9. South Carolina (24.64, NC)
10. Auburn (21.56, NC)
11. Georgia (15.56, NC)
12. LSU (11.62, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (49.74, NC)
2. Arkansas (47.78, NC)
3. Kentucky (44.42, NC)
4. Tennessee (41.36, +1)
5. Georgia (33.23, -1)
6. Ole Miss (25.34, +4)
7. Florida (25.26, -1)
8. Vanderbilt (24.81, -1)
9. LSU (23.37, -1)
10. Alabama (21.43, -1)
11. South Carolina (17.69, NC)
12. Auburn (14.28, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (137.36, NC)
————————–
2. Vanderbilt (104.34, +2)
3. Florida (101.76, -1)
4. Arkansas (98.95, +2)
5. Ole Miss (98.92, -2)
6. Miss. State (97.30, -1)
————————–
7. Kentucky (84.02, NC)
8. Alabama (76.24, NC)
————————–
9. South Carolina (59.68, NC)
10. Georgia (58.87, NC)
————————–
11. Auburn (48.17, NC)
12. LSU (38.83, NC)

—As if the Vols hadn’t convinced us yet, they are clearly and unquestionably the best team in the nation, much less the SEC.

—The next group is split by only 7.04 points, and all look to reach the NCAA Tournament - although Ole Miss is not far from falling out of that group.

—The next group is distant NCAA hopefuls, with Kentucky the clearly more viable option.

—The next group is NIT hopefuls, although both teams are unlikely to claim a bid.

—The final group are teams that have effectively lost all postseason hopes.

Wirth Value: Week Fifteen

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (51.45, NC)
2. Tennessee (50.95, NC)
3. Florida (44.11, NC)
4. Ole Miss (41.48, NC)
5. Arkansas (31.43, NC)
6. Kentucky (30.29, NC)
7. Alabama (29.85, +1)
8. Miss. State (28.01, -1)
9. South Carolina (24.99, NC)
10. Auburn (23.37, NC)
11. Georgia (16.23, NC)
12. LSU (10.38, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (49.75, +1)
2. Arkansas (49.01, -1)
3. Kentucky (40.48, NC)
4. Georgia (38.00, +1)
5. Tennessee (37.05, -1)
6. Florida (26.61, NC)
7. Vanderbilt (24.85, +3)
8. LSU (24.80, NC)
9. Alabama (21.92, +2)
10. Ole Miss (21.47, -3)
11. South Carolina (18.61, -2)
12. Auburn (14.12, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (131.92, NC)
2. Florida (101.73, +2)
3. Ole Miss (101.68, NC)
4. Vanderbilt (100.34, +2)
5. Miss. State (100.23, NC)
6. Arkansas (98.62, -4)
—————————-
7. Kentucky (78.87, NC)
8. Alabama (72.38, +1)
—————————-
9. South Carolina (63.41, -1)
10. Georgia (62.41, NC)
—————————-
11. Auburn (49.68, NC)
12. LSU (38.60, NC)

—The most noticeable thing to me this week is the 2nd-5th place groups overall, seperated by just 1.50 points. Arkansas is just 1.61 points out of that group. With Tennessee absolutely dominating the league statistically, the 2nd-6th group should all be NCAA squads.

—The next group of Kentucky and Alabama are likely high NIT seeds but very unlikely to reach the NCAA’s without a miracle turn-around.

—Next up is South Carolina and Georgia, who are low bubble teams for the NIT, and following those are Auburn and LSU who have very little to no hope of seeing any postseason play.

Pomeroy Ratings Week Fourteen prediction…

East

1. [#14] Tennessee (27-4, 14-2)
2. [#34] Florida (23-8, 10-6)
2. [#48] Kentucky (16-13, 10-6)
4. [#70] Vanderbilt (23-8, 8-
5. [#67] South Carolina (15-15, 7-9)
6. [#97] Georgia (14-15, 5-11)

West

1. [#30] Mississippi State (21-9, 12-4)
2. [#31] Arkansas (22-8, 11-5)
3. [#40] Ole Miss (22-8, 8-
4. [#82] Alabama (16-15, 5-11)
5. [#141] Auburn (13-16, 3-13)
5. [#130] LSU (10-20, 3-13)

SEC Overall Title: Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

[delayed] Wirth Value: Week Thirteen

Thanks for your patience. 

Offense

1. Tennessee (52.10, +1)
2. Vanderbilt (49.63, -1)
3. Florida (48.37, NC)
4. Ole Miss (43.13, NC)
5. Alabama (35.08, NC)
6. Arkansas (31.45, NC)
7. Kentucky (28.73, NC)
8. South Carolina (26.21, +1)
9. Miss. State (23.86, -1)
10. Auburn (20.35, NC)
11. Georgia (14.42, NC)
12. LSU (11.77, NC)

Defense

1. Arkansas (51.72, +1)
2. Miss. State (49.43, -1)
3. Georgia (38.81, NC)
4. Kentucky (37.78, NC)
5. Tennessee (33.75, NC)
6. Florida (29.46, NC)
7. South Carolina (25.53, +2)
8. Ole Miss (24.71, -1)
9. LSU (23.29, NC)
10. Vanderbilt (20.01, +1)
11. Alabama (18.07, -2)
12. Auburn (15.32, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (127.40, NC)
2. Florida (110.96, NC)
3. Ole Miss (109.91, NC)
4. Arkansas (105.83, +1)
5. Vanderbilt (94.37, +1)
6. Miss. State (91.00, -2)
7. Kentucky (75.03, +1)
8. Alabama (74.43, -1)
9. South Carolina (69.86, NC)
10. Georgia (60.57, NC)
11. Auburn (48.16, NC)
12. LSU (38.90, NC)

—Lots of movement again this week, with Mississippi State falling the most after two consecutive losses, one a blowout to Arkansas on the road.

—Changes on top of both offensive and defensive categories, with Tennessee/Vanderbilt/Florida/Ole Miss battling it out for the top spot offensively while Arkansas and Mississippi State are contending for the defensive honors.

—Tennessee is beginning to distance themselves from the pack statistically, now with 17 points between their top spot and the nearest competitor.

—Interesting to see the scales of competition. Tennessee is on a tier by themselves, and then a second tier consisting of Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State seperated by only 19 points. Then there’s a 16-point drop to the third tier of Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, and Georgia seperated by just 15 points. And then there’s Auburn…..and then’s there’s LSU.

Pomeroy Ratings Week Thirteen prediction…

East

1. [#12] Tennessee (26-5, 13-3)
2. [#34] Florida (24-7, 11-5)
3. [#50] Kentucky (16-13, 10-6)
4. [#63] South Carolina (16-14, 8-
5. [#76] Vanderbilt (22-9, 7-9)
6. [#97] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)

West

1. [#31] Arkansas (22-8, 11-5)
1. [#32] Miss. State (20-10, 11-5)
3. [#39] Ole Miss (22-8, 8-
4. [#75] Alabama (17-14, 6-10)
5. [#140] Auburn (14-15, 4-12)
6. [#144] LSU (10-20, 3-13)

SEC Overall Title: Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Arkansas, Mississippi State

Percentage Chance of No More Losses

None

Pomeroy Ratings Week Twelve prediction…

These numbers come from Ken Pomeroy’s “Pomeroy Ratings“. I will post the Wirth Values for this week as soon as possible…likely tonight.

East

1. [#13] Tennessee (26-5, 13-3)
2. [#33] Florida (24-7, 11-5)
3. [#52] Kentucky (15-14, 9-7)
4. [#59] Vanderbilt (22-9, 7-9)
5. [#94] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)
5. [#76] South Carolina (14-16, 6-10)

West

1. [#26] Mississippi State (22-9, 13-3)
2. [#46] Arkansas (20-10, 9-7)
2. [#40] Ole Miss (23-7, 9-7)
4. [#90] Alabama (17-14, 6-10)
5. [#140] Auburn (15-14, 5-11)
6. [#139] LSU (9-21, 2-14)

SEC Overall Title: Mississippi State, Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Percentage Chance Of No More Losses

1. Mississippi State - 1.01%

Pomeroy Ratings Week Eleven prediction…

Another feature that we’ll be beginning comes straight from Ken Pomeroy’s statistical blog, one of the most-visited and well-respected statistical geniuses on the net.

In addition to Ken’s standard RPI, he factors efficiency much like I do - except for all 340 NCAa Division I teams. With these numbers, that will be included in these posts, the numbers predict the ultimate outcome of each team’s season.

The following are his predictions for the SEC teams as of Week Eleven.

East

1. [#11] Tennessee (27-4, 14-2)
2. [#32] Florida (23-8, 10-6)
3. [#61] Vanderbilt (23-8, 8-
4. [#70] Kentucky (13-16, 7-9)
4. [#74] South Carolina (15-15, 7-9)
6. [#96] Georgia (15-14, 6-10)

West

1. [#31] Mississippi State (21-9, 12-4)
2. [#36] Ole Miss (24-6, 10-6)
3. [#48] Arkansas (19-11, 8-
4. [#93] Alabama (16-15, 5-11)
4. [#125] Auburn (15-14, 5-11)
6. [#129] LSU (10-20, 3-13)

SEC Overall Title: Tennessee

SEC Eastern Division Title: Tennessee

SEC Western Division Title: Mississippi State

Percentage Chance of No More Losses

1. Tennessee - 7.10%
2. Miss. State - 0.21%

Wirth Value: Week Eleven

Offense

1. Vanderbilt (56.33, NC)
2. Ole Miss (50.56, +2)
3. Tennessee (50.52, -1)
4. Florida (45.73, -1)
5. Alabama (32.63, NC)
6. Arkansas (31.19, NC)
7. South Carolina (30.46, NC)
8. Miss. State (21.98, +1)
9. Kentucky (21.74, -1)
10. Georgia (19.89, NC)
11. Auburn (16.61, NC)
12. LSU (7.94, NC)

Defense

1. Miss. State (49.70, NC)
2. Arkansas (46.42, NC)
3. Georgia (40.18, +2)
4. Florida (35.29, NC)
5. Tennessee (34.55, +3)
6. Kentucky (34.15, -3)
7. LSU (24.91, -1)
8. Ole Miss (21.81, -1)
9. South Carolina (20.94, NC)
10. Auburn (19.13, +1)
11. Vanderbilt (17.39, -1)
12. Alabama (17.12, NC)

Overall

1. Tennessee (125.36, +2)
2. Ole Miss (116.46, -1)
3. Florida (114.76, -1)
4. Vanderbilt (98.62, +1)
5. Arkansas (96.68, -1)
6. Miss. State (92.54, NC)
7. South Carolina (71.81, +2)
8. Alabama (70.47, -1)
9. Georgia (69.82, +1)
10. Kentucky (60.81, -2)
11. Auburn (49.29, +1)
12. LSU (34.80, -1)

—Lots of movement on the defensive board this week, resulting in some pretty major moves on the overall board.

—Tennessee’s RPI has sky-rocketed after defeating both Vanderbilt and Ohio State, and as a result they took over the top position overall and moved up by three after holding the Commodores’ potent offense to only 60 points.

—South Carolina also jumped 2 spots overall after a huge road win over a talented Arkansas squad, despite losing 3 of their last 4.

—Kentucky finds themselves among the bottom of the conference statistically, after losing 3 of their last 4.

—Mississippi State continues to prove the surprise team of the conference thus far, as the Bulldogs’ impressive defense pulls away from the previously-leading Arkansas.

Division Record Update…

As of now, the East vs. West matchup stands at…

Drumroll, please…

East: 3
West: 2

Of note, the West’s only two wins over the East have both come from the hands of MSU, who has defeated Georgia and Kentucky. Florida has provided the East with two wins over Alabama and Auburn, while Tennessee proved the tiebreaker over Ole Miss.

Week Two in SEC stats…

If you’re curious as to how I’ve calculated these, refer to my previous post on the subject. Week Two is slightly more accurate, but there is still an enormous amount of basketball to be played. Still more of an interesting side note than anything. Also keep in mind the strength of schedules do not play into these, they are pure stats and nothing esle. With that said, here’s the results as the first number in parenthesis is the result and the next is the change in placing from the previous week…

Offensive

1. Ole Miss (4.00, +1)
2. Florida (4.12, +6)
3. Georgia (4.38, -2)
4. South Carolina (4.62, NC)
5. Tennessee (5.38, NC)
6. Alabama (5.50, NC)
7. Vanderbilt (6.62, -3)
8. Miss. State (6.75, -2)
9. Kentucky (8.50, NC)
10. Arkansas (8.75, NC)
11. LSU (9.38, +1)
12. Auburn (9.50, -1)

Defensive

1. Arkansas (3.00, +1)
2. South Carolina (4.71, +4)
3. Miss. State (5.71, -2)
4. Tennessee (6.14, +4)
5. Florida (6.29, +4)
6. Kentucky (6.57, +1)
7. Alabama (6.71, -4)
8. Ole Miss (7.00, -4)
9. Georgia (7.14, -4)
10. LSU (7.29, +2)
11. Auburn (7.43, NC)
12. Vanderbilt (8.86, -2)

Overall

1. South Carolina (4. 37, +3)
2. Florida (4.84, +
3. Ole Miss (4.95, -2)
4. Tennessee (5.68, +1)
5. Georgia (5.74, -3)
6. Alabama (6.16, NC)
7. Miss. State (6.42, -4)
8. Arkansas (6.74, NC)
9. Auburn (7.26, +2)
10. Vanderbilt (7.53, -3)
11. Kentucky (7.74, -3)
12. LSU (8.63, NC)

Florida was the obvious gainer this week, as they gained eight spots. It should be said, however, that these stats are being fluffed from waifer-like opponents. Mississippi State was the biggest loser, falling four spots as a result to a loss to Clemson. And for the record, LSU is just plain bad.

Categories Led

Alabama: 4 (+2)
Tennessee: 3 (+2)
Arkansas: 2 (+1)
Miss. State: 2 (-2)
Ole Miss: 2 (-1)
South Carolina: 2 (+1)
Vanderbilt: 2 (+2)
Georgia: 1 (-6)
Kentucky: 1 (NC)
Auburn: 0 (NC)
Florida: 0 (-1)
LSU: 0 (NC)

For the record, this is my favorite post weekly. Call me a stats junkie.

Week One in SEC stats…

Overall: 12-1 (92%)
Vs. Spread: 5-4 (56%) 

Each week I’ll be posting the offensive, defensive, and overall rankings for each SEC school. I calculate this by collecting all statistical offensive and defensive categories for each ranking and finding the team’s average. The lower the number, the higher the team ranks - and thus, the better. This week will be out of eleven teams, as LSU has yet to play. All statistics are collected here if you’re interested in individual rankings, and Sunday games will not count for the day of the post because it takes the site about a day to update. With that said, here are Week One’s results - keeping in mind most of these take into account only one game and thus will likely change dramatically.

Offensive

1. Georgia (2.50)
2. Ole Miss (3.00)
3. Vanderbilt (5.12)
4. South Carolina (5.3
5. Tennessee (5.62)
6. Miss. State (6.00)
6. Alabama (6.00)
8. Florida (6.8
9. Kentucky (7.12)
10. Arkansas (7.75)
11. Auburn (9.75)

Defensive

1. Miss. State (4.71)
2. Arkansas (4.86)
3. Alabama (5.29)
4. Ole Miss (5.57)
5. Georgia (5.71)
6. South Carolina (6.00)
7. Kentucky (6.14)
8. Tennessee (6.29)
9. Florida (6.71)
10. Vanderbilt (7.57)
11. Auburn (8.14)

Overall

1. Ole Miss (3.89)
2. Georgia (4.37)
3. Miss. State (5.26)
4. South Carolina (5.53)
5. Tennessee (5.79)
6. Alabama (6.26)
7. Vanderbilt (6.32)
8. Kentucky (6.74)
8. Arkansas (6.74)
10. Florida (6.95)
11. Auburn (9.16)

Disclaimer: Defensive and Overall numbers are artificially high - LSU was ranked #1 in some categories despite not having played a game, which lowered everyone else’s ranking. However, the rankings were lowered evenly and thus the rankings listed are correct.

Keep in mind, these numbers are from very few games and do not weight the quality of opponent - they simply calculate the statistical knowledge available of each team. Although these numbers are little more than a fun perspective of the sport as of now, they will be all-too telling later on in the season (a lot like the RPI). Interesting to notice how poorly Auburn played in the loss to Tulane, especially offensively. Tennessee isn’t impressive so far…although I suspect their numbers will improve. Georgia dominated nearly every category, which is impressive considering their significant pre-season losses.

Teams which are at least average offensively or defensively and excellent in the other are typically the most consistently competitive ones. With that said, look out for Georgia and Ole Miss - both are young and will be too inconsistent to challenge in a big way in the conference but will be able to win every game they play this season. South Carolina could be surprisingly competitive, Mississippi State should compete heavily for the SEC crown, and Alabama might not be too hard-off without Steele and Davidson.

Here are the numbers of statistical categories each team led this week, including ties…

Georgia: 7
Miss. State: 4
Ole Miss: 3
Alabama: 2
Arkansas: 1
South Carolina: 1
Kentucky: 1
Florida: 1
Tennessee: 1

On a side note, Kansas State’s top-ranked freshman pulled down an impressive double-double in his Big 12 debut, scoring 34 points on 12-of-20 shooting and a Big 12-record 24 rebounds. Good Jesus. That’s all I got to say.

In his ever-heralded debut, Ogilvy is trying to prove he’s a bit more competitive than I think he is. He shot 6-of-9 from the field and 6-of-7 from the charity stripe to notch 19 points, claimed 9 rebounds, blocked two shots but turned the ball over three times. Forunately for Ogilvy, Austin Peay is a very short team with little presence in the paint…although this was an impressive debut, I find it difficult to believe the Aussie will continue this in SEC play.

And for the record, I ask: How long will it take Lofton to find his shot? He shot 1-of-8 from the field against Temple, including 0-of-5 from long-range. Not very good for a guy who’s known to be the best pure-shooter in the nation. Although he scored 10 points, eight of them came from a perfect 8-of-8 performance from the free throw line. Tennessee, as talent-laden as they are, won’t be invincible in the SEC if Lofton has trouble with consistency.

Florida proved me wrong tonight, covering the 21.5 point spread easily in their 93-65 victory over Tennessee Tech. Florida’s balanced scoring was exceptional (remind you of the last two years, maybe?) with five players between 13 and 16 points. There were no double-doubles, although so-far-impressive freshman Nick Calathes dished out eight assists against only three turnovers. The Gators’ shooting was also excellent, as they shot 56.9% overall, notched a crazy 52.9% from three, and hit 81.8% of their free throws. The only worrysome figure was rebounding, in which they fell behind Tech 29-26.

More to come…

An exhibition recap…

Here are some scores and notes from exhibition games from around the conference thus far…

Arkansas

11/02/07: Arkansas (117) vs. West Florida (43)

Michael Washington led six Razorbacks in double figures with 22 points and 10 rebounds for the team’s only double-double, and returning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly scored 17 and dished out nine assists.

Auburn

11/01/07: Auburn (89) vs. Bluefield (75)

Four Tigers scored in double-figures, including Frank Tolbert’s high of 25 points. Surprisingly, Auburn only attempted 14 three-pointers.

Florida

11/01/07: Florida (97) vs. Flagler (51)

Two Gators, Marreese Speights and Nick Calathes, recorded double-doubles in the Gator victory. Speights led the Gators with 22 points along with 13 rebounds, while Calathes fell two assists short of a triple-double with 18 points, 13 rebounds, and eight assists. All of the Gator freshmen scored in double-digits, and Florida outrebounded their opponents 59-33.

Georgia

11/02/07: Georgia (90) vs. Clayton State (56)

Sundiata Gaines scored a game-high 15 points - all from behind the arc - and Billy Humphrey scored 14. The freshmen all scored at least eight points.

Kentucky

10/31/07: Kentucky (99) vs. Pikeville (64)

Sophomore Jodie Meeks led all scorers with an impressive 34 points, including 7-of-9 shooting from three. Incoming star freshman Patrick Patterson contributed 21 points on 10-of-12 shooting from the floor.

11/03/07: Kentucky (82) vs. Seattle (63)

Patrick Patterson dominated this game, scoring 17 points on a perfect 6-of-6 from the floor and 5-of-5 from the free-throw line. He also grabbed seven rebounds and blocked three shots.

LSU

11/01/07: LSU (10 vs. Belhaven (57)

Junior-college transfer Marcus Thornton was the surprise in this game, recording 22 points on 9-of-18 shooting. Anthony Randolph scored a double-double with 20 points and 15 rebounds and first-team all-SEC Tasmin Mitchell scored 18.

Mississippi State

11/03/07: MSU (71) vs. Univ. of the Cumberlands (60)

Little-known inside presence Jarvis Varnado dominated both ends of the court for the Bulldogs, falling two blocks shy of a triple-double with 13 points on 6-of-7 shooting, 11 rebounds, and eight blocks. Yes, eight blocks, which would have tied the school record for most blocks in a game. Three other Bulldogs scored in double figures.

Ole Miss

11/02/07: Ole Miss (110) vs. Delta State (65)

Six Rebels notched double-figure nights, with David Huerta leading them with 18 points. Freshman point guard Chris Warren impressed with 17 of his own.

Tennessee

11/02/07: Tennessee (106) vs. California-PA. (46)

Seven Vols recorded double-figure scores, led by trio Tyler Smith, Cameron Tatum, and Josh Tabb each scoring 15. Smith shot 7-of-12 from the floor, Tatum was a perfect 5-of-5, and Tabb shot 5-of-6 from three.

Any teams not mentioned haven’t played an exhibition game as of yet. It’s looking like a good season for the SEC overall, although I’m thoroughly impressed with Tennessee playing without three key guys and still winning by 60. I realize this is a lower-division team, but this can only say good things for Tennessee’s depth. A couple of personal impressions made were Patrick Patterson for UK and Jarvis Varnado for MSU, similar playing types who look to be two of the best inside men in the conference either this year or next.

Here we go…

After months and months of anticipation and anxiety, the season is finally approaching. SEC games begin next week, so here’s how the predictions will play out.

Every week, score predictions for every SEC team and their games for that week will be released together.

In addition, my pick for or against the spread will come the day before the actual game - namely because the odds aren’t released until that point.

I will be keeping a running total of my percentages both win/loss but also versus the spread. These numbers will appear at the beginning of every prediction post.

With that said, we begin Week One!

Alabama

Friday, Nov. 09: Alabama (85) vs. Troy (49)

Troy loses four doube-figure scorers this season and will be absoutely outmatched from tipoff by the Tide’s defense.

Arkansas

Friday, Nov. 09: Arkansas (75) vs. Wofford (62)

Wofford is a height-disadvantaged team but brings back experience and talent - including All- Southern Conference Freshman Junior Salters. The Razorbacks will pull away after a closely-fought 30 minutes or so.

Auburn

Friday, Nov. 09: Auburn (75) @ Tulane (77)

Tulane is an experienced, talented squad and will own home-court advantage. I am on the fence with this one, but Lebo’s Tigers should fall short after losing Prowell to suspension and Dollard to redshirt.

Florida

Friday, Nov. 09: Florida (80) vs. North Dakota State (50)

North Dakota State will be heavily outmatched. Not much to say here.

Sunday, Nov. 11: Florida (74) vs. Tennessee Tech (61)

Tennessee Tech returns first-team all-OVC forward Amadi McKenzie but loses three starters. The Gators will struggle with Tech early, but pull away in the second half.

Georgia

Friday, Nov. 09: Georgia (74) vs. Jacksonville State (5

Jacksonville State returns three starters from a nine-win team. As long as the shots are falling for the Bulldogs, this game shouldn’t prove challenging.

Kentucky

Tuesday, Nov 06: Kentucky (89) vs. Central Arkansas (49)

Another case of absolute domination in the first-round game of the 2K Sports College Hoops Classic.

Wednesday, Nov. 07: TBA

Prediction will be made after result of first-round game.

LSU

No Game

Mississippi State

Saturday, Nov. 10: Mississippi State (95) vs. Louisiana Tech (49)

Tech returns one starter, Drew Washington (4.8ppg, 2.2rpg) from a 10-win team. Enough said.

Ole Miss

Saturday, Nov. 10: Ole Miss (69) vs. Mississippi Valley State (53)

Despite losing nearly every starter, the Rebels should only struggle with MVSU the first ten minutes or so. Kennedy will be looking to contain first-team all-SWAC Stanford Speech, who does it all for the Delta Devils.

South Carolina

Friday, Nov. 09: South Carolina (70) vs. South Carolina State (52)

Under their fourth new head-coach in three seasons, the SCSU Bulldogs have a limited amount of talent in their guards but very little inside presence.

Tennessee

Friday, Nov. 09: Tennessee (103) vs. Temple (79)

Temple has tons of shooters, and is led inside by senior forward Mark Tyndale who avergaed nearly 20 points per game. This should be a high-tempo game with lots of shooting from both sides.

Vanderbilt

Saturday, Nov. 10: Vanderbilt (73) vs. Austin Peay (70)

Upset alert on this one. AP returns all five starters from a 21-win, OVC championship squad. Ogilvy will have to prove his worth immediately inside to take advantage of Peay’s reliance on their guards. This should be a spectacularly entertaining game to watch.

So there you have it…picks versus the spreads to come!

2007-2008 Preseason Coach of the Year

And we move on…

2007-2008 SEC Preseason Coach of the Year

Billy Gillespie - Kentucky

Not often does a coach travel through the ranks from his first year at the helm of a Division 1-A program to the discussion of SEC Coach of the Year within a span of five years. Gillespie is simply that good.

Although Billy’s overall record is only 100-58, 24 of those losses came in his first year at the top spot at UTEP, where the team only won six games. That would be the end of any questions for the young, talented coach. The next year, the former Bill Self assistant took UTEP to a 24-8 record - tying the NCAA record for the biggest one-year turn-around of all-time. A Texas A&M program that had just suffered through a 0-16 conference “run” through the Big 12 noticed…and he was hired.

Gillespie took the Aggies to an 8-8 finish in conference play the next year, along with 21 wins overall. A&M again improved drastically the year after, going 10-6 in conference and achieving Billy’s second NCAA bid in three years. Last year, the head-coach won 27 games along with a Sweet Sixteen appearance.

Kentucky, “struggling” by their own statospheric expectations, began looking last season for a coach that could return the Wildcats to their former national prominence. Looks like they’ve found their man.

Coach Gillespie had a number of quality pieces of the puzzle to work with when he entered the Wildcat nation. He then began to recruit aggressively, and landed one of the highest-regarded freshman big-men in the nation: Patrick Patterson. With Patterson needed to fill the shoes of departing Randolph, the Wildcats are a bit guard-heavy, but not empty inside.

Kentucky, under Billy Gillespie’s direction, will compete for the overall SEC title this season - giving Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Arkansas all they can handle. And with Gillespie’s floor-coaching abilities, don’t count out a Final Four for this Kentucky team come March.

2007-2008 Preseason SEC Player of the Year

Apologies for the absence - times have been hectic. Now, on with the show…

2007-2008 SEC Preseason Player of the Year

Jamont Gordon (Miss. State - Point Guard - Junior - 16.0ppg, 7.1rpg, 5.3apg)

After an intense debate between Tennessee’s Lofton and Gordon, it was decided that Gordon was the more versatile and better all-around player.

Gordon, a power forward in high-school, committed to a Mississippi State team that was losing nearly every important contributor on the roster. A team that had seen four-straight NCAA tournaments, and some SEC overall and divisional titles thrown in the mix, but would be one of the youngest in the nation. With coach Rick Stansbury’s lack of a true point guard in the class, Gordon was hoisted into the position.

Predictably, the Tennessee-native and Top 30 pick out of high-school struggled with ball-handling. Despite a gaudy 13.8ppg, 6.8rpg, and 4.3apg, Gordon had an inate ability to turn the ball over at crucial points in big games. The result was a sub-.500 record on the year for the Bulldogs.

His sophomore season, however, would be a big one. After a non-conference performance very similar to his freshman campaign’s effort, Gordon transformed himself into a drive-and-dish point and Mississippi State excelled as a result. Gordon’s assist-to-turnover ratio was nearing 3-to-1 by late in the conference slate, and his numbers improved overall in every category: 16.0ppg, 7.1rpg, 5.3apg. Gordon also is nearing many records - including most assists dispersed - at Mississippi State with two years of eligibility left and recorded MSU’s second-ever triple-double versus then-17th-ranked Vanderbilt with 15 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. Although it was too little too late for the Bulldogs concerning the NCAA’s, they were rewarded with a #1 overall seed in the NIT where they fell one point short to eventual champion West Virginia of facing Clemson in the title game.

Gordon is now surrounded by a more experienced, talented, and deep squad. His natural ability to charge the basket, take fouls and follow through is unquestioned. Gordon has a mind-boggling first step that paralyzes any player brave enough to match up against him 1-on-1. The 6′4″, 230lb. guard is also built like a horse, and plenty tough enough to out-muscle his way past any point he’s matched up with. He’s improved his shot from the field - see last year’s last-second shot to send the game to overtime versus Kentucky in the SEC Tournament - and can literally score however he wants to.

The question for this ridiculously talented junior now is, how can he make his team better? He learned last season, but will that continue this coming season with Gordon now complimented by many more role-players than he is used to? If Jamont can avoid injury, look for his points to improve slightly to near 18ppg, his assists to improve greatly near 7 or 8 a game, and his rebounds to hover around the same.

If the Bulldogs compete as they are set to do, look for Gordon to be solidly listed as an All-American come March.

2007-2008 Preseason All-SEC Second Team

As we count them down, second team is our next stop…

All-SEC Second Team

Quantez Robertson (Auburn - Point Guard - Junior - 8.2ppg, 3.9rpg, 5.0apg, 1.7spg) - An outstanding pure point, Robertson has a remarkable eye for the floor and finding the open man. Robertson finished third in the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.26, and broke Auburn’s record for assists given in a career by his sophomore season. Not a great shooter - only 30.6% from the floor last season - but Quantez is the life and soul of the Tigers’ basketball team.

Charles Rhodes (Miss. State - Power Forward - Senior - 13.7ppg, 6.2rpg, 1.8bpg) - Rhodes is an impressive big man who can dominate down low when he wants to. “When he wants to” being the operative words there. Rhodes has the potential and talent to be one of the best all-around players in the conference, but suffers greatly from a large head and a small work ethic. If Rhodes can step up his rebounding numbers and give everything he’s got, there won’t be many who can stop him.

Joe Crawford (Kentucky - Shot Guard - Senior - 14.0ppg, 4.0rpg, 2.4apg) - One of only two seniors on the Wildcat roster this season, Crawford has battled a knee injury during the offseason which slowed his conditioning and practicing. If Crawford can rebound from the knee troubles, he looks to build on last season’s conference-game surge and continue to be relied on