Saturday featured two SEC bubble squads improving their chances approaching postseason play, with one laying a big egg. Let’s investigate together, shall we?

#2 Kentucky (65) @ #19 Tennessee (74)
RPI: Kentucky: 4th, Tennessee: 14th
Kenpom: Kentucky: 10th, Tennessee: 29th
Sagarin: Kentucky: 4th, Tennessee: 20th

My prediction: Tennessee wins, 72-64

I called this one extremely closely. The Vols gave the Wildcats a relative butt-whooping to successfully take down both the top-ranked and second-ranked teams this season. Pearl gets his teams up for the big games, and this was no exception.

Despite ranking as the league’s top offense, Calipari’s squad was held to just 35.0 percent from the floor and 2-of-22 from deep for 9.1 percent. Kentucky isn’t perfect, and Tennessee proved it.

J.P. Prince had a career game, going for 20 points on 6-of-10 shooting. Sharpshooter Hopson fell short of his billing in the limelight, though, hitting just one of his six trey attempts.

DeMarcus Cousins was himself, scoring 15 and grabbing 14 rebounds along with his typically unclassy and thuggish attitude on and off the court. Wall scored 19 and handed out six assists but turned the ball over five times as well.

Though Tennessee’s record isn’t necessarily overly impressive, its RPI of 14th is. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Vols in the three-seed range come Selection Sunday, and a two isn’t out of the question if Pearl can win out and claim the SEC Tournament title. Kentucky is still holding onto a top NCAA seed, but can’t afford to lose too many more times before the big day.

#16 Vanderbilt (89) @ Arkansas (72)
RPI: Vanderbilt: 15th, Arkansas: 143rd
Kenpom: Vanderbilt: 25th, Arkansas: 100th
Sagarin: Vanderbilt: 19th, Arkansas: 117th

My prediction: Vanderbilt wins, 84-77

I also caught this result well, although the Commodores were a bit more impressive than I expected. With the Kentucky loss, Vandy is now fully in the overall SEC title race and with the Mississippi State win, Arkansas lost its chance at claiming the SEC West title outright.

Unlike Kentucky’s offense, Vandy’s was untouched on the road. The ‘Dores hit 53.3 percent of their shots in Fayetteville and 20-of-23 free throws for 87.0 percent. This kind of intensity and focus is exactly what Stallings’ squad needs for a big NCAA Tournament run.

Immensely-talented Arkansas freshman Marshawn Powell scored 27 points on 12-of-21 shooting and claimed 9 rebounds to lead all scorers. Five ‘Dores scored in double digits, balance the team will need in March.

Arkansas is toast after this loss. Its remaining two games are no easier (@ #19 Tennessee, Ole Miss at home) and it will need to take both of those games to take a share of the SEC West. Tough pill to swallow for a team that held a one-game lead in the West just a couple of weeks ago.

Vanderbilt is set up nicely for a solid three or four seed in the NCAA Tournament and is a solid darkhorse for a Final Four run.

Ole Miss (76) @ Alabama (73)
RPI: Ole Miss: 53rd, Alabama: 111th
Kenpom: Ole Miss: 50th, Alabama: 69th
Sagarin: Ole Miss: 46th, Alabama: 85th

My prediction: Ole Miss wins, 70-65

Again with an accurate prediction. It was a hard-fought win for Ole Miss, who trailed for most of the game. Ole Miss moved into a tie for second place in the SEC West with the Arkansas loss, and now has a chance to claim a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament. If State loses its final two (unlikely),  then the Rebels would claim a share of the division title.

Ole Miss’ offense joined 16th-ranked Vanderbilt and Mississippi State as road teams whose offenses flourished Saturday. The Rebels drained 12-of-25 shots for 48.0 percent from outside, actually better than the team’s 45.3 percent mark from the field.

Five Rebels scored in double digits, led by star point guard Chris Warren’s seven assists and 12 points. Terrico White, who’s struggled this season, had a solid night with 15 points and six rebounds, but five turnovers.

Mikhail Torrance has been stepping up big for the Tide lately. He scored 19 points and dished out six assists Saturday. Not enough for ’Bama, though.

Ole Miss stays alive on the NCAA bubble, but barely so. The team will need to win its final two, hosting LSU and traveling to Arkansas, to have a hope on Selection Sunday.

Florida (76) @ Georgia (78)
RPI: Florida: 46th, Georgia: 88th
Kenpom: Florida: 46th, Georgia: 79th
Sagarin: Florida: 39th, Georgia: 82nd

My prediction: Florida wins, 64-60

This is the one I got wrong. Florida has been inconsistent and the Bulldogs strong, but I wasn’t brave enough to call the upset. Though Fox’s squad has shown an incredible improvement from a year ago, Georgia’s record of 13-14 is very poor and Florida’s loss is going to hurt. The Gators have lost three of their last six, and are suddenly doubtful approaching Selection Sunday. The squad’s last two games are 16th-ranked Vanderbilt at home and a trip to second-ranked Kentucky, and if both equate to losses, Donovan might be staring at another NIT bid.

The exact opposite of what I predicted took place, with both teams catching fire offensively. Florida shot 11-of-23 for 47.8 percent from long-range. Sounds hard to beat until you look at Georgia’s 53.8 percent mark from that distance and 57.4 percent mark from the floor. UGA also outrebounded the Gators by three and had 21 assists.

Florida has tons of roleplayers, but they don’t seem to play together well. This time it was Parsons leading the squad, scoring 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting. Boynton also put up 22. Georgia’s heavily-underrated big-man Trey Thompkins led the squad with 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists.

If Florida loses its next two, which is likely, the Gators will need a win or two in the league tournament to be in the selection committee’s good graces.

Mississippi State (76) @ South Carolina (63)
RPI: Mississippi State: 57th, South Carolina: 82nd
Kenpom: Mississippi State: 41st, South Carolina: 87th
Sagarin: Mississippi State: 47th, South Carolina: 77th

My prediction: Mississippi State wins, 73-71

This joined Tennessee’s win as Saturday’s surprise blowouts. The 13-point winning margin was State’s second-biggest of the league season and guaranteed MSU at least a share of yet another SEC West title as well as the West’s top seed in the SEC Tournament and the corresponding first-round bye. The Bulldogs effectively traded places with Florida, pushing ahead to the right side of the bubble after having won five of their last six – including the shoulda-won game against Kentucky. One more win for State, and the West will belong to the team exclusively.

For the fifth time this season, five Bulldog players scored in double digits. Balance has been the strength of this squad, but shooting consistency has not been. Columbia was kind to MSU though, as Stansbury’s team hit 10 of its 21 three-point attempts and shot an even .500 from the floor.

Interestingly enough, five Gamecock players scored in double-digits as well. Devan Downey was held to just 12 points, his lowest point total in SEC play, on 0-of-7 shooting from deep. State’s all-star Jarvis Varnado scored 19 points and grabbed 12 rebounds to lead all players in both categories.

One more win should get the Bulldogs in, and three or four more – obviously including the league tournament – could get the team into an eight or nine seed, where a short NCAA run wouldn’t be impossible.

LSU (59) @ Auburn (74)
RPI: LSU: 221st, Auburn: 139th
Kenpom: 186th, Auburn: 98th
Sagarin: 188th, Auburn: 116th

My prediction: Mississippi State wins, 85-68

Another semi-correct prediction. Though I wasn’t close on the scoring, the margin was pretty similar. This game was a non-issue for both teams, though. Neither team will likely finish over .500 on the year.

Auburn got heavily outrebounded (32-19) but took care of the ball and shot well. Because of the turnover margin (16-8), Lebo’s squad attempted just two shots less.

Both teams had big-time scorers, as Waller scored 26 on 6-of-10 from three and LSU’s Spencer notched 23.

From here on out, these teams are only playing the role of spoilers.

The next week is crucial for all the SEC teams. Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are all trying to stay in the NCAA’s top four seeds. Mississippi State, Florida and Ole Miss are all fighting the Tournament bubble battle. Oddly, it appears that there’s a solid shot of the league placing six teams into the Big Dance and none in the NIT. No squads are fighting for an NIT spot, but whichever league bubble teams don’t make the cut will be there.

Stay tuned to see how it plays out. Follow me on Twitter @HoopsKnowItAll and become a fan of the blog on Facebook HERE.

With this standing as the second-to-last weekend for the conference’s regular season, the results from this the next two days could very well decide the postseason fate of several of the conference’s teams.

To begin, an interesting statistic for those of you dorks like myself. Of the SEC teams that have played opposing teams twice (those in their own division), the average home-court advantage is 14.1 points. This is a good deal more than the widely-accepted figure of about seven or eight points, and shows just how difficult it is to win on the road in the SEC.

I calculated this by taking the average difference in scores between each of the two teams. For example, if Team A lost at Team B by 5 points, and Team B lost at Team A by 10 points, each team fared 15 points better at home. Thus, each team’s home-court advantage for that matchup was 15 points.

After the season, I’ll be recapping all the BCS leagues and comparing their home-court advantages.

For now, keep the 14.1 point figure in your head, though the following is the average home-court advantage for each league team, highest to lowest.

1. Tennessee – 24.33 points
2. LSU – 21.00 points
3. Arkansas – 20.50 points
4. Kentucky – 19.00 points
5. South Carolina – 18.75 points
6. Georgia – 15.67 points
t7. Florida – 11.00 points
t7. Vanderbilt – 11.00 points
9. Alabama – 10.67 points
10. Mississippi State – 9.5 points
11. Auburn – 6.00 points
12. Ole Miss – 1.5 points

Obviously, these are skewed with such limited data sets. The 46-point LSU/Arkansas turnaround severely warped the advantages for both teams, and freak games do happen. These are clearly not meant to be taken literally, but more as a general idea. The league number of 14.1 points, though, does warrant some attention.

With that said, here’s a complete breakdown of the weekend’s games, complete with analyses and predictions from myself and living stat guru legend Ken Pomeroy of www.kenpom.com.

#2 Kentucky @ #19 Tennessee, 11:00 a.m. CT

Is it a big deal? This game is not likely to, but could, have SEC regular-season title implications. If the Wildcats drop two of their next three – which would be nothing short of jaw-dropping considering they’ve only lost one game thus far – and 16th-ranked Vanderbilt wins out, the Wildcats would be forced to share the title. If a complete end-of-the-season faceplant occurs and UK drops its last three, Vandy would own it outright.

Why should I watch it? With that all-but-useless conversation out of the way, the bigger story with this game is the entertainment factor. Tennessee has struggled, despite its ranking, but is capable of the win. Afterall, Pearl is a madman in the underdog role. Just ask the Jayhawks from Kansas about that one.

What do the stats say? In the two teams’ previous game in Lexington, Kentucky won 73-62. Per the SEC average, this would give Tennessee a three-point advantage. Take the average of the two teams’ averages, and the Vols would win by a more comfortable 10 or 11 point margin. Kenpom disagrees with both and predicts a 70-69 Kentucky win.

What’s it going to be like? Both teams play tight defense, and aren’t used to close games. In general, a slower defense-oriented pace favors the home team, where the shots seem to fall more easily. Look for heavy guard-play from Tennessee, and UK to dominate the paint. The Vols will be avoiding the post the way Tyler Smith should’ve avoided that gun.

So, what’s your prediction? Tennessee wins, 72-64.

#16 Vanderbilt @ Arkansas, 12:30 p.m. CT

Is it a big deal? If Vanderbilt is hoping to cling on to whatever chance of an SEC title it has, it must win this game. The ‘Dores are also fighting for a two seed, though a three seed is more likely. Arkansas might have more to play for, as Pelphrey’s squad is surprisingly just a game back in the SEC West. With a trip to 19th-ranked Tennessee and a home matchup against Ole Miss on the horizon, a win here would be a big help.

Why should I watch it? There’s a good chance of an upset. Arkansas has been playing quite well since the return of Fortson, and Vanderbilt is coming off of a close, emotional overtime game against Georgia. If you’re in the region, there won’t be many more passionate gameday environments than there will be in Bud Walton.

What do the stats say? Ken Pomeroy predicts an 82-77 Vanderbilt victory.

What’s it going to be like? This should be a fast-paced and guard-oriented game. Lots of threes, lots of points. Arkansas doesn’t play defense, well, at all so the ‘Backs will need to keep up the intensity on offense to keep it from being a blowout.

So, what’s your prediction? Vanderbilt wins, 84-77.

Ole Miss @ Alabama, 1:00 p.m. CT

Is it a big deal? Ole Miss needs this win if it hopes to keep its head above water in the SEC West. Though it will need some help from Arkansas and Mississippi State, the Rebels aren’t out of the race just yet. More importantly, Kennedy’s squad has to keep start winning, and quickly, to work its way into the Big Dance. If Ole Miss brings home a loss from Tuscaloosa, the NIT will be awaiting it in Oxford.

Why should I watch it? If you’re an SEC fan, you may want Ole Miss to pull off the late-season push for the NCAA’s to squeeze in the league’s sixth team. Otherwise, there isn’t a big reason.

What do the stats say? In Oxford, Ole Miss took the “W” by a 74-67 margin. With the league average, Alabama would win by a similar 7-point edge. If only the team’s averages are taken into account, this would be a very close game with neither team having a significant advantage. Kenpom trends toward the team average and predicts 70-69 Alabama win.

What’s it going to be like? Both teams have guards who are talented defensively and are both are thin in the paint. This has the makeup of a turnover-heavy, low-scoring game. In fact, it shouldn’t be a very entertaining one to witness.

So, what’s your prediction? Ole Miss wins, 70-65.

Florida @ Georgia, 3:00 p.m. CT

Is it a big deal? It will be a big deal for Florida, which is looking to stay on the right side of the bubble. It would be the Gators’ first NCAA appearance since winning the national title, and the squad is well on its way if it doesn’t stumble. This could be the stumble. Georgia is fresh off of taking 16th-ranked Vanderbilt to overtime in Nashville and has pulled off several upsets this year.

Why should I watch it? It should definitely be a good game. The Bulldogs are capable in any game they compete in, but Florida has won three-straight with a most-recent win over 19th-ranked Tennessee. Donovan’s team is 6-3 in road games as well, so it could be anything from a close game to a Gator blowout. The Boynton/Thompkins matchup should be very entertaining.

What do the stats say? Considering Florida’s 16-point victory in Gainesville in late January, the SEC average says Florida would pull off a tight two-point win. The teams’ averages would add about two or three points to that. Kenpom agrees with the league average, and predicts a 69-68 Florida win.

What’s it going to be like? It should be a very, very low-scoring game. Florida has struggled to score this season, as have the Bulldogs. Both teams defend moderately well and have talented big-men. Look for the battle of the paint to prove decisive.

So, what’s your prediction? Florida wins, 64-60.

Mississippi State @ South Carolina, 5:00 p.m. CT

Is it a big deal? Mississippi State is one of the nation’s closest teams to the NCAA bubble edge. Though a loss in Columbia wouldn’t be a deal-breaker, it’d be close without a win in the league tournament. South Carolina is still desperately clinging to the hope of an NIT bid, and a win over the Bulldogs would be a big step in that direction. MSU also needs the win to solidy its lead over the rest of the West.

Why should I watch it? This game will feature two of the league’s top three post defenses, and the block party alone should be a major entertainment factor. State’s Jarvis Varnado became the nation’s all-time blocks leader this week and USC’s Sam Muldrow ranks second in the league at 3.15 swats per game. Varnado averages 5.07, second-best in the nation. Also intruiging is the point-guard matchup, as both Downey and Bost are capable of more than 30 points.

What do the stats say? Kenpom predicts a 69-68 Mississippi State victory.

What’s it going to be like? In all of the league’s games this season, this game should rank high among them in three-pointers attempted. Both teams have guard-oriented teams, though MSU attempts more treys. USC’s offense runs through Downey, though his slashing to the basket will need to be creative to avoid Varnado’s hands.

So, what’s your prediction? Mississippi State wins, 73-71.

LSU @ Auburn, 6:00 p.m. CT

Is it a big deal? Honestly, not at all. This is the dud of the day, as neither team has any shot whatsoever at the postseason barring an increasingly possible miracle SEC Tournament run.

Why should I watch it? If you’re an LSU or Auburn fan, this game is watchable. Otherwise, it’s tough to find a reason beyond witnessing the awe-inspiring play of LSU senior Tasmin Mitchell.

What do the stats say? In Baton Rouge, Auburn pulled off an 84-80 victory. This should equate to an Auburn blowout, regardless of the average that one looks at. Kenpom predicts a 73-63 Auburn win.

What’s it going to be like? This is a good question, actually. Auburn scores well and is non-existent on defense. LSU struggles on offense but plays solid defense. With the home advantage to Auburn, this could be a massive blowout.

So, what’s your prediction? Auburn wins, 85-68.

Disagree? Agree? Let me know by commenting! Follow me @HoopsKnowItAll.

Two things are going to up the conference’s chances to get five or six teams into the NCAA Tournament.

First, the A-10 and Big East are eliminating their own left and right. The leagues probably have too much parody, and the little guys are toppling bubble teams seemingly every day. Before several upsets on Saturday, the A-10 had dropped from seven probables to three probables and the Big East is down to about five probables.

Secondly, the Pac-10 is beyond awful. Did you think the SEC was down last year? The SEC still finished sixth nationally last season, last among the BCS leagues. Thus far this year, the Pac-10 is ranked ninth behind the Mountain West, A-10 and Missouri Valley. In a down year, the SEC managed two at-large bids and a third automatic bid. The Pac-10 will join the many one-bid leagues this year without an upset run through the conference tournament by one of the many teams refusing to take the regular-season title.

Both of these factors mean more spots will be available for bubble teams. Coincidentally, the SEC has several of those very things.

Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are in. Florida, Mississippi State and Ole Miss are all still sweating it out on the bubble. With the extra spots available, it’s not a stretch to think all three bubble teams will hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

League Recap

Barring a complete collapse, Kentucky has won the SEC regular-season title, including the SEC Eastern division.

The West is more interesting. An Arkansas team that entered SEC play at 7-8 is tied with a Mississippi State team who was supposed to contend for the SEC title at 7-5 in conference play. Ole Miss, who was supposed to challenge MSU for the Western division, stands third at 5-7 and is going to need a miracle to vie for the division. Both the ‘Backs and ‘Dawgs have a fairly tough schedule remaining and the Rebels’ is very soft, so it should be an entertaining next couple of weeks for the West.

Here’s a recap of each team thus far, and what’s ahead.

Alabama (14-12, 4-8)
RPI: 103rd (-8), Kenpom: 70th (+4), Sagarin: 81st (+1)
Record in last ten games: 3-7
Record in last five games: 1-4

The Crimson Tide are in a major slump, and are going to struggle to make .500 this year. Grant has done a good job with this team, but there’s just not enough depth to compete regularly yet.
Arkansas (14-13, 7-5)
RPI: 126th (-12), Kenpom: 92nd (0), Sagarin: 105th (+2)
Record in last ten games: 6-4
Record in last five games: 3-2

The Razorbacks are probably the league’s biggest surprise, and have a real shot at upsetting Mississippi State for the Western division title. A trip to LSU should be a win, but Vanderbilt and Ole Miss at home as well as a game in Knoxville will all be tough outs. Unfortunately, a good SEC record with an RPI in the 120′s won’t be enough to get the ‘Backs into the postseason, regardless of any title.
Auburn (12-14, 4-8)
RPI: 144th (+6), Kenpom: 102nd (+4), Sagarin: 120th (+4)
Record in last ten games: 4-6
Record in last five games: 2-3

Auburn has been competitive despite their record and RPI, but this season will be effectively scrapped. So will Lebo.

Florida (19-8, 8-4)
RPI: 53rd (+8), Kenpom: 50th (+4), Sagarin: 43rd (+3)
Record in last ten games: 7-3
Record in last five games: 3-2

The Gators are fighting for an NCAA bid, and as of today it’s safely theirs. However, the final two weeks are going to be brutal for Donovan’s squad. Tennessee and Vanderbilt both visit Gainesville, each could easily be losses, and the team travels to Georgia and Kentucky. Without a win in at least one of those home games, Florida may very well play itself out of the NCAA’s.
Georgia (12-13, 4-8)
RPI: 88th (+3), Kenpom: 86th (+2), Sagarin: 89th (+4)
Record in last ten games: 4-6
Record in last five games: 3-2

Georgia has had a successful season by most every account. An RPI of 88th, compared to last year’s RPI of 192nd, is a phenomenal improvement. Several major upsets, even more close calls, and all of this for a team who is severely lacking on depth and talent. Fox has proven he’s the real deal and is set to do big things in Athens in years to come.
#2 Kentucky (26-1, 11-1)
RPI: 2nd (+3), Kenpom: 7th (+3), Sagarin: 4th (+1)
Record in last ten games: 9-1
Record in last five games: 5-0

The Wildcats have proven me right while simultaneously proving me wrong all season. They don’t play like an elite team, are seemingly very beatable and have many weaknesses. However, they aren’t losing like I predicted. No matter the opponent, Cousins, Wall and company simply refuse to lose (at least until matched up with an opponent like Downey who wanted to win more). Can Calipari really win his first national title? I don’t think so, not even for a second. I have, however, been wrong on this team all year, so nothing would surprise me.
LSU (9-17, 0-12)
RPI: 217th (-4), Kenpom: 196th (+3), Sagarin: 196th (+2)
Record in last ten games: 0-10
Record in last five games: 0-5

The Tigers are in the middle of an absolutely epic losing streak. Even for a bad team, a 12-game stretch without a win is incredibly rare, especially for a BCS program. In fact, the Tigers have won only one game in their last 16 contests. With last year’s impressive outing and this year’s immense failure, just how good of a coach is Trent Johnson?
Mississippi State (19-8, 7-5)
RPI: 63rd (-6), Kenpom: 44th (-5), Sagarin: 53rd (-4)
Record in last ten games: 5-5
Record in last five games: 3-2

The Bulldogs had some stripes cost them a massive win against second-ranked Kentucky on Tuesday, but are showing signs of life when it counts…a Stansbury trademark. MSU’s final four games are more favorable than those of Arkansas and the Bulldogs stand as the favorite to take the West. Trips to South Carolina and Auburn are both winnable, and home games against Alabama and Tennessee should yield at least one win.
Ole Miss (17-9, 5-7)
RPI: 60th (-15), Kenpom: 48th (-6), Sagarin: 49th (-12)
Record in last ten games: 4-6
Record in last five games: 1-4

The Rebels are coming up short against the SEC’s top-tier squads and are beginning to play themselves out of the Big Dance. Ole Miss effectively needs to win its four remaining games to ensure themselves a good shot, and that won’t be easy. Home tilts against LSU and Auburn should be W’s, but road trips to Alabama and Arkansas will be tougher.
South Carolina (14-12, 5-7)
RPI: 81st (-9), Kenpom: 82nd (-4), Sagarin: 73rd (-1)
Record in last ten games: 3-7
Record in last five games: 1-4

Has there been a more disappointing SEC team in the past two years than South Carolina? Horn has been well short of impressive in his first two years at the helm, as USC was expected to compete with Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida for the East’s second-place spot preseason. Instead, it will be missing the postseason.
#20 Tennessee (20-6, 8-4)
RPI: 18th (+3), Kenpom: 27th (+4), Sagarin: 16th (+4)
Record in last ten games: 6-4
Record in last five games: 3-2

The Vols are peaking at the right time, but have some tough games down the stretch. Trips to Florida and Mississippi State should yield at least one loss while Kentucky and Arkansas at home are both winnable. Tennessee should receive a solid NCAA seed.
#17 Vanderbilt (19-6, 9-3)
RPI: 12th (+4), Kenpom: 26th (+4), Sagarin: 18th (+3)
Record in last ten games: 7-3
Record in last five games: 3-2

Look no further for a Final Four darkhorse. The ‘Dores have been quietly putting together one of the better campaigns in the country, and could be pretty potent in the Big Dance. If Kentucky manages to stumble a couple of times, a tie for the SEC regular-season title isn’t out of the question.

Here are some predictions. Keep in mind, though, that my predictions for awards aren’t necessarily my PICKS for those awards, as I tend to very with the media a good bit. I’ll be posting my picks after the regular-season ends. They should stir a lot of contraversy, so be sure to stay tuned.

SEC Regular-season winner:   Kentucky (14-2)
SEC Eastern division winner:   Kentucky (14-2)
SEC Western division winner:   Mississippi State (10-6)

SEC Tournament winner:   Vanderbilt

SEC Player of the year:   John Wall, UK
SEC Freshman of the year:   John Wall, UK
SEC Coach of the year:   John Calipari, UK

SEC First-Team
John Wall, UK
DeMarcus Cousins, UK
Jarvis Varnado, MSU
Devan Downey, USC
Tasmin Mitchell, LSU

SEC Second-Team
Trey Thompkins, UGA
Chris Warren, OM
Rotnei Clarke, ARK
Patrick Patterson, UK
Marshawn Powell, ARK

NCAA Tournament Bids
Kentucky (1)
Vanderbilt (3)
Tennessee (4)
Mississippi State (9)
Florida (9)
Ole Miss (11)

NIT Bids
None

Don’t forget to follow me personally @HoopsKnowItAll to get thoughts and comments throughout the week!

I am posting more reliably and consistently HERE.

I am trying to post my new articles over here, but there is a big lag.

Another option is to get constant live updates on Twitter @HoopsKnowItAll.

While Arkansas exploded in its first game, it got brought down to reality by 20th-ranked Louisville. Several other SEC teams have lost already as well.

 One of those teams is 18th-ranked Mississippi State.

 The biggest surprise for the conference, however, was a positive one. Rotnei Clarke blew past SEC and Arkansas records on his way to a 13-of-17 performance from downtown to post 51 points against Alcorn State.

 Here are Week One’s awards.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Rotnei Clarke (33.5 ppg, 2.0 stl, 66.7% 3PT)

 COACH OF THE WEEK: Trent Johnson (3-0 with win over Western Kentucky)

 FRESHMAN OF THE WEEK: Marshawn Powell (16.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.5 blk)

A breakdown of each team’s performance thus far follows.

Alabama (1-1)

We already received news that Stefan Welsh was suspended indefinitely.

Today comes news that several others are being suspended. As if Arkansas could afford any other losses.

The biggest surprise is that Courtney Fortson, who will play a major role when he finally gets back to the hardwood, has been suspended indefinitely as well. Fortson averaged 14.8 points, 5.5 rebounds last year and is the team’s only point guard with floor experience.

Marcus Britt, who is set for a breakout season, will miss six games while Glenn Bryant will miss two. Walk-on Nick Mason is gone for the entire semester at least.

This leaves, to my count, three players with returning experience—and just eight overall—available on Friday when Arkansas opens against Alcorn State.

If this doesn’t get reigned in, and quickly, Pelphrey might find himself without a job sooner than he thought.

Only a few exhibition games remain for the Southeastern Conference, as most teams have played at least one.

Here’s a recap of those played since Nov. 2, my last update of them. The rest will come tonight and tomorrow, while the regular season begins at the end of this week.

I’m adding a new feature into all of my stories…a grade for each team’s performance. It will be entirely subjective (obviously) and will focus on how well the team should have done compared to how it actually performed. It’s A-F and will use pluses and minuses.

The game reviews will be in chronological order.

Let’s discuss the games in chronological order.

No. 10 Tennessee (117) vs. North Alabama (79)
Knoxville, Tenn., Oct. 30, 2009

The Volunteers dominated North Alabama in every way and lent evidence to my prediction of their taking the SEC Eastern Division title. The squad shot 65.7 percent from the field, including a barn-burning 58.8 percent from behind the arc.

While six UT players registered double-digit efforts, sophomore Scotty Hopson finally showed a flash of his potential by nailing 8-of-10 of his shots from the floor, including 4-of-5 from three. The Vols put up a 1.23 assist-to-turnover margin, forced 28 turnovers, and won the rebounding battle 46-30.

In his debut as a Volunteer, freshman power forward Kenny Hall impressed the crowd by shooting a perfect 5-of-5 from the floor, hitting all four of his free throws, and grabbing seven rebounds. He fouled out, however, which looks to be an issue he needs to work on.

While almost all of the game was positive for the Orange fans, one thing was not: defense. Allowing 79 points to UNA isn’t a positive sign, and Tennessee won’t be averaging 117 points a game. The Vols need to work on defense if they truly want to contend for a National Title.

Player of the Game: Scotty Hopson (20 pts, 80.0% FG, 80.0% 3PT, 4 ast, 2 stl)
Stat of the Game: +16 Tennessee rebounding margin

No. 18 Mississippi State (82) vs. Oklahoma City (54)
Starkville, Miss., Oct. 31, 2009

The Bulldogs of the SEC West struggled with consistency and offensive smoothness in this game’s first half, despite never trailing. MSU led just 38-33 at the half. State figured out OCU’s zone defense in the second, however, and dominated the rest of the game.

Four MSU players registered double-digit scoring, led by outstanding junior shooter Ravern Johnson’s 23 points on 8-of-15 shooting, including a 6-of-10 effort from behind the arc. All-everything senior Jarvis Varnado led the game with 11 rebounds on top of eight points and four blocks. The Bulldogs finished the game well ahead in every major category.

Renardo Sidney is still awaiting an NCAA decision on his eligibility, and big man John Riek was benched in hopes his exhibition game would count toward his nine-game suspension. Wendell Lewis continued his impressive preseason performance, grabbing eight rebounds in just 13 minutes. Shaunessy Smith had four assists without a turnover, but not much else.

As a team, this was a very nice performance against a solid lower-division team. If Johnson continues his streak of hot shooting as he did during last season’s non-conference schedule, this will be a very dangerous team.

Player of the Game: Ravern Johnson (23 pts, 5 rbs, 53.3% FG, 60.0% 3PT)
Stat of the Game: MSU +15 rebound margin after trailing at halftime

Arkansas (77) vs. Dillard (59)
Fayetteville, Ark., Nov. 2, 2009

The Razorbacks could have very well lost this game if it weren’t for Michael Washington’s tremendous 25-point, 10-rebound double-double effort. Even with him, the ‘Backs shot just 39.2 percent from the field and just 21.9 percent from three.

Ranked as the best shooting guard in the nation this offseason, Rotnei Clarke managed just 5-of-15 shooting and 4-of-13 from behind the arc. Courtney Fortson handed out nine assists to four turnovers.

Hyped freshman Marshawn Powell didn’t play, though power forward Glenn Bryant stood out amongst the remainder of the newcomers. He put up the ‘Backs’ second double-double with 17 points on 6-of-12 shooting and 10 rebounds.

Julysses Nobles and Jemal Farmer, the team’s other two participating freshmen, each grabbed six rebounds and combined for seven points.

This team is as expected thus far—talented but thin. Most will be willing to shake this performance off as preseason jitters and hope that Powell makes a big difference, but Clarke and Fortson (who combined for 7-of-25 shooting) need to improve their efforts if this team wants to make a run for the postseason.

Player of the Game: Michael Washington (25 pts, 10 rbs, 62.5% FG, 3 blks)
Stat of the Game: Arkansas without Washington: 32.7% FG

Florida (95) vs. Saint Leo (46)
Gainesville, Fla., Nov. 2, 2009

Florida came out about as hot as the Vols did, on both ends of the floor. The big story was incoming all-star freshman Kenny Boynton, who led the team with 22 points on 7-of-14 shooting, including 5-of-9 from three, and grabbed six rebounds. Not to be lost was Erving Walker’s nine assists and no turnovers, coupled with 16 points on 5-of-9 shooting.

Florida outshot Saint Leo by 30.3 percent and held them to 4.8 percent shooting from three.

Erik Murphy, the team’s other freshman, had a nice game as well: nine points on 3-of-4 shooting and six rebounds.

If Walker can keep up his impressive team-leading and Boynton remains this dominating, I might just be wrong about Florida. Granted, the competition was weak, but this could mean Florida might very well have a stake in the SEC East title after all.

Player of the Game: Kenny Boynton (22 pts, 6 rbs, 50.0% FG, 55.5% 3PT, 3 stl)
Stat of the Game: Five Florida players with at least five rebounds

No. 4 Kentucky (74) vs. Campbellsville (38)
Lexington, Ky., Nov. 2, 2009

The Wildcats got off to a fast start, holding CU to just 11 points in the first half. There were large stretches in the second half, however, where UK was bogged down and was outscored. For a top-five team, this was a disappointing debut.

While the team shot well (50.0 percent) from the floor, my prediction as to its lack of outside shooting presence rang true (21.4 percent). This team is seriously going to miss Jodie Meeks.

Freshman Darnell Dodson was the star of the game, scoring 19 points on 7-of-14 shooting along with six rebounds.

Turnovers look to be a serious issue for the young team as well, as it handed the ball over 23 times, though it forced 25 CU turnovers.

John Wall is still serving a two-game suspension, while results from the other freshmen were mixed. Behind Dodson’s big game, DeMarcus Cousins pulled down a respectable 11 points and six rebounds and blocked four shots. Eric Bledsoe looks talented if he can limit the turnovers, as he managed nine points, four rebounds, four assists (to four turnovers), and four steals.

Jon Hood and Daniel Orton weren’t as impressive: They combined for seven points on 3-of-7 shooting.

Lots of great pieces to the puzzle, but no glue to make them stick. I hear there’s a brand of Wall Glue being released this month, so stay tuned.

Player of the Game: Darnell Dodson (19 pts, 6 rbs, 50.0% FG, 2 stl)
Stat of the Game: Kentucky’s 3-of-14 (21.4%) three-point shooting

Tabb, who stands 6’4″ and weighs 196lbs, was an extremely talented guard who started 11 games for the Vols last season. He ranked third on the team – and best amongst guards – for field-goal percentage at 50.6 percent and easily led the team with a 42.4 three-point percentage, though he only attempted 33.

He also recorded an impressive 1.7 assists-to-turnover ratio and 24 steals.

Statistically, this reduces Tennessee’s returning scoring to 93.06 percent and keeps them in first place in the league, while they now return 89.66 percent of their rebounding – second, behind Vanderbilt.

More importantly, however, the Vols lose a potential threat from behind the arc and have even less depth in the back-court. Only four guards remain on the team, and none arrive on scholarship.

This might even out the field a bit in the SEC, as Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and even Kentucky seem to have a better shot at toppling the Vols for the league title.

As for the national implications, this severe lack of guard depth might cost the team a deep run in March, as uni-dimensional teams tend not to fare well in the Big Dance.

One thing is for certain: this team can not afford any injuries or suspensions of any kind to any of its guards in 2009-10.

Just three teams made the NCAA Tournament, none of which made the Sweet Sixteen.

My, how a year can change everything.

While the nation was as experienced and talented as it had ever been, the SEC was struggling to reload and patiently waiting for its younger stars to grow into full-bodied threats.

That day has come for several league teams.

“There are eight teams in the league that return four starters,” Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl explained. ”So the league is going to be a lot better and part of the reason is because of returning players. That experience is going to put us in a position to not get too high when we win and not get too low when we lose, because this league is going to beat up on each other and I think the team that handles adversity and handles success the best is the team that is going to win the championship.”

Couldn’t say it better myself.

The most well-known example is Kentucky, who let an embattled Billy Gillispie go after just two seasons at the helm and its first NCAA absence in 15 years. In stepped Memphis’ John Calipari, and an outrageous recruiting class alongside. Returning Second-Team All-American Patrick Patterson plus adding three five-star along with two four-star recruits means high expectations.

High they are indeed. Many publications have ranked Kentucky second pre-season, and all have them in the Top 10. They have been picked overwhelmingly to win the SEC by the media, though much hinges on the NCAA’s verdict of John Wall’s elligibility. Wall, the nation’s top recruit, could make an immediate impact for the Wildcats at point guard.

“We are very big, athletic and fast,” Calipari said. ”We don’t shoot the ball well, and have a lot of room to grow.”

That loss of shooting comes in the form of Jodie Meeks, who bolted to the NBA after leading the team—and the SEC—in scoring. His 23.7 points per game was over 33 percent of Kentucky’s scoring last year and with his loss, the team loses more offensive production than any other team in the league.

Often joining the True Blue in top ten lists across the country are the Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols looked to bring back every single player on its roster before highly talented forward Emmanuel Negedu went down recently to heart trouble. His future with the team looks dim, though the squad’s outlook on this season remains steadfast.

Third-Team All-American Tyler Smith can quite literally do it all, and Kentucky’s amount of talent may be matched, or even exceeded, by the team in orange. The Vols are looking to prove the nation wrong and dethrone the Wildcats.

“As far as our team’s chemistry, we are going to learn from last year to play together,” Pearl stated.

Yet another national contender resides in Starkville, Mississippi. That town endured a wild off-season, as Fourth-Team All-American Jarvis Varnado—who should become the nation’s leading shot-blocker of all time this season—chose to return to the team. Then, a couple of high-profile recruits with elligibility issues signed on.

Sidney, who most consider the most talented player in this year’s class, hasn’t received his elligibility yet, former Top Five recruit John Riek has, though he will sit out nine games. Riek is 7’2″ with a much bigger wingspan and should immediately contribute.

The Bulldogs return every starter and lose a few back-ups, mostly to injury. This team is the prohibitive favorite to win a Western Division which it seemingly owns, and could make a run at the league title.

“It is the most experience I have had in a long time and we only have two seniors coming back,” MSU coach Rick Stansbury expressed. ”There is no question that we are better off at this point in the year than we were at this point last year.”

Four other SEC teams have been ranked in the nation’s Top 25 in various preseason selections this season.

Ole Miss has received some increased expectations for a few reasons. Several players, including Second-Team All-SEC point guard Chris Warren, return from season-ending injuries in 2007-08. Much-hyped sophomore Terrico White will look to continue his momentum from last season, as he was selected on the media’s First-Team All-SEC list.

South Carolina returns a great deal of power from last year’s SEC East co-champion team, including star point-guard and First-Team All-SEC selection Devan Downey.

Florida lost its heart and soul in Nick Calathes, but the amount of pure talent and depth on the team should lend itself to a competitive season.

The biggest darkhorse of the 2009-10 season, however, is Vanderbilt. The Commodores return nearly every player from last season and add five-star recruit John Jenkins. With perhaps the league’s most physically talented player in Second-Team All-SEC choice A.J. Ogilvy and two players in Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley who compete with the conference’s best at their respective positions, this team is set to compete for the overall SEC title.

No surprise, then, that the league coaches have high expectations for themselves and their competition.

“I am excited about where the league is,” Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said. ”I think from a balanced stand point it is as strong as it has been in quite some time and our marquis players are back. The top of the league is going to be where I believe we are going to have three, four, five teams in the top 25 week in and week out. I think there is a buzz in the league and rightfully so.”

ALABAMA

Last Year : 18-14, 7-9 (Nationally: #95 )
Postseason : None
Returning : 69.67% of scoring (6th), 66.02% of rebounding (10th)

The Crimson Tide return a great deal of talent, and a solid recruiting class. The team does, however, lose a lot of offense which could hurt, considering it ranked near the bottom of the league in points scored a year ago. If Grant can find some reliable shooters to complement talented big-man JaMychal Green, they could challenge Ole Miss for second place in the Western Division and a post-season appearance.

Prediction : (18-12, 7-9), No Postseason

ARKANSAS

Last Year : 14-16, 2-14 (Nationally: #126 )
Postseason : None
Returning : 84.63% of scoring (4th), 77.66% of rebounding (5th)

The Razorbacks will struggle again this year due only to their severe lack of depth. Washington, Clarke and Fortson each are among the most talented at their respective positions, but there simply isn’t much below them. Word is that Welsh is suspended indefintiely, and Sanchez is out indefinitely with foot issues. That leaves the team with four non-freshman players. The freshmen will need to step up in a big way, and expect at least Marshawn Powell too—he’s already impressing the coaches—if the team is to improve upon their utter collapse last season.

Prediction : (15-16, 6-10), No Postseason

AUBURN

Last Year : 24-12, 10-6 (Nationally: #55 )
Postseason : NIT Quarterfinals
Returning : 61.60% of scoring (10th), 49.33% of rebounding (11th)

Lebo saved his job a year ago by making the NIT Quarterfinals. This season, he won’t be so lucky. The Tigers lose three of the league’s most talented players, including highly-underrated big-man Korvotney Barber, and bring in a sub-par recruiting class. Expect the War Eagle to retain its spot at the bottom of the SEC West and be looking for a new head coach next off-season.

Prediction : (13-18, 3-13), No Postseason

FLORIDA

Last Year : 25-11, 9-7 (Nationally: #42 )
Postseason : NIT Quarterfinals
Returning : 63.63% of scoring (8th), 73.80% of rebounding (7th)

With the loss of Nick Calathes to the Greecian professional leagues, along with the graduation of Walter Hodge, a true team-leader and decision-maker needs to step up. Florida is always immensely talented, but Calathes was the heart and soul of this team and the Gators will miss him badly. If a player steps into that leadership role, Florida might be able to make a step up into the Big Dance.

Prediction : (20-10, 10-6), NCAA Tournament

GEORGIA

Last Year : 12-20, 3-13 (Nationally: #200 )
Postseason : No Postseason
Returning : 62.21% of scoring (9th), 68.92% of rebounding (9th)

Losing two starters—including the squad’s top scorer—is a hit for any basketball team. Moreso for one struggling like Georgia is. Former Nevada skipper Mark Fox inherits a bad situation in Athens with no immediate promise for improvement. This season is certainly one of rebuilding and restructuring, as anything but last place in the conference would be a miracle.

Prediction : (10-19, 3-13), No Postseason

KENTUCKY

Last Year : 22-14, 8-8 (Nationally: #52 )
Postseason : NIT Quarterfinals
Returning : 56.95% of scoring (11th), 75.76% of rebounding (6th)

Kentucky loses offensive juggernaut Jodie Meeks, and despite what the talking heads say, they will suffer because of it. The Blue bring in one of the greatest recruiting classes of all time, but none of those players are known for explosive offensive potential. The entire offense can’t rest on the shoulders of the frontcourt, much less only All-SEC star Patrick Patterson. This team will struggle at times offensively and is far too imbalanced to warrant their sky-high expectations. An NCAA Tournament bid is probable, a Final Four run is not.

Prediction : (21-9, 10-6), NCAA Tournament

LSU

Last Year : 27-8, 13-3 (Nationally: #43 )
Postseason : NCAA Second Round
Returning : 41.61% of scoring (12th), 36.17% of rebounding (12th)

Trent Johnson has proven he can coach (no word yet on his teams’ motivation, though). He will manage to upset some teams this season, but the Tigers lose six scholarship athletes and are going to be awfully young. This may be a reloading year for LSU, but don’t expect it to last very long. Don’t count me surprised if the Tigers manage to heavily overachieve and receive an invitation to the postseason.

Prediction : (13-14, 4-12), No Postseason

MISSISSIPPI STATE

Last Year : 23-13, 9-7 (Nationally: #61 )
Postseason : NCAA First Round
Returning : 90.85% of scoring (3rd), 86.53% of rebounding (4th)

The Bulldogs caught on fire toward the end of last season, winning their last six games (including an SEC Tournament title) before bowing out in the NCAA Tournament to Washington. The SEC West mainstay returns nearly every player and adds at least one former five-star recruit and is immensely talented and deep. This team could make some serious noise in March.

Prediction : (24-6, 12-4), NCAA Tournament

OLE MISS

Last Year : 16-15, 7-9 (Nationally: #97 )
Postseason : No Postseason
Returning : 65.93% of scoring (7th), 69.40% of rebounding (8th)

Andy Kennedy struggled with off-the-court issues last season and loses his top scorer, but return a talented core of players from injury. The Rebels join the Gators as one of the biggest question-marks in the league. If star point guard Chris Warren can return to form after a serious knee injury and the team can find enough front-court depth to suffice, it could challenge for an NCAA bid.

Prediction : (18-10, 8-8), NIT

SOUTH CAROLINA

Last Year : 21-10, 10-6 (Nationally: #68 )
Postseason : NIT First Round
Returning : 77.61% of scoring (5th), 87.94% of rebounding (3rd)

Darrin Horn underachieved last season in a weak SEC, despite a postseason bid and a SEC East co-title. With the sudden strengthening of the league, particularly the East, things just get harder from here. The Gamecocks don’t have the talent or depth to keep up in the East, and could struggle this year. An NCAA Tournament bid isn’t out of the question, but would be an impressive achievement.

Prediction : (16-12, 7-9), No Postseason

TENNESSEE

Last Year : 21-13, 10-6 (Nationally: #31 )
Postseason : NCAA First Round
Returning : 97.30% of scoring (1st), 94.50% of rebounding (1st)

The Volunteers look to be loaded for another chance at a Final Four run. There are, though, some weaknesses that became apparent last season. The team has little depth a the point-guard position, and struggles from outside the arc as well as on defense. That said, the Orange are one of the league’s most talented and deepest teams. If Pearl can find some shooters and get his team to play hard on both ends of the court, this could be a National Title contender.

Prediction : (24-4, 13-3), NCAA Tournament

VANDERBILT

Last Year : 19-12, 8-8 (Nationally: #77 )
Postseason : No Postseason
Returning : 92.58% of scoring (2nd), 92.25% of rebounding (2nd)

If you’re looking for an SEC dark-horse, look no further. The Commodores return every important piece of their squad, including outstandingly talented big-man A.J. Ogilvy. Added to the mix is five-star recruit John Jenkins, who will add some firepower to the team’s offense. With this amount of talent and experience, expect the ‘Dores to challenge for the SEC and push its way well into March.

Prediction : (22-6, 12-4), NCAA Tournament

Now, as for the conference predictions…

SEC EAST

1. Tennessee – 24-4, 13-3

2. Vanderbilt – 22-6, 12-4

t3. Kentucky – 21-9, 10-6

t3. Florida – 20-10, 10-6

5. South Carolina – 16-12, 7-9

6. Georgia – 10-19, 3-13

SEC WEST

1. Mississippi State – 24-6, 12-4

2. Ole Miss – 18-10, 8-8

3. Alabama – 18-12, 7-9

4. Arkansas – 15-16, 6-10

5. LSU – 13-14, 4-12

6. Auburn – 13-18, 3-13

And on to the 2009-10 SEC Pre-Season Awards…

SEC Pre-Season Awards

SEC Player of the Year: Jarvis Varnado (Mississippi State)

While this may be an unpopular pick, no one in the conference alters the game as much as Varnado. His offense is underrated, as he shoots 54.9 percent from the floor as it is, and should only increase this season. His rebounding is nearly untouched in the league, and he should break the national career blocking record this season.

SEC Coach of the Year: Kevin Stallings (Vanderbilt)

The Commodores enter the season with not nearly as much hype as they deserve. Expect them to be one of the toughest teams in the league and challenge for an Elite Eight spot when it’s all said and done.

SEC Freshman of the Year: John Wall (Kentucky)

Assuming he becomes elligible to play, Wall should have an immediate impact for Kentucky. The Wildcats desperately need his decision-making and ball-handling to become competitive once again.

All-SEC First Team

Jarvis Varnado (Mississippi State)
Patrick Patterson (Kentucky)
Tyler Smith (Tennessee)
A.J. Ogilvy (Vanderbilt)
Chris Warren (Ole Miss)

All-SEC Second-Team

Michael Washington (Arkansas)
Rotnei Clarke (Arkansas)
Tasmin Mitchell (LSU)
Wayne Chism (Tennessee)
Alex Tyus (Florida)

Non-Conference Viewing Guide

Arkansas vs. Louisville (Tue, Nov. 17)
Florida vs. Michigan St. (Fri, Nov. 27)
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri (Wed, Dec. 2)
Kentucky vs. North Carolina (Sat, Dec. 5)
South Carolina @ Clemson (Sun, Dec. 6)
Vanderbilt vs. Illinois (Tues, Dec. 8)
Kentucky vs. UConn (Wed, Dec. 9)
Florida vs. Syracuse (Thu, Dec. 10)
Mississippi St. vs. UCLA (Sat, Dec. 12)
Alabama vs. Purdue (Sat, Dec. 12)
Auburn @ Florida St. (Thu, Dec. 17)
LSU @ Washington St. (Tue, Dec. 22)
Ole Miss @ West Virginia (Wed, Dec. 23)
LSU @ Xavier (Tue, Dec. 29)
South Carolina @ Boston College (Wed, Dec. 30)
Tennessee @ Memphis (Thu, Dec. 31)
Georgia @ Missouri (Sat, Jan. 2)
South Carolina vs. Baylor (Sat, Jan. 2)
Kentucky vs. Louisville (Sat, Jan. 2)
Mississippi St. @ Western Kentucky (Mon, Jan. 4)
Arkansas vs. Texas (Tue, Jan. 5)
Tennessee vs. Kansas (Sun, Jan. 10)
Florida vs. Xavier (Sat, Feb. 13)