ESPN Bracket Caster NCAA Tournament predictions…

ESPN has featured on its front page an Insider-provided element called the “Bracket Caster“, where you can see each team’s percentage shot of defeating any given team, and predicts the playout of the tournament. This very interesting simulation program takes lots of seemingly “intangibles”, including performances against similar teams, coaches’ records in similar situations in past NCAA Tournaments, teams’ experience, etc. Seems logical enough.

Here are the perecentages for first-round SEC games…

Arkansas over Indiana: 39%

Tennessee over American: 88%

Vanderbilt over Siena: 64%

Mississippi State over Oregon: 53%

Kentucky over Marquette: 30%

Georgia over Xavier: 25%

—With those posted, this is the predicted results for each team, with five simluations for each. The bracketed percentage is the chance that the SEC team would win the game.

When listing best possible scenarios, I chose a 25% chance of winning for the minimum requirement across the board. However, if that team wins with less than a 30% chance, their minimum required percentage chance of winning any game in the future was increased by 5% from that point up to 50% to eliminate any statistical improbabilities.

Tennessee

1. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Loses to (7) Butler [60%] 67-63 in second round.

2. Loses to (15) American [88%] 80-76 in first round.

3. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Defeats (10) South Alabama [73%] 72-64 in second round. Defeats (3) Louisville [53%] 69-66 in Sweet Sixteen. Loses to (4) Washington State [56%] 67-64 in Elite Eight.

4. Defeats (15) American [88%] 80-62 in first round. Defeats (7) Butler [60%] 67-62 in second round. Loses to (11) St. Joseph’s [78%] 72-68 in Sweet Sixteen.

5. Loses to (15) American [88%] 80-76 in first round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (15) American [88%] in first round, defeat (10) South Alabama [73%] in second round, defeat (11) St. Joseph’s [78%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat (4) Washington State [56%] in Elite Eight, defeat (1) Kansas [40%] in Final Four, defeat (1) UCLA [40%] in National Championship game.

Arkansas

1. Defeats ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.

2. Loses to ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round.

3. Defeats ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.

4. Defeats ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round. Loses to (1) North Carolina [21%] 74-65 in second round.

5. Loses to ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat ( Indiana [38%] 71-68 in first round, lose to (1) North Carolina [21%] in second round.

Vanderbilt

1. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.

2. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Defeats (12) Villanova [64%] 70-64 in second round. Defeats (1) Kansas [29%] 72-68 in Sweet Sixteen. Loses to (3) Wisconsin [40%] 66-62 in Elite Eight.

3. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round. Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.

4. Loses to (13) Siena [63%] 80-78 in first round.

5. Defeats (13) Siena [63%] 80-73 in first round.Loses to (5) Clemson [45%] 69-66 in second round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (13) Siena [63%] in first round, defeat (12) Villanova [64%] in second round, defeat (1) Kansas [30%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat () Kansas State [58%] in Elite Eight, defeat (4) Washington State [47%] in Final Four, defeat (1) UCLA [29%] in National Championship game.

Mississippi State

1. Loses to (9) Oregon [53%] 72-70 in first round.

2. Loses to (9) Oregon [53%] 72-70 in first round.

3. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.

4. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.

5. Defeats (9) Oregon [53%] 72-71 in first round. Loses to (1) Memphis 70-63 in second round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (9) Oregon [53%] in first round, defeat (1) Memphis [27%] in second round, defeat (12) Temple [58%] in Sweet Sixteen, defeat (11) Kentucky [59%] in Elite Eight, lose to (1) UCLA [23%] in Final Four.

Kentucky

1. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.

2. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.

3. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.

4. Loses to (6) Marquette [30%] 70-63 in first round.

5. Defeats (6) Marquette [30%] 70-65 in first round. Defeats (3) Stanford [31%] 67-66 in second round. Loses to (10) St. Mary’s-California [42%] 66-62 in Sweet Sixteen.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (6) Marquette [30%] in first round, defeat (3) Stanford [31%] in second round, defeat (10) St. Mary’s-California [42%] in Sweet Sixteen, Defeat (12) Temple [49%] in Elite Eight, Lose to (1) UCLA [13%] in Final Four.

Georgia

1. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

2. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

3. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

4. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

5. Lose to (3) Xavier [25%] 70-61 in first round.

Best possible realistic scenario: Defeat (3) Xavier [25%] in first round, defeat (11) Baylor [50%] in second round, defeat (7) West Virginia [34%] in Sweet Sixteen, lose to (1) UCLA [12%] in Elite Eight.

Round Two games…

Overall: 142-41 (77.6%)
Vs. Spread: 65-66 (49.6%)
Overall (SEC): 49-23 (68.1%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 32-39 (45.1%)
East vs. West: East, 25-11

In what was easily the most bizarre and memorable SEC Tournament quarterfinal round, an confirmed F2 tornado struck the Georgia Dome as Mississippi State held a small lead on Alabama in a hotly-contested overtime match. With about 2:30 on the clock, an enormous rumbling sound was heard as massive beams and catwalks began swaying violently. Soon, rips opened in the roof and holes were punched in the walls as the teams and their coaches were escorted off the court while crowds rushed away from the outside walls and towards the bottom of the building. When all was said and done, tons of debris had filtered onto the floor, and it took 64 minutes to get play back underway.

As a result of the structural damage to the building and the threat of further severe weather, the following Kentucky/Georgia matchup was postponed until Saturday. Because of the delay, Georgia and Kentucky will play at 11AM CT and the winner of that game will be forced to turn around and play Mississippi State at 6:30PM. As neither team is particularly deep, this certainly heavily favors MSU.

In addition, the location has been moved to the campus of Georgia Tech, which holds a maximum of approximately 40% of the Georgia Dome. As a result, no fans are being allowed inside, just players, coaches, cheerleaders, and bands. This is a disadvantage particularly to Kentucky, as I’ve heard as many as 20,000+ had made the trip for the SEC Tournament.

With all of that said, here are recaps of yesterday’s games.

(29-3, 15-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (14-18, 6-12) South Carolina [87]: Chris Lofton, who had shot just 1-of-9 from three-point, finished 2-of-10. That second made trey was the difference in the game, as he hit the shot with barely seconds left on the clock. This was a beautiful game offensively, as both teams executed magnificently to put points on the board. With that said, defense was equally as lacking in the game. Wayne Chism proved to be the difference-maker in the game for the Vols, scoring on 9-of-13 shots for 23 points and grabbing 7 boards, and even making 2-of-3 three-pointers. JuJuan Smith added 19 points and 5 rebounds, while Lofton finished with just 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting, despite hitting the game-winner. Downey and Fredrick carried the Gamecocks offensively, combining for 50 points while both took an unprecedented 20 shots from the floor. Downey hit 10 while Fredrick hit 8, while the ever-present Downey also put in 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals. Holmes played very well yet again, scoring 15 points and 11 rebounds for his 4th double-double in the past 7 games.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols continue their march forward, needing a win over Arkansas to secure a top-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: This loss, although it was a hard-fought one against a national-title contender, ends the year for the Gamecocks and Dave Odom’s coaching career.
Stat of the Game: Tennessee’s 27 assists to USC’s 13

(21-10, 10-7) Arkansas [81] vs. (26-7, 11-7) #18 Vanderbilt [75]: The Razorbacks simply came out more focused and played with more effort in this game, and outrebounded the Commodores by what was one of the biggest rebounding margins in the SEC this year. As a result, the ‘Backs were afforded 18 more attempts from the floor. Arkansas didn’t shoot well, but three-pointers - Vanderbilt’s keystone - wouldn’t fall for the ‘Dores and Arkansas won a relatively easy decision in comparison to the other SEC games. Gary Ervin tied a team-high with 18 points on a nice 5-of-7 shooting performance and 7-of-7 from the charity stripe. Darian Townes also contributed 18 points, his on 8-of-13 shooting, and claimed 7 rebounds. Patrick Beverly continued to struggle with his shot, hitting just 3-of-11 shots while Weems struggled even more, hitting just 1-of-9. Alex Gordon was the unusual scoring leader for Vanderbilt, leading all scorers in the game with 22 points on 5-of-10 shooting from behind the arc. Ogilvy played decently with 14 points and 7 rebounds, but the ever-reliable Foster shot just 4-of-10 and 2-of-7 from three.
Impact [Arkansas]: If there was any doubt that the Razorbacks were in the NCAA Tournament, with a #31 RPI and a win over the RPI’s #11 team, this game solidified those doubts. Not just that, but the ‘Backs might have moved into a 7 or 8 seed with a win over a ranked team, although the team is 5-5 over their last 10.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: Vanderbilt’s NCAA fate was long since sealed up, but the ‘Dores did themselves no favors seeding-wise by dropping a game to a lower future NCAA seed. A 3 seed seemed possible, but not a 4 or 5 seems likely.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ tremendous 43-20 rebounding advantage

(22-9, 13-4) Mississippi State [69] vs. (17-16, 6-12) Alabama [67]: Mississippi State has become familiar with dramatic endings as of late, and this was no exception. Amidst a direct hit by a now-confirmed F2 tornado, the Bulldogs managed a heart-stopping 2-point win in overtime as a last-second Riley three bounced out of the rim. MSU jumped out to an early lead and looked to dominate the game, but Alabama soon shifted to a zone defense and took complete control. State’s rebounding and defense eventually won out, though this was an intensely exciting game. All-SEC First Teamer Jamont Gordon has scored 20+ points in three-straight games now with his 23 points in this one, hitting 7-of-18 shots, grabbing 9 boards, and handing out 4 assists but turning the ball over 5 times. Varnado, who leads the nation in blocked shots, swatted just 3 shots but pulled down his sixth double-double of the season with 10 points and 11 rebounds, while fellow All-SEC First Team selection Charles Rhodes scored 15 points and recorded 8 rebounds, but turned the ball over 6 times. Mykal Riley led the Tide in scoring with 18 points, but shot just 5-of-16 from the floor and 4-of-12 from three. Hendrix put his 17th double-double of the season on the stat sheet, with 15 points and a game-high 13 rebounds. Gee shot just 3-of-10 but managed 10 points.
Impact [Miss. State]: The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are proving they can find ways to win. While seeding looks to be a 5 or 6 at the moment, a tournament final appearance or title win could bump that to a 4.
Impact [Alabama]: While the Tide only have 17 wins and are barely above .500 on the year, two wins over quality wins and a close loss to MSU make the team a distant threat for an at-large bid for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Alabama’s 31.8% shooting

SEC Tournament Break-Down

Now that the seeds are set and the Southeastern Conference’s 49th all-time league tournament is set to begin this Thursday, March 13th, here is a breakdown of each matchup, predictions for their outcomes, and the times they will be playing. The number following the “#” is that squad’s seeding in their division, and the numeral in brackets is the team’s RPI, per www.kenpom.com.

All SEC Tournament games except for the Final Round will be televised by Raycom Sports, and the Final Round will be televised nationally by CBS.

1st Round

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #5: 13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [#139] vs. (West #4: 13-17, 6-10) LSU [#159]

Offense: Advantage - South Carolina: The Gamecocks don’t shoot particularly well overall, but put up a ton of shots by forcing turnovers. USC is also lethal from three, where they rank third in the conference at 36.7% as a team. The Tigers rank near the bottom of the conference in points per game and field-goal percentage.

Defense: Advantage - LSU: The Tigers’ defense has been above average all year, built around the blocking prowess of both Johnson and Randolph. LSU ranks second in the conference in blocks per game and fourth in field-goal percentage defense, but tend to allow a lot of opponent attempts by turning the ball over and missing offensive rebounding opportunities.

Playmakers: Advantage - LSU: Both teams are short on depth, but the Tigers seem to be more talented overall with All-SEC Freshman candidate Anthony Randolph inside who ranks 3rd in the conference in both rebounding and blocks. Marcus Thornton recently put up 38 points on Mississippi State and has proven to be a lethal all-around scorer, ranking 2nd in the conference in scoring with 19.7 points per game and in the top 15 with a 43.6% field goal percentage. Chris Johnson has proven to be formidable inside as well, ranking 2nd in blocking. The main playmaker for USC is without a doubt Rivals.com First-Team All-SEC Devan Downey, who’s quickness and talented ball-handling is hard to keep from driving the basket. Downey ranks 2nd in the conference in scoring, but doesn’t take the best-advaised shots as he doesn’t rank in the top 15 field-goal percentages. Downey also takes care of the ball well, handing out 5.2 assists to just 2.8 turnovers, ranking 4th in that category.

Depth: Advantage - South Carolina: Although neither team is particularly strong in this area, USC regularly rotates 8 men and has 2 more backups while the Tigers rotate 8 men but have just 1 more usable backup.

Intangibles: Advantage - LSU: Both teams have some things going for them. While Dave Odom will be coaching in his final SEC Tournament that has seen Odom receive his fair share of success, the Tigers have lifted the Brady “weight” off of their shoulders and have been playing inspired basketball, winning 4 of their last 5. Butch Pierre has done a great job at reorganizing the Tigers’ rotation off the bench and creating more offense.

Bottom Line: This will be a game dominated by two or three players with a load of role-players mixed in. The outcome will likely be dictated by USC’s Holmes and LSU’s Randolph inside and USC’s Downey and LSU’s Thornton from the outside. Whichever team can keep the other’s main scorer out of the paint will win the game, although the Tigers will need to keep a handle on their turnovers also.

Prediction: LSU wins, 70-64: The Tigers’ Randolph will prove to be the difference-maker, scoring almost at will inside the paint while Downey will still manage to put up more than 20 points. A close game favors LSU, who leads the conference in free-throw shooting percentage.

3:15 PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #6: 14-15, 4-12) Auburn [#154] vs. (East #3: 25-6, 10-6) Vanderbilt [#10]

Offense: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores are one of the most potent offenses in the conference, averaging 80.4 points per game and leading the conference in three-point percentage at 40.2%. The Tigers rank near the bottom in almost every offensive category.

Defense: Advantage - Vanderbilt: Neither team is known for their defense, but the Tigers have been horrid. Auburn’s field-goal percentage defense is nearly 3% worse than any other SEC team’s, although Vanderbilt’s scoring defense is slightly worse.

Playmakers: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores have the likely SEC Player of the Year in Shan Foster and SEC Freshman of the Year candidate AJ Ogilvy. Foster leads the conference in scoring with 20.6 points per game and 9th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Ogilvy has proven to be a threat offensively as well, leading SEC freshman with 16.7 points per game and 3rd among SEC freshman with 6.8 rebounds per game. Auburn’s Quantez Robertson is one of the most underrated point guards, handing out 4.2 assists to just 1.8 turnovers per game, ranking 2nd in the conference in that category.

Depth: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The Commodores have recruited well, and it shows. The ‘Dores regularly rotate 10 men into play, with 1 more off the bench while Auburn rotates 8 with 1 off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage - Vanderbilt: The ‘Dores are currently ranked 17th in the nation and are a popular pick for the Sweet 16. Morale is low in Auburn, as the Tigers haven’t seen the postseason in quite some time.

Bottom Line: This game will be full of offense, as neither team plays much defense. An offensive game easily favors Vanderbilt, as the Commodores have been scoring nearly at will all season long. With Auburn’s severe lack of talent and depth, this game could get ugly.

Prediction: Vanderbilt wins, 94-75: At least 9 or 10 players will get on the scoreboard for Vanderbilt, as this game becomes a route early on. Because of a lesser need for him, Foster doesn’t have a remarkable game, scoring around 15 points.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #5: 16-15, 5-11) Alabama [#117] vs. (East #4: 21-10, 8- Florida [#65]

Offense: Advantage - Florida: The Gators are loaded with offensively-talented freshman, ranking 4th in the conference in scoring average and lead the conference in field-goal percentage. The Tide rank near the middle of the conference in all offensive categories.

Defense: Advantage - Alabama: These two teams are possibly the worst defensive teams in the conference, but the Tide have a slight edge in percentages and a sizeable lead in blocks/steals per game. Richard Hendrix probably gives this advantage to Alabama on his own.

Playmakers: Advantage - Alabama: Richard Hendrix, as you all know by now, is possibly my favorite SEC player. He’s practically unstoppable under the rim, even against arguably the nation’s best defender in MSU’s Jarvis Varnado. Hendrix ranks 4th in the conference in scoring, 1st in rebounding (the only SEC player to average a double-double), 3rd in field-goal percentage, and 5th in blocking. Hendrix is a beast, and possibly the best all-around player in the conference. ‘Bama’s Riley is also underestimated, ranking 2nd in the conference in three-point shooting, while Gee is an unpredictable but dynamic play-maker. Florida has their share of talent as well, as freshman Nick Calathes easily leads the conference in assists per game with 6.1, and ranks 3rd in assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s a scoring point, though, leading his team in scoring with 15.9 points per game. Speights can also dominate a game inside, ranking 4th in rebounding and 2nd in field-goal percentage.

Depth: Advantage - Alabama: While both teams are relatively deep, Florida relies more on its talented youth while the Tide have some more experienced players and cycle more men into the game. 9 Bama players regularly see playing time with 2 usable backups, while 9 Gators see common playing time but none are usable off of the bench.

Intangibles: Advantage - Florida: The Gators will be playing for their NCAA lives and are coached by possibly the SEC’s best coach, while the Tide are struggling to even reach the NIT and have fell short of already-low expectations.

Bottom Line: This is yet another game that will see very little defense and be controlled by offense. Alabama simply won’t have the offense to keep up with the potent Gators, although Hendrix will likely have a huge game against Speights inside. The game will be close, but Alabam’s free throw shooting will cost them the game.

Prediction: Florida wins, 80-72: The game will come down to the final minute, as Alabama will miss key free throws to hand Florida the game.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(East #6: 13-16, 4-12) Georgia [#152] vs. (West #3: 21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [#42]

Offense: Advantage - Ole Miss: The Bulldogs’ offense is the most anemic in the conference, scoring just 67.8 points per game. Conversely, the Rebels have proven to execute an efficient offense, ranking third in the conference in scoring, although the Rebs rank 9th in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Georgia - Both teams play decent defense, but the Bulldogs’ scoring defense gives them the edge, as they rank 4th in the conference with 67.2 points per outing. All of the remaining statistics are very similar.

Playmakers: Advantage - Ole Miss: Neither team is overloaded with talent, but the Rebels have a clear advantage with SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Chris Warren and vastly overlooked big-man Dwayne Curtis on the interior. Warren has tremendous speed but still has work to do on his decision-making skills, leading the team in scoring but shooting just 39.6% from the field and turning the ball over nearly 3 times a game. Curtis ranks 2nd in the conference with an impressive 9.3 rebounds per game and leads the SEC in field-goal percentage, shooting 64.6% on the season. For Georgia, Sundiata Gaines is the key to the team’s offense, putting up over 12 attempts per game, grabbing 6.3 rebounds per game, and ranking 6th in the conference with 4.2 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game. Gaines’ main drawback is free-throw shooting, as he hits just 57.3% of his shots from the charity stripe.

Depth: Advantage - Ole Miss: Both teams have some talent on the bench, but the Rebels have more, as both cycle in 10 men regularly with 1 legitimate backup.

Intangibles: Advantage - Ole Miss: The Rebels absolutely must win this game to reach the NCAA, and they know it. Felton has struggled with off-the-court issues, and the Rebels simply have more to play for.

Bottom Line: When it comes to crunch time, Georgia won’t have the offense to keep up with the Rebels. Curtis should have a monster game, scoring 15-20+ points and 10+ rebounds, as Bliss is not necessarily a threat defensively.

Prediction: Ole Miss wins, 76-67: This game shouldn’t be as close as the score looks, as the Rebels should take control in the second half as the Bulldogs lose any offensive momentum they may have created in the first.

2nd Round

Since the second round depends on who wins in the first, here is a breakdown of each squad who received a bye, both strengths and weaknesses.

1:00PM ET, 12:00PM CT

(East #1: 28-3, 14-2) Tennessee [#1] vs. (Winner of [E5] South Carolina vs. [W4] LSU)

Offense: The Vols have boasted a tremendously potent offense from the very beginning of the season, averaging a league-leading 82.5 points per game. Surprisingly, the Vols rank just 8th in field-goal perentage and 5th from behind the arc, but utilize great offensive rebounding (2nd) and turnover-forcing (1st) to attempt 236 more shots from the floor than their opponents. The squad also shares the ball remarkably well, averaging over 18 assists per game to lead the SEC in that category as well.

Defense: Although the common conception is that a great speed-based offense like Tennessee lacks on defense, this is very untrue for the Vols. The team’s scoring defense ranks a decent 6th, but the key is three-point defense as the team leads the conference quite comfortably in that category, with a 30.5% mark. Forced turnovers are the key to Tennessee’s high-intensity, high-pressure defense, which leads into easy buckets.

Playmakers: The Volunteers are very talented and well-balanced, as despite leading the league in scoring as a team no player averages more than 16 points per game. Chris Lofton, a preseason All-American selection, is that 16ppg scorer, although he manages those points on 11.9 attempts per game as opposed to percentages, as his shooting percentage from the floor doesn’t rank in the top 15 in the conference. Lofton does, however, lead the SEC in free-throw percentage shooting, hitting 84.2% of his attempts. Tyler Smith has claimed his mark as one of the best big-men in the conference, leading his team in rebounding and ranking 8th in the conference in shooting percentage. JuJuan Smith is extremely dynamic but sometimes out of control, though he shoots a respectable 45.2% from the floor. JuJuan also ranks 5th in the SEC in steals per game.

Depth: Tennessee is one of the deepest teams in the conference, with 11 players seeing consistent playing time and 1 other seeing some amount of time off the bench.

Intangibles: Everything is going right for one fo the nation’s top teams, with two or three potential All-SEC First Teamers and SEC Coach of the Year candidate. A Final Four seems a distcint possibility, as does bringing home the Southeastern Conference’s third-straight men’s basketball national title.

Prediction: The Vols have a great chance at winning the conference tournament and going on to an NCAA Tournament 1-seed.

3:15PM ET, 2:15PM CT

(West #2: 20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [#43] vs. (Winner of [W6] Auburn vs. [E3] Vanderbilt)

Offense: Arkansas is a defense-oriented team who likes to slow the ball down. The team’s scoring margin is mediocre at best, although the percentages are good as most of the team’s scoring comes from inside the paint. The team doesn’t share the ball exceptionally well, and does not shoot well from three as a whole.

Defense: The Razorbacks have been battling MSU for the top spot defensively all season, as the team is loaded with quality big-men. Arkansas ranks 3rd in scoring defense, field-goal percentage defense, and three-point defense as well as blocks per game.

Playmakers: Sonny Weems is the team’s shooting specialist, leading the squad in scoring with 14.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the conference in field-goal percentage. Reigning SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Beverly is the conference’s 3rd-most efficient three-point shooter at 40.1%, and Steven Hill ranks 4th in blocks per game. This team doesn’t have many stand-outs, as the effort is usually well-balanced.

Depth: Arkansas is also very deep, as 10 players see regular playing time but no others come off the bench.

Intangibles: The ‘Backs are another team looking to ensure their NCAA hopes, and a win against a very talented Vanderbilt team would do it. Arkansas has lost 5 of their last 8, however, and this will be Pelphrey’s first SEC Tournament. How will the seniors respond in their last SEC Tournament?

Prediction: The Razorbacks should be able to defeat the Commodores, as Vanderbilt hasn’t been able to hit their threes away from home. The ‘Backs would likely fall hard to the Volunteers, however.

7:30PM ET, 6:30PM CT

(West #1: 21-9, 12-4) Mississippi State [#38] vs. (Winner of [W5] Alabama vs. [E4] Florida)

Offense: While MSU is widely known to be a very talented team defensively, the squad’s offensive presence has been lost in the shuffle. Although State’s scoring offense ranks just 6th, the team’s field-goal percentage ranks 3rd. The Bulldogs are not adept at three-point shooting, however, nor sharing the ball - ranking 9th and 8th in those categories, respectively. In SEC play, MSU leads the conference in field-goal percentage.

Defense: Well-known at this point, Mississippi State’s field-goal percentage defense ranks atop the SEC and 2nd in the country behind Georgetown, at 36.9%. Absolutely suffocating on defense, the team also ranks 2nd in three-point defense, 1st in scoring defense, and 1st in blocks per game (and also 2nd in the NCAA in that category, behind Connecticut). State’s length and athleticism makes every point scored against them difficult.

Playmakers: The Bulldogs have arguably the most talented starting 5 in the conference, with SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon leading the way. Charles Rhodes is a legitimate All-SEC First-Teamer, Jarvis Varnado leads the nation in blocks per game and is set to challenge Shaq’s all-time SEC blocks record as a sophomore, and both Stewart and Hansbrough are able to put up 20+ points on any given night. Gordon ranks 5th in the conference in scoring while Rhodes ranks 7th, while Varnado ranks 5th in rebounds and Rhodes ranks 6th. Rhodes is a very efficient shooter, even with face to the basket, ranking 6th in the conference in shooting percentage, while Gordon ranks 3rd in assists per game. Hansbrough also ranks in the top 10 in three-point percentage and 3-pointers made per game. This team is very well-balanced, with an offensive big-man, defensive big-man, penetrating guard, and two shooters.

Depth: The Bulldogs have lots of depth on the bench, with a regular rotation cycle of 10 players and 1 off the bench.

Intangibles: State has been on the brink of being ranked throughout the season, and have won 7 of their last 9. The ‘Dawgs seem to work well under the “underdog” mentality, and have the balance and depth to make a run in both postseason tournaments.

Prediction: State hasn’t lost a game to either of their potential second-round matchups, and have only dropped one game out of the total potential matchups in the semifinal round. State seems to be a good bet for the SEC Tournament finals, where a rematch with Tennessee should be an exciting game - although I’d pick the Vols to take that game, as UT won in Starkville in the teams’ previous matchup.

9:45PM ET, 8:45PM CT

(West #2: 18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [#49] vs. (Winner of [E6] Georgia vs. [W3] Ole Miss)

Offense: Offense hasn’t been a specialty for the Wildcats, as the team ranks 10th in scoring offense for the season in the conference. The slow-paced offense shoots well, though, ranking 3rd in field-goal percentage and 2nd from behind the arc. The problem is rebounding, as the ‘Cats haven’t been able to take many shots from the floor and ranking last in turnover margin.

Defense: The Wildcat defense is a typical hard-nosed Kentucky defense, ranking 2nd in scoring defense allowed and field-goal percentage defense. What the team doesn’t do, however, is force turnovers very well, which when combined with poor ball-handling results in easy buckets for the opponent.

Playmakers: Three Wildcats score 16 points a game or more, although surprisingly only one of them has really captured the media’s attention. That player is SEC Freshman of the Year candidate Patrick Patterson, who is no longer with the team after a fractured foot, and won’t be back until next season. Stevenson has handled the loss well, stepping up to record a couple of double-doubles in his absence. The other two top scorers are Crawford and Bradley, who are a couple of the more underestimated players in the league. Crawford ranks 6th in the conference in scoring and 10th in field-goal perecentage, while Bradley ranks 2nd in free-throw percentage.

Depth: Injuries have plagued the Wildcats, who now cycle just 8 men regularly and sub 3 others.

Intangibles: Survival is the key word here, as the Wildcats absolutely must win at least one game in the conference tournament to keep their NCAA hopes alive. The team’s resurgence has been impressive, and the squad seems to be handling the loss of Patterson quite well. Needless to say, the Wildcats have had an immense amount of success in their history in Atlanta.

Prediction: UK should be able to handle either Georgia or Ole Miss, although the Rebels could be a potential mismatch. Next up would likely be Mississippi State, who the Wildcats particularly do not match up well against.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 141-38 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-63 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 48-20 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-36 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-10

Next up will be a complete and utter breakdown of every team and their SEC Tournament matchups.

Saturday Games

(16-15, 5-11) Alabama [78] vs. (25-6, 10-6) #16 Vanderbilt [73]: This game will drop the Commodores a seed or two, as the ‘Dores have a less-than-stellar 6-6 record in road/neutral courts on the year and this being arguably the worst such loss. Vanderbilt simply couldn’t find any offense against a practically non-existent Alabama defense, shooting just 38.2% from the field. Riley came up huge for the Tide, scoring a game-high 26 points on 6-of-13 from long range and grabbing 10 boards for his second double-double of the season and Hendrix was actually outshined by Ogilvy and still put up his 16th double-double of the season with 12 points and 11 rebounds. Gee did was he does best - put up enough shots to score some points but not shoot particularly well, shooting 5-of-12 and 2-of-5 from long range for 16 points. Shan Foster came off of his 42-point blowup against Mississippi State by notching 21 in this loss, shooting 7-of-16. Ogilvy contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the season.
Impact [Alabama]: The postseason isn’t completely out of the question for the Tide now, if the squad could get hot and win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament. That will have to go through Florida and Mississippi State, however.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a significant loss for Vanderbilt, who proved that down the stretch when it counts the most, the ‘Dores can’t win on the road - even against a lesser opponent. That will not be looked upon kindly by the selection committee, and Vandy needs to win at least a game in the SEC Tournament to counter that image. As for specifics, I’d say the Commodores fell from a 3 or 4 seed to a 5 or 6 seed with this loss.
Stat of the Game: Vanderbilt’s 7-of-25 shooting from long range (28.0%)

(13-16, 4-12) Georgia [62] vs. (21-9, 7-9) Ole Miss [76]: Another case of a weak defensive team suddenly holding their opponent to poor shooting, as the Rebels held Georgia to a 30.8% effort from the floor. This was a desperately-needed statement win for the Rebels, who are trying to claw their way into NCAA Tournament consideration. Now just two games under .500 in the conference, 21 wins overall, and another road win under their belt, the Rebels could very well be on the good side of the bubble. Five Rebels scored between 15 and 10 points, led by Warren and Curtis with 15. Parnell had an unusually successful game as well, notching 13 points and a team-high 7 rebounds. Woodbury led the Bulldogs with 18 points as Gaines did more harm than good by putting up 21 attempts and only hitting 5, although he did claim 7 rebounds.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little, as the postseason is out of the question for the Bulldogs without a conference tournament title.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels are suddenly back in the thick of the NCAA discussion after three-straight wins, including one over likely NCAA-bound Arkansas and a road win. A win in the conference tournament would likely make the Rebs a lock for the Big Dance.
Stat of the Game: Gaines’ 5-of-21 shooting (23.8%)

(21-9, 12-4) #25 Mississippi State [84] vs. (13-17, 6-10) LSU [75]: This game was closer than the Bulldogs would have liked, as the Tigers led by 1 at halftime. The ‘Dawgs did what they have been doing during the conference season, though, and found a way to win. This was also a stereotypical MSU game in terms of defense and blocking, as State did both well - swatting 10 shots as a team to capture the SEC’s single-season block record. In his last home game, senior Charles Rhodes scored a team-high 27 points and 10 rebounds as he’s been on a serious roll as of late, recording his ninth double-double of the season and second in a row. For the second game in a row, Gordon joined Rhodes in the 20+ points collumn with 23 points and 9 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, knocked away 7 shots. Marcus Thornton tried to go Shan Foster on State again, hitting three consecutive threes late in the game to pull within four, but then started missing. He finished with a tie for career-high 38 points on 6-of-12 shooting from three while Randolph notched 14 points and 10 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season.
Impact [Miss. State]: Avoiding the let-down loss was the main concern for State at this point, as a game or two in the SEC Tournament could result in a 5-seed or better.
Impact [LSU]: With the loss, the West’s four-seed is where the Tigers will fall, which is substantially better than they seemed to have been heading for just a couple of weeks ago. No postseason is possible without winning the SEC Tournament title.
Stat of the Game: The league’s three top shot-blockers in action: Varnado (7), Johnson (1), and Randolph (1)

(20-10, 9-7) Arkansas [77] vs. (14-15, 4-12) Auburn [64]: This game appeared to be headed towards the blowout I expected at halftime, where the Razorbacks held a 45-26 lead. But some backups got minutes and the lead shrunk a bit, but this was a complete mismatch from the beginning. Arkansas destroyed the Tigers on the boards, shot remarkably well from all spots on the floor, and the ‘Backs big-men had their way inside. Beverly shot to his potential for the third-straight game, hitting 9-of-11 from the floor and 6-of-6 from behind the arc for 27 points along with grabbing 8 rebounds, while Darian Townes hit 6-of-7 shots to score 12 points and claimed a season-high 14 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Frank Tolbert was Auburn’s main offensive weapon, as he sank 7-of-12 shots, grabbed 4 rebounds, and handed out 5 assists but turned the ball over 5 times for 17 points.
Impact [Arkansas]: The Razorbacks might have secured an at-large NCAA bid with this win, guaranteeing themselves a + .500 SEC record. The squad’s performance in the SEC Tournament will determine the seed, which could be as low as a 10 or 9, or as high as a 7 or 8.
Impact [Auburn]: Time to get the hands hot, because winning the conference tournament is the Tigers’ only shot at the postseason.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ big-men hitting 14-of-22 (63.6%) shots total

Sunday Games

(18-11, 12-4) Kentucky [75] vs. (21-10, 8- Florida [70]: In this crucial battle-of-the-bubble game, the Wildcats held onto their lead despite a late charge by the Gators. Surprisingly, Florida heavily outrebounded Kentucky, but succombed to their defensive prowess and showed none of their own as the ‘Cats shot very well from the floor. Kentucky’s lack of depth was apparent, as only six Wildcats scored, as Stevenson led the Blue in scoring…stepping up nicely in the abscense of Patterson. Stevenson put up 18 points on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting effort and 10 rebounds for his third double-double of the campaign, needless to mention blocking 5 shots. Crawford had an off-day shooting-wise, hitting just 7-of-17 shots and 2-of-7 from three, and Bradley handed out 7 assists but turned the ball over 4 times. Speights is becoming a star for Florida, with another 20-point outing on 8-of-11 shooting and 8 rebounds, and Calathes continues to be reliable with 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting and 6 assists to just 2 turnovers. The Gators aren’t terribly deep, but are very, very talented.
Impact [Kentucky]: This is a remarkable situation, really. As of now, there simply can’t be an informed observer of the sport that would say Kentucky isn’t an NCAA-quality team. But with a questionable RPI and two terrible losses (three if you count the 40+ embarassment to Vanderbilt), will 12 SEC wins but just 18 overall wins be enough? My guess is yes, but a win against either Ole Miss or Georgia would solidify their stake.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators are about on the same spot on the bubble as Kentucky is at this point. The RPI is certainly not favorable and the strength of schedule is miserable, but Florida managed to go .500 in a power conference and win 21 games. I’d say the Gators are in a slightly worse position than the Wildcats, as at least one win the SEC Tournament will be necessary for NCAA inclusion.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 28-of-48 shooting (58.3%)

(28-3, 14-2) #4 Tennessee [89] vs. (13-17, 5-11) South Carolina [56]: The story of this blowout is how close the game was at halftime. At the midpoint, the Vols were nursing a 38-37 lead. From that point on, Tennessee outscored the Gamecocks 51-19 the rest of the way, and finishing up outrebounding their opponents by 18. Lofton has gotten in touch with his talent recently, scoring 28 points in this win on 10-of-16 shooting and 6-of-10 from long range to go along with 4 steals. JuJuan Smith was the only other Vol scoring in double digits in this well-balanced Volunteer assault with 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting and 9 rebounds. Holmes has truly stepped up for South Carolina in the past six games, as he’s scored in double digits in five of those and posted double-doubles in three of them. In this contest, Holmes recorded 15 points and 9 rebounds, while Downey had a tough day shooting 1-of-9 put also dishing out 9 assists.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols remain an obvious pick for a #1 seed, and should remain that way as long as they reach the finals of the SEC Tournament.
Impact [South Carolina]: The postseason is an impossibilty unless the Gamecocks manage to win the SEC Tournament - which I wouldn’t completely rule out, as Odom has a history of success in it.

Wednesday games…

Overall: 139-36 (79.4%)
Vs. Spread: 64-59 (52.0%)
Overall (SEC): 46-18 (71.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 31-32 (49.2%)
East vs. West: East, 22-8

With the last set of regular-season games coming up, posts will soon begin focus on postseason play.

(13-16, 5-10) South Carolina [63] vs. (17-11, 11-4) Kentucky [71]: Kentucky’s lack of depth again became apparent, and yet the team won another road game. Without Patterson, rebounding wasn’t a strength (the teams tied) for the Wildcats, but the squad’s shooting was phenomenal. Crawford brought down a season-high 35 points on 10-of-19 shooting, while Bradley scored 20 points on 6-of-11 shooting. The team’s two remaining big-men, Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson, took a combined 5 attempts from the floor - making it increasingly obvious Kentucky has abandoned any attempts at running some offense through the post. That will work as long as you’re playing against a guard-oriented team like USC and your own guards are shooting over 50%, but I suspect the team will fold against a bigger, more substantial team. Downey took much less responsibility than usual, shooting only 9 times, while Fredrick led the Gamecocks with 19 points. Holmes, who has really stepped up in SEC play, recorded his third double-double with 16 points and a game-high 10 rebounds.
Impact [South Carolina]: The Gamecocks won’t be seeing the postseason without a miracle run in the SEC Tournament.
Impact [Kentucky]: With their 11th SEC win but just 17 wins overall, the Wildcats still seem like a wild-card for the NCAA Tournament. Florida at home is an absolute must-win, and a game in the SEC Tournament would certainly help. Lose in the next two games, and the ‘Cats will be headed for the NIT.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 56.4% shooting

(14-14, 4-11) Auburn [54] vs. (13-15, 4-11) Georgia [59]: While this would have been a big road win for Felton’s squad earlier in the year, it was a non-factor at this point in the season. As most teams do against the Tigers, Georgia rebounded well and turned the ball over too much. Auburn’s sudden lack of shooting prowess was the story of the game, as the team put up an entirely unneccessary 31 threes and only hit 9 of them. Sophomore Albert Jackson suddenly stepped up for the Bulldogs, scoring a season-high 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting and 8 rebounds. Gaines didn’t have a particularly impressive game, shooting just 2-of-8 for 11 points. Tolbert was again the Tigers’ lead scorer, but just with 12 points on 3-of-10 shooting. Prowell contributed 11 points and 7 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers should be looking towards next season at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: The Bulldogs are in the same boat as the Tigers.
Stat of the Game: Auburn’s 19.4% three-point shooting

(13-16, 6-9) LSU [80] vs. (15-15, 4-11) Alabama [74]: This game was very stereotypical for both teams, as Hendrix was a load inside for the Tide but wasn’t able to win the game by himself and LSU’s depth problems led to two 20+ scorers. Alabama dominated the rebounding collumn, while the Tigers shared the ball well and blocked an impressive 14 shots. Anthony Randolph led all scorers with a season-high 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting and a perfect 9-of-9 from the charity stripe. Marcus Thornton wasn’t far behind with 27 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three, while Chris Johnson neared a triple-double with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 blocks - his fourth double-double of the season and third in the past four games. The rest of the LSU team totalled 13 points. Hendrix notched his 15th double-double of the season with 16 points and 13 rebounds, while Jemison was a nice complement with 14 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [LSU]: The Tigers have won four games in a row and suddenly placed themselves two games out of last place in the division and are competing for the three seed heading into the SEC Tournament. Unfortunately, it will be too little too late without a SEC Tournament title.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide continue to be tied with Auburn and Georgia for the title of the conference’s worst team.
Stat of the Game: Randolph/Thornton taking 64.7% of LSU’s shot attempts

(25-5, 10-5) #16 Vanderbilt [86] vs. (20-9, 11-4) #25 Mississippi State [85]: This was one of the wildest games of the season. The Bulldogs seemed to control the entire game, leading almost all of it, but the immensely talented Shan Foster suddenly caught fire from three after missing six-straight to hit nine in a row, including one to send the game to overtime and another to win the game. The Commodores finish the season undefeated at home in a thriller, as Foster scored the second-most points in Vandy history: 42. Foster finished 16-of-25 from the field and 9-of-15 from three, needless to mention his five rebounds. His unbelievable display of leadership and shooting prowess against the nation’s second-ranked defense almost certainly has guaranteed him SEC Player of the Year, despite his rival Jamont Gordon scoring 24 points and 8 rebounds. Senior Charles Rhodes put up 22 points and 14 rebounds for his 8th double-double of the season for the Bulldogs, but none of this was enough to stop Foster from hitting contested threes to win the game. MSU had a couple of opportunities in both regulation and overtime to ice the game from the free throw line, but continuously hit one out of two to allow Foster to keep raining threes. My question would be…if he’s hit 6 in a row and you’re up by four in the final minute, wouldn’t you start fouling?
Impact [Vanderbilt]: This was a huge win for Vanderbilt, as a 3-seed remains possible. However, a 3-seed in the SEC Tournament may still be waiting unless Kentucky stumbles on Saturday.
Impact [Mississippi State]: The Bulldogs desperately needed the signiture win to improve their seeding. With the emotional overtime loss, the ‘Dawgs now face an LSU team on a 4-game win-streak at home with the SEC Tournament to follow. If there was a definition of a trap-game, this would be it.
Stat of the Game: What else? 42 points, 9-of-15 from three. State’s 53.6% free throw effort could be included, however.

(21-9, 8-7) Florida [86] vs. (27-3, 13-2) #4 Tennessee [89]: The Gators seemed to have solid control of this game even into the second half, leading by at least 13, but the Vols buckled down and went on a run to force a close win late. Most surprising was Tennessee’s lack of defense, allowing the Gators to shoot 59.6% on the game. Both teams posted two players with more than 20 points, as JuJuan Smith and Chris Lofton put up 23 and 21 points respectively for the Vols. The two shot a combined 8-of-15 from three and 15-of-24 from the field. Calathes led the Gators with 24 points but an even more impressive 9 assists, while Speights shot a perfect 8-of-8 for 21 points and 8 rebounds.
Impact [Florida]: Dropping a close home game that would have sealed an NCAA bid is a heart-breaker for the Gators, as a trip to Lexington is next. That game could very well be a must-win for Florida’s NCAA chances.
Impact [Tennessee]: With the tough road win, the Vols remain a solid pick for a #1 seed, depending on the outcome of the SEC Tournament.
Stat of the Game: The two teams’ combined 55.5% shooting efforts

Tuesday game, Wednesday odds…

Overall: 136-34 (80.0%)
Vs. Spread: 62-56 (52.5%)
Overall (SEC): 43-16 (72.9%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 29-29 (50.0%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Tuesday Game

(20-9, 6-9) Ole Miss [81] vs. (19-10, 8-7) Arkansas [72]: This was a case of those not-as-close-as-they-look games, as the Rebels held a firm grasp on the game from very early on until the Razrbacks made a late charge. Arkansas’ road woes continued against the Rebels, as the ‘Backs’ defense was almost non-existent - Ole Miss shot 50.9% from the field. Despite Arkansas’ physical team makeup, the Rebels did what they have done very well all year: rebound, outrebounding their opponents 36-29. The Rebels were ultimately too quick and athletic for Arkansas to keep up with on the road. As per my keys, Curtis was indeed able to pull more than his own weight inside against Arkansas’ big men, scoring 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds for his unbelievable 15th double-double of the season. Curtis is easily one of the most overlooked inside men in the conference. Huertas also shot well, hitting 3-of-6 shots from long range and dishing out 5 assists. For Arkansas, Beverly finally found his shot just as Weems lost his. Beverly shot 7-of-13 and 3-of-8 from three for 19 points while Weems (who has scored at least 20 points in 7 of the last 13 games) managed just 5 points on 2-of-11 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: This win certainly keeps the Rebels’ NCAA hopes alive, although the team will likely need to win at Georgia and at least a game in the SEC Tournament. The RPI (42nd) is respectable, but the their last 10 games (4-6) is less so.
Impact [Arkansas]: This dealt a huge blow to the Razorbacks, who suddenly fall from probably NCAA pick to the wrong side of the bubble. Luckily, Auburn at home is next, but Arkansas’ 5-9 Road/Nuetral record is certainly not favorable. One win the SEC Tournament could put them in, however.
Stat of the Game: Ole Miss shooting 20.4% better from three

Wednesday Odds

(13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [#139] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [#55]
Spread: South Carolina by 1
Pick: South Carolina - Before the loss of Patterson, I would have picked Kentucky. However, the Wildcats now seemingly have noone to keep Downey from the lane.
—Keys: Obviously, can Kentucky establish inside presence with just Stevenson, and keep Downey our of the lane? Will South Carolina regain their composure from behind the 3-point arc. With the NCAA on the line, will the Wildcats choke?

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [#143] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [#156]
Spread: Auburn by 2
Pick: Auburn - The Tigers have the firepower to put up some points, and the Bulldogs don’t have the defense to stop them.
—Keys: Will Humphrey or someone else be able to complement Gaines for Georgia, and how will the Tigers try and stop Gaines?

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [#163] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [#122]
Spread: LSU by 1
Pick: LSU - The Tigers have won three in a row over better competition, and Alabama has dropped 3 of their last 4.
—Keys: LSU’s defense is actually pretty solid, and the Alabama guards will need to be able to bring down whatever points they are able to. Look for the matchup of Johnson and Randolph’s defense against Hendrix’s offense.

(24-5, 9-5) #16 Vanderbilt [#10] vs. (20-8, 11-3) #25 Mississippi State [#38]
Spread: Vanderbilt by 3.5
Pick: Vanderbilt - The Commodores are undefeated at home, although this could be a mismatch for Vanderbilt. The game should be a competitive one, as the ‘Dores’ offense is paired up against the Dawgs’ defense.
—Keys: Will Varnado be able to silence Ogilvy inside? MSU will need to minimize turnovers if they want to have a chance, and Commodores will need to make shots against the nation’s second-ranked defense.

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [#60] vs. (26-3, 12-2) #4 Tennessee [#1]
Spread: Tennessee by 1.5
Pick: Tennessee - The Vols seem unphased by road play, and the Gators are still struggling. With the Gators’ youth, look for them to give up a big number of turnovers against Tennessee’s press defense.
—Turnovers will be key - Florida will need to keep them in check. With Florida’s lack of defense of any type, Tennessee’s efficient offense could make this a blowout.

Saturday and Sunday games…

Overall: 135-34 (79.9%)
Vs. Spread: 61-56 (52.1%)
Overall (SEC): 42-16 (72.4%)
Vs. Spread (SEC): 28-29 (49.1%)
East vs. West: East, 20-8

Saturday Games

(19-9, 8-6) Arkansas [78] vs. (24-5, 9-5) #18 Vanderbilt [73]: This was a very surprising game from a statistical point of view. To begin, the home team usually forces their own tempo, and this was clearly an uncomfortably up-tempo game for the Razorbacks. Secondly, Vanderbilt came into BWA as one of the conference’s best-shooting (if not the best) teams, and the ‘Backs outshot Vanderbilt by 15.0%. However, one would presume Arkansas’ big-man superiority would lead to a rebounding advantage, but it was the Commodores who won the rebounding advantage 29-24. Ultimately, Vanderbilt’s lack of defense proved the difference in the game. Weems continues to impress in SEC play, shooting 3-of-5 from three-point range for 20 points while Beverly suddenly caught fire and shot 5-of-7 from behind the arc and 6-of-10 overall to score 17. Ervin also had a nice game, handing out 7 assists and only turning the ball over once. Vanderbilt’s scoring was lop-sided, as Foster led the team with 22 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three and freshman Ogilvy upped his SEC Freshman of the Year candicacy by recording 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks. However, only one other Vandy player scored over 10 and only a few others managed to get on the board.
Impact [Arkansas]: The win over a ranked team provided a massive boost to the Razorbacks’ NCAA chances, but at least one more win will probably be needed to ensure inclusion.
Impact [Vanderbilt]: It’s all about seeding at this point, although the Commodores will likely finish 3rd in the Eastern Division and miss the SEC Tournament’s first-round bye.
Stat of the Game: Arkansas’ 58.3% shooting and 56.2% effort from three

(14-13, 4-10) Auburn [63] vs. (13-15, 5-9) South Carolina [69]: The Gamecocks surprised the Tigers on the road by holding the solid-shooting squad to just 63 points. While both teams rely heavily on the three-pointer, neither shot well from that distance and South Carolina had the advantage getting inside with Downey. Downey led all scorers with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting (only two of those attempts from three-point range) while Holmes shot 8-of-10 for 18 points and 7 rebounds. Tolbert led the Tigers with 20 points while Prowell recorded his second double-double of the season with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
Impact [Auburn]: The Tigers have long since been out of the postseason question, so this game had very little impact overall on the divisions’ bottom-dwellers.
Impact [South Carolina]: Odom has a history of getting hot in the SEC Tournament, and a road win could give Gamecock fans a small glint of hope for that to happen again.
Stat of the Game: Two of the SEC’s better three-point shooting teams combining for 8-of-39 (20.5%) shooting from three

(21-8, 8-6) Florida [59] vs. (20-8, 11-3) Mississippi State [68]: While this was a sub-ten-point game, the Bulldogs dominated the pace and outcome of this game from the very beginning. MSU remains the nation’s second-ranked defense, and it showed as the Gators usually-potent offense shot just 36.1% from the floor and 28.0% from three. MSU’s ball-handling was surprisingly good considering their unremarkable history of turning the ball over, and none of the Florida guards could find anything against State’s defense, missing several open layups. Hansbrough was the rarity for the Bulldogs to lead the team, scoring 20 points on 4-of-8 shooting from three while Rhodes put up 15 points and 8 rebounds. Varnado, the nation’s leading shot-blocker, swatted 7 shots and scored 11 points/rebounds apeice for his fifth double-double of the season. SEC Player of the Year candidate Jamont Gordon suffered a terrible outing, shooting just 1-of-8 for 4 points asnd 5 rebounds. Speights was the bright spot for Florida, as he seemingly had his way inside, scoring 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds for the sixth double-double of his season. Calathes shot decently for 18 points, but uncharacteristically turned the ball over 3 times.
Impact [Florida]: The Gators desperately needed this win to bolster their NCAA resume, as #1 Tennessee comes to town next and then Florida will have to travel to Kentucky. One of those games must be a win, and another win in the SEC Tournament may be needed to get on the good side of the bubble.
Impact [Mississippi State]: MSU now clinches sole possession of the Western Division, and is a game back from the overall title with two games remaining. This was a tremendous seed-booster for the NCAA-bound Bulldogs, and if State can take care of Vanderbilt on the road and LSU at home, a 5 seed or better could be the outcome, depending on the squad’s performance in the conference tournament.
Stat of the Game: Florida’s 7-of-25 shooting from three (28.0%)

(19-9, 5-9) Ole Miss [91] vs. (15-14, 4-10) Alabama [88]: This was a must-win for the Rebels, and the team barely pulled it out in the end to maintain their dim NCAA hopes. With both teams’ abscense of defense, the two teams shot very well from the field - the main reason the game came down to the wire. The Rebels’ main stars Warren and Curtis scored 25 and 24 points, respectively, while Warren also pitched in 8 assists and Curtis grabbed 9 rebounds. Huertas was also strong, scoring 18 points on 4-of-8 shooting from long range and claiming 9 boards. The Rebels did well keeping the ball out of the hands of Hendrix, as he was only allowed to attempt 8 shots for 10 points and 5 rebounds. Riley led the Tide with 20 points, but shot just 6-of-16 from the floor because of the squad’s lack of shooting depth. Jemison had his second big game in a row, scoring 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting.
Impact [Ole Miss]: The Rebels will nearly lose NCAA contention with a loss to Arkansas at home on Tuesday. Both that game at the next at Georgia are must wins, if Kennedy hopes to avoid the NIT for the second-straight season.
Impact [Alabama]: The Tide are simply hoping to avoid the title of being the Western Division’s worst team, as the postseason seems out of the question

Sunday Games

(26-3, 12-2) #1 Tennessee [63] vs. (16-11, 10-4) Kentucky [60]: The Wildcats actually led a decent amount of this game and Gillespie did an outstanding job at compensating for the loss of Patterson by slashing the ball to the basket with his guards Auburn-style. With that said, careless ball-handling and the Tennessee press handed the victory to the Vols, although the ‘Cats also outshot and outrebounded the top-ranked team. No surprise in the scoring for Tennessee, as only two players scored more than 10 points but eight players scored at least three. Tyler Smith led the charge with 15 on 6-of-14 shooting and five rebounds, and preseason All-American Chris Lofton scored 14 but turned the ball over 3 times. Bradley led the Wildcats with 17 points, but missed 2 out of 5 free throws (a lot for the SEC’s leading free-throw shooting). Perry Stevenson scored 13 points and claimed a career-high 14 rebounds for his second double-double of the season.
Impact [Tennessee]: The Vols are now only realistically battling with MSU for the SEC overall championship, and seem to be in a good spot - up by one game with only two remaining. If Tennessee can win their final two (at Florida, South Carolina at home) and reach the SEC Tournament final, a #1 seed should be a given.
Impact [Kentucky]: With the loss, Kentucky will likely need to win both of their remaining regular-season games (at South Carolina, Florida at home) and possibly even one more in the SEC Tournament to sufficiently impress the NCAA Selection Committee.
Stat of the Game: Kentucky (SEC’s best FT-shooting team) shooting 63.2% from the charity stripe

(12-16, 5-9) LSU [71] vs. (12-15, 3-11) Georgia [64]: This was not a pretty game, but it was exciting. Lots of big plays and energy for both squads, but also a lot of careless turnovers and poor decisions. Of note, Sundiata Gaines was thrown out of the game after receiving an inadvertent elbow in the lip from Georgia’s Bliss (I believe) on a floor-ball-scrambling and reacting with a clearly intended punch to the face. It was absolutely uncalled for, and I’m beginning to question Felton’s ability to bring in quality people to the program, despite his obviously good-natured personality. He’s constantly had problems on and off the court with his players, and it sure seems as if he simply doesn’t have what it takes to recruit good people. Back to the game - Marcus Thornton brought down a game-high 36 points (and even more surprisingly, it wasn’t a season high) on 12-of-21 shooting and a 5-of-7 effort from three along with 10 rebounds to notch his fourth double-double of the season and first since SEC play began. Randolph contributed 19 and Johnson tied a season-high 15 rebounds. Billy Humphrey rebounded from a stretch of 6 games in which he was held to under 10 points in five of them to score 26 points on 5-of-8 shooting from behind the arc for the Bulldogs.
Impact [LSU]: Very little. The postseason is out of the question, seeding in the SEC Tournament is about all that can improve at this point.
Impact [Georgia]: Very little. The postseason is also out of the question for the Bulldogs.
Stat of the Game: Georgia’s 18 turnovers

Pre-SEC Tournament Breakdown

Here’s a recap of where each team stands a little over two weeks away from the SEC Tournament. This includes likely seeds in the conference tournament and postseason play, remaining games, etc.

Alabama (14-13, 3-9)

The Tide have played good teams close this season: 4-point loss at Arkansas, 10-point loss to #5 Georgetown, 7-point loss to #1 Tennessee, 7-point loss at Mississippi State. However, the lack of talented depth - particularly interior - has limited the numbers under the win collumn. The team’s defense is miserable, the worst in the SEC in fact, and the offense holds its own. Richard Hendrix is obviously the MVP here, as he is possibly the best overall player in the SEC and by far one of the most overlooked college players in the nation. Gee is a distant second, as he’ll need to work on his decision-making to be a serious threat in his senior season next year. Hendrix is certainly a threat to go pro - but without the press coverage of a good season, he should come back and set up Alabama with a potential to win the conference outright next season, as some talented recruits filter into the program, Steele becomes available for his senior season more healthy than he’s been in a while, and the squad loses nearly noone.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Ole Miss (L)
@ LSU (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #5 seed
Round One: vs. Florida (W4)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Arkansas (18-8, 7-5)

The Razorbacks have played well, but look to fall just short of their predicted finish of first in the Western division, mainly due to missed opportunites for wins at Georgia (L, 69-82) and versus South Carolina (L, 66-70). The team excels in rebounding and defense, its game-plan very similar to Mississippi State. Ironically, both Weems and Beverly lead the team in scoring threats, although Beverly’s shooting has dropped off significantly from last year and his rebounding has drastically improved, despite the squad’s reliance on its big-men. None of the Arkansas players will likely make any NBA draft, although the team loses Ervin, Hill, Hunter, Thomas, Townes, and Weems next year as 2008-2009 looks to be a gigantic rebuilding year for the ‘Backs.

Remaining Schedule (Prediction)

@ Alabama (W)
vs. #18 Vanderbilt (L)
@ Ole Miss (W)
vs. Auburn (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

21-9, 10-6

SEC Tournament

West #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. LSU (W6) or Vanderbilt (E3)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 8 seed

Auburn (14-11, 4-

The Tigers have lots of potential to score, but only from their shooters - not their offensive plays. The team excels at racing and cutting to the basket, but are very vertically challenged with only one player on the roaster taller than their coach, Jeff Lebo. Free-throw shooting and field-goal percentage are the squad’s specialties, but nearly nothing else is - and rebounding is certainly the team’s biggest weakness. Depth has also been an enormous issue, as rarely do more than six Tigers score in a given game. Prowell leads the team in scoring, although Barber is arguably the team’s most important player with 13.8ppg, 6.9rpg and shooting 72.0% from the field. Quantez Robertson is one of the most under-appreciated point guards in the conference, as he sports 4.3 assists to 1.8 turnovers per game. None of the players have a shot at going pro, and the team loses Archie, Prowell, and Tolbert for next season…a significant scoring loss for a team that can’t afford to lose much depth.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Mississippi State (L)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Georgia (L)
@ Arkansas (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

15-14, 5-11

SEC Tournament

West #4 seed
Round One: vs. South Carolina (E5)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Florida (20-7, 7-5)

The very, very young Gators started off hot and looked to compete for the conference title, standing at 18-3 and 5-1 at one point. Since then, the freshmen have - like Ole Miss’ - hit the “brick wall”, as the squad has gone 2-4. The team is immensely talented (the nation’s top recruiting class for last year) but still very young and look to improve vastly next season. Defense has been shoddy at best, but the offense has been dynamic and nearly unstoppable. Calathes has been the catalyst for the team all season, as he leads the team with 15.3ppg, and also ranks among the top of the conference with 6.1 assists per game. Speights has proven to be a formidable inside prescense, putting up 7.8rpg and shooting 61.6% from the field. Losing noone for next year, this team looks to challenge for the overall SEC title next season and could very well end up as a Final Four threat before its all said and done.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Georgia (W)
vs. Mississippi St. (W)
vs. #1 Tennessee (L)
@ Kentucky (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

22-9, 9-7

SEC Tournament

East #4 seed
Round One: vs. Alabama (W5)
Round Two: vs. Mississippi State (W1)
Semifinal: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 9 seed

Georgia (12-13, 3-9)

The Bulldogs, much like Alabama, have competed in nearly every game and played good fundamentals, but simply haven’t pulled through in the clutch. Close games include: 8-point loss at Gonzaga, a win over Arkansas, 5-point loss to Kentucky, 8-point loss to #18 Vanderbilt, 3-point loss to #1 Tennessee, and a 6-point loss at Kentucky. The team rebounds and defends well, but can’t get anything going offensively. Sundiata Gaines has proven to be a dominating player, shooting incredibly well and even averaging 6.6rpg. Gaines has a great potential to make the conference’s first-team, and certainly the second-team. With that said, when your playmaking guard is leading your team in rebounding, someone’s missing some assignments. Gaines will probably test the NBA waters but certainly won’t make the cut, and the team loses Gaines and Bliss headed into next season. Losing Gaines will likely mean yet another season at the bottom of the SEC East.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Florida (L)
@ LSU (L)
@ Auburn (W)
vs. Ole Miss (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-16, 4-12

SEC Tournament

East #6 seed
Round One: vs. Ole Miss (W3)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

None

Kentucky (15-10, 9-3)

The two most interesting storylines heading into the postseason will be Kentucky and Ole Miss - direct opposites of each other. As the Rebels have a decent overall wins record and RPI, their SEC record is miserable. Conversely, the Wildcats have won just 15 games and have home losses to both Gardner-Webb (L, 68-84) and San Diego (L, 72-81) but have amassed an impressive 9-3 conference record with wins over #18 Vanderbilt, #1 Tennessee, and Arkansas. The team has taken advantage of a solid defensive prescense, decent rebounding, and the conference’s best free-throw shooting to edge into second place in the conference and within a game and a half of Tennessee for the lead. The interesting issue for Kentucky is that the NCAA selection committee will likely either have to leave out a 10+ win SEC team for the first time ever or hand out an at-large to a 18 or 19-win team. Crawford, Patterson, and Bradley each contribute more than 15 points for a Wildcat team that has struggled with talented depth. Patterson will battle Calathes and Ogilvy for SEC Freshman of the Year, averaging 16.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Bradley leads the league in free-throw shooting with an 85.6% mark from the charity stripe. The only likely NBA-bound player will be Patterson, although he would be advised not to leave this season. The Wildcats will take a major blow in the points column by losing both Bradley and Crawford next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)
@ South Carolina (W)
vs. Florida (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

18-11, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #2 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Georgia (E6) or Ole Miss (W3)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 10 seed

LSU (10-16, 3-9)

Surprisingly competitve following coach Brady’s firing, the Tigers have since upset Florida, handed a 20-point demolition to Ole Miss, played #1 Tennessee to 2 points, and played Kentucky to 4. However, the big picture is an ugly one for the Tigers, as they trail the entire conference in an enormous amount of statistical categories. Rebounding isn’t good, defense is mediocre, and offense is horrendous. About the only plus for LSU is ranking [a distant] second in the league in blocks per game. Marcus Thornton is the playmaker for the Tigers, as he averages 18.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Anthony Randolph is a quality big-man down low, although he hasn’t fared particularly well against the SEC’s other great big-men, with 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Both players would be legitimate NBA material if on another team, but the obscene lack of depth and the absence of a point-guard for LSU will limit that until the team steps back onto the national scene. As a positive, the team loses noone of importance heading into next season, and should have every opportunity to improve upon this year’s dismal record.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ South Carolina (L)
vs. Georgia (W)
vs. Alabama (L)
@ Mississippi State (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

11-19, 4-12

SEC Tournament

West #6 seed
Round One: vs. Vanderbilt (E3)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Mississippi State (18-8, 9-3)

With a two-game lead in the West with four games remaining, the Bulldogs have a strangle-hold on the division. Also just a game and a half back overall, the overall title is still a distant hope. None of this would have been predicted earlier in the season when MSU stood at 5-5 on the season with losses to both Miamis and Southern Illinois among others. No terrible losses, but games a Western-Division champion should win. State has improved drastically since that point, with the only noticeable losses being a 20-point blowout at Arkansas and a loss at rival Ole Miss. The team has peeled off this impressive stretch by ranking 2nd in the nation in both field-goal percentage defense and blocking, while sophomore defensive expert Jarvis Varnado leads the entire nation in blocks per game. Varnado has totalled more blocks personally than at least 7 SEC teams as a whole, and has long since surpassed MSU’s all-time single-season block record. Rebounding is also a specialty for the Bulldogs, although ball-handling and free-throw shooting could prove to be fatal shortcomings in the NCAA Tournament. State’s Gordon will challenge Vandy’s Shan Foster for SEC Player of the Year, as the all-america candidate is leading the team with 17.5ppg, 6.3rpg (as a point guard) and 4.7 assists per game - although 4.0 turnovers per game is far from desirable. Rhodes has stepped up his play lately to put himself into the argument for All-SEC First Team. Rhodes will likely throw his name into the draft as a senior, and if Gordon will follow Rhodes into the NBA will perhaps become the SEC’s biggest question this off-season. If not, Gordon could lead the Bulldogs back to the top of the West and to the NCAA’s.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Auburn (W)
@ Florida (L)
@ #18 Vanderbilt (L)
vs. LSU (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 11-5

SEC Tournament

West #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. Alabama (W5) or Florida (E4)
Semifinals: vs. Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), or Kentucky (E2)
Final: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 6 seed

Ole Miss (18-8, 4-

The Rebels have officially become “this year’s Clemson” after throwing the SEC on its heels by starting 13-0 but since have posted a 4-8 record, including being swept by Auburn and posting a 20-point loss at the SEC’s worst team, LSU. After appearing to be a certain NCAA lock, the team is now teetering on the wrong side of the bubble as the best possible outcome will be a sub-.500 SEC record. The team’s offensive efficiency has been outstanding for most of the season until recently, with freshman Chris Warren leading the charge. Defensively, the Rebels are non-existent although rebounding (behind Curtis) has become a trademark. Warren leads the Rebs both in scoring but in leadership - which has proved a major problem, as he is only a freshman. Curtis follows Hendrix as the conference’s best big-man, nearly averaging a double-double at 14.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. The team is very young and has tons of potential, but will lose most of its frontcourt with the exodus of Curtis (to graduation and then the NBA) and Williams, the teams’ often-overlooked but very talented forward (to graduation). Next year, the Rebels look to be equally as talented offensively but rebounding will suffer badly and defense should continue to struggle.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Alabama (W)
vs. Arkansas (L)
@ Georgia (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

20-8, 6-8

SEC Tournament

West #3 seed
Round One: vs. Georgia (E6)
Round Two: vs. Kentucky (E2)
Semifinals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), or Mississippi State (W1)
Finals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), Tennessee (E1), or Arkansas (W2)

Postseason

NIT: 1 seed

South Carolina (12-14, 4-

The Gamecocks are a stereotypical USC team - one talented point guard, and very little surrounding him. Downey can’t win every game on his own, and thus the squad has struggled. Amidst Odom’s announcement of his retirement at the end of the season, South Carolina has seemed just fall just short in nearly every game. South Carolina is actually one of the SEC’s best - if not the best - three-point shooting teams from a percentage aspect, but their reliance on the longball can get them into some trouble if they’re not falling. Downey is one of the conference’s top scorers, averaging 19.7 points per game, though he’s also putting up over 17 attempts per game. Downey is responsible, however, for 5.1 assists per outing. As a sophomore, Downey will likely leave his name out of the NBA waters, but he has the talent to get there at some point in his career. Losing literally noone from this year’s team, the Gamecocks are poised to be a competitive bunch next season, depending on the coaching change.v

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. LSU (W)
@ Auburn (L)
vs. Kentucky (L)
@ #1 Tennessee (L)

Final Regular-Season Record

13-17, 5-11

SEC Tournament

East #5 seed
Round One: vs. Auburn (W4)
Round Two: vs. Tennessee (E1)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

None

Tennessee (25-3, 11-2)

After a thrilling upset of the nation’s top-ranked team in Memphis, the Vols were ushered into the top spot with welcome arms the following Monday. However, the excitement of the program’s first #1 ranking ever was soon lost on Tuesday night, as the Vols dropped a 3-point road decision to 18th-ranked Vanderbilt. Tennessee is still a menacing team sure to stretch their season long into the NCAA Tournament and continue to vie for a top seed barring no more losses until the conference tournament’s final game. Rebounding has been a pleasant surprise for head coach Bruce Pearl, mainly due to his genious coaching skills and the team knowing their placements on shot-selection. The team makes more three-pointers than any other team in the conference, but barely shoots an above-average percentage from that range. Balanced scoring has highlighted the team’s dynamic, as pre-season All-American Chris Lofton’s percentages has suffered this year. He still leads the team in scoring, but isn’t shooting even 40% from the field and is hoisting up almost 2 more shots per game than any other teammate. JuJuan Smith has evolved into a Jamont-Gordon-like dynamic player who’s able to do almost anything with the basketball, and Tyler Smith has lived up to the pre-season hype as one of the nation’s best incoming transfers. The immense wealth of talent that Pearl has so quickly stock-piled is unrivaled in the conference, and any number of players could prove to have NBA skills, including Lofton, Tyler/JuJuan Smith, and others. Because of this, it’s very difficult to pick out who may actually jump, although I suspect both Lofton and JuJuan Smith will put their names in the hat due to their lack of remaining eligibility. Those two are the only players lost for Tennessee (although they are very important pieces to the puzzle), so Tennessee could once again be in the running for a divisional or conference title next season.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

vs. Kentucky (W)
@ Florida (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

28-3, 14-2

SEC Tournament

East #1 seed
Round One: Bye
Round Two: vs. South Carolina (E5) or Auburn (W4)
Semifinals: vs. LSU (W6), Vanderbilt (E3), or Arkansas (W2)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 1 seed

Vanderbilt (24-4, 9-4)

The Commodores started off at a red-hot clip, winning 16-straight games before losing 4 of their next 5. Appearing to be mimmicking Ole Miss’ epic implosion, the Commodores bounced back to a very good SEC record and have long since sealed their NCAA fates. The team (seemingly among many others in the Eastern Division) relies heavily on three-point shooting while rebounding isn’t a specialty, and has been anchored by SEC Player of the Year candidate Shan Foster and outstanding SEC Fresham of the Year candidate A.J. Ogilvy. Foster is near the top of the conference in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per contest on an absolutely excellent 51.6% shooting despite putting up over 13 attempts per game. Foster also is shooting over 45% from behind the arc and 5 rebounds per game. Ogilvy has proved formidable on the offensive end and less so on the defensive end, averaging 16.6ppg and 6.8rpg. Both players have NBA potential, although Foster is an almost definite as this is his last year. Ogilvy is a big question-mark, as he’s been on scouts’ radars even since his high-school days in Australia. If the team loses both, next year could be a semi-rebuilding year, although the NCAA’s would still be well within reach.

Remaining Games (Prediction)

at Arkansas (W)
vs. Mississippi State (W)
@ Alabama (W)

Final Regular-Season Record

27-4, 12-4

SEC Tournament

East #3 seed
Round One: vs. LSU (W6)
Round Two: vs. Arkansas (W2)
Semifinals: vs. South Carolina (E5), Auburn (W4), or Tennessee (E1)
Finals: vs. Alabama (W5), Florida (E4), Georgia (E6), Ole Miss (W3), Mississippi State (W1), or Kentucky (E2)

Postseason

NCAA Tournament: 3 seed